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Money supply in America is growing at its fastest pace since 2022, reaching 23 trillion dollars, and Felix Nikolas Prehn argues this matters more for stock prices than the economic headlines suggest. The episode sets out why high oil prices now benefit American shareholders rather than draining the economy, given that the United States produces roughly 66 per cent more crude than Saudi Arabia. It examines the collapse in real estate job openings, which halved between July and August to their lowest level in the available data, and explains how that weakness may give the Federal Reserve cover to stop raising rates. Prehn notes that 82 per cent of S and P 500 constituents are down even as the index rises, meaning printed money is flowing into a narrow band of stocks rather than lifting the broad market. He draws on the AAII sentiment survey, where 48 per cent of respondents expect lower prices, and historical episodes in which extreme bearishness preceded strong rallies. In this episode: 00:00 Scary headlines each have a second half the news omits 02:01 America is the largest oil producer and benefits from high prices 04:06 Oil company fundamentals and cash flows are improving 05:07 82 per cent of S and P 500 stocks are down despite index gains 06:37 Skilled money follows the trend rather than buying and holding 07:38 Real estate job openings halved to their lowest recorded level 09:10 Weak housing data may give the Fed cover to ease off rates 10:11 The stock market is not an economic thermometer Sources mentioned: U.S. Energy Information Administration (oil production data), https://www.eia.gov Federal Reserve M2 money supply data, https://www.federalreserve.gov Bureau of Labour Statistics (job openings data), https://www.bls.gov American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment survey, https://www.aaii.com Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

Financial repression is the mechanism by which governments keep interest rates below the rate of inflation, quietly transferring wealth from savers to the state. In this episode Felix Nikolas Prehn traces the policy from a recent presidential admission that inflation will pay off the national debt very rapidly to a Bank for International Settlements study showing the same method erased 2 to 3 per cent of GDP in debt each year after the Second World War. He sets out why the four conventional options for addressing 40 trillion dollars of US debt, raising taxes, cutting spending, defaulting or debasing the currency, leave only debasement as politically survivable. He examines the widening K-shaped economy, presents an hours of work index now at 341 compared with 100 in 2000, and warns that forcing rates down risks eroding the dollar's reserve status if confidence breaks. In this episode: 00:00 President states inflation will pay off the debt 02:34 The full quote from the magazine interview 04:11 Treasury secretary says the US can grow out of 40 trillion 05:14 Financial repression defined and explained 06:16 Post-war debt erased by holding rates below inflation 06:46 Four options for 40 trillion and why only one survives 10:41 Why interest rates must be forced below inflation 15:40 Hours of work index at 341 versus 100 in 2000 Sources mentioned: Time magazine interview with the president Bank for International Settlements study on financial repression (2011), https://www.bis.org CNBC interview (2016), https://www.cnbc.com Washington Post interview, https://www.washingtonpost.com Alan Greenspan quote on printing money Federal Reserve wealth distribution data, https://www.federalreserve.gov Ray Dalio on beautiful deleveraging Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

Global bond markets start to fracture at the same time gold takes a sharp hit, and we connect those headlines into one coherent debt story. We walk through why gold can drop at the start of a crisis, how financial repression quietly erodes purchasing power, and what to look at in your portfolio before the herd catches up.  • Japan’s record 30-year bond yield as the first domino for global borrowing costs  • France-led European bond selloff spreading to major economies as the “safe room” warms up too  • US debt interest costs surging while the “strong economy” narrative fails to explain synchronized global yield rises  • Three mechanical reasons gold falls even when risk rises: stronger dollar, crowded positioning, margin and stop-loss cascades  • Paper gold versus physical metal and why screen prices can mislead during liquidity stress  • Financial repression explained in plain English: rates held below inflation as a quiet tax on savings  • “Hours of work” inflation lens that reframes what an income can actually buy over time  • Practical moves: avoid panic selling, resize positions, and filter holdings by dependence on cheap debt  • Why gold often sells off first in crises, then rallies once money printing accelerates  Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

