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Everybody loves an origin story, this week’s podcast has two. Featuring clips from our first episode, before the podcast even had a name, with our first guest, Fred Goodwin, a.k.a. Mr. Risk, we talk about the formative years of both the medium and the messenger. As his retirement nears, we look back over Fred’s long career as a trader, salesperson and strategist, and the many lessons learned along the way, especially on how to think about markets at their extremes. In detailing how his contrarian outlook was formed, we bring a strong sense of history to bear in thoughts on the current trends in gold, the US dollar, the Japanese yen and global equities. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Extrapolating past results to predict future outcomes is typically futile. But what if we could isolate the most statistically relevant historic parallels towards making better forecasts? This week, we discuss the techniques of relevance based prediction and how more robust and successful outlooks can result from their use. Joining us are Megan Czasonis, Head of Portfolio Management Research at State Street Associates, and Michael Metcalfe, Global Head of Macro Strategy, to discuss recently-published research on these new methods used to forecast USD performance and what the current framework says about a dollar outlook over the medium term. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ron O’Hanley, Chairman and CEO of State Street, is back on the podcast for a wide‑ranging discussion, looking back on the main stories of 2025 and ahead to the forces shaping 2026. Ron and host Tim Graf explore whether risks that once loomed large have faded or simply changed form, and how growth, monetary policy, and AI‑led investment may influence markets in 2026. Asset allocation trends, private markets expansion and global currency dynamics feature, before concluding with a view of State Street’s strategic priorities — from AI adoption to digital assets and ETFs. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The start of the year is always a convenient time to think about consensus risk. Market watchers have all updated their forecasts and published their year ahead pieces. For the first episode of Street Signals in 2026, host Tim Graf, head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, carries on a tradition in going through a few of the most prominent consensus outlooks, mapping them to the message from our proprietary indicators and highlighting opportunities to go with or against the herd. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Just before Christmas, it's tradition for the Macro Strategy Team at State Street Markets to publish recommendations of the best things we've read, listened to or watched over the previous year. Common patterns often emerge and it is often the case that our choices are informed by our work analyzing macroeconomics and markets. But as you're about to hear, many of the choices have nothing to do with our day jobs. This year, we published our 12th edition of that list, available now on our Insights platform. This week's podcast is an audio summary of that document and a chance to bid you a very festive and happy holiday season, and wish you a Happy New Year! See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After getting the year-ahead views of the Macro Strategy team at State Street Markets last week (which you can listen to here), this week we hear from our FX Trading team. Questions of central bank independence and policy divergence top the list of risk factors for 2026, with implications of the AI investment cycle also factoring heavily into a macro outlook. We catch up with Peter Vincent, EMEA Head of Trading, for his thoughts on the state of the US labor market, inflation, policies of the Federal Reserve, ECB and Bank of Japan, and the other critical drivers for rates and FX around the world. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Macro Strategy Team at State Street Markets has published their top ideas for the year ahead. Will the tech stock bull run continue, or are recent, rising credit concerns enough to derail sentiment and valuations? Was 2025's dollar decline the beginning of a multi-year trend or is the buck on the brink of reversal? And are Japan's recent attempts at reflation about to stall or take the next step to success? We present a dozen ideas, across equities, fixed income and FX, all with an eye on which themes will continue into and emerge from 2026. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The signal events and dominant narratives of 2025 have not had quite the advertised effects where global current account and capital flow trends are concerned. As Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, notes, tariffs raise revenue for the US but so far its external position relative to Asia has, if anything, worsened. De-dollarization has been an eye-catching idea that still has little basis in fact. The expected revaluation of currencies relative to the USD has been much more limited in scope than one might appreciate. These and many other threads are pulled together in a globe-spanning episode this week.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, we dive into the nuanced world of macroeconomics and geopolitics. Elliot Hentov, Chief Macro Policy Strategist at State Street Investment Management, joins us to explore the state of deglobalization and the current status of geo-strategic competition in trade, technology, energy production and capital allocation. As we navigate the shocks of recent years and move towards a new equilibrium, the discussion focuses on the trade-offs embedded in each aspect of these competitions and the pressures on resources, carrying profound implications for consumers, investors and the political class. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Q3 earnings look like a prelude to a Santa rally, capping off another strong year for stocks. Sticking with a holiday theme, we can give thanks later this month for the outsized contribution of tech stocks to investor returns. But the AI narrative driving stocks in recent years is by now well understood and valuations look stretched. This week, we spend much of our time with Marija Veitmane, Head of Equity Strategy at State Street Markets, on where else to look for growth opportunities in global equity markets. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A stand-out macro trend of 2025, the weakness of the US dollar remains a focal point for a market that is still heavily short. Is the consensus risk ripe for a surprise or are further headwinds in store for the world's most widely traded currency? And how might macroeconomic developments in Japan, Europe and the UK add to or detract from the appeal for dollars? This week, we discuss these factors and the broader FX landscape for developed markets, with Lee Ferridge, Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas at State Street Markets. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Investors tend to underestimate the probability of tail risk events and assume market correlations will be stable. These are well-understood yet persistent blind spots that damage long-term portfolio performance. This week, we talk to David Dredge, CIO of Convex Strategies, as he shares his experiences and perspectives on the importance of overcoming these biases and incorporating convexity exposure, towards building greater resilience, maximizing compounding effects in return streams and optimizing for actual, rather than historic, returns. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Growth stocks are driving returns and economic dynamism, but also sparking discussions of whether we sit in bubble territory. Our guest this week, Matt Smith, portfolio manager at QSM Asset Management, a long/short hedge fund with a value focus, provides a timely reminder of how a consistent, fundamental-oriented approach can still offer compelling risk-adjusted returns. We also walk through current equity markets and how modest pullbacks in the AI trade could pose economic problems. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A shutdown of the US government raises myriad questions, particularly what economic impacts might be felt in the near-term and the bigger picture puzzle of how to assess the state of the economy when public data from government statistical agencies is delayed or unavailable. This week, we take a deep dive on those questions, with a focus on the September US CPI release as a test case for how to think about and use alternative data sets. We are joined by PriceStats co-founder Alberto Cavallo, global head of macro strategy Michael Metcalfe and senior strategist Noel Dixon for a wide-ranging discussion of the shutdown and how alternative data can complement public data. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Drawing on decades of experience as a policymaker, investor and trader, Mark Dow joins us this week, as we thread the currents driving the global macroeconomy together into a cohesive whole. From tariffs, inflation, US labor supply issues and Fed independence, to gold, the dollar, debt and deficits, with a side trip to Argentina in between, few stones are left unturned in this macro masterclass. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.