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Transpacific spreads are tightening as the summer rally flattens, while risk in the Strait of Hormuz climbs. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover: Why the narrowing Asia-USWC spread, now about $1,500 per 40-foot, points to growing certainty on priceHow carriers prioritizing China loads squeeze space for Korea and Japan cargo, driving sharp swings on Northeast Asia to USECFour container ships hit near Hormuz, one sunk, as Gemini’s new Suez service moves Red Sea routings closer to normalHMM’s new order lifting its orderbook to 32% of fleet, still one of the smallest among the top 16 carriersPlus: tariff whiplash, an FMC proposal targeting Spanish imports, and a hacker group’s extortion claims against 34 maritime organizations.

Transpacific rates appear to have peaked, Asia to North Europe keeps sliding toward a floor, and the risk picture across the Middle East is getting harder to plan around. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover: Signs of a Transpacific peak, with USWC easing and USEC flattening, and the steady Asia to North Europe decline since JulyAugust demand data: Asia-Europe down 1.7% year on year while the Transpacific grew 10.8%, and why neither trade fits a simple weak or strong labelIranian attacks well beyond the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi strikes deep into Saudi Arabia, and what shippers can do when rerouting is out of their controlAfrica's import growth, OOCL's Q3 results, Asia to East Coast South America service changes, and El Niño risk at the Panama Canal

Asia to North Europe rates are still falling, Transpacific rates keep climbing, and the gap between the two lanes is at a record high. With the data and the market narrative pointing in different directions, the new NYFI options contracts on Asia to North Europe and Asia to USWC arrive at the right moment. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath are joined by Peter Stallion of Clarksons to cover: Why the port congestion story doesn't fit low blank sailing levels or falling Asia to North Europe ratesThe record arbitrage between the two lanes, and a USWC 10 to 90% spread hovering near $2,000 per 40'How call and put options work, how they differ from futures, and who sells themUsing options and futures in 2027 European tenders, and why going unhedged is the real gamblePlus: Red Sea normalization, escalating Hormuz attacks, and the stalled Hapag-Lloyd and ZIM deal.

Port congestion is now absorbing 8.5% of the global container fleet, roughly four times the pre-pandemic norm, and it may not clear before the Chinese New Year peak. On NYFI, Asia to US East Coast rates sit at an all-time high, with rates to both US coasts still climbing. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover: Why congestion could push Asia-Europe rates up just as shippers negotiate 2027 contracts in the European tender seasonWhat last week's upward shift in NYFI futures says about how long the market expects tight capacity to lastThe October 5 launch of NYFI options contracts on ICE Futures Europe, with a deeper dive next week alongside Peter Stallion of ClarksonsHow an orderbook approaching 43% could bring more consolidation and more competition at the same timeSubscribe for weekly podcast highlights sent directly to your inbox

Pacific rates on both U.S. coasts are near 2024 levels, and the data Lars Jensen reviews points to carrier capacity management as the driver. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover: How Pacific vessel utilization has shifted upward since before the pandemic, and what that means for ratesMore Gemini and MSC services returning to Suez routing, and who carries the risk if the Red Sea situation deterioratesHormuz, where container cargo is moving by land-bridge corridors while bunker fuel prices climbMaersk's order for 26 vessels and the carrier positioning game heading into the 2030sSubscribe for weekly podcast highlights sent straight to your inbox

Rich Heath, NYSHEX's VP of Financial Products, joins Lars Jensen as the new co-host this week, stepping in as Caroline Weaver moves on to her next chapter. And there's plenty to dig into on his first episode. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover: Why Asia-US East Coast rates jumped roughly $700/FEU even as North American import demand grew just 1% year-on-year, pointing to capacity, not demand, as the driverNew CTS data showing global trade grew 4.5% in July, and would have been closer to 8% without an estimated 3.7 million TEU of demand lost to the Hormuz Strait crisis since MarchRed Sea normalization now at 27% of Asia-Europe capacity, and the new risk building in Yemen as Houthi territorial gains give them more leverage over shipping accessHow the futures market is pricing 2027 Asia-Europe tenders, and where shippers may be missing an opportunity to lock in rates ahead of peak seasonSign up for weekly podcast highlights and never miss insider intel

This week's Supply Chain Secrets doubles as Caroline Weaver's send off as co-host, and she goes out with the market question everyone's been asking: why have Pacific spot rates gone so volatile?  In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Why June and July cargo data show no demand boom on the Pacific, and why the recent spot rate spikes are capacity driven insteadHow the Asia-Europe rate cooldown is following a normal seasonal pattern this time, backed by genuine demand growthEscalation in the Strait of Hormuz and new attacks on container vessels in the Black SeaWhy direct port to port service is less commoditized across alliances than most shippers assumeThank you to Caroline for your energy and insights on the show!  And, don't worry listeners. The show will go on!  Rich Heath, NYSHEX's VP of Financial Products, takes over alongside Lars Jensen starting next week.  Sign up for weekly podcast highlights and never miss insider intel!

Ocean carrier reliability just hit its lowest point since before the current alliance structure took effect, with typhoon-driven port congestion in Asia dragging Shanghai down to just 21% on-time arrivals in July. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Global vessel reliability at 56% for July, and the 40 percentage point gap separating Gemini's 89.5% from Premier Alliance's sub-50% performanceNYFI's Asia-US sub-lane data, including Northeast Asia's role as a swing capacity market and a fresh split between US East and West Coast ratesSuez Canal normalization now at 19% of Asia-Europe capacity, and what it means for demand growth if that reaches 50%A reopened split between 20-foot and 40-foot rates on the Trans-Atlantic Westbound lane, plus Q4 bunker and emissions surcharge changes

New restrictions from the Panama Canal Authority are cutting daily transits starting in September, well ahead of the Chinese New Year peak season shippers depend on that route to serve. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Why the canal authority is acting early, and what a 34% drop in rain inflow to Lake Gatun means for shippers who haven't built contingency plansA Transpacific market sending mixed signals: Southeast Asia rates spiking, Northeast Asia to US East Coast rates dropping almost 30% in a week, and a rate spread on Asia-US East Coast now as wide as it was at the summer peakUpdates on the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz standoff with Iran, and the new US-Canada tariff breakdownWhy the Northern Sea Route remains more hype than real capacity, and where FMC Chairman Laura DiBella's net zero framework comments leave the November IMO voteReceive weekly show notes and charts in your inbox

Pacific spot rates are flatlining on average, but the spread between the highest and lowest payers just hit its widest point in months, a sign the market has no real conviction on where this goes next. Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver break down what's actually driving ocean freight this week. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Asia-USWC/USEC spreads widening sharply while average rates hold flat, and what that phantom GRI risk means for shippersNOAA's latest El Niño forecast for the Panama Canal and the draft restrictions likely coming this fallRed Sea normalization update as more carriers shift back to Suez routingThe order book math: why fleet growth may already be outpacing true demand, and what that means for capacity heading into 2027 and 2028Subscribe to weekly podcast highlights

NYFI held flat for a fourth straight week, and the June CTS data explains why the Transpacific demand story isn't what the headlines suggest. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Why NYFI and SCFI track different things by design (SCFI is a forward-looking quote, NYFI reflects cargo already loaded), and how to spot a phantom GRI before you pay for oneJune CTS data showing Transpacific demand and capacity both flat year over year, while Asia-Europe, Asia-South America, and Asia-Africa post double-digit growthRed Sea normalization signals: OOCL's new Bab el-Mandeb service and Maersk/Hapag-Lloyd shifting the AE15 and AE19 Gemini services back to SuezPanama Canal draft cuts ahead of El Niño, plus low water on the Rhine and Amazon squeezing inland movesSign up for weekly podcast highlights

Ocean freight rates are past peak season on the Transpacific and Asia-North Europe, but a widening gap between the NYFI and SCFI on Asia-US West Coast is raising questions about which number actually reflects the market. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Why NYFI and SCFI measure fundamentally different things, and how to spot a "phantom GRI" before it costs youWhat index-linked contracts actually protect you from, and how to pick the right index for your businessThe current East Coast/West Coast rate divergence and what's driving itEscalating Middle East shipping risk, including the attack on tankers in Damietta, and why carrier profits aren't proof of market manipulationSign up for weekly podcast highlights and never miss valuable intel.

Global schedule reliability slipped again in June, and the gap between carrier alliances is now too wide to ignore. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: June reliability data: global on-time performance down to 63% from 65% in May, holding well below pre-pandemic norms for months runningThe alliance breakdown: Gemini at 93.4%, its best showing since launch, versus MSC around 80%, Ocean Alliance around 70%, and Premier Alliance down near 55%How Sea-Intelligence actually measures reliability, including the three to four week lock-in window and why plus/minus one calendar day is the right yardstick, not the wrong oneNYFI this week: Asia-USWC down 1% to $5,818, Asia-USEC up 7% to $7,793, driven by a capacity split between the two coasts, and Asia-NEUR down 3% at $4,797.Sign up for weekly podcast highlights

Ocean freight this week is a study in divergence: Pacific rates are splitting by coast, Asia-Europe spreads are widening, and a new blockade declaration just widened the Middle East risk map. Even Lars's connection from France needed a reroute this week: his audio came through rough enough that part of the episode runs on AI voiceover instead. Turns out signal disruption isn't just a shipping lane problem. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Why Northeast Asia is pushing USWC rates up 14.6% while pulling USEC rates down 1.6%, in the same weekThe Houthis' newly declared blockade on Saudi Arabia, and why it threatens the last working bypass route around the Strait of HormuzRising bunker costs, a new 25% Section 301 tariff on Brazil, and a US inventory picture that Lars calls "walking on a knife edge"Low water surcharges now hitting the St. Lawrence Seaway, the Rhine, and the Amazon, all at onceSubscribe to weekly highlights

President Trump says he'll charge a 20% toll on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Lars Jensen ran the numbers, and they don't hold up. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: The math behind why a 20% Hormuz toll could work out to record freight rate highs, and why no shipper would pay it.Who would even be billed, and why the US has no realistic way to collect if a carrier just refuses.Seven attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz this week alone, and what "open" actually means when ships are still getting hit.Asia-USWC rates flatten, but the shipper-to-shipper spread nearly tripled in a month.Maersk extends its Suez return with two more services despite the Hormuz risk.Subscribe for weekly podcast highlights