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Japan just broke a major taboo, and Australia may be next. A serving defense minister is publicly questioning whether nuclear weapons, nuclear-powered submarines, and extended deterrence should still be off limits—and that shift opens up one of the most important security debates in the Indo-Pacific. Carl Rhodes and Christine Leah unpack why this matters far beyond Tokyo. If you care about Australia’s AUKUS path, the credibility of the US nuclear umbrella, or what happens when old taboos collide with a worsening security environment, this conversation goes straight to the heart of it. You’ll discover: Why Japan’s willingness to openly discuss nuclear options is a big dealHow Australia’s AUKUS decision skipped the public debate Japan is now forcingWhat extended deterrence means, and why some allies feel safer with more visible nuclear supportThe tension between non-proliferation ideals and geopolitical realityWhy conventional and nuclear deterrence can no longer be separatedHow precision strike, drones, and long-range missiles are changing the meaning of strategic depthwww.thinkdeterrence.com

A new map of the U.S. military footprint in Australia has reignited a long-running debate over sovereignty, deterrence, and entrapment. With 110 facilities tied to U.S. access, contractor activity, intelligence work, bomber operations, submarine support, logistics, and stockpiled war materiel, the stakes are no longer abstract. Christine and Carl unpack why the relationship is growing more integrated. You'll discover how concepts like full knowledge and concurrence shape Australia’s control over joint facilities, why phrases like “no foreign bases” can be legally true while still masking deep operational access, and how the 2014 Force Posture Agreement actually works in practice. The conversation also traces the issue back to Pine Gap, Northwest Cape, and the Cold War, showing this is not a new controversy - just one that has become more urgent. Christine brings a historical lens on Australian alliance management and extended deterrence, including the long debate over what Australia should expect from the United States in a crisis. Carl pushes on the practical side - what happens when facilities, submarines, aircraft, and munitions are already enmeshed, and who decides what gets used, when, and for whom? We break down the real tension between deterrence and entrapment, why Australia may want the protection of U.S. power without losing agency, and how the rise of China changes the calculations. The discussion also gets into the role of regional conflict, whether the Pacific has truly been “pivoted” to by the U.S., and why a war involving major powers would be a whole-of-nation event, not just a military one. www.thinkdeterrence.com

What enables a nation to endure years of war and continue fighting effectively? In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Dr. Viktoriya Fedorchak explores the remarkable resilience of Ukraine throughout the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Drawing on her research, she examines the interconnected concepts of preparedness, mobilization, and resilience, highlighting how military and societal factors have enabled Ukraine to adapt and persevere under extraordinary pressure. The conversation explores key lessons from Ukraine’s long-term conflict, including the importance of national preparedness, the ability to recover and adapt in wartime, and the role of public support in sustaining military effectiveness. Dr. Fedorchak also discusses how these lessons may apply to other nations, particularly Australia, as they confront evolving security challenges. The episode concludes with an examination of modern warfare’s rapidly changing character, including the growing impact of drones and the continued importance of air power. Dr. Fedorchak offers insights into how military organizations can adapt their doctrines and force structures to address emerging threats while maintaining operational effectiveness. Dr. Viktoriya Fedorchak is a Senior lecturer and Docent\Associate Professor in War Studies, Air Operations Division, at the Swedish Defence University. Previously, she taught courses in Air Power, Security and Strategic Studies, International Relations in Norway, Ireland, and the UK. She has widely published on air power and security studies, multi-domain aspects of the Russia-Ukraine war. Her books are the monograph ‘British Air Power: The Doctrinal Path to Jointery’ (Bloomsbury Academic, 2018), and the textbook ‘Understanding Contemporary Air power’ (Routledge, 2020). Her most recent monograph, ‘The Russia-Ukraine War: towards Resilient fighting Power’ (Routledge), was published in Spring 2024 and is available online in open access. Her current research interests include air power, Nordic aerial cooperation, multi-domain operations, professional military education, and Sweden’s NATO membership. www.thinkdeterrence.com

