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Shownotes The United States withdrew from Iraq on September 30 at the request of the sovereign Iraqi government. It was the second time that the US has ended a war in Iraq since the 2003 invasion. The pullout — necessary and overdue — won’t bring much relief for Iraq, which is buckling under pressure from America’s latest war, against Iran, and the pressure cooker of militias that operate beyond state control. On this episode of the Order from Ashes podcast two authorities on Iraq and Afghanistan assess how America has gone about ending its forever wars. Fotini Christia is a political scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and has done fieldwork in both countries. Sajad Jiyad is a fellow at the Center for International policy based in Baghdad. In ending some of its wars while starting others, has the US created conditions for future conflict and power vacuums, adding to the harms caused during its wars and occupations? Is there a better way to leave, or should we expect the end of US wars to be as messy as their onset? In what condition are the states that emerged from US occupation in Iraq and Afghanistan? Guests Fotini Christia is a political scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Sajad Jiyad is a senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International policy based in Baghdad. Hosts Rohan Advani is a non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy and a junior research fellow at the Crown Center for Middle East Studies at Brandeis University. Thanassis Cambanis is vice president for research at the Center for International Policy. Date: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 120

Shownotes A dangerous, and entirely voluntary knowledge gap undermines U.S. policy. The government repeats some mistakes over and over – either oblivious to the results, or hard at work ignoring the damning evidence. Fiascos like the ongoing American war on Iran build on previous atrocities, including the American invasion of Iraq in 2003. Critical research and new knowledge are a necessary first step to end impunity and adopt an American foreign policy centered on justice, rights, and peace. How can researchers tip the balance? On this episode of Order from Ashes, we talk with the leaders of the Center for International Policy, Executive Vice President Matt Duss and President Nancy Okail, about the urgent need for research that radically reframes policymaking. Related reading “CIP Research Brings Fresh Ideas to Fight Bad Policy,” Center for International Policy, September 1, 2026 Participants Matt Duss is executive vice president at the Center for International Policy. Nancy Okail is a president of the Center for International Policy.. Thanassis Cambanis is vice president for research at the Center for International Policy. Date: September 30, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 119

Shownotes Serious research asks open-ended questions, and often produces insight but no clear answers. Every now and then, however, good-faith research hits the jackpot. That’s what happened when Century International fellow Peter Salisbury assembled a team that asked a deceptively simple question: how do Yemen’s Houthi rebels smuggle parts and build drones? The answer is a blockbuster research project that changes our understanding of the current war with Iran, and resoundingly demonstrates to policymakers that no amount of war can put the genie of modern arms supply chains back in the bottle. While the United States and its partners rely on brittle legacy strategies—billion-dollar weapons deals and unachievable plans to bomb enemies into total submission—those same adversaries are deftly adapting their ways of war to the modern global economy.  On this episode of Order from Ashes, Peter shares how his team tackled a question about Iran’s drone network and followed their research to its logical, and global, implications. No amount of war can solve political problems or eliminate states and state-supported movements, but Peter’s research suggests some steps that modern states must take if they want to operate in the modern globalized war economy.  “Beyond the Axis” will change your reading of today’s war and peace negotiations in the Middle East—and for much longer than that, will shape your perspective on the unstoppable, creative process by which militants and militant states are able to compete with vastly better-resourced powers. Related Reading Report, “Beyond the Axis,” by Peter Salisbury Launch event, “Worldwide Webs of Weapons: Beyond the Axis.” Report, “From Smugglers to Supply Chains: How Yemen’s Houthi Movement Became a Global Threat,” by Peter Salisbury, Henry Thompson, and Veena Ali-Khan.  Participants Peter Salisbury is a fellow at Century International. Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International.  Date: Tuesday, July 7, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 118

Shownotes President Donald Trump launched his full-scale war on Iran in February without an announcement, a clear cause of war, or any declared goals. In similar fashion, the on-and-off hostilities came to some sort of close, for now, with a “memorandum of understanding” announced on June 15.  Six fellows at Century International join Order from Ashes for a first look at the deal. It’s not a peace treaty or even a formal ceasefire. Like much of what passes for diplomacy in recent years, it’s ad hoc, not binding, and includes no enforcement mechanism. If it’s not a real peace deal, what is it? Will Israel keep fighting expansionist wars anyway, or withdraw from Lebanon? How will the wealthy monarchies in the Gulf position themselves now that the war has punctured their branding as a safe haven removed from geopolitics?  Century International’s fellows help make sense of the agreement and what might change short of an outright, lasting end to the war. Participants Peter Salisbury is a fellow at Century International. Dahlia Scheindlin is a fellow at Century International. Nicholas Danforth is a fellow at Century International. Frederick Deknatel is a fellow at Century International. Rohan Advani is a fellow at Century International. Sam Heller is a fellow at Century International. Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International.  Date: Wednesday, June 17, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 117

