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This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- I can't help wondering how effective base rate moves really are as a tool for managing inflation. Setting aside the fact that it's currently driven by an external energy price shock, BoE rate hikes operate with a long lag or not at all to affect disposable incomes With inflation predicted to rise to as much as +6% next year and the BoE poor at tackling sticky UK inflation, will short term Gilt yields remain high and hence prolonged higher mortgage rates? is there a bubble in investing? Retail investors, influencers and every day people who have made easy money in a rising market since 2020/2022 who are now set to be wiped out by a crash that will probably be comparable to 2000 and 2008. Would we have been better off with Andy Haldane? 1) Did the @bankofengland rate rise and forecast of 5% inflation comment cause the reversal of the Democrats win rally in stock markets confirming AI rotation back into safety global bonds. A classic CB removal of ‘Punch Bowl’ signal .

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- How much has Lagarde early departure to do with Macron being able to influence the next appointment rather than his possible successor, Le Pen, if she had remained until October? During your questions later could you say how you expect these high electricity and natural gas prices to impact the economy and inflation/growth and what you would have done in the budget about them? Do you believe its possible the Fed/ECB hold decisions were coordinated at recent IMF meeting? Policymakers made aware 'Transitory' to stop raising rates avoiding upward pressure on long-end bond yields & to save AI. Will BoE follow suit next? Sounds impossible, but will France bring down the Euro?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- Back in May Lagarde suggested that the Euro should replace the Dollar as the global standard currency for international trade. Is she correct on anything she predicts? Q: After Retail Sales today & recent inflation data in the UK along with anaemic growth can we say this confirms the UK is in Stagflation ? How much does the treasury benefit from approving Jackdaw and potentially Rosebank? Does it help the Chancellor or hurt him that the Bank decides on rates eight days after his Budget? If France's credit rating is downgraded, will this not lead to increased bond sell off and a further strain on Le Spread?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- The growing UK energy crisis and its implications for both inflation and the Bank of England

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- I was asked by my daughter last night if we are about to enter a period of hyper inflation. I said unlikely unless the BoE ( or other central banks) go on another money printing spree. Was my answer too simplistic and too dismissive of the possibility? .. With Gas setting the spot price? What would it be if 100% renewables?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- Red Alert Klaxon. Le Spread exceeds 150 bps. Question for today. What happens now or will the ECB wait until it reaches 200 bps? With GILT levels at record highs and debt spiralling out of control. How likely is it that the budget will be the breaking point on whether there will be a crash?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- Q for today. Is the rumoured change in CGT a Treasury strategy to influence private financial advisers to move investments out of taxable investments into the Gilt market to help fund the UK Government & helping yields to stabilise ? Shaun, I know this is kind of unknown, but I am just wondering how high bond yields in France and Italy need to get in order to trigger a QE style response from the ECB and its system of national banks? I don't know if I'm in time Shaun but if I am, here's a question (or really several) for your pod: how high do you think the UK 10yr and 30yr could go, when might they reach those highs, and by then will it be too late for government to do anything about it?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- Question for Friday: Could the Bank of England let inflation rip to help write down our debt? Sounds a bit conspiratorial, but is it possible? Can you go over the announcement from the Bank of England regarding slowing down the pace of its QT programme? Thanks, Shaun. Are we all doomed A question for Friday. What would the BoE have to do to regain credibility, from the markets, in regards to it's sole purpose of maintaining inflation at or near its target rate? It appears to have the wrong Governor and the wrong structure to the MPC at the present time. With rents rising faster than house prices since 2022, how much of that do you think is the squeeze on BTL landlords, higher mortgage costs, tax/regulatory changes and landlords exiting; versus a more straightforward shortage of rental supply? How long can UK interest rates defy gravity?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- 1) Did Scot Bessent create a target for the market on the US 10-year when he stated his red line was at 5% yield? 2) Do you believe like myself that every 10bp rise in the long end UK yields pushes Rosebank /Jackdaw fields to be approved closer, especially we have a major Gas problem as the cold winter is fast approaching. At 78% on Oil field could re-coup 6-7 billion potential extra tax receipts for the UK treasury with no costs to the UK. Because Rosebank and Jackdaw are funded entirely by private corporate capital (Equinor, Ithaca, Shell), the government takes on zero debt risk, yet gets to tax the resulting profits at a massive 78% aggregate rate. The oil fields effectively act as an organic revenue engine to help pay down the very debt that rising gilt yields are making more expensive. Thanks Shaun. It just seems to be station keeping with the margin over the US treasury yields. Been consistent for some time now - is there a simple reason for that? (ie are our bond prices just reflecting large movements in US treasuries?) With the chances of the Republicans losing both Houses in the mid terms rising, what effect night that have on the world economy, as it would leave Trump effectively a lame duck President for the remainder of his term

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- Hi Shaun, this may be asking too much but do we have any idea what kind of losses the ECB is sitting on with regard to its various QE programmes? Shaun Just read a blog by Richard Murphy on Substack. Suggesting more quantitative easing. (Cobynomics?) so that UK can spend more. What do you think. Supposes govt will spend it on the right things. Does QE really work?. What the effect on inflation and is it a valid option Some questions for your pod, Shaun: should Japan, and the US, now just let the Yen find its natural level? What level might that be, and what consequences could be expected from it being allowed to settle where the market wants it to?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- Question for Friday: How seriously do you take China’s de-dollarisation efforts? (China is methodically lowering friction for converting trade-related RMB into a hard asset via Hong Kong-linked and planned global gold infrastructure. This supports de-dollarisation efforts by making the RMB more practical and credible for settlement without requiring a full gold standard or open capital account.) As the markets are now pushing back a potential interest rate by the BoE to early 27, yet other central banks are making moves now, do you think there are actually any circumstances where Bailey thinks a rate rise is necessary. It increasingly feels as if rate rises are his kryptonite (and his supporters on the MPC)

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- I guess Shaun you'll get any number of questions about what the US is up to, but if not how about something like this: what is Bessent trying to achieve, could it work, who benefits, who loses out. With the general rise in bond markets worldwide, will the ECB continue to ignore Le Spread (+86bps) or will there be a point in time where they will have to intervene? Should I be worried about UK national debt, or will the debt of countries like France, Japan or the USA keep markets occupied. The UK is alone in being the only major currency still pursuing aggressive "Qualitative Tightening" (QT), pushing Government debt out to the gilt markets instead of buying it itself (QE, Qualitative Easing). Others (US, Japan) are swapping gilts to balance interest (QE-lite). Maybe Burnham will too?

My first weekly podcast covering my economics philosophy as well as developments in Japan and UK GDP numbers.