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In this unscripted episode of Deep Economic Thoughts, Ivan Illán breaks down a structural shift quietly unfolding across global debt markets: the unwind of the traditional "risk-free rate" premise. Despite low equity market volatility and tight credit spreads, sovereign debt issuance across advanced economies is expanding at an unsustainable pace. With gross OECD sovereign new borrowing reaching roughly $18 trillion in 2026 and over 80% of developed market issuance dedicated strictly to debt rollover, structural primary budget deficits of 5% to 7% of GDP have become the new baseline—even outside of recessionary periods. Key Topics Covered in This Episode: The Fiscal Dominance Trap: Why COVID-era promises of fiscal discipline dissolved into structural spending on defence, energy transitions, and industrial subsidies. The 80% Debt Rollover Problem: How massive debt refinancing at 4%–5%+ yields is causing national interest service costs to consume an unprecedented percentage of government revenues. Shift in Bond Buyers: The transition from price-insensitive balance sheets (central bank QT and foreign reserve holders) to price-sensitive domestic and leveraged capital demanding higher term premiums. Portfolio Allocations & Active Fixed Income: Why passive 60/40 strategies face structural pressure, and how fixed income investors must evaluate duration, credit risk, and maturity schedules in a regime of higher long-term real yields. For more information, please visit: https://linktr.ee/awaim Resources & Contact: Submit questions or suggest future topics: www.alignewealth.com / www.awaim.hk Subscribe for more deep economic commentary. Copyright ©2026, AWAIM® & AWAIM® (HK) LIMITED Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions. AWAIM® (HK) LIMITED 瞻盛財富有限公司 Central Entity No.: BWA579 Licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) to conduct Type 9 (Asset Management) regulated activity. For Type 9 regulated activity, the licensee shall only carry on a business in the management of: i. discretionary accounts; and ii.collective investment schemes that are offered to professional investors only. The terms "collective investment scheme" and "professional investor" are defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance and its subsidiary legislation (where applicable). The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated. AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

Wall Street's perfect AI exit strategy. Everyone is screaming "buy" on everything AI and Nvidia-adjacent. But here's what they aren't telling you: The IPO window is wide open for one reason only—to let insiders cash out. In today's episode, we connect the dots between the AI hype machine, the surge in tech filings, and the quiet exodus of early investors. Don't let bankers use your capital to fund their liquidity event. Tune in to learn how to spot the difference between a real opportunity and a euphoria-driven trap. #AI #Nvidia #IPO #Investing #WallStreet #RetailInvestors #TechStocks #Podcast For more information, please visit: https://linktr.ee/awaim Copyright ©2026, AWAIM® & AWAIM® (HK) LIMITED Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions. AWAIM® (HK) LIMITED 瞻盛財富有限公司 Central Entity No.: BWA579 Licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) to conduct Type 9 (Asset Management) regulated activity. For Type 9 regulated activity, the licensee shall only carry on a business in the management of: i. discretionary accounts; and ii.collective investment schemes that are offered to professional investors only. The terms "collective investment scheme" and "professional investor" are defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance and its subsidiary legislation (where applicable). The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated. AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

Recorded from Hong Kong, this episode is a personal reflection on a major milestone: the 2025 expansion of our asset management company from its SEC-regulated base in Los Angeles to a new SFC-regulated entity in Asia. Marking nearly 30 years in investment management (since 1996), this move is a strategic step to enrich our research mosaic. We discuss why being physically present in a major financial hub, adjacent to the world's second-largest economy, is about more than data—it's about accessing qualitative insights, conversations, and perspectives that charts alone can't provide. We delve into our disciplined research framework: the vital importance of asking the right questions, the irreplaceable value of face-to-face professional networking (like CFA societies), and how our global team synthesizes this into weekly investment committee decisions. The conversation culminates in a direct and passionate challenge to Financial Advisors using TAMPs (Turnkey Asset Management Platforms). Compliance is not enough. True fiduciary duty requires advisors to become experts on their TAMP's process—to question portfolio managers, understand the investment philosophy deeply, and never settle for an "adequate" solution. It's a call to elevate the standard of due diligence for the ultimate benefit of the client. Key Topics Covered: The strategic "why" behind expanding from Los Angeles to Hong Kong. Building a research "mosaic": Combining global data with on-the-ground qualitative insight. The discipline of a formal, evolving investment committee process. A 30-year perspective on active risk management and alpha generation. A Critical Challenge: Why Financial Advisors must go beyond surface-level TAMP usage and become true students of their investment partners. Listen for: An authentic take on global finance, research philosophy, and a compelling call to action for advisors who want to deepen their practice and uphold the highest standard of client trust. For more information, please visit: https://linktr.ee/awaim Copyright ©2026, AWAIM® & AWAIM® (HK) LIMITED Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions. AWAIM® (HK) LIMITED 瞻盛財富有限公司 Central Entity No.: BWA579 Licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) to conduct Type 9 (Asset Management) regulated activity. For Type 9 regulated activity, the licensee shall only carry on a business in the management of: i. discretionary accounts; and ii.collective investment schemes that are offered to professional investors only. The terms "collective investment scheme" and "professional investor" are defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance and its subsidiary legislation (where applicable). The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated. AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

In this episode, Ivan Illan, AIF, CFS, Founder & Chief Investment Officer at AWAIM shares the US employment chnages underway. Demographics and changing company financials are driving seismic shifts in how the US labor force experiences employment opportunities. For more research highlights, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/blog Copyright © 2025, AWAIM® Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions. The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated. AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

Even though Trump's tariffs on China are meant to place pain and pressure on their economy, it appears that China is navigating US tariffs deftly. China's exports to other regions around the world have markedly increased, which has effectively offset the huge exports declines to the US. For more research highlights, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/blog Copyright © 2025, AWAIM® Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions. The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated. AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

Ivan Illan, Founder & Chief Investment Officer, discusses the historical relationship dynamic demonstrated by a falling US Dollar value and the resulting impact on U.S. and non-U.S. stock markets. Specifically, he focuses on the decade from 2005 to 2015, which was marked by the Great Financial Crisis and a USD value that oscillated wildly from -15% to +19%. For details on the Research Highlight discusseed in this podcast visit, https://www.alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-03-26-2025 For more general information, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/ Copyright ©2025, AWAIM® Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions. The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated. AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

Ivan Illan, Founder & Chief Investment Officer, AWAIM was a special guest for the full hour on The Bruce Cook Conversation. Ivan discussed all things economics with Bruce. This is the first segment of four from that radio interview. Original air date: March 8, 2025 at 8PM PT. For more information, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/ Copyright ©2025, AWAIM® Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions. The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated. AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

Founder & CIO at AWAIM, Ivan Illan, joins California Senator Josh Newman on The Conversation with Bruce Cook discussing the condition of California's and the U.S. economy including jobs, deficits, and education. (Original Air Date: October 13, 2024 at 6PM PT on AM830 KLAA) For more information, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/ Copyright © 2024, AWAIM® Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions. The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated. AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

In preparing for my September 2024 Forbes article, I stumbled upon a shocking set of nearly identical, devastating economic statistics regarding the U.S. economy. Graphs and data referenced in this episode comparing the periods of 1975 to 1980 versus 2019 to 2024 can be found at: https://www.alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-09-04-2024 For more information, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/ Copyright © 2024, AWAIM® Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions. The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated. AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

As discussed in detail last summer (see Research Highlights and Forbes article), comparing the Earnings Yield on stocks (using the S&P 500 Cyclically Adjusted Earnings Yield [CAEY]) to the Risk-Free Yields on U.S. Treasury Bonds can have an elucidating effect on an investor's favor towards equities or away from them. Recall that Earnings Yield is equal to Earnings Per Share divided by its Stock Share Price. By simply inverting the Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio, you attain the Earnings Yield, which standardizes a stock's attractiveness as a cash flow instrument (typically stocks are bought for capital growth or dividend yield or some combination thereof) relative to other cash flows instruments (typically bonds for fixed income purposes). Updated Research Highlight with data referenced in this episode found at: https://www.alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-08-07-2024 Copyright © 2024 Ivan Illan, AWAIM®

In this month's episode, Ivan Illan, Founder & CIO at AWAIM®, explores the dichotomy of two segments of the capital markets - U.S. high yield bonds and U.S. small cap stocks. Both of these segments are predominantly charaterized by below investment grade credit ratings and typically demonstrate high price correlations. However, the past few years have not held this relationship. Ivan examines what may be driving this valuation differential, and what that may mean for risk assessment on a forward-looking basis. For more information on this subject, please visit the charts referenced in this episode at https://www.alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-07-03-2024 Copyright © 2024, AWAIM®

The past few days have been hard on A.I. stocks, which until now have been driven higher and higher by the widespread A.I. euphoria. In this episode, I discuss a recent Working Paper (published May 2024) from the National Bureau of Economic Research that shares a more modest projection on the impact of A.I. in total factor productivity over the next 10 years. For more information on this Working Paper, please visit NBER at: https://www.nber.org/papers/w32487 For more information on AWAIM®, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/ Copyright © 2024, AWAIM®

For roughly two years, the U.S. economy has been undermined by a challenging dynamic - a yield curve inversion. Not to be ignored, when short-term interest rates are much higher that long-term interest rates, investor and lender behavior modulates accordingly. If this dynamic persists too long, unintended consequences become manifest across marketplace participants. To view the companion chart to this episode, please visit: alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-05-01-2024 For more information on our economic outlook or to submit your questions, please visit: alignewealth.com Copyright ©2024, AWAIM®. All rights reserved.

The Buffett Indicator (or Ratio) is a simple formula often referenced by famed investor Warren Buffett. It's simply, Total U.S. Stock Market Capitalization / U.S. GDP. The idea is basically higher ratios infer overvalued markets, while lower ratios may indicate stocks are broadly undervalued. Currently, this ratio stands at 186%. However, what if you applied this formula to specific sectors to discern whether that particular market segment is overvalued or undervalued relative to one another? That's the premise of this episode, where the data and charts related to its discussion can be found on our website's Research Highlights at https://www.alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-04-09-2024 For more information or to submit your questions, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/ Copyright ©2024, AWAIM®. All rights reserved.

Ivan Illan, Founder & Chief Investment Officer at AWAIM® shares a conversational-style review of a recent research highlight published on the firm's website discussing U.S. credit card delinquency and other correlated metrics such as household savings, debt levels, and interest rate on credit cards. This discussion focuses on the confluence of these metrics to illustrate an increasingly stressed out economy and labor market. For more information, charts, and data on this subject, please visit https://www.alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-03-06-2024 © 2024 AWAIM® AWAIM Website: https://www.alignewealth.com/