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The list of things that depend on transformers is long: new housing, EV chargers, renewable projects, and more. That’s why skyrocketing lead times and prices for grid equipment that raises or lowers voltage is a real problem. The wait for a new transformer has jumped to over two years, according to WoodMackenzie. Back in 2020 it took just a few months, according to Tim Mills, CEO at transformer manufacturer ERMCO. WoodMackenzie found that prices, meanwhile, have risen over 60% since 2020.  So what’s causing the shortage? In this episode, Shayle talks to Tim about how rising demand for transformers has pushed manufacturers to capacity – and why it’s been so hard for manufacturers to expand that capacity. They also cover topics like: The state of the shortage, including prices, lead times and types of transformers that are in especially short supply. The major drivers of demand growth, including renewables, storms, federal investment, and EV chargers. How the housing boom and bust of the 2000s left transformer manufacturers wary of bubbles in demand. Why the tight labor market makes it hard to expand manufacturing capacity. How new rules proposed by the Department of Energy are throwing uncertainty into what type of equipment manufacturers should invest in. Recommended resources: WoodMackenzie: Supply shortages and an inflexible market give rise to high power transformer lead times T&D World: No Easy Answers: Transformer Supply Crisis Deepens Catalyst is supported by Antenna Group. For 25 years, Antenna has partnered with leading clean-economy innovators to build their brands and accelerate business growth. If you’re a startup, investor, enterprise or innovation ecosystem that’s creating positive change, Antenna is ready to power your impact. Visit antennagroup.com to learn more. Catalyst is brought to you by Atmos Financial. Atmos is revolutionizing finance by leveraging your deposits to exclusively fund decarbonization solutions, like residential solar and electrification. FDIC-insured with market-leading savings rates, cash-back checking, and zero fees. Get an account in minutes at joinatmos.com.

It's been a year and a half since the Inflation Reduction Act was passed. In that time, we've seen $110 billion in planned investments for factories that are pumping out electric cars, batteries, solar modules, and wind towers.  The upper end of 2030 forecasts show nearly twice as much zero-carbon generation getting built compared with scenarios without the law in place. Much of this activity is the result of a new shift in the US tax code that allows wind, solar, storage, hydrogen, carbon capture, and manufacturing tax incentives to be sold for cash. It’s creating a lot more deal volume as many more companies can now buy those credits to support new development. “This very rarely happens that a new market forms basically overnight. The private estimates on how big the market gets get it to something like $80 or $100 billion dollars by the back half of the decade,” said Alfred Johnson, co-founder and CEO of Crux, speaking at Latitude Media’s Frontier Forum. In January, Crux closed an $18 million Series A round led by Andreesen Horowitz – bringing the company’s total funding to $27 million to scale its sustainable finance platform. It’s been about a year since credits started trading, with activity really picking up in the last six months. Much of our understanding of how the market is performing comes from new research from Crux, which recently surveyed 150 buyers, sellers, and intermediaries – and found a mix of eagerness, hesitance, surprises, and lots and lots of questions. Stephen Lacey spoke with Alfred Johnson live during Latitude's Frontier Forum to address many of those questions – and riff on how this new market is taking shape. You can watch the full conversation, including questions from the audience, here.

There was so much to talk about in Nat Bullard’s 200-page slide deck on 2024’s biggest decarbonization trends that we broke the conversation into two parts. For the first half of our conversation with Nat, listen here.  Nat has worked as an analyst and writer in climate tech for two decades and was BloombergNEF’s chief content officer until 2022. In this second part of the conversation, Shayle and Nat cover topics like: How ESG has become the new third rail of finance, falling out of the spotlight of corporate reports and the annual Larry letter  The vexing problem of what to do with curtailed power and why we need to design around the intermittency Whether you can have too many carbon certification standards How biodiesel is eating up Europe’s biofuel supply First Solar’s underappreciated success in surviving the decline of U.S. solar manufacturing Plus: Declining hydropower, slowing coal growth, and the rising hype around AI Recommended resources: Nathaniel Bullard: Decarbonization: Stocks and flows, abundance and scarcity, net zero Washington Post: ‘Greenhushing’: Why some companies quietly hide their climate pledges World Economic Forum: Hydropower: How droughts are affecting the world's biggest renewable energy source Catalyst is supported by Antenna Group. For 25 years, Antenna has partnered with leading clean-economy innovators to build their brands and accelerate business growth. If you’re a startup, investor, enterprise or innovation ecosystem that’s creating positive change, Antenna is ready to power your impact. Visit antennagroup.com to learn more. Catalyst is brought to you by Atmos Financial. Atmos is revolutionizing finance by leveraging your deposits to exclusively fund decarbonization solutions, like residential solar and electrification. FDIC-insured with market-leading savings rates, cash-back checking, and zero fees. Get an account in minutes at joinatmos.com.

