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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more.VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Le Shrub on Twitter https://twitter.com/agnostoxxx Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:33) Shrub's Background In Shorting Credit During Great Financial Crisis (05:28) Short Credit Spreads Trade (08:43) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (12:14) The Challenges of Shorting An Index (15:26) Have We Seen "Max Stupid" Yet? (23:58) VanEck Ad (21:08) Shrub's Short-Term Call That Stocks Will Correct Mildly (25:33) Why Shrub Thinks Stocks End Up On the Year (28:51) This Is Not 2000, This Is Not 2021, Argues Shrub (34:25) Shrub's Investing Approach: Value, Thematic, Coal, and Digimarc (40:40) Tesla and Google (51:02) Treasury Secretary Yellen Tamagotchi (52:12) Two Types of Inflation: Wealthflation and Plebflation (55:44) How Much Does Market Plumbing Matter? (01:01:29) Is U.S. Treasury Sterilizing QT? (01:07:05) Economic Outlook in U.S. And Europe (01:09:42) How Systemic Are Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Issues? (01:14:48) Banking & CLO Systems (01:17:57) Views on Fed's Interest Rate Policy __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:15) Background in Relative Value Credit (02:25) Potential Trouble At Deutsche Pfandbrief Bank (15:03) VanEck Ad (15:45) Liability Structure of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank (18:42) The Pfandbrief Market (Different Than Bank Known As "Deutsche Pfandbrief" AKA "PBB") (21:56) Negative Marginal Net Interest Margin Is A Big Problem (23:54) Why Josef Does Not Have A Trade On PBB - Insufficient Liquidity In Options Market (25:23) Bail-in-ability of AT1 Debt (29:59) How This Might Play Out (32:47) Comparison To Greek And Spanish Banks (35:06) Silver Lining: Long-Term Nature of Many of PBB's Liabilities (40:21) Deposit Insurance In Germany & Europe (43:05) How PBB Might (Possibly) Overcome The Challenges It Faces? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Patrick Saner, Head of Macro Strategy at Swiss Re, joins Forward Guidance to share his insights on the global economy, interest rates, and central bank policy. Filmed on February 16, 2024. Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Patrick Saner on Twitter: https://twitter.com/patrick_saner Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:40) U.S. Economy Appears Resilient (03:16) Financial Conditions And Neutral Rate (08:)54 Central Bank Balance Sheet Policy (QE & QT) (13:32) The Reaction Function Of The European Central Bank (ECB) Has Changed (17:44) VanEck Ad (18:28) Interpreting Ongoing Yield Curve Inversion (20:24) Patrick's Work At Swiss Re (23:24) Inflation Volatility (33:47) Currencies (35:46) European Economy (38:32) Two Consecutive Quarters Of No Growth Does Not Necessarily Indicate A Recession (40:55) Most Common Error In Macro: Mistaking Correlation For Causation (43:16) Soft Landing Is Patrick's Base Case (45:49) Patrick's Prior Work At Swiss National Bank __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Paul Sankey on Twitter https://twitter.com/crudegusher Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Paul Sankey research: https://sankeyresearch.com/ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:55) Oil Market At "Equilibrium" Right Now (08:51) “If It Wasn't For Saudi Production Cuts, Oil Would Be Below 60 Dollars, I'm Sure Of It” (13:03) U.S. Oil Production Has Exploded (18:25) VanEck ad (19:07) The Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) Cycle Has Begun In Oil (Diamondback-Endeavor Deal) (25:40) Importance Of Inventory Quality (And Quantity) (29:00) Management Issues (32:38) Buybacks and Dividends (35:50) Oil Companies With Strongest (And Weakest) Inventories (38:07) Merger Arb In Deals That Haven't Closed (44:43) How AI Will Impact Power Demand (50:55) About Sankey Research __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:57) The Small Cap Value Universe (06:58) Why Did The Value Factor Used To Work, And Why Isn't It Working Now? (11:27) How To Find Great Small Cap Value Stocks (14:45) Finding Asymmetric Opportunities (16:18) VanEck Ad (17:51) Ferroglobe PLC (20:50) ACV Auctions (24:52) I Despise Price / Sales Ratio (27:38) What Makes Some Investments Work, And Others Not Work? (31:17) Look At Managements' Incentives (40:54) Banking Stocks (43:06) Last Time Small Cap Value Stocks Were "All The Rage": Early 2000s (45:17) Has The Rise Of Passive Flows Distorted The Small Cap World? (51:13) Markets Are "Broadly Efficient": Some Value Stocks Are Cheap For A Reason (53:06) How to Avoid "Value Traps" (58:42) How To Generate Short Ideas (01:07:00) The Role of Macro (01:08:37) U.S. Economy Is "Pretty Strong," European Economy Is "In Shambles" (01:10:51) Calumet Specialty Products (01:13:33) Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:50) What Is Private Credit? (07:51) Private Credit Is Doing The Riskiest Deals In Leveraged Finance (16:04) How Will Private Credit Perform If Defaults Pick-Up? (Very Little Data In Previous Cycles Because The Asset Class Has Grown So Much) (19:24) Private Credit Is Very Illiquid (20:54) Debt Covenants In Private Credit Are, Admittedly, Usually Very Strong (26:31) VanEck Ad (27:14) Interplay Between Private Credit and Rest of Fixed Income Universe (32:35) Private Equity Is Using Private Credit To Pay Itself Via Dividend Recaps (35:13) Private Credit Is Refinancing Some Of The Riskiest Deals In Leveraged Loan Market, Which Perhaps May Be Bullish For Leveraged Loan (& High-Yield Bond) Market (38:00) Default Outlook In High-Yield Bond And Leveraged Loan Market (43:09) Moderately Bullish View On Duration (I.e. Rates) (58:43) Maturity Wall High-Yield Bond Is Very, Very Termed Out (01:02:56) Opportunities In Securitized Products Market Appear Interesting (01:04:57) Single Borrower Commercial Real Estate Loan Market Offers Interesting Opportunities To Fundamental Credit Investors (01:07:48) Most Common Investing Mistake In Credit: Herd Mentality __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Danny Dayan on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DannyDayan5 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) Recession Is An Overrated Risk (04:33) The Right-Tail Risk: Reaccelerating Inflation (16:18) Will Stocks Continue to Outperform Bonds If Inflation Reaccelerates? (21:25) VanEck Ad (22:13) What Is The Neutral Rate Of Interest? (29:22) Why Are Financial Conditions So Loose? (44:59) "If Economy Stays Hot, I Think There Will Be Zero Rate Cuts This Year" (47:22) Demographics Is Wildly Misunderstood (01:01:20) China (01:04:39) Duration Bubble of 2020 & 2021 Means Losses From Higher Rates Are Borne Not By Borrowers But By Lenders (01:06:19) Danny's Bull Case For The Dollar __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Martin Pelletier on Twitter https://twitter.com/MPelletierCIO Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Joseph’s latest on Cash-Futures Basis Trade: https://fedguy.com/levering-up/ Joseph’s latest on CBO: https://fedguy.com/sea-change/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (10:25) VanEck Ad (11:10) New York Community Bank $NYCB (15:34) The Canadian Banking System (22:05) Is Tech Forming A Stock Market Bubble? (33:15) Cash-Futures Basis Trade In Treasury Market (39:41) The Rise of Structured Products In Canada (56:40) Energy Market (01:03:00) Joseph's Views On Powell's 60 Minutes Interview (01:07:40) Bank of Canada Could Cut Interest Rates By More Than The Fed Does In 2024 __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Brian McCarthy on Twitter https://twitter.com/briangobosox Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps; (00:00) Introduction (00:35) The Chinese Financial System Is A Giant Ponzi Scheme (05:17) The Property Bubble In China Is Popping (It's Still In Early Stages) (11:21) How The Chinese Banking System Works: Window Guidance > Forward Guidance (27:02) VanEck Ad (37:52) Views On The Chinese Stock Market (38:12) The Chinese Yuan (RMB) Must Be Devalued In Order To Stimulate The Chinese Economy (47:11) U.S. China Trade Policy, Under President Biden and Under President Trump (52:03) Much Of China's Bank Equity Is "Going To Be Wiped Out" (57:32) Why Would Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Not Stimulate Its Economy And Avoid Major Slowdown? (01:04:25) McCarthy's Long-Term Thesis On China: "They Will Go The Japan Path" (01:11:37) China's FX Reserves (01:14:06) Why Can't China Reinflate The Property Bubble? (01:17:31) Closing Thoughts On China (01:19:46) Macro Implications Of China's Slowdown On Global Economy __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Citrini on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Citrini7 Citrini's Substack: https://www.citriniresearch.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:26) Citrini Lived Up To Jack's Nickname as "Hottest AI Stockpicker" (Here's The Proof) (17:21) VanEck Ad (18:04) Citrini's View on The Magnificent Seven (28:49) Fiscal Spending Not Set To Decline, Regardless Of Who Wins U.S. Presidential Election (30:49) Citrini's Basket Of Fiscal Beneficiaries (33:27) How Citrini Conducts His Research (45:07) Citrini's Risk Management (54:25) A Theme That Hasn't Worked: China __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. Dean Curnutt, founder and CEO of Macro Risk Advisors, joins Forward Guidance to share how the ongoing bull market has led to a bear market in volatility. Realized and implied vol has fallen sharply as the market has grinded higher, which has created some interesting opportunities to hedge risk. Curnutt notes that the correlation between stocks and bonds remains positive, which is worrisome for diversified investors. Curnutt is also the host of Alpha Exchange podcast. Filmed on January 25, 2024. __ Follow Dean Curnutt on Twitter https://twitter.com/Alpha_Ex_LLC Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:36) Preparing For Risk Off Events (16:13) VanEck Ad (20:09) Fed Rate Cuts In 2024 (25:49) Volatility (33:16) How Low Can The VIX Go? (42:27) Volatility Risk Premium (46:53) Credit Volatility (54:02) U.S Elections & Volatility Risk (01:03:43) What Is The Vol Structure Pricing In? (01:13:09) When To Buy Cheap Volatility? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

__ Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Jack, Joseph Wang, and Mike Ippolito break down the January Fed meeting. Recorded shortly after the Powell press conference on January 31, 2024. __ Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow John Comiskey on Twitter https://twitter.com/Johncomiskey77 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:41) Joseph's View on Jan FOMC: "This Was A Hawkish Fed Conference" (07:51) Joseph's View On Asset Prices (10:04) Joseph's View on Rates (20:52) Vaneck Ad (21:37) The Plumbing Of How The Government & Fed Prints Money (32:41) Treasury Issuance (QRA, Quarterly Refunding Announcement) (39:01) Joseph's View on Fed's Quantitative Tightening (QT): Taper Could Likely Begin In Q4 2024 (44:57) Fed's Plan For Discount Window & End Of Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) (49:31) Joseph Wang: Fiscal Deficits Will Likely Continue To Fuel Bull Market In Risk Assets (52:19) Concentration of Stock Market Rally (01:00:12) Jack Puts On Tin Foil Hat Re: Fed Language & New York Community Bank (NYCB) (01:02:44) Closing Thoughts: Plumbing People Are Not Always Bearish!! __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.