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AI can hand you a confident, polished answer in seconds. So can a stock screener. But a number without context can lead you exactly where you don't want to go.  In Episode 63, Greg walks through what happened when we ran our McDonald's ($MCD) report through an AI model. It flagged a drop in return on invested capital as a sign of trouble. We saw a 12% return during a year the economy shut down and called it a win. Same number, opposite conclusions. The difference was knowing what drove it.   The same trap shows up in dividend screens. General Mills ($GIS), Campbell's ($CPB), Kraft Heinz ($KHC), Smucker's ($SJM), and Conagra ($CAG) all offer attractive yields, yet most of them lost money over a decade when the S&P 500 gained more than 300%. Look underneath and the story is clear: weak returns on capital and a habit of overpaying for growth. Verizon ($VZ) and AT&T ($T) tell a similar story, while Xcel Energy ($XEL) flips it, with low returns today but a real catalyst ahead.  We close with David Booth's book Stay Calm and its first rule: follow the science. Whether it comes from AI, a screener, or a headline, don't trust a number you can't explain.  TOPICS COVERED [00:41] Introduction [03:11] AI critiques our McDonald's ($MCD) report. [07:59] Trust but verify: the limits of AI in investing [11:34] Listener question: Are dividend opportunities fading? [15:12] Food stocks: big yields, poor returns ($GIS, $CPB, $KHC, $SJM, $CAG) [18:54] Verizon ($VZ), AT&T ($T), and Xcel Energy ($XEL) [22:40] Turnarounds, value traps, and Nvidia ($NVDA) [26:38] Book review: Stay Calm by David Booth [30:32] How we're staying invested without overpaying [31:38] Final takeaway: don't let AI drive you off a cliff   ________   📖 Free Book: Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth  Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here.  📰 Monthly Newsletter: Observations on the Market  📧 Questions or comments: [email protected]  Send us Fan Mail ________  Resources: 📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management 📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models  ________ If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show. Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X ________  Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.

This morning, a small kitchen-and-bath supplier nobody's ever heard of went up 200% before lunch. By the afternoon, it was already sliding back down. Meanwhile, one of the most boring yet beloved businesses in America just got cheaper than it's been in five years. In today’s market, it's easy to miss which one is the actual opportunity.  This month, Greg starts with FGI Industries ($FGI), a $9 million company that briefly saw a day's worth of trading change hands worth $1.5 billion. He walks through how a thin float and a wave of momentum trading turned an unremarkable quarter into a day trader's dream. He also gets into why chasing the inevitable crash back down, especially by shorting it, can be far riskier than it looks. It's a story with zero connection to cash flow.  From there, he makes the case that all assets and investments are built on cash flow, which sets the stage for a deep dive on the McDonald’s ($MCD) story. It's not a hamburger story. It's a royalty and rent story, with 95% of restaurants franchised, over 60% of revenue recurring, and returns on invested capital that have sat in the high teens since 2009. Greg breaks down the 10-year dividend model, why the stock is about as cheap as it's been in half a decade, and what would actually have to go wrong for the thesis to break.  Two companies, two completely different definitions of opportunity. One's a lottery ticket. The other's a cash flow machine that's been quietly compounding for decades.    TOPICS COVERED [00:41] Introduction: flash money vs. slow and steady [03:31] FGI Industries ($FGI): how a small-cap stock spiked 200% in a morning [09:36] The hidden danger of shorting a low-float speculative stock [13:03] Dividend yields are falling — is the strategy still viable? [17:16] Why every asset ultimately depends on cash flow [20:32] Introducing McDonald's ($MCD): not the story you think it is [21:53] Franchise economics: royalties, rent, and McDonald's scale advantage [30:39] Return on invested capital and 20 years of consistent dividend growth [32:21] The 10-year dividend model: mapping out a potential double [34:45] What could go wrong: GLP-1 drugs, shifting habits, rising input costs [41:04] Valuation today and where we would start buying [43:20] Final takeaway: discipline beats the illusion of easy money  ________   📖 Free Book: Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth  Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here.  📰 Monthly Newsletter: Observations on the Market  📧 Questions or comments: [email protected]  Send us Fan Mail ________  Resources: 📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management 📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models  ________ If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show. Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X ________  Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.

A century-old tech company just took a gut punch from Wall Street. A century-old oil giant hasn't had an exciting headline in years. Ten years from now, which one do you actually want to own? In this episode, Greg takes the long view on two very different dividend payers. The first is IBM ($IBM), a stock that ran from the low $200s to a high near $325 over the past year as its quantum computing story caught fire. It then dropped back to around $205 after disappointing contract delays spooked the market. Greg walks through why the selloff isn't the end of the story: IBM's debt has improved, revenue is growing again after years of stagnation, and at roughly 17 times earnings, he argues investors are no longer paying for the quantum computing option. The second is Chevron ($CVX), a stock with none of IBM's drama and, in Greg's view, almost all of the certainty. Diversified across exploration, refining, and chemicals, with a dividend track record that held even when oil prices went negative in 2020, Chevron represents a different kind of long-term bet. It's not a call option on a breakthrough, but a compounding cash flow machine that is also a quiet beneficiary of AI. Two very different companies, one shared idea: real wealth is built by holding through the boring years, not by chasing the exciting ones. TOPICS COVERED [00:41] Introduction: Two Long-Term Stories, Two Different Bets  [03:04] IBM ($IBM): From Story Stock to Speed Bump  [04:47] Inside IBM's Business: Software, Consulting, and Red Hat  [08:41] The Quantum Computing Bet Behind the Stock  [13:44] IBM's 10-Year Dividend Growth Math  [16:24] Chevron ($CVX): The Cash Flow Machine  [18:17] Chevron's Dividend Track Record and Financial Strength  [20:40] Diversification: Upstream, Downstream, and Chemicals  [21:15] Chevron as a Natural Gas and AI Play  [23:49] Why Chevron Over Exxon ($XOM)?  [25:45] Two Long Views, One Lesson in Patience  [28:02] Final Takeaway: It's All About the Waiting   ________  📖 Free Book: Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth  Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here.  📰 Monthly Newsletter: Observations on the Market  📧 Questions or comments: [email protected] Send us Fan Mail ________  Resources: 📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management 📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models  ________ If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show. Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X ________  Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.

The news says the market is down, up, sideways... but which market? The Dow, the S&P 500, SCHD, gold, real estate—on any given day, they're all doing something different. If you don't know which market is actually yours, sooner or later, one of the others will seduce you into a move you'll regret. In Episode 60, Greg takes on a question that sounds almost too simple: What is the market? Using six real-world examples—from dividend ETFs to Denver office towers to SpaceX ($SPCX)—he shows how dramatically different markets can move in completely opposite directions at the same time and why investors who haven't clearly defined their market tend to react to the wrong signals at the worst possible moments. The clearest example is SCHD, Schwab's dividend ETF. From 2022 through 2025, it lagged the S&P 500 by a wide margin in three of four years—enough to break most investors. Then 2026 hits: SCHD is up nearly 20%, and the S&P is under 9%. The investors who stayed were right all along. They just had to get comfortable with 3 years of underperformance to realize the benefit. Greg explains why that gap—between being right and feeling right—is where a lot of investors lose focus. The same pattern runs through two 29-story office towers in downtown Denver that sold for $5 million total, while the equivalent square footage five miles away in Cherry Creek would fetch over $63 million. Or Microsoft ($MSFT), which swung from $550 to $355 to $460 to $390 in a single year while its dividend grew at 10% annually without interruption. Price and value are not the same thing—and once you know which market you're actually in, the noise from every other market gets a lot easier to ignore.  All kinds of “markets” can work. The investors who build wealth aren't necessarily picking the best one; they're staying committed to the one that works for them.   Topics Covered:  [00:11] Introduction & 5th Year Anniversary  [03:06] What Is "The Market"? Defining the Question  [06:04] SCHD vs. S&P 500: Four Years, Two Very Different Outcomes  [10:00] The Three Tiers of Dividend Investing  [12:53] Denver Real Estate: Same City, Two Different Markets  [19:28] Gold: A Market With Its Own Rules  [21:35] SpaceX: When Valuation Defies Convention  [24:19] Microsoft ($MSFT): Price vs. Value in Real Time  [27:30] Takeaway: Pick Your Battles, Win the War  [31:34] Close: Get on the Line and Stay on the Line (GDP Eventually Goes Up) ________  📖 Free Book: Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth  Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here.  📰 Monthly Newsletter: Observations on the Market  📧 Questions or comments: [email protected] Send us Fan Mail ________  Resources: 📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management 📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models  ________ If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show. Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X ________  Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.

