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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Kevin Muir, author of The Macro Tourist, for a wide-ranging conversation on market sentiment, asset rotation, and the growing signals of stress beneath the surface of global markets. Kevin explains why extreme bullishness can be dangerous, why gold and commodities may be flashing warning signs, and how shifts in currencies, energy, and global capital flows could reshape portfolios in the years ahead. From hedging strategies to volatility, from AI-driven concentration to international diversification, this discussion focuses on how investors can think clearly in an environment where traditional relationships are breaking down. Topics covered: Why extreme bullish sentiment can be a warning sign for markets The meaning of “buying straw hats in the winter” and how to think about hedging Market breadth, small caps, and whether rotations are healthy or late cycle Gold, silver, and what precious metals signal about financial stress Cross-asset volatility and why correlations are changing Energy markets, commodities, and the long-term impact of underinvestment Global capital flows, foreign ownership of US assets, and currency risk The US dollar, trade deficits, and implications for international investors Portfolio construction lessons from bonds, commodities, and FX How macro regime shifts can change risk management and diversification Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and market sentiment overview 03:00 Buying protection and the straw hat analogy 07:00 Sentiment indicators and market confirmation 12:00 Market rotations, small caps, and late-cycle risks 18:00 Gold, silver, and precious metals as warning signals 23:00 Bonds, currencies, and broken correlations 29:00 Energy markets and commodity underinvestment 37:00 Global capital flows and foreign ownership of US assets 44:00 The US dollar, trade deficits, and FX volatility 52:00 Macro regime shifts and portfolio construction lessons

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Victoria Greene of G Squared Private Wealth for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, macro risk, portfolio construction, and how investors should think about 2026 and beyond. Victoria brings a pragmatic, risk-aware framework to investing, blending top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals, technicals, and a strong focus on cash flow, diversification, and policy risk. We cover everything from the rise of what she calls a badger market, to AI capex, market concentration, inflation risk, and why policy error, not valuation, is what historically ends bull markets. Main topics covered • Why valuation is a poor market timing tool and what actually ends bull markets • The concept of a badger market and how investors should mentally prepare for volatility • Cash flow never lies and how Victoria evaluates business quality • Diversification in 2026 and why international, commodities, and value matter more now • Risks and opportunities in the labor market, AI-driven disruption, and productivity • The K-shaped economy and what it means for consumers and corporate earnings • 60/40 portfolios, alternatives, and where commodities fit today • AI investing from infrastructure to software and cybersecurity • Yield curve dynamics, inflation risk, and portfolio positioning • Active vs passive investing in a concentrated market • How policy decisions and election dynamics influence markets Timestamps 00:00 Intro and why valuation does not kill bull markets 01:40 Investment philosophy and macro first portfolio construction 06:00 Cash flow never lies explained 07:40 Diversification beyond US large caps 10:00 Market expectations and big tech earnings risk 11:00 What is a badger market 12:40 Is the 60 40 portfolio dead 15:00 Why Victoria remains constructive on markets 18:00 Politics, sentiment, and market noise 21:00 Policy error vs valuation as the real risk 26:40 The K-shaped economy and consumer health 31:10 Hard data vs soft data disconnect 34:10 Labor market risks and data reliability 36:40 Yield curve steepening and inflation risk 41:40 Portfolio positioning in a higher inflation world 43:00 How to invest in AI beyond the Mag 7 47:20 Where we are in the AI cycle 49:30 Active management challenges and opportunities 53:00 Valuation, planning, and long-term return expectations

