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★★★★☆

4.4

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85 reviews

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Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer .......... This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC. This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this document. The information is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the markets, economy or other developments referred to in the Podcast Audio Show. Any opinions expressed in this Podcast Audio Show may change without notice. Any statements contained in this Podcast Audio Show attributed to a third party represent RenMac's interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party. Nothing in this Podcast Audio Show constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation is suitable or appropriate to an investor’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. Investments involve risks, and investors should exercise prudence and their own judgment in making their investment decisions. The value of any investment may decline due to factors affecting the securities markets generally or particular industries. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither RenMac nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss (including investment loss) or damage arising out of the use of all or any of the information. Any information stated in this Podcast Audio Show is for information purposes only and does not represent valuations for individual securities or other financial instruments. Different assumptions by RenMac or any other source may yield substantially different results. The analysis contained in this document is based on numerous assumptions and are not all inclusive. Copyright © Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. 2019. All rights reserved. All material presented in this Podcast Audio Show, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Renaissance Marco Research, LLC.

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Check latest episodes from RenMac podcast

RenMac Off-Script: Shoot First, Buy Later

2026/10/23

RenMac breaks down why Thursday's tech wipeout looks like forced liquidation rather than a bottom, with semis and hardware stuck at 20-day lows, shorts covered but not yet reloaded, and credit stress creeping up the quality ladder. The team also discusses why a Fed likely on hold in October still points to a December hike, Charlie Cook's midterm map, a cautious consumer facing high mortgage rates, France's blowing-out CDS spreads, and the week ahead in the FOMC, September core inflation, and Alphabet, Microsoft, and KLA earnings.

RenMac Off-Script: Higher for Longer, Wronger for Longer?

2026/10/16

RenMac breaks down another round of troubling inflation data and why the Fed’s reluctance to hike in October likely cements action in December. The team examines why improving market breadth may be misleading as defensive stocks lead, growing stress in credit markets, and how rising living costs and geopolitical risks could shape the midterms and markets.

RenMac Off-Script: AI's Reality Check*

2026/10/09

Ramp's Ara Kharazian joins RenMac to unpack what actual corporate spending data reveals about the AI boom, including why 1% of companies account for 80% of enterprise AI spending and why rising usage isn't translating into higher spending or broad productivity gains. The team discusses evidence that intensive AI adopters are growing employment rather than replacing workers, how competition between OpenAI and Anthropic is driving prices lower, and what that means for valuations and the massive infrastructure buildout. They also examine the inflationary implications of AI investment, emerging divisions within the semiconductor and software trades, and widening credit spreads beneath an equity market still near its highs. Check out Ara here: https://substack.com/@arakharazianSubscribe to our newsletter: https://go.renmac.com/newsletterRequest a trial of our research (for professional money managers): https://start.renmac.com/trialSign up for our research (for individual investors): https://renmacaccess.com/Get merch at https://renmacmerch.comTimestamps0:00 – Welcome, Disclaimer & Intro1:41 – Meet Ara Kharazian: Ramp AI Index4:40 – Corporate AI Spending & Adoption Trends9:04 – AI Spending: The Top 1% vs. the Median Firm10:34 – AI Adoption Across Industries13:15 – AI’s Impact on Employment & Hiring19:14 – AI Productivity & Return on Investment21:38 – Where Businesses Are Investing in AI24:38 – AI Valuations & Market Expectations25:41 – Cracks in the AI Thesis: Slowing Spending Growth26:46 – OpenAI vs. Anthropic: Competition & Pricing29:50 – AI Stocks, Semiconductors & Software32:16 – AI Data Centers & Washington Policy34:11 – Is AI Spending Inflationary or Deflationary?40:37 – Mailbag: Crypto vs. Equities44:54 – Week Ahead: Washington & Geopolitical Risks46:28 – CPI, PPI & the Fed Outlook49:19 – Ramp AI Index: Token Usage & Spending50:47 – Will AI Become a Commodity?54:54 – Bank Earnings, Credit Spreads & Market Risks56:54 – Treasury Demand & U.S. Fiscal Concerns58:03 – U.S. vs. Europe: Rising Interest Rates59:36 – Closing Remarks

RenMac Off-Script: Beneath the Bull

2026/10/02

RenMac breaks down a softer payroll report that reins in Fed hike expectations even as inflation remains the bigger hurdle for policymakers. The team discusses why higher real rates are beginning to show up in credit, weakness beneath the equity averages, the shift from TINA to TARA as bonds compete with stocks again, and why stretched bullish sentiment has Jeff growing a little cautious.

RenMac Off-Script: Hawk and Awe

2026/09/25

RenMac breaks down the breakout in long-end Treasury yields, why tighter monetary policy rather than fiscal concerns may be driving the move, and how higher real rates are beginning to bite. The team also discusses widening CCC spreads and signs of stress at the lowest end of credit, why the Fed’s former doves are turning more hawkish with additional hikes ahead, the growing disconnect between resilient economic data and weakening market internals, and why 39 relative-strength highs versus 350 lows in the Russell 1000 may be signaling what comes next.

RenMac Off-Script: There Is An Alternative

2026/09/18

RenMac breaks down the Fed’s unanimous rate hike, why Kevin Warsh’s first move suggests the tightening cycle may have further to run, and what increasingly restrictive real rates could mean for markets and the economy. The team discusses a resilient consumer facing mounting pressure from higher food, energy and borrowing costs, the continued unwind in tech and momentum, and why 5% Treasury yields are creating a real alternative to equities. They also explore the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting, the politics surrounding AI data centers, emerging-market opportunities, and what rising rates and shifting leadership could signal for the next phase of the market cycle.

RenMac Off-Script: The Great Separation

2026/09/11

RenMac breaks down stubborn inflation and why the Fed may be forced to hike as higher real yields reshape markets beneath the surface. The team discusses weakening momentum and the rotation out of tech, opportunities in TIPS, escalating Middle East energy risks, and why the recent momentum crash may be entering a critical “separation” phase that reveals the market’s next leaders.

RenMac Off-Script: Hormuz, Hyperscalers & the Market*

2026/09/03

Former U.S. National Security official Michael Allen rejoins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss the prolonged standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, why oil prices have remained surprisingly contained, and how the conflict is testing U.S. military capacity and strategic credibility. The team explores the intensifying competition with China over critical minerals, AI and compute, the growing political backlash against hyperscalers and data centers, and what winning the AI race actually means. They also break down the historic unwind in momentum, why elevated inflation and middling growth are flashing a more cautious market-cycle signal, and how resilient credit markets and a still-positive equity trend are keeping the broader bull case intact.

RenMac Off-Script: Fed Swallows Whistle

2026/08/28

RenMac is joined this week by Kevin Muir, author of The Macro Tourist and co-host of The Market Huddle podcast to discuss why the Fed has run out of room to move before the midterms and what that means for bonds, gold, and the AI trade. The team explores why rising yields are a rational response to global deficits and the largest infrastructure build-out since the 1850s, why the People's Bank of China — not the Treasury — is the real driver of gold, and why the hyperscaler capex boom looks more like an earnings bubble than a price bubble. They also cover Bessent's buyback operations, widening credit spreads, the momentum unwind, tariffs, and Jackson Hole.

RenMac Off-Script: Breaking Glass

2026/08/21

RenMac breaks down Treasury's move to double its long-end liquidity support ops to $4 billion, its turn from plumbing to arguing yields don't reflect fundamentals and how bill-funding those buys lands them on the Fed's sheet. The team also discusses why a 53-year high in capex intentions is credit-financed capacity that looks like growth until the cost of capital reprices, Oracle and Nvidia CDS at new highs, PMIs as a bad indicator for asset allocation and why P/Es are siren songs in the context of shooting failed momentum in the back.

RenMac Off-Script: Total Eclipse of the Hike

2026/08/14

RenMac breaks down a July inflation picture that isn't cooperating (softer CPI, firmer PPI, and core PCE annualizing near 2.5%), and why the bond market is under-pricing the risk of a September hike. The team also discusses slowing consumer spending after a weak retail sales print, a tape where the trend holds in the face of the momentum unwind and the Leopold rebound, the Credit Card Competition Act's path onto the Clarity Act, AOC's rise in the betting markets, and the week ahead in Fed minutes.

