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Updates Situation in SeverodonetskHUGE numbers of troops from both sidesArtillery war“Road of life” from Bakhmut to Severodonetsk has 1km clearance from Popansa salient and has been a huge fight -- if it goes down, UKR at risk of losing >10k troops in that pocketAmmo situationUkraine out of Soviet ammo; now fully on NATO100% dependent on Western shipments Would have literally run out of ammo without that support -- possible insight into why Russia thought it could win DonbassUKR National Guard troops who are basically there to eat shells and prevent a breakout are losing moraleRussia has blown up the bridge between Severdonetsk and Lysychansk -- this is a major problem for the troops in Severodonetsk, but they could in theory make a river crossing“US General says Elon Musk’s Starlink has totally destroyed Russia’s information campaign” UKR seriously needs more heavy guns -- especially artillery. Losing 100-200 troops/day (to death; likely 500/day to wounds), mostly to artillery OVERALL: Game’s far from over, as it turns out. Ukraine could totally win, Russia could totally win. My past assessments didn’t take ammo into account. Turns out the Russians just have a ton of old ammo they’re willing to use indiscriminately. Ukrainians are low on it. Ukraine has the will and skill and people to win if it’s supplied. The crazy situation and bold strategy in East Donbass Zelensky correctly called that Russia was so obsessed with getting a symbolic victory in completing the “liberation” of the Luhansk oblast, that it would pour everything into urban warfare to pull it off. Putin has his own obsessions, but also has to demonstrate progress on the current stated aims of the war -- liberation of those two provinces. So they’re throwing everything they can at Severodonetsk. Russia is not good at urban warfare. Most assaults, everywhere, are getting repelled (and when that happens, it means Russia lost a lot of troops, stuff).  BUT -- and big BUT here -- Ukraine is out of Soviet ammo. Which means a whole shitload of their artillery just went silent. Fully dependent on NATO sending even more, which seems to be a slow thing. And would love to have heavy armor, but NATO is against it. Ukraine has to do an artillery duel with a massive (at least 10:1) disadvantage, trying to use superior intelligence and western radar to precision-target Russian artillery and take it out, bit by bit. Long work, lots of ammo. Need more ammo.  Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

First, war update: Mariupol fell after 2.5 months of truly insane holding out. Gosh dang. 1900 surrendered and there is a POW complication that I”m not going to get intoUkraine has mostly booted Russia out of Kharkiv, though there is still some fighting and the Russians have not given it up entirely the way they did Kyiv/Sumy/etc, so there’s no obvious way to free up those troops for UkraineRussians trying really hard to cross the Siversky Donets river by pontoon, in order to encircle Ukraine’s core defense force in the Donbass (largely around a city called Severodonetsk and one called Lysychansk). It seems at least twice the Ukrainians knocked out entire BTGs trying to make that crossing, which is incredible.https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1528116469619367940Apparently Russia is generally short of pontoon type equipment…but Russia has a breakout of sorts, actually right in the northern part of the original Donbass battle lines, through a town called Popansa. TONS of troops moving through thereIt’s both a breakout……and a salient, which means significant risk for them. Somewhat exposed.Ukrainians are pretty good at mobile defenseJust not at all clear if they are running in open space (and just taking time to stage properly) or if they are running against really significant resistance at this pointThe original breakthrough at Izium seems to have stalled entirelyRussian troops also massed on the western side of the Siversky Donets (the northern part) to prevent the Ukrainian counter-attack there from threatening the supply lines and etc to Izium -- if that happened it’d be a total disaster(Ukrainians had temporarily broken across the river but had to withdraw)Russian tactics seem to be: just unload with artillery for days and days, then attempt an assaultUsually failBut rinse, lather, repeat, and you get some breakthroughsRussians seem to be planning to do this in the south, north of KhersonRussia may be running out of dronesWill hurt reconDomestic manufacturing capacity limited so they can’t build ‘emThings are moving SLOW, and will continue to do so IF the Popansa breakthrough is containedOK so how does this end? Well here’s where Russia blew it big time. The Ukrainians believe they can win. Russians could have had a settlement where they get Donbass and likely even Crimea as concessions. Now the Ukrainians believe they can win, and want to win. Ukrainians are also just full of morale, manpower, and money. -Zelenskyy says 700k soldiers now fighting for Ukraine -- 3x those of Russia. Can definitely win a war of attrition -Ukraine just got $40B promised from the US, and the G7 promised another $38B Russia on the other hand is having trouble manufacturing new weapons, and is losing tons of money from sanctions and withdrawals -- 45% of its GDP was made up from sales and operations from the companies that left Russia (which doesn’t, I think, mean a 45% GDP contraction, but it means a lot). So there’s just an economic slowdown generally, and a lack of ability to manufacture advanced weapons. Russia depends more and more on tube artillery, so it’s just blasting the Donbass to hell. And for Russia? See the full notes at ReconsiderMedia.com Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