Everyone's talking about what AI is going to disrupt. The question most investors aren't asking: What happens after that disruption, and who actually wins? The obvious answer and the right answer are rarely the same thing.  In this episode, Greg introduces a framework he first encountered through Howard Marks: first-level vs. second-level thinking. First-level thinking reacts to what's in front of you. Second-level thinking follows the chain of consequences and the ripple effects most people ignore. In an era where AI can reshape an industry in months, the gap between those two ways of thinking has never been more costly to ignore. From there, Greg walks through real portfolio positions—Intel (INTC) and Accenture (ACN)—to show how second-level thinking plays out in practice. He also runs through a handful of names—Union Pacific (UNP), UPS (UPS), GE Vernova (GEV), Chevron (CVX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), General Dynamics (GD), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Merck (MRK)—to illustrate which kinds of businesses AI threatens, which ones it quietly strengthens, and why some of the most "boring" dividend stocks may be the most defensible investments of the next decade. The core argument: brands, software, and moats built on perception are vulnerable. Logistics, infrastructure, and physical production are not, and AI may actually make them stronger. Topics Covered: [00:41] Introduction & why AI matters for dividend investors  [04:47] First-level vs. second-level thinking — the Howard Marks framework  [08:43] AI is accelerating disruption — and may be technology's own worst enemy  [11:21] Are strong brands and moats as durable as we thought?  [13:50] Why physical infrastructure may be the best AI defense  [15:19] Intel ($INTC) — patience, conviction, and the US chip story  [18:16] Accenture ($ACN) — the market's fear may be first-level thinking  [22:21] Union Pacific ($UNP), UPS ($UPS) — logistics AI can't replace  [24:27] Rapid-fire second-level takes: GEV, CVX, LMT, GD, JNJ, MRK  [28:08] Final takeaway: the game has changed, sustainable dividend growth requires a new lens  ________ Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth  Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here.  Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing.  Send us Fan Mail ________  Resources: 📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management 📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models  ________ If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show. Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X ________  Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.

Real estate investors don't think of themselves as dividend investors. Neither do venture capitalists or business owners collecting profit distributions. But strip away the labels, and every one of them is doing the same thing: buying a stream of income and betting it grows. The wrapper is different. The logic is identical. To prove it, Greg walks through three real investments, all made in 2013, with the same $535 million starting point: Republic Plaza (one of Denver’s premier office towers), Sysco ($SYY), and DCM’s own Model Portfolio. In year one, the building won on income. Today, thirteen years later, it's generating the least of the three, and the building itself has lost nearly half its value. The model portfolio, which started with the lowest income, now generates the most. The difference wasn't asset class. It was whether the income grew. That compounding gap is what Greg calls the "second decade effect"—the point where a growing income stream laps a higher but stagnant one. It's also why income focus gives investors something price-chasing never can: control, predictability, and a reason to stay put when markets get uncomfortable.   Topics Covered: [00:00] Introduction & the "income mailbox" reframe [01:34] Why the word "dividend" misleads investors [04:26] The foundation: every investment is a bet on cash flow [06:09] Three investments, same $535 million starting point, 2013 [09:17] Thirteen years later: how each one performed [13:59] The "second decade effect" — why growing income wins over time [17:48] Two mindsets: growing income vs. speculating on price [20:11] What the NYSE closing bell taught Greg about how investors think [24:38] Dividends vs. buybacks: why income creates capital discipline [28:42] Three takeaways and final thoughts ________  Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth  Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here.  Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing.  ________  Send us Fan Mail ________  Resources: 📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management 📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models  ________ If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show. Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X ________  Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.

