Advertise on podcast: Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

In Episode 208 of Facts vs Feelings, Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, make the case that market breadth is overrated. With the S&P 500 less than half a percent from an all-time high and the Nasdaq printing a new record, the hosts explain why tech and tech-adjacent stocks, roughly half of the index, are carrying the market even as 10 of 11 sectors finished September in the red. They point to Micron's strong earnings, South Korea's surging chip exports, and rising AI capex estimates as evidence that profit growth is overpowering the rise in yields. From there, Ryan and Sonu break down the revised PCE data, arguing that inflation remains stubbornly hot, and cover the dovish turn from Fed officials that dropped October hike odds from about 70% to roughly 20%. They also discuss why the weak headline payrolls mask a healthy labor market. The episode wraps with a look at fourth-quarter seasonality, cautious investor sentiment near all-time highs, and their view that a global bull market supports staying diversified with a tilt toward tech and AI. [Key Takeaways] September's S&P 500 was nearly flat (down 0.3%) with 10 of 11 sectors in the red, but tech rose about 5%. The hosts expect a breakout in the tech sector ETF to lift the broader market as earnings season begins.Q4 is historically strong, averaging a 4.2% gain and rising more than 80% of the time. A negative Q1 followed by a 10%+ Q2 has never produced a down Q4, with an average return of about 6%.Inflation remains hot despite PCE revisions: Core PCE is running about 3% year over year, market-based core inflation is two to three times its historical pace, and ISM prices indexes are at multi-year highs, pointing to an inflationary growth environment.Fed hike odds for October fell from about 70% to roughly 20% after softer PCE data, light payrolls, and dovish Fed comments, though one more hike in December remains possible.The labor market is healthier than the headline 29,000 payrolls suggest, with the prime-age employment-population ratio at 80.7%, low layoffs, and Challenger job cuts at their lowest September level since 2022.Sentiment remains cautious near highs, with the CNN Fear & Greed Index in fear territory. The hosts view that lack of excitement as a net positive, and note that AI capex and profit growth are outweighing the drag from higher yields. Jump to: 0:00 — Welcome and What Matters Now 0:31 — Steve Jobs Legacy and Apple’s Run 6:24 — Why Breadth Headlines Miss the Point 10:56 — Tech Concentration and Sector Damage 15:26 — Q4 Seasonality and Earnings Setup 20:11 — Yields Rising Credit Stress Global Moves 22:11 — Europe Debt Fears and Politics Inflation 27:29 — Sentiment Still Cautious Near Highs 32:39 — PCE Revisions Still Hot Inflation 42:09 — PMIs Say Demand Strong Prices Hot 45:00 — Fed Hike Odds Payrolls Yield Curve 54:58 — Final Takeaways and Listener Requests Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In Episode 207 of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, welcome back Rory Johnston, founder and CEO of Commodity Context, to make sense of an oil market that remains historically tight more than 200 days into the war with Iran. Rory explains why Brent sits near $108 with extreme backwardation, why roughly 13.5 million barrels a day are now moving through the Strait of Hormuz versus a pre-war normal of about 21 million, and why he calls himself a "Hormuz half-empty" kind of guy. From there, the conversation turns to what Rory calls the "Beijing swing," as China cut net crude imports by about 5.5 million barrels a day, and to record-high diesel prices, including what a U.S. diesel export ban would mean for prices at the pump. The episode wraps with the market signals Rory watches that may indicate when the crisis is truly over: rising OECD inventories and the front of the crude curve flipping into contango. Key Takeaways Brent is near $108 with prompt spreads close to $8 a barrel, signaling an acute physical deficit even though Hormuz flows have recovered to about 13.5 million barrels a day, up from near zero for non-Iranian crude in March and April.Rory argues Iran is gradually losing control of the strait, but the cost is enormous: Iraqi barrels have been discounted by $30 to $50, VLCC rates have hit record highs, and the war is far from over.China cut net crude imports by roughly 5.5 million barrels a day, and Rory believes drawdowns of strategic crude and diesel stockpiles, not just weak demand, explain much of that swing, making it inherently unsustainable.Diesel remains the tightest part of the market, with roughly 2 million barrels a day lost from the Middle East and Russia, U.S. exports up about 50%, and diesel cracks running at several times normal levels.A U.S. diesel export ban would lower domestic prices but send global diesel prices soaring and eventually force refinery run cuts. Rory expects a rationing of export licenses rather than a full ban.In Rory’s opinion, the clearest signal the crisis is over would be OECD inventories rising and the front of major crude curves flipping into contango, which would show the supply deficit is truly behind us. Jump to: 0:00 — Welcome and a Family Update 2:35 — Rory Johnston Returns and Reintroduces Himself 6:40 — From $200 Oil Fear to Reality 10:45 — What Tight Backwardation Is Signaling 14:55 — Hormuz Transit Data and Dark Tankers 25:10 — China Demand Swing and the Brent WTI Gap 38:15 — Why the War Keeps Dragging On 42:10 — Diesel Shortage and Export Ban Math 47:55 — The Cleanest Signal the Crisis Ends 50:15 — Where to Follow Rory and Final Thanks Rory Johnson is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by this individual may not be representative of CWM, LLC. Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In Episode 206 of the Facts vs Feelings Podcast, Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, dig into the Mag 7's surge to a new all-time high, edging out the S&P 500 itself. The hosts point to Meta's blockbuster rally, up double digits on the back of a new AI agent that's been downloaded nearly a million times in less than a week, along with chip and semiconductor names like AMD, Intel, and Arm Holdings that all posted big gains as the AI capex story keeps accelerating. They discuss why tech and communication services are carrying the index while breadth complaints miss the bigger picture, and why the S&P 500 grinding sideways for weeks before a sharp move is a bullish, not bearish, signal. From there, the conversation turns to the Fed. Ryan and Sonu revisit last week's rate hike and dot plot, making the case that despite the headlines calling it hawkish, the underlying numbers, real policy rates, dot plot math, and a lack of any hawkish commentary on AI capex actually point to a more dovish stance than markets are pricing in. They also cover Bitcoin's breakout past $85,000, why the failed Clarity Act may be a hidden positive for crypto, and a batch of strong economic data: retail sales beating expectations, jobless claims at multi-year lows, and S&P 500 revenue growth being driven almost entirely by technology. The episode wraps with a look at extreme bearish sentiment readings despite a resilient market, and why that combination has historically set up strong seasonal rallies into Q4. [Key Takeaways] The Magnificent 7 hit a new all-time high and is now outperforming the S&P 500 on both a price and relative basis, fueled largely by Meta's double-digit rally after the launch of a new AI agent downloaded nearly 900,000 times in six days.Chip and hardware names surged alongside Meta's news, underscoring how AI capex spending continues to ripple through the semiconductor supply chain.Despite a 12-0 vote to hike rates and a dot plot showing one more hike projected for 2026, the hosts argue the Fed's own real policy rate and GDP/inflation projections actually point to a more dovish stance than the market is pricing in.Retail sales came in well above expectations (1.1% vs. 0.8%), core retail sales rose 5% annualized over the last three months, and jobless claims hit their lowest non-seasonally adjusted level since 2022, pointing to a resilient consumer and labor market.Bitcoin broke above $85,000 following the Fed meeting, and the hosts argue the failed Clarity Act may actually be bullish for crypto by keeping it outside mainstream finance and regulatory scrutiny. Jump to: 0:00 — Welcome and the Setup 1:15 — Mag 7 Retakes Leadership 6:35 — Meta’s AI Agent Sparks a Surge 11:20 — Breadth Complaints Versus Reality 15:05 — Fed Overhang and Market Calm 20:30 — Seasonality Fears and Sentiment Signals 27:30 — Yields, Inflationary Growth, AI Spending 31:35 — Bitcoin Breakout and Risk-On Clues 37:15 — Was the Fed Really Hawkish 45:00 — Dot Plot Math and Real Rates 52:05 — Revenue Growth Story Led by Tech 55:10 — Retail Sales Show Consumer Strength 56:50 — Jobless Claims and a Firm Labor Market 57:00 — Final Takeaways and Signoff Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

The Social Hour is back after a summer break, and this livestream edition came loaded. Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, are joined by two technical analysis heavyweights: Jay Woods, Chief Market Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets and CNBC contributor, and Scott Brown, Founder and Strategist at Brown Technical Insights. Fair warning: Scott was cheerfully reminded he was the (second? fifth?) choice to fill in for CNBC anchor Morgan Brennan, Sonu showed up with a Negroni, Jay was stuck with a Dunkin' iced coffee until the closing bell, and Ryan told the story of how he lost a rental car key and somehow got $200 off the bill. But in between? Plenty of substance. They dig into the Fed's recent hike and the dot plot, with Sonu making the case that this Fed is still dovish and Jay pointing to the war, oil, and the White House as the X-factors no one can quantify. Scott and Jay walk through what the charts are saying: weakening breadth, Dow Theory divergences, key S&P 500 support levels, and a consumer discretionary sector that's cracking. They also cover the bull case for Q4 (seasonality, credit holding up, Mag 7 turning up), the AI capex boom and what would signal it's over, Bitcoin and gold setups, oil's next target, and how election-year politics could hit the AI buildout. Key Takeaways: The Fed hiked: A unanimous vote, with most officials penciling in at least one more quarter-point increase by year-endStill dovish? Sonu argues that with core PCE forecasts up 100 bps, unemployment lower, and inflation not back to 2% until 2029, this Fed isn't really hawkishThe X factor: Jay flags the war, oil and diesel prices, and White House volatility heading into the midtermsBreadth is deteriorating: Only 49% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving average, and the advance-decline line is rolling overDow Theory warning: Industrials and transports aren't confirming the S&P 500, which sits just 3.5% off its highsConsumer discretionary under pressure: Relative weakness vs. staples and energy is a key concern Jump to: 0:00 — Disclosures and Quick Reset 0:43 — Social Hour Returns with Drinks 5:25 — Fed Takeaways and Dot Plot Signal 12:50 — Why The Fed Still Looks Dovish 15:40 — War, Oil, and the Political Wildcard 18:37 — Breadth Weakness and Sector Stress 22:31 — Dow Theory Divergences Explained 25:49 — A Rental Car Story and Mag 7 29:52 — Bitcoin and Gold as Market Tell 34:32 — Portfolio Reality and Promo Break 44:05 — Tech Dominance and AI Capex Boom 53:17 — Oil