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Indian Markets snapped four day losing streak; Broader markets outperformed Wall Street Ends Higher as Anthropic IPO Filing Fuels AI Optimism Wall Street began the week on a firm footing, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 146 points, or 0.3%. The S&P 500 gained 0.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.8%, led by technology shares. The artificial-intelligence theme received a fresh boost after Anthropic filed for an initial public offering on the Nasdaq. Semiconductor stocks rallied sharply, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) rising nearly 3%. Nvidia gained 2.4%, Micron 3%, Broadcom 2.3% and AMD 2.8%. US Treasury yields remained largely unchanged, with the 10-year yield closing just below 5%. Oil prices edged lower after reports that officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan met Iranian counterparts as part of efforts to ease regional tensions and support negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate futures slipped to nearly $101 per barrel, while Brent crude declined to $109.50 per barrel. Investor attention now shifts to a heavy corporate-earnings calendar and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged when it releases its policy statement on Wednesday. The US central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady, with fed-funds futures pricing a 90% probability that the target range will remain at 3.75%–4%. Markets will, however, look for clues on a possible rate hike in December. Wall Street is also monitoring the November 3 US midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress. Asian markets are trading mostly higher today following Wall Street's rally after Anthropic filed for an initial public offering (IPO) and renewed investor appetite for AI related stocks. South Korea’s Kospi and Japan’s Nikkei 225 trading with gains of 2% and 4% respectively while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng trading with minor losses. Coming to our markets, Nifty snapped a four-session losing streak, gaining 153 points to close at 22,753. It was a highly volatile session, with the index swinging in both directions through first part of the session. The bulls regained control in the second half, driving a recovery of over 200 points from the mid-session low and pushing the index to finish near the day’s high. Market breadth strengthened, with the BSE advance–decline ratio climbing sharply to 1.21, signalling renewed buying interest in mid- and small-cap stocks following last week’s steep correction. The Indian rupee fell for a third straight session, losing 25 paise to close at 95.19 against the US dollar, pressured by weaker Asian currencies and rising domestic bond yields. With three key central-bank decisions due this week, currency volatility is likely to remain elevated. Six Nifty constituents—Bajaj Auto, Cipla, Larsen & Toubro, Maruti Suzuki, SBI Life Insurance and Tata Steel—are scheduled to report their quarterly results today. Nifty successfully defended Friday’s low of 22,372 yesterday and staged an intraday reversal. The short-term trend would turn bullish on a sustained move above 22,800. Above this level, the index could extend its recovery toward the next resistance of 23,175. Conversely, a break below 22,372 could resume the downward move, opening the door for a decline toward the 22,100–22,200 support band. Price action over the next three sessions is likely to be shaped by derivative expiries—NSE today and BSE on Thursday—along with key central-bank policy decisions due this week. After yesterday’s sharp pullback rally, the Nifty is likely to open on a subdued note, tracking mixed Asian market cues.

Tech Slides on AI Spending Worries; Oil Jumps to One-Month High on Geopolitical Tensions U.S. equities sold off sharply on Thursday as renewed concerns over artificial-intelligence spending combined with a surge in crude prices. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.6% to 26,008.86, its worst session since June while the S&P 500 lost 1.21% to 7,663.43, its biggest daily decline since July. The Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked the trend, closing marginally higher by 11.89 points, or 0.02%, at 52,867.98, aided by strength in financials. Investors rotated away from technology into defensive sectors such as utilities, consumer staples and healthcare. Meta Platforms dropped 7%, despite beating revenue expectations and issuing upbeat guidance, as investors focused on the scale of its AI-related spending. Advanced Micro Devices fell more than 8%, while Micron Technology and Nvidia dropped 6% and 4%, respectively. Safe-haven demand lifted U.S. Treasuries, with the 10-year yield falling more than 17 basis points to 4.972%, its lowest level in nearly a month. The two-year yield shed over 16 basis points to 4.659%. Oil prices jumped to a one-month high amid reports that the U.S. and Israel may launch renewed strikes against Iran after next month’s U.S. midterm elections. Brent crude rose 4% to settle at $113.17 per barrel, while WTI gained 2.39% to $99.47 per barrel. Precious metals came under pressure, with silver futures sliding nearly 5% to around $55 per troy ounce—the lowest close since November 2025. Gold also fell sharply to a near three-month low of $4,025 per ounce. Japan’s core inflation rose to 2.1% in September, the highest this year and above expectations, driven by a weaker yen and higher energy-related import costs. Asian markets trading mixed as investors reduced exposure to technology majors on doubts over AI spending and moved toward safer assets such as Treasuries and the yen. South Korea’s Kospi fell nearly 2%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 1.8%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index trading higher by 0.2%. Coming to our markets, Nifty slipped for a third straight session, shedding 123 points to settle at 22,687. It was a highly volatile trading session with the index swinging in both directions through most part of the day. Broader markets continued to underperform. The Nifty Midcap 100 fell 0.87%, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 dropped 1.14% to its lowest level since June 12, 2026. Market breadth stayed weak, with the advance–decline ratio at 0.52, pointing to continued broad-based profit-booking across mid- and small-cap stocks. The Indian rupee snapped an eight-day winning streak, weakening 36 paise to close at 94.82 against the dollar. The currency was pressured by dollar buying, higher crude prices amid geopolitical tensions and overall risk aversion. Four Nifty constituents—Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, Infosys, JSW Steel and Shriram Finance—are scheduled to declare their quarterly results today. On the daily chart, the Nifty formed a Doji candle, signalling indecision after a volatile session. A move above yesterday’s high of 22,785 could indicate a short-term trend reversal and open the door for a recovery toward 23,175, the next key resistance. On the downside, 22,500 remains the immediate support. Nifty is likely to open with modest gains, tracking mixed global cues and sharp fall in U.S. Treasury yields.

Wall Street Rallies as SpaceX Quarterly Results Boost AI Tech Sentiment U.S. equity markets closed higher on Wednesday as corporate earnings remained in focus. Better-than-expected revenue and earnings from SpaceX, along with the latest developments around SpaceX and Tesla, led investors to rotate back into technology stocks. The Nasdaq Composite added 1.05% to end at 26,702, while the S&P 500 rose 0.58% to 7,757. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 360 points, or 0.69%, to close at 52,856. Shares of SpaceX surged 7% after the company reported 161% year-on-year revenue growth in the third quarter. Elon Musk also said that SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to discuss a potential merger. However, U.S. stock futures trading lower as investors digested third-quarter earnings from major technology companies, including Meta, Tesla and IBM. Dow futures were down nearly 150 points, while Nasdaq futures declined almost 200 points. Treasury yields ended largely unchanged as investors awaited fresh economic data ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve interest-rate decision. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose less than 1 basis point to 5.123%. Brent crude futures trading higher by $1.57, or 1.5%, to $110.39 a barrel while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude trading higher by $ 1.21 or 1.26%, to $98.36 as US orders diplomats to leave Saudi Arabia amid escalating tensions. Asian markets trading lower tracking weak U.S. futures. South Korea’s Kospi fell nearly 2%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 2%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.7%. Coming to our markets, the Nifty fell for the second consecutive session yesterday, shedding 77 points to close at 22,811. From the day’s high, the index fell sharply by 470 points to an intraday low of 22,650. Buying in the final half-hour, along with a gain of more than 70 points in the closing auction session (CAS), helped the index recover 161 points from the day’s low. Broader markets significantly underperformed the benchmarks. The Nifty Midcap 100 slipped 1.60% to a six-month low, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 plunged 2.40% to a four-month low. Market breadth remained weak, with the advance–decline ratio falling sharply to 0.28, underscoring broad-based profit-booking across mid- and small-cap stocks. The Indian rupee strengthened for an eighth consecutive session, appreciating 47 paise to close at four months high at 94.46—its longest winning streak since March 2025. The sustained momentum has been anchored by strategic central-bank intervention, healthy foreign inflows into the primary market and profit-taking in the US dollar. From the derivative pack, Adani enterprise, Colgate, Havells, Hpcl, Nam India, Sagility and Swiggy are going to decare its quarterly result today. Although Nifty breached the crucial 22,800 support intraday, it managed to close above the level, keeping hopes of an uptrend alive. Immediate support is placed at 22,650, followed by 22,500, while the recent swing high of 23,175 may act as near-term resistance. Indian markets are expected to open lower today, tracking weak Asian market cues.

Wall Street Rebounds From Deep Losses as Dow Leads on Defensive Rotation United States stock indexes bounced back from deep early-session declines to close in positive territory. While the technology-heavy Nasdaq and the S&P 500 hovered near flat lines due to persistent artificial intelligence sector jitters, both managed to pare losses by the closing bell. The market stabilisation followed reassurance from sector leaders regarding the structural financial health of prominent AI data infrastructure partners. The Dow Jones outperformed the broader market, advancing over 550 points, or approximately 1.1%. Driven by mounting anxieties regarding overextended capital investments in technology companies, market participants actively repositioned capital into consumer-staple, industrial, and transportation equities. Companies like Nike, Home Depot, and Salesforce led the blue-chip index higher as defensive allocation patterns dominated trading. The Nasdaq fell 1.88%, with semiconductors down seven straight sessions on worries about the AI trade. Asian markets plunged Thursday before dip buyers stabilised sentiment Friday. Long-term U.S. government bond yields saw significant downward pressure as investors sought refuge from macroeconomic and sector-specific risks. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield tumbled to roughly 5.09%, recording its largest single-day contraction in over twelve months. This intense bond purchasing activity signalled that fixed-income traders are prioritising safety amidst volatile conditions in the equities landscape. Fresh macroeconomic reports indicated persistent price growth, with the latest wholesale and consumer metrics rising at unexpectedly swift clips. This sticky inflation data has generated heightened concerns that the central bank may implement another interest rate hike at its upcoming policy meeting. These indicators have severely complicated the near-term economic projection, moving probability metrics closer to a coin flip for further monetary tightening. The Indian Rupee extended its winning streak to a fifth straight session yesterday, appreciating 9 paise to close at 95.06. Easing crude prices, unwinding of dollar long positions and firm domestic risk appetite supported the currency, though early gains were partly pared by a widening trade deficit and strong importer demand for dollars. Nifty resumed its upward trajectory, rallying 374 points to close at 22,997 yesterday. It decisively cleared the key 22,776 resistance, pointing to a continuation of the ongoing pullback. The earlier 22776-22,800 resistance band is now likely to act as immediate support. On the upside, 23,100–23,150 is the next resistance band; a sustained break above it could open the path toward 23,490. Short covering in select largecaps drove the market yesterday. For the rally to be sustained, it needs to spill over into midcaps and smallcaps and broaden participation. Indian equities are poised for a moderately higher open, on firm cues from Asian markets

Hot CPI Drives Tech-Led Selloff U.S. stocks closed lower, led by technology, after a hotter-than-expected September CPI report raised fears of another Fed rate hike. Headline CPI rose 3.7% year over year against a 3.6% forecast. Core CPI rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% on the year, both above forecasts, suggesting price pressures are spreading beyond energy. Indexes erased their premarket gains. The Nasdaq fell 1.88% to 26,692.87, its worst day since July 23, and the S&P 500 lost 1.11% to 7,718.94. The Dow slipped just 0.09%. Technology and communication services led the decline, and the Philadelphia semiconductor index dropped 4.3%. Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom fell sharply as higher borrowing costs and funding constraints on the AI infrastructure buildout clouded data-centre spending. Apple rose 0.5% to a record close, lifting its market value above $5 trillion, and healthcare stocks held up. Treasury yields rose on the report. The 2-year yield jumped more than 10 basis points, while the 10-year briefly touched its highest level this year before reversing lower. The odds of an October rate hike climbed to about 37% from 22%, and traders still expect a hike in December. Brent settled at $105 after Houthi strikes on Saudi Aramco and attacks on Hormuz shipping. The Indian rupee extended its winning streak for a fourth session, appreciating 13 paise to close at 95.15, supported by central-bank intervention and unwinding of long dollar positions. However, strong importer demand capped further gains. Asian equity markets experienced a sharp sell-off, led by heavy losses in technology and semiconductor shares. South Korea's KOSPI plunged 7.32% (triggering temporary emergency trading curbs), Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped 4.56%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined by 0.97%. Nifty witnessed profit booking and slipped 99 points to close at 22,622. Nifty must reclaim last week’s high of 22,776 to secure fresh bullish confirmation and that would open the way toward the next resistance band of 23,100–23,150. On the downside, 22,300 remains the pivotal support zone. Indian equities are likely to open subdued, weighed down by weak global cues.