Bond yields are climbing simultaneously in Japan, Europe and the United States, and Felix Nikolas Prehn argues these are not separate headlines but a single debt crisis unfolding across the developed world. Japan's 30-year yield has reached an all-time high while carrying debt of roughly 260 per cent of output. France's bond selloff is spreading to Italy, Belgium and Greece, and even German yields are rising. In America, annual interest on federal debt has reached 1.25 trillion dollars. Gold has fallen alongside these moves, which Prehn attributes to dollar strength, a crowded trade and forced selling through margin calls on the paper market. He traces the same pattern in the 1970s and 2008, when gold dropped early in a crisis before repricing sharply higher once money printing accelerated. Broad money supply is now growing at its fastest pace in four years, and Prehn concludes that governments intend to inflate the debt away through sustained financial repression. In this episode: 00:00 Japan 30-year bond yield hits all-time high 03:17 Europe's bond selloff spreads from France to Italy, Belgium and Greece 04:19 US debt interest reaches 1.25 trillion dollars a year 05:28 Three reasons gold is falling despite the debt crisis 09:37 Financial repression explained and the plan to inflate debt away 12:13 Hours of work index shows real purchasing power has tripled in cost 14:03 Historical pattern of gold dropping before repricing higher 16:08 How to assess portfolio exposure through a debt lens Sources mentioned: Bank of Japan, https://www.boj.or.jp/en/ Alan Greenspan Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

Government debt levels in the United States and other major economies have reached a point where the only politically viable exit is sustained inflation funded by money printing, according to Felix Nikolas Prehn, economist and former investment banker. The episode traces how the US used the same approach after the Second World War and in the 1970s, and how Japan has run a version of it since the 1990s. Felix examines the rapid growth in M2 money supply, the concentration of stock market gains in a narrow band of AI related companies, and the risk of an eventual correction when capital spending overshoots. He discusses central bank gold purchases as a response to the freezing of Russian reserves, the limited alternatives to the dollar, and the likelihood that AI will prove deflationary over time but not before a speculative bubble bursts. His conclusion is that holding cash is a near certain loss and that assets, despite their risks, remain the rational choice. In this episode: 02:00 Negative economic signals but why stocks can still rise 05:20 M2 money supply growth and government stimulus 10:37 Inflation as the only tool to reduce government debt 14:14 Hours of work index and real cost of assets 17:43 AI spending bubble and the risk of a sharp correction 25:02 Japan as a template for US debt management 30:52 Central bank gold buying after Russian asset freezes 35:14 Dollar dominance and stablecoins as a prop for demand Sources mentioned: Federal Reserve M2 money supply data, https://www.federalreserve.gov AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) sentiment survey, https://www.aaii.com Prehn Institute Jim Rogers Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

We lay out what it means when a US president says inflation can “pay off” the national debt and why that turns savers into the funding source. We break down financial repression, the deadline created by high rates, and how to choose the side of the trade that benefits when dollars buy less.  • the full quote and why it signals policy intent  • why politicians avoid tax rises, spending cuts, and default  • financial repression as rates below inflation  • how savers quietly cover the bill through lost purchasing power  • the post World War II precedent for inflating debt away  • why today’s bond yields and refinancing create a ticking clock  • how forced rate cuts change markets and portfolios  • checking inflation exposure and spotting “zombie” stocks  • who wins and loses in a K-shaped economy  • the risk of weakening dollar trust and capital flight  Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

Scary headlines sound like a sell signal, but I walk through the “second half” of each story and why it can point to opportunity instead of panic. I connect oil, housing, Fed policy, investor fear, and money supply to one simple question: which way is the money moving? • high oil prices as a potential tailwind for US producers and energy supply chains  • why the biggest winner from expensive oil can be America  • using quality signals like revenue, profit, and cash flow instead of buying “oil” broadly  • S&P 500 concentration risk and why most constituents can be down while the index looks fine  • why professional money follows flows and trends rather than holding forever  • housing as the first place rate pressure breaks and how that affects Fed decisions  • why the stock market can rise during ugly economic periods and fall during strong job markets  • AAII investor bearishness as a contrarian indicator when fear gets extreme  • M2 money supply growth, liquidity, and why cash can melt under inflation  • practical mindset shift from “how’s the economy” to “where’s the money going” Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

