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This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down a week of mixed economic data and what it could mean for interest rates and the Federal Reserve’s next moves. GDP was revised higher, while the latest labor market data showed signs of weakness. For business leaders trying to plan around borrowing costs, hiring, and economic growth, the challenge is separating meaningful trends from short-term noise. Lauren explains why the latest jobs numbers deserve attention, but may not be enough to change the direction of interest rates. What should businesses be watching as the Fed balances labor market weakness against persistent inflation pressures? Share your thoughts in the comments.

What $40 Trillion in U.S. Debt Means for the 2030 Downturn | TrendsTalk by ITR Economics

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker examines why the 10-year Treasury yield has reached 5.2%, its highest level since 2007, and what rising bond yields could mean for interest rates, borrowing costs, and financial markets. She also discusses hawkish Federal Reserve commentary, stronger economic data, and why persistent inflation may keep pressure on the Fed to raise rates. Could the bond market be sending the Fed a signal it cannot ignore?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain examines how AI investment, data center construction, and semiconductor production are driving US economic growth. With many legacy manufacturing markets remaining flat and additional weakness expected in 2027, where can businesses find opportunities to diversify and grow? Tune in for the data shaping the outlook. 📊 Trends Report Free Preview → https://hubs.la/Q03ybVV00

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker explains why the Federal Reserve’s latest 25-basis-point rate hike could mark the beginning of a broader rate-raising cycle. With borrowing costs creating challenges for rate-sensitive businesses, Lauren examines persistent inflation, the Fed’s outlook, and the signals leaders should watch when planning for 2027 and beyond. Is your business prepared for interest rates to move higher?

TT 9.14.26 Audio by ITR Economics

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Michael Feuz guest hosts to break down the latest August inflation numbers, shifting rate hike expectations, and what the Fed may do next. With businesses facing uncertainty around borrowing costs, consumer strength, and inflation pressure from AI CapEx, energy prices, tariffs, and money supply growth, Michael explains why a rate hike may not solve the real problem. Watch for a timely look at monetary policy, the bond market, and what leaders should monitor heading into the next Fed decision. What do you think the Fed should do next?

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar examines why expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike shifted following Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. For business leaders navigating uncertain borrowing costs and weakness in housing and agriculture, Connor breaks down the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target, elevated PCE inflation, and the difference between headline inflation and underlying price pressures. One phrase in the speech may leave the Fed more room than markets expect. Do you think the Fed will raise rates in September?

2026 Inflation Outlook: Rising Input Costs Squeeze Margins | TrendsTalk by ITR Economics

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar examines what cooler PCE inflation could mean for the Federal Reserve’s September interest rate decision. He also explores July’s sharp home sales decline and why elevated Treasury yields and mortgage rates continue to squeeze rate-sensitive businesses. Which inflation measure should Fed policymakers trust when deciding whether to hold or hike rates? Share your perspective in the comments.

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain explains why the outlook for commercial construction is improving as we move toward 2027. While many sectors remain below year-ago levels, leading indicators are strengthening, and ITR Economics expects growth across every commercial construction vertical covered in the Trends Report next year. Which sectors could see the strongest growth, and what should contractors, suppliers, and businesses serving the industry be planning for now?

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar examines the Treasury’s move to increase buybacks of long-term US bonds as rising yields and mortgage rates put renewed pressure on the housing market. With single-family housing starts posting a historically sharp June-to-July decline and mortgage rates moving closer to 7%, businesses are facing another reminder of how higher borrowing costs can ripple through the economy. Connor breaks down what the Treasury’s latest intervention could signal, whether its goals are beginning to diverge from the Fed’s, and why the US crossing $40 trillion in national debt deserves attention. Is this simply a liquidity operation, or an early sign of friction between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve?

Data Center Demand Is Fueling Growth in Power Generation | TrendsTalk by ITR Economics

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar breaks down the latest CPI report and what it could mean for the Fed’s September rate decision. Inflation delivered a “Goldilocks” reading, but for businesses and consumers waiting for clearer direction on interest rates, the outlook remains far from settled. Connor also examines continued weakness in the housing market, shifting market expectations for the Fed’s next move, and why economic policy uncertainty can make investment decisions even more difficult. Plus, he responds to a viewer’s take on forward guidance and considers whether the Fed can provide greater clarity without signaling its next move. Do the latest inflation and labor market data give the Fed enough reason to stay on hold in September? Share your take in the comments.

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain is joined by Senior Economist and Consultant Tara Bayke to examine the health of the US consumer. Retail sales continue to grow, but a closer look reveals a widening divide between income groups as essential costs and credit card pressures affect consumers differently. What does this K-shaped economy mean for businesses over the next few years?