Targets, Yields, and Election Risk 59:30 — Key Takeaways and Next Livestream Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick  Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Connect with Jay Woods: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jay-woods-cmt-5972679/ • X: https://x.com/JayWoods3 Connect with Scott Brown: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-brown-cmt-22b62891/ • X: https://x.com/scottcharts Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In Episode 205 of the Facts versus Feelings Podcast, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, tackle the AI story dominating headlines: a viral tweet from a former Anthropic employee warning about civilization-level risk, an OpenAI/Hugging Face sandbox incident where AI agents were caught cheating and covering their tracks, and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's call to slow the AI frontier and create third-party auditors. The hosts draw parallels to past industries (AT&T, airlines, tobacco) that welcomed regulation to cement their dominance, and debate whether China will actually slow down its own AI push or keep charging ahead on deployment rather than AGI. From there, the conversation shifts to markets. The 10-year Treasury yield cracked 5% for the first time since 2023, and the team explains why that's less alarming than it sounds given nominal GDP growth running near 8%. They dig into hot CPI and PPI data, sticky services inflation (vet bills, wireless plans, dental care), and eye-popping PPI spikes in printed circuit boards and semiconductors tied to the AI buildout.  The episode wraps with a look at what's driving the S&P 500's 2026 return, why margin expansion has more than offset multiple contraction, and why credit spreads and defensive sectors aren't flashing recession warnings yet. [Key Takeaways] A viral tweet from a former Anthropic employee, plus an OpenAI/Hugging Face incident involving AI agents caught cheating and hiding it, has fueled fresh "AI risk" headlines, though the hosts note political and business incentives may be shaping the narrative.Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is calling for slower AI development, more interpretability tools, and third-party audits, a request the hosts compare to past industries (telecom, airlines, tobacco) that used regulation to entrench their dominance.The 10-year yield topped 5% for the first time since October 2023, but with nominal GDP growth near 8%, the hosts argue this looks more like normal repricing than a warning sign, especially compared to the late 1990s.Core and supercore inflation remain sticky, with services like vet care, wireless plans, dental work, and lawn care all running well above pre-pandemic norms, alongside PPI spikes of 65%+ annualized in printed circuit boards tied to the AI buildout.The S&P 500's ~13% year-to-date return has been driven almost entirely by earnings growth and margin expansion (up 16 percentage points), which has fully offset a 15-point drag from multiple contraction as rates have risen. Jump to: 0:02 - Welcome And The AI Alarm 1:40 - When AI Agents Cheat And Hide 5:20 - Slowing The Frontier And Regulation 14:20 - China Deployment Versus AGI Risk 21:43 - Ten-Year Yield Hits Five Percent 31:51 - Inflation Details CPI Versus PCE 38:45 - PPI Shock From AI Supply Chain 45:05 - Why Stocks Rise Despite Higher Rates 48:39 - Credit Spreads And Defensive Signals 55:10 - Livestream Plans And Closing Thoughts Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In Episode 204 of the Facts versus Feelings Podcast, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into why "everything's running hot" across the US economy. The hosts unpack the August jobs report, including a much stronger than expected 162,000 jobs created, upward revisions to prior months, a tick higher in labor force participation, and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate now sitting below 4.5% for a record 59 straight months. They also dive into which sectors are hiring, the truth behind tech layoff headlines, and why the Challenger job cuts data may be overstating labor market weakness. Later in the episode, the team covers scorching-hot ISM manufacturing and services data, surging commodity prices (copper, oil, diesel, gasoline), and what it all means for the Fed's rate decision next week, with markets pricing in real odds of a hike rather than a cut. They also touch on Lululemon's earnings miss, the AI-driven software rally, and pause to reflect on the 25th anniversary of 9/11. [Key Takeaways] August payrolls came in at 162,000, blowing past expectations, with prior months revised higher, a rare reversal after a long stretch of downward revisions.The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, marking 59 consecutive months below 4.5%, a record in the data series going back to the 1940s, while labor force participation ticked up for the first time in 11 months.Job growth over the past three months has been led by cyclical, higher-paying sectors, healthcare, professional/business services, construction, and manufacturing, accounting for the vast majority of gains.ISM manufacturing and services indices both showed activity and prices running hot, with services prices hitting their highest level since August 2022, reinforcing the "running hot" theme in growth and inflation.With nominal GDP growth strong and inflation elevated near 3%, markets are pricing in real odds of a Fed rate hike rather than a cut at the upcoming meeting, a sharp shift from where sentiment stood just weeks ago. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And Running Hot Theme 1:45 - Why Jobs Data Looks Underrated 8:00 - Payroll Revisions And Trend Changes 14:45 - Participation Rate And Unemployment Reality 20:30 - Sector Jobs Tech Weakness And AI 26:30 - Layoffs Data Myths Versus Scale 32:45 - Fed Odds And Running It Hot 41:00 - ISM Signals Prices And Commodities 48:45 - Stocks Versus Yields And Market Positioning 55:20 - 9/11 Memories And Lasting Impact 59:10 - Wrap Up Livestream And Disclosures Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In Episode 203 of Facts vs Feelings, Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, tackle a surprise caller's question on why oil and gas prices aren't higher given ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The hosts break down global oil dynamics, including China's massive strategic petroleum reserves, economic cooling, and EV adoption, as well as the impact of refining margins ("crack spreads") and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. Later in the episode, the team pays tribute to the legendary Dolly Parton and uses her timeless wisdom ("if you want the rainbow, you gotta put up with the rain") to frame long-term market resilience. Plus, they recap a surprisingly strong August for equities, analyze the tech sector's software surge, review blockbuster Nvidia earnings, and look back at historical market shocks like the 1998 Long-Term Capital Management crisis. [Key Takeaways] Despite severe supply shocks in the Strait of Hormuz, global oil prices have been cushioned by China's strategic petroleum reserves (SPR), slower domestic economic growth, and aggressive moves into electric vehicles (EVs).Elevated gas and diesel prices at the pump are driven not only by crude oil costs, but also by high refining margins ("crack spreads"), which have remained stretched due to attacks on Russian refining infrastructure.Defying historical seasonal weakness, the S&P 500 gained roughly 2.7% in August. Leadership rotated beyond chip stocks into beaten-down areas like equal-weight software, cybersecurity, and energy.Nvidia posted record quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion (up 106% year-over-year), with CEO Jensen Huang emphasizing that demand and AI compute acceleration remain robust.Referencing historical events like the 1998 Long-Term Capital Management crisis, the hosts remind investors that every year features scary headlines and bad days, but long-term investors must endure short-term "rain" to capture market gains. Jump to: 0:00 — Surprise Caller on Gas Prices 1:35 — Why Oil Is Not $200 4:10 — China’s Demand and SPR Release 6:10 — Crack Spreads and Refining Margins 8:02 — Listener Shoutouts and Bike Bus 9:28 — Dolly Parton and Market Perspective 13:31 — 1998 LTCM and Bad Market Days 15:35 — August Recap and Sector Leaders 18:40 — Software Surge and AI Agents 22:41 — Nvidia Earnings and AI Demand 31:59 — Vendor Financing Hidden in Footnotes 39:12 — Jackson Hole and Rate Uncertainty 49:57 — Rising Yields and 1990s Parallels 58:21 — Jobs Data Risks and September Myths 1:07:23 — ISM Signals Hot Growth and Wrap Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, mark episode 202 with "It's All About the Base(ment)," digging into last week's surprise Treasury announcement to double buybacks of long-end bonds after the 30-year yield hit 5.33%, its highest since 2007. Ryan and Sonu explain why this move — an operation-twist-style intervention rather than QE or yield curve control — spooked markets into the "debasement trade," sending gold up 5-6% and Bitcoin up more than 20% on the week while the dollar fell roughly 1%. They break down Stanley Druckenmiller's sharply critical Wall Street Journal op-ed on Bessent's approach, along with pushback from economist Guy Berger, and debate whether today's 10-year yield near 4.7% is simply normalizing back toward 1990s levels or whether nominal GDP growth suggests rates should go even higher. The conversation also covers a blowout Philly Fed manufacturing report and strong flash PMI data pointing to continued economic strength, market breadth and sentiment signals suggesting the bull market remains intact above key S&P 500 support, and a broader look at the $40 trillion national debt in context of rising household net worth. Ryan closes with thoughts on market technicals, portfolio diversifiers, and previews of Jackson Hole and Nvidia earnings coming later in the week. [Key Takeaways] Treasury's move to double long-end bond buybacks starting September 9, following the 30-year yield's spike to 5.33% (highest since 2007), sparked what Ryan and Sonu call the "debasement trade" — a rotation into gold and Bitcoin and out of the dollar.Gold rose 5-6% and Bitcoin surged more than 20% over the week, while the U.S. dollar index fell about 1%, an unusual reaction given that rising yields typically strengthen a currency rather than weaken it.Sonu frames the Treasury action as closer to a 1960s/2011-style "Operation Twist" than true quantitative easing, since it shifts duration without expanding the money supply, but notes it still risks pushing short-term yields and imported inflation higher.Stanley Druckenmiller's Wall Street Journal op-ed argued Treasury's buybacks amount to artificial suppression of the "only fiscal disciplinarian" left in Washington, sparking debate over whether the intervention is as powerful as he suggests.Comparing current nominal GDP growth (~5.5%) to the late 1990s (~5.8%) with today's lower 10-year yield (~4.3% average vs. ~6% then), Sonu argues rates may need to move even higher than current levels to reach true equilibrium.A blowout Philly Fed manufacturing report (47.4, highest since 2021) and strong flash PMI data (56, highest since April 2022) point to renewed industrial strength, largely tied to AI-driven investment. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And A Playful Title 1:22 - The 1,000-Point Dow Day Memory 4:01 - Personal Low Moments And Path Dependency 7:06 - Treasury Steps In As Yields Surge 14:18 - Druckenmiller Critiques Yield Defense 20:40 - Operation Twist And A Falling Dollar 23:12 - Gold And Bitcoin Jump On Debasement 27:54 - Are Rates Simply Back To Normal 36:02 - AI Boom Data Signals Real Strength 39:20 - Jackson Hole Expectations And Nvidia Setup 41:49 - Market Breadth Levels And Investor Sentiment 44:10 - The $40 Trillion Debt Context Check 49:30 - Portfolio Diversifiers And Final Takeaways 53:00 - Closing Thanks And How To Support Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, joins Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, live from Penn State as Ryan navigates college move-in day and a few very real headlines along the way. From there, they dive into the increasingly complex financing behind the AI boom, including NVIDIA's role in funding AI infrastructure, the rise of "neo-clouds," private credit, and the shift of AI financing risk from corporate balance sheets toward the broader financial system. Ryan and Sonu then examine what the market is saying about risk. Semiconductor stocks have staged a powerful rebound, financials are on an unprecedented winning streak, European banks continue to outperform, and private equity and private credit names are breaking higher. They ask whether these market signals are consistent with the growing recession concerns that dominate financial headlines. The conversation turns to the consumer, where weak retail sales headlines tell only part of the story. Sonu explains why Prime Day timing, lower gasoline prices, and volatile monthly data can distort the picture, while restaurant spending, household balance sheets, debt levels, and delinquencies suggest the consumer remains more resilient than sentiment surveys imply. They also explore why consumers can feel worse while continuing to spend on restaurants, travel, concerts, and other experiences. Finally, Ryan and Sonu tackle inflation from the household's perspective, highlighting stubborn services inflation in areas like lawn care, health care, vehicle repairs, restaurants, and veterinary services. They discuss falling expectations for a September Fed hike, rising long-term Treasury yields, massive federal deficits, the growing cost of government interest payments, a steepening yield curve, and heavy Nasdaq hedging. The episode closes with a broader look at what these signals mean for the bull market and the economy. [Key Takeaways] AI financing is becoming increasingly financialized. NVIDIA's involvement in AI infrastructure financing, alongside major private-capital firms and banks, is helping shift the funding of AI buildout toward private credit, special-purpose vehicles, and debt-backed structures.The AI financing risk may be moving rather than disappearing. NVIDIA's proposed backstop structure can reduce tail risk on its own balance sheet, but some of that risk is transferred to investors, lenders, institutions, and private-credit vehicles financing AI infrastructure.The consumer is showing more resilience than the headlines suggest. Retail sales weakened in July, but Prime Day's earlier timing, lower gas prices, and monthly volatility complicate the headline number. Restaurant spending remains strong, while household debt and debt-service burdens remain relatively manageable.Household leverage does not look excessive by historical standards. Total household debt declined in Q2 2026, credit-card debt was down during the first half of the year, and household debt-service costs remain below 2019 levels. Delinquency data also require context because charged-off debt can remain in reported measures for longer than it historically did.Inflation remains a problem at the household level. While some headline inflation readings have been encouraging, services such as lawn care, home health care, vehicle repair, restaurants, dental care, and veterinary services continue to run above pre-pandemic inflation rates.Jump to: 0:00 - College Move-In And Headlines 4:20 - The Circular AI Money Loop 8:30 - Neo-Clouds And Compute Financing Explained 16:40 - Chip Rally And Financials Breakout 19:45 - Why European Banks Still Lead 22:20 - Retail Sales And Consumer Fears 33:20 - Savings Rate Debt And Balance Sheets 43:30 - Delinquencies The Data And The Asterisk 49:40 - Inflation From A Consumer View 56:55 - Fed Hike Odds Shift And Yields Rise 1:01:20 - Deficits Long Bonds And Portfolio Positioning 1:08:15 - Nasdaq Hedging And Final Takeaways 1:11:57 - Wrap And Listener Requests Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

Celebrating 200 episodes, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, take Facts vs Feelings on the road to Boston for a live show, joined by special guest Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth. Art opens by explaining his opinion on why the market keeps climbing despite bubble fears and Fed uncertainty: Second-quarter earnings growth came in far above expectations, broadening out across all 11 S&P 500 sectors rather than staying concentrated in mega-cap tech. That broadening, he argues, is why the equal-weight S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 are outpacing the market-cap-weighted index this year. The conversation moves to the Fed, where new Chair Kevin Warsh's terser, less transparent communication style rattled markets around his last two meetings. Sonu and Art debate whether AI should be viewed as an inflationary force, adding "workers" to the economy rather than acting as the historically disinflationary technology wave investors expect. They also dig into hyperscaler CapEx, rising CDS spreads on tech debt, and why Art thinks the field of dominant AI players will eventually narrow. Art also makes the case against comparing today's AI buildout to the dot-com bubble, citing real business models versus the 2,600 companies that went public between 1995 and 2000. Carson's Barry Gilbert, VP, Asset Allocation Strategist, joins to discuss how to actually invest in AI through a barbell approach, and the episode wraps with reflections on 200 episodes, gratitude for the team behind the podcast, and a toast with Art. Key Takeaways Q2 2026 S&P 500 earnings growth beat expectations dramatically, with estimates that started around 13% rising above 23%, driving multiple compression from 23x to 19x forward earnings even as prices rose.For the first time in five quarters, all 11 S&P 500 sectors are showing significant earnings growth, with eight of 11 posting profit margin growth, explaining why the equal-weight index and Russell 2000 are outperforming the cap-weighted S&P 500.Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's less transparent communication style, including terse statements and non-committal press conferences, has unsettled markets around his last two meetings despite no actual policy surprises.NVIDIA is trading at a valuation multiple lower than the broader market despite 65-70% margins, reflecting investor uncertainty about whether AI mega-cap spending is near a cyclical peak.Small caps have returned roughly 21-22% year-to-date, with leadership shifting from unprofitable, speculative names early in the year to more profitable small caps as the market broadens out.Credit default swap spreads on hyperscaler debt are rising as investors reassess these companies from "capital-light, free-cash-flow-positive" to "capital-heavy, free-cash-flow-negative," with the market pricing in that only a handful of AI players will ultimately survive. Jump to: 0:00 — Live From Boston for 200 2:43 — Art Hogan Joins the Bar Talk 3:06 — Earnings Growth Explains the Rally 6:10 — Market Breadth and Nvidia Valuations 9:02 — Pencils Down Origins and Rituals 10:08 — Fed Communication and Inflation Anxiety 13:40 — AI Spending Versus Productivity Payoff 16:57 — Small Caps Benefit from Broadening 19:50 — Hyperscalers Debt and Credit Skepticism 23:41 — Timeless Advisor Advice Plus Bubble Myths 27:31 — Why Profit Margins Keep Rising 30:20 — How to Invest in AI Diversified 35:52 — Contrarian Ideas International and Software 39:39 — Gratitude Growth and a Carson Invite 43:15 — Final Toast with Art Hogan Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, open with a cautionary tale from the AI-focused hedge fund Situation Awareness, whose founder went from up over 400% year-to-date to a 67% collapse in July, a stark reminder that concentration, leverage, and liquidity can undo even the best fundamental research. At the Fed's latest meeting, Chair Walsh's refusal to offer guidance sent long-term yields soaring instead of calming markets, with the 30-year hitting its highest level since 2007. Sonu explains why nominal GDP growth running near 6-8% (even as real growth stays soft) points to a genuinely inflationary growth environment, and why the bond market, not stocks, may be the real test of the new Fed chair's credibility.  Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Google, and Oracle are now projected to spend over a trillion dollars in 2027 alone, close to 3% of GDP, with Microsoft and Amazon rewarded for showing results while Meta and Oracle get punished for spending without proof of ROI. They close with a look at GDP internals showing AI investment now accounts for over 40% of real GDP growth, banks breaking out to new highs as a bullish signal, a weakening dollar, and seasonal risks heading into August and September. [Key Takeaways] Situation Awareness, an AI-focused hedge fund, went from up over 400% year-to-date to down 67% in July after a concentrated, leveraged bet unwound, forcing a distressed sale of stock holdings to Citadel.Fed Chair Walsh's press conference offered little forward guidance, and long-term yields spiked in response, with the 30-year Treasury hitting its highest level since 2007 and 30-year mortgage rates climbing from 5.9% to 6.7% over the last five Fed meetings despite no rate changes.Nominal GDP growth has averaged 5.8% over the last six quarters (7.9% in Q2 alone), well above the 2010-2019 trend of 4%, supporting the view that this is an inflationary growth environment even as real GDP growth lags at 1.9%.The five largest hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, Oracle) are now projected to spend over $1 trillion in CapEx in 2027 alone, up from earlier 2026 outlook estimates of $600 billion, with markets rewarding companies showing revenue results (Microsoft, Amazon) and punishing those that aren't (Meta, Oracle).AI-related hardware and software investment accounted for roughly 42% of real GDP growth over the last six quarters and now represents about 5% of GDP, surpassing the peak proportion seen during the dot-com boom.Bank stocks (KBE) are breaking out to new highs after a base dating back to 2007, a signal Ryan argues is historically a positive one for the broader bull market, even as seasonally weak August and September approach in a midterm year. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And Quick Banter 1:25 - Live Boston Show Announcement 3:24 - AI Hedge Fund Blowup Lessons 9:39 - Fed Meeting And Market Whiplash 16:47 - Nominal Growth And Sticky Inflation 28:37 - Hyperscalers March Toward One Trillion 32:34 - Earnings Reactions From Big Tech 43:45 - GDP Under The Hood And AI Share 48:56 - Markets Sideways Seasonality And Banks 53:33 - Dollar Drop International Angle And Wrap Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into Apple reclaiming its title as the world's largest company by market cap after sitting out the AI spending race, while hyperscalers like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft pour ever-larger sums into CapEx. They break down record Q2 blended earnings growth of 38% year-over-year, the outsized role investment gains in private holdings like SpaceX and Anthropic played in Google's headline profit beat, and why core net income tells a different story.  The conversation shifts to the "chip crash" playing out in South Korea, where the KOSPI has fallen more than 30% from its June 22 peak amid margin calls and central bank rate hikes, and what that says about crowded momentum trades and the explosion of leveraged ETF products tied to tech and semis. Ryan and Sonu also cover the rotation into low volatility, financials, and healthcare, why flows into tech remain historically stretched even after the pullback, and preview this week's Fed decision amid unusually high rate-hike odds. They close with a personal update on Ryan's eye surgery, a shoutout to guest and TrendLabs Founder JC Parets' record-breaking episode, and details on the live 200th episode show in Boston. [Key Takeaways] Apple overtook NVIDIA as the world's largest company by market cap (~$4.9 trillion) after largely sitting out heavy AI CapEx spending, while free cash flow for semiconductor companies surpassed hyperscaler free cash flow for the first time this quarter.Q2 blended S&P 500 earnings growth hit 38% year-over-year, the best pace since Q3 2021, driven largely by tech (+65%), energy (+128%), and communication services (+112%); excluding Google, growth drops to 26%.A large share of Google's reported profit surge came from investment gains in private holdings (SpaceX, Anthropic) rather than core operations, a pattern also inflating net income at Amazon, NVIDIA, and Microsoft.South Korea's KOSPI fell roughly 33% from its June 22nd peak (before a further 10% one-day drop) as margin calls and a Bank of Korea rate hike hit heavily levered chip and momentum trades.Momentum's one-year excess return over the S&P 500 pulled back from the 96th to the 75th percentile relative to the last 40 years, while low volatility stocks are up 8% and financials up 11% since the market's June 2nd peak.Fed rate-hike odds this week sit near their highest pre-meeting level in recent memory, with the committee reportedly divided as inflation, a resilient labor market, and AI/Middle East-driven cost pressures complicate the outlook. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And Quick Setup 0:31 - Apple Reclaims Top Market Cap 5:16 - AI Capex Arms Race Reality Check 8:35 - Record Margins And Earnings Surge 16:44 - South Korea Sparks Chip Crash 23:49 - Ryan’s Eye Patch Surgery Story 29:58 - Why Tech Flows Look Crowded 35:28 - Leveraged Products And Margin Call Risk 42:40 - Rotation Into Low Vol And Defensives 46:57 - Contrarian Thinking Versus Momentum 54:41 - Interstellar Detour And Time Talk 57:19 - Fed Uncertainty And Rate Hike Odds 1:02:16 - Live Boston Show And Final Thanks Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese welcome back JC Parets, founder of Trend Labs (formerly of All Star Charts), for a wide ranging conversation on market breadth, momentum, and where the "dumb money" is currently making its biggest mistakes. JC walks through his deductive approach to markets, using breadth data like the NYSE advance decline line and the percentage of Russell 3000 stocks above their 200 day moving average to systematically rule out a bear market thesis, the same way a sommelier deduces a wine varietal. The conversation covers the dollar's surprising resilience as a headwind, the extreme dispersion between software and semiconductor stocks, why crypto and tokenized equities represent "the future of finance" rather than nothing of value, and why the S&P Bank Index breaking out above its 2007 highs is one of the most underappreciated bullish signals in the market. JC and Sonu also debunk the margin debt to GDP scare narrative, put leveraged ETF flows in perspective, and discuss portfolio construction through uncorrelated strategies rather than benchmark chasing. They close out with career advice on social media, JC's favorite cities to visit, and a debate over India's food scene. [Key Takeaways] The NYSE advance decline line closed at an all time high, and the percentage of Russell 3000 stocks above their 200 day moving average is at cycle highs, both inconsistent with bear market conditions, which require broadening weakness across new lows, not just a handful of names.Despite a rallying dollar this year, equities have held up well; a dollar rollover (speculators are currently net long and near extremes) could act as a tailwind for risk assets, emerging markets, and Latin America.Correlation between software stocks and the broader technology index fell to near zero (versus a typical ~70), an extreme unwind that's now driving a "catch up" rotation back into software as some semiconductor strength cools.The S&P Bank Index just broke out above its 2007 Great Financial Crisis highs, alongside breakouts in mid cap financials, small cap financials, and European financials, a broad based signal JC argues is very difficult to reconcile with an imminent recession.Margin debt scares are overstated when framed against GDP; relative to total stock market value, leverage is near multi decade lows, and leveraged ETF products remain a rounding error (about 0.25%) of total market size.Small cap and large cap value are hitting new multi month relative highs versus growth, offering a potential diversifier to a volatile, whipsaw prone momentum factor. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And Price As Proof 2:54 - Breadth Signals Still Say Bull 9:01 - Bitcoin Bets And Dollar Tailwinds 10:52 - Tech Dispersion And Software Catch-Up 12:53 - Crypto Rails And Tokenized Stocks 15:58 - Financials Breakout Challenges The Bears 24:59 - Margin Debt Myths And Leverage Reality 30:02 - Momentum Whiplash And Value Diversifiers 34:06 - From All-Star Charts To Trend Labs 39:40 - Uncorrelated Strategies Beat Benchmark Anxiety 42:56 - Technician Mentors And Who To Follow 48:00 - Social Media That Builds Careers 55:18 - Crack Spreads And Energy Signals 58:31 - Gratitude And Final Takeaways Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In this mid-year outlook episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, revisit their 2026 forecast and explain why they've raised their S&P 500 target from 12-15% to 15-18% for the year, while holding bonds steady at 3-5%. They walk through how AI capex has become a macroeconomic story as much as a market one, contributing roughly 90 basis points per quarter to real GDP growth, and why hyperscaler spending plans for 2026 and 2027 keep getting revised sharply higher. The conversation covers the labor market's quiet resilience, why business creation data suggests confidence rather than desperation, an inflation picture that isn't going away despite market expectations for Fed rate hikes, and a sector rotation story where former "value" stocks like Micron have become momentum plays almost overnight. Ryan and Sonu also dig into earnings estimate revisions, midterm-year volatility patterns, diversifiers like gold and managed futures, and swap stories from their World Cup travels before previewing next week's guest. [Key Takeaways] Carson raised its 2026 S&P 500 target from 12-15% to 15-18% at the midpoint of the year, with the index already up 11% total return year-to-date; bonds remain forecast at 3-5%.AI-related hardware and software investment (excluding data centers) has contributed about 45% of real GDP growth over the last five quarters, roughly 90 basis points per quarter.Hyperscaler capex estimates keep climbing: the five largest tech spenders were projected to spend $470 billion in 2026 back in November; that figure is now $740 billion, with 2027 estimates rising from $530 billion to nearly $900 billion.S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have risen from $308 to $339 a share (up 10%) since the start of the year, with 2027 estimates up 12%, led by technology, energy, and materials.The labor market shows underlying strength despite headline softness, with unemployment at 4.2%, average payroll growth around 110,000 a month, and falling continuing claims.Inflation remains sticky due to incomplete tariff pass-through, reshoring-related cost increases, and rising computer/software prices, a reversal from the deflationary tech trends of the 1990s. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And The Midyear Setup 1:45 - Why We Raised The Stock Target 5:38 - AI Spending Shows Up In GDP 9:44 - The Consumer Looks Better Than Feels 14:20 - Business Creation As A Confidence Signal 17:08 - The Real Leaders Inside “Tech” 18:53 - Earnings Keep Getting Revised Higher 27:03 - The Inflation Problem Isn’t Gone 31:06 - The Fed Pause Versus Hike Pricing 35:00 - Second-Half Equity Playbook And Rotation 42:19 - Volatility, Breadth, And Midterm Patterns 49:06 - Bonds, Oil Headlines, Gold, Diversifiers 52:55 - World Cup Travel Notes And Wrap-Up 57:08 - Disclosures Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]

In Episode 195 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, celebrate the Dow's first close above 53,000 and break down the fastest 1,000-point milestone in the index's history. They unpack what's really driving the S&P 500's 10% first-half gain, splitting the return into earnings growth, margin expansion, and multiple contraction to make the case that this rally isn't a valuation-driven bubble. The episode also covers the widening gap between mega-cap tech and the "lag 7," how AI is quietly showing up in small-cap and industrial stock returns, record highs across advance-decline lines, and why a stretched momentum trade doesn't have to mean disaster for the second half. Ryan and Sonu also swap origin stories marking their four- and seven-year anniversaries at Carson, react to Team USA's World Cup exit, and preview next week's mid-year outlook. [Key Takeaways] The S&P 500's 10% first-half return was driven almost entirely by fundamentals: earnings growth contributed 18 percentage points while multiple contraction subtracted about 8.5 points, meaning stocks are actually cheaper than they were six months ago.Forward margins have jumped from roughly 14.5% to 16% since January, contributing 10 percentage points to the year-to-date return alongside 8 points from sales growth tied to nominal GDP.Technology gained 33% in the first half even as the "Mag 7" fell about 4%, showing how much dispersion exists within the sector as AI-driven names pull away from laggards like Apple and Microsoft.AI's influence now stretches well beyond big tech: roughly 12 of the Russell 2000's 23% first-half gain traced back to AI-linked names, with industrials contributing more than financials.Multiple advance-decline lines, including the NYSE, S&P 500, small-cap, and global Dow, hit all-time highs, a breadth signal that has historically preceded market peaks by about 11 months on average.The S&P 500 momentum index's trailing one-year excess return sits in the 96th percentile versus the last 40 years, prompting Carson to trim some momentum exposure in favor of diversification rather than trying to time an exit.Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And Market Milestones 0:58 - Dow 53,000 And Summer Rally 3:26 - What Really Drove Returns 8:31 - AI Volatility Plus Sector Rotation 16:31 - Breadth Signals And Slingshot Stats 23:29 - Momentum Extremes And Risk Management 28:45 - Ryan’s Carson Origin Story 32:05 - Sonu’s Origin Story And AI Era 42:04 - World Cup Heartbreak And Leadership 47:57 - Payrolls Takeaways And Wrap-Up Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! [email protected]