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Hot CPI and PPI prints failed to break bonds — and Kevin Muir of the Macro Tourist thinks he knows why. With The Economist cover curse and AI bubble mechanics in play, Muir makes a provocative case that the long end may already be at its low, while Sam Cutler of 333 Capital warns that bond buyers are hedging financing stress, not betting on disinflation. Kevin Muir, Macro Tourist X: https://x.com/kevinmuir LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kevin-muir-603a0435/ Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/kevinmuir.bsky.social Website: https://themacrotourist.com Sam Cutler X: https://x.com/search4yield3 Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇 ⁠⁠https://www.livesquawk.com/#sign-up⁠⁠⁠ Follow us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/LiveSquawk ⁠⁠Timestamps: 02:20 Hot US CPI, the bond rally and the AI trade 10:00 IMF forecasts and the US AI bubble risk 13:50 UK GDP, Huw Pill and four hikes priced in 21:47 RBA stays hawkish, China's pull on Australia 24:07 Week ahead: global PMIs and soft data 27:36 China Q3 GDP and the 2027 stimulus case 32:16 Canada CPI and the Bank of Canada 35:45 UK inflation and the Bank of England 38:14 Japan CPI, the BoJ and the yen 42:20 Midterms: why volatility looks cheap

The FOMC minutes showed almost unanimous concern over upside inflation risks — yet rate hike expectations are falling. Ryan Littlestone of Forex Analytics breaks down what that contradiction means for markets and why the Fed's credibility could soon be back in the crosshairs with an Iran-driven energy shock in the mix. Ryan Littlestone, Forex Analytics X: https://x.com/forexanalytix LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryan-littlestone-ba50a150 Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/forex-analyst.bsky.social Website: https://www.forexanalytix.com Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇 ⁠⁠https://www.livesquawk.com/#sign-up ⁠⁠⁠Follow us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/LiveSquawk Timestamps:00:00 Intro 01:53 FOMC minutes and Fed speakers 08:10 ECB accounts and second-round effects 12:47 French debt and Le Pen's budget plan 17:33 Spain snap election and Brazil's first round 19:14 Japan wages, Canada jobs and the next hikes 23:56 Oil, Iran and the Strait of Hormuz 26:30 Week ahead: US September CPI 29:29 UK GDP and the energy squeeze 32:31 China inflation and the yuan 35:13 US retail sales and wrap-up

NFP Miss and the Fed's Fractured Voice: October Hike Bets Crumble A headline NFP print of just 29,000 sends October Fed hike odds to 20% — but Jamie Dutta of Vantage and strategist Guenter Grimm argue the real story is in the wage data, the three-sector jobs market, and whether a new Fed chair can silence a deeply divided committee. Jamie Dutta, Vantage X: https://x.com/vantagemkts LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamie-dutta-6487a818 Website: https://www.vantagemarkets.com Guenter Grimm LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/guenter-grimm/ Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇⁠⁠ https://www.livesquawk.com/#sign-up⁠⁠⁠ Follow us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/LiveSquawk⁠⁠ Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and guests 02:08 US payrolls miss: 29K vs 80K expected 04:40 Fed outlook: core PCE, Fed speakers and October hike odds 12:11 Eurozone inflation at 3.8% and the ECB 17:16 European bond sell-off: France, Germany and safe havens 21:51 RBA hikes again, the case for the Aussie 24:46 G7 releases 100 million barrels of oil and diesel 27:32 France: spreads, the May election and the ECB 32:32 Week ahead: FOMC minutes, German data, Brazil election 35:48 Wrap-up

Gregoire Dupont of Dupont Trading joins to break down a week dominated by SNB, Norges Bank, and Riksbank decisions — and why the collective hawkish drift across central banks signals something more structural than a one-off energy shock. Follow Gregoire on X: https://x.com/GregoireDup LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gregoire-dupont-ab3885 Website: https://duponttrading.com Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇 ⁠https://www.livesquawk.com/#sign-up⁠⁠⁠ Follow us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/LiveSquawk⁠⁠

The ECB is widely expected to hike rates by 25 basis points — but what happens if Lagarde stays hawkish? Beat Nussbaumer and Guenter Grimm break down the ECB’s inflation problem, why the dollar is looking increasingly vulnerable despite strong US data, and why the yen’s recent surge may signal a much bigger shift in global capital flows. They also discuss the key CPI and PPI data ahead, BOJ rate hike expectations, and the risks building in the US bond market. Follow Beat on X: x.com/MacrobeatL Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇 ⁠⁠https://www.livesquawk.com/#sign-up ⁠⁠⁠Follow us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/LiveSquawk⁠⁠

