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Wheat Market Outlook

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Categories
Country
Canada
This podcast has
259 episodes
Language
English
Publisher
Sask Wheat
Explicit
No
Date created
2021/03/18
Latest episode
2026/04/20
Average duration
11 min.
Release period
7 days

Description

Sask Wheat's weekly wheat market outlook analyzes domestic and global factors that impact wheat prices and market access for Saskatchewan wheat producers. As of Aug. 5, 2025, Ty Kehrig and Derek Squair of Exceed Grain Marketing provide a weekly report of the wheat market summary.

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Wheat Market Outlook - April 20, 2026
2026/04/20
Market Outlook – Wheat Markets are hyper focused on the U.S. winter wheat crop as the only real problematic region in the world.  Russia, Ukraine and European Union crops all look as expected and are growing without major market concern. Many of these regions will be putting out a smaller crop than last year but that has been anticipated for several months now, partly in anticipation to come off of last year's large yields in many areas. We will begin to see more official reports on 2026/27 production estimates as the European Union and many of the northern hemisphere crops begin to come closer to their harvest season in June and July. The USDA will publish official 2026/27 estimates in the MayUSDA report. U.S. weather is the focus right now as some major dryness in the HRW wheat belt, lack of rain and a touch of frost in western parts of the region on the weekend. The market will also turn focus onto the spring wheat crops that are being planted in North Dakota, Montana and Minnesota here in the coming weeks. The crop was 6 per cent planted as of last week and should be over the double digit point this week. Canadian crop planting is just set to begin once the weather turns warmer. Many regions are still a little wet and cold. Expect Canadian planting to become more prominent May 1, 2026 onward this year, although a few northern wheat production regions are sitting with some lingering snow cover yet. Overall, we will be sitting in a wheat weather market from here forwards. Market Outlook – Durum Price outlook looks flat for the time being. Algeria's tender of durum wheat will provide a bit of support for producers to clean up old crop inventories ahead of planting, but no major rally is being anticipated as ample carryouts and a good prospect for the North African / Mediterranean crop. North African crop for durum still appears quite promising. Turkey is expected to put out a larger crop this upcoming harvest and could result in lower import demand from the region overall. Lower durum acreage anticipated in the U.S. and Canada. Markets watching to see how the spring planting season progresses when it comes time to plant and the crop conditions that follow as Canada is such a major producer of the crop for global market export. Durum is also in a weather market and will watch how the North Africancrop comes off.
Wheat Market Outlook - April 13, 2026
2026/04/13
MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT As of right now, dryness in the United States is the most watched on the radar. Most of the Euro region and into the Black Sea are faring alright with some issues but nothing to raise major attention of markets. Ukraine’s southern region and Poland are faring on the drier side, although the market is not focusing quite on major production losses there yet, but will be monitoring. Canadian crop planting is just beginning but still two weeks away from when major progress is expected across the Prairies. Producers could be moving some grain as we play with crop marketing year highs. Producers should be cognisant of when they need to move their old crop wheat to the market. Outside of the U.S., weather issues for wheat look limited although that sentiment can shift anytime.    MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM Price outlook looks flat for durum for the time being. The North African crop for durum still appears quite promising and Turkey is expected to put out a larger crop this upcoming harvest, which could result in lower import demand from the region overall. Algeria is anticipated to tender for 50,000 tonnes of durum this week and durum markets will be watching closely to see how the tender comes in. Lower durum acreage is anticipated in the U.S. and Canada. Markets are watching to see how the spring planting season progresses when it comes time to plant and the crop conditions that follow as Canada is such a major producer of the crop for global export. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/
Wheat Market Outlook - April 7, 2026
2026/04/07
MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat markets will be watching precipitation forecasts more from here on forwards for the growing regions of northern hemisphere crops. Better rainfall for parts of the U.S. winter wheat production region is in the forecast for Oklahoma and Kansas. As of right now, dryness in the United States is the most watched on the radar. Most of the Euro region and into the Black Sea are faring alright with some issues but nothing to raise major attention of markets. Ukraine’s southern region and Poland faring on the drier side. Canadian crop planting season still 3 weeks away from being planted in major fashion. Canadian wheat remains competitive for export into global markets but much of the business was done earlier and export pace relative to last year has been slipping. We are around 4 per cent ahead of last year's export pace vs 15 per cent earlier on in the crop marketing year. IGC’s latest estimates show a potential tightening of global supplies as consumption is anticipated to remain good for the upcoming season and crop yields are expected to return to normal levels after posting many record yields this past year. Producers can be moving some grain as we play with crop marketing year highs and should be cognizant of when they need to move their old crop wheat to the market. We will be in a full weather market for wheat beginning in about 1 months' time as Canadian planting will be underway and European and Black Sea and U.S. winter crops will be in moisture dependent stages. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM Price outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Some better exports recently have been noted. Morocco, Tunisia and Algerian durum crops anticipated to be in good shape and higher output once it becomes harvest time could lower import demand needs thereafter if realised. Watching this market closely as they are still in the growing season and important to be watching the agroclimatic from here on out but as of right now, things look quite favorable in the North African region, and the crops will begin harvest in 1 month. Markets are focused on how Canadian crop prospects will look once time to put that crop into the ground. Canada being the world's largest exporterdoes have a major influence on the market.  If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/
Wheat Market Outlook - March 30, 2026
2026/03/30
MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat markets will begin to see more reports on the Northern Hemisphere crops as their growing season begins. Expect more consistent weather updates as the crop conditions reports will begin to be released from major wheat production / exporting nations: Russia, Ukraine, European Union, Canada and the United States. Markets will be watching precipitation forecasts more going forward for the growing regions of Northern Hemisphere crops. As of right now, dryness in the United States is the most watched on the radar. Most of Euro region and into the Black Sea are faring alright with some issues but nothing to raise major attention of markets. Canadian wheat remains competitive for export into global markets but much of the business was done earlier and export pace relative to last year has been slipping. We are around 6 per cent ahead of last years export pace vs 15 per cent earlier on in the crop marketing year. Canola and other crops are taking up more export volume and capacity in recent weeks at the expense of wheat as exporters move more of the other crops through the system. IGC’s latest estimates show a potential tightening of global supplies as consumption is anticipated to remain good for the upcoming season and crop yields are expected to return to normal levels after posting many record yields this past year. Producers could be moving some grain at cropmarketing year highs with the recent uptick in values and should be cognisant of when they need to move their old crop wheat to the market. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM Price outlook overall for durum appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Morocco, Tunisia and Algerian durum crops are anticipated to be in good shape with higher output once it becomes harvest time could lower import demand needs thereafter if realised. Watching this market closely as they are still in the growing season and important to be watching the agroclimatic from here on out but as of right now, things look quite favorable in the North African region. Markets are focused on how Canadian crop prospects will look once time to put that crop into the ground. Canada being the worlds largest exporter and always does have a major influence on the market. Dryness in southern production regions of Saskatchewan will be the region markets are watching as we enter later April and into May. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/
Wheat Market Outlook - March 23, 2026
2026/03/23
MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEATDomestic bids to Saskatchewan producers pulled back slightly from last week's peaks. Risk premium had been put into ag markets on the conflict and will trade accordingly. Wheat markets have an interesting few weeks ahead of them as the Gulf region conflict persists and we will begin to see more reports on the Northern Hemisphere crops as their growing season begins. Markets will be watching precipitation forecasts more from here on forwards for the growing regions of northern hemisphere crops. Northern Hemisphere crops are believed to have escaped some of the worst of the winterkill with good reports out of Germany and France. U.S. winterkill is not seen as massive, but now the precipitation and dryness scenario will be watched. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market and exports are still tracking on pace for a record season although the pace is beginning to slip as larger exports were done early. We are anticipating some weather-related volatility as the North American growing season is set to begin shortly. IGC’s latest estimates show a potential tightening of global supplies as consumption is anticipated to remain good for the upcoming season and crop yields are expected to return to normal levels after posting many record yields this past year. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM Price outlook overall for durum appears relatively flat as it has been for much ofthe marketing year for western Canadian producers. Morocco, Tunisia and Algerian durum crops are anticipated to be in good shape, and once harvest time comes, higher output could lower import demand needs thereafter if realised. We are watching this market closely as they are still in the growing season and it is important to be watching the agroclimate from here on out. As of right now, things look favourable in the North African region. Markets are focused on how Canadian crop prospects will look once it is time to put that crop into the ground. Canada being the world's largest exporter always does have a major influence on the market in general.
Wheat Market Outlook - March 16, 2026
2026/03/16
MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Futures take a setback on Monday morning after having had a strong showing this past week. Risk premium had been put into ag markets on the conflict and will trade accordingly. This past trading week, Canadian wheat domestic price targets have been triggered at levels not seen yet since the crop was initially available to the market in September and $8 became obtainable in a few scenarios. Markets will be watching precipitation forecasts more from here on forwards for the growing regions of northern hemisphere crops. Northern hemisphere crops are believed to have escaped some of the worst of the winterkill with good reports out of Germany and France with some heavier numbers being reported from Ukraine. U.S. winterkill is not massive but now the precipitation and dryness scenario will be watched. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market and exports still tracking on pace for a record season. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM Tunisia tendered for a 50,000-tonne allotment of durum this past week and has brought some fresh demand into the marketplace. Price outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and how the North African and Mediterranean, European crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, allreports show favourable conditions for the cropping regions with reports of very few issues in these areas so far. North African regions have received quite good winter rainfall and the crop prospect sitting quite positive for now in many key production areas. Market will also turn attention to Canadianprairie agroclimatic closer to spring. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/
Wheat Market Outlook - March 9, 2026
2026/03/09
MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat futures had a strong showing this past week and have translated into some higher value targets being picked up for wheat across the Prairies. Iranian conflict shaking up markets all around including energies and agriculture. Risk premium had been put into ag markets on the conflict and will trade accordingly. The region is a large net importer of wheat, and markets might look to see if there will be any potential stockpiling or shifting of demand into the region. Canadian wheat domestic price targets are being triggered at levels not seen yet since the crop was initially available to the market in September. Markets will be watching precipitation forecasts more from here on for the growing regions of northern hemisphere crops. The crops in these regions are believed to have escaped the worst of the winterkill scenarios mid-January. Some drought issues in the U.S. winter wheat growing region and some mixed state-by-state analytics in the periodical updates provided on the overwintering crop. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market but will need to be cognizant to remain to remain competitive going forwards. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM Price outlook overall for durum appears relatively flat as it has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and how the North African, Mediterranean and European crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, all reports show favourable conditions for the cropping regions with reports of very few issues in these areas so far. North African regions have received good winter rainfall, and the crop prospect is positive for now in many key production areas. The market will also turn attention to Canadian prairie agroclimatic closer to spring. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates.Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/
Wheat Market Outlook - March 2, 2026
2026/03/02
MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat futures had a strong showing this past week and have translated into some higher value targets being picked up for wheat across the prairies. Canadian wheat domestic price targets are being triggered at levels not seen yet since the crop was initially available to the market in September. Some buying of futures in the market has reduced overall managed money short positions. Some weather scares and repositioning by traders as the wheat crop ending stocks and forecasts do not look as burdensome as they once did just a month ago. The market is entering an interesting time here shortly as it will keep its focus onto winter wheat conditions in Black Sea, European Union and United States when they do begin to break dormancy into April. Markets will be watching precipitation forecasts more from here on forwards. The crops in these regions are believed to have escaped the worst of the winterkill scenarios mid-January. Some drought issues in the U.S. winter wheat growing region and some mixed state by state analytics in the periodical updates provided on the overwintering crop. Once dormancy breaks, that is when we will know best and the market will likely stay sideways until it gets a solid feel of what that crop looks like. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market but will need to be cognizant to remain competitivegoing forwards. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM The overall price outlook for durum appears relatively flat as it has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and how the North African and Mediterranean, European crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, all reports show favorable conditions for the cropping regions with reports of very few issues in these areas so far. North African regions have received quite good winter rainfall, and the crop prospects are sitting quite positive for now in many key production areas. The market will also turn attention to Canadian prairie agroclimatic closer to spring. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates.Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/
Wheat Market Outlook - February 23, 2026
2026/02/23
MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT Wheat futures have had a strong showing this past week and has translated into some higher value targets being picked up for wheat across the Prairies. Canadian wheat domestic prices are up $8 to $10 CDN per tonne week-over-week for posted bids and targets are being triggered at levels not seen yet since the crop was initially available to the market in September. Some buying of futures in the market has reduced overall managed money short positions. Some weather scares and repositioning by traders as the wheat crop ending stocks and forecasts do not look as burdensome as they once did just a month ago. The market is entering an interesting time here shortly as it will keep its focus onto winter wheat conditions in the Black Sea, European Union and United States when they do begin to break dormancy into April. The crops in these regions are believed to have escaped the worst of the winterkill scenarios mid-January. Some drought issues in the U.S. winter wheat growing region and some mixed state-by-state analytics in the periodical updates are provided on the overwintering crop. Once dormancy breaks, that’s when we will know the best and the market will likely stay sideways until it gets a solid feel of what that crop looks like. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market but will need to be cognizant to remain competitive as U.S. export values have dropped recently. MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM The price outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum, plus how the North African and Mediterranean and European crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, all reports show favourable conditions for the cropping regions with reports of very few issues in these areas so far. North African regions have received quite good winter rainfall, and the crop prospect is sitting quite positive for now in many key production areas. The market will also turn attention to Canadian prairie agroclimatic closer to spring. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/
Wheat Market Outlook - February 17, 2026
2026/02/17
MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT Bids to Canadian prairie producers have been relatively flat with basis improvements being thrown at producer bids to entice product into the system when needed on futures drops. The market sits comfortably for the time being but will keep its focus onto winter wheat conditions in Black Sea, European Union and United States when they do begin to break dormancy into April. The crops in these regions are believed to have escaped the worst of the winterkill scenarios mid January. Some drought issues in the U.S. winter wheat growing region and some mixed state-by-state analytics in the periodical updates provided on the overwintering crop. Once dormancy breaks, that’s when we will know the best and the market will likely stay sideways until it gets a solid feel of what that crop looks like. Aside from this, demand drive is what the market will need to see to chew away at some of the increased stocks that have ended up on the global balance sheet. As for Western Canadian wheat values, we are continuing to anticipate a neutral market for the coming weeks ahead as we currently sit in a demand driven market and global supplies have grown but are well understood. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market but will need to be cognizant to remain competitive as U.S. export values have dropped recently. Anticipating sideways markets for the near future. MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM Price outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada / globally and exports are strong versus where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and, plus how the North African and Mediterranean, European crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, all reports show favorable conditions for the cropping regions with reports of very few issues in these areas so far. The market will also turn attention to the Canadian prairie agroclimatic closer to spring. Markets remain in a demand driven market, with limited production news to send market in either direction. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates.Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/
Wheat Market Outlook - February 9, 2026
2026/02/09
MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT Bids to Canadian Prairie producers have been relatively flat with basis improvements being thrown at producer bids to entice product into the system when needed on futures drops. The market sits comfortably for the time being but will keep its focus onto winter wheat conditions in the Black Sea, European Union and United States. All initial reports for these areas remain mostly positive as they are believed to have escaped the worst of the winterkill scenarios mid-January. Some drought issues in the U.S. winter wheat growing region and some mixed state by state analytics in the periodical updates provided on the overwintering crop. Once dormancy breaks, that is when we will know the best and the market will likely stay sideways until it gets a solid feel of what that crop looks like. Aside from this, demand drive is what the market will need to see to chew away at some of the increased stocks that have ended up on the global balance sheet. As for Western Canadian wheatvalues, we are continuing to anticipate a neutral market for the coming weeks ahead as we currently sit in a demand driven market and global supplies have grown but are well understood. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market and will need to do so to move out our larger inventories. We expect sideways markets for the near future.   MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM Price outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Algeria’s tender for durum helps chew up a few more tonnes of Canadian durum. Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada / globally and exports are strong vs where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Turkey has turned into a net importer of durum, and we will need to see how demand into some of our key markets forecasts out. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and how the North African and Mediterranean, European Union crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, all reports show favorable conditions for the cropping regions. Markets remain in a demand driven market with limited production news to send the market in either direction.   If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates, follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/
Wheat Market Outlook - February 2, 2026
2026/02/02
MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT Western Canadian export wheat bids picked up another $2 per tonne week-over-week off the west coast, after snagging $2 the week prior. Inland bids have been relatively flat with basis improvements being thrown at producer bids to entice product into the system when needed on futures drops. Wheat markets were watching for winterkill news out of the Black Sea or U.S. wheat production regions this past week, but that weather risk has fell off. The market sits comfortably for the time being but will keep its focus on winter wheat conditions in Black Sea, European Union and United States. Aside from this, demand drive is what the market will need to see to chew away at some of the increased stocks that have ended up on the global balance sheet. As for westernCanadian wheat values, we are continuing to anticipate a neutral market for the coming weeks ahead as we currently sit in a demand-driven market and global supplies have grown as Australia and Argentina wrapped up their harvest. Producers will want to pencil this Friday, Feb. 6, 2026, Stocks of Principal Field Crop Report into their calendars. The report will be the next large fundamental CDN data available for markets to trade upon and is just on the horizon. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market and will need to do so to move out our larger inventories.   MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM Price outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Algeria’s tender for durum helps chew up a few more tonnes of Canadian durum. Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada / globally and exports are strong vs. where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Turkey has turned into a net importer of durum, and we will need to see how demand into some of our key players forecasts out. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and, plus how the North African and Mediterranean, and European crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, all reports show favourable conditions for the cropping regions. Markets remain in a demand driven market, with limited production news to send the market in either direction. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates, followthe link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/
Wheat Market Outlook - January 26, 2026
2026/01/26
MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT Western Canadian export wheat bids picked up $2 per tonne week-over-week at the port and seeing some similar strength at inland locations. Bids have been relatively flat with basis improvements being thrown at producer bids to entice product into the system when needed. The markets are watching if cold weather in the United States and Black Sea wheat production regions will threaten any crop conditions in these areas. The market sits comfortably for the time being but will keep its focus onto winter wheat conditions in Black Sea, European Union and United States. Aside from this, demand drive is what the market will need to see to chew away at some of the increased stocks that have ended up on the global balance sheet. As for Western Canadian wheat values, we are anticipating a neutral outlook for the coming weeks ahead as we currently sit in a demand driven market and global supplies have grown as Australia and Argentina wrapped up their harvest. Producers will want to pencil Feb. 6, 2026, Stocks of Principal Field Crop Report into their calendars. The report will be the next large fundamental CDN data available for markets to trade upon and is just on the horizon. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market and will need to do so to move out our larger inventories. The gap between USA and CDN West Coast bids narrowed week over-week.   MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM Price outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Algeria’s tender for durum helps chew up a few more tonnes of Canadian durum. Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada / globally and exports are strong vs where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Turkey has turned into a net importer of durum grain, and we will need to see how demand into some of our key players forecasts out. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and, plus how the North African and Mediterranean, European crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, all reports show favorable conditions for the cropping regions. Markets remain in a demand driven market. With limited production news to send market in either direction. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/
Wheat Market Outlook - January 19, 2026
2026/01/19
MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT Western Canadian cash wheat bids lost $1 per tonne week over week but remain in the trading range for cash values we have seen since late November. Western Canadian bids for producers have been quite steady overall with limited moves to the upside. Basis has been found to strengthen when futures weaken in Central SK values. Producers continue to fill the system with wheat around these values as producer deliveries and exports continue at a steady pace, although slightly behind where we were heading into the new year. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining itscompetitiveness in the global market and will need to do so to move out our larger inventories. The market sits comfortably for the time being but will begin to shift its focus onto winter wheat conditions in the Black Sea, European Union and United States in the coming months. Aside from this, demand drive is what the market will need to see to chew away at some of the increased stocks that are being presented as Argentina and Australia wrap up their harvests. For Western Canadian wheat values, we are anticipating a neutral outlook for the coming weeks ahead as we currently sit in a demand driven market. Producers may want to pencil the Feb. 6, 2026, Stocks of Principal Field Crop Acres Report into their calendars. The report will be the next large fundamental CDN data available for markets to trade upon. MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM Price outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Algeria’s tender for durum helps chew up a few more tonnes of Canadian durum. Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada / globally and exports are strong vs where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Turkey has turned into a net importer of durum grain, and we will need to see how demand into some of our key players forecasts out. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and, plus how the North African and Mediterranean, European crop prospects appear over the coming months. Right now, we are in a demand driven market with limited production news to send market in either direction. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/
Wheat Market Outlook - January 12, 2026
2026/01/12
MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT Western Canadian cash wheat bids grabbed $2 per tonne week-over-week but remain in the trading range for cash values we have seen since late November. Producers continue to fill the system with wheat around these values as producer deliveries and exports continue at a steady pace. Exports were down week-over-week to some of the lowest values of the year. 224,000 tonnes (525,500 tonnes week prior) left the borders in Week 22, but holiday trade could be blamed partly for that move. Canadian wheat needs to remain competitive into the world market and a growing supply of wheat globallywill cap major moves to the upside. Market sits comfortably for the time beingbut will begin to shift its focus onto winter wheat conditions in the Black Sea, European Union and United States in the coming months. Aside from this, demand drive is what the market will need to see to chew away at some of theincreased stocks that are being presented as Argentina and Australia wrap up their harvests. Fully updated charts below in this week’s report from today's USDA WASDE and FAS reports. Western Canadian wheat market outlook remains relatively neutral for the current time. MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM Price outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for Western Canadian producers. Algeria’s tender for durum helps chew up a few more tonnes of Canadian durum. Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada and exports are strong vs where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Turkey has turned into a net importer of durum grain, and we will need to see how demand into some of our key players forecasts out. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and, plus how the North African, Mediterranean, and European crop prospects appear over the coming months. Right now, we are in a demand driven market.If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link: https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

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