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A week of conflicting signals leaves us with more questions. We stand by our PMIs, which point to broad-based accelerating global strength at the start of 4Q. We also are impressed by the extra dose of US income, which was revised up alongside a stronger 2Q GDP outturn. However, the disappointing September payrolls number challenges a key feature of our outlook: the need for jobs to provide more support in extending the expansion. If nothing else, the tension in the data pushes off the need for immediate October rate hikes.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research   This podcast was recorded on 2 October 2026.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Greg Fuzesi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss another volatile week with a special focus on France.    This podcast was recorded on 02 October 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Abiel Reinhart to discuss the latest global inflation developments and the path ahead. Global inflation momentum is rebounding led by a renewed rise in consumer energy inflation and an acceleration in core goods inflation, both of which likely have further to run. While moderating service inflation has kept core inflation stable at 2.7%oya, a rotation towards firmer core goods inflation, and early signs that services disinflation may now be running out of steam, point to upside risks to the outlook, particularly if energy prices remain high for longer.   This podcast was recorded on Oct 01, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5458931-0  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5453331-0  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5469568-0  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5446625-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The news continues to point to broad and strong global growth momentum. It is thus no surprise that markets and central banks are increasingly expecting a higher path of rates. What is not expected is a strong growth dynamic that forces central banks to deliver a rate path that weakens growth, an outcome we believe is reasonable with labor markets poised to tighten.     Speakers: Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research   This podcast was recorded on 25 September 2026.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks discuss another hawkishly eventful week.   This podcast was recorded on September 24, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The week bolstered the shift toward higher rates, with the Fed joining the hiking cycle and signaling more to come. While domestic conditions are playing their usual role, there are also plenty of global factors at work—potentially leading to a larger and more synchronized global hiking cycle than currently expected. This is being reinforced by a strengthening cyclical uplift, although this modal view faces two-sided risks.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research   This podcast was recorded on 18 September 2026.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks discuss the hawkish shift that Western European central banks are progressively making.    This podcast was recorded on Sept 18, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The tide on central bank tightening has turned and we see the September hikes from the ECB, Fed, and BoJ as the start of a broad tightening cycle.    Speakers: Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research   This podcast was recorded on 11 September 2026.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks discuss this week’s hawkish ECB and next week’s (potentially) hawkish BoE.   This podcast was recorded on Sept 11, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Today’s employment report aligned labor demand more closely with the positive cyclical dynamics seen in both US and global activity this quarter. While there remains a concern about geopolitics and energy markets, our focus of concern is shifting to the interaction of more credit-dependent business spending and central bank tightening.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research   This podcast was recorded on 4 September 2026.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Greg Fuzesi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss the latest news on growth and inflation, and preview next week’s ECB policy meeting.    This podcast was recorded on 04 September 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global headline inflation cooled in July but is set to reaccelerate in August as higher energy prices reverse the recent decline. Food inflation has remained remarkably subdued, though rising pipeline pressures suggest a gradual pickup into year-end. Core inflation remains sticky at 2.7%oya, but a rotation is taking hold, with easing services inflation increasingly offset by firmer goods price inflation. We expect this dynamic to keep global inflation close to 3% and reinforce the case for further central bank tightening. Against this backdrop, next week’s US CPI report will be closely watched ahead of this month’s FOMC decision.   Speakers Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economist Abiel Reinhart, US Economist Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Euro Area Economist   This podcast was recorded on Sept 3rd, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5421842-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5406573-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5432155-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5381881-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

In this episode, Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, Fatih Akcelik, and Khamza Sharifzoda examine the diverging inflation trajectories of Türkiye, where disinflation has stalled but not been derailed, and Kazakhstan, where the pace of disinflation has slowed. The discussion explores the underlying forces shaping inflation dynamics in both economies, the respective roles of monetary and fiscal policy, and the critical influence of inflation expectations. The speakers further consider the outlook for each central bank as policymakers assess the appropriate pace of monetary easing in the period ahead.   This podcast was recorded on 01 September 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5432113-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5346481-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5165446-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5390753-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

While the soft July data made us a little nervous, the August data is rebuilding confidence in a cyclical lift. As the business cycle regains its swagger, the odds of hikes will shift back up. More structural forces are also lifting yields, as both neutral rates and term premia are adding to longer-term borrowing costs. The downside depends on how current asset prices are a function of lower borrowing costs. There will be little to echo from the Grand Tetons around Jackson Hole.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 21 August 2026.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Greg Fuzesi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss the positive growth signals out of Western Europe and whether that will push the more reluctant central banks to hike.    This podcast was recorded on 21 August 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.