We’re back for round two, with even more slides than last year. This year’s annual slide deck from Nat Bullard has 200 pages on the key trends shaping decarbonization in 2024. Nat has worked as an analyst and writer in climate tech for two decades and was BloombergNEF’s chief content officer until 2022. We’ve split the conversation into two parts. In this first part, Shayle and Nat cover topics like:  The state of batteries, including the rapid growth of LFP chemistries, the concentration of manufacturing capacity, and the wild ride of lithium prices. The rapid growth of transferable tax credits and how that unlocks capital for renewables. How the rising cost of capital has reshaped climate tech. Recommended resources: Nathaniel Bullard: Decarbonization: Stocks and flows, abundance and scarcity, net zero Latitude Media: Clean energy capital is getting pricier WSJ: Companies Are Snapping Up New Clean-Energy Tax Credits Catalyst is supported by Antenna Group. For 25 years, Antenna has partnered with leading clean-economy innovators to build their brands and accelerate business growth. If you’re a startup, investor, enterprise or innovation ecosystem that’s creating positive change, Antenna is ready to power your impact. Visit antennagroup.com to learn more. Catalyst is brought to you by Atmos Financial. Atmos is revolutionizing finance by leveraging your deposits to exclusively fund decarbonization solutions, like solar and electrification. Join in under 2 minutes at joinatmos.com/catalyst.

A recent slew negative headlines about U.S. EVs makes it feel like the sky is falling on the market. Yet the data show robust growth. Combined battery electric and plug-in hybrid sales in 2023 were up 50% from 2022. Meanwhile, EV market share reached 9.5% in 2023, up from 7.5% in 2022, according to BloombergNEF.  Still, there have been real signs of changing expectations. GM and Ford have downsized their EV ambitions. Hertz sold off 20,000 Teslas. And Elon Musk tried to temper expectations in last week’s disappointing Tesla earnings call.  So why all the conflicting indicators?  In this episode, Shayle talks to BloombergNEF analyst Corey Cantor. They talk about the changing outlook on the speed of EV adoption as the focus shifts from early adopters to the mass market. They talk through the persistent challenges EVs face, like slow charger rollout and lack of affordable price points. They also cover topics like: Whether sales challenges are more of an overall market problem or a legacy automaker problem Tesla’s dominant but falling share of the market and what was behind the Hertz sell-off Momentum behind insurgent Korean automakers Kia and Hyundai Whether the Chinese EV giant BYD will enter the U.S. market Recommended Resources: Inside EVs: Hyundai's Electric Vehicle Push Is Absolutely Working Bloomberg: EV-Charging Firms to Struggle With Finances, Investment in 2024 Catalyst is supported by Antenna Group. For 25 years, Antenna has partnered with leading clean-economy innovators to build their brands and accelerate business growth. If you’re a startup, investor, enterprise or innovation ecosystem that’s creating positive change, Antenna is ready to power your impact. Visit antennagroup.com to learn more. Catalyst is brought to you by Atmos Financial. Atmos is revolutionizing finance by leveraging your deposits to exclusively fund decarbonization solutions, like solar and electrification. Join in under 2 minutes at joinatmos.com/catalyst.

Agriculture in the U.S. produces more methane than the American oil and gas industry, and the biggest share of that agricultural methane is from enteric fermentation – essentially cow burps. Cows and other ruminant animals release methane because of the way they digest food. And as animal protein consumption rises, so will enteric emissions. It’s a problem for climate change, but also for farmers. Methane is wasted energy that could have been used for beef or dairy production – and so enteric methane production is a challenge that researchers have been trying to solve for years. Some promising solutions are starting to make it into practice. In this episode, Shayle talks to Charles Brooke, program manager for enteric methane at Spark Climate Solutions. Shayle and Charles cover topics like: Why most enteric methane comes from small-holder pasture-raised animals, instead of feed-lot-raised animals. The different solutions in the pipeline, such as better livestock management, feed additives, vaccines, and breeding. The challenges with feed additives that animals must eat everyday, like bromoform, Bovaer, and 3-NOP. How vaccines and breeding could shift global populations more permanently. The barriers to adoption, such as regulatory hurdles and public skepticism. Recommended Resources: Federation of American Scientists: Climate-Smart Cattle: US Research and Development Will Improve Animal Productivity, Address Greenhouse Gases, and Hasten Additional Market Solutions USAID: Endline Methane Assessment of KCDMS Dairy and Fodder Value Chain Activities in Kenya Food Climate Research Network: Grazed and Confused  American Society for Microbiology: The Role of microbes in Mediating Climate Change Environmental Defense Fund: Tackling Enteric Methane Catalyst is supported by Antenna Group. For 25 years, Antenna has partnered with leading clean-economy innovators to build their brands and accelerate business growth. If you’re a startup, investor, enterprise or innovation ecosystem that’s creating positive change, Antenna is ready to power your impact. Visit antennagroup.com to learn more.