162,000 payrolls and a revised July print put the jobs market back on solid footing — but two-year yields stalled at 4.42% and the dollar refused to break out. Ryan Littlestone and Michael Brown break down exactly why this number matters less than what CPI and PPI deliver next week, and why the data cycle that crushed the dollar last month is about to repeat itself. Ryan Littlestone, Forex Analytix X: @forexanalytix Michael Brown, Pepperstone X: @MrMBrown Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇 ⁠⁠https://www.livesquawk.com/#sign-up⁠⁠⁠ Follow us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/LiveSquawk⁠⁠

Kevin Walsh skipped the dot plot at his first meeting, wrote terser statements, and inherited three hawkish dissents. Marc Chandler maps out where the other six rate-hike sympathisers on the FOMC actually stand — and why the minutes may tell you more about the September outcome than the data prints that preceded them.Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, joins LiveSquawk Market Talk alongside Sam Cutler of 333 Capital. Read Marc's daily commentary at marctomarket.com, follow on X at https://x.com/marcmakingsense and on LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/in/chandlermarc/ Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇⁠⁠https://www.livesquawk.com/#sign-up⁠⁠⁠Follow us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/LiveSquawk⁠⁠

Trueflation at 1.29%, waste management volumes at pandemic lows, and record apartment concessions — the real economy is whispering recession while energy prices scream inflation. So why might the Fed hike anyway, and what would that tell us about what comes next? Follow Danielle on X: https://x.com/DiMartinoBooth Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE!👇 ⁠⁠https://www.livesquawk.com/#sign-up⁠⁠⁠ Follow us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/LiveSquawk⁠⁠

The Bank of Japan may be moving from biannual to quarterly hikes — a marginal policy shift with an outsized signal. Combined with a one-third market probability of a Fed hike and a nailed-on ECB move in September, this week's central bank calendar is anything but quiet. Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇⁠⁠https://www.livesquawk.com/#sign-up⁠⁠⁠ Follow us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/LiveSquawk⁠⁠

Energy prices, geopolitical flashpoints, and a Japanese yen under serious pressure - it's a challenging backdrop for any central bank. Nussbaumer and Grimm dissect whether the ECB's anticipated pause is prudent caution or a costly misstep. Follow Beat Nussbaumer on X: x.com/MacrobeatL Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇 ⁠⁠https://www.livesquawk.com/#sign-up ⁠⁠⁠Follow us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/LiveSquawk⁠⁠

Estimates are going up, not down - and that alone should raise eyebrows. Christine Short of Wall Street Horizon joins LiveSquawk to unpack why analyst optimism is running unusually hot heading into Q2 and what the banks' blowout results really signal. Follow Christine Short on X: https://x.com/christinelshort Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇 ⁠⁠https://www.livesquawk.com/#sign-up⁠⁠⁠ Follow us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/LiveSquawk⁠⁠

Chair Warsh has quietly buried forward guidance, and markets are still catching up. With CPI, retail sales, and a volatile energy complex all in play, the inflation narrative is getting complicated fast. Follow Sam Cutler on X: x.com/search4yield3 Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇 ⁠https://www.livesquawk.com/#sign-up⁠⁠⁠ Follow us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/LiveSquawk⁠⁠

A soft jobs report hands the Fed's new chairman an unexpected reprieve - but is the labor market cooling or cracking? Harry and Jamie Dutta weigh in on what the NFP miss really means for rate policy. Follow Jamie Dutta on X: https://x.com/vantagemarkets  Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇 ⁠⁠https://www.livesquawk.com/#sign-up⁠⁠⁠ Follow us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/LiveSquawk⁠⁠

Rory Johnston joins Commodity Corner to break down a global energy market caught between geopolitical de-escalation and a demand shock out of China. With contango building and refinery damage still rippling through the supply chain, the outlook for energy investors is anything but straightforward. Follow Rory Johnston on X: https://x.com/Rory_Johnston Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇 https://www.livesquawk.com/#sign-up⁠⁠⁠ Follow us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/LiveSquawk⁠⁠

Keir Starmer is out — and markets are watching who fills the vacuum. We break down what Andy Burnham's anticipated rise means for UK assets, sterling, and investor confidence at a precarious moment. Follow Michael on X: https://x.com/MrMBrown Try our 24-hour news squawking service for FREE! 👇 https://www.livesquawk.com/#sign-up Follow us on X: ⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/LiveSquawk⁠⁠