Follow Last Call on Spotify Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts Join Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler for the premiere episode of Last Call, a new monthly market wrap show where we go beyond the headlines to deliver actionable investment insights — and have a little fun along the way. Instead of focusing on index performance or short-term moves, we step back and connect the dots between macro instability, narrative shifts, options market signals, private credit risk, AI capital spending, and the changing nature of the Magnificent Seven. Featuring conversations with Brent Kochuba from SpotGamma, Ben Hunt from Perscient, Kai Wu from Sparkline Capital, and clips from our recent interviews with Liz Ann Sonders and Aswath Damodaran, the episode blends market structure, behavioral finance, valuation discipline, and long-term investing context to help investors understand what is really driving today’s market environment — and how to think about it going forward. Main Topics: • Why this is not a traditional market recap and how Last Call is designed to be more useful for investors • Instability versus uncertainty — and why today’s market feels different• Loss of trust in institutions, policy, and global systems and its impact on markets • What options market flows reveal about hidden market risks and sudden volatility• How private credit has reached bubble-like conditions and why narrative risk matters • The debate over retail and retirement account exposure to private credit• Why valuation discipline looks different when correlations rise across asset classes • Aswath Damodaran on trimming positions, raising cash, and the difficulty of finding uncorrelated assets • How the Magnificent Seven are changing from asset-light to asset-heavy businesses • AI capital expenditure, historical spending booms, and why infrastructure builders often underperform • Whether this AI cycle is truly different from railroads, telecom, and past technology booms Timestamps 00:00 — Intro and opening clips 01:10 — What Last Call is and why this format exists 04:30 — Instability versus uncertainty in today’s market 09:58 — Loss of trust, gold, and historical parallels 13:18 — Brent Kochuba on options flows and hidden market stress 25:17 — How options dislocations explain sudden market drops 25:40 — Ben Hunt on private credit narrative risk 28:00 — Why private credit exposure is everywhere 32:32 — Retail access versus restrictions in private credit 36:19 — What happens if the private credit bubble breaks 39:28 — Aswath Damodaran on raising cash and trimming positions 47:08 — The changing nature of the Magnificent Seven 47:42 — Kai Wu on AI capex and asset-heavy tech 50:48 — Why high capital spending often leads to underperformance 56:01 — Historical parallels from railroads to the dot-com boom

In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined again by Dan Rasmussen of Verdad Advisors for a wide-ranging conversation that challenges some of the most popular narratives in markets today. From private equity and private credit risks to AI-driven capital cycles and overlooked opportunities in biotech and international equities, Dan offers a deeply research-driven perspective on where investors may be misallocating capital and where future returns could emerge. Alongside Justin and special guest co-host Kai Wu, the discussion connects valuation, incentives, and innovation in a market environment shaped by concentration, leverage, and technological change. Main topics covered • Why private equity performance continues to disappoint and where the biggest structural risks are emerging • The growing stress in private credit and what rising bankruptcies signal for lower middle-market deals • Why democratizing private equity through 401ks, interval funds, and ETFs may create more problems than solutions • How AI CapEx is changing the economics of Big Tech and why asset-light models may be getting worse, not better • The case for diversifying away from U.S. concentration toward international markets and international small value • Why bubbles are often necessary for innovation and how to think about AI through that historical lens • How investors may be underestimating valuation and growth bankruptcy risk in the Mag 7 • Why biotech is one of the hardest sectors to model and how Verdad rebuilt its framework from scratch • How intangible value, clinical trial data, specialist ownership, and peer momentum can improve biotech investing • What capital starvation, M&A dynamics, and global competition mean for biotech’s future returns Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and market narratives 02:20 Revisiting private equity risks and performance 06:58 Private credit stress and bankruptcy signals 10:58 Private equity in 401ks and interval fund risks 14:52 Private assets in ETFs and liquidity concerns 15:45 Why bubbles drive innovation and capital formation 20:13 AI CapEx, Mag 7 concentration, and valuation risk 25:24 International diversification and market leadership 29:41 Why Verdad turned to biotech research 37:13 Rebuilding biotech valuation and quality metrics 44:26 Clinical trial data and peer momentum insights 49:17 Portfolio construction and long-short biotech strategies 51:00 Capital starvation, AI, and biotech’s setup 53:58 Research culture, humility, and evolving quant models

In this episode of our new show The 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom explore how the words investors use quietly shape the decisions they make — often in destructive ways. From labels like “cheap,” “expensive,” and “compounder” to debates about valuation, concentration, and AI, the conversation digs into how language collapses uncertainty into false certainty. Drawing on general semantics, mental models, and decades of investing experience, they explain why confusing maps for reality leads investors astray — and how clearer thinking can change how you see markets, risk, and long-term returns. Topics discussed include: Why paying 30x earnings can be rational when return on invested capital stays high How the word “is” smuggles hidden assumptions into investment decisions The difference between a company being a compounder and having compounded in the past Why valuation debates are really disagreements about time horizon The “map vs. territory” problem in financial statements and market data Market concentration, index construction, and why benchmarks can mislead investors How language shapes narratives around value, growth, and risk AI investing, capital allocation, and separating durable businesses from hype Why many binary true-or-false questions are traps for investors How long-term investors think in decades, not quarters