Chip Rout and Bank Misses Cap Wall Street gains Major Wall Street benchmarks finished flat or slightly negative as investors evaluated the start of the corporate earnings season. Healthcare and manufacturing names like Johnson & Johnson and Caterpillar weighed heavily on the blue-chip Dow, offsetting initial optimism surrounding banking results. The S&P 500 finished essentially flat near 7,805, the Nasdaq fell 0.15%, and the Dow lost 0.35%. Citigroup fell 5.6%, Wells Fargo fell 3.1%, and JPMorgan fell 0.9% after a rare profit miss, while Goldman Sachs slipped 0.2% despite beating estimates and Johnson & Johnson dropped 5.7%. Technology and semiconductor stocks experienced selling pressure for a second consecutive session due to concerns over international market developments. Technological advancements from Chinese memory chip manufacturers have heightened worries about long-term US dominance in the sector. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell for a fifth straight session on Chinese memory-chip competition, with Micron down 3.6% and Applied Materials down almost 7%. Concerns over intensifying international market competition triggered a significant decline in South Korea's memory chip sector, which subsequently rippled into the U.S. markets. Brent crude oil prices hovered around $ 106 a barrel, firmly elevated due to persistent geopolitical tensions involving Iran and the wider Middle East. The decline in energy commodities helped provide temporary relief to Treasury yields as market participants pivot their attention to upcoming inflation readings. September CPI is due today in the USA, with consensus near 3.6% to 3.7% year over year, up from 3.4%, driven by energy costs. It is the last inflation reading before the Fed's October 27-28 meeting, and a higher number could pressure risk assets. NY Fed's Williams said one more hike this year is appropriate, but no further tightening is needed in 2027. Stocks recovered from session lows, Treasuries rallied, and the dollar slipped, and the 10-year yield eased to about 5.18%. Nifty staged a powerful reversal yesterday, surging 358 points, or 1.60%, to settle at 22,721—its sharpest single-session percentage gain since 12 June 2026. Indian equities rallied as hopes of relief on STT or capital gains tax grew, after the finance minister said the government is open to discussion. The rupee strengthened for a third consecutive session, gaining 49 paise to close near a one-month high. The move was supported by RBI measures to curb volatility and speculative activity, unwinding of long dollar positions, broader dollar weakness, lower crude prices and the recovery in domestic equities. Nifty’s close above the 13-day DEMA for the first time since 25 August 2026 marks an early improvement in short-term momentum. The index has also confirmed a higher top and higher bottom on a closing basis, validating a short-term bullish reversal. Resistance is now seen in the 23,100–23,150 zone; a decisive breakout above this band would further strengthen the bullish structure. On the downside, support has shifted higher to 22,580, followed by 22,300. As long as these levels hold, the near-term bias favours buying on dips. Indian equities appear set for a subdued start to the session, weighed down by a soft global backdrop.

Tech Slides on AI Valuation Worries as Treasury Yields Hit 5.3%, Oil Near $105 The technology sector experienced broad weakness today, causing the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite to finish modestly lower. Investors shifted focus into value-oriented sectors, allowing the blue-chip Dow Jones to log a positive gain. Warnings about artificial-intelligence sector valuations and a broader market rotation weighed particularly heavily on semiconductor and hardware stocks. The Dow rose 0.38% to 51,850 while the S&P 500 was flat at 7,807 and the Nasdaq fell 0.44%. Micron dropped 3.9% on Chinese rival CXMT's chip progress. Investors are shifting their focus to corporate fundamentals as major financial institutions prepare to report their third-quarter performance. Banking giants including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup will kick off the corporate earnings season today. These upcoming reports are expected to provide key insights into how sustained high bond yields have impacted economic growth. The dollar index is around 102.5, its highest since April 2025, on hawkish Fed expectations and safe-haven demand. EUR/USD is steady near 1.12 but pressured by France's debt worries, weak Italian industrial output and fading ECB hike bets. The US 10-year Treasury yield is around 5.3%, and the 30-year hit 5.70%, the highest since 2002, pressuring stocks, gold and crypto. Brent surged to $107, now hovering near 105.5 following Houthi strikes on Riyadh's airport. Crude oil benchmarks fell slightly as traders responded to reports of a potential Russia-Ukraine energy infrastructure ceasefire. Market participants remained cautious as the White House noted the unconfirmed truce focused heavily on refinery targets. Cleveland Fed's Hammack said fast, incremental tightening may be needed. Markets see about 81% odds of a hold on Oct. 28 but still expect a possible further hike by year-end. September CPI is due Wednesday, with a 3.6% y/y consensus versus 3.4% in August. PPI follows Thursday, and Fed Chair Warsh speaks Friday at the IMF-World Bank meetings, where a hawkish tone could hit risk assets. India’s retail inflation accelerated to 5.5% YoY in Sep 2026 from 4.82% in Aug-26, in line with expectations, as higher food and energy prices continued to feed into broader metrics. Core CPI edged up by 4.6% YoY in Sep-26, indicating a gradual broadening of price pressures beyond food and fuel. With headline inflation moving closer to the upper end of the RBI’s 2-6% target band, upside risks have intensified amid El Niño concerns, a deficient monsoon and elevated global commodity prices The Indian rupee was the strongest performer among its Asian peers, appreciating 96 paise to close at 95.77. The move was supported by the RBI’s targeted measures to curb speculation and contain volatility in the forex market. After opening higher, profit-taking set in almost immediately and persisted throughout yesterday's session, pulling the Nifty nearly 250 points lower from its high to close near the day’s low. A sustained move above last week’s high of 22,776 would be needed to signal a bullish trend reversal. On the downside, 22,180 is near-term support; a break below it could signal a resumption of the downtrend. Asian markets opened lower today, followed by Wall Street, as Technology stocks, particularly chipmakers, came under pressure as investors reduced exposure to growth-oriented shares ahead of earnings announcements and inflation readings. Indian equities appear set for a subdued start to the session, weighed down by a soft global backdrop.

OpenAI Revenue Shortfall Hits AI and Chip Stocks Technology and semiconductor shares sold off after OpenAI reported annualised revenue of about $50B, roughly $20B below expectations. The report deepened doubts over debt-funded AI infrastructure spending. The Nasdaq fell 1.25% to 27,193, and the S&P 500 lost 0.47% to 7,765, while the Dow edged up 0.09% to 51,225. Oracle slid about 5.5%, Micron 4.8%, Broadcom 4.4%, AMD nearly 4% and Nvidia nearly 3%. Fresh tanker attacks in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, hurricane-related cuts to US output and reports that the Pentagon is preparing major strikes added to the crude rally - Brent oil rose above $103. Trump said he does not want an Iran deal, though crude eased after he said he would not attack before the midterms. The 10-year yield eased to about 5.23% after strong demand at the 30-year auction. Fed officials Waller and Musalem signalled further hikes, with markets pricing in about 83% odds of a December hike versus 17.7% for October. Trump administration announced a sweeping suspension of several massive tech and IT service giants from the Permanent Labour Certification (PERM) program—the essential employer-sponsored pathway used by H-1B holders to obtain a Green Card. TCS's Q2FY27 performance signals a gradual improvement in growth momentum (+0.5% QoQ CC), led by its international business and accelerating AI adoption, even as macro remains unchanged and discretionary spending is muted. The rupee ended with minor losses, depreciating 1 paise to close at 96.78. Pressure on the Indian rupee persisted, driven by rising crude oil prices and sustained FII outflows. Nifty breached the previous swing-low support at 22,217 as well as the key April 2026 swing low of 22,182. The decisive breakdown of these levels indicates a further escalation in selling pressure and an intensification of the ongoing downtrend. The next support for the index is placed near 21,750, while 22,400 and 22,600 are likely to act as immediate resistance levels. Indian equities are poised for a moderately higher open, on firm Asian cues.

Start of Earnings Season to Drive Markets as Interest Rate, Currency and Crude Worries Persist Major U.S. stock indexes retreated from their all-time highs as investors locked in gains. The Dow Jones dropped 0.66%, while both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.22% following their record-breaking sessions. This pullback was heavily driven by heightened energy price volatility and lingering inflation anxieties. Long-term U.S. bond yields soared to levels not seen since 2002, with the 30-year Treasury yield scaling to 5.66% and the 10-year note touching 5.37% in early trading. Heavy pressure in the fixed-income sector initially rattled equities, though yields moderately pared back their daily gains following a solid $39 billion government auction of 10-year notes. Global energy benchmarks remained elevated, with Brent crude stabilising around the $102 per barrel threshold. Persistent anxiety regarding attacks on supply lines in the Strait of Hormuz continues to bolster prices, creating a structural undercurrent of inflation worries that is complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary trajectory. EURO fell about 0.6% to near 1.119. French fiscal stress, Spain's snap election and Brent above $100 are weighing on the euro. The RBI MPC hiked the repo rate by 25bps for the first time since Feb’2023 to 5.5%, citing hardening inflation and the re-escalation of the West Asia crisis and the resulting hardening and volatility in global crude prices. It also changed the stance from ‘neutral’ to ‘calibrated tightening’, indicating that rate cuts are off the table and there would be further hikes or a pause in the coming months. The rupee depreciated 36 paise to close at a five-month low of 96.78, marking its second-weakest close on record and underperforming most Asian currencies. Sentiment weakened after the RBI adopted a hawkish stance amid renewed inflation concerns. A rebound in crude oil prices and heightened risk aversion added to the pressure, keeping dollar bulls firmly in control. TCS is going to report Q2 FY27 results today, after market hours, with the board also due to consider a second interim dividend. The market expects revenue growth of about 0.5% QoQ and 2.8% YoY, broadly stable margins versus Q1, and TCV of $10–11 billion. The focus is on whether growth stabilises and how quickly margins can move toward the 25%+ exit target. Nifty resumed its downward trajectory, declining 173 points to close at 22,603 yesterday amid a highly volatile trading session. Immediate resistance is placed near 22,800, aligned with the 10-day EMA, while key supports are seen at 22,397 and 22,217. A sustained move above 22,800 would be required to signal meaningful short-term recovery. Indian equities look set for a muted open in the absence of strong global triggers.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq reach historic heights as artificial intelligence trade re-ignites Major US stock indexes advanced as tech giants paced a broader market rally, sending the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to fresh closing records. The upward momentum was fueled by investor optimism surrounding artificial intelligence hardware leaders and upwardly revised corporate earnings expectations for the upcoming season. The S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to a record close at 7,819, and the Nasdaq notched a second straight record near 27,599. The Dow added roughly 250 points as AI-linked shares led the gains. Fixed-income pressure on equities relaxed slightly as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield pulled back from near its multi-decade high above 5.3%. The 10-year yield fell to about 5.27% after touching a level not seen since 2002, which helped equities. Economic data revealed the US domestic trade deficit expanded to $105.6 billion in August, exceeding consensus forecasts. Driven by a surge in record import levels, the gap reflects the widest imbalance observed since early 2025. Crude oil rebounded as a Gulf of Mexico storm threatening US output and refineries, together with Houthi attacks on Saudi airports, outweighed higher Middle East exports and the G7's 100-million-barrel reserve release. The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee announces its decision today at 10:00 am, and the consensus is a 25 bp hike in the repo rate to 5.50% from 5.25%, the first increase since February 2023. Eight of 10 economists in a poll expect the hike, so it is a majority call rather than a unanimous one. Rising inflation, surging oil prices and rupee pressure are behind the expectation. Markets will focus on the guidance rather than the decision itself, especially the vote split, any shift in stance away from neutral, and the revised inflation and growth projections. The Indian rupee depreciated 13 paise to close at 96.42 against the US dollar, weighed down by continued dollar demand from FPIs and oil companies. Market participants will now focus on the RBI’s monetary-policy decision due today, along with the trajectory of foreign capital flows. Nifty gained for the second consecutive session yesterday, rising 220 points to close at 22,776. Immediate resistance is placed at 22,875, followed by 23,080. On the downside, support has shifted higher to around 22,550. Indian equities are poised for a subdued open, on rising energy costs and weaker cues from Asian markets.

Nasdaq Hits Record as Nvidia Leads Wall Street rallied on AI-linked strength, with the Nasdaq Composite rising 1.05% to a record close of 27,477, the S&P 500 gaining 0.66% to 7,774 and the Dow adding 0.18%. Nvidia closed at a record high, surpassing its mid-May peak and anchoring the tech advance ahead of earnings season, though elevated yields continued to weigh on non-AI sectors. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 5.31%, up roughly 50 bps in a month, while a September payrolls print of 29,000 against an 84,000 estimate lifted market-implied odds of an October Fed hold to about 78% from 36% a week earlier. In currency markets, the euro fell to 1.1161, its lowest since May 2025, as French 10-year yields hit their highest since 2002 and the France-Germany spread widened past 140 bps, with political turmoil in Spain and record speculative euro shorts adding pressure while the dollar index touched an annual high. Crude fell about 2% as Middle East exports recovered toward pre-war levels and a 100-million-barrel G7 emergency release and a Saudi price cut added pressure. After shedding half a per cent last week, the Indian Rupee steadied, appreciating 3 paise to close at 96.29 as easing supply concerns pulled crude oil prices lower. While improving risk-on sentiment provided an additional cushion for the local currency, market participants remain focused on the upcoming RBI monetary policy decision and foreign capital flows. The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee is meeting October 5-7, with the decision due tomorrow. Markets are leaning toward a 25 bp repo hike to 5.50%, with 38 of 61 economists in a poll expecting it. Nifty snapped its four-day losing streak, advancing 133 points to settle at 22,555 yesterday. Short-term indicators are deeply oversold, increasing the likelihood of a technical bounce. Immediate resistance sits at 22,655 and 22,810—a decisive breakout above this zone is essential to signal a meaningful recovery. Conversely, a move below the swing low of 22,397 could extend the decline toward 22,200. Indian equities are poised for a moderately higher open, on firm cues from Wall Street

Nifty Tumbles to Five-Month Low on Rising Energy Prices & Rate Hike Fears. U.S. stocks closed mixed as an afternoon rally in Big Tech pared steeper earlier losses. The Dow fell 0.3% for a third straight decline, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed essentially flat as investors weighed surging Treasury yields against rising oil prices. Growth and tech names — most rate-sensitive — continued to weigh on sentiment. The Treasury Department bought back $4.08 billion of long-term debt, well short of the $6 billion cap set by Secretary Scott Bessent. Offers were heavily rejected — just 12 of 35 eligible issues were accepted — undercutting the operation's aim of easing surging yields. The 30-year yield pushed higher still, hovering near 5.4%. Communication Services led sector gains, with Meta Platforms up 4% after detailing monetisation plans for its AI agent. Data management firm Everpure rose over 11% after reaffirming full-year guidance, while Nvidia shares swung on news of a $13 billion deal to acquire Hugging Face. The 10-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high near 5.14%. Hawkish Fed and ECB commentary, paired with strong U.S. PMI data, lifted the odds of an October Fed hike to roughly 70%. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 47.8 in September from 51.7 in August, a 7.5% monthly drop, underscoring growing consumer unease. Durable goods orders offered a partial offset, beating expectations with a 1.1% month-over-month gain. The rupee remained under pressure, depreciating 21 paise to close at 95.95, weighed down by soft Asian peers and a weak domestic equity market. A rebound in crude oil prices, elevated bond yields and rising expectations of higher interest rates added to the currency’s headwinds. Nifty resumed its downtrend with a massive fall of 383 points to close at 23063, the lowest since 6th April 2026. This is the biggest one-session percentage fall since 8th July 2026 for Nifty. The breakdown decisively pushes Nifty below the lower boundary of its recent 23,100–23,600 consolidation zone. This signals a continuation of the primary downtrend, with sellers in firm control and momentum skewed to the downside. Insurance distributor stocks tumbled sharply yesterday on the back of regulatory concerns, extending losses amid heightened sector-wide selling pressure. Positional support now lies around 22,700, aligning with the upward-sloping trendline connecting the swing lows of June 2024, April 2025 and April 2026. On the upside, near-term resistance has shifted down to 23,300. Indian markets are set for a weak open, tracking subdued global cues.

Wall Street Slides as Fed Hike Fears Return US equities fell sharply, snapping record runs, as the 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5%. The Nasdaq dropped 1.1% to 26,936, giving back its two prior record closes. The S&P 500 and Dow lost 0.8% and 0.7%. The Russell 2000 fell roughly 1%. A strong S&P Global flash PMI drove the move. The composite index rose to 58.4 in September from 56.0 in August, the strongest private-sector expansion since July 2021. Services led (58.7 vs 56.5), and manufacturing jumped to 56.7 from 53.1 on stronger new orders, well above forecasts. The 10-year yield rose to about 5.06%, its highest since 2007, and the 2-year to about 4.87%, raising the odds of another Fed hike in October. Brent recovered above $100 per barrel as hopes of a near-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faded. Quantum computing stocks bucked the trend after IonQ announced a real-time error-correction advance ahead of the Quantum World Congress. The advance removes a key bottleneck for fault-tolerant computing. United States and China agreed to extend the "Busan Agreement" trade truce until January 10, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced after meeting Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. Investors are closely watching the high-profile US-China summit in Washington for trade and diplomatic signals that could sway risk sentiment across asset classes. Additional focus turns to US jobless claims, building permits, and Fed speeches from Williams, Barkin, and Hammack for further direction on rate expectations. The Indian government reduced import duties on edible oils to help ease food inflation ahead of the festive season. Import duties on crude palm and soya oils were cut to 5% from 10%, while duties on refined variants were lowered to 27.5% from 32.5%. The rupee snapped a four-day winning streak, depreciating 15 paise to close at 95.74, amid broad-based dollar strength and elevated dollar demand from importers. Markets are also beginning to price in a rate hike from the RBI. Nifty continues to oscillate within the trading range of the large move on September 15, 2026. The 23,500–23,600 zone will continue to act as a key resistance band, while the 23,100–23,150 zone is expected to provide strong support. A sustained move above 23,600 would strengthen the bullish outlook, whereas a break below 23,100 could put renewed pressure on the index. Indian equities are poised for a lower open, on the back of weak global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary Longest Weekly Losing Streak for Nifty Since 2020 US equities ended a volatile week mixed as markets digested the Fed's rate hike. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.7% on dip-buying in mega-cap semiconductor and software stocks, while the Dow fell 1.7%, its steepest weekly drop since March, and the S&P 500 slipped marginally. Indices steadied late in the week after mid-week pressure from the hawkish policy shift. The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 empowers President Trump to impose tariffs of up to 100% on buyers of Russian oil and gas, putting India and China at risk. The move comes as India-US trade talks continue. The market will likely watch Trump and Xi meet in Washington on 24 September, their second meeting this year after May talks in Beijing that yielded no substantive agreements. Tariffs, critical minerals, AI and Taiwan are likely to dominate. With the 2025 Busan truce expiring in November, both sides face pressure to extend the pause on tariff escalation and rare-earth export controls. Indian markets ended the truncated past week in the red, falling for the sixth straight week as elevated crude oil prices and rising global bond yields weighed on investor sentiment. Despite Friday's bounce, Nifty ended the week down 0.22%, its longest weekly losing streak since 2020, while Sensex fell 0.65%. Fluctuating Brent crude oil prices and sustained elevation in global commodity costs added pressure to India’s import bill and corporate operating margins. Over the week, the Moody’s raised its FY27 real GDP growth forecast for India to 7% from 6%, citing the economy’s resilience amid the West Asia conflict. However, the agency flagged continued risks despite expecting India to maintain relatively strong growth among G20 economies and similarly rated emerging markets. Markets are tracking the NSE IPO, with listing planned for September 24, as one of the week's major domestic events. Globally, the anticipated September 24 meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, along with India's flash PMI and infrastructure output data, will be key catalysts. Nifty closed higher on Friday, adding 75 points to finish at 23,346. The index has now retraced 271 points of the 474-point fall recorded on 15 September, meaning more than 50% of that sharp decline has been recovered, a clear breather for bulls. Broader markets have outperformed benchmarks like Nifty and Bank Nifty during this rebound, which is an encouraging sign for overall market sentiment. 23600 remains the key resistance for the Nifty; a sustained move above this level would confirm a bullish trend reversal. On the downside, the recent swing low near 23,100 appears to have formed a support base for Nifty. Indian markets are poised for a flat to mildly negative opening amid concerns over higher U.S. tariffs and the worsening geopolitical situation in the Russia–Ukraine war.

Technology stocks lead Wall Street higher as oil eases, Treasury yields dip U.S. stocks staged a sharp recovery yesterday, reversing the prior session's sell-off in a broad, tech-led rally. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.7% (adding nearly 440 points), the S&P 500 gained 1.1%, and the Dow rose 0.6%. The rebound was driven by falling Treasury yields and softer oil prices, which eased near-term inflation concerns and helped markets move past the Federal Reserve's unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike. Tech led the advance, with the S&P 500 Information Technology index up more than 2% on strength in names like Intel and Super Micro Computer, as investors rotated back into AI trades once bond-market pressure eased. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to roughly 4.93%, while crude slid on reports that Saudi Arabia could route additional supply to market through alternative export channels. The dollar softened modestly against major peers, tracking the move in yields. US Initial jobless claims fell to 196,000 against expectations of 206,000, and continuing claims dropped to 1.73 million — the lowest since January 2024 — pointing to limited layoffs and a labour market resilient enough to give the Fed room to stay focused on inflation. At the Tata Sons board meeting on September 17, 2026, the board voted by majority to reappoint N. Chandrasekaran as Executive Chairman for a fresh five-year term, reversing his August decision to step down. The board also moved to comply with RBI guidelines regarding a public listing, triggering an immediate clash with Tata Trusts, which called the reappointment "illegal". The rupee endured a whipsaw session, initially buckling under a hawkish Fed and softer Asian FX sentiment. Those early losses, however, proved short-lived as the central bank stepped in with forceful defence, pulling the currency off for marginal gains of 3 paise and closing at 95.93. Nifty closed higher for the second consecutive session, gaining 53 points to finish at 23,270 yesterday. Immediate resistance now lies at 23,360, with a stronger positional resistance near 23,600. On the downside, the 23,070–23,100 band remains the key support zone. Indian markets are set for a flat open amid a lack of clear global cues.