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For the final Bigger Picture with Simon Rose, Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University looks back over the past 12 years of the programme. Into the good category, he places the advances in technology in areas like medicine, the digital world and the AI revolution. This will give a huge uplift to developing countries. As to the bad, that would include the polarisation of political life as the state hollows itself out from the inside, with taxes at an all-time high and services getting ever worse. Tim highlights the number of people under 40 abandoning the NHS, who believe they won't get a state pension for them and who see their future not in Britain but abroad. The ugly is the ever increasing indebtedness of the world's most advanced democracies and the rising authoritarianism which threatens the underpinning of our open society. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It is hard to say what finished off Keir Starmer as PM, says Mike Indian. It was political death by a thousand cuts. But he seemed to be decent and honourable and tried to do his best. Posterity will probably be kinder to him than many current critics are. It now seems certain that Andy Burnham will become Prime Minister and Mike thinks it right that there won't be a distracting leadership contest. Burnham says he will stick to Reeves's fiscal rules which means he will have to show a lot of creative thinking. He is more charming and wittier than Starmer, but will that be enough? His appointment of Chancellor will be crucial. We don't really know what a Burnham premiership will look like. Mike reflects that in the nine years he and Simon Rose have been discussing The Bigger Picture, the world has become a less certain place, politics is now a lot less kind and public trust in institutions and politicians has declined considerably. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University is concerned about the illiberal realities of a blanket ban on social media for children. It lets parents off the hook, infringes civil liberties and free speech and could be a slippery slope towards universal ID. Such heavy-handed restrictions have dangerous unintended consequences; just think about Prohibition and the War on Drugs. Tim is worried that it may end up pushing young people into harm's way. He also is puzzled that dramatic changes in Cuba are not being widely reported. US sanctions have forced the authorities to accept that they must move towards a degree of capitalism. But they intend doing it by pivoting towards China, an idea rejected by the US. Whatever happens, reinstating a degree of private property rights is a massive political story. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Political commentator Mike Indian finds it worrying how quickly narratives about events such as those in Southampton and Belfast can take on a life of their own, with some comments from politicians at home and overseas being less than helpful. A myth has sprung up about a two-tier justice system, weaponised by figures on the right. It taps into a lack of faith in our institutions. Ultimately, we all have an interest in how our streets are policed. It would appear that the Prime Minister is going to apply tighter controls to social media companies regarding under 16s. With the Makerfield by-election soon upon us, he may not be in office much longer: this could be his attempt at a legacy. But a blanket ban will be very difficult to enforce. While Makerfield may seem an important by-election, changing the leadership of the Labour Party will undermine its legitimacy. Whoever is in charge should concentrate on how the government can make people's lives better. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University believes that the recent interventions by Alan Milburn and Tony Blair are being ignored within the Labour Party, which is also oblivious to news that as many union members support Reform as they do Labour. It is clear that the new leader, if there is one, will be incapable of learning what needs to be done to win back the public, which would also pose problems for the Tories and Reform. Instead, Labour struggles to know what it is about, much like the Tories. Tim also believes that the UK police force is another failed brand, no longer an arms-length neutral institution but a part of the state and a political football. It is hard to see how the police force can extricate itself and rebuild its reputation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Political commentator Mike Indian discusses the essay from the Ghost of Labour Past, Tony Blair, saying that Labour has lost its way. While he is right about some things, the essay has gone down like a lead balloon with many in the party, with Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting laying into him. Ahead of the Makerfield by-election, Labour is in a holding pattern. Whoever does succeed Keir Starmer will face a challenging landscape, to say the very least. Peter Murrell, who was at the heard of Scotland's governing party for 15 years or so, has admitted to embezzling £400,000. The estranged husband of Nicola Sturgeon, Murrell's case raises questions about her judgement and perhaps explains why she resigned so suddenly. Alan Milburn's "lost generation" report shows that today's young people face a perfect storm. Being detached from the labour market could harm them for the rest of their lives. But the report is not likely to find much sympathy within the Starmer government. Nor is there much in it to give young people hope. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that Labour, in office for less than two years, is at war with itself, with the party deeply divided into several factions. Labour is entering very choppy waters and may not be able to retain a level of trust with each other to keep the party together. It wouldn't be surprising if the public compared them with the Tories and think "same difference". Where are the big political beasts of yore? The unintended consequences of fully professionalised policians is that they are hugely ambitious, don't have the breadth and depth of experience of yesterday and feel separate from the ordinary public. The Greens and Reform are rediscovering the amateur tradition. Tim also discusses the battle between those who believe in the Laffer Curve and a smaller state and those who cleave to Wagner's Law, explaining why the state keeps growing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Political commentator Mike Indian summarises the UK's local election results which were a good night for Reform and the Greens but a rout for Labour, particularly in England and Wales. They don't tell us a lot, though, about where UK politics is going, except that voters are moving in different directions. It has caused panic in Labour ranks, with a steady drip of those calling for Starmer to give a timetable for his resignation. He is bloody-minded and may survive for longer, reshuffling his cabinet. Where, though, are the intellectuals and big thinkers of earlier years? Mike hopes that Ed Miliband moves to the Treasury, where his talents could make a big difference. Ultimately, popularity is less important than ideas; people want their lives to be materially better and easier and that is more important than who is in Number Ten. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University is alarmed by the fact that 16% of Britain's 16-24 year olds are unemployed. This is worse than Spain and Greece, who used to be the outliers. Cost pressures, AI, bad health and a skills mismatch are all creating a perfect storm which will have a long-term detrimental effect for many. Tony Blair's thinktank is urging Labour to scrap the "unaffordable" state pension Triple Lock. This is among the most radical policy thinking for almost 100 years. Effectively Blair is saying that the welfare state is heading towards bankruptcy. And while we are most affected by local government, rather than national, there are few bodies focussing on it. Yet council overreach on fines, roads, bins, bollards and the like are creating a collapse in trust between people and those who have most effect on their lives. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Political commentator Mike Indian analyses the recent political kerfuffle involving Olly Robbins, Morgan McSweeney & Keir Starmer. It has exposed qualities lacking in the PM, particularly his lack of curiosity, his failure to grasp the nettle and to give direction. But he appears to have 9 lives, particularly given the fact that there is no obvious successor. It may be that the economic response to events matters more than who is in Number Ten. Given the ropy relationship between the US government and Starmer, the King's visit to the United States and his address to the US Congress has shown the value of the Royal Family when it comes to soft diplomatic power. It was a considerable PR victory, reminding the Americans why we are an important diplomatic ally. But the UK needs a fundamental re-evaluation of our geo-political alliances and should work to be more independent. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Political commentator Mike Indian says that the Iran war will have a profound and lasting effect upon the UK government. In the short term, it has strengthened the Prime Minister's position, with his "Steady Eddie" persona. But the cost of living will come to the fore, with energy, food, CO2 and fertiliser costs all rising and the possibility of food shortages. The PM has come under attack for delays in defence spending. It is one thing to announce an increase in investment but it is important how the money will be spent. We don't appear to have learnt from the Ukraine invasion about the importance of shortening supply chains. Mike discusses the extraordinary intervention by J D Vance in the Hungarian election. Many European leaders will breathe a sigh of relief at Orban's outing but it is not clear what Magyar is for and how he will use his power. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University thinks that a huge political realignment is happening in the West. There's a new type of discourse which is less about economics, as it largely was for almost a century, and more about identitarian politics, about the shifting sands of statecraft and the nature of the nation state and borders. It's a big, historic inflexion point which Tim believes will be the biggest geopolitical upheaval since the last 1940s. The boom in higher education in the UK turned into a bubble and bubbles are prone to burst. The sector is in crisis, with culling of courses and institutions while student loans are now a hot political football. Clearly it is a bad idea for national targets to be set for higher education, but Tim wonders why there is no competition for student loans. Why can't institutions compete with the government and develop their own products? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Political commentator Mike Indian discusses Trump's threat to leave NATO, saying that the closer the mid-term elections are, the more desperate Trump becomes. It is hard to see what has been achieved by the US action against Iran, other than entrenching the regime's hardliners and closing a vital trade route. Trump's threat is a frightening prospect, as NATO is the bedrock of European security. With the UK local elections just a few weeks away, Keir Starmer has opted to focus on the cost of living. One of his aims is to seek closer economic ties with the EU. Mike hopes that he will take the chance to talk up collective security for which – in the fact of Trump's threats – Europe needs a long-term strategy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Professor Tim Evans says that to understand Donald Trump, you need to know that, in the late 80s and early 90s, he was a close friend of Richard Nixon, who told him that he used the persona of an irrational madman to unsettle others. Indeed, Nixon and his wife urged Trump to enter politics. In terms of policy, Trump is also a devotee of Reagan and William McKinley, an advocate of tariffs in America's interests. The Archbishop of Canterbury is one of the most important constitutional positions in Britain. In an increasingly secular age, the new Archbishop will have a challenging task ahead, but Tim feels that she is the right person for the job. The issue of Net Zero has come to the fore in the midst of an energy crisis like the 1970s. Tim ponders the politics of it, wondering if it could become as divisive as Brexit. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Political commentator Mike Indian says that in the light of the Iran war, the interests of Western nations are diverging sharply, with increasingly erratic American foreign policy – "muscular isolationism" – straining UK-US relations. The US President doesn't seem to see a need to keep allies onside and looks increasingly out of touch. The huge increase in the price of oil and gas is having an effect worldwide, but particularly in the UK, where we rely on natural gas for heating bu have little storage and rely on imports, posing problems for Ed Miliband. However, if Starmer's government could show strong leadership in an economic emergency, it could be the making of him. A sharp rise in inflation, though, could put the government under incredible pressure, as could more Mandelson files and low pay growth. Mike feels Angela Rayner will return to the Cabinet after the May elections but what role could she be offered and what would she be willing to accept? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices