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Political commentator Mike Indian says that the Iran war will have a profound and lasting effect upon the UK government. In the short term, it has strengthened the Prime Minister's position, with his "Steady Eddie" persona. But the cost of living will come to the fore, with energy, food, CO2 and fertiliser costs all rising and the possibility of food shortages. The PM has come under attack for delays in defence spending. It is one thing to announce an increase in investment but it is important how the money will be spent. We don't appear to have learnt from the Ukraine invasion about the importance of shortening supply chains. Mike discusses the extraordinary intervention by J D Vance in the Hungarian election. Many European leaders will breathe a sigh of relief at Orban's outing but it is not clear what Magyar is for and how he will use his power. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University thinks that a huge political realignment is happening in the West. There's a new type of discourse which is less about economics, as it largely was for almost a century, and more about identitarian politics, about the shifting sands of statecraft and the nature of the nation state and borders. It's a big, historic inflexion point which Tim believes will be the biggest geopolitical upheaval since the last 1940s. The boom in higher education in the UK turned into a bubble and bubbles are prone to burst. The sector is in crisis, with culling of courses and institutions while student loans are now a hot political football. Clearly it is a bad idea for national targets to be set for higher education, but Tim wonders why there is no competition for student loans. Why can't institutions compete with the government and develop their own products? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Political commentator Mike Indian discusses Trump's threat to leave NATO, saying that the closer the mid-term elections are, the more desperate Trump becomes. It is hard to see what has been achieved by the US action against Iran, other than entrenching the regime's hardliners and closing a vital trade route. Trump's threat is a frightening prospect, as NATO is the bedrock of European security. With the UK local elections just a few weeks away, Keir Starmer has opted to focus on the cost of living. One of his aims is to seek closer economic ties with the EU. Mike hopes that he will take the chance to talk up collective security for which – in the fact of Trump's threats – Europe needs a long-term strategy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Professor Tim Evans says that to understand Donald Trump, you need to know that, in the late 80s and early 90s, he was a close friend of Richard Nixon, who told him that he used the persona of an irrational madman to unsettle others. Indeed, Nixon and his wife urged Trump to enter politics. In terms of policy, Trump is also a devotee of Reagan and William McKinley, an advocate of tariffs in America's interests. The Archbishop of Canterbury is one of the most important constitutional positions in Britain. In an increasingly secular age, the new Archbishop will have a challenging task ahead, but Tim feels that she is the right person for the job. The issue of Net Zero has come to the fore in the midst of an energy crisis like the 1970s. Tim ponders the politics of it, wondering if it could become as divisive as Brexit. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Political commentator Mike Indian says that in the light of the Iran war, the interests of Western nations are diverging sharply, with increasingly erratic American foreign policy – "muscular isolationism" – straining UK-US relations. The US President doesn't seem to see a need to keep allies onside and looks increasingly out of touch. The huge increase in the price of oil and gas is having an effect worldwide, but particularly in the UK, where we rely on natural gas for heating bu have little storage and rely on imports, posing problems for Ed Miliband. However, if Starmer's government could show strong leadership in an economic emergency, it could be the making of him. A sharp rise in inflation, though, could put the government under incredible pressure, as could more Mandelson files and low pay growth. Mike feels Angela Rayner will return to the Cabinet after the May elections but what role could she be offered and what would she be willing to accept? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that English common law is the absolute jewel of the UK and that the undermining of trial by jury is utterly shocking; doubly so that it is being done by Labour, which has usually been at the vanguard of civil liberties. The UK public setor is withering and being hollowed out from the inside. He discusses whether the equality of women in society was not only a political story but also an economic one, concluding that – as with other stories of liberation – it is a bit of both. Reform is now Britain's best-funded political party, which is of particular significance in the run-up to the local elections. Tim notes that Reform is now stealing Tory policies such as setting up a sovereign wealth fund. Better late than never. If it encourages other parties to commit to this, then all to the good. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Political commentator Mike Indian says that Kier Starmer's decision to stay out of the strikes on Iran is wise. There is no sense of an end-game plan. All this is a long way from Trump's first-term rhetoric of "no foreign wars". It is hard to see this as anything but naked aggression. We, however, have built our post-war security under the US nuclear umbrella and our failure to protect our bases merely highlights the cutbacks in our armed forces in the last 15 years or so. If we are smart, perhaps we will use the conflict as a spur to increase our defence budget. Has Starmer's refusal to help harmed the "Special Relationship"? That hasn't really existed since Bush and Blair. Iran will run out of ammunition before the Americans but what happens then? The muted reaction to the Spring Statement shows how quiet things have become on the Rachel Reeves' front. The forecasts for growth have been downgraded but the Chancellor is still on track to meet her tax and spending rules. A surge in inflation as a result of "events" could yet pose her problems. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University wonders what the Gorton and Denton by-election could portend for British politics. Could it be another signpost to the end of traditional two-party politics? Is something going wrong for the established political class? Might it signal the end of Starmer's Premiership? Tim cites both a study into NHS maternity services and a statement from a former health minister that doubling the NHS budget over 20 years has made no difference to the nation's health as evidence of the truth of Gammon's Law about the growth of bureaucracy displacing useful work. Lastly, he and Simon discuss the loss of a mutual friend, Simon Richards, former chief executive of the Freedom Association. Dubbed "the nicest man in British politics", he wore his politics lightly but had an amazing talent for bringing people together. In an age where politicians are so earnest and serious, we need more people like Simon. He, and his infectious laugh, will be much missed. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Political commentator Mike Indian marvels at the Prime Minister's extraordinary survival act over the past fortnight or so, despite the circling vultures. His new cabinet secretary, Antonia Romeo, has just been appointed to disprove the talk of an inner circle "boys' club", but it's a moment of maximum danger for the Labour government with public anger at central government and the elite at a peak. Starmer probably only has weeks left, particularly after the astonishing U-turn over cancelling local elections and the revelation that the legal advice on this only came to light just ahead of Reform's court case. However, the battle for Starmer's soul is not over. This week also saw the unveiling of Reform's "shadow cabinet", aiming to show that they can be seen as a credible political force with a broad team ready to govern. If they do as well as predicted in the local elections, this will make life for the party more complex and expose them to yet more scrutiny. It would be ironic after what has transpired if there is a low turnout. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that the increasing unaffordability of daily living is something politicians won't admit to. It was masked for a time by the influx of cheap Chinese goods but no longer, pushed up by Net Zero, the minimum wage, tax rises and ever more burdensome regulations and government interventions. The costs of energy and housing are having the biggest effect, with property up by 250% since 2000. Only in the remaining free market areas is it not the case, thanks to the magic of capitalism. Less than two years after the election, Labour is now as divided and fractious as the Tories were and Tim cannot foresee the Labour Party patching things up. The electorate is increasingly reminded of the last Tory government. He also considers how Trump is rapidly reshaping our world, with his actions towards Venezuela, Cuba and Iran effectively taking some of Putin's chess pieces off the board. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Mandelson revelations, says Mike Indian, is a serious issue, going to the heart of the UK government. It questions the political judgement of Sir Keir Starmer and his staff. Clearly Mandelson should not have been appointed without due diligence being carried out, particularly given that he has had to resign twice in the past over personal scandals. Mike does not expect Labour to hold the Gorton and Denton seat when the by-election is held later this month, reckoning that the Greens will win. Labour is haemorrhaging votes but Mike feels that it would have been a great distraction if Andy Burnham had been the candidate. However, he is not convinced that the Prime Minister has it in him to survive beyond the May elections. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that housing is one of the most important issues in the UK and that young people being unable to get on the housing ladder could have serious social and political consequences. He wondered why, when the Georgian style of homes is the most popular style of architecture with the public, the majority of contemporary houses look so unprepossessing. He is staggered by the level of often contradictory housebuilding regulations, which would not permit the construction of Georgian-style houses. Turning to London, he notes that housebuilding in London has fallen 84% in the last decade and that Sadiq Khan is falling short of his housebuilding target by a massive 90%. Given this, Tim wonders what the Mayor's legacy will be. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Political commentator Mike Indian tries his best not to mention “the giant orange elephant in the room”. He discusses the Lords amendment which would impose a ban on social media for the under-16s. This would follow a similar move in Australia and has strong cross-party consensus. Robert Jenrick’s defection to Reform was undermined to some extent by the response from a more assertive Kemi Badenoch which took some of the wind out of Nigel Farage’s sails. He does not have a history of playing nicely with people and Jenrick may yet find himself a bit player in the Nigel Farage Show. As for Trump’s speech in Davos, despite his trampling of the rule-based international order, he clearly yearns for acceptance from the world elite. But, as his health fails, he is becoming increasingly erratic and may yet try and find a way to get a third term. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

For his first appearance in 2026, Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University looks as what he feels will be the big themes for the United Kingdom this year: geopolitics; living standards; state efficiency; devolution; leadership, the EU; trade & tech; and Net Zero. When it comes to ID cards, with the government heavily influenced by Tony Blair, the protests against the scheme made the public – who had been moderately in favour – realise the drawbacks and cost, so that it became a political liability. Tim cantered through the various Labour U-turns on income tax thresholds, workers' rights, the WASPI women, grooming gangs, winter fuel payments, pub business rates, farming inheritance tax and welfare reforms. Labour appears to have no strategy. The U-turns smack of weakness and, in the public mind, echo the 14 years of Conservative rule. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Political commentator Mike Indian says that President Trump's abduction of Nicolás Maduro sets a new and dangerous precedent in international relations. It's a spectacular gesture but a "gesture" is all that it is and it could further destabilise an already unstable country. Trump's stated aims for Greenland risk undermining NATO and relations between the US and Europe. Mike believes he is acting to create a legacy, exerting power in the most direct way he can. However, even the US could overextend itself and then find that it does, after all, need other countries. In the meantime, Trump's actions will simply embolden the world's autocrats. 2026 could be a very volatile year. In the UK, Keir Starmer looks to be in a stronger position than he was before Christmas. There does not seem to be a credible challenge to his leadership. To some extent, his unpopularity is now almost a boon, as it is out of the way. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices