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The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the likely next chair of the Federal Reserve has prompted immediate market reactions and renewed debate around the future direction of US monetary policy. What should investors expect as the Fed faces new leadership? In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets – The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by David Kohl, Chief Economist, to discuss the implications of Kevin Warsh’s nomination to lead the Federal Reserve. They examine market reactions, the prospects for rate cuts, the outlook for the US dollar, and the potential impact on asset classes including treasuries, fixed income, and equities. The conversation also covers the Fed’s balance sheet strategy, the risk of increased volatility, and what a shift away from ample liquidity could mean for investors. Finally, they address the recent volatility in precious metals and whether the nomination will bring stability to gold and silver markets. (00:00) - Introduction (01:01) - Was Warsh's nomination a surprise? (01:39) - Hawkish or dovish: What does Warsh’s stance mean for the Fed? (03:20) - Expected rate trajectory and implications for monetary policy (05:19) - Data dependence and the Fed’s decision-making process (06:22) - Do we expect the US dollar to weaken further as a result? (09:59) - Will Warsh's nomination affect the Fed’s balance sheet? (12:07) - No further quantitative easing underr Kevin Warsh? (13:33) - What is the potential impact on financial markets? (15:11) - The new outlook for fixed income investors (16:04) - US equities and the case for diversification (17:38) - Precious metals volatility: Will the rollercoaster end? (19:27) - Closing remarks Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The Bank of England and the European Central Bank both kept rates unchanged yesterday, signalling a cautious but data‑dependent stance even as inflation trends diverge on either side of the Channel. European equities finished broadly lower on the back of a busy earnings day, while in the US a third straight sell‑off pushed the S&P 500 into negative territory for the year. Crypto joined the risk‑off trend, while silver remained the standout story in commodities after back‑to‑back plunges and an overnight rebound that left volatility high. In corporate news, Rio Tinto and Glencore scrapped their merger discussions. Today we are joined by Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, for an update on Asian tech stocks, and by Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, for the latest on metals and currencies. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (08:30) - Asia equity update: Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kon (15:49) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva g (20:27) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Earnings and Big Tech remain in focus, with Alphabet beating Wall Street’s expectations but causing some investors to take flight in the wake of projected capex spending. The rotation out of tech stocks continued on Wednesday - the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.5%. China’s Hong Kong-listed technology stocks slid overnight with the Hang Seng Tech Index now 20% below its October peak. The threat of VAT increases being imposed on internet platforms exacerbated the move. The ECB and the Bank of England are both expected to keep rates on hold today. With investors hypnotised by swings in gold and silver prices this year, it’s easy to lose sight of oil and natural gas markets.  In light of the current geopolitical tensions impacting these markets, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research joins the podcast to put things in perspective. (00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (05:58) - Oil and Gas: Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research (12:01) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The rotation out of technology stocks continued, with software shares selling off on AI‑disruption concerns, while cyclical stocks outperformed. WalMart reached a USD 1 trillion market‑cap milestone. German long‑dated yields hit their highest level since 2011 as heavy issuance lifted supply. Precious metals remain volatile but rebounded sharply, while Brent oil rises on Middle East tensions. In earnings, Novo Nordisk expects sales to fall this year due to pricing pressure. Afonso Borges from Fixed Income Research outlines developments in the US fixed income market and our Overweight stance on duration. Nenad Dinic from Equity Strategy provides an update on the earnings season and the outperformance of emerging‑market equities this year. (00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (00:51) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (07:08) - Update on US Federal Reserve: Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research (11:48) - Earnings season and EM update: Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research (18:34) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

After a deep slump at the open, market sentiment turned and equity markets swung sharply into positive territory, while precious metals — which had been under intense pressure — began to claw back recent losses in the hours that followed. In the US, tech favourite Palantir impressed after the close with stronger than expected results. And looking ahead, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation, shares his perspective on what the recent volatility means for precious metals and the path forward. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (05:13) - Making sense of the precious metals sell-off: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (09:48) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Gold and silver plummeted in a historic sell-off amid volatility and margin calls, triggered by speculation of a hawkish Fed chief pick. Markets reel as global equities tumble this morning, while investors brace for key earnings and central bank decisions in a turbulent start to February. Our Chief Economist David Kohl shares his view on what to expect from a Warsh-led Fed. And Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why the long-term trend in precious metals is still positive after the crash. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (05:23) - New Fed Chair: David Kohl, Chief Economist (09:39) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (12:36) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US equities were mixed yesterday, with investors rotating out of technology as Microsoft dropped sharply while Meta jumped. In Europe, SAP’s steep fall weighed on the DAX, while the Swiss market outperformed. Precious metals are experiencing extreme volatility after record highs, energy prices are rising amid escalating Middle East tensions, while markets also price in the growing likelihood that Kevin Warsh will become the next chairman of the US Federal Reserve. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, explains what to watch in an environment of historic precious‑metal volatility and dollar weakness. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:41) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (10:56) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The US Federal Reserve left rates unchanged and struck a data‑dependent tone, even as political pressure around the central bank intensifies. The S&P 500 briefly crossed 7,000 before paring gains, tech earnings from Meta, Microsoft and Tesla sent mixed signals after the close, and European markets fell on volatile moves in ASML and LVMH. The US dollar rebounded on comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent, while geopolitical tensions pushed oil higher and gold surged above USD 5,500 as silver and copper also reached record highs. Today we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, for a timely update on precious metals and why fundamental analysis cannot explain the most recent moves upwards. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (06:31) - Precious metals: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (10:56) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

A whirlwind week in global markets — and it’s only Wednesday. The dollar plunges, the Swiss franc hits multi‑year highs, and gold and silver seem unstoppable. Equity markets touch new records as investors brace for mega‑cap tech earnings and the Fed’s rate decision after market close today. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains what he expects from the US central bank. A fast, lively breakdown of what’s moving markets — tune in! Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

After a remarkable 2025, gold and silver have surged to new highs in early 2026, driven by a complex mix of geopolitical developments and speculative flows. What is fuelling this rally, can it continue, and how should investors position themselves in these volatile markets? In this episode of Moving Markets – The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Julius Baer’s Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, and Christopher Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading, to dissect the forces behind the explosive moves in gold and silver. The discussion covers the impact of US political dynamics, the role of central bank and ETF flows, the unique characteristics of the silver market, and the macro factors investors should monitor. The episode concludes with practical guidance for managing risk and navigating heightened volatility in precious metals. (00:00) - Introduction (01:26) - Key catalysts behind the gold and silver rally (03:12) - Trading flows, speculative positioning, and physical demand (04:25) - The role of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and silver market dynamics (04:58) - Silver – currency or commodity? (07:00) - Geopolitics and the persistence of the rally (08:43) - Erosion of confidence in US assets and implications for gold and silver (09:06) - Silver’s acceleration and trading behaviour (10:35) - Fundamental differences between gold and silver (11:59) - Macro factors to watch: interest rates, inflation, and the US dollar (13:09) - What investors should focus on now – gold (14:10) - What investors should focus on now – silver (15:02) - Key takeaways from trading (16:00) - Closing remarks Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets opened the week with a weaker US dollar and sharp gains in gold and silver. Precious metals broke key levels, with gold rising as high USD 5,100 and silver to over USD 112 an ounce. Equities and bonds were relatively calm, but global stocks are still near record highs. China’s annual industrial profits rose for the first time since 2021 and India and the EU announce a trade deal. Energy prices are being supported by cold weather in the US and geopolitics. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research discusses stablecoins and the broader crypto backdrop. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:43) - Digital assets in the wake of the gold rally: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (12:03) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Silver sailed past USD 100 on Friday and has topped 107.50 in Asia this morning. Meanwhile, gold has broken through the USD 5,000 mark. There’s a lot of focus on USD/JPY and a possible US government shutdown is also now on the cards. Along with the twists and turns of geopolitics, markets now face a dense run of central bank decisions and one of the busiest earnings weeks of the year. Our analysts expect a test of conviction as markets navigate policy, growth, and profits simultaneously. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides more colour on the moves in precious metals and the backdrop of the USD, setting out the case for how he believes investors should best position themselves in the current environment. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:45) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:49) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:28) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

China’s markets are off to a strong start in 2026, raising renewed comparisons to the 2015 boom‑and‑bust just as global tensions escalate — from dramatic US moves over Greenland to a surge in gold prices and a weakening dollar. With capital rotating out of U.S. assets and liquidity patterns shifting across Asia, does today’s rally carry familiar risks, or does it mark the start of a very different cycle?   In this episode of Moving Markets – The View Beyond, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management Ltd., to examine these cross‑currents: the resilience of A‑shares, the wave of Hong Kong tech IPOs, and why rising margin financing today is not a replay of 2015. They also highlight the key themes shaping 2026, including precious metals, AI‑linked industries, and high‑dividend opportunities.   This episode was recorded on 21 January 2026. (00:24) - Initial reactions to the Greenland crisis (02:39) - Implications on gold, US dollar, and global assets (07:36) - China’s rising margin financing balances, and the paradox of a “slow bull market” (12:55) - Hong Kong IPO glut: liquidity drain or healthy market growth? (17:05) - China’s economic cycle vs. valuations (21:16) - Key sector themes for 2026

Global risk sentiment improved as geopolitical tensions eased, diplomatic efforts advanced, and resilient US data lifted equities while pushing volatility and high-yield credit spreads to their lowest since 2007. European stocks played catch‑up, supported by their cyclical exposure and positive company‑specific news. The US dollar has weakened sharply this week, boosting risk‑sensitive currencies. Commodities are surging, with gold and silver extending their historic rallies on strong momentum and a weaker dollar. The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged but struck a hawkish tone. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, discusses the historic rally in precious metals and investor positioning given the weak USD. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:08) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (10:33) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

President Trump castigated European leaders over their response to his Greenland takeover attempt during his speech at the WEF in Davos yesterday but did step back from suggesting the use of military force. Equity markets rallied in response. They were given further positive momentum by a later post from the president which claimed that a framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland had been agreed with NATO and that tariff threats against Europe were off the agenda. Equity markets globally are mostly higher today and safe-haven assets have slipped. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, joins the podcast today to talk about Natural Gas - a sector that has not only seen a surge in prices of late, both in Europe and the US, but which also could be another bargaining tool for President Trump. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (05:55) - Natural gas and the Greenland commodities story: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (11:30) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.