Shownotes Israel’s wars since October 7 have produced a great deal of death, displacement and destruction, but very little security. Nathan Brown, a political scientist and longtime scholar of hte Middle East, has cut through the confusion of recent history with a penetrating and provocative set of eight theses. Drawing on Israeli statements and discourse, he outlined in a recent essay the elements of Israel’s new doctrine. Prior to October 7, Brown argues, Israel used warfare as a means to a political outcome. Today, Israelis plan for war itself to be the end state. On this episode of Order from Ashes, he elaborates on his piercing description of Israel’s new doctrine, and why it’s not likely to produce security or stability for anyone. Readings Nathan Brown, “Rubble is Israel’s Doctrine, Not a Case of Improvisation,” Carnegie Endowment, May 21, 2026. Laura Silver and Laura Clancy, “Most people across 36 countries have negative views of Israel and little confidence in Netanyahu,” Pew Research, June 4, 2026  Participants Nathan J. Brown is professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University and a non-resident senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International.  Date: Wednesday, June 10, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 116

Shownotes The nature of peace talks and conflict resolution has radically changed. Historically, most wars end with political settlements, usually the result of formal negotiations. The prototypical modern peace talks were hosted a major or mid-size power that wasn’t a party to the conflict, negotiated by professional diplomats and technical experts, and implemented with some international oversight by the United Nations or a group of governments. Recent wars have departed from this script. Negotiations these days occur in all manner of venues. There are secret or semisecret talks by unofficial emissaries, sometimes known as “track two diplomacy.” There are official talks managed by tiny powers like Qatar and Oman, all the way to powerful but new players in the peacemaking space, like China. And official superpower diplomacy in the current era looks nothing like the old: today, the US president’s personal lawyer and son in law, with no staff, try to negotiate peace agreements and simultaneously private deals for the Trump Organization. Michael Wahid Hanna has followed many of the peace talks, successful and failed, of recent decades. On this episode of Order from Ashes, he takes stock of how the peace negotiations have changed, and whether we should downgrade our expectations for what diplomacy can  Participants Michael Wahid Hanna is US program director at International Crisis Group. Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International.  Date: Thursday, June 4, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 115

Shownotes After the assassination of its leader in September 2024, Hezbollah sank to its weakest point since its founding in 1982. Supporters began to doubt Hezbollah’s capabilities, and detractors—inside Lebanon and abroad—planned to dismantle the group. In March of this year, Lebanon’s government outlawed Hezbollah’s powerful militia. Many of Hezbollah’s competitors and critics declared the end of the group’s military capability and political base. But Hezbollah’s strength has returned. This spring, as Israel has expanded its occupation of southern Lebanon, Hezbollah has fought effectively. It’s all looking very much like a comeback. Century International fellow Sima Ghaddar has closely tracked Hezbollah’s constituents and power, and shares a granular look at how the group has revived, and how researchers can assess the notoriously opaque organization. Related reading Nathan Brown, “Rubble is Israel’s Doctrine, Not a Case of Improvisation,” Carnegie Endowment, May 21, 2026 Sam Heller, “Trump’s Lebanon Negotiations Are Breaking the Country,” Foreign Policy, May 15, 2026 Sima Ghaddar, “Doubting the Party, Revering Its Ideology: Hezbollah’s Battered Constituencies Reckon with a Year of Loss.”  US Treasury, “Treasury Targets Hizballah-Aligned Officials Obstructing Peace and Disarmament,” May 21, 2026 Mohamad Bazzi, “Is This What War Looks Like Now?” Guardian, April 24, 2026 Participants SIma Ghaddar is a fellow at Century International and a sociologist whose research spans humanitarianism, the politics of international aid, political sociology, and popular mobilization in the Middle East and the Global South. She holds a PhD in Sociology from the University of California, Los Angeles. Her dissertation, “Brokers of the Humanitarian Interface: The Politics of Aid in Lebanon’s Urban Peripheries,” examines humanitarian aid, transnational NGO governance, and the intersections of patronage, clientelism, and global aid systems in Lebanon. She is also a policy researcher specializing in Middle East politics. Her policy research focuses on hybrid armed actors, regional Shia politics, and social movements in Lebanon. Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International.  Date: Tuesday, May 25, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 114

Shownotes After five months of negotiations, Iraq’s power brokers have agreed on a completely unknown compromise candidate for the country’s new prime minister. Ali al-Zaidi, a businessman with no experience in politics or public administration, took over leadership of Iraq on May 14 as the country faces multiple emergencies. Iraq can’t sell its oil because of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and is running out of money to pay salaries. Iraqi militias, beyond the government’s control, have been attacking Saudi Arabia and targets inside Iraq. And Iraq just found out that its supposed ally, the United States, has been covering up the existence of multiple Israeli bases that were operating in the Iraqi desert. Zaidi, perhaps the weakest prime minister to take office since the U.S. invasion in 2003, faces a sovereignty crisis of epic proportions from his first day in office. Sajad Jiyad, Century International’s fellow in Baghdad, analyzes the many challenges for Iraq’s new prime minister. Participants Sajad Jiyad is a fellow at Century International.  Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International.  Date: Tuesday, May 19, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 113

Shownotes The United States has resolved a long debate about its own decline by attacking Iran and failing to achieve any of Washington’s war aims. Winning and losing might not be the most useful paradigm, but for students of global power the war marks a watershed: America can’t simply have its way by force — and pays a price along with the rest of the world for global conflict and economic disruption. Century International fellow Peter Salisbury has been studying complex global supply chains and financial instruments developed for the express purpose of escaping American scrutiny and sanctions. A growing back end of global power and economic activity serves major states, like China, middle powers like Iran, and a large community of economic actors that operate simultaneously in legal and illegal spaces. What does the world look like after America’s self-inflicted defeat in the Iran war? How do power and economics function when states (and others) are free to pursue any goals they want and experiment with blunt force? Participants Peter Salisbury is a fellow at Century International. Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International.  Date: Tuesday, May 12, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 112

Shownotes Mohamad Bazzi was born in southern Lebanon in 1975, and spent his first years in the border town of Bint Jbail. In the half century since, his family’s village has been invaded and destroyed multiple times. Today, Bazzi’s extended family shelters in the far-flung spots where they have sought shelter during the war that began at the end of February, while Bazzi takes stock of what is drearily familiar about the latest round of violence —and what is shockingly new. This latest Israeli war against Lebanon has transgressed the norms of war to an unprecedented degree, with a staggering level of destruction in southern Lebanon. Israeli leaders have proclaimed their intention to depopulate the border area, where more than half a million Lebanese people live. The world has gotten used to a steady stream of war, displacement, and avoidable death in the Middle East, but Bazzi argues that Israel’s war on Lebanon, modeled after Gaza, has crossed a line. The United States and its allies could stop Israel’s wars—and they should. Related reading Mohamad Bazzi, “Is This What War Looks Like Now?” Guardian, April 24, 2026 Participants Mohamad Bazzi is director of the Hagop Kevorkian Center for Near Eastern Studies and a journalism professor at New York University. He is the former Middle East bureau chief at Newsday. Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International.  Date: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 111

Shownotes The Arab monarchies of the Gulf invested colossal wealth to build modern, diversified economic power. But their growing power depended on safety in the Persian Gulf, which in turn depended on an American military umbrella. Now, Trump’s war on Iran has shown just how flimsy that umbrella really is. Still, these cash-rich and economically powerful monarchies retain tremendous influence as a cornerstone of the global economy and the Middle Eastern order. Rohan Advani, a sociologist and Century International fellow, offers a tour of the political economy of Arab monarchies of the Gulf during a period of shifting world order that threatens to reduce their influence.  Gulf wealth can no longer rely on the monarchies’ reputation for absolute peace and security, but will continue to act as a central force. What shifts can we expect in Gulf economic power and security in an era of declining American influence and increasing armed conflict in the Middle East? Participants Rohan Advani is a fellow at Century International. He is writing his doctoral dissertation at the University of California-Los Angeles on the financial tools of state power.. Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International.  Date: Tuesday, April 28, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 110

Shownotes The forever costs of America’s war on Iran could disfigure economic life for generations to come, around the world and in the United States. In an earlier era, war spending helped pull the United States out of the Great Depression by pulling unemployed farmers into the cities and retraining them for manufacturing. Even through the Cold War, many Americans viewed war spending as a major driver of high-quality manufacturing jobs and consumer well-being. The war economy since 9/11 has been different. The wars themselves drive antidemocratic currents and undermine well-being even for people, like most Americans, who are far from the battlefields. These wars also undermine economic life in less obvious ways, like incentivizing endless private sector investment in defense rather than more productive industries. Eamon Kircher-Allen joins Order from Ashes to explain the profound distortions of the modern American war economy. Inflation and a possible recession are only the most immediate economic costs of the Iran war. As the forever wars after 9/11 proved, runaway war spending disfigures every aspect of the economy. The true long-term costs of this war will be much higher than the price of military operations. Related article Commentary: “The Iran War’s Forever Costs Will Far Exceed the Immediate Pain for Consumers,” Century International, by Eamon Kircher-Allen Reports Referenced Report: “The Cold War and the U.S. Labor Market,” National Bureau of Economic Research, by Ilyana Kuziemko, Donato A. Onorato & Suresh Naidu   Joseph Stiglitz, “Structural Transformation, Deep Downturns, and Government Policy” (referenced in the podcast by a one-time working title, “Sectoral Dislocations and Long-Run Crises”), National Bureau of Economic Research working paper no. 23794, September 2017. See also: Joseph Stiglitz et al., “Mobility Constraints, Productivity Trends, and Extended Crises,” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 83 (2012): 375–93. Participants Eamon Kircher-Allen is editor-in-chief at Century International. Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International.  Date: Tuesday, April 21, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 109

Shownotes American policy has not kept up with the punishing realities unleashed by the war President Donald Trump started with Iran.  Iran and the United States announced a truce, even as they’re still fighting to control shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – and more tellingly, Israel accelerated its attacks on Lebanon the day after the truce supposedly took effect. A similar disconnect is at play in the negotiations between two powers with opaque decision-making processes and an apparent high tolerance for ambiguity and instability. Associated Press correspondent Kareem Chehayeb joins Order from Ashes from Lebanon, with a bracing report on the staggering harm to Lebanese society. In the second segment of the podcast, Michael Wahid Hanna from Crisis Group takes stock of the tremendous costs to the world and to the US of Trump’s unjustified war of choice, and what we’ve learned about how the US government is making decisions. Participants Kareem Chehayeb is a correspondent with the Associated Press in Lebanon. Michael Wahid Hanna is the U.S. program director at International Crisis Group. Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International.  Date: Tuesday, April 14, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 108

Shownotes Iraq’s government has maintained friendly relations simultaneously with Iran and the United States. The war launched by President Donald J. Trump at the end of February upended that equilibrium.  Now the United States is directly at war with some Iraqi militias, and the Iraqi state is caught in the middle, too weak to control the militias, too dependent to antagonize either Washington or Tehran.  Century International fellow Sajad Jiyad argues that Iraq will try to revive its precarious middle course once the current phase of the war subsides — but that Iraq’s economy and security will suffer unless it can create a state strong enough to operate independently of Iran and the United States. Participants Sajad Jiyad is the Iraq fellow at Century International. Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International.  Date: Monday, March 23, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 107

Shownotes Is there an off ramp to the war of choice that Israel and the United States initiated at the end of February? The violence has spiraled across the region, directly threatening hundreds of millions of people in the Middle East, and straining the entire global economy. Meanwhile, Israeli officials have publicly floated plans to invade southern Lebanon once more. On this episode of the Order from Ashes podcast we hear from two Century International fellows, Sam Heller in Beirut and Dahlia Scheindlin in Tel Aviv, who provide strategic analysis to contextualize the dizzying cascade of events. With US support, Israel has embraced an approach that it can only achieve security through total war, with no serious consideration of diplomacy and a political resolution with its neighbors, or with Palestinians in occupied territory. That approach won’t produce enduring security for Israel, but will destabilize the entire Middle East and set the region on course for an unresolved cycle of wars. Participants Sam Heller is a Century International fellow in Beirut. Dahlia Scheindlin is a Century International fellow in Tel Aviv. Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International.  Date: Monday, March 16, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 106