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Budgets are all about numbers: growth, inflation, unemployment, headroom. So this week on Westminster Insider, Sascha and Pat look into the numbers behind Britain's economy — and just how much government policy is really made up of guesswork, rather than solid measurements. Sascha talks to Dr Laura Gilbert, the former director of data at Number 10 Downing Street, who explains exactly why the numbers we have on measurements like immigration or the workforce are often wrong by hundreds of thousands of people. Ben Warner, who was chief advisor on data and digital at Number 10 during the pandemic, explains why this uncertainty spells chaos for political decision-making and says he believes most ministers don't know how to use data. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Andy Burnham has promised Britain can “hope again”. But with inflation rising, borrowing costs soaring and trillions of pounds of national debt, how much room does Chancellor John Healey actually have to deliver in the budget on Oct. 28? This week, Pat and Sascha speak to Treasury insiders to find out who really calls the shots when a Chancellor puts together a budget. First, they hear from Matt Pound, one of former Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ closest advisers, about the tough choices facing Healey, the dangers of leaks and U-turns, and why keeping the bond markets onside matters more than politicians might like to admit. Then, Cameron Brown, who worked under both Kwasi Kwarteng and Jeremy Hunt, and Simon Finkelstein, who advised Hunt at the Treasury, reveal just how obsessed Westminster has become with the bond markets. And POLITICO’s Financial Services Editor Fiona Maxwell gives her predictions for what Healey might have in store on budget day. - 00:00 Budget context 04:43 Matt Pound interview 20:40 Why bond markets are so important during budgets 25:20 Ex-treasury staffers Cameron Brown and Simon Finkelstein 37:23 Politico's financial services editor Fiona Maxwell 41:32 The Oddcast: modern day jousting... - This podcast has been updated to correct the description of Simon Finkelstein’s role. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Customs union, single market, rejoin, second referendum. It's all feeling a little Ground Hog day in Westminster after Andy Burnham reopened the Europe question at Labour Party conference. Hosts Sascha O'Sullivan and Pat Baker find out how the row over Europe will play out in the next few years, with Reform MP Danny Kruger and Labour MP Stella Creasy. Sascha speaks to Cecilia Malmström, former EU Trade Commissioner during the Brexit negotiations, who says any new deal with the EU would need to be "Nigel Farage-proofed" in case Reform wound up in Downing Street. UK-EU reporter Jon Stone explains what Burnham is hoping to gain from the EU summit next month, and whether Britain's friends in Brussels care about Westminster looking again at Britain's relationship with the trading bloc. - 00:00 Introduction 03:16 Return of the EU wars? 08:00 Stellar Creasy and Danny Kruger 18:58 Could there be a second referendum? 24:10 Does the EU care about the UK? 27:20 Former EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom 32:45 The 'Oddcast' Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On a special edition of Westminster Insider from Labour Party conference, Pat and Sascha sat down with the new Mayor of Greater Manchester, Bev Craig, at the POLITICO Pub in Liverpool. In a conversation recorded in front of a live audience on Tuesday, shortly before Andy Burnham’s conference speech, Craig opened up about what it’s really like taking over from her predecessor — and how she plans to make the job her own. Fresh from a trip to New York, she revealed what she learned from Mayor Zohran Mamdani and what Greater Manchester might borrow from his playbook. Craig told Westminster Insider about her plan for Donald Trump’s visit to Manchester next year. Plus, she faced Pat and Sascha’s quick-fire round. Westminster Insider returns in full on October 16. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With England through to the knockout stages of the World Cup and hopes rising that football might finally be coming home, Westminster is watching nervously — and closely. The beautiful game shapes the national mood like little else. For politicians, that creates both huge opportunity and huge risk. This week, Patrick Baker speaks to football and politics journalist Joey D’Urso about the deep historical links between football and political power, and why World Cup success has long shaped Britain’s political imagination. Political commentator and former Labour adviser Scarlett McGwire explains why authenticity matters more in football than almost anywhere else in politics — and recalls the bizarre moment Gordon Brown’s advisers staged photos of him cheering on England to make him appear “less Scottish.” In a late-night pub viewing of Scotland vs. Brazil, Scottish Labour MP Brian Leishman offers a perspective from north of the border on the hardship of following the Tartan Army, England’s World Cup hopes and home nations rivalry. Labour MP Kim Leadbeater reflects on football’s power to bring people together across political divides, and why politicians should resist turning the game into another front in Britain’s culture wars. And playwright James Graham, creator of the hit play and TV series Dear England, argues that football may be one of the last great communal experiences in British life — one of the few places where strangers still come together to feel something collectively. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Greater Manchester mayoralty made Andy Burnham famous. Now he's hoping he can take the approach he developed in the city to the whole country. This week on Westminster Insider, host Sascha O'Sullivan speaks to four serving mayors — and one former one about whether the role will prepare Burnham for the highest office in the land. Labour Mayor of the East Midlands Claire Ward, who was a minister in Gordon Brown's government, told Sascha that mayors have much more power than junior minister. Oliver Coppard, the Labour Mayor of South Yorkshire, explains how the job requires you to manage different competing interests, albeit on a smaller scale than as a prime minister. But former Mayor of the West Midlands Andy Street warns that when it comes to financial responsibility and party management — two pitfalls of Keir Starmer's leadership — the job of mayor is "totally different". Helen Godwin, West of England Mayor, and Kim McGuinness, Mayor of the North East, have graciously said they won't kick Burnham out of the Labour mayors' WhatsApp group if he becomes PM. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Makerfield has proved to be the making of Andy Burnham’s bid for the top job, but could it also be the moment that Nigel Farage’s ambitions for Number 10 took a knock?  While Reform UK continues to lead the national polls, it failed to capture the Greater Manchester seat last week and was beaten into third place by the Conservatives, the party it’s seeking to replace, in two Scottish by-elections. Is the wind going off Reform’s sails just as Labour hopes to revive its fortunes under a new prime minister, who is being dubbed the "Reform slayer" after his by-election victory?  In this bonus interview edition of Westminster Insider, Anne McElvoy talks to Robert Jenrick, Reform’s Treasury Spokesman, about how Reform will respond to a Burnham-led government. The former Conservative minister and leadership candidate left his party earlier this year, claiming that he wanted to “unite the Right”. Following a dispute with Reform's Zia Yusuf over the party's policy on the deportation of migrants, Jenrick is trying to carve out a distinctive position on economic policy, including a new "big bang" for the City of London. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Andy Burnham is the new Labour MP for Makerfield, heading for parliament and, likely, Number 10. But what does his momentous win here on the outskirts of Wigan tell us about his chances of masterminding a wider Labour revival as prime minister? Host Patrick Baker has been in the constituency over the past few weeks, speaking to people who live and work in this curiously normal part of the country about the prospect of a Burnham premiership. On the campaign trail, Labour MP Peter Dowd reveals what kind of reaction he has been getting on the doorstep and shares his enthusiasm for Burnham's economic agenda. Reform voters at the Bryn Community Centre in Ashton explain why they feel Labour has abandoned them, but hint they might look again at voting Labour if Burnham can deliver for their area as prime minister. Patrick speaks to locals supporting Rupert Lowe's hardline anti-immigration party Restore Britain, as well as those concerned that two insurgent parties on the right could provide a boost to Labour's electoral chances. And Rob Ford, professor of politics at the University of Manchester, explains why being a popular mayor may not so easily translate into being a successful PM. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In a bonus episode of Westminster Insider, host Sascha O’Sullivan sits down with Jack Blanchard to find out who is the real Andy Burnham. Jack talks through the journey Burnham has made from loyal minister in the new Labour years to the man he is today — and the most pivotal moments that have shaped him as the politician who is now hoping to win the Makerfield by-election and, eventually, the keys to No10 Downing Street. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Climate change, Palestine, Brexit, the Iraq War. Westminster has seen it all when it comes to protests, and the inhabitants of Parliament are largely desensitised to the angry cries at the gates. This week on Westminster Insider host Sascha O'Sullivan asks: what's the point of marching on Whitehall? Peter Tatchell, career protestor famous for his involvement in the gay rights movement, explains how the LGBT marches in the 1990s and early 2000s helped move the needle. But former Conservative MP and gay rights campaigner Edwina Currie takes Sascha inside the back-room lobbying, which she insists was more effective than any protest. Sascha speaks to Sophie Cowen, who spent years working for both Extinction Rebellion and Insulate Britain, about what the attention-grabbing stunts of the climate protests achieved. And Dr Maria Stephan, political scientist and co-author of Why Civil Resistance Works, explains why the No Kings marches have been so successful. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ten years — and six prime ministers — ago Britain was on the brink of voting to leave the European Union. Host Patrick Baker was in his first job as a TV news producer during the referendum campaign. A decade on, he’s gone back to the people who lived through its biggest moments to find out what was really happening behind the scenes, and how those events changed British politics forever. Matthew Elliott, chief executive of Vote Leave, recounts the brutal battle with rival group Leave.EU to become the official Brexit campaign, and how his colleague Dominic Cummings used new techniques to persuade swing voters to vote for Brexit. Kate Fall, David Cameron’s then deputy chief of staff, remembers sitting in the front row when Barack Obama delivered his infamous “back of the queue” warning — and provides her theory on whether Downing Street planted the phrase. Broadcaster Rachel Johnson relives the chaos of boarding a boat on the Thames with Bob Geldof to confront a flotilla of pro-Brexit fishermen, before the rockstar began lambasting Nigel Farage. And former Labour MP Gisela Stuart recalls what it was like to participate in the BBC's live TV debate at Wembley, and remembers what it was like at the Vote Leave headquarters on the morning of Brexit. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

At the local elections, the Conservative Party lost hundreds of councillors and dozens of seats across England, Scotland and Wales, but Kemi Badenoch declared a comeback. So this week, Sascha O'Sullivan goes inside the Conservative Party's hopes for a renewal. She speaks to Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride in Solihull and James Cowling of Next Gen Tories about why they think the Tories can make a revival. Henry Hill, political editor at The Critic, who has spent years covering Conservative politics, and pollster Scarlett Maguire tell Sascha about the flaws in the Tories' plan. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham and former health secretary Wes Streeting jostle for influence in the Labour party, host Sascha O'Sullivan looks at what it takes to turn around a party's fortunes mid-term. Former John Major aide Daniel Finkelstein explains how the Conservative Prime Minister managed to win the 1992 elections against the odds and differentiate himself from his predecessor, Margaret Thatcher. Theo Bertram, former Tony Blair and Gordon Brown advisor turned think tank boss, talks Sascha through Brown's fateful decision not to call a snap election after taking over from Blair, and the challenge he faced in gripping the No. 10 machine. The most recent history of mid-term Prime Ministers might prove most instructive for any new Labour Prime Minister, and Rishi Sunak 's former deputy director of policy James Nation takes Sascha inside the effort to reboot his premiership. He tells Sascha Sunak's team found themselves hamstrung by the manifesto commitments promised in 2019, and struggled to keep the party from infighting after taking over from Liz Truss. Sascha discusses the lessons from these mid-term Prime Ministers with former Keir Starmer policy director Claire Ainsley to find out if Labour can fight its way out of unpopularity — with or without Keir Starmer at the helm. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With Keir Starmer fighting for his political life after the most perilous week of his premiership, the prime minister and his inner circle have been engaged in a desperate rearguard effort to shore up his position. This week on Westminster Insider, host Patrick Baker lifts the lid on what life is really like inside Number 10 when a Prime Minister and their shrinking band of loyal advisers enter what Westminster knows as “bunker mode.” Boris Johnson’s former aide Ross Kempsell sets out his “rules for the bunker” — such as ensuring you have a highly political Chief Whip and tightly controlling access to the prime minister. Former civil servant Robert Midgley, who worked under Theresa May and Boris Johnson, recalls political advisers suddenly vanishing behind closed doors during moments of crisis, leaving officials wandering the corridors of Downing Street awaiting news of a prime ministerial resignation. Beatrice Timpson, former deputy press secretary to Liz Truss, explains how communications teams often go to ground during political meltdowns in an effort to impose message discipline when the PM’s back is against the wall. Conservative peer George Bridges, who worked in Downing Street under John Major, describes the melancholy atmosphere surrounding a prime minister who knows, deep down, that their time is up. And psychotherapist and political commentator Lucy Beresford argues that bunker mode is not merely a crisis-management strategy, but a revealing feature of the prime ministerial psyche — helping explain why so many leaders cling on long after hope of survival has faded. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Victorians called Britain and Germany “awkward cousins.” These days, Keir Starmer is trying to revive that Anglo-German amity as part of a broader reset with the European Union. The prime minister has wooed Chancellor Friedrich Merz since the Christian Democrat leader took power in Berlin last year, leading to the signing of the Kensington Treaty nine months ago. The treaty was designed to fill the gap in bilateral relations after Brexit and give the Anglo-German relationship more power with an increasingly bellicose Russia. But how much influence do Starmer and Merz have over an erratic American President Donald Trump — and can the E3 (the U.K., Germany and France) really influence Trump’s war with Iran? Host Anne McElvoy talks to Susanne Baumann, Germany’s ambassador to London, in her first interview since she was appointed last September. In a week when the British government received stinging criticism over its defense plans, the ambassador defends Germany's cooperation on long-range missile and other projects. She also rates England's chances at this summer's FIFA World Cup under German coach Thomas Huchel. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices