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Jorge Molinero hosts June Goh and Michael Ryan as Iran’s tanker attacks escalate ahead of US elections. They cover Basra discounts, Aramco term talks, China’s product export quotas, and whether the TD3C sell-off is overdone. Chapters:  (01:52) Hormuz, sanctions and US politics: Iran’s attacks are rising and changing shape, and Washington may hold off until November 3. (11:23) Crude: Aramco term talks and Gulf discounts: Stalled term talks and steep spot discounts show the Gulf barrel is moving at a cost. (16:25) Refining margins and China export quotas: Asian margins flipped positive on weaker Gulf diffs and freight, with China quotas supporting light products. (24:15) Freight: TD7 and TC14 turn: Forties strength pulled Afromaxes out of the Atlantic, and TC14 charterers stepped in to set a near-term bottom. (26:36) Gasoline, Singapore 92 and NAFTA: Gasoline stays soft, but naphtha stays firm as TC5 keeps rallying and LR1 tonnage stays tight. (36:03) LPG: US stocks and the butane premium: US propane stocks sit near record highs, but butane is tightening as blenders keep barrels inland.

Felipe Elink-Schuurman, Jay Maroo, Abhishek Kumar and Jorge Molinero unpack Iran's shift from blocking Hormuz to policing it, mounting strikes on Saudi and Russian energy infrastructure, a bearish TD3C freight call, Russian diesel exports returning, and tight Naphtha and LPG markets heading into winter.   Try Leonidas AI: https://www.spartacommodities.com/leonidas/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=leonidas_ai_launch_2026q3   (00:04:47) Escalation Risk Into Midterms: US troop buildup, Houthi strikes on Riyadh and Aramco, and Trump-Netanyahu strike talk ahead of elections. (00:13:04) Russia's Diesel Bandaid: Putin-Trump OFAC deal adds export barrels, but refinery damage still caps Russia's real capacity. (00:18:47) Freight Tops Out: Jay turns bearish on TD3C as weak refining margins cut appetite for expensive crude freight. (00:29:40) Diesel Floods Back: EU SPR releases and recovering Russian exports could flip diesel from tight to oversupplied by December. (00:43:18) Naphtha Tight, LPG Strong: Jorge flags scarce naphtha, firm East-West arbs, and tightening butane as winter demand builds.

Felipe Elink-Schuurman, Michael Ryan, Aaron Kildow and Nikolas Plonski unpack Hormuz exports rebounding near pre-war levels despite daily tanker attacks, VLCC rates near $1.2 million a day, Trump's shelved diesel export ban, EU and US SPR releases, and why gas oil cracks still look bullish into Q1 2027.   Try Leonidas AI: https://www.spartacommodities.com/leonidas/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=leonidas_ai_launch_2026q3   (00:00:20) Hormuz Holds, Barely: Crude exports near pre-war levels even as tanker attacks continue daily and Iran talks go nowhere. (00:02:50) VLCC Rates Go Vertical: Freight fixtures surge out of the Gulf as VLCC rates jump from $80k to $1.2 million a day. (00:12:54) Ukraine Hits Russian Refining: Lukoil's Volgograd refinery and a Transneft hub get struck, cutting roughly 5% of Russian capacity. (00:15:06) Distillates and the SPR Release: EU and G7 SPR releases crush gas oil spreads, but Nikolas still likes Q1 2027 cracks. (00:25:18) Freight and Crude Trade Calls: Michael turns bearish TC2 spreads, Aaron flags a $25 a barrel freight bill eating North Sea margins. (00:31:03) Gasoline Holds the Line: RBOB stays firm on hurricane risk and tight US octane, with ARA still the Atlantic's key supplier.