What happens when you start really believing your own b******t? What happens when you’ve created a yes-man bubble where everyone only tells you what you want to hear? First a war update: Russia’s focus on the east and Donbass, which started a month ago, has made a bit of progress in a few places, but is now pretty stalledThey do seem to be regrouping from Mariupol, but they’ve also been going into a meat-grinderUkraine has made marginal advances towards Kherson and away from KharkivSOMEHOW, Mariupol’s troops still stand in the Azovstal steel plant despite months of constant bombings and stormings -- there’s really nothing like it in modern military history (Alamo has absolutely nothing on it, not even a tiny bit close)It REALLY seems like the vast majority of Russian attempts to advance are getting repelled, and that is going to grind them down and make them combat-ineffective…and now Ukraine is getting tons of heavy weapons:TanksBig, advanced howitzersRadar systems to aim at Russian artilleryRocket artilleryDronesThis is going to help them dislodge low-morale Russian troops and drive offensives Visit ReConsiderMedia.com Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

The Russians are hoping to encircle Ukraine's defensive lines in the Donbass. If they do, they might be able to declare victory. The Ukrainians are racing east, not only to defend their territory, but might just also be able to counter-attack. Let's break it down. Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

So much has changed over the past month -- Ukraine is on the offensive. Kyiv is safe. The war moves east. Air superiority actually matters more than ever. Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

On this episode, Erik interviews Lindsay Graham of American History Tellers and History Daily. They talk about the similarities and differences between today's political and economic climate and that of the Civil War and the Gilded Age. Support ReConsider on Patreon Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

The war should have been short and decisive. And as it drags out, Russia looks ever-more inept. What's wrong with its military? What's wrong with its chain of command? Will its economy collapse? Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

While this war is far from over... well, it's far from over! And nobody expected that. In this episode we talk about why Ukraine is winning, what it could mean for Russia and the world if they do win, and how warfare is changing as we watch it unfold. Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Erik explains why Russia is invading Ukraine, what their war aims are, what the West is doing, how geopolitics plays into all of this, and a little bit of what might happen next. Get a little sanity of clarity amidst the livestream chaos. Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

"Another cause which kept the plebeians in as state of poverty was the unjust distribution of the public land (ager publicus) which had been acquired in war..." William C. Morey, Outline of Roman History The Optimates: Represented the Elites in the run-up to, and the middle of, the Roman Civil Wars Believe the mob wasn’t really fit to rule, wanted to rule for them Also represented special interests who benefited personally from a lot of laws that led to unsustainable economic conditions -- such as the (not) Lex Agraria (Lex Agraria: redistribution due to the landlessness of soldiers during the Punic Wars) Who are the Optimates Today? We might think they’re just the rich, or megacorporations (or sometimes, lobbyists). Those are certainly Optimates, but we forget that those with Special Interests are everywhere. See the full show notes at ReConsider Media Support the show by becoming a Patron Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Antiwork had a really bad day Source Article “Laziness is a virtue in this society” - r/antiwork moderator https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20220126-the-rise-of-the-anti-work-movement “Supporters of the anti-work movement believe people should self-organise and labour only as much as needed, rather than working longer hours to create excess capital or goods.” USA is a tough crowd for this kind of pitch. See: bad branding. What does Antiwork stand for? Many people tried to give Erik the answer… and many were different -Worker’s rights / labor unions -Economic inequality -Surplus Value -Same standard of living for fewer hours -4-day week -Abolishing capitalism -etc Antiwork freaks out https://www.reddit.com/r/antiwork/comments/se7b86/how_do_you_fuck_up_this_bad/ https://www.reddit.com/r/antiwork/comments/se59eu/can_be_overworked_to_exhaustion_if_you_sleep_on/  https://www.reddit.com/r/antiwork/comments/se4gfp/based_af/  https://www.reddit.com/r/antiwork/comments/se418m/i_didnt_think_this_sub_was_literally_antiwork/  https://www.reddit.com/r/antiwork/comments/se4nf9/mods_are_trash/  https://www.reddit.com/r/antiwork/comments/se5cit/im_glad_the_21_year_old_mod_has_the_funds_to_be/  https://www.reddit.com/r/antiwork/comments/se3v15/does_anyone_think_we_would_better_off_with_a/  An interesting conversation with my friend Austin You have to stand for something if you want a movement… not just against See: Civil Rights See: Gay Marriage See: Women’s Suffrage Other problems: Tea party rise-and-fallOccupy Wall StreetBLM This applies to our Revolutions episode, too -- being against something is only a short-term uniter. Join the ReConsider Patreon Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

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