How should allies share the burden of defense in an increasingly contested security environment? In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Christine and Carl unpack the strategic implications of a recent speech by U.S. Under Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby and explore what it means for the future of the U.S.-Australia alliance. The discussion examines alliance responsibilities, deterrence strategies, and the challenges of maintaining regional stability in the Indo-Pacific. From Australia's growing military capabilities and strategic partnerships to debates over burden sharing, missile defense, and military readiness, the conversation highlights how allies can strengthen deterrence while navigating complex geopolitical realities. Christine and Carl also compare NATO's evolution with security arrangements in the Asia-Pacific, discussing how different threat environments shape alliance structures, defense investments, and strategic decision-making. Along the way, they explore the concepts of strategic depth, forward basing, escalation dynamics, and the economic benefits that underpin enduring security partnerships. Tune in for an insightful discussion on how allies can strengthen deterrence, adapt to evolving threats, and maintain stability in one of the world's most strategically important regions. https://thinkdeterrence.com/ Like and follow us – The NIDS View: https://media.rss.com/nuclearview/feed.xml LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.com Our Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Carl Rhodes and Christine Leah examine one of the most debated developments in modern nuclear strategy: the United States' Sea-Launched Cruise Missile-Nuclear (SLCM-N) program. As geopolitical competition intensifies in the Indo-Pacific, policymakers and defense planners are reassessing how nuclear and conventional capabilities contribute to deterrence, assurance, and regional stability. Carl and Christine break down what SLCM-N is, why the United States is pursuing the capability, and how it fits into the broader framework of extended nuclear deterrence. They explore the historical role of sea-launched nuclear weapons, the legacy of the nuclear Tomahawk missile, and the strategic arguments both for and against deploying nuclear-armed cruise missiles aboard naval platforms. The discussion also examines Australia's evolving missile defense capabilities, including recent testing at Woomera, and considers what these developments mean for allies and partners throughout the region. Along the way, they address the perspectives of Japan and South Korea, command and control challenges, signaling and escalation risks, and Australia's longstanding nuclear policy commitments. From tactical nuclear weapons and maritime deterrence to alliance assurance and Indo-Pacific security, this episode provides a timely and accessible look at the complex strategic questions shaping the future of nuclear deterrence. Resources: Hiroshi Nakatani thesis on Japan https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/86467/2/23871021_Nakatani_thesis.pdf Desmond Ball http://www.jstor.org/stable/2538940?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents Linton Brooks http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/ins/summary/v013/13.3.brooks.html David Lange https://www.amazon.com.au/Nuclear-Free-New-Zealand-Way/dp/0140145192 www.thinkdeterrence.com

In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Carl and Christine examine China's recent submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) test and what it reveals about Beijing's evolving approach to nuclear deterrence in the Asia-Pacific. Was the launch a routine military activity, a strategic signal, or both? Carl and Christine explore the role of transparency, nuclear signaling, and strategic communication among major powers, while discussing the implications for Australia, the United States, and regional allies. They also unpack the diplomatic dynamics unfolding across the Pacific, the challenges posed by emerging missile technologies, and the growing importance of credible deterrence in an increasingly complex security environment. Chapters 00:00 Introduction and episode overview 01:28 China tests submarine-launched missile in the Pacific 02:22 Timing of the test and regional signaling 04:22 Interpretation of routine vs. provocative testing 08:12 Transparency and nuclear signaling 11:27 Missile testing and international norms 14:38 Cruise missiles and nuclear deterrence 16:15 Warning time and strategic preparedness 20:22 Australia’s response and regional security 22:48 Nuclear free zones and regional treaties 24:55 Diplomatic strategies in the Pacific 27:00 The evolving strategic landscape in Asia-Pacific 30:12 Future challenges and the role of transparency https://thinkdeterrence.com/ Like and follow us – The NIDS View: https://media.rss.com/nuclearview/feed.xml LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.com Our Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, defense expert Marc Ablong joins the conversation to examine the challenges facing Australia's defense establishment and the reforms needed to strengthen deterrence, resilience, and national preparedness. From acquisition delays and risk-averse processes to supply chain vulnerabilities and sovereign capability, Ablong offers a candid assessment of what must change to deliver the capabilities Australia needs. The discussion explores the government's efforts to reform defense delivery, the realities of achieving greater self-reliance, and why a whole-of-nation approach is essential to addressing modern security challenges. Ablong argues that organizational restructuring alone is not enough—success depends on faster decision-making, resilient supply chains, and stronger partnerships across government, industry, and society. Marc Ablong is Managing Partner of Geostrategic Risk Partners. Prior to founding Geostrategic Risk Partners, Marc had a 31-year career in the Australian Public Service, that culminated as Deputy Secretary of the Australian Department of Home Affairs. Before that, Marc was a senior executive with 25 years within the Department of Defence. Marc led the development of the 2016 Defence White Paper, Integrated Investment Program and Defence Industry Policy Statement. Substack: mablong.substack.com

In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, defense analyst Steven Kuper joins the conversation to examine Australia’s evolving strategic posture in an increasingly contested Indo-Pacific. The discussion centers on the implications of AUKUS—the trilateral security partnership reshaping defense cooperation, advanced capabilities, and undersea power in the region—and what it means for Australia’s long-term security and strategic independence. Cooper explores the tension between Australia’s historic reliance on allies and the growing need for