Host June Goh welcomes Sparta colleagues James Noel-Beswick and Jorge Molinero to unpack the diesel crisis: why global stocks have hit 10-year lows, how geopolitics and refinery outages are compounding the squeeze, and where traders should look to position next. Try Leonidas AI: https://www.spartacommodities.com/leonidas/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=leonidas_ai_launch_2026q3 Chapters: (03:59) Red Diesel and the US Response: Washington explores red diesel sales and fuel tax cuts as diesel prices hit $6 a gallon. EU pressure intensifies as the White House threatens export bans. (04:00) Middle East Flows and Supply Reality: Saudi East-West pipeline back online, but production still far below capacity. Global crude rebounding, but refined products remain dangerously tight. (06:35) China's Policy Pivot: Crude import quotas flat. Product exports suspended. The refinery outage crisis spreads—India's MRPL fires, potential strikes at US Gulf refineries. (08:47) Light Distillates and Freight Gasoline stocks at 12-year lows. Naphtha weakness, but gasoline holding firm. LPG tight. Freight—specifically TC5 from Europe—up 65% in one month. (15:38) The Diesel Armageddon: Singapore diesel cracks at seasonal highs. All regular diesel arbs into Singapore closed. European pricing bucking the trend. Heating oil cracks exploding. (20:23) Trade Calls and Crude Outlook: James makes the bull case for Q1 heating oil cracks (at $90 per barrel). June covers the US SPR release and Mars basis under pressure through year-end.

Felipe Elink-Schuurman, June Goh and Michael Ryan unpack the potential US diesel export ban, the Saudi pipeline attack and Russian refinery strikes reshaping crude flows. June covers the diesel, gasoline and crude fallout if the ban lands, while Michael maps the freight rush already underway on TC14 and VLCCs. Try Leonidas AI: https://www.spartacommodities.com/leonidas/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=leonidas_ai_launch_2026q3 Chapters:  (00:31) Trump's diesel ban threat: the backdrop: Trump backs a full or partial US diesel export ban; midterms, low stocks and Hormuz disruption drive the panic. (03:09) Russia strikes and Saudi's pipeline scramble: Ukrainian drones knock out Russian refineries as Aramco reroutes 14 million barrels after an Iraq pipeline attack. (09:51) HOGO whiplash and the diesel ban math: October Hogo swaps swing violently as June maps the price path if a 90 day export ban hits. (13:49) Freight scramble: TC14, MRs and the LR2 dirty trade: Michael on the rush to fix diesel cargoes, TC14 risk, and MRs turning dirty if US exports stop. (22:14) Fuel oil, refining margins and China's holiday lull: June and Hoa on high sulfur fuel support, razor thin refining margins and China's Golden Week pullback. (29:34) Gasoline's own diesel story: ARA undercuts the Gulf Coast, TC2 rallies and East-West Q4/Q1 spreads look primed for a repeat.

Felipe Elink-Schuurman, Jay Maroo, Aaron Kildow and James Noel-Beswick break down the Petroline pipeline strike forcing Saudi crude back through Hormuz, freight rates hitting record highs, and diesel cracks near $100/bbl. The real constraint now is products, not crude, with no clear sign of demand destruction. Try Leonidas AI: https://www.spartacommodities.com/leonidas/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=leonidas_ai_launch_2026q3 Chapters:  (01:40) Petroline strike and the Hormuz squeeze: Saudi's Yanbu pipeline takes a direct hit, Houthis seize Mocha, and barrels are forced back through Hormuz. (06:25) Crude: Iraq's discount and Saudi's pincer: Iraq sells at steep discounts to move barrels via ADNOC as Saudi crude gets squeezed on every side. (18:40) Freight: the Hormuz premium blows out: Rastanura to Ningbo nears $1 million a day as owners charge up to $500k extra to transit Hormuz. (34:25) Fuel oil: Saudi's feedstock problem: Lost Red Sea refining capacity tightens hi-5 further, with LSFO diverted into conversion units instead of blending. (38:53) Diesel: record cracks, closed arbs: Gasoil cracks near $100/bbl and Asian spreads hit decade highs, yet most European and Asian arbs stay shut. (47:29) Gasoline and the missing demand destruction: Every signal says sell, but nobody's finding the demand destruction that should be capping this rally.

