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This week on the Raw Politics podcast: what's all this talk about an election overhang? Plus the Greens, the quiet giant of this campaign Will the campaign for an overhang in Parliament – basically enlarging the House under MMP to inflate one side's chances of success – save the incumbent centre-right coalition? Today, the Raw Politics panel discusses the campaign for an overhang, what it means, and why National is resisting this offer of help. Join senior political reporter Marc Daalder, political editor Laura Walters and co-editor Tim Murphy as we discuss the advantages and perils of voting for someone other than your gut preference, for second-guessing the system. Then the panel analyses the largely unremarked-upon rise of the Green Party, hitting 15 percent or more in seven of the past 10 public opinion polls and on the verge of achieving the highest representation of any party in the history of MMP. In our third topic we look back on the great gang photo scandal – who it hurt, and why (so far) the three parties caught on camera have emerged unscathed in the polls. Finally, we offer recommendations for you to read, watch or listen to over your weekend: Tim: Derek Cheng in the Herald ($) on Why the latest poll is hopeful for Labour, and is Luxon’s tactic working? Laura: Our own Marc Daalder's deep analysis piece on the maths of overhangs. Marc: Toby Manhire of The Spinoff on Parliament literally running out of chairs Raw Politics will be available wherever you get your podcasts at the end of each week, and to watch on YouTube.

This week on the Raw Politics podcast: One last chance to hear the wisdom and biting analysis of the great Sam Sachdeva as he signs off after a decade with Newsroom With 16 days until polling day, can the major parties and their minor partners put Opportunity back into its bottle and jam the cork shut tight? Today, the Raw Politics panel discusses National's efforts to talk Opportunity's polling numbers down, New Zealand First's dismissal of it as a lamb among coalition negotiating wolves, and the Greens' admonishment of it as a Trojan horse rolling in to back the right.  The remaining fortnight of the campaign will be dominated by Opportunity's ability to survive the assaults of opponents and to keep hope alive for its backers who got it over the 5 percent threshold but might not be able to keep it there. The panel also examines what National leader Christopher Luxon has grudgingly conceded is a "crisis" in the health system – and the political repercussions that hospital staffing issues, delayed care and overloaded emergency departments might have on voter choices.  We review the six broadcast debates between party leaders, picking the best and worst-performed politicians and best moderators.  Finally, we offer recommendations for you to read, watch or listen to over your weekend:   Tim: Our own Raw Politics chief Marc Daalder's fine Campaign Observer column imagining who might be in a Labour-Greens-Opportunity Cabinet post-election Marc: Joel MacManus’ at-times brutal column on the final leaders’ debate for the Spinoff. Sam: Herald political editor Thomas Coughlan’s piece on Labour’s enrolment drive and its fears about turnout Raw Politics will be available wherever you get your podcasts at the end of each week, and to watch on YouTube.

This week on the Raw Politics podcast: a major star in a minor debate, Labour’s rising star, and old political stars sharing the campaign limelight New Zealanders watched a remarkable political moment this week, with the emergence of Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong as a stand out in the televised debate between minor party leaders.Today, the Raw Politics panel discusses Wong’s moment and the flip side, the diminishment of veteran NZ First leader Winston Peters, in what was a smart and testing debate format. Wong’s countering of an attack from the Greens’ Chlöe Swarbrick, and joking request to other panelists for Christopher Luxon’s mobile number, will stay long in the memory. While the ‘minors’ debated, Labour and National soldiered on, bruised but unbowed by their shared 28 percent result in the latest 1 News-Verian poll. Labour continues to roll out consumer protections and cost of living measures, in a concerted effort utilising a rising star. The panel also considers if the emergence of former party leaders John Key, Jacinda Ardern and Helen Clark into the campaign is a positive or negative for the major party leaders struggling to get out of their own shadows, let alone those of former PMs who won and won big. Finally, we offer recommendations for you to read, watch or listen to over your weekend: Tim: Joel McManus’ interview and campaign profile for the Spinoff on Chlöe Swarbrick Marc: Sam Sachdeva’s Newsroom scoop on Winston Peters actions over the NZ abstention at the UN on future pandemics Sam: Farah Hancock’s deep dive for RNZ on the multimillion-dollar hustle to fund election campaigns. Raw Politics will be available wherever you get your podcasts at the end of each week, and to watch on YouTube.

This week on the Raw Politics podcast: can Luxon find his debate A-game, fiscal holes swallowing everyone, and relief at NZ First's party list Does it matter who's the better talker in a leaders' debate? Does even one vote move into the correct column on November 7?  Today, the Raw Politics panel discusses not only the aftermath of Chris Hipkins' anointed 'win' in the first big TV debate with Christopher Luxon but also how as winner and loser they should approach round 2, next Wednesday. Join senior political reporter Marc Daalder and associate editor Sam Sachdeva in Wellington and Newsroom co-editor Tim Murphy in Auckland as they try to sift fact from fiction in the great political game of parties accusing one another of covering up fiscal holes. One of Murphy's takes, he thinks, puts him at risk of being cancelled by the Wellington beltway.  The panel assesses the New Zealand First party list, with newcomers elevated to winnable spots and loyal time servers relegated into likely but not guaranteed positions. Does leader Winston Peters front them individually when they're on the path to demotion, or does he leave it to the "party"?   Finally, we offer recommendations for you to read, watch or listen to over your weekend:   Tim: Hayden Donnell’s ‘Walking with Winston’ in the Spinoff, including this perceptive line "despite his prodigious charisma, Peters is finding it hard to talk to normal people". Marc: Glenn McConnell’s scoop in Stuff on the crackdown on MP benefits Sam: Cass Mason's report for Newsroom on ex minister Michael Wood's search for redemption in Mt Roskill  Raw Politics will be available wherever you get your podcasts at the end of each week, and to watch on YouTube.

This week on the Raw Politics podcast: voters get their last look at the books, will strategic voting help or harm National, plus Opportunity’s bottom lines The big reveal is over and the economy might well get a lot better a lot more quickly than thought, but might it be too late for voters doing it tough? Today, the Raw Politics panel discusses what we can read into the pre-election economic and fiscal update. Its current numbers are positive but its near future risks and worries are not, and unlikely to pierce the electoral gloom before November 7. Join associate editor Sam Sachdeva and political editor Laura Walters at Parliament and Newsroom co-editor Tim Murphy in Auckland as we ask if Labour is about to run smack, bang into a difficult fiscal reality and if its promises could be unaffordable. The panel also analyses calls for people on the right to vote strategically – for National in the electorate vote and for Act or New Zealand First for the party vote – to theoretically enlarge the total size of Parliament and ensure the centre right wins more than half of it. Our third topic is the Opportunity Party and its five bottom lines announced this week. Its leader Qiulae Wong left off its two biggest policy planks, a universal basic income and land tax, but the panel thinks that’s understandable; there’s always a need to eat the electoral elephant one bite at a time. Finally, we offer recommendations for you to read, watch or listen to over your weekend: Tim: A column we ran here on Newsroom, with public health expert Dr Boyd Swinburn assessing NZ First’s health agenda as “more vibes and vitamins than actual evidence” Laura: Parallel Newsroom analysis on the National and Labour Party campaign launch events, from Sam and Tim. National’s taxing campaign to hold the throne & Labour launches with a Wahs-like vibe and a student surprise Sam: Adam Pearse’s pitch-perfect NZ Herald dispatch from the campaign trail in Auckland, complete with Simeon Brown getting stranded at a pedestrian crossing and Christopher Luxon asking a young boy to shake his mullet. Raw Politics will be available wherever you get your podcasts at the end of each week, and to watch on YouTube.

This week on the Raw Politics podcast: Are dirty politics happening before our eyes? Bouquets and brickbats for Parliament; and the Hager book assessed How big a deal for voters is the latest string of misleading, dirty and sometimes AI-generated attacks from across the political spectrum? And might they backfire? Today, the Raw Politics panel discusses false claims, out-of-context footage, AI slop and campaign disinformation which is happening even before we get into the official election campaign period Join senior political reporter Marc Daalder and associate editor Sam Sachdeva at Parliament and Newsroom co-editor Tim Murphy in Auckland as the panel asks if two examples of ads that National has been pulled up on, and ongoing allegations between parties, matter at the ballot box. The panel also offers bouquets and brickbats for the just-concluded Parliament and a debating chamber riven by indiscipline, falling standards and a Speaker exhibiting inconsistent rulings. Our third topic is Dirty Work, the latest book by Nicky Hager released this week. It is the third of a trilogy which actually feels a bit like two-and-a-half books. While it makes a range of allegations, it is lighter on evidential documentation and detail, and slimmer in volume, than his earlier investigative works. Finally, we offer recommendations for you to read, watch or listen to over your weekend:   Sam: Newsroom's Dave Williams' comprehensive two-part inquiry into the Taxpayers' Union from back in 2023. Tim: The latest Ipsos Issues Monitor, out Friday, continues the trend of Labour outpointing National on all of the top six issues of concern to the public, including the economy. National wins favour for the seventh most important issue, law and order. Marc: Kate Newton of RNZ's scoop on the Govt denying a law change to allow a start-up to dump particles in NZ oceans  Raw Politics will be available wherever you get your podcasts at the end of each week, and to watch on YouTube.

This week on the Raw Politics podcast: Is National and Labour's dominance over? Politicians get desperate on supermarkets; plus what to do about the police Are we at the end of days for the dominance by two big anchor parties in our governments, or will normal order be restored once things get back to ... normal? Today, the Raw Politics panel discusses Labour and National's combined polling being stuck down below 60 percent and whether the two 'major' parties will soon just be two of five or six parties of varying strength. Join senior political reporter Marc Daalder and associate editor Sam Sachdeva at Parliament and Newsroom co-editor Tim Murphy in Auckland for analysis of the reasons behind National and Labour's decline. The panel also examines National's radical, interventionist plan to force NZ-owned grocery co-operative Foodstuffs to carve itself up into separate businesses to compel competition in the supermarket sector - while leaving Australian-owned corporate Woolworths exempt. Our third topic is the ongoing series of controversies involving our police department, from its top executives to its high profile, flawed pursuit of Tom Phillips and his children and then the peculiar political attacks against a top officer who decided to stand for Labour. Finally, we offer recommendations for you to read, watch or listen to over your weekend: Sam: Fact-checking Farmer Kev and Landlord Larry: Do Opportunity’s tax tales stack up? – Emma Ricketts, Stuff Tim: David Williams' Newsroom electorate profile of Christchurch Central, where the Greens are getting serious and the majors are nervous Marc: Why rebuilding after climate disasters is no longer enough – David Wallace-Wells, NY Times Raw Politics will be available wherever you get your podcasts at the end of each week, and to watch on YouTube.

This week on the Raw Politics podcast: Labour’s search for its second wind, hands up for a public supermarket, and Paris in election time Eight weeks until the election and Labour gets shocked out of its sleepwalk to possible defeat. Today, the Raw Politics panel discusses how Labour can and will react to one, yes, one poll placing it at 25.9 percent public support but its own internal polling obviously drifting lower as well. Join senior political reporter Marc Daalder and associate editor Sam Sachdeva at Parliament and Newsroom co-editor Tim Murphy in Auckland for analysis of Labour’s acknowledged shift on to the front foot and concentrating on its policies now rather than its years of “oppositional” politics. The panel also examines a steady strengthening of the Greens’ polling and the party’s bold – and much criticised on the right – policy to create a state-owned supermarket chain by forcing the two big players to give up stores and distribution centres across the country. Is it a Soviet-style dead hand of government or a breakthrough? Our third topic is the politics of climate change. A big conference this week brought the main parties to the same stage and indirectly led to sharp accusations from Labour over “National and its mates” wanting to withdraw NZ from the Paris climate agreement, and an aggressive denial. Finally, we offer recommendations for you to read, watch or listen to over your weekend: Tim: An important interview on Stuff by Patrick Gower with the family of the man who died in a bathroom at the waiting room of Waikato Hospital’s A&E earlier this year. Marc: The NZ Herald’s team coverage of the Government’s late Thursday dump of its documents related to the development of the May Budget. Sam: Analysis of Labour new AI policy, by Newsroom’s own Fox Meyer Raw Politics will be available wherever you get your podcasts at the end of each week, and to watch on YouTube.

This week on the Raw Politics podcast: the coalition eyes drastic change in the public service, Te Pāti Māori eyes drastic change in our constitution, plus why health imperils every government The Government's making no secret of its plan to cull, reshape and redirect government departments and ministries if it gets a second chance after November 7. Today, the Raw Politics panel discusses the scale of the planned abolitions, mergers and straight out headcount cuts ministers want to line up through 2027 and beyond. Join senior political reporter Marc Daalder and political editor Laura Walters at Parliament and Newsroom co-editor Tim Murphy in Auckland for analysis of the radical overhaul planned for the public service in a potential second term.  The panel also examines Te Pāti Māori's plans for constitutional reforms and paramountcy of the Treaty and how big an appeal its announcements will have among Māori voters, with the risk of likely coalition partner Labour copping any electoral backlash from voters on the general roll.  Our third topic is the perennial political landmine of the health system, a threat to the prospects of any government. While National and Labour feud over the number of additional nurses in the system under this administration, real world events like a death in an A&E waiting room and a hospital's nurses declaring a state of emergency have the potential to derail any minister's bid to talk up health investments.  Finally, we offer recommendations for you to read, watch or listen to over your weekend:  Marc: Azaria Howell of Newstalk ZB's scoop on the Brian Roche cutting the public service letter.   Laura: Māni Dunlop of Te Ao Māori News' in-depth explainer on TPM’s bottom lines, where other parties sit, and the history and future of constitutional reform Tim: Our own Marc Daader's magisterial piece on Newsroom on the latest UN environment report: Global warming will pass 1.5C - what are you going to do about it? Raw Politics will be available wherever you get your podcasts at the end of each week, and to watch on YouTube.

The country’s two biggest political parties found common ground this week not once, but twice. Well, kind-of, temporarily, with not much grace or real commitment. Today, the Raw Politics panel discusses Labour’s decision to back National’s bill on limiting social media access for under 16s, and Labour’s grudging acceptance of a move to force a legislative cap on council rates. Join senior political reporter Marc Daalder and associate editor Sam Sachdeva at Parliament and Newsroom co-editor Tim Murphy in Auckland, for analysis of the two big blue-red (purple) agreements of this campaign. Both big parties have correctly read the public mood in belatedly proposing, then agreeing to back at the outset, a social media ban. Polls show support for measures to protect young people from social media harm. The rates cap probably has strong public support as well – who wouldn’t want increases in their rates bills forced under 4 percent? But that policy is fraught with risks for both reducing council services to the public and cutting local government’s investment in maintenance and infrastructure. Our third topic is the National Party’s walking away from a Government-Auckland Council deal to “explore” an accomodation bed levy to fund tourism promotion, events and infrastructure. Such 30-year-deals are often all talk and this one is already fraying after just four months. Finally, we offer recommendations for you to read, watch or listen to over your weekend:Marc: Our Newsroom colleague Andrew Bevin’s story on the under-funded wildlife hospitals on the frontline of the bird flu outbreak.Sam: Henry Cooke’s profile of a legend of political journalism Richard Harman, in The Post Tim: Phil Smith of RNZ’s excellent piece analysing the number of extra nurses added under this Government. Raw Politics will be available wherever you get your podcasts at the end of each week, and to watch on YouTube.

The election is 78 days away so it’s over time to start tuning in to what’s going on in the world of politics. Our Raw Politics podcast is here to help. From today, Raw Politics returns every Friday to dissect the major issues in politics and the political strategies playing out around them. Today, join senior political reporter Marc Daalder and associate editor Sam Sachdeva at Parliament and Newsroom co-editor Tim Murphy in Auckland, who look ahead into this perpetual election campaign and pick the people and moments to watch. Finally, we offer recommendations for you to read, watch or listen to over your weekend: Sam: Our press gallery colleague Hanna’s interview with long-time Opportunity Party candidate Jessica Hammond Marc: The NZ Geographic feature West Side Story, about the youth in Huntly who have ditched dirt bikes for horses. Tim: Lilian Hanly’s piece on RNZ asking a very pertinent question: Can one Minister handle 11 portfolios?

On this week’s Raw Politics podcast: We honour the standout performances and policies, good and bad, of this year, plus make our predictions for 2025 Four different MPs are nominated by our four Raw Politics panelists for the honour of standout politician of 2024 – and consensus is hard to come by for many of our other accolades. The Raw Politics podcast weighs the good and bad for 2024 – leaders, new MPs, policy pushes, controversies and cringeworthy moments. A sneak preview: the cringe of the year is shared by two big names in Parliament, both for their actions captured on video. A full bench this week of Newsroom political editor Laura Walters, senior political reporter Marc Daalder, national affairs editor Sam Sachdeva and co-editor Tim Murphy shows we don’t succumb to groupthink on this podcast. The nominations, and the predictions for next year, are broad and varied, including a preview of the Newsroom press gallery’s more considered ‘Awards of the State’. The panel pitches forward into 2025 with predictions of big Budget cuts, exits for parliamentary heavyweights, failure on international deals, and critical moments in climate policy.  -------------------- This week's recommendations: Tim: Predictable, I imagine, but mine is Aaron Smale’s big series at Newsroom on the Crown-cover-up over the legal cases taken by victims of abuse in care Marc: Joel MacManus’ Budget debate dispatch – I laughed when I read it in May and I laughed when I read it this morning too Sam: Guyon Espiner’s reporting on Casey Costello and tobacco policy Laura: Marc Daalder’s fantastic early scoop on the PM claiming the $52k accommodation allowance. It was the story that kept on giving, and continues to be referred to in the context of whether the PM is in touch with struggling, everyday NZers -------------------- Raw Politics will be available every Friday here on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and YouTube too. Read more on Newsroom - https://newsroom.co.nz

This week on the Raw Politics podcast: what voters want on climate change policy, will ministers ditch the foreshore repeal, plus Ayesha Verrall's faux pas Climate change is hard and changing New Zealanders' attitudes and behaviour seems harder still for this Government and its predecessors. Should the coalition accept that's the reality and go slow and low in its ambitions for change? The Raw Politics podcast looks at the coalition's latest report on methane from farm animals – a dense scientific fig leaf that could allow ministers to let NZ do less to cut emissions. Newsroom political editor Laura Walters, senior political reporter Marc Daalder and co-editor Tim Murphy ask if the national and international mood on dealing with climate change is enabling National, Act and NZ First to give up, even if just a little, on our national targets. For our second topic, Murphy recaps the short history of the foreshore, seabed Māori customary rights and the Marine and Coastal Areas Act. And he explains the Government's latest options to either withdraw its urgent repeal Bill or stay staunch and restrict Māori from winning claims in the courts. Would the ruling coalition get egg on its face if it backs down, or would that act to lower tensions that exist in Crown relations with Māori over other controversial measures like the Treaty Principles Bill? The panel asks if Labour's Ayesha Verrall went too far in her personal comments against Health NZ chair Lester Levy – and whether that took the focus off the actual scandal of the health commissioners trying to game their annual budgets. -------------------- This week's recommendations: Tim: Jonathan Milne’s scoop revealing Health NZ and Lester Levy were stopped by the auditor-general from shifting costs from this year into last, in what could have been embarrassing for the last, Labour government Marc: RNZ’s story on the oil and gas lobby asking the Government to underwrite fossil fuel exploration Laura: A piece by Tom Hunt from The Post on the Vision for Wellington lobby group and their communications with the PM and other senior Government ministers  -------------------- Raw Politics will be available every Friday here on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and YouTube too. Read more on Newsroom - https://newsroom.co.nz

This week on the Raw Politics podcast: Remembering Nikki Kaye, assessing the Labour Party one year on, and Christopher and Winston's nostalgia trip on foreign affairs Labour's MPs and party members gather in Christchurch this weekend, a year after a humiliating defeat took them from the historic, first majority MMP government into the wilderness, watching a centre-right coalition dismantle their legacy. The Raw Politics podcast assesses where the party finds itself, with the electorate and members of the public still not answering the phone, but too early to reveal a new strategy, policies or even a new leader.  Newsroom political editor Laura Walters, national affairs editor Sam Sachdeva and co-editor Tim Murphy ask if Labour can do anything to beat the NZ aversion to throwing out one-term governments and if Chris Hipkins is the leader to pull off such a stunning upset. For our second topic, the panel assesses New Zealand's new foreign policy, Sam Sachdeva delivers his views having watched Christopher Luxon's impact at Apec in Peru, and we ask if Winston Peters' exhaustive travel schedule means he's effective at his job.  Raw Politics also marks the death of former National MP and minister Nikki Kaye, a politician with a real difference, unmatched energy and a weakness for long, long phone calls with journalists.  -------------------- This week's recommendations: Tim: A lovely, poignant podcast chat between Nikki Kaye and the Island Stories host Tim Higham, on politics, life, cancer and hope for the environment. Sam: Newsroom's Laura Walters and Fox Meyer's detailed analysis of Regulatory Impact Statements about new laws and policies from the Govt’s first year. Laura: Our colleague David Williams' story analysing the Brexit possibilities of a referendum here on the Treaty.  -------------------- Raw Politics will be available every Friday here on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and YouTube too. Read more on Newsroom - https://newsroom.co.nz

This week on the Raw Politics podcast: The hikoi’s over, now for a half year of claim and counterclaim, dissent and debate. Plus: NZ speaks out of both sides of its mouth at COP29. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon did not meet the Treaty Principles Bill hikoi crowd, sees “nothing” of merit in the Act-proposed law but the Parliament his Government dominates will spend six months debating a “divisive” measure. That’s because he has accepted there needs to be “aeration” of people’s views on the Treaty, and his party acceded to Act’s pressure to include the Bill in the coalition agreement. So, having made this legislative bed, Luxon will now have to lie in it. Newsroom political editor Laura Walters and co-editor Tim Murphy look at how Luxon has played his cards so far, and how he might withstand an ongoing storm of criticism from Māori and others. For Act’s David Seymour, a possible nominee for most effective politician of the year before this latest play, the hearings on his Bill will finish just as he receives his coalition-deal-bauble of becoming Deputy Prime Minister until 2026. While he’s successfully grabbed the political ground this year, and will no doubt use the new position to continue pushing his policies and views, is there a risk that Act will repeat the sins of its own past in straying away from economic reform, personal freedoms, minimising the state and ending waste, and be diverted by race and stunts? For our second topic, Laura talks to regular Raw Politics panelist Marc Daalder who is reporting for Newsroom at the COP29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. He describes the pressures and expectations facing the 60,000 attendees in seeking answers on carbon finance and agreements to hold the world to the Paris targets. And we hear how the New Zealand climate minister Simon Watts has performed, with messages for an external audience that might not fly so easily to the domestic crowd. -------------------- This week's recommendations: Tim: A story from Stuff’s Tony Wall who was with the Mongrel Mob in Ōpōtiki on the eve of the ban on gang patches and consorting. A rare example of hearing direct from the gangsters on such a policy. Laura: Also crime-related, the NZ Herald’s Jared Savage profiled the new police commissioner Richard Chambers and revealed where he’d come from and his path to the top. -------------------- Raw Politics will be available every Friday here on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and YouTube too. Read more on Newsroom - https://newsroom.co.nz