Plants capture hundreds of gigatons of carbon every year in timber, crops, and other forms of biomass. Much of that carbon gets released back into the atmosphere through natural processes and human intervention. But there are a few ways that we can lock it away for good, like biochar, bio-oil, and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, or BECCS — all processes that fall under the umbrella of biomass carbon removal. The International Panel on Climate Change calls carbon removal “unavoidable” — and biomass is a leading carbon removal contender. But everyone wants a slice of the biomass pie. Airlines want it for jet fuel. Midwestern legislators want it for ethanol. Homebuilders want it for construction. Oh, and humans want it for food. By 2050 potential demand for biomass could far outstrip supply.  So what kinds of biomass should we use for carbon removal — and where should we get that biomass from? In this episode, Shayle talks with Dr. Bodie Cabiyo, senior forest scientist at climate science consultancy Carbon Direct and lead author of A Buyer’s Guide to Sustainable Biomass Sourcing for Carbon Dioxide Removal. They talk about topics like: How carbon removal is already competing with other uses for biomass. The complicated question of what counts as “waste,” which some BECCS companies are using to claim carbon reductions. Principles for sustainably sourcing biomass for carbon removal, like tracing chain of custody and avoiding market distortions. The environmental and carbon math tradeoffs involved in different sources of biomass. What Shayle would do with biomass if he were an omnipotent global leader. Recommended Resources: Carbon Direct: A Buyer’s Guide to Sustainable Biomass Sourcing for Carbon Dioxide Removal Catalyst: From biowaste to ​‘biogold’ Energy Transitions Commission: Bioresources within a Net-Zero Emissions Economy: Making a Sustainable Approach Possible Sign up for Latitude Media’s Frontier Forum on January 31, featuring Crux CEO Alfred Johnson, who will break down the budding market for clean energy tax credits. We’ll dissect current transactions and pricing, compare buyer and seller expectations, and look at where the market is headed in 2024. Catalyst is supported by Antenna Group. For 25 years, Antenna has partnered with leading clean-economy innovators to build their brands and accelerate business growth. If you’re a startup, investor, enterprise or innovation ecosystem that’s creating positive change, Antenna is ready to power your impact. Visit antennagroup.com to learn more. Catalyst is brought to you by Atmos Financial. Atmos is revolutionizing finance by leveraging your deposits to exclusively fund decarbonization solutions, like residential solar and electrification. Market-leading savings rates, cash-back checking, and zero fees. Get an account in minutes at joinatmos.com.

Venture and early-stage investment in climate tech in 2023 was down 30% from 2022, according to market intelligence firm Sightline Climate. But is that a bad thing? In this episode, Shayle unpacks the findings of Sightline’s 2023 Climate Tech Investment Trends report with Kim Zou, co-founder and CEO of the firm, which also produces the popular CTVC newsletter. (Shayle is an adviser to Sightline, and Kim was also previously a partner at Energy Impact Partners where Shayle works.) Kim argues that smaller deal sizes suggest that the climate tech space is actually maturing. The data focus on venture and early-stage capital, rather than non-equity financing, which actually expanded in 2023, another sign that climate tech finance is becoming more sophisticated. Shayle and Kim also cover topics like: Why food and land use fell out of the top three verticals (and why heavy industry took its place). Major funding rounds, acquisitions, and bankruptcies in 2023. The role of generalist investors moving into climate tech. Zou’s predictions for investment trends in 2024. Recommended Resources: Latitude: Exclusive: Non-equity funding for climate tech is taking off Latitude: Clean energy capital is getting pricier Catalyst: Financing first-of-a-kind climate assets Sign up for Latitude Media’s Frontier Forum on January 31, featuring Crux CEO Alfred Johnson, who will break down the budding market for clean energy tax credits. We’ll dissect current transactions and pricing, compare buyer and seller expectations, and look at where the market is headed in 2024. Sign up for Latitude Media’s newsletter to get updates on the tech and business frontiers of the climate tech industry. Catalyst is supported by Antenna Group. For 25 years, Antenna has partnered with leading clean-economy innovators to build their brands and accelerate business growth. If you’re a startup, investor, enterprise or innovation ecosystem that’s creating positive change, Antenna is ready to power your impact. Visit antennagroup.com to learn more. Catalyst is brought to you by Atmos Financial. Atmos is revolutionizing finance by leveraging your deposits to exclusively fund decarbonization solutions, like residential solar and electrification. Market-leading savings rates, cash-back checking, and zero fees. Get an account in minutes at joinatmos.com.