We connect the sudden jump in US mortgage rates to the bond market and lay out why the Fed can look tough while inflation pressures keep building underneath. We also explain how a change to the PCE inflation calculation and quiet Treasury liquidity moves can create a growing gap between official numbers and real-life bills.  • how the 10-year Treasury yield drives 30-year mortgage rates  • why investors, not the Fed, set the price of borrowing for homes  • Bill Ackman’s argument that higher rates can raise prices through embedded financing costs  • how AI spending and supply shortages can keep demand hot despite rate hikes  • why buy and hold index fund logic gets harder when rates and prices rise together  • what “follow the money” means and how institutions adjust positioning  • how PCE methodology changes can lower reported inflation without lowering prices  • why long-run inflation acts like a quiet transfer from savers to big borrowers  • what the Treasury General Account signals about hidden liquidity support  Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

We connect a 44-year low in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to a larger setup that looks like manufactured calm today and a harsher inflation bill later. We also trace how debt buybacks, private-market megavaluations, and stock market concentration can quietly shift risk onto ordinary savers while “skilled money” positions for the next phase.  • strategic petroleum reserve drawdowns as a tool to suppress oil and diesel prices  • why “refilling with Venezuelan oil” doesn’t solve the near-term problem  • the inflation trap logic: push rates down while inflation stays higher  • Treasury buybacks explained as debt support that functions like money printing  • why private AI valuations matter to public-market investors  • index fund concentration risk when a few names dominate  • how to “follow the money” using filings and insider behavior  • examples of positioning toward cash-flow businesses and away from crowded trades  • why central bank gold buying matters for currency risk and purchasing power  You can grab yourself a free ticket for that at inflationtrap.com. Go and grab a seat while you're thinking about it, because there'll be no replay. If you're doing that, write Thrive in the comments down below.  Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

We lay out why a Fed rate hike during an oil shock can squeeze the economy without fixing the real cause of inflation. We connect the dots between supply-side inflation, government debt refinancing, and why central banks are quietly buying gold while cash holders fall into an inflation trap.  • why oil-driven inflation behaves differently than demand-driven inflation  • how higher diesel and fertilizer costs flow into food prices and the wider economy  • what stagflation means and why the 1970s still matters  • why rate hikes can punish borrowers while prices stay high  • what the long-term charts say about the dollar, home prices, and gold  • how refinancing trillions in Treasuries constrains how “tough” the Fed can be  • why we call the quarter-point hike theater when debt costs are rising  • what happens if bond buyers disappear and the Fed has to step in  • why central banks accumulating gold is a signal worth watching  • how the cash trap quietly erodes savings and retirement plans  • why we avoid panic selling and focus on knowing what you actually own  Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

A sulfuric acid export ban sounds boring until we trace how it can choke fertilizer supply, reduce food output and collide with $100 plus oil to drive a sharp inflation shock. We connect that real-world squeeze to dollar weaponization, hedge fund leverage in Treasuries and why professional money is positioning around gold and volatility.  • Russia and China export cuts as a fertilizer supply trigger  • Why sulfur and the Strait of Hormuz matter beyond oil  • The double whammy of energy inflation plus food inflation  • How governments respond when food prices spark unrest  • Dollar weaponization and why countries move toward gold  • Hedge funds’ $2.2 trillion Treasury exposure and leverage risk  • How forced bond selling can push up rates and hit the economy  • Why cash loses purchasing power in long inflation cycles  • Practical framing for building a personal 90 day plan  Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

We connect a worrying divergence between falling productivity and falling consumer confidence to the biggest AI spending boom on record, and we explain why that threatens the stock market’s most crowded trades. We also lay out why central banks are buying gold in size, how a gold-linked BRICS settlement “unit” could shift global money flows, and what a 1940s-style debt playbook would mean for everyday purchasing power.  • Bank of America’s productivity and confidence chart breaking down together  • $1.5 trillion spent on AI with little economy-wide productivity gain  • AI leaders calling to slow development and what that implies for timelines  • S&P 500 concentration risk with gains driven by a small set of AI stocks  • Central banks buying record gold despite a pullback and rate headlines  • BRICS “unit” as a settlement system backed partly by gold  • Federal Reserve debt buying compared with the 1940s and the inflation risk  • Three mistakes to avoid: calling the gold pullback “the end”, assuming index funds equal diversification, waiting for headlines. Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks

Support the show 👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks