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MKP removes SG over communication, administrative breakdowns The MKP has relieved its secretary-general Sibonelo Nomvalo of his duties, appointing Lindiwe Mtshali as the acting secretary-general, effective Thursday. According to a party statement, the decision stems from a series of administrative and communication failures that bypassed the party's top leadership. The party said several critical concerns led to the decision, and noted that these issues compromised organisational coordination, internal communication, accountability, and adherence to party procedures. In a statement, MKP national spokesperson Sifiso Mahlangu pointed to the establishment of high-level deployment committees without the knowledge or approval of relevant party leadership structures. He highlighted significant changes within the Parliamentary caucus and Parliamentary administration that were reportedly not communicated to the president, national officials, or the presidency collective. Mahlangu said there are concerns regarding the councillor selection process, delays in delivering crucial campaign materials, internal factionalism and unresolved matters concerning dual remuneration. To ensure continuity in the coordination, administration, and organisational affairs of the party, the MKP said Mtshali as an acting secretary-general will work closely with national chairperson Mxolisi Phakathi. Mahlangu will retain his national spokesperson role while absorbing additional responsibilities associated with the office of the deputy secretary-general. He will share these administrative functions with Mtshali. The MKP has instructed all national, provincial, regional, and branch structures to note these changes and extend full cooperation to the newly appointed officials.

BOSA envisions merit-based governance, professionalism to rescue collapsing metros As South Africa prepares for the November Local Government Elections, Polity is engaging with political parties contesting the elections in a series of interviews to examine their manifestos, policy priorities and plans for local government. Build One South Africa (BOSA) leader Mmusi Maimane has laid out a stringent, merit-based vision for municipal governance, asserting that the country's collapsing municipalities can only be rescued by technical competence and strict accountability. Speaking with Polity about the party's 2026 local election manifesto, Maimane argued that deep financial literacy and structural reform were the primary requirements for fixing local government. Drawing from his current role in chairing the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Appropriations, Maimane emphasised that understanding public finance was crucial to driving programmatic change. He criticised the track record of politicians currently managing local councils, stating that while they claimed to have experience, it was ultimately an "experience in failing citizens". According to Maimane, current leadership had proven expert only at leaving potholes unrepaired and leaving residents without stable access to water and electricity. In response, BOSA plans to field a fresh cohort of over 800 candidates who are not long-term politicians, but rather professionals drawn from business and local communities. Central to BOSA's strategy is the eradication of political patronage and cadre deployment in favour of community-led selections and rigorous academic evaluations. Maimane admitted that he did not personally know many of the candidates on BOSA's election lists because they were chosen directly by their respective communities. To ensure competence, the party used an assessment system that filtered candidates based on academic qualifications and professional background. Maimane said BOSA had successfully attracted doctors, lawyers, engineers, and teachers. He asserted that public representatives, including Members of Parliament and Ministers, should hold a basic degree to effectively manage the complexities of governance. For the upcoming local government elections, BOSA is targeting key metropolitan areas, specifically Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, and the City of Cape Town, alongside various municipalities in Limpopo and the North West. Despite being a relatively new political player at just four years old, Maimane pointed to BOSA's tangible advocacy successes, such as the party's persistent campaign to lower the fuel levy by R3, as proof of their impact on national and local oversight. Addressing the inevitable reality of coalition governance, Maimane noted that his doctoral research focused explicitly on municipal governance and coalitions. He warned that current coalitions failed because they were built around distributing patronage and dividing up MMC positions among unqualified politicians rather than executing a unified strategy. BOSA's manifesto proposed legally binding coalition agreements anchored by public, time-bound delivery targets. Maimane confirmed that BOSA would absolutely walk away from a coalition if its partners failed to honour these commitments, citing the party's choice to stay out of the Government of National Unity owing to the absence of a tangible, accountable plan. When positioned as a potential kingmaker in hung councils, Maimane outlined non-negotiable red lines for any political alignment. BOSA will refuse to cooperate with corrupt individuals or political parties that leverage racial division and identity politics. Maimane said local government must move past historical fractures to provide "uniform, clean, and ethical" service delivery, ensuring that the quality of infrastructure did not depend on the racial or socioeconomic demographic of a neighbourhood.

Ramaphosa urges business to prioritise youth potential over experience President Cyril Ramaphosa has made a direct appeal to the South African business community to fundamentally change their recruitment habits, urging employers to stop treating a lack of work experience as a lack of capability. Speaking in Johannesburg on Thursday at the SA National Leadership Convening on Youth Employment, the President stressed that the country could no longer exclude young people out of the economy based on "rigid structural demands". "Every young person who wants to work but cannot find employment represents potential that is not being realised. We cannot be content with a society in which so many young people stand outside the gates of economic opportunity, looking in. We must open those gates," Ramaphosa said. Addressing delegates, the President framed youth unemployment as an existential human and social crisis that struck at the core of South Africa's future stability. Rather than viewing the integration of young workers as an act of corporate charity, Ramaphosa challenged executives to see it as a strategic investment in the longevity of the economy. He urged companies to look beyond formal qualifications and historical resumes, adopting instead recruitment models that identified talent, aptitude, determination, and a willingness to learn wherever it was found. "Many young people find themselves caught in a familiar predicament. They cannot get a job because they do not have experience. And they cannot get experience because nobody will give them a job. We must break this cycle," Ramaphosa noted. The President highlighted the specific advantages that younger generations brought to the modern corporate landscape, arguing that their natural creativity, adaptability, and technological fluency were vital assets for businesses navigating rapid transformation. As the global and local economies shifted toward AI, digital innovation, and the green energy transition, young people must be positioned as active drivers rather than passive onlookers, he said. "They must be innovators, entrepreneurs, technicians, researchers, artisans, and business leaders in the industries of the future. We must prepare them not only for the jobs that exist today, but also for the jobs that are yet to be created," Ramaphosa said. While acknowledging that democratic governments had consistently expanded educational access and rolled out multiple skills development and workplace experience programmes, Ramaphosa conceded that the scale of the current crisis proved traditional methods are falling short. "This tells us something important. We cannot solve the challenge of youth unemployment simply by doing more of what we have always done. We must be prepared to do things differently," he said, calling for a collective willingness to dismantle institutional barriers and challenge established corporate practices. To achieve sustainable results, the President called for the same collaborative urgency that had recently driven public-private partnerships in unblocking economic growth and stabilising critical infrastructure. He made it clear that resolving the unemployment crisis was a "shared national responsibility" requiring synchronised action from all sectors of society, calling on government to focus on building an enabling environment for investment, enterprise growth, and fair employment policies. He urged business to commit to expanding productive activities, investing capital, and actively opening workplaces to entry-level talent, while educational institutions needed to aggressively realign their curricula to equip graduates with the exact skills employers required. Ramaphosa called on labour and civil society to work to ensure that newly created opportunities remained inclusive, fair, and accessible to all. He emphasised that young South Africans themselves must remain active participants in shaping their own economic destiny, provided the broader society wa...