James Noel-Beswick hosts Nikolas Plonski and Jorge Molinero as Iran-US escalation, Houthi attacks on Mokka and Russian refinery strikes push Brent through $100. They cover record US diesel margins, a widening TI-Brent, gasoline strength in Singapore, an LPG price spike, and a split CPP freight market. Try Leonidas AI: https://www.spartacommodities.com/leonidas/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=leonidas_ai_launch_2026q3 Chapters:  (00:42) Headlines: Iran, Hormuz and the road to $100 Brent Tanker strikes, Houthi advances and a widening danger zone push Brent through the century mark in eight sessions. (06:16) Crude: WAF and South America fill the Hormuz gap WAF, Brazilian and Argentinian grades price into Asia as AG flows shrink; trade calls short WTI-Brent, long Q1 Dubai miles. (09:52) US products: distillate and gasoline hit record highs Managed money net length in RBOB and heating oil reaches multi-year highs as US retail diesel prints an all-time high. (19:10) Middle distillates: Singapore diesel near records, jet stays bearish European and Singapore diesel cracks surge on Russian outages while jet regrades slip as aviation demand fades. (22:34) Gasoline and naphtha: record East-West and an LPG shock Singapore 92 rallies, naphtha East-West hits a seasonal record and Aramco's OSP hike sends LPG and pet-chem margins swinging. (30:15) Freight: a split CPP market and tight VLCCs East of Suez tonnage runs 50% below average while the US Gulf list balloons; VLCC and TD20 markets stay bullish.

Felipe Elink Schuurman, Abhishek Kumar, Michael Ryan and Jay Maroo cover the Iran-US escalation and Kirishi refinery strike, then break down a diesel market pulling barrels from Singapore to Houston, a gasoline barge spike to $2.90, TC14 freight jumping 45 points, and three fresh crude trade ideas. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=marketoutlook_hub&utm_content=podcast Chapters:  (00:39) Geopolitics: Iran strikes back, Russia's refineries burn US hits Iran, Iran strikes Saudi VLCCs, Kirishi refinery shut, Russia now imports diesel, gasoline and jet. (04:55) Middle distillates: Rotterdam pulls barrels from everywhere Diesel ARBs open from Yanbu to Singapore, a rare Korean MR heads to Rotterdam as Europe scrambles. (17:25) Jet and freight: TC14 jumps 45 points in a day Jet underperforms diesel on rising Asian exports while owners chase the diesel ARB, spiking US Gulf freight. (19:46) Gasoline: barges spike to 290, Houston flips cheapest European barges surge after a shaky start, Houston beats Singapore to West Coast Mexico for the first time. (35:00) Crude and trade ideas: Mars over WTI, Dubai backwardation Dubai tightness signals supply risk, not demand, Jay's three trades bet on east-west and sweet-sour spreads.

Jay Maroo hosts Aaron Kildow and Nikolas Plonski as Hormuz de-escalation talk collides with a fresh tanker strike. Aaron unpacks the US SPR's final barrels and a collapsing TI-Brent spread, while Nikolas breaks down gasoline RINs volatility and a blown-out diesel east-west spread. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=marketoutlook_hub&utm_content=podcast Chapters: (00:42) Geopolitics: Hormuz thaw meets sanctions and a tanker strike Oman-Iran deal signals de-escalation but OFAC sanctions widen and a Kuwaiti tanker gets struck. (05:10) US crude: SPR nearly dry, wrong barrels at the wrong time Only 9-10 million SPR barrels remain, mostly sweet, just as diesel season needs sour crude. (12:36) Hormuz hypothetical: what a reopening does to market share Japan and Korea's shift to US crude signals a lasting market share battle if Hormuz reopens. (18:23) Fuel oil and gasoline: feedstock squeeze, RINs whipsaw Venezuelan barrels weigh on Atlantic HSFO while EPA's RIN waiver rumours rattle the gasoline TAR. (28:14) Diesel's east-west spread blows out to minus $90 Chinese buying may be behind the widest east-west diesel spread on record, hinting at a demand shift.

