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The world’s major central banks all turned hawkish in September. The Fed delivered a widely expected hike, while hinting that it wasn’t done just yet. ECB “sources” also pointed to another rate increase in the Euro Area later in the year, while the Bank of England suggested that it could follow suit should the energy crisis continue to rumble on for much longer. What do our analysts make of these hawkish pivots, and are they really justified? We also talk forward guidance. Is central bank signalling actually a good thing, or unnecessary? Does Kevin Warsh have a point after all? Tune in to find out. We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk   Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

Following a brief summer hiatus, FX Talk is back! FX volatility trickled lower throughout August, but the typically quiet summer period was not without its share of intrigue. The dollar was hammered by the Treasury's debt buyback announcement, Kevin Warsh struck a notably hawkish note at Jackson Hole, and bond yields surged globally amid mounting fears over rising government debt and stickier inflation. We look ahead to what promises to be a blockbuster few weeks in markets. Will the Federal Reserve pull the trigger on a rate hike at its meeting next week? What are the broader implications of the sell-off in debt markets worldwide? And is the yen finally primed for a sustained reversal? Tune in to find out. We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk   Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

US-Iran peace talks have run into further trouble after President Trump declared the framework peace deal to be “over”. The ceasefire has collapsed and oil prices have jumped by around 20% so far this month. Yet the US CPI report for June surprised to the downside, suggesting that the spike in energy prices was not having the broad inflationary implications that had been previously feared. Where does that leave the Federal Reserve?  We also turn our attention to the Japanese yen, which is trading around the levels that have previously triggered FX intervention from Japanese authorities. Will this be enough to prop up the yen? Or is there fresh downside in store? We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk   Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

Britain is set for its fifth prime minister in four years following the resignation of Keir Starmer. With Andy Burnham destined to land the top job in Downing Street, we discuss what impact the new leader could have on the pound and gilt markets.  The dollar, meanwhile, has surged higher since the Federal Reserve’s June monetary policy meeting, the first since the appointment for Kevin Warsh as the new FOMC chair. What do our analysts make of the hawkish announcement? We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk   Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

Despite some encouraging signs of progress, the Iran war continues to drag on without a clear end in sight. Investors are exhibiting an element of headline fatigue, as the sort of headlines that would have previously been greeted with wild gyrations in markets are now being either roundly ignored or treated with caution. EUR/USD has subsequently traded within a tight range - we discuss what could trigger a breakout.  This month is also a big month in the UK. The Bank of England looks set to hold policy steady, but the real focus will be on the Makerfield by-election. A victory for Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham could clear his path to Number 10. But what does this mean for the pound and gilts? We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk   Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

The era of central bank consensus appears to be over. In this episode of FX Talk, we dive into a hectic week of monetary policy decisions that saw the "Big Three" hold rates steady while revealing deep internal fractures.  We start with the Federal Reserve, where an 8-4 split marks the most divided FOMC in decades. As Kevin Warsh prepares to take center stage, we analyse whether his tenure will prioritise balance sheet action over traditional rate hikes.  Across the pond, the ECB finds itself in a stagflationary trap; caught between a June hike and the economic fallout of the conflict in Iran. Finally, we look at the Bank of England, where a high-profile dissent from Chief Economist Huw Pill suggests the UK may soon hike rates to combat stubborn inflationary pressures. As the transatlantic policy gap widens, the roadmap for FX volatility in 2026 is being rewritten.  Join us as we decode the dissent and what it means for your global exposure! We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk   Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

Markets are breathing a collective sigh of relief following the news of an eleventh hour ceasefire between the US and Iran. But is this the beginning of a genuine off-ramp, or just a brief intermission before the next act?  In this week's episode, we dig into what the ceasefire actually means for markets: will the US dollar sell-off continue? Does the move lower in oil prices have more room to run? How could the news impact global growth and inflation? And what could it mean for central bank rates? Have a listen to find out our thoughts on these and more! We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk   Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

SPECIAL GUEST ALERT.  We are delighted to be joined on today’s episode by Simon French - Chief Economist and Head of Research at Panmure Liberum, and regular columnist at The Times.  On today’s episode, we unpack the implications of the ongoing war in Iran. How could the volatility in global oil prices impact inflation, and how might central banks around the world respond to the shock? Simon also discusses the deeper inflationary and growth problem in the UK associated with a rationing of factors of production. What policies are exacerbating Britain’s inflation problem? Why are rising global energy prices hitting the UK harder than its peers? And what can be done to address the issue? We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk   Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

Global trade has been thrown into fresh chaos following last week’s Supreme Court ruling, which deemed President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs to be illegal. The reaction in financial markets has been relatively calm so far, as not only were investors prepared for the verdict, but they fully expected the president to pursue alternative methods to achieve his trade objectives.  The future of ECB President Lagarde has also been thrown in doubt following a FT report released last week, which suggested that she could be considering leaving her post before the end of her term. Meanwhile, sterling has faced headwinds from UK political uncertainty and rising expectations that the Bank of England will slash rates again at its next meeting in March. We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk   Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

Following months of speculation, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh has been named as the next chair of the FOMC - how could his appointment impact US rates, Fed autonomy and the dollar? Meanwhile, the massive supermajority victory for Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi at the weekend’s election has triggered a sharp rebound in the yen - what has instigated the move?  We also discuss the implications of the strong January nonfarm payrolls report. What does the data mean for the US labour market and the path of US rates? We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk   Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

The Sell America trade returned with a vengeance last week after President Trump threatened eight European countries with fresh tariffs for their stance over Greenland. While his entirely predictable U-turn was greeted positively by equities and bond markets, the dollar has continued to lose ground, why? The Japanese yen has rallied sharply amid mounting speculation of a rare coordinated intervention from US and Japanese authorities to prop up the yen. Meanwhile, the race to be named the next Fed chair is hotting up, with a surprise candidate now seemingly the front runner. We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk   Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

2026 is already shaping up to be another eventful one in global financial markets, particularly following a number of high profile geopolitical events in the first two weeks of the year. But what do we expect to be the main focus for investors this year?  Will the AI boom boost global growth? Or is the bubble ready to burst? And how will the new Fed chair impact the path of US interest rates? We also give our thoughts on the currencies that we think will over and underperform in the coming twelve months. We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk   Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

The heavily anticipated UK Autumn Budget has come and gone, without causing too much in the way of alarm among market participants. Sterling and gilts actually rallied following the announcement, but what was behind this rather subdued reaction? And what might the budget mean for the UK economy in 2026? Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve appears almost certain to cut rates again at its December meeting, despite the lack of data releases due to the US government shutdown. We give our thoughts ahead of the meeting, and speculate as to the implications of Kevin Hassett’s potential appointment as the next chair of the FOMC. We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk   Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

The US government shutdown continues to drag on like a traffic jam in New York at rush hour, with no apparent ending in sight. Macroeconomic reports out of the US have been subsequently scarcer than Wi-Fi in the desert, but could this lack of data impact the tone of Fed Chair Powell’s communications at this week’s FOMC meeting? And what might it mean for the path of US rates in 2026? In the meantime, US President Trump and Chinese President Xi will be meeting on Thursday in an attempt to hash out a trade deal. But, will we see a deal, another delay or a collapse in the negotiations? We also cast an eye on the outlook for the Argentine peso following the strong support for President Milei at the weekend’s midterm elections. We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk   Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

SPECIAL GUEST ALERT. We’re delighted to be joined on today’s episode by Peel Hunt’s Chief Economist Kallum Pickering. Kallum brings with himself well over a decade of experience as an economist in London and is a regular commentator in the financial markets space, having made many appearances down the years on the likes of Bloomberg and CNBC. He also has regular columns in the Telegraph, the Spectator and the Evening Standard.  This week, we chat about global bond markets, fiscal policy and the current predicament that governments find themselves in. Debt levels are rising, borrowing costs are increasing and ageing populations are putting a stain on the public coffers. But what does this mean for the global economy, and how can authorities address the issue? We also give our thoughts on what to expect at November’s UK Autumn Budget. We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk   Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!