Sysco ($SYY) just announced the acquisition of Restaurant Depot in a $29 billion deal — and the market didn't like it. The stock fell more than $10 in a single day, briefly dipping below $70.  Did this deal break the dividend growth story… or create a rare opportunity for long-term investors?  Most acquisitions destroy shareholder value, but this one is more complicated. The deal expands Sysco's revenue base by roughly 20%, targets a complementary customer segment, and appears reasonably priced on a free cash flow basis. But it also introduces meaningful risks—rising debt, pressure on credit quality, and a near-term dividend growth story that looks very different from what it did a week ago.  Greg walks through the numbers, the strategic rationale, and the trade-offs investors need to consider. More importantly, he tackles the core dilemma: how do you balance dividend growth discipline with total return potential when a high-quality business enters a gray area?  Topics Covered: [00:00:41] Overview of Sysco’s $29B acquisition [00:02:13] Restaurant Depot’s niche and why the deal could work [00:05:24] Valuation breakdown: Did Sysco overpay or get a fair deal? [00:07:45] Debt impact, interest costs, and credit rating risks [00:11:11] Deleveraging plan and what it means for financial flexibility [00:12:18] Dividend outlook: Why growth may stall in the near term [00:14:24] Valuation opportunity, execution track record, and upside potential [00:15:26] The core dilemma: balancing dividend growth vs total return ________  Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth  Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here.  Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing.  Send us Fan Mail ________  Resources: 📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management 📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models  ________ If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show. Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X ________  Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.

Markets feel uncertain. Headlines are driving sentiment. Oil prices are volatile, and cracks are forming in private credit, making high yield look more attractive than ever. But is that yield actually protecting you, or pulling you into risk? In this episode, Greg looks at three real-world examples to examine how income behaves under pressure and what that reveals about portfolio stability.  We break down private credit and the hidden risks behind high yields and limited liquidity, evaluate Campbell’s ($CPB) and whether its elevated dividend is sustainable amid weakening fundamentals, and revisit Chevron ($CVX) as a case study in durable, growing income during oil market volatility. Along the way, we explore why rising yield can be a warning sign, how cash flow drives long-term returns, and what separates sustainable dividend growth from income traps. Because when volatility rises, the goal isn’t to predict the next move. It’s to stay anchored. Topics Covered [00:11] Introduction [03:31] Market Volatility & Investor Sentiment  [04:47] Private Credit Risks & High Yield Illusion  [11:04] Campbell’s ($CPB): High-Yield Warning Signs  [17:17] Chevron ($CVX): Dividend Stability in Oil Volatility  [26:38] Berkshire Hathaway: Reminder on the Importance of Cash Flow  [29:11] The Dividend Anchor & Final Takeaways ________  Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth  Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here.  Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing.  Send us Fan Mail ________  Resources: 📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management 📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models  ________ If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show. Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X ________  Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.

Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth  Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here.  Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing.  ________  After a year of lagging the S&P 500, dividend investors are finally playing catch-up. Income is growing. Prices are rising. Total returns are improving. But success brings a new challenge: what happens when valuations rise, yields fall, and future returns get harder to find? In this episode, Greg explores the hidden downside of success in dividend growth investing. With dividend stocks outperforming early in 2026 and capital rotating out of growth and AI, he explains why rising prices create a new challenge: redeploying capital without sacrificing long-term returns. He revisits income growth vs. total return, explains why cash flow acts as the anchor in volatile markets, and walks through why sometimes the best move is to do nothing. He also contrasts chasing yield with sustainable compounding, including why shifting into Treasuries for higher income can miss the bigger picture. The second half of the episode moves into real portfolio examples—showing what “sell,” “hold,” and “buy” look like in practice: Why Emerson Electric ($EMR) no longer fits the model What Clorox’s ($CLX) acquisition strategy could mean for dividend growth How Hershey ($HSY) shows patience through commodity cycles Why Accenture ($ACN) represents a redeployment opportunity Long-term success isn’t about chasing what’s working today. It’s about discipline, letting income compound, and trusting that if cash flow grows, prices follow. Topics Covered:   [00:11] Introduction [03:45] Income growth vs. total return investing [07:24] Why dividend income is the anchor [09:52] Valuation risk and redeployment challenges [10:22] Buffett, patience, and portfolio discipline [11:38] Treasuries vs. dividend stocks: yield vs. growth [13:03] Cash flow as the North Star [15:26] Emerson Electric ($EMR): selling a winner [20:03] Clorox ($CLX): acquisition risk and dividend sustainability [27:40] Hershey ($HSY): commodity cycles and patience [32:03] Accenture ($ACN): dividend growth opportunity [35:11] Redeploying capital in rising markets [36:07] Final takeaway: consistency and long-term compounding     Send us Fan Mail ________  Resources: 📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management 📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models  ________ If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show. Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X ________  Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.

Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth  Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. Markets get noisy. Numbers get confusing. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here.  Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing.  ________  If you could only look at one number to judge whether a dividend can keep growing for decades, what would it be? In this episode, we strip investing back to first principles. Greg talks about why investors get overwhelmed with data and how focusing on the wrong metrics can quietly lead you off track. Using a simple hot dog stand analogy, he explains why familiar numbers like return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) can distort reality, especially when leverage enters the picture. From there, he introduces return on invested capital (ROIC) and shows why it does a better job connecting business quality to long-term dividend growth. Later, Greg addresses what ROIC can’t tell you and why context always matters.  Along the way, he walks through real-world examples, including Kraft Heinz ($KHC), Southern Company ($SO), Williams-Sonoma ($WSM), and Microsoft ($MSFT), to show how capital allocation decisions compound over time.  [00:11] Introduction [02:50] Information overload and the danger of focusing on the wrong numbers [04:40] The hot dog stand: ROA vs. ROE and the role of leverage [08:15] Why both ROA and ROE can mislead dividend investors [09:35] Return on invested capital (ROIC) explained in plain English [13:30] ROIC, cost of capital, and long-term value creation [14:55] Case study: Kraft Heinz and why high yield can be a trap [18:30] Case study: Southern Company and when low returns still “work” [22:10] Case study: Williams-Sonoma and disciplined capital allocation [24:55] Case study: Microsoft and the power of long-term compounding [29:10] The limits of ROIC and why incremental returns matter [31:25] Final takeaway: one number, long time horizons, evolving businesses Send us Fan Mail ________  Resources: 📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management 📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models  ________ If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show. Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X ________  Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.

📘Free Short Book: Dividend Growth, the Quiet Engine of Wealth  If today’s market feels noisy, this short book lays out a calmer framework.  Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth explains the same principles discussed in this episode—discipline, compounding, sustainable income growth, and staying focused when markets distract.  It’s a quick read (about 90 minutes) and walks through how dividend growth works across full market cycles, including bull and bear markets.  👉 Download the free eBook:  growmydollar.com/dividend-growth-book  Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing.  ________  Dividend growth investing can feel uncomfortable when a handful of growth stocks dominate headlines and performance. When value lags and momentum strategies seem unstoppable, it’s easy to wonder whether patience and discipline still make sense.  To round out 2025, Greg steps back from the noise to revisit foundational principles of dividend growth investing and explain why they remain intact, even in today’s market. He walks through why distraction is one of the biggest risks investors face, how compounding quietly does the heavy lifting, and why tying income growth to long-term economic growth creates a durable framework that doesn’t depend on short-term cycles  From the “Vitamin C” concept to classic compounding examples like the penny story and the Rule of 72, this episode reinforces how small, consistent decisions compound into meaningful income over time. Greg also revisits dividend growth targets, yield “sweet spots,” and the practical levers investors can pull to sustain income growth. The episode culminates in a real-world look at the model portfolio, which has been running since 2010.  From all of us here at The Dividend Mailbox®, Happy Holidays! Topics covered:  00:00 – Introduction and why this is a good time to revisit first principles  01:10 – Market distractions, information overload, and staying focused  03:20 – Introducing the new book: Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth  04:20 – The “Vitamin C” concept and daily discipline  05:40 – The penny story and how compounding really works  09:40 – The Rule of 72 and the long-term cost of short-term decisions  11:10 – “The line”: GDP growth, earnings growth, and dividend growth  14:30 – Targeting 7% dividend income growth  16:30 – The 2–4% dividend yield sweet spot  17:55 – Income growth levers: reinvesting, reallocating, and dividend increases  20:40 – The Model Portfolio story and track record 26:40 – Final thoughts on discipline, sustainability, and staying the course  Have questions or want a second opinion on your dividend strategy? Email us anytime at [email protected] for a free portfolio review and ongoing dividend insights.  Send us Fan Mail ________  Resources: 📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management 📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models  ________ If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show. Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X ________  Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.

How strong is your dividend growth portfolio? Send it to us for a free evaluation at [email protected]. Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing. ________ Consumer staples look reliable with strong brands, steady cash flow, and good yields. But dividends can’t outrun revenue forever, and across this sector the growth engine has stalled. In this episode, Greg begins with a quick recap of how 2025 has unfolded so far, highlighting strong income growth for the model portfolio, a handful of growth names driving market performance, and value strategies continuing to lag. From that backdrop, he digs into the disconnect between the appearance of safety in consumer staples and the underlying fundamentals that truly support dividend growth.  Using Kimberly-Clark ($KMB), General Mills ($GIS), Colgate ($CL), Procter & Gamble ($PG), and Church & Dwight ($CHD) as case studies, Greg shows how companies with high ROIC and defensive business models can still become no-growth traps. These companies were once consistent outperformers with impressive dividend histories, but the economy evolves and so have their growth profiles.   Topics Covered: 03:05 – Comparing dividend growth to the S&P 500 05:43 – Investing styles cycle and chasing rarely works 07:07 – Surface numbers can be misleading 11:00 – Kimberly-Clark: attractive metrics masking zero growth 16:42 – General Mills: high yield but barely growing 18:36 – Colgate: excellent margins, slow dividend progression 19:58 – Procter & Gamble: financial strength, but limited growth 21:03 – Church & Dwight: a past outlier that doesn’t meet our targets 23:57 – Kimberly-Clark’s planned Kenvue acquisition 29:36 – The mosaic of evidence investors should pay attention to   Have questions or want a second opinion on your dividend strategy? Email us anytime at [email protected] for a free portfolio review and ongoing dividend insights. Send us Fan Mail ________  Resources: 📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management 📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models  ________ If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show. Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X ________  Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.

How strong is your dividend growth portfolio? Send it to us for a free evaluation at [email protected]. Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing. ________ Wall Street’s creativity knows no bounds, especially when it comes to selling safety or income. In this episode, Greg revisits Warren Buffett’s timeless wisdom to uncover who’s “swimming naked” in today’s market.  Drawing on Rob Arnott and Edward McQuarrie’s recent CFA research on risk and investor psychology, he explains how both fear of loss and fear of missing out drive market behavior far more than models admit. Greg dissects several headline-grabbing products, from “high income” S&P 500 ETFs and 77% yielding Nvidia options funds to the Dual Directional Buffer ETF and the “Magnificent Seven Snowball,” revealing how they offer the illusion of safety or income while eroding long-term returns. He closes with a Buffett-style case study on Occidental Petroleum and Berkshire Hathaway’s recent deal, underscoring the power of simple, steady cash flow over engineered complexity. As Leonardo da Vinci said, “Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication,” and it is also one of the surest ways to compound wealth.   Topics Covered [00:00:41] – Who’s swimming naked? The illusion of risk-free returns  [00:02:31] – Understanding risk and fear in markets: Rob Arnott’s research  [00:06:22] – How fear of loss and FOMO distort risk premiums  [00:09:19] – The rise of high-income ETFs: chasing yield in disguise  [00:12:32] – The Nvidia ($NVDA) income strategy ETF: 77% yield, but at what cost?  [00:16:09] – Dual Directional Buffer ETF: the illusion of protection  [00:21:14] – The “Mag 7 Snowball” structured note: Wall Street’s creative packaging  [00:25:47] – Why these structures guarantee Wall Street wins  [00:26:45] – Buffett, Occidental ($OXY), and the value of consistent cash flow  [00:32:20] – Simplicity, cash flow, and the sophistication of staying patient   For more on dividend growth investing or to request a free portfolio review, email [email protected].  Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Send us Fan Mail ________  Resources: 📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management 📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models  ________ If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show. Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X ________  Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.

How strong is your dividend growth portfolio? Send it to us for a free evaluation at [email protected]. Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing. ________ When a stock’s price is falling, its yield is sky-high, and there’s plenty of doubt, it looks like a classic value trap. Does it ever make sense for dividend growth investors to walk into that trap? Sometimes, what’s under the hood tells a very different story. In Episode 51, Greg revisits UPS ($UPS), a company we last covered years ago but is now back on our radar for entirely new reasons. Rising wages, Amazon contract changes, and global trade tariffs have cut the stock price in half since 2022, sending its dividend yield toward 8%. At first glance, it looks like the market is pricing it for a dividend cut. But step behind the headlines, and the story gets more compelling: UPS continues to post solid margins, generates strong cash flow, and has the scale and efficiency to remain a leader in global logistics. Even if a dividend cut occurs, investors may still come out ahead with sustainable yields and renewed dividend growth potential. Greg breaks down the scenarios, risks, and catalysts that make UPS a compelling story to consider. Topics Covered:  [00:03:32] Why UPS looks like a high-yield “problem child” but may still be a dividend growth play[00:06:20] UPS’s history: growth in revenue, profits, and dividends since 1999[00:09:58] The “trifecta” of headwinds—union wage hikes, Amazon contract cuts, and tariffs[00:12:36] Comparing UPS vs. FedEx ($FDX), Amazon ($AMZN), USPS, and DHL in market share and profitability[00:19:57] How AI could improve delivery efficiency[00:21:12] Business metrics, profitability, debt profile, and why UPS’s financing signals investor confidence[00:25:27] The dividend dilemma: can UPS sustain its payout, or is a cut coming?[00:27:44] Three scenarios: steady dividend, improved valuation, or a cut that resets growth[00:31:47] Long-term catalysts: tariffs, Amazon shifts, and global trade recovery[00:33:37] What research firms (Morningstar, Value Line) are projecting for UPS[00:34:56] Final take: UPS as a value play that still pays you to wait Send us Fan Mail ________  Resources: 📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management 📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models  ________ If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show. Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X ________  Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.

How strong is your dividend growth portfolio? Send it to us for a free evaluation at [email protected]. Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing. Dividend investing isn’t about settling for slow growth. To grow your income, you need to own growing companies, and the real wins come when you find them at a discount. The trick is seeing past the headlines and recognizing value even in businesses the market assumes are at risk of disruption.  In this milestone 50th episode, Greg kicks things off with a Wall Street Journal investor quiz that highlights the timeless power of compounding. From there, the focus shifts to Accenture ($ACN), the world’s largest consulting firm. Despite short-term headwinds from government budget cuts and fears of AI disruption, Accenture’s strong balance sheet, growing dividend, and unique position in the consulting landscape make it a compelling candidate for long-term dividend growth investors. Greg breaks down the numbers, the risks, and the upside scenario if Accenture turns AI into an accelerant for its business model.  Topics Covered:   03:13 – The century-long compounding lesson: Coca-Cola, Nvidia, Altria, and Apple  05:15 – Berkshire Hathaway’s glitch and 60 years of outperformance  07:26 – Introducing Accenture ($ACN): A long-held but renewed idea  08:48 – Why the stock has fallen from $400 to the mid-$200s  10:39 – AI disruption fears: risk or opportunity?  11:33 – Morningstar and Value Line’s perspectives on Accenture  14:34 – Historical dividend, earnings, and revenue track record  16:25 – Margins, balance sheet strength, and net debt position  19:03 – Return on invested capital: consistent discipline over decades  20:08 – Acquisition strategy: why Accenture has succeeded where others fail  21:59 – Conservative debt issuance and bond market confidence  24:56 – Profitability metrics: margins remain steady through cycles  26:14 – Accounts receivable and customer credit strength  27:41 – Why the federal contract risk looks like a buying opportunity  28:10 – The 10-year dividend model and forward growth scenarios  30:01 – Potential upside if AI becomes a growth driver  31:45 – Valuation: PE, price-to-sales, and free cash flow yield at decade lows  32:48 – Risks: client concentration, acquisitions, regulation, and AI disruption  34:04 – Final thoughts   📩  Want your dividend portfolio reviewed? Email a list of your holdings (no dollar amounts necessary) to [email protected].   We’ll rate it from 1 to 5 and include a few helpful bullet points to show how well you're aligned with long-term dividend growth principles.  Send us Fan Mail ________  Resources: 📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management 📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models  ________ If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show. Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X ________  Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.