The voluntary carbon market is a mess. Oil majors, big tech, and many other industries purchase voluntary credits hoping to offset their carbon emissions. But years of reporting have revealed major problems in the industry, from worthless credits to outright fraud. Amid allegations that many of its credits might actually worsen global warming, the CEO of the largest issuer of credits, Verra, resigned last year. And so perhaps it’s no surprise that the market for traditional offsets like renewable energy credits and avoidance credits shrank in recent years. Yet the market for a newer type of credit, carbon removal, is actually growing.  So what’s behind this bifurcation in the market? And are the voluntary carbon markets fixable? In this episode, Shayle talks to Ryan Orbuch, partner at Lowercarbon Capital. He leads the firm’s carbon removal work. Ryan argues the market is fixable with major reforms, like overhauling incentives and ditching the idea that the voluntary carbon market can offset buyers’ emissions with as many cheap credits as needed.   Shayle and Ryan cover topics like: The bad incentives underlying the problems with the current market. The role of credit-rating agencies in the market. Ryan’s ideas for designing a better market from scratch, including ex-post payments, modular protocols, and a feedback loop for improving supplier methods. The potential challenges with these approaches, like financing prior to payment and uncertainty in credit delivery as protocols change. Companies that are pioneering some of these approaches, like Isometric’s new protocol for the bio-oil geological storage technique used by Charm Industrial. Recommended Resources: The New Yorker: The Great Cash-for-Carbon Hustle UC Berkeley: Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) Carbon Crediting CDR.fyi Isometric: Aligning incentives Sign up for Latitude Media’s Frontier Forum on January 31, featuring Crux CEO Alfred Johnson, who will break down the budding market for clean energy tax credits. We’ll dissect current transactions and pricing, compare buyer and seller expectations, and look at where the market is headed in 2024. Sign up for Latitude Media’s newsletter to get updates on the tech and business frontiers of the climatetech industry. Catalyst is supported by Antenna Group. For 25 years, Antenna has partnered with leading clean-economy innovators to build their brands and accelerate business growth. If you’re a startup, investor, enterprise or innovation ecosystem that’s creating positive change, Antenna is ready to power your impact. Visit antennagroup.com to learn more. Catalyst is brought to you by Atmos Financial. Atmos is revolutionizing finance by leveraging your deposits to exclusively fund decarbonization solutions, like residential solar and electrification. Market-leading savings rates, cash-back checking, and zero fees. Get an account in minutes at joinatmos.com.

There’s a hole in the finance world. Fighting climate change means scaling up lots of new technologies, but financing those first-of-a-kind (FOAK) projects is incredibly difficult. New technologies involving things like sustainable aviation fuel, geothermal, and direct air capture can take a decade or more to scale up. But venture capital is too expensive for FOAK projects, while infrastructure finance is too risk-averse. So what solutions could solve the FOAK financing problem?  In this episode, Shayle talks to longtime climatetech investor David Yeh. David has spent over 20 years in climatetech, including in roles at the Obama White House, Generation Investment Management, and the World Bank. They cover topics like: Different approaches to FOAK, like off-balance sheet, structured finance, catalytic capital, and government programs. Examples of companies that solved the FOAK problem Code switching between venture capitalists and infrastructure financiers. (Try using the word “innovative” with traditional bankers). David’s checklist for FOAK entrepreneurs. Recommended Resources: Bloomberg: Grant From Bill Gates-led Fund Will Make Green Jet Fuel As Cheap As Fossil Fuels CTVC: What the FOAK? If you want more news and analysis like this in your inbox, subscribe to Latitude Media's newsletter and Canary Media's newsletter. Catalyst is a co-production of Latitude Media and Canary Media. Catalyst is brought to you by BayWa r.e., a leading global renewable energy developer, service supplier, and distributor. With over 22GW in their project pipeline, BayWa r.e. is rethinking energy every day and at every level. Committed to being a solid partner for the long run, BayWa r.e. wants to work with you to help shape the future of energy. Learn more at bay.wa-re.com. Catalyst is brought to you by Sungrow. Now in more than 150 countries, Sungrow’s solutions include inverters for utility-scale, commercial, and industrial solar, plus energy storage systems. Learn more at us.sungrowpower.com.