Felipe Elink Schuurman is joined by James Noel-Beswick and Michael Ryan as Trump threatens Oman and squeezes Iran's UAE-run cash flows. Russian refinery strikes cut runs to a 24-year low, driving diesel cracks past $100 a barrel, while European freight rates collapse to six-month lows. Chapters: (01:28) Hormuz standoff and Trump's threats to Oman Trump threatens crushing sanctions and to bomb Oman as Iran's crude flows keep diversifying away from the strait. (07:27) Crude freight: Suezmax and VLCC rates skyrocket Suezmax and VLCC rates surge as owners chase Red Sea and India demand, squeezing Atlantic tonnage. (09:12) Russia's refinery crisis and diesel's record breakout Drone strikes cut Russian runs to a 24-year low as diesel cracks and spreads hit record highs. (14:02) Diesel flows: Latin America pulls barrels, Europe freight collapses US diesel barrels head to Brazil replacing lost Russian supply, while European MR freight hits six-month lows. (24:02) Gasoline and naphtha: all-time highs meet a pause TAA arb collapses and TC2 freight halves as gasoline touches record cracks and naphtha arbs stay shut. (31:02) Macro: dollar weakness fuels the commodity hedge trade A six-month dollar low points to macro funds buying commodities as an inflation and currency hedge.

June Goh hosts this week with guest Jay Maroo, as Iran hardens its military stance and Hormuz risk lingers. They cover IEA and OPEC's diverging demand calls, ADNOC's transponder-dark shuttle tankers beating the blockade, a stubbornly wide Brent-Dubai EFS, and a tightening Atlantic diesel market. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=marketoutlook_hub&utm_content=podcast   Chapters:    (00:42) Hormuz and Russia: sanctions escalate Two vessel attacks near Hormuz, Iran's military turns hawkish, and a Senate bill threatens 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers. (04:20) IEA vs OPEC: the demand gap IEA turns more bearish on demand while OPEC stays positive, a 2.2 million barrel a day gap. (08:29) The great milk run: ADNOC beats the blockade ADNOC's dark shuttle tankers push UAE output above pre-war levels while Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi stay shut in. (11:20) Fuel oil and crude: the tightening squeeze Singapore fuel oil stays trapped in a tightening loop, ADNOC's tender drops a grade, and WAF premiums look shaky. (17:04) Middle distillates: refinery outages bite Refinery outages tighten Atlantic diesel further, yet Sikka's jet arb into Europe stays wide open. (21:22) Light ends: EBOB strength spreads west Low Rhine water lifts EBOB, US Gulf gasoline exports swell, and Singapore mogas turns bullish for September.

June Goh hosts Neil Crosby and Abhishek Kumar as Hormuz talks flip on and off again, smashing gasoline cracks. They cover Iranian tanker pileups, China's bigger export quotas, Russian diesel exemptions, Murban futures' wind-down, and a bullish fuel oil case into September. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=marketoutlook_hub&utm_content=podcast Chapters:  (00:43) Hormuz headlines: the on-off deal traders can't trade Iranian tankers pile up, Houthis strike again, and the binary Hormuz signal looks set to drag past the midterms. (08:21) EIA and China's quota puzzle US crude exports crash from 5.5m to 3.5m b/d as China lifts August export quotas, but quotas aren't shipments. (15:00) Gasoline cracks get smashed EBOB and RBOB spreads unwind hard on fading Hormuz risk and stabilising US stocks. Still no clean trade here. (22:21) Distillates and jet split east and west Asian gas oil rally stalls as China supply returns, while European diesel stays deep in deficit on Russian export curbs. (29:46) Crude quickfire: Murban futures die, Aramco cuts OSPs Ice Murban winds down, Aramco trims Arab Light 50 cents, and West African crude wins on Hormuz avoidance. (33:17)* Fuel oil: the Cape reroute bites Thirty extra days round the Cape means lower runs and less residue, a bullish setup for 0.5% sulfur into September.

