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With the 2026 midterms approaching, Kalee Kreider joins Will Brown and Adam Eagleston for a candid look at the political landscape—and why the current environment reminds her of the 1994 wave election. Kalee argues that voters keep swinging against whichever party holds power, as administrations mistake narrow wins for broad mandates. Her prediction? A Democratic takeover of both chambers of Congress, with the size of the shift still very much up for debate. The conversation digs into an unusually wide Senate map, from Texas, Ohio and Michigan to places like Kansas, Iowa and Alaska. Candidate quality, money and redistricting all matter, but Kalee questions how far any of them can go when the political winds change. She also explains how Washington and corporate America are already preparing for a possible change in congressional control, from shifting advisory relationships and potential investigations to a packed lame-duck legislative calendar. And politics is only part of the equation. Will, Adam and Kalee connect the expanding conflicts in Iran and Ukraine with stubborn pressure on oil, diesel and other essential inputs. They also examine the grid, permitting and power challenges facing an AI-driven data-center buildout, and what a slowdown could mean for markets. The episode closes with a distinctly Tea & Crumpets-style wager on 2028, including Kalee's unexpected theory about what 'Trump 2028' might really mean. In this episode: Why Kalee sees echoes of 1994 and expects a challenging midterm election for Republicans. The Senate races to watch, including Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Maine and unexpected battlegrounds. How candidate quality, campaign spending and aggressive redistricting can backfire. What a shift in Congress could mean for companies, investigations and the lame-duck legislative scramble. How war, energy prices and grid-permitting bottlenecks could complicate the economics of the AI boom. A provocative early prediction for the 2028 presidential race, plus a look at the Democrats' possible contenders. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

On the surface, markets still look remarkably durable. Underneath, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston see a much more complicated picture. In Episode 107 of Tea & Crumpets, they start with the forces keeping interest rates elevated, including persistent inflation, heavy government borrowing, rising oil and diesel costs, and a global bond market that is showing increasing signs of strain. From there, the conversation turns to what may be hiding beneath strong index-level performance. Will and Adam dig into narrow market leadership, weakness across financials, widening high-yield spreads, and the possibility that credit markets could provide the first real warning if conditions begin to deteriorate. They also examine how higher Treasury yields are changing the relative appeal of corporate debt and putting more pressure on companies that have borrowed aggressively. AI remains a major part of the story, but the discussion shifts from the technology itself to the economics behind it. The hosts look at massive hyperscaler spending, increasingly creative financing, steep private-company valuations, data-center bottlenecks, rising electricity demand, and the difference between a transformative technology and a consistently profitable business. The market may still have momentum, but this episode is a reminder that resilience at the top of the index does not mean risk has disappeared underneath it. In this episode: Why inflation, fiscal deficits, oil prices, and global bond selling continue to matter for interest rates How geopolitical conflict is filtering through diesel, transportation costs, consumer prices, and the bond market Why record or near-record index levels can mask much weaker market breadth beneath the surface What widening credit spreads and stress in private credit could be signaling about the next phase of the market How AI spending, debt financing, leasing structures, and extreme valuations are changing the economics of the technology boom Why grid capacity, permitting, electricity costs, earnings growth, and the 2026 midterms could all influence where markets go next Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

For the first time, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston are actually sharing the same room, complete with real tea, real crumpets, and plenty to unpack. Against a backdrop of continued geopolitical uncertainty, they start with the energy markets, where disruptions to shipping, refining capacity, and global oil inventories are creating increasingly unusual dynamics between crude oil, diesel, and other refined products. From there, the conversation turns to what higher energy costs could mean beyond the pump. Will and Adam explore the potential ripple effects on inflation, wages, transportation costs, interest rates, and the bond market, while examining how government borrowing and enormous amounts of hyperscaler debt issuance are competing for capital. They also discuss why equity markets have remained remarkably resilient despite higher rates, energy prices, and persistent economic uncertainty. Finally, the discussion shifts to artificial intelligence and the enormous investment boom surrounding it. Will and Adam question how much of recent technology-sector earnings growth reflects traditional operating performance versus rising valuations of private AI investments, while also examining the capital intensity of AI, the economics of frontier models, and the massive power requirements still ahead. With only a fraction of planned data center capacity built, the AI story may increasingly become an energy, infrastructure, and capital-allocation story as much as a technology one. In this episode: Why diesel and crude oil prices have diverged so dramatically The potential inflationary impact of higher energy and transportation costs What shrinking global oil inventories could mean for markets Why bond yields remain under pressure despite efforts to contain rates How private AI investments are affecting reported technology earnings The enormous capital and power requirements behind the AI buildout Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

