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Join David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, each month for a look at the factors that are driving performance across US equities. We also cover risk considerations, thematic focuses, and positioning recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office (as outlined within the latest UBS House View). This month, David reflects on the factors that are driving equity markets, including oil prices, AI, Fed monetary policy, Q3 corporate earnings, and the upcoming US midterm election. Plus, an outlook for equities into year-end, and the latest positioning views. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Technology sector equity movements are attracting attention, but economists retain an appropriate degree of aloofness. The pattern of consumers reducing savings to finance consumption has been fairly universal across advanced economies. Wealth effects from the technology sector have not been as universal. As wealth effects are meaningless without changes of behavior to translate them into real economic action, the global similarities of behavior hint at consumers having a muted dependence on rising equity markets.

With Election Day less than two weeks away, Shane drops by to share an assessment of how key Congressional races across the country are shaping up (and where donors are applying resources). We also cover recent reports of renewed trilateral talks amongst the US, Ukraine, Russia to end the conflict. Plus, a look at a new program initiative by the White House to identify and combat fraud. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Oil prices continue to drift higher. US retail diesel prices are still near all-time highs, with no sign of mitigation from US administration policies. The news that the US is asking some of its diplomats to leave Saudi Arabia is not necessarily a positive signal about regional stability. Consumers should continue to consume despite the energy costs for the remainder of this year. Next year is when risks increase.

A quarterly check-up on the US macroeconomic environment, including consumer spending trends, the condition of the labor market, the road ahead for monetary policy, and the current landscape for deal-making. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Senior Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A wide-ranging conversation on the implications of the current macro environment and higher yields to fixed income return and positioning, including thoughts around where pockets of opportunity and concern exist. Featured are Lindsay Rosner, Managing Director and Head of Multi-Sector Investing within Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM)’s Fixed Income and Liquidity Solutions business, and Leslie Falconio, Managing Director and Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Oil prices rose above USD110 per barrel. Markets and politicians focus on round numbers, so while a small price increase is not directly important, the move does have potential consequences. The US administration is very sensitive to higher oil prices, and US retail diesel prices remain near their all-time highs. Investors’ concerns will likely focus on whether this will produce US concessions to Iran, or more aggressive central bank action.

AI concerns weakened Asian equity markets, after a data centre’s market launch performed poorly. The fact that one company had such a broad reaction might indicate a degree of investor nervousness. Economists are less concerned—economic wealth effects from the AI story seem modest, and a slowing of real world AI investment might benefit other sectors of the economy.

Despite Q3 corporate earnings results rolling in, investors over the past week have seemed more focused on the sustainability of the AI trade and cost of funding. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, weighs in on the factors that are driving investor sentiment, along with what the inflation and retail sales data reveals about the current macro environment. Plus, thoughts on portfolio positioning. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Rising interest rates are testing the balance sheets of highly levered AI infrastructure providers, but are they weakening the underlying demand for compute? This episode separates financing risk from demand growth and examines why compute pricing remains a critical signal for cloud infrastructure and semiconductor stocks.

China’s officially reported third quarter GDP growth was 4.5% y/y. That means that this year’s officially reported growth is likely to hit the officially set growth target. However, despite a stronger September China retail sales number, the domestic economy remains lackluster. Exports remain the growth driver. China has been fortunate that US companies have been adept at avoiding some tariffs, though ongoing economic nationalism (a form of scapegoat economics) threatens this pattern of growth.

Following what was a challenging quarter for fixed income investors, Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, reflects on Q3 performance drivers, and shares a performance outlook. We also discuss CIO’s current positioning recommendations across the asset class. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Europe’s government bond markets have faced growing pressure from higher energy prices, renewed inflation concerns, and increased scrutiny of public finances. The gap between French and German 10-year government bond yields recently reached its widest level since the 2011 European sovereign debt crisis as investors focused on France’s deficit and borrowing trajectory. Could the strains spread across the Eurozone, and where is the volatility creating opportunities? In this episode of Across the Pond, host Christopher Swann speaks with Frederick Mellors, Head of Global Fixed Income, about the growing divide between European sovereign borrowers, the European Central Bank’s policy dilemma, and the case for selectivity across government and corporate bonds.

US monetary policy is in focus, with Federal Reserve Chair Warsh refusing to give forward guidance on policy at the IMF meetings—then giving forward guidance of a sort. Warsh failed to sound hawkish. The word of Warsh carries relatively little weight, but this chimes with Fed President William’s earlier remarks. Expectations for an October rate increase are fading.

On this week’s episode, Burkhard acknowledges the fourth anniversary of the current bull market and weighs whether equities have further room to run, mindful of the impacts to the recent increase in the cost of capital. Burkhard also underscores the importance of corporate earnings to the health of an economy.