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with TG Macro founder Tony Greer to explore why markets are increasingly signaling a loss of faith in institutions and what that means for investors heading into 2026. Tony lays out a framework that connects inflation, central bank credibility, political risk, global regime change, and shifting consumer behavior into a coherent macro narrative. From gold and precious metals to miners, commodities, cyclicals, and the evolving role of AI, this conversation bridges big-picture macro themes with actionable market insights for both traders and long-term investors. Topics covered: • Why gold is rallying as trust in institutions erodes • Central banks, inflation, and the long-term consequences of monetary policy • The shift from a 60-40 portfolio to alternatives and real assets • Precious metals versus technology leadership in a changing market regime • Gold miners, industrial miners, and uranium as core themes • Consumer inflation, food prices, and purchasing power on Main Street • Big Food, Big Pharma, and the broader trust breakdown • Legal, political, and geopolitical risks shaping investor behavior • The end of globalization and the rise of domestic supply chains • Copper, energy, and natural resources in an economic recovery • AI, semiconductors, and signs of a leadership transition • Prediction markets and new tools for understanding market expectations • Financials, airlines, and overlooked cyclical opportunities • How to think about risk management when macro regimes change Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and the collapse of trust in institutions 02:00 Why gold is responding to credibility loss, not fear 05:00 Central banks, inflation, and monetary excess 08:20 Purchasing power and real-world inflation pressures 11:00 Big Food, Big Pharma, and consumer awareness 14:00 Healthcare, fraud, and institutional breakdown 16:30 Legal system risk and political credibility 18:30 Global factors, sanctions, and the shift away from globalization 21:00 Precious metals, miners, and natural resource leadership 25:00 The three mining themes driving performance 29:00 Stocks and gold rising together in a new regime 32:00 Gold market structure and long-term trend analysis 36:00 Japan, global bond markets, and gold demand 39:00 Investing versus trading precious metals 43:00 Copper, supply chains, and tech partnerships 47:00 AI leadership, capital rotation, and market risk 51:00 Financials, airlines, and cyclical signals 57:30 What would break the thesis and risk management signals

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, to discuss how long-term macro forces are shaping markets and investment opportunities. Jan shares how his firm thinks about government spending, monetary policy, and technology, why he believes investors have more visibility than they realize heading into 2026, and how trends like artificial intelligence, gold, and global asset allocation could redefine portfolios over the next decade and beyond. Topics covered in this episode include How VanEck uses fiscal policy, monetary policy, and technology as core macro pillars Why declining fiscal deficits may reduce long-term stress on markets The case for a less interventionist Federal Reserve and what it means for investors Why thinking in decades, not quarters, can lead to higher conviction investing Artificial intelligence as a transformative economic force and its impact on semiconductors, energy, and productivity The AI capex buildout, compute shortages, and lessons from past infrastructure booms Gold’s resurgence as a global store of value in a multipolar world The difference between owning physical gold and gold mining stocks Risks and opportunities in private credit and business development companies Why illiquid assets may not belong in daily liquidity vehicles like ETFs India’s long-term growth potential and implications for global portfolios How family ownership influences VanEck’s long-term investment approach Behavioral mistakes investors make and why long-term charts matter Lessons Jan would teach the average investor based on decades of market experience Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and VanEck’s macro framework 02:25 Translating macro views into product development 04:34 2026 outlook and why visibility may mean risk on 06:00 Fiscal deficits, interest rates, and market stress 07:00 The future of Federal Reserve intervention 10:48 Long-term investing versus short-term predictions 14:00 India, global growth, and asset allocation 19:00 Artificial intelligence, compute demand, and semiconductors 24:00 AI, jobs, and economic impact 29:00 AI capex, market concentration, and historical analogies 38:31 Private credit risks and liquidity considerations 40:35 Illiquid assets and ETFs 42:56 Gold, global currencies, and long-term trends 47:26 Gold miners versus physical gold 52:14 Contrarian opportunities and underloved markets 52:47 Advantages of a family-owned investment firm 56:06 Tokenization, blockchain, and market structure 59:45 Investor psychology and long-term charts 01:02:05 Lessons for the average investor