In this episode of Tea & Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston break down a market that continues to send conflicting signals. They examine rising oil and commodity prices, renewed inflation concerns, climbing bond yields, government debt, and growing intervention in markets that are becoming increasingly difficult to price. They also look at the massive influence of AI and data center spending on the economy, including rising power demand, utility infrastructure needs, and the effect of private AI investments on Big Tech earnings. With stocks still holding near record highs despite mounting pressures, Will and Adam discuss whether current earnings growth and valuations are as durable as they appear. The conversation also turns to the risks created by market concentration, increased competition across the technology sector, and the potential for government intervention to delay necessary market adjustments. Against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty, persistent inflation, and enormous capital spending, they consider where risks may be building and where investors may still find opportunities. In this episode: Rising energy prices and inflation pressure Higher bond yields and growing government debt AI, data centers, and surging power demand Big Tech earnings and AI valuation concerns Market intervention and distorted price signals Where investors may still find opportunity Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

After a summer hiatus, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston return to examine a market that appears to be reaching an important inflection point. They discuss the Federal Reserve's increasingly difficult balancing act as inflation remains stubbornly above target, government debt and interest payments continue to climb, and geopolitical tensions threaten to keep energy prices elevated. The conversation explores why these macroeconomic forces could shape the next phase of the market and what investors should be watching in the months ahead. The episode also takes a deeper dive into the technology sector, where the AI investment boom continues to dominate headlines. Will and Adam question whether massive capital expenditures, lofty valuations, and aggressive accounting assumptions can continue to support today's market leaders. They examine the growing risks facing semiconductor companies, the role China may play in compressing industry margins, and why software and other fundamentally strong businesses may be poised to benefit as investors shift their attention back to sustainable earnings and disciplined execution. Throughout the discussion, the hosts emphasize that periods when investing feels easy are often the most dangerous. As speculative enthusiasm begins to cool and market leadership broadens, they make the case that careful research, sound fundamentals, and a value-oriented approach are becoming increasingly important. It's a thoughtful conversation on separating durable opportunities from market hype while navigating an environment filled with economic uncertainty and rapidly changing market dynamics. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

Summer is officially underway, and Will Brown and Adam Eagleston waste no time diving into the headlines shaping markets, energy, and investor sentiment. Against the backdrop of global soccer fever, the duo examines the recently announced Iran-related memorandum of understanding and what it could mean for oil prices, inflation, and the Federal Reserve. While markets initially cheered the agreement, Will and Adam explore the deeper supply-and-demand dynamics that could keep energy prices elevated and complicate the Fed's path forward. The conversation then shifts to one of the market's hottest stories: the explosive rise of SpaceX and the broader AI-driven investment boom. Will and Adam discuss massive valuations, index inclusion decisions, leveraged ETF activity, and the growing concentration of market performance in a handful of technology and AI-related companies. Along the way, they raise important questions about capital spending, earnings quality, shareholder dilution, and whether investors are accurately assessing the risks embedded in today's most popular trades. Wrapping up the episode, Will and Adam examine the increasingly interconnected nature of AI spending, corporate earnings, and index performance. They debate whether current growth expectations are sustainable, discuss the role of passive investing in amplifying market moves, and caution investors about the potential consequences if lofty expectations begin to crack. From oil markets and AI speculation to Fed policy and investor behavior, Will and Adam break it all down with their signature blend of insight, skepticism, and humor. Topics Discussed: The Iran memorandum of understanding and its impact on oil markets Inflation, retail sales, and the Fed's policy challenges SpaceX's soaring valuation and market influence AI spending, capital expenditures, and earnings growth Index concentration and passive investing risks Equity issuance, shareholder dilution, and market speculation The outlook for technology stocks and broader market leadership Potential risks lurking beneath record market highs Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

