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In this episode, Nik welcomes back Matt Dines to talk through where we are in the credit cycle and why he thinks we are in the late innings. Matt walks through the names he watches widening every day, from Oracle and CoreWeave to JetBlue bonds trading at 61 cents on the dollar, and explains why record high yield deals from SoftBank and Paramount Skydance mean companies are issuing with a gun to their head rather than by choice. He argues that a QE response would be the wrong prescription, because the disease is tight resource markets rather than a purely financial problem. Nik and Matt close on what a default wave would mean for bitcoin. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Demian explains TBL’s analysis of why bitcoin is holding up even as liquidity hit its lowest point of the cycle. He covers how the TBL Liquidity Index works, what a red dot actually signals, and why bitcoin’s own supply and demand have shifted in its favor as the sellers ran out and more than 70% of supply moved into profit. He closes on the three things that would need to ease for liquidity to turn. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik explains the bitcoin power law and why he believes it points to a million dollar bitcoin in the early 2030s. He walks through bitcoin’s orders of magnitude, four years to go from $1,000 to $10,000 and eight years to reach $100,000, and why the next zero may take a similar stretch. Nik covers where the power law comes from, the exponent Giovanni Santostasi solved for, and why power laws show up in nature, from the education level of a city to how much an elephant eats. He also explains why bitcoin trading below the bottom band of its power law has historically been a good place to accumulate. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik explains what he thinks is the easiest way to introduce bitcoin to new investors, which comes down to returns. He compares bitcoin against stocks, bonds, and gold across three, five, seven, and ten year windows, showing where bitcoin trails and where it separates, including the five year stretch where gold and stocks both beat it. Nik then walks through the HODL Cave, which plots returns by holding period and shows that nobody who has held bitcoin for six years has ever lost money, with median returns climbing above 100x at ten years. He closes on why he expects forward returns in the 30s rather than the 60s. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik covers bitcoin losing the $82,700 level he had been tracking, falling 3% for a second straight day. He explains why he is watching 71 to 74,000 as the next support, why a negative liquidity environment mutes bitcoin's returns, and why the dollar squeeze building through October is a main reason liquidity is reading negative. Nik also covers gold testing a trend line it has held since 2025, why the ten-year yield may finally be catching a bid after a strong auction, why the twos tens curve is the chart he watches most closely, and why French bond spreads are back at 2011 levels. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik walks through TBL Pulse and the macro charts he watches every day, starting with why bitcoin is climbing while liquidity drains. He explains why the TBL liquidity index has fallen close to the midline that separates expansion from contraction, why rate of change matters more than the level, and why bitcoin performing well in a negative liquidity environment tells him it has entered an early stage of recovery after a deep capitulation. Nik also covers the move index and the dollar, the Thucydides trap and the US China breakup behind the global system rupture, why credit spreads explain the stock market, and why he is watching for a European central bank print. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik asks how bitcoin is outperforming both gold and the dollar in the middle of a global bond crisis. He covers why rising yields, bond volatility, and a stronger dollar all point to tighter liquidity, then turns to the French German bond spread and why a move of this size has only happened twice in thirty years. Nik explains where he thinks the European Central Bank would have to step in, why falling oil could ironically rescue the French bond market, and why this crisis may be the opening the digital euro needed. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this Global Macro Update, Nik covers the blowout in French government bond yields against German bunds and why he sees a sovereign debt crisis developing in France. He explains why a falling euro suggests Europe is defending its bond market rather than its currency, and why he is watching for trial balloons of a European money creation event from the ECB or the Bank for International Settlements. Nik then walks through the charts TBL members use most, the MOVE index, the dollar index, and the yield curve, and introduces the new crossover analysis combining TBL liquidity with Johan Bergman's state grid to gauge how much confidence a given signal deserves. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this Global Macro Update, Nik walks through a chart pack of more than 100 charts, starting with the bitcoin gold ratio charging back above 20 while global bond markets remain in meltdown. He shows why bitcoin versus gold has tracked bitcoin versus the dollar for its entire life, why treasuries lost more than 27% of their value over five years, and why bitcoin's realized volatility keeps compressing as it gets absorbed into the financial system. Nik explains why that compression should pull institutional allocations higher over time, why the Fed began hiking this month into rising yields worldwide, and why he expects a massive money creation event out of Europe before the United States. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik welcomes back James Van Straten of CoinDesk for a conversation on the global bond meltdown and the fiscal crisis building in the United Kingdom. James explains why he thinks central banks have lost control, walking through the Bank of England's reversal on gilt sales and why moving that debt to the Treasury does not make it disappear. He covers why the UK housing market has gone no bid as short-term mortgages reset, and why the Bank of England will eventually have to hike to defend the pound. Nik and James also discuss bitcoin's rally and why AI may be the most deflationary force either has seen. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik covers bitcoin's move to $87,000 and why breaking $82,700, the post-bear-market high from May, means the bear market that defined 2026 is over. He zooms all the way into one-minute candles to show the short squeeze that took price up more than $1,500 in about 100 seconds, and explains why that resistance level should now act as support. Nik also covers why the four-year cycle theory keeps getting buried, how financialization has compressed bitcoin's volatility, and the breakout on the bitcoin versus gold ratio. He closes on Johan Bergman's state grid, where trend is turning up while valuation is still cheap. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik welcomes Stu Lackey and Jon Gordon of SOUND HSA for a conversation on the fiscal side of American healthcare. Nik opens with the charts: almost $4 trillion of the just over $5 trillion the government collects in tax revenue now goes to Medicare, Social Security, and other health spending. Stu and Jon explain how the system got here, why the Medicare trust fund is projected to run out in 2032, and why commercial insurance pays far more than Medicare for identical care. They also cover the solutions they see emerging, from direct primary care and cash pricing to holding bitcoin in a health savings account. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this Global Macro Update, Nik covers the global bond meltdown and what happens to Liquidity if the Fed hikes rates. He starts with bitcoin losing the trend line he had been tracking and slipping from $80,000 back to $76,000, then turns to crude oil above $106 a barrel and why the energy shock, including declining refinery capacity and diesel prices, is repricing inflation expectations worldwide. Nik explains why yields are spiking in the United Kingdom, France, and Japan, why he thinks a crisis response is more likely to come from Europe than the United States, and why a strengthening dollar challenges Europe in what he calls the global capital war. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this Global Macro Update, Nik explains why he believes the current global bond meltdown and liquidity contraction will end in a massive global money print. He walks through the global balance sheet, $600 trillion in real assets, $600 trillion in financialized assets, and $600 trillion of banking balance sheet, set against $350 trillion of debt and only $120 trillion of global GDP, and why that math makes repayment in today's dollars impossible. Nik covers why he expects the print in the United States to come from commercial bank lending rather than Fed QE, why the ECB and the Bank of England will have to print at the policy level, and what all of it means for bitcoin. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik explains why he thinks this week's inflation data is the most important economic release of the year, with PPI and CPI landing days before the Fed's September 16 decision. He covers why treasury bills lead the Fed and have been pricing hikes since May, how Kevin Warsh ending forward guidance leaves the market guessing into every meeting, and why core CPI running at 0.2% a month makes an immediate hike unlikely while a 0.4% print would change everything. Nik also lays out why he believes the Fed will hold, what a hiking cycle would do to liquidity, and the three sources he recommends for understanding the global balance sheet. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.