Industry, civil society, academia welcome Treasury's fiscal discipline amid weak growth Business organisation Business Leadership South Africa (BLSA) views the 2026 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) as proof that government's fiscal discipline is working. The organisation has welcomed the National Treasury's ensuring that South Africa's government debt decreased despite the US-Israel conflict against Iran having been launched three days after the February Budget. "That discipline is being rewarded: the rand has remained resilient, strengthening and becoming less volatile despite the sharp rise in global oil prices, and the ratings agencies are taking notice. "S&P upgraded South Africa in November 2025, Fitch followed in June 2026, its first upgrade in almost 21 years, and Moody's moved to a positive outlook. BLSA expects further upgrades after these figures, which would lower borrowing costs for government and business alike," highlights BLSA CEO Busisiwe Mavuso. However, BLSA says the core problem remains the slow pace of economic growth as Treasury cut its 2026 forecast to 1.2% and projects 2% growth by 2029. The organisation is encouraged with Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana's endorsement of government's strategy for faster growth and healthier public finances. "BLSA fully supports these goals and will continue to assist government wherever it can in achieving them. "Faster economic growth is the best way to address South Africa's severe unemployment crisis. This is a long-term process, which is why every effort to accelerate delivery matters, especially on structural reforms and infrastructure," Mavuso says. Industry body Business Unity South Africa (Busa) has also acknowledged the continued focus on prudent fiscal management and the responsible stewardship of public finances. "The mini-Budget recognises the underlying fiscal strength and creates room for sustainable increases in expenditure over time. The proposed fiscal anchor, expected to be introduced through legislation in 2027, should strengthen accountability and help ensure that fiscal plans remain consistent and implementable," Busa CEO Khulekani Mathe says. Busa also welcomes the increased emphasis on infrastructure, highlighting that capital assets are the fastest-growing spending category. Meanwhile, industry organisation Consulting Engineers South Africa (Cesa) CEO Chris Campbell has welcomed the measures to strengthen fiscal stability and improve infrastructure delivery but cautions that these interventions will have limited impact unless funding translates into properly planned, completed and functional projects. "Debt stabilisation, the operationalisation of the Infrastructure Finance and Implementation Support Agency, the continued scaled of the Budget Facility for Infrastructure (BFI), progress on the Credit Guarantee Vehicle and the push to expand public-private partnerships in the municipal space are all steps in the right direction," he says. Campbell also notes the importance of capital spending being the fastest-growing component of the Budget, but he argues that more resources need to be directed towards rebuilding South Africa's economic capacity and to ease pressure on households and firms that are struggling under tough conditions. Financial services firms Standard Bank has also commended government's continued commitment to infrastructure development with an infrastructure pipeline of about R217-billion through the Infrastructure Fund and more more than R100-billion in projects approved through the BFI. "Infrastructure projects create opportunities far beyond construction. They can stimulate demand across logistics, professional services, manufacturing, technology and business services, creating avenues for small and medium-sized enterprise growth and job creation," highlights Standard Bank business banking coverage head Umesh Madhav. He adds that the key will be to translate investment commitments into practical opportunities tha...

'Better to under-promise, over-deliver' – ActionSA shifts strategy for local elections As South Africa prepares for the November Local Government Elections, Polity is engaging with political parties contesting the elections in a series of interviews to examine their manifestos, policy priorities and plans for local government. ActionSA will contest only 42 municipalities nationwide in the upcoming local government elections, marking a deliberate pivot toward tactical consolidation. Speaking exclusively with Polity, ActionSA national spokesperson Lerato Ngobeni stated that the party's new approach is driven by lessons learned from the 2024 national elections, where stretching resources across the entire country proved unsustainable. "We saw that in 2024 we really over-stretched ourselves," Ngobeni said. "It's better to under-promise and over-deliver. That is the party's strategy." The restricted focus was decided during a recent strategic session with provincial chairpersons. The party mapped out areas with solid local structures, active "boots on the ground", and enough capacity to deploy critical party agents to monitor voting and counting processes. ActionSA's footprint will remain heavily concentrated where it holds established electoral strength, particularly in Gauteng, where it will contest all metropolitan municipalities. The party is also targeting municipalities across Limpopo, North West, KwaZulu-Natal, and Mpumalanga. Ngobeni highlighted Limpopo as an area of "exponential growth", noting that local leadership successfully motivated to contest specific local and district municipalities based on rising support. Addressing the historical issue of political interference and municipal collapse in South Africa, Ngobeni emphasised ActionSA's candidate selection policy, which allows the party to headhunt external professionals if internal ranks lack the necessary skills. "They do not have to be card-carrying members of ActionSA," Ngobeni explained, adding that professionalising the public service is a core party value. She cited the deployment of the late Chief David Tembe as Public Safety MMC in Johannesburg after 2021, and Dr Nasiphi Moya, who successfully transitioned from a technical official to the Tshwane mayor, as key examples of this ethos. As ActionSA finalises its coalition negotiation framework, Ngobeni explained that the party has established three strict non-negotiable principles for any future political partners. She said partners must be committed to providing services to all residents, irrespective of their political alignment or voting history and that corruption must be treated as "public enemy number one," backed by swift accountability. Ngobeni referenced Tshwane, where ActionSA removed its own MMC within two weeks following an investigation into leaked confidential tender information. Addressing undocumented immigration within the framework of the rule of law is a mandatory requirement, which Ngobeni described as an "existential crisis" for many communities. ActionSA intends to enforce strict key performance areas and performance agreements for political office bearers and municipal officials. Commenting on the recent cholera crisis in Bronkhorstspruit, Ngobeni confirmed that the Tshwane mayor's office has instituted an internal investigation regarding failures in procuring water-treatment chlorine. "An apology is not enough; heads must roll," Ngobeni said, asserting that political partners must not be ambivalent toward incompetence that puts lives at risk. "If people are not meeting their targets, you treat it the same way that you do in a corporate office. You sign a performance agreement, and that performance agreement will be enforced." Read ActionSA's manifesto here

South African inflation rises modestly but bigger fuel-driven jump seen in October South Africa's inflation rate rose modestly in September, data showed on Wednesday, but economists expect a sharper acceleration in October after fuel prices hit a record high. Headline consumer inflation ticked up to 4.5% year-on-year in September from 4.4% in August, moving further away from the central bank's 3% target. The figure was below a 4.7% forecast from economists polled by Reuters. Transport inflation accelerated to 10.8% from 8.8% in August, making it the largest contributor to the rise and accounting for around a third of headline inflation, South Africa's statistics agency said. South Africa imports most of its fuel, leaving it vulnerable to swings in global energy prices. Its regulated petrol price rose about 5% in September before surging 12% in October. ECONOMISTS DIVIDED ON FINAL 2026 RATE DECISION The central bank has raised its policy rate twice since the start of the Iran war, including at its last meeting in September. Economists are divided on what the bank will do in mid-November at its one remaining scheduled meeting of 2026. Nedbank economist Johannes Khosa expects another 25 basis point rate hike as inflation is projected to remain above the central bank's target until at least the last quarter of 2027. Bureau for Economic Research chief economist Lisette IJssel de Schepper said the bank could keep interest rates unchanged as underlying price pressures, reflected in the level of core inflation, are relatively contained. She said October's fuel price increase could push overall inflation above 5% at the next release. Trade unions and some political parties have called for the government to offer fuel price relief, along the lines of the levy reduction between April and June.

R10bn in temporary fuel-levy relief announced amid record fuel prices Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana announced another round of temporary reductions to the fuel levy in response to a surge in fuel prices to record levels, following global disruptions to supply that have arisen after the US and Israel declared war on Iran earlier in the year. The fuel levy for diesel will be reduced by R3 a litre from November 4 to December 1, 2026, while the fuel levy applicable to petrol will be reduced by R1.50 a litre over the same period. The diesel levy will then be reduced by R1.50 a litre and petrol by R1 a litre until January 5, 2027. "These measures will provide R10-billion in support, at a fiscal cost of R10-billion in foregone revenue. "To fund this support, the R10-billion that was transferred to the Central Energy Fund will be returned to the National Revenue Fund to finance this relief," the Minister stated in his Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement speech to lawmakers on Wednesday. Earlier in the year, temporary fuel-levy relief was also introduced between April to June at cost of about R22-billion. The National Treasury has reduced what it expects to collect from the fuel levy in 2026/27 by R30-billion; a figure that takes into account the direct cost of the relief provided, as well as behaviour changes in response to higher fuel prices which is reducing overall consumption. The latest relief measure comes amid record retail prices, with large hikes of above R3 a litre announced for both petrol and diesel in October, after crude oil prices rose to above $100/bl. The decision to extend further relief was based on a cost-benefit analysis that determined that the reduction in the fuel levy would be positive for households, consumption, inflation and growth. Any further relief beyond January 5 would be based on a similar assessment and would take into account the circumstances at the time as well as what space remained to provide relief in a fiscally neutral manner.

National Treasury lowers 2026 growth outlook to 1.2% warns of elevated risks The National Treasury has lowered its growth outlook for 2026 to 1.2% from its 1.6% forecast outlined in the February Budget. In 2025, South Africa achieved growth of 1.1%, once again falling short of levels required to reduce unemployment and poverty. Growth is expected to reach 1.6% in 2027 and rise to 2% by 2029, which remains below the 3% growth target set under the Government-Business Partnership. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana acknowledged in his Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) address on Wednesday that the risks to growth remained elevated. "A prolonged conflict in the Middle East, alongside El Niño and its likely impact on producer costs and output, could further weaken domestic growth," he said. However, he argued that fiscal discipline and a lower inflation target were helping to contain borrowing costs and reduce South Africa's risk premium. While ongoing structural reforms, coupled with the focus on delivering public infrastructure, had the potential to place the economy on a "faster, more sustainable growth trajectory". "If we stay the course, growth could exceed 3% per annum," he asserted. The National Treasury also published three alternative scenarios to its baseline forecast, including: The domestic upside Scenario A, which models a successful implementation of the expanded Operation Vulindlela Phase II reforms, supported by higher public and private investment. This yields real GDP growth of 2.3% by the end of the medium term, compared with 2% in the baseline. Under the scenario, the level of real GDP is 3.1% higher than the baseline by 2034;The domestic upside Scenario B assumes a gradual improvement in the level and quality of public investment spending over the long term, driven by reforms that root out inefficiencies and strengthen collaboration with the private sector. Real GDP growth averages 1.8% over the medium term, compared with 1.6% in the baseline. By 2034, real GDP reaches a level which is 1.6% higher than the baseline; andThe global downside Scenario C, which assumes a re-escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East in the first half of 2027, in line with the downside risk assessment in the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook, with elevated uncertainty persisting throughout the year. Real GDP growth averages 1.5% between 2026 and 2029, compared with 1.6% in the baseline. The National Treasury said in the MTBPS document that the risks to the outlook were tilted to the downside. "A prolonged stalemate or escalation of conflict in the Middle East could keep energy prices high and inflation elevated, while a reassessment of AI investment could tighten global financial conditions. "Domestically, infrastructure bottlenecks, weak confidence and limited fiscal space leave little room to cushion further shocks. "Conversely, a quicker resolution to the war, faster reforms or improved state capability could lift growth above current forecasts," the document states.

South Africa must prepare for potential loss of US trade benefits, Ramaphosa says President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Monday that the country must prepare for its potential exclusion from the United States' duty-free trade initiative, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), as relations between Washington and Pretoria have soured. AGOA gives eligible African countries duty-free access to the US market for thousands of products. South Africa has benefited from it for years. US President Donald Trump's administration has cracked down on South Africa for what Trump claims is its persecution of white people. South Africa's government says this is a falsehood spread by fringe groups. Ramaphosa said it remained to be seen whether South Africa would remain part of AGOA and his government was in discussions with US counterparts. Some US officials have suggested South Africa should be excluded. "I need, as President, to prepare us if it ever happens," Ramaphosa said. He said the impact on jobs would be "devastating" and he and Deputy President Paul Mashatile have been travelling around the world to explore alternative markets. Ramaphosa cited a recent trade agreement with China as a positive step. China introduced a zero-tariff scheme for qualifying South African goods in May.

BofA, BNP see South Africa rating upgrade after budget South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is expected to signal the country's commitment to fiscal discipline on Wednesday, with its debt-to-GDP ratio set to decline for the first time in more than two decades — potentially paving the way for a credit-rating upgrade as soon as next month. Four of 11 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, including those at Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas SA and Old Mutual, anticipate an upgrade by year-end, while the rest see it coming in 2027. Moody's Ratings' and S&P Global Ratings' next reviews are scheduled for November 27, and Fitch Ratings' for December 11. "We view Moody's as the most likely agency to act, with a potential upgrade to Ba1, while an S&P upgrade to BB+ remains a closer call," Tatonga Rusike, BofA's sub-Saharan Africa economist, said. Fitch is in no rush after its upgrade in June, he said. Moody's said last week Africa's largest economy is heading for its first upgrade by the company since 2009, provided its fiscal performance continues to improve. Morgan Stanley expects S&P to raise South Africa's rating to BB+ next month and Moody's in early 2027. Both rating companies have South Africa on positive outlook, and an upgrade by either would lift the country to one notch below investment grade, putting it on the path to exit junk status. Investec Wealth & Investment International sees a greater than 50% chance the country regains its investment-grade credit rating within two years and BofA expects it to do so before 2029. Rating companies will need evidence of "a durable improvement in fiscal metrics, including lower deficits, falling government debt and firmer trend growth," Rusike said. When Godongwana delivers his medium-term budget policy statement at 2 pm in Cape Town on Wednesday, he's expected to show the National Treasury beating its consolidated budget-deficit forecast of 4% of GDP for 2026-27, with economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimating a shortfall of 3.8%. They also project the Treasury to have met its goal of stabilising debt in the year through March 2026. The debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast to decline to 77.5% this fiscal year, slightly slower than the Treasury's projected drop to 77.3%. "We are in a position where we have our public finances in order," Keabetswe Mojapelo, head of economic research at Old Mutual, said. South Africa's economy has largely withstood the fallout from the wars in Iran and Ukraine, while the government has kept spending in check despite heightened global uncertainty. That resilience, together with plans to introduce a fiscal anchor, is strengthening the case for a rating upgrade. "We've managed to weather this current shock quite well from a fiscal perspective and this is really unprecedented on the South African side because normally these kinds of shocks put us in a worse off position," Mojapelo said. "We have two rating agencies that have put us on a positive outlook and for the most part I don't see how from a fiscal perspective we get any worse off, even in managing these windfalls."

Structural, financial deficiencies in metros actively restricting economic growth – City Risk Monitor South Africa's major municipalities are facing severe financial pressure, driven by an inability to manage debt, crumbling infrastructure, and a crippling lack of long-term administrative planning. This is according to Independent Consultancy, the Paternoster Group's City Risk Monitor, which recently assessed nine of South Africa's ten major municipalities – including the eight metropolitan metros alongside Polokwane and Mbombela. Speaking to Polity.org, Paternoster Group founding partner Lawson Naidoo warned that structural and financial deficiencies are actively restricting economic growth and weakening investor confidence. The model evaluated four critical risk areas: financial sustainability; infrastructure and services; the development environment; and political/institutional risk. The findings show that the core infrastructure that residents and businesses depend on is failing. Naidoo pointed out that the financial health of the country's local government structure has been on a downward trajectory for years, a reality repeatedly mirrored in the Auditor-General's reports. Naidoo highlighted alarming statistics from the 2024/25 fiscal year, which indicated that only 35% of municipalities were classified as being in good financial health and that more than 50% lacked sufficient current assets to cover short-term liabilities. Also 72% suffered from inadequate cash flow to pay creditors on time. He explained that this fiscal collapse is heavily exacerbated by a combination of physical and financial distribution losses. Naidoo highlighted that municipalities are currently losing massive amounts of water and electricity owing to zero maintenance and illegal connections. "Only about half the water that a municipality uses is billed," Naidoo explained. Instead of investing in fundamental infrastructure upgrades to meet National Treasury norms, municipalities are bleeding cash into emergency, short-term stopgaps – such as hiring expensive water tankers – rather than fixing underlying pipe leakages and grid issues. Naidoo said for the private sector, the municipal decay translates directly into an increased cost of doing business. Escalating rates and tariffs are paired with extensive bureaucratic delays in approving building plans and issuing necessary regulatory permits. Furthermore, safety and security deficits continue to erode business confidence. Naidoo emphasised that long-term investment relies heavily on stability. "Businesses want to invest in places where there is certainty about the future direction of a municipal government and a municipal administration," he noted. He explained that a foundational flaw in the current local government framework is the uniform distribution of power. The Constitution allocates the exact same significant powers and responsibilities to all municipalities across the country, entirely disregarding their actual size, local revenue base, or administrative capacity to perform complex duties. Naidoo said this structural mismatch is further aggravated by localised political instability. The rise of volatile coalition governments across key metros has triggered a dangerous shift toward consumption spending – such as bloating staff costs – to satisfy short-term political promises, he explained. "When political leadership is not stable, we tend to see short-term spending prioritised over long-term investments," Naidoo stated. Ultimately, he said it is not a lack of financial resources, but a severe deficit in administrative capacity, planning, and political willpower that keeps South Africa's largest economic hubs anchored in a state of rolling crisis.

S Africa targets 1.3m unregistered children with early childhood development reforms Government is hosting the second Bana Pele Leadership Summit in Gauteng this week, underscoring its commitment to expanding early childhood learning as a critical development priority and a vital tool to redress historical inequalities. In his weekly letter to the nation, President Cyril Ramaphosa emphasised that Grade R is now officially compulsory in South Africa, meaning children must acquire essential foundational skills by the age of five. Despite this policy, a staggering 1.3-million children aged three to five are currently not enrolled in any early learning programme. Ramaphosa pointed out a sharp divide in educational access based on socioeconomic status. "Most of these children live in poorer communities, where paying even a low fee for a child to attend an ECD [early childhood development] centre is a challenge. In contrast, children in better-resourced communities are far more likely to enter the foundation phase able to read for meaning and handle basic numeracy," he said. The Bana Pele campaign, led by the Department of Basic Education (DBE), aims to dismantle these disparities. Ramaphosa reiterated that every child, regardless of the circumstances of their birth, deserves an equal opportunity to learn and grow. Quality ECD shapes a child's cognitive, social, emotional, and behavioural growth, providing the bedrock for lifelong success. The second Bana Pele Summit brings together a diverse coalition of stakeholders, including government officials, practitioners, communities, business leaders, funders, and civil society. The summit will evaluate the country's progress toward a crucial milestone: ensuring all children between the ages of three and five have access to affordable, equitable, and quality early learning programmes by 2030. HOW IT WILL WORK To achieve this, the government has substantially increased its investment over the past two years by raising subsidies for ECD attendees and allocating resources for expansion. The State aims to reach an additional 300 000 children by 2027 and a further 900 000 by 2030. However, the President noted that funding alone cannot solve the "crisis" and said public resources must be directed to the communities that need them most. Through the Bana Pele Mass Registration Drive, thousands of previously unregistered early learning providers are being brought into the national system. This initiative provides the government with a clearer geographic mapping of early learning centres, allowing authorities to identify service gaps and deploy targeted support. Ultimately, these early learning reforms are part of a broader strategy to renew South Africa's socioeconomic architecture. Because early learning intersects with education, public health, social protection, and employment, its long-term benefits will ripple across the entire economy, Ramaphosa stressed.

South Africa on path to investment-grade rating, Investec says South Africa stands a good chance of regaining its investment-grade credit rating within two years and next week's mid-term budget could take another step toward that goal, according to Investec Wealth & Investment International. The fund manager sees a more than 50% chance the country will restore its investment grade rating by 2028, propelled by economic reforms and fiscal discipline that have shifted sentiment after years of being shunned by investors. "A sufficiently credible medium-term budget policy statement could support an initial move by Moody's Ratings and S&P Global Ratings to one notch below investment grade" said investment strategist Osagyefo Mazwai. "If that progress is reinforced in the 2027 budget and 2027 MTBPS, an investment-grade rating by 2028 becomes achievable." Both ratings companies already have South Africa's credit assessment on a positive outlook. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will deliver the mid-term budget update on October 21 and is expected to show continued growth in the country's primary budget surplus – a gauge of how much revenue exceeds non-interest expenditure – amid stronger corporate tax receipts. He's also expected to lay out more details for a fiscal framework to ensure long-term budget discipline that keeps the ratio of government debt as a percentage of gross domestic product under control. The mid-term budget "needs to show that National Treasury is committed to a credible fiscal anchor, that the debt trajectory is moving decisively toward debt-to-GDP reduction, and that debt-service costs have peaked and can decline," Mazwai said. Credit-default-swap spreads suggest that markets are anticipating imminent upgrades to one notch below investment grade, Mazwai said. Moody's, which now rates South Africa Ba2 — two notches below investment grade — said earlier this week that the country is headed for its first credit-rating upgrade since 2009, provided it's fiscal performance continues to improve. The nation obtained a full house of junk ratings in 2020 when Moody's Ratings downgraded its debt assessment, leaving it without an investment-grade assessment for the first time in 25 years. More recently, sentiment has been warmed by the Treasury's success in keeping the budget on track and by the central bank lowering its inflation target to 3% last year, which was subsequently endorsed by Godongwana in a sign of government support. That's helped turn the page for investors after a decade of overspending under former President Jacob Zuma, who's nearly nine years in office was marred by corruption and mismanagement.

South Africa set for brighter fiscal outlook in Wednesday's mid-term budget South Africa's finance minister is expected to present an improved fiscal outlook in his mid-term budget on Wednesday, with a revenue windfall bolstering a push to regain an investment-grade credit rating. But record fuel prices, weak growth and pressure to spend ahead of November 4 local government elections could limit how much of the windfall the Treasury saves. Africa's most industrialised economy remains stuck in a low-growth rut, with the IMF forecasting growth of just 1% this year. Investors will be watching whether Pretoria uses stronger tax receipts to cut debt and shore up fiscal credibility or spends more. Corporate tax receipts jumped 22.8% in the first five months of the fiscal year, driven by strong mining profits, BNP Paribas said. VAT receipts rose 9.1% and personal income tax 8.4%. BANKS EXPECT BUDGET DEFICIT TO NARROW "We believe that there's going to be a more than R50-billion upward revision to revenue estimates relative to February," Jeffrey Schultz, head of CEEMEA economics at BNP Paribas Markets 360, told Reuters. Goldman Sachs estimates revenue could beat Treasury projections by R40-billion. But both banks expect the Treasury to factor in only R10 billion-R20 billion of the windfall. They see the main budget deficit narrowing to 3.3%-3.6% of GDP this fiscal year from February's 3.7% target. BNP expects debt-to-GDP to fall over the medium term after peaking at 78.2% in 2025, an important shift after years in which rising debt has squeezed the government's room to spend. FISCAL ANCHOR DETAILS EXPECTED Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is also expected to unveil details of a formal fiscal anchor aimed at keeping government borrowing and debt in check. Goldman expects the framework to be "principles-based" rather than a fixed numerical target. Moody's Vice President Evan Wohlmann said the agency would scrutinise the anchor's design, including "potential carve-outs" and how quickly the government would be required to correct any deviation. Goldman expects S&P Global to raise South Africa's rating to BB+ at its November 27 review, one notch below investment grade, and sees a possible upgrade from Moody's, which has a positive outlook. BNP's Schultz said the hurdle for returning to investment grade was higher. "The bar is probably a little bit higher beyond one more immediate upgrade, and that bar really comes from getting growth," he said. The fiscal improvement faces headwinds. Inland petrol topped 30 rand a litre for the first time this month after the Middle East conflict pushed oil above $100 a barrel, while growth remains weak.