June Goh hosts Abhishek Kumar and Jorge Molinero as Brent swings from $100 to $85 to $93 in a week. They cover Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure, Suez rerouting costs, a tightening diesel market, and diverging crude premiums across Hormuz and Red Sea choke points. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=marketoutlook_hub&utm_content=podcast  Chapters:  (00:35) Oil's Wild Week: Houthi Attacks and the Yanbu Reroute Brent swung from $100 to $85 to $93 in days. Abhishek breaks down Jizan refinery strikes and Suez rerouting costs. (07:22) Rhine Crisis and Record-Tight US Barrels Kaub gauge nears critical levels as US crude and gasoline stocks hit multi-year lows despite record refinery runs. (09:42) Gasoline and Naphtha: East Beats West East-West spread flips as European E10 blending reopens and the TAR arb into PAD1 looks set to widen. (14:10) Diesel Squeeze and the Freight Spike Behind It TC14 rates jump on tonne mile demand as Jazan's outage and a possible Russian export ban extension tighten Europe further. (20:55) Crude Flows Rewrite Around Two Choke Points Murban and Melbourne premiums diverge as Asian refiners route around both Hormuz and the Red Sea. (24:15) Fuel Oil: HSFO Eases, VLSFO Stays Tight August HSFO cracks pull back from highs while VLSFO cracks sit near $23 on limited medium crude supply.

Houthi attacks on Saudi vessels loading at Yanbu leave seven million barrels of crude searching for a route. Felipe Elink Schuurman, James Noel-Beswick and Jay Maroo on Suezmax freight, why diesel still looks undervalued, and the crude spreads with room to run. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox.  Chapters:  (01:11) Risk stacks up: Houthis, Yanbu and CPC — Attacks on Saudi vessels at Yanbu and 1.5m b/d of Kazakh crude offline stack the risk higher. (03:48) Seven million barrels with nowhere to go — Yanbu crude needs a new route north via Suez or around the Cape. Costlier, slower, tighter. (08:44) Diesel's worst-case setup is building — Jody confirms weak EU demand; diesel still looks undervalued with Russia, Mideast and Yanbu supply all at risk. (19:01) Singapore rips, Europe waits — Singapore spreads break every moving average; Gulf Coast dominates as Europe eyes September arbs. (23:34) The bull case for Brent spreads — Brent Dubai and CPC keep the long alive, but the cleaner trade sits in freight. (27:27) Freight: the trade with conviction — Suezmax TD20 and TD3C as Yanbu and Houthi inefficiencies ripple through shipping.

Felipe Elink Schuurman, Neil Crosby and Jay Maroo on the collapsed Iran ceasefire, Brent's jump from 72 to 85, and the market fatigue no one's pricing. Diesel cracks and gasoline spreads hit records while crude stays quiet, with the Russian diesel ban now double the Hormuz problem. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=audio&utm_campaign=podcast Chapters (01:41) The ceasefire is dead, and the market is tired MOU collapse, escalation back, Brent at 85, but fatigue means no one wants to price the risk. (12:16) Diesel: the Russian ban that dwarfs Hormuz Russian diesel exports near 1m bpd gone, cracks and spreads bullish, Hogo the solver into Europe. (21:52) Crude: enough for now, bullish later Asians scramble for WTI and SPR barrels, Europe long crude, WTI-Brent widens, Brent bullish eventually. (29:49) Gasoline: cracks at ten-year highs Spreads and cracks at records, New York arbs shut for August, Singapore spreads the trade to watch.