In this episode of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston dive into a market that appears remarkably calm on the surface while a growing list of geopolitical and economic risks continues to build beneath it. From escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over global energy supply to record stock market levels and speculative enthusiasm surrounding AI and upcoming IPOs, our host explore the growing disconnect between market optimism and economic reality. Will and Adam discuss the potential consequences of prolonged disruptions to global oil markets, including the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, declining energy inventories, and the possibility of a significant spike in oil prices. They examine how higher energy costs could ripple through the broader economy, impacting consumers, inflation, corporate earnings, and ultimately market valuations. The conversation then shifts to the stock market's continued climb to all-time highs, fueled largely by AI-related investments and a handful of mega-cap technology companies. While acknowledging strong earnings growth among select firms, the Will and Adam question whether current valuations accurately reflect long-term realities, highlighting concerns around accounting treatment, capital expenditures, speculative behavior, and the growing influence of retail investors. They also explore the changing structure of markets, the rise of passive investing, and the implications of major upcoming IPOs—including the highly anticipated SpaceX offering. They debate whether today's environment more closely resembles previous periods of technological innovation or the late stages of historical market bubbles. Whether you're following global events, navigating today's markets, or simply trying to make sense of the headlines, this episode offers a thoughtful examination of the forces shaping the investment landscape—and the potential consequences if current trends continue. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

In the 100th episode of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston celebrate the podcast's century mark by welcoming returning guest Kalee Kreider for a timely and expansive discussion on geopolitics, inflation, energy markets, and the growing disconnect between financial markets and economic realities on the ground. As Part 1 of this special two-part release, the conversation opens with reflections on reaching 100 episodes before quickly shifting into a deeper examination of the global and domestic pressures shaping the current economic environment.   Kalee offers a unique perspective from both Washington, D.C. and rural Tennessee, highlighting how rising fuel prices, fertilizer shortages, drought conditions, and increasing property taxes are putting mounting pressure on farmers and middle-income households. The discussion explores how disruptions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz could have long-lasting consequences across industries far beyond gasoline prices, including agriculture, plastics, semiconductors, transportation, and airline travel. The group also examines how energy infrastructure shutdowns are not easily reversible, warning that even if geopolitical tensions eased quickly, the process of restoring supply chains and production capacity could take months or years.   Throughout the episode, the trio debates whether markets and policymakers are underestimating the scale of the risks ahead, particularly as inflation remains persistent and consumers continue to feel squeezed despite stronger equity markets. The conversation touches on historical parallels to the mid-2000s economic cycle, the difficult position facing the Federal Reserve, and the possibility that demand destruction could eventually force rate cuts amid a slowing economy. Blending macroeconomic analysis with the humor and chemistry that have defined Tea and Crumpets over its first 100 episodes, Part 1 sets the stage for an even deeper continuation in Episode 101.   Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

In Part 2 of this special 100th episode celebration of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston continue their wide-ranging conversation with returning guest Kalee Kreider, diving deeper into the political, economic, and cultural consequences of the current geopolitical and financial environment. Building on the themes from Episode 100, the discussion shifts toward the upcoming U.S. election cycle, the evolving identity crisis within both political parties, and the broader implications of polarization, redistricting, and shifting voter coalitions.   Kalee offers candid insight into why she believes Democrats are positioned to potentially retake both the House and Senate, while also cautioning that wave elections are rarely permanent and often produce only temporary political realignments. The conversation explores the changing nature of American politics, the future of Trump-era Republicanism, and whether Donald Trump represents a singular political figure or the beginning of a longer generational movement. The group also examines growing distrust in institutions and expertise following Covid, the influence of AI and technology on market psychology, and the increasingly fragile balance between economic optimism and geopolitical reality.   The episode expands into broader discussions around military spending, drone warfare, NATO, energy security, and the long-term consequences of global remilitarization as tensions with Iran continue to escalate. The hosts debate the resilience of the U.S. dollar, concerns surrounding government debt and deficits, and the possibility that markets are displaying what they repeatedly describe as "irrational optimism" in the face of mounting systemic risks. Despite the heavy subject matter, the conversation maintains the humor and chemistry that have defined Tea and Crumpets across its first 100 episodes, closing with stories about distilleries, horse racing, bourbon, farming, and family history that bring a lighter and more personal finish to the landmark two-part discussion.   Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

In this episode of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston dive into a rapidly evolving geopolitical and economic landscape shaped by escalating tensions in the Middle East. With a fragile ceasefire in place and ongoing uncertainty surrounding key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz, the conversation explores how quickly conditions on the ground, and in the markets, are shifting. They highlight the difficulty of interpreting real-time information in an environment flooded with conflicting narratives and misinformation. At the center of the discussion is the global energy market, where disruptions to oil supply chains are already creating ripple effects. Will and Adam unpack the complexities of oil pricing, the divergence between spot and futures markets, and the downstream consequences for inflation, supply chains, and consumer costs. They explain how restricted access to critical shipping lanes and selective distribution of oil are distorting global trade flows, while also emphasizing how energy shocks historically increase the likelihood of recession. Beyond energy, the episode expands into broader economic risks, including weakening consumer sentiment, a softening labor outlook, and structural challenges tied to AI disruption and private credit markets. Will and Adam outline three major threats facing the economy (geopolitical conflict, financial system fragility, and workforce disruption) while also acknowledging the surprising resilience of equity markets so far. Despite the uncertainty, they close with a balanced perspective: volatility may create meaningful risks, but it also opens the door for selective opportunities in a rapidly changing investment landscape. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

In episode 98 of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston address a rapidly unfolding geopolitical and market situation, as well as the broader assumptions investors have been relying on. What begins as a discussion of escalating tensions in the Middle East quickly turns into a deeper examination of how fragile global energy infrastructure, shifting policy decisions, and uncertain military outcomes are colliding in real time. The hosts highlight how quickly sentiment can swing, with markets reacting sharply to both escalation and temporary de-escalation, underscoring just how sensitive the current environment has become. The conversation then moves into the structural implications of sustained disruption. Will and Adam explore the cascading effects of constrained oil supply, damage to critical infrastructure, and the logistical challenges of restarting energy production once it's been halted. They emphasize that even without further escalation, the duration of the conflict alone introduces long-term risks, particularly in energy markets, inflation expectations, and global trade flows. These pressures are already beginning to surface in bond markets and interest rate expectations, raising concerns that higher inflation could become more entrenched and more difficult to manage. Beyond geopolitics, the episode widens its lens to include additional stress points building beneath the surface. The hosts discuss the potential for forced asset sales by sovereign wealth funds, the growing complexity and opacity of private credit markets, and the role artificial intelligence is playing in reshaping labor markets and corporate behavior. Together, these factors create a market environment defined less by a single narrative and more by a widening range of possible outcomes, making traditional forecasting increasingly difficult and reinforcing a more cautious approach to risk. Throughout the episode, Will and Adam stress that uncertainty, not just negative news, is the dominant force shaping markets today. They encourage investors to remain disciplined, avoid reactionary decisions, and focus on positioning portfolios for resilience rather than chasing past winners. As the episode concludes, they leave listeners with a clear message: this is a moment that demands attention, patience, and a willingness to adapt as conditions continue to evolve. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

In this episode of Tea and Crumpets, Adam Eagleston and Will Brown examine a rapidly evolving global environment where geopolitics, energy markets, and structural risks in finance are colliding. The discussion begins with the escalating conflict involving Iran and Israel and the immediate shock to global oil markets, where prices surged dramatically before partially retracing. Adam and Will explore how disruptions to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure and shipping routes could tighten global supply, increase inflation pressure, and complicate monetary policy decisions for the Federal Reserve. The conversation then shifts to deeper vulnerabilities within financial markets. The hosts highlight growing concerns in private credit, where opaque lending structures and redemption pressures are beginning to surface across large institutional funds. They discuss how these off-balance-sheet lending vehicles have expanded rapidly and may introduce systemic risk if underlying assets are forced to be repriced. Adam and Will also analyze the economic impact of artificial intelligence, particularly its potential to disrupt employment and reshape the software sector. While AI could improve productivity and corporate margins, it may also accelerate job displacement and create unexpected pressure across industries that rely heavily on knowledge workers. Throughout the episode, the hosts stress the importance of remaining vigilant in a market environment filled with uncertainty—from geopolitical escalation to structural financial stresses. They conclude by discussing what indicators they are watching closely and how investors should think about risk management as events continue to unfold. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

After a brief hiatus (courtesy of a historic Southern ice storm), Adam and Will return to find an index-level market that looks deceptively calm—roughly flat since their last episode—while significant damage has been done beneath the surface to individual stocks. The disconnect between index stability and individual-stock carnage is the central thread of the episode. The first major topic is AI capital expenditure. Most of the Mag 7 have committed to spending at a scale that would have seemed absurd just a few years ago, and the market, which once rewarded this enthusiasm, has begun to question it as free cash flow risks turning negative within a few years if spending continues at its current pace. The notable exception is Apple, which has largely preserved its free cash flow and financial engineering by not scaling its own AI infrastructure—instead positioning itself as a passive beneficiary of AI-driven hardware upgrade cycles as older devices become too underpowered to run next-generation software. Software companies have been the most punished segment, with the market essentially pricing in near-zero terminal value for many names a decade out, despite those same companies still showing solid guidance in the near term. The AI disruption narrative has swept indiscriminately through software, insurance, and financial services, producing days where a significant slice of S&P 500 stocks fell sharply while the index itself stayed within striking distance of all-time highs. The hosts note that the damage at the individual stock level has been dramatically worse than what the indices suggest—the average constituent in growth-oriented indices has seen drawdowns many times deeper than the headline numbers. A discussion of retail trading platforms—using Robinhood as a proxy—puts the individual investor experience in stark context: the average Robinhood trader has seen only modest gains over the past several years before taxes, a period in which simply indexing would have produced dramatically better results. The hosts draw a parallel to horse racing: people are generous in recounting their winners and silent about everything else. Incoming tax refund season may temporarily reflate the most speculative corners of the market, but the hosts are skeptical this represents durable demand. The conversation ends on a more somber note around the K-shaped economy. Job growth has been concentrated in narrow sectors, consumer sentiment remains poor, healthcare costs are crushing small businesses, and AI is beginning to erode entry-level employment. The hosts express genuine concern that a large segment of the population—still financially scarred from COVID—is being further squeezed while capital markets continue to reward those who already have assets. Whether and how that tension resolves is left as an open and uncomfortable question. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

We look at the eventful start to 2026 and try to put some context around potential market impacts. Geopolitically, we saw the renewed vigor of the Monroe Doctrine in full force with U.S. action against Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro. Whether stemming the flow of drugs or increasing the supply of oil was the primary factor is undetermined, though decades of underinvestment in infrastructure make any meaningful near-term effect on oil supply unlikely; lower oil prices have been one of the few things keeping inflation in check. We also discuss saber rattling as it relates to Greenland, whose strategic location has perhaps been underappreciated, and Iran, where citizen protests are increasingly being met by violence. Affordability has been top of mind for the electorate, and the Administration, and we have seen presidential social media posts on housing and credit card interest rates. Though executive power has increased, barring institutions from buying single-family homes and capping credit card interest at 10% seems to have little likelihood of actually being implemented. However, housing affordability is a huge problem; according to Apollo: 54 million households can only afford a house priced less than $200k Another 40 million need prices between $200k and $400k With around 133 million households total in the U.S, and the median home price over $400k, the American dream of home ownership is simply out of reach for most One mechanism viewed as a way to improve affordability is lower interest rates, though compelling the Fed to reduce rates by having the DoJ go after the current Fed chair may not have the desired effect. We discuss Chair Powell's stern response to the charges and the importance of maintaining Fed independence. Finally, we recap a strong 2025 for equities (at least some of them), and look at the statistics showing just how few stocks outperformed the S&P 500 (fewer than one in five). This was the third year in a row where active managers had the deck stacked against them. For 2026, expectations are universally bullish. We look at the math behind higher equity prices in terms of multiples and earnings, and why a broader market, which started to take shape in December, might help investors but not necessarily matter for the index. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

We take a detour into the Dickensian in evaluating the state of the economy. First, the recent inflation print, which showed a significant decline in the level of price increases, was a fiction worthy of Dickens, with the majority of the data simply made up as a result of the government shutdown. Setting that aside, since 2021, wage growth has not kept pace with inflation for food, shelter, and services, though we can count our blessings that at least alcohol prices have not increased as much… Challenges face the Fed chair (both current and yet to come), and managing a deteriorating labor market and persistently higher prices presents a conundrum. The Fed is simply not getting what it wants at present in terms of rate cuts translating to a lower yield on the 10-year Treasury, and with deficits soaring in spite of a growing economy, some tough choices will have to be made. However, stocks have proven remarkably resilient, and predictions from most Wall Street firms argue for a continued move higher supported by AI, solid growth, fiscal stimulus from tax policy, and further rate cuts. However, the math is a little challenging; to cite one example: The S&P reaches over 7,700 by this time next year (around 13% above where we are now) Earnings grow around 9% (this seems achievable, and maybe even a little conservative) Multiples expand to 26x earnings (this would be at peak dot com levels) We think you might get this level of earnings growth (or better), but that multiple seems a little rambunctious. Even if we do get there, expect some market shenanigans on the way, as history shows mid-term election years tend to see large drawdowns; think back no further than 2022. The average midterm drawdown is around 18%, though the range is very wide. Will brings it home with a reading from a speech given by Scrooge's nephew Fred so we end on a positive note celebrating the season. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.