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Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🏛️ 45Z Clean Fuel Tax Credit — New Guidance The US Treasury Department and IRS released long-awaited proposed guidance on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production tax credit this week. Biofuel and agricultural groups largely welcomed the rules, citing improved clarity after years of delays. Key takeaways from the proposal: Fuels produced after December 31, 2025, must use feedstocks grown exclusively in the US, Mexico, or Canada The 45Z credit is extended through 2029 The special SAF credit rate is eliminated for fuel produced after January 1, 2026 The indirect land use change (ILUC) penalty is removed A 60-day public comment period is now open, with a public hearing scheduled for May 28 🧾 45Z — Important Context & Clarifications 45Z was enacted under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, but implementation has been repeatedly delayed It is a clean fuel production credit, claimed by biofuel producers (ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel, etc.) This is not 45Q, which applies to carbon capture and sequestration In most cases, plants can claim either 45Z or 45Q—not both Non-SAF fuels can receive up to $1.00 per gallon Only a limited number of plants claimed 45Z in 2025 Plants are now preparing for 2026 production, though rules remain proposed There is no direct payment to farmers—plants will decide how low-CI premiums are shared Treasury plans to release a Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator (FD-CIC) to address farming practices 🚜 US Farmer Sentiment Slides Farmer sentiment dropped sharply in January. Purdue University’s CME Group Ag Economy Barometer showed: A steep decline in current conditions and future expectations Nearly 60% of farmers expect bad financial times over the next year Long-term pessimism rose meaningfully Concerns about US agricultural exports increased This highlights the difficult backdrop facing producers even as policy clarity improves. 🇧🇷 Brazil Ethanol Production Outlook Brazilian ethanol production is expected to rise this year as- Ethanol prices improve Sugar prices weaken New corn ethanol plants come online A large sugarcane crop boosts output StoneX projects strong growth, with corn ethanol production jumping sharply. This could push Brazil toward higher ethanol exports, and corn usage for ethanol may reach a record share of production. 🇨🇳 China’s “No. 1 Document” & Food Security China unveiled its annual rural policy blueprint aimed at boosting food self-sufficiency. The plan emphasizes: Higher grain and oilseed production Diversified agricultural imports Reduced reliance on traditional suppliers like the US and Canada Expanded sourcing from South America and the Global South New quotas on beef imports and tariffs on EU dairy Increased investment in agricultural innovation ₿ Bitcoin Update Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest level since November 2024, pressured by: Liquidations of leveraged positions Weak sentiment in crypto derivatives Broader financial market volatility Despite some institutional interest, everyday investor participation has slowed, leaving Bitcoin under continued pressure.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇺🇸🇮🇳 US–India Trade Deal The Trump administration announced a trade agreement with India that reduces tariffs on Indian imports into the US from 25% to 18%. In exchange, India agreed to remove tariffs and trade restrictions on US goods and halt purchases of Russian oil. India also committed to purchasing more than $500 billion of American goods, including agricultural products. However, key details remain unclear, including when the deal takes effect and which specific products India will buy. 🌽 Grain Markets Grain futures extended losses on Monday. The March 2026 corn contract fell roughly 3 cents to near $4.26 per bushel, while March 2026 soybeans slipped about 4 cents to around $10.60 per bushel. Wheat futures also ended lower, pressured by concerns about frigid temperatures across the US Plains and the Black Sea region. 🚢 Export Inspections US corn inspections declined last week but remain strong overall. The USDA reported inspections of 1.1 million metric tons for the week ending January 29, down 27% from the prior week and nearly 10% below the same week last year. Soybean inspections came in near the high end of expectations at 1.3 million metric tons. That figure was slightly lower week-over-week but well above last year’s pace, with China accounting for roughly 56% of total shipments. Wheat inspections totaled 326,828 metric tons, near the top of expectations. Shipments were lower versus the previous week but significantly higher than the same week last year.  🥩 Tyson Foods Tyson Foods reported another difficult quarter for its beef segment, posting an adjusted operating loss of $143 million. Tight cattle supplies continue to push costs higher, and Tyson expects those conditions to persist through this year and into 2027. In contrast, Tyson’s chicken segment posted year-over-year sales growth, marking a fifth straight quarter of volume gains. The company expects chicken to be the preferred protein this year due to affordability.  🇧🇷 Brazil Soybeans Brazil’s soybean harvest continues to advance steadily. AgRural estimates that 10% of the crop had been harvested as of last Thursday, slightly ahead of last year’s pace. StoneX raised its Brazilian soybean production estimate to a record 181.6 million metric tons, while Celeres lifted its forecast to 181.3 million.  