RenMac Off-Script: Forecasts > Feelings*

2026/08/06

Former CEA Chair and Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Steve Miran joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss why he sees potential growth running closer to 3% than 2% — on tax incentives, deregulation, and AI — and why a data-dependent Fed is "momentum trading" monetary policy rather than forecasting inflation a year out. The team breaks down AI capex draining tech free cash flow, the Warsh Fed's dissents and Waller's hawkish turn, a stronger yen and the mechanics of possible FX intervention. They also explore new S&P highs, Middle East uncertainty, and the week ahead in the CPI print.

RenMac Off-Script: Warsh Case Scenario

2026/07/31

Boucher fills in for Dutt, hosting an especially off-script edition of RenMac Off-Script, covering the biggest earnings and macro week of the summer, headlined by Kevin Warsh's dovish Fed hold. Neil Dutta argues the move reeks of a credibility problem that leaves the chair looking weak, with the long end selling off and a September hike increasingly likely as inflation—not growth—owns the Fed's reaction function. Jeff deGraaf puts a face on the momentum crash through the blow-up and rescue of Leopold's levered semis-versus-software trade, calling it a clearing event rather than the all-clear. The team also digs into rising global yields, energy's quiet leadership, tightening credit conditions, and Steve Pavlick's read on reconciliation, the debt limit, and the odds on the Clarity Act.

RenMac Off-Script: The First Crack

2026/07/24

RenMac breaks down the case for a Fed hike next week — Neil Dutta's "Why Not Now?" call, with September already priced at 100% — as AI capex, rising oil, and tariffs push inflation the wrong way and Warsh weighs moving in his honeymoon. The team also discusses the momentum crash and why the bounce is better sold than endorsed, real yields zapping gold and duration, $100 oil as the Iran conflict shuts the Red Sea, tariff maneuvering after Section 122's expiry, rotation into banks and healthcare, and the week ahead in the July 29 FOMC and core PCE.

RenMac Off-Script: Memorandum of Misunderstanding

2026/07/17

RenMac breaks down the vicious unwind in the momentum trade, why a low headline VIX is masking the highest single-stock dispersion the team has ever measured, and how a cooler CPI print does little to stop the Fed conversation from tilting toward a September hike, with inflation, not growth, now owning the reaction function. The team also discusses rising Strait of Hormuz tensions and elevated oil, a looming 25% Brazil tariff, Korea's AI-driven rate hike, yen intervention risk, and the Washington theater around Fed leadership and congressional stock-trading rules.

Podcast reviews

Read RenMac podcast reviews

4.4 out of 5

85 reviews

★★★☆☆

podwrm 2026/09/18

One-sided political commentary

Like the financial analysis, but the political commentary is very biased. Just play Fox News for a few minutes instead of Steve Pavlick.

★☆☆☆☆

maybdihjlz 2026/01/31

Lost a listener

Not cool making a “joke” about the man that was shot to death by ICE agents in Minneapolis.

★★☆☆☆

concertedeffort 2026/01/24

Big Dip In Quality

Notable fall off in quality since Trump returned to the White House and Dutta has been in full time audition mode for a role at the Fed and / or Treas...

★★★★★

Rustynyc 2025/11/24

Love this pod

These guys are money. Neil gives great nuanced view of economic data, and Jeff’s decades of experience provides insight into how Wall St works and wh...

★★★★★

BDruhot 2025/11/14

A+

This is the real All In podcast

★★★★★

Seattle_99 2025/09/07

What a douche

High school was great

★★★★☆

iusedtobe cool 2025/07/14

recent format change a no

i like when jeff moderated

★★★★★

McKinstryJr 2025/06/28

Always a Good Way to Cap Off Week

Love this show as a good way to recap the week on Friday night or Saturday morning. I appreciate the range of views between the three hosts. I am bias...

★★★☆☆

JanaintheUS 2025/03/15

Please improve your audio

Content is great but the audio is awful and sometimes I choose not to listen because the audio is bad. Please fix it.

★★★★★

Mars Ultima 2025/03/15

Excellent!

Terrific insights from smart people who analyze and follow the data, they don’t twist the data to fit a narrative.

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