In this episode of Excess Returns, Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather joins Matt Zeigler to unpack what she calls the Great Housing Reset. Rather than a housing crash or correction, Fairweather argues the market is entering a multi year transition toward something more normal, where incomes gradually catch up to home prices and affordability improves at the margin. The conversation covers mortgage rates, supply constraints, regional housing dynamics, climate risk, policy tradeoffs, and how AI is reshaping real estate decisions for buyers, renters, and investors. Topics covered in this episode • Why the current housing market is a reset, not a crash or correction • How income growth outpacing home price growth could slowly improve affordability • Mortgage rate dynamics and why rates may stay near the low 6 percent range • The mortgage rate lock in effect and why inventory may take years to normalize • Regional housing trends including the Midwest, Northeast, Sunbelt, and tech hubs • The role of wages, rents, and affordability for Gen Z and first time homebuyers • Investor activity, rental markets, and the outlook for housing as an investment • Immigration, foreign buyers, and local market distortions • Multi generational living, ADUs, and creative housing solutions • Housing policy ideas that actually address supply constraints • Why demand side policies like 50 year mortgages miss the real problem • Climate risk, insurance costs, and total cost of home ownership • How AI and conversational search are changing the home buying process • The future of MLS consolidation and real estate market structure • Practical guidance for renters, buyers, and homeowners looking ahead to 2026 Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and the Great Housing Reset 02:00 What a housing reset really means 03:30 Income growth versus home price growth 05:20 Mortgage rates and the outlook for borrowing costs 08:40 Fed policy, bond markets, and mortgage rates 10:40 Inventory shortages and the lock in effect 12:30 Regional housing market winners and losers 16:00 Affordability challenges for younger buyers 19:00 Rental markets and investor dynamics 21:20 Multi generational living and ADUs 25:00 Housing policy and supply constraints 29:30 Why 50 year mortgages do not solve affordability 33:00 Geographic housing outlook by life stage 39:30 Climate risk, insurance, and housing costs 47:00 Energy efficiency and dense housing 50:20 AI, real estate search, and market structure 54:30 What to watch in the housing market through 2026 59:30 Book discussion and where to follow Daryl Fairweather

In this episode of Excess Returns, Rupert Mitchell returns to break down a rapidly shifting global macro landscape and explain how he is positioning across regions, assets, and market regimes. The conversation spans emerging markets, commodities, China, Latin America, US market leadership, and the risks building beneath familiar narratives. Rupert walks through the charts, frameworks, and portfolio construction decisions that underpin his current outlook, with a focus on duration, cash flows, and real assets in a changing cycle. Topics covered include: Why US equity leadership is showing signs of fatigue after a decade-plus run The case for emerging markets as a multi-year relative trade Latin America as a commodity-driven opportunity rather than a political bet Brazil, Mexico, and Peru through the lens of fiscal policy and real assets Why India stands out as expensive within emerging markets China’s equity market inflection and the role of domestic savings and fiscal support The difference between onshore A-shares and offshore Chinese equities Why Rupert prefers lower-beta, dividend-oriented exposure in China How AI is being deployed differently in China versus the US The risks facing enterprise software and long-duration growth assets Portfolio construction, benchmarking, and managing drawdowns across cycles How Rupert thinks about hedging, trend following, and capital preservation Timestamps: 00:00 Macro market backdrop and early warning signals 01:00 Venezuela, oil, and why context matters more than headlines 04:40 The chart of truth and US versus international equities 07:00 Emerging markets relative performance and historical parallels 10:00 Duration risk, valuation, and the shift toward real assets 14:30 Mag 7 leadership, software weakness, and AI disruption 18:00 India valuations and the role of flows and derivatives 20:40 Latin America beyond politics: commodities and fiscal drivers 26:00 Brazil, Mexico, and country-level positioning 29:50 Benchmarking and why Latin America is a major overweight 32:10 China’s equity inflection and the ABC framework 36:00 Fiscal policy, buybacks, and domestic savings in China 41:00 Tencent versus Alibaba and managing drawdowns 44:30 AI capex discipline in China versus the US 46:00 Stock selection in China and second-derivative opportunities 51:00 Portfolio construction, benchmarks, and risk management 58:00 Blind Squirrel Macro, live shows, and ongoing research

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Gary Mishuris, Managing Partner and CIO of Silver Ring Value Partners, to explore how deep fundamental analysis, behavioral insight, and disciplined process come together in real-world investing. Gary shares formative lessons from his early career at Fidelity during the post-tech bubble period, including firsthand experiences learning from legends like Peter Lynch, and connects those lessons to how he evaluates value, quality, and mispricing today. The conversation spans a detailed case study on Warner Bros. Discovery, portfolio construction under uncertainty, selective use of options, and how artificial intelligence is reshaping the research process for long-term investors. Topics covered in this episode • Lessons from Peter Lynch and Fidelity on why “just cheap” does not work • The Silver Ring origin story and how early life experiences shaped a value investing mindset • Warner Bros. Discovery as a good business plus bad business mispricing case study • How hated stocks, spin-offs, and catalysts can unlock hidden value • Conviction, position sizing, and staying rational when the market disagrees • When and why options can be used in a value investing framework • Auctions, ego, and why prices can overshoot intrinsic value • The role of mental models like reflexivity, activation energy, and lollapalooza effects • How AI fits into an investment research process without replacing judgment • What average investors should understand about incentives and simplicity Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and why “just cheap” does not work 02:20 Early career at Fidelity and lessons from Peter Lynch 07:40 The Silver Ring story and learning what real value means 12:00 Warner Bros. Discovery and the good company bad company problem 18:30 Conviction, mispricing, and maintaining discipline in hated stocks 26:40 Using options selectively and managing portfolio-level risk 34:10 Auctions, ego, and when price can detach from intrinsic value 44:30 Entertainment, media disruption, and evergreen demand for content 49:50 How AI is changing equity research and idea generation 55:40 What AI can see that humans often miss 01:00:30 One lesson for the average investor

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Mike Green of Simplify Asset Management for a deep dive into how passive investing has reshaped market structure, altered price discovery, and created new sources of systemic risk beneath the surface of today’s equity markets. Mike explains why index funds are not as passive as most investors believe, how daily flows drive prices in increasingly inelastic markets, and why the growth of passive strategies may be pushing markets toward an unstable endpoint. The conversation also explores macro implications, AI-driven capital spending, demographic shifts, and what all of this means for investors navigating the years ahead. Topics covered How passive investing and ETF flows actively influence market prices The inelastic market hypothesis and why markets absorb flows differently than investors expect Why index funds no longer fit the classic definition of passive investing The growing share of passive ownership and what happens as it continues to rise Potential market instability and the theoretical limits of passive dominance How demographics, retirement flows, and 401k defaults affect market structure Critiques of arguments downplaying the impact of passive investing Why large-cap concentration keeps increasing despite slowing fundamentals Implications for active management, stock selection, and liquidity The role of AI, capital expenditures, and energy constraints in the macro outlook What rising electricity demand and infrastructure investment mean for the economy Housing market distortions, demographics, and long-term structural challenges Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and why passive investing is not truly passive 03:00 The inelastic market hypothesis explained 06:00 Daily flows, index funds, and price impact 08:20 How much of the market is now passive 11:40 What happens if passive investing keeps growing 14:20 Retirement flows and demographic effects on markets 19:00 Responding to critiques of passive market impact 23:00 Liquidity, concentration, and large-cap dominance 27:00 Why market cap does not equal liquidity 33:00 Active management under pressure 38:00 Current market conditions and early-year rotations 41:50 Economic growth, GDP, and underlying volatility 43:30 AI capex, overinvestment, and market incentives 47:00 Energy, electricity demand, and long-term constraints 52:40 Housing, demographics, and policy challenges

This episode of Excess Returns features Gene Munster and Doug Clinton breaking down their 2026 technology and market predictions, with a deep focus on artificial intelligence, big tech, and where investors may be misreading the current cycle. The conversation explores how far along the AI bull market really is, what fundamentals still support it, and where the biggest opportunities and risks may emerge over the next several years. Munster and Clinton discuss market structure, capital spending, valuation, and technological inflection points across AI, software, hardware, and autonomous driving, offering a grounded but forward-looking framework for long-term investors. Main topics covered Why the AI bull market may still have multiple years left and how fundamentals support current valuations Nasdaq return expectations through 2026 and what earnings and multiples imply for investors The case for small-cap and non–Mag Seven tech outperforming as the AI cycle matures Hyperscaler AI capital spending and why CapEx growth could exceed current expectations Whether AI pricing pressure leads to commoditization or expanding long-term value creation How AI is changing the economics of infrastructure, platforms, and asset-heavy tech businesses Apple’s AI strategy, the future of Siri, and why expectations matter for valuation Alphabet, Amazon, and the evolving AI competition among the largest technology companies Energy constraints, data centers, nuclear power, and the infrastructure needed to support AI growth Tesla, Waymo, and the realistic timeline for autonomous driving and robotaxi adoption How physical AI, autonomy, and robotics could reshape transportation and consumer behavior Timestamps 00:00 AI cycle outlook and why the bull market may still be early 05:00 Nasdaq return expectations and earnings fundamentals 10:30 Small-cap tech versus Mag Seven performance 17:15 Hyperscaler AI CapEx and Nvidia’s signals 24:00 Infrastructure, pricing power, and AI commoditization debates 32:30 Apple, Siri, and consumer AI assistants 38:50 Alphabet, Amazon, and AI competition among mega-cap tech 45:00 Energy, data centers, and nuclear power considerations 48:10 Tesla, autonomy, and robotaxi timelines 54:15 Waymo, market share, and the future of transportation

In this episode of Excess Returns, Professor Aswath Damodaran joins Matt Zeigler and Kai Wu for a wide-ranging conversation on valuation, portfolio construction, and how investors should think about risk, discipline, and opportunity in a market shaped by AI, market concentration, and rising uncertainty. Damodaran walks through how he builds and manages his own portfolio, why price matters more than story or quality, and how AI-driven capital spending could reshape margins and returns across the economy. The discussion blends practical investing frameworks with big-picture market insights, offering a clear look at how a valuation-driven investor navigates today’s environment. Main topics covered • How Aswath Damodaran builds a stock portfolio, including diversification, position sizing, and turnover • Why investing is about buying at the right price, not buying great companies • Using valuation frameworks to invest in young, unprofitable, and fast-growing companies • How stories and narratives fit into valuation without replacing financial discipline • Watchlists, patience, and waiting for price rather than chasing popular stocks • Sell discipline, overvaluation triggers, and avoiding emotional attachment to winners • Using probability distributions and simulations instead of single-point estimates • How company lifecycles affect growth, margins, and capital allocation decisions • Why many companies struggle as they age and how management quality shows up late in the lifecycle • AI as a capital cycle and why massive AI investment may lower margins overall • Why AI is likely to create a bubble, even if it delivers long-term economic value • Winners and losers in the AI value chain, from infrastructure to applications • Risks from AI infrastructure spending, debt, and cross-ownership structures • Why private markets may not deliver better outcomes for individual investors • How Damodaran thinks about cash, diversification, and assets uncorrelated with equities • Reentering markets after selling and avoiding the trap of staying in cash too long • Time horizon, legacy investing, and managing wealth across generations Timestamps 00:00 Investing is about price, valuation, and early thoughts on AI and market risk 01:54 Personal investing philosophy and why portfolios must be investor-specific 03:00 Diversification, number of holdings, and managing downside risk 05:00 Valuation frameworks and buying companies at the right price 06:00 Stories versus numbers and avoiding the circle of competence trap 08:20 Political risk and why some sectors are hard to value 08:47 Watchlists, patience, and waiting for price to meet value 11:43 When and why to sell stocks as a value investor 12:00 Using probability distributions and simulations in valuation 15:48 Sell discipline, fund flows, and separating skill from luck 18:00 Company lifecycles, aging businesses, and management discipline 23:18 Apple, Meta, and contrasting approaches to AI investment 24:08 AI bubbles, winner-take-all dynamics, and capital cycles 27:48 Infrastructure investing, debt risk, and societal spillovers 32:20 Cross-ownership risks and AI ecosystem fragility 35:00 AI’s impact on profit margins and competition 39:41 Where AI value may accrue over time 44:38 AI tools, valuation bots, and the rise of investment scams 49:17 Private markets, alternatives, and cost structures 53:05 Cash, collectibles, and diversification beyond equities 56:33 Reentering markets after selling and avoiding market timing traps 58:35 Time horizon, legacy investing, and generational wealth

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Liz Ann Sonders to discuss the evolving market and economic landscape heading into 2026. The conversation focuses on why this cycle feels fundamentally different, how instability rather than uncertainty is shaping investor behavior, and what that means for inflation, the labor market, Federal Reserve policy, and equity markets. Liz Ann breaks down the growing bifurcation across the economy and markets, the shift away from the Great Moderation era, and how investors should think about diversification, earnings, valuations, and AI-driven capital spending in a more volatile and fragmented environment. Main topics covered • Why today’s environment is better described as unstable rather than uncertain • The K-shaped economy and growing bifurcation across consumers, sectors, and markets • Inflation dynamics and why 2 percent may now be a floor rather than a ceiling • How deglobalization, supply chains, and tariffs are changing the inflation regime • The shifting relationship between stocks and bonds • Hard data versus soft data and what sentiment is really telling us • The labor market’s headwinds and tailwinds, including immigration and hiring trends • AI’s impact on productivity, jobs, and capital spending • The AI capex boom and how it differs from the late 1990s tech cycle • Earnings growth, valuation compression, and market broadening • Rolling recessions versus traditional economic downturns • Federal Reserve challenges under a conflicted dual mandate • Why factor-based investing matters more than sector or style calls Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and why this cycle feels different 02:00 Uncertainty versus instability in markets 03:30 The K-shaped economy and market bifurcation 07:00 Market broadening, small caps, and diversification 09:00 Inflation measurement challenges and data reliability 12:00 Why inflation may stay above 2 percent 15:00 Stock and bond correlations across cycles 17:30 Labor market crosscurrents and immigration effects 20:45 AI, productivity, and entry-level job pressures 24:30 Sentiment versus fundamentals in markets 27:30 Retail trading, behavior, and market psychology 31:00 Rolling recessions and post-pandemic distortions 38:00 Technology, cyclicality, and sector rotation 40:30 The Fed’s policy dilemma and internal disagreements 45:00 AI capital spending and comparisons to the dot-com era 51:00 Earnings growth versus valuation expansion 55:00 Factors, GARP, and portfolio positioning for 2026

This episode of Excess Returns features a wide ranging conversation with Grant Williams on what he calls the hundred year pivot. Grant explains why today’s environment feels fundamentally different from the last several decades, why long held investing assumptions may no longer apply, and how declining trust in institutions, money, and markets is reshaping the global financial system. Drawing on history, macroeconomics, and decades of market experience, the discussion explores what this transition means for investors trying to navigate a world defined by uncertainty, volatility, and structural change. Main topics covered • What the hundred year pivot means and why it represents a once in a generation shift • The Fourth Turning framework and how it connects financial crises, politics, and social change • Why buy the dip worked for decades and why it may fail in the years ahead • The erosion of trust in institutions and its impact on markets and money • The financial crisis, sanctions, and the freezing of sovereign assets as turning points • The role of the dollar, gold, and central banks in a changing monetary system • Lessons from history including Bretton Woods and the Suez crisis • Why commodities and real assets matter in a world of deglobalization and reshoring • How artificial intelligence fits into the current investment cycle and capital allocation boom • Portfolio construction and behavioral challenges in a higher volatility environment Timestamps 00:00 The hundred year pivot and why this cycle is different 01:30 Defining the Fourth Turning and historical cycles 07:40 The financial crisis as the start of institutional breakdown 11:00 Sanctions, sovereign assets, and the end of unquestioned trust in the dollar 18:20 Historical parallels from Bretton Woods and the Suez crisis 24:50 What could trigger a broader monetary reset 28:50 Energy, geopolitics, and shifting global alliances 35:00 Commodities, real assets, and rebuilding supply chains 42:40 Artificial intelligence, capital cycles, and uncertainty 52:30 Portfolio construction, behavior, and risk tolerance 59:50 Where to follow Grant Williams and his work