🚜 Farm Aid Talks Lawmakers continue to push for additional farmer assistance. Michigan Representative Kristen McDonald Rivet said more aid is needed to help farmers cope with high input costs and tariff-related disruptions. She emphasized that federal aid is a temporary fix and that farmers ultimately need more reliable markets and predictable trade policy. McDonald is a co-sponsor of the proposed Farm and Family Relief Act of 2026, which calls for nearly $30 billion in aid. She believes Congress will approve the recently discussed $15 billion package by the end of the month.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/ Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095 Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG 🌽🌱 Grain Futures Recap Grain futures finished lower on Friday, pressured by profit-taking and a rebound in the US dollar. March corn slipped by nearly 3 cents to $4.28 March soybeans dropped 8 cents to $10.64 Wheat futures also declined, with Chicago March wheat down about 4 cents to $5.38 Markets also continue to price in strong Brazilian crop expectations, while traders assessed the impact of severe cold across the US Plains earlier this week and frigid temperatures in Ukraine. 👉 See grain charts below 🥇🥈 Gold & Silver: Historic Volatility Precious metals suffered historic one-day losses on Friday. Gold futures fell sharply Silver posted its worst daily decline since 1980 The selloff followed President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, which eased concerns about central bank independence and sent the US dollar sharply higher. Longer term, metals may still find support from geopolitical risks and trade uncertainty, but Friday was a major reset. 👉 See gold, silver, and Dollar Index charts below 🏛️ Federal Reserve Update President Trump officially selected Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair when Powell’s term ends in May. Warsh has historically been a policy hawk Recently shifted toward supporting lower rates Viewed by markets as more inflation-focused than other rumored picks One analyst summed it up: “Because Warsh has been a policy hawk his entire life, his newfound dovishness looks very suspect.” 👉 See Dollar Index and Bloomberg Commodity Index charts below 📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released its weekly COT report. For the week ending January 27, funds were net buyers across major ag markets: Corn Soybeans SRW wheat 👉 See Fund Tracker charts below 🚜 Farmer Assistance Update Additional farmer aid remains under discussion in Washington. According to John Boozman, the proposed $15B package was excluded from the current spending bill Aid could still move forward as a standalone bill or disaster relief add-on The $11B Farmer Bridge Assistance program is still scheduled to be distributed by February 28 🐄 Cattle Inventory: Historically Tight The USDA cattle inventory report confirmed the smallest US herd since 1951. Total herd: 86.2 million head Beef cow numbers declined again Slight uptick in replacement heifers, but not enough to signal real expansion Bottom line: structurally bullish for the cattle market with no clear signs of herd rebuilding.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🥈 Precious Metals Volatility Silver futures were slammed this morning, with the nearby March contract down sharply in early trade. Gold also moved lower. Some traders are pointing to speculation around an imminent Trump pick for the next Fed Chair as a possible catalyst. Regardless of the reason, the size and speed of the move has grabbed everyone’s attention. 🎰 Prediction Markets & CME’s Next Move The CFTC says it plans to update prediction-market rules, aiming to provide more regulatory clarity while supporting “lawful innovation.” Chairman Michael Selig confirmed the agency will withdraw a prior proposal that would have banned sports- and political-related contracts. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi continue to grow rapidly, and CME is now partnering with FanDuel in the prediction-market space. With CME already planning 24/7 crypto derivatives trading, some believe this is a stepping stone toward round-the-clock trading in traditional commodity markets—an effort to avoid losing market share to online betting platforms. 🎲 ❄️ Ukraine Cold Threat & Wheat Support Extremely cold temperatures are forecast across much of Ukraine early next week, with readings potentially plunging well below zero. A large share of the country’s winter wheat crop currently lacks protective snow cover, raising winterkill concerns. These risks helped support wheat futures as traders also assessed lingering impacts from last week’s U.S. winter storm. 🌱 Soybeans Ease on Brazil Supply Soybean futures softened as Brazil’s harvest ramps up and expectations build for a record-large crop. After completing initial U.S. purchases, China is expected to shift more demand toward Brazilian supplies. A weak U.S. dollar, however, continues to provide underlying support by improving export competitiveness. 🚢 Weekly Export Sales U.S. corn export sales slowed from last week’s near-record pace, while soybean sales also declined. Wheat sales came in near the upper end of expectations. Japan was the top buyer for corn and wheat, while China led soybean purchases. 🛢️ Oil Rallies on Middle East Risk Crude oil prices surged amid rising U.S.–Iran tensions. Markets are reacting to fears of supply disruptions, particularly the risk of instability in the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil chokepoint. 🌧️ US Drought Update USDA’s latest drought monitor showed limited improvement across much of the Corn Belt due to frozen ground conditions, though some areas did see relief. Drought conditions worsened in parts of the High Plains.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Welcome back! Grain futures finished higher Wednesday as a weaker US dollar, biofuel headlines, and weather concerns provided support across ag and macro markets. Here’s what moved markets today 👇 🌽 Grain Markets Corn and soybeans ended the session modestly higher, supported by a sharply weaker US dollar, which improves US export competitiveness. President Trump said Congress is close to approving year-round E15, and that new biofuel guidelines are nearing completion—adding support to corn demand expectations. Wheat also closed higher as traders continue to assess potential crop impacts from the recent winter storm. In my view, developing dryness and a hot/dry forecast in Argentina likely played a role in row crop strength as well. See the map from our friends at CropProphet below. 🌾 Ethanol Update US ethanol production declined modestly last week, though output remains higher than the same week last year. Ethanol stocks also fell week over week and year over year. According to Reuters data, ethanol margins weakened across the Corn Belt and are currently negative to breakeven, reflecting softer profitability. Margins improved slightly following Monday’s corn selloff. 🐄 Livestock & Animal Health The NCBA warned that it is likely only a matter of time before New World screwworm reaches the US. NCBA President Buck Wehrbein said the pest is more likely to enter via wildlife than cattle imports and emphasized that the US successfully eradicated screwworm in the 1960s. Recent rumors of screwworm already reaching the US triggered sharp selling in live and feeder cattle futures last week. 🥇 Precious Metals & Margins CME Group raised margin requirements on precious metal futures following the historic rally in gold and silver. Higher margins mean traders will need more capital to hold positions, potentially limiting participation by smaller traders. Silver and gold both hit record highs before settling lower on the day. For perspective: silver at ~$117/oz is roughly equivalent to trading $117 corn or soybeans, with a contract value near $585,000. 🏦 Federal Reserve The Fed held interest rates steady, with two governors dissenting in favor of a cut. Inflation remains above target, while labor markets show signs of stabilization. Jerome Powell’s term ends in May, after which President Trump will appoint a new Fed chair. Futures markets are pricing in limited rate cuts this year and none in 2027. 👉 Like, subscribe, and drop a comment with what you’re watching in grains, livestock, or macro. Staying informed matters—especially in markets like these.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Welcome back to the channel! In today’s update, we cover Trump’s comments on year-round E15, growing weakness in the U.S. dollar, 2026 acreage debates, heat stress in Argentina, fresh USDA flash sales, and China’s latest soybean buying behavior. ⛽🇺🇸 E15, Trump & The Fed President Trump visited Iowa and said Congress is very close to approving year-round E15 sales Comments come after the White House failed to include E15 language in the current funding bill.  Trump declared the U.S. is entering a “golden age.” He said a new Fed Chair announcement is coming soon and predicted significantly lower interest rates.  💵📉 U.S. Dollar Breakdown The dollar hit its weakest level in nearly four years.  Pressure is coming from policy uncertainty, fiscal risks, and political polarization.  Euro, yen, and Swiss franc are at multi-year highs.  Emerging-market currencies are trading at record levels.  Investors are paying record premiums to hedge against further dollar weakness.  🌽🌱 2026 Acreage Debate S&P Global estimates corn acreage at 95 million and soybeans at 84.5 million.  Higher corn input costs and crop rotation favor soybean.  China’s renewed soybean purchases add support to bean acres.  NCGA projects an $180/acre loss for corn.  Pro Farmer notes fertilizer already applied and historical trends could keep corn acres elevated.  Crop insurance guarantees in February will be key.  🔥🇦🇷 Argentina Weather Stress Temps nearing 104°F across major growing regions.  Limited rain until February raises yield risks.  USDA estimates: 53 mmt corn, 48.5 mmt soybeans.  Planting nearly complete, but pasture conditions are deteriorating.  Meal markets remain quiet; bean oil strong amid biofuel sentiment.  🚢📊 USDA Flash Sales 110,000 mt of corn sold to unknown destinations (2025/26) 306,000 mt of sorghum sold to unknown destinations (2025/26) First U.S. sorghum flash sale since August 2024.  🇨🇳🌎 China Soybean Buying China booked at least 25 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans for Mar–Apr shipment.  Brazil holds a strong price advantage over U.S. beans.  China has now fulfilled its ~12 mmt U.S. purchase commitment.  Recent U.S. buying appears obligation-driven, not structural.  With large South American crops expected, China likely avoids U.S. beans until new crop this fall. 

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🧪 Fertilizer Market & USDA Action The USDA is taking a closer look at potential collusion in the fertilizer industry. Last week, Deputy Agriculture Secretary Stephen Vaden accused fertilizer giants Nutrien and Mosaic of working to limit supply and keep prices elevated. The two companies accounted for more than 90% of North American phosphate fertilizer and potash production last year. A proposed new potash mine in Saskatchewan could weaken their market control and add supply to the U.S. market as early as next year. USDA officials say they are closely monitoring fertilizer markets and could take action to boost competition if needed. Vaden also took aim at farm equipment manufacturers, backing the administration’s push for right-to-repair protections for farmers. 🌽 Biofuels Policy & 45Z Tax Credit Clean Fuels Alliance America is urging the Trump administration to release the proposed 45Z tax credit rules. The request comes after the White House completed its review of the rule. According to the biofuels group, clearer guidance is needed to reduce uncertainty and support biodiesel, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel production. They warned that continued delays could jeopardize investments, production, and rural jobs, while final rules could boost commodity demand and rural economic activity. President Trump is scheduled to speak today in Clive, Iowa, where energy and economic issues are expected to be front and center. While there’s some chatter about a possible biofuel announcement, nothing is confirmed. 🌾 Wheat, Corn & Soybean Markets Wheat futures moved lower on Monday. The CBOT March contract fell to around $5.23 after earlier touching the highest level since mid-December. Cold weather in the High Plains raised concerns over crop damage, but snowfall helped insulate much of the wheat belt. Some damage was reported in parts of Nebraska, northeastern Colorado, and northwestern Kansas. 🚢 Export Inspections U.S. corn shipments were strong last week. USDA reported 1.5 million metric tons of corn inspected for export, higher than both the previous week and last year. Soybean inspections totaled 1.3 million metric tons, slightly lower week-to-week but sharply higher year-over-year, with China accounting for the majority of shipments. Wheat inspections were weaker, trailing both last week and last year. 🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Update AgRural raised its forecast for Brazil’s soybean crop again, now calling for a record harvest. Corn production estimates were also nudged higher. Soybean harvest and second-crop corn planting are both running ahead of last year’s pace, while first-crop corn harvest is slightly behind. Rainfall has been mostly average, though southern areas remain somewhat dry. Based on current estimates, Brazil’s soybean crop would be substantially larger than the U.S. crop.  🔥 Natural Gas & Winter Storm Impact Natural gas prices surged to their highest level in years as Winter Storm Fern swept across the U.S., driving up heating demand. The storm knocked out power to hundreds of thousands of customers and disrupted roughly 10% of U.S. natural gas production. In response, the Department of Energy issued emergency orders aimed at stabilizing power grids and reducing blackout risks in New England and Texas.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🏛️ Government Shutdown Risk The risk of a partial government shutdown is rising as the Senate prepares to vote later this week on a House-passed $1.2 trillion funding package. Following another fatal shooting involving federal immigration agents in Minnesota, Democratic lawmakers are threatening to oppose the bill due to DHS and ICE funding concerns. Democrats argue the package lacks reforms to rein in ICE. While funding for many other agencies is included, there may still be enough Democratic support to avoid a shutdown. The last shutdown lasted 43 days and delayed key USDA and CFTC reports. Polymarket odds of a shutdown jumped sharply over the weekend. There is growing concern that previously approved FBA payments, currently slated for late February, could be delayed if a shutdown occurs. ❄️ Winter Storm & Cold Impacts This weekend’s winter storm delivered widespread snow and extreme cold across the Plains. Parts of HRW wheat country in the Southern Plains received beneficial snowfall, reducing winterkill risk. However, below-zero temperatures combined with snow created severe cold stress for livestock, limiting weight gains and increasing risks for producers in calving season. Wind chills in the Northern Plains plunged to extreme levels, while portions of Texas and Oklahoma face record lows with freezing temperatures expected to persist. Single-digit temperatures may linger another day or two in HRW wheat areas, while SRW wheat country in the Midwest remains locked in frigid conditions this week. 🌽 Grain Markets Corn futures advanced on Friday, led by strong export demand. The most active March contract settled higher, supported by near-record export sales and competitive U.S. prices on the global market. Growing concern over dry conditions in parts of South America has added uncertainty around crop potential. Soybean and wheat futures also posted gains. ⛽ E15 Left Out (Again) Farm groups and ethanol advocates are pushing back after Congress once again omitted year-round E15 sales from the funding package. Instead, lawmakers plan to form an E15 Rural Domestic Energy Council to study the issue. 🚢 Export Sales U.S. export sales were impressive last week: Corn sales set a marketing-year high, far exceeding expectations, with unknown destinations as the top buyer.  Soybean sales also hit a marketing-year high, with China leading purchases.  Wheat sales surpassed expectations, with unknown destinations again the largest buyer.  Overall, export demand remains a major source of support for the grain markets. 📊 CFTC Fund Positioning In the latest Commitment of Traders report, large money managers were net sellers across corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat. The net short position in corn is now the largest since late October, reflecting continued bearish positioning despite recent market strength. 🐄 Cattle on Feed Friday’s Cattle on Feed report came in largely neutral. Cattle on feed were below last year but slightly above expectations. Placements and marketings were both near or above pre-report estimates. Notably, heifers made up a large share of cattle on feed, signaling that many are still being fed rather than retained for herd rebuilding—an important long-term signal for the cattle market.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Farm Aid & Policy Update Additional farm aid was not included in the current government funding package, catching many lawmakers and farm groups off guard. Senate Republicans had pushed just last week to add up to $15B in aid, but that language was left out. With aid excluded for now, supporters say relief may need to come via supplemental appropriations or future legislation. Congress must pass the funding package by January 30 to avoid another government shutdown. It was also reported yesterday that nationwide E15 language was again dropped, though GOP leaders are discussing a possible supplemental bill that could allow year-round E15 sales. Major Winter Storm Risk A major winter storm is forecast to impact the Southern US this weekend. While the exact track remains uncertain, over 70 million people from Dallas to Little Rock to Nashville are currently under a winter storm watch. Snow, ice, dangerous travel conditions, and power outages are possible.  Snow cover remains limited across key HRW wheat areas in the Southern Plains. Temperatures in western Kansas and surrounding regions could fall into the single digits, raising the risk of winter kill depending on snow totals and duration. Livestock stress is also a concern. US–China Trade Watch US and Chinese officials may soon hold another round of trade talks ahead of the planned April meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. According to the US Trade Representative, negotiations would focus on common goods and services, avoiding sensitive areas like tech and national security. China has already fulfilled its commitment to purchase 12 mmt of US soybeans. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said both sides are now looking ahead to China’s pledge to buy 25 mmt annually through 2028, though Trump continues to push for larger volumes. Europe, Greenland & Tariffs President Trump announced he will refrain from imposing new tariffs on European countries, following meetings at the World Economic Forum. He stated that a framework for a future deal involving Greenland has been reached, marking a major shift from prior tariff threats. While details remain limited, Denmark continues to oppose any US takeover. Grain Market Recap Soybean futures rebounded Wednesday, with the most-active Mar26 contract gaining roughly 12 cents, settling near $10.65. Support came from a slow start to Brazil’s soybean harvest due to rainfall in northern regions, along with comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent pointing to ongoing Chinese demand for US soybeans. Global Protein Trade China has reopened its market to Canadian beef imports, ending a ban that had been in place since 2021. Initial shipments are expected to be small, but the move is a positive long-term opportunity for Canada’s cattle industry. Meanwhile, US beef exports to China have declined sharply over the past year amid ongoing trade tensions. India & Wheat Exports India has approved the export of 500,000 tons of wheat flour and related products. Wheat exports had been restricted since May 2022, but a strong monsoon is expected to boost domestic supplies. India is typically self-sufficient in wheat and is sometimes a net exporter. Its re-entry into the export market is considered a bearish factor for global wheat prices.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇨🇳 China & U.S. Soybeans China has reportedly completed its ~12 mmt U.S. soybean purchase, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Shipments are expected to move by May Focus now shifts to China’s 25 mmt annual soybean pledge over the next three years Despite that pledge, South American soybeans remain more competitive, likely capping U.S. demand Ongoing economic strain and a smaller hog herd could further weigh on Chinese soybean usage 📌 Important context: USDA has only confirmed 8.1 mmt of soybean sales to China so far Roughly half of recent “Unknown” sales likely end up in China, plus some unreported intra-house business Even at 12 mmt, purchases are well below the ~22.5 mmt China bought last marketing year That’s why USDA cut its U.S. soybean export forecast last week 📉 Grain Markets Soybeans: Mar ’26 contract slipped ~5¢, settling near $10.53 Pressure came from: Rising geopolitical tensions over Greenland Expectations for a record Brazilian soybean crop Corn: Mar ’26 futures eased ~1¢ to $4.24 🚜 Farm Economy Reality Check Farmers face tight margins after years of weak prices and rising costs New York farmer Ron Robbins used detailed field-level data to: Fallow unprofitable acres Improve marginal land Shift some acres from soybeans to corn His takeaway: the downturn may be the new normal—reassessment is no longer optional 🚢 Weekly Export Shipments (USDA) Corn: Strong print, beating expectations Soybeans: Near top end of estimates; China took 46% of the week’s volume Wheat: Also near the high end of expectations YTD snapshot: Soybean shipments: well below last year Corn shipments: well ahead of last year China-bound soybean cargoes shipped via both PNW and Gulf 🌱 Flash Sale USDA confirmed a soybean meal sale to the Philippines for next marketing year 🌍 Macro & Markets Japan’s bond market saw sharp turmoil after fiscal concerns and a weak auction Long-dated yields spiked, spilling into global credit markets S&P 500 logged its largest one-day drop since October A weaker dollar failed to spark meaningful buying in ag ₿ Bitcoin Watch Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) has gone all-in again: Massive recent Bitcoin purchases Now the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globally Strategy uses Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve, funded largely through debt issuance CEO Michael Saylor remains controversial due to the aggressive approach

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🚜 Farm Aid & Government Funding Senate Republicans are pushing for an additional farm aid package, potentially totaling up to $15 billion (not yet confirmed). The proposal includes: Additional bridge payments Support for specialty crop producers Higher farm ownership and operating loan limits Aid for farmers who suffered losses above the national average or were forced to sell at depressed prices Lawmakers plan to attach the measure to upcoming government funding legislation Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) payments remain scheduled for February 28 A possible government shutdown on January 30 could: Delay FBA payments Delay any new farm aid package The House and Senate have passed several spending bills, but key issues remain unresolved 🌍 Global Trade & Geopolitics President Trump announced new tariffs on NATO allies over Greenland 10% tariffs begin February 1 Increase to 25% on June 1 Tariffs remain until the US is able to purchase Greenland The EU is weighing retaliatory trade measures Trump also said he would consider using force if negotiations fail Market reaction: S&P 500 futures down 1.8% European and UK equities sharply lower US dollar weaker against major currencies 🇨🇦🇨🇳 Canada–China Trade Deal China will reduce tariffs on Canadian canola oil from 85% to 15% by March 1 Tariffs also reduced on: Lobsters Crabs Peas Canada will impose a 6.1% tariff on Chinese EVs China has reportedly purchased its first Canadian canola cargo since October Canada continues diversifying trade away from the US 🌱 South American Crop Update Brazil’s soybean harvest is ahead of schedule 2% harvested as of last Thursday vs. 1.7% at the same time last year Rainfall has been near normal overall, with slightly drier conditions in southern areas World Weather notes a La Niña-style dry bias, but says it’s unlikely to threaten production 📊 Fund Positioning (CFTC) Large speculators were heavy sellers last week: Corn: Net sellers of 78k contracts Net short now 91k (largest since late October) Soybeans: Net sellers of 46k contracts Net short 20k (largest since mid-October) Wheat: Net buyers of 1k SRW contracts 🚢 Export Activity USDA reported multiple corn flash sales: 298k mt to unknown destinations 120k mt to Japan Both sales are for the 2025/26 marketing year Accumulated corn sales are now 29% higher than last year 🐄 Cattle Market Shock Live and feeder cattle futures plunged Friday on screwworm concerns Texas officials report 14 active cases within 200 miles of the US border The pest is expected to eventually reach the US Market reaction: Live cattle down as much as $4.45 Feeder cattle down as much as $8.10

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Farm Economy Under Pressure Headlines this week focused squarely on the deteriorating US farm economy. The Wall Street Journal published an article detailing the challenges facing US soybean farmers, including high input costs, weak commodity prices, rising competition from Brazil, and sluggish export demand. The piece also referenced USDA’s $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program, noting that while helpful in the short term, it does not address deeper structural issues. Reuters published similar coverage, emphasizing tighter bank lending standards, increasing financial stress, and a rise in farm bankruptcies. Together, the articles underscore mounting pressure on farmers and the broader ripple effects across rural America.  Soybean Oil & Biofuels Soybean oil futures surged on Thursday, gaining as much as 3.8% on expectations that the Trump administration will finalize US biofuel-blending quotas by March. Last June, the EPA proposed a sizable increase in biomass-based diesel targets, which would significantly boost soybean oil demand. There is optimism that stronger biofuel demand could help offset weak soybean export performance. NOPA Crush Update The National Oilseed Processors Association released its December crush report, showing US soybean crush at its second-highest level on record. NOPA members processed 224.99 million bushels, up 4.1% from November and 8.9% from December 2024, slightly above trade expectations. For full-year 2025, crush totaled nearly 2.4 billion bushels—an 8% increase from 2024. End-of-month soybean oil stocks rose to 1.64 billion pounds, the highest level since May 2024, up sharply from both last month and last year, though just below average trade estimates. Brazil Soybean Crop Brazil’s soybean crop is shaping up to be record large. Agroconsult raised its estimate to 182.2 mmt, citing strong field conditions and limited widespread issues. Meanwhile, Conab trimmed its estimate slightly to 176.1 mmt due to marginally lower yield expectations. Even so, the crop remains record large and would exceed last season’s production.  Export Sales US corn export sales impressed last week, with net sales of 1.1 mmt. While down from the prior four-week average, the number was a strong rebound from the previous week. Mexico was the top buyer. Soybean sales exceeded expectations at 2.1 mmt, up sharply week-over-week and well above the recent average. China was the largest buyer. Wheat sales came in near the low end of expectations at 156,300 mt, with unknown destinations leading purchases. USDA Flash Sales USDA reported multiple flash sales on Thursday: Soybeans sold to China and unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery Additional soybean sales for 2026/27 delivery Corn sales to Japan and unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery Drought Monitor Update USDA’s latest drought data showed mixed but generally improving conditions across parts of the Corn Belt and High Plains. Above-normal precipitation helped reduce drought intensity in portions of Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, and Kansas, while conditions worsened slightly in southern Missouri. US Areas Experiencing Drought Corn: 28% Soybeans: 34% Winter Wheat: 41% Spring Wheat: 10% Cattle: 34%

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Argentina Corn Crop Update Argentina’s corn crop is shaping up to be record large. The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its estimate to 62 mmt, well above the prior record of 51.5 mmt set in the 2023/24 season. The increase reflects more planted acres than expected. Despite recent hot and dry conditions, crop stress has been limited, and rainfall is forecast for key growing areas. For comparison, the USDA is currently projecting Argentina’s corn crop at 53 mmt. 📈 Corn & Soybean Futures Corn and soybean futures finished higher on Wednesday, bouncing from oversold levels. March corn settled near $4.22 March soybeans closed around $10.43 The gains were largely technical after futures fell to their lowest levels since October earlier this week following Monday’s bearish USDA report. 🔥 US Ethanol Production US ethanol production surged to a new all-time high last week. Output jumped to 1.2 million barrels per day, crushing the prior record set in December. Ethanol stocks also climbed to a record weekly high of 24.47 million barrels. According to Reuters data, ethanol margins remain solid across the Corn Belt, running 10 to 40 cents positive based on spot corn, DDGs, and input prices. Margins improved following Monday’s sharp sell-off in corn futures. 🇨🇳 China Soybean Imports China imported a record 111.8 mmt of soybeans in 2025, topping the prior record set in 2024. Imports rose 6.5% year over year as buyers front-loaded shipments from Brazil and Argentina amid trade war uncertainty. China largely avoided US soybeans during the year due to President Trump’s tariffs, but purchases resumed after the October trade truce. Traders estimate China has already bought nearly 10 mmt of the 12 mmt it committed to under the agreement. 🚢 USDA Flash Sales The USDA reported multiple flash sales on Wednesday: 136,000 mt of corn sold to South Korea 334,000 mt of soybeans sold to China Both were for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year. 🥈 Silver & Gold Hit Records Silver prices exploded to a new record high, surging more than 5% and breaking above $90 per ounce for the first time. The rally was fueled by renewed attacks on the Federal Reserve, expectations for additional rate cuts, and rising geopolitical tensions. Silver is now up nearly 30% year-to-date and almost triple where it traded a year ago. Gold also hit record highs, with prices up more than 70% over the past year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Ethanol & E15 Push The Renewable Fuels Association is calling for year-round, nationwide sales of E15 following Monday’s bearish USDA report. The group says allowing E15 nationwide could eventually create demand for more than 2 billion bushels of corn and sorghum. The RFA is urging Congress to pass the Ethanol for America Act, finalize Renewable Fuel Standard volume requirements, limit small refinery exemptions, and reallocate any waived volumes. Despite the push, year-round E15 is unlikely to materially boost ethanol demand in the near term: Infrastructure: Many stations would need upgraded tanks, pumps, gaskets, and EPA sign-offs Consumer behavior: Most drivers don’t know what E15 is and are hesitant to buy it Production capacity: US ethanol production is already near capacity An E15 mandate would be the fastest way to meaningfully increase corn demand—but that would require new plants, new infrastructure, and billions of dollars. 🚜 Trade Policy Risk: USMCA President Trump said this week that the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement is now “irrelevant” and no longer benefits the US. The agreement is up for review this year, with renewal requiring all three countries to agree by July 1. Mexico has been the largest buyer of US corn in recent years. Any disruption to USMCA would be a major risk to corn exports. See chart below. 🥩 Beef Prices Hit New Records Ground beef prices averaged $6.82/lb in December, up 16% year over year. Steak prices averaged $12.51/lb, up 18%. Beef prices remain a major driver of higher food costs and are expected to keep rising into 2026 due to historically low US cattle inventories and new dietary guidelines encouraging higher animal-protein consumption. See beef charts below. 🌱 Soybean Flash Sales USDA reported multiple soybean flash sales on Tuesday: 168,000 mt to China 152,404 mt to Mexico Both are for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year. 📊 Inflation Update The December CPI showed inflation at 2.7% year over year, unchanged from November and in line with expectations. Food prices jumped 0.7% month over month, the largest increase since October 2022. Despite tariff concerns, inflation remains relatively stable, and the report is unlikely to change the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts. See CPI chart below. 🌎 Largest US Landowner The owner of the LA Rams and Denver Nuggets is now the largest landowner in the US. Stan Kroenke recently purchased 1 million acres in New Mexico, bringing his total US landholdings to over 2.7 million acres. Other top landowners include: Emmerson Family: ~2.5 million acres John Malone: ~2.2 million acres Ted Turner: ~2.0 million acres Jeff Bezos: ~462,000 acres Bill Gates: ~275,000 acres

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Corn Corn futures plunged on Monday, with prices down nearly 6%, marking the largest single-day decline since June 2023. The selloff followed a decidedly bearish report from the USDA. The agency raised its estimate of the 2025 U.S. corn crop to a record 17.02 billion bushels, up 269 million bushels from the prior forecast. USDA also increased last year’s national average yield to a record 186.5 bpa, up from 186 bpa previously. Many analysts had expected cuts to both production and yield following dry fall conditions, making the revisions a surprise. USDA also boosted December 1 corn stocks to 13.3 billion bushels, the largest Dec. 1 corn stocks on record. 🌾 Winter Wheat US winter wheat acreage is expected to decline marginally for the 2026 crop. USDA estimates 33.0 million acres planted, slightly below last year’s 33.2 million acres but above analyst expectations of 32.4 million. Notably, USDA is forecasting record-low winter wheat acres in Nebraska and California. Hard red winter wheat: slightly lower year over year Soft red winter wheat: modest increase White winter wheat: sharp decline 🚜 Farm Policy & Aid The American Farm Bureau Federation is calling for additional farmer aid. AFBF President Zippy Duvall said the Trump administration’s $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance program is welcomed, but falls far short of offsetting tens of billions of dollars in recent farm losses. Duvall is urging: Expanded trade opportunities Labor reform Year-round approval of E15, which could boost corn demand and lower fuel costs Farm Bureau supports greater market access for U.S. agriculture while opposing President Trump’s tariffs. 🚢 Exports & Demand US soybean shipments beat expectations last week. USDA reported 1.5 mmt (56 mil bu) of soybeans inspected for export during the week ending January 8 — up 55% week over week and up 13% year over year. China accounted for 59% of the total. Corn inspections: 1.5 mmt (59 mil bu), near the upper end of expectations Wheat inspections: 317,465 mt (12 mil bu), sharply higher week over week USDA also announced multiple flash sales of corn: 204,000 mt to South Korea 310,000 mt to unknown destinations Both for 2025/26 delivery. 🏛️ Macro & Markets Republican lawmakers are pushing back against the Justice Department’s investigation into Jerome Powell, arguing it could undermine Fed independence. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly warned President Donald Trump that the probe could spook financial markets. Trump denied knowledge of the investigation, which comes amid months of pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates further. The controversy could complicate Trump’s efforts to nominate Powell’s successor.