It’s time to get specific. In the power industry “long-duration energy storage” could mean anything from 4 to 10 to 100 hours of energy. But Form Energy’s Mateo Jaramillo argues that batteries in the ballpark of 100 hours hit a sweet spot, and that sweet spot deserves its own term: multi-day storage. In the 15 minute to 12 hour range, lithium-ion batteries shine, effectively displacing natural gas peaker plants that run less than 5% of the year. But they don’t displace higher-capacity generation. Nor do they meet the needs of the grid during significant weather events, like heat domes, Nor'easters and freak Texas winter storms that can last upwards of 75 hours. And for that, Mateo says we need multi-day storage.  Form Energy’s iron-air batteries made headlines back in 2021 for promising to deliver tens of hours of storage at a low cost per kilowatt hour. (Energy Impact Partners, where Shayle is a partner, invests in Form Energy.) So what role could multi-day storage play on the grid? In this episode, Shayle talks to Mateo about real-world examples from Form’s experience with utilities like Xcel and Georgia Power. They also cover topics like: The strengths and limitations of lithium-ion batteries on the grid today, and why Mateo thinks lithium-ion is here to stay. The competitive landscape for mulit-day storage, including iron-air, carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, and transmission. What role multi-day storage plays for utilities beyond balancing renewables, such as meeting load growth and resilience goals. Plus: Shayle’s idea for bitcoin mining on a barge. Recommended Resources: Canary Media: Form Energy closes its biggest deal yet for long-duration energy storage Carbon Copy: A groundbreaking long-duration battery nears industrial scale Wall Street Journal: Old West Virginia Steel Mill Becomes a Green-Energy Powerhouse If you want more news and analysis like this in your inbox, subscribe to Latitude Media's newsletter and Canary Media's newsletter. Catalyst is a co-production of Latitude Media and Canary Media. Catalyst is brought to you by BayWa r.e., a leading global renewable energy developer, service supplier, and distributor. With over 22GW in their project pipeline, BayWa r.e. is rethinking energy every day and at every level. Committed to being a solid partner for the long run, BayWa r.e. wants to work with you to help shape the future of energy. Learn more at bay.wa-re.com. Catalyst is brought to you by Sungrow. Now in more than 150 countries, Sungrow’s solutions include inverters for utility-scale, commercial, and industrial solar, plus energy storage systems. Learn more at us.sungrowpower.com.

The U.S. Treasury proposed guidance last Friday that would significantly restrict what battery parts and materials can qualify for incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act. The rules label China and several other countries as “foreign entities of concern.” These rules will prevent materials and parts sourced from those countries, starting in the next few years, from counting toward the IRA’s electric vehicle tax credits. The new rules are meant to push battery companies to develop supply chains outside the control of Chinese officials and companies, which control much of the world’s battery industry. They come following a first batch of guidance released this year by the Treasury, which the IRA tasked with developing specific rules for implementing the law. So what does the new guidance mean for battery supply chains? This episode features two conversations with Sam Jaffe, senior director of business development at Addionics. The first is a short update on last week’s proposed rules. The second is a longer conversation Shayle had with Sam in April about the first batch of rules, which focused on which battery ingredients count as “constituent materials” under the IRA. Both discussions are relevant to understanding what’s happening now. In this update they cover topics like: Defining what counts as a material controlled by a foreign entity of concern, such as percentage ownership in a joint venture Key loopholes in law, such as licensing arrangements and small percentages of low-value materials, like cathode binder and electrolyte salts  The parts of the supply chain most significantly affected by the rule, such as Chinese graphite, Indonesian nickel, and Congolese cobalt Upcoming deadlines in 2025 and 2026, and whether onshored or friend-shored facilities can begin supplying materials before then Recommended Resources: Canary: The US EV industry now faces a choice: Tax credits or Chinese batteries Heatmap: It’s Suddenly a Mystery Which EVs Will Qualify for a Tax Credit in 2024 Sign up for Latitude Media’s Frontier Forum on January 31, featuring Crux CEO Alfred Johnson, who will break down the budding market for clean energy tax credits. We’ll dissect current transactions and pricing, compare buyer and seller expectations, and look at where the market is headed in 2024. Catalyst is brought to you by BayWa r.e., a leading global renewable energy developer, service supplier, and distributor. With over 22GW in their project pipeline, BayWa r.e. is rethinking energy every day and at every level. Committed to being a solid partner for the long run, BayWa r.e. wants to work with you to help shape the future of energy. Learn more at bay.wa-re.com. Catalyst is brought to you by Sungrow. Now in more than 150 countries, Sungrow’s solutions include inverters for utility-scale, commercial, and industrial solar, plus energy storage systems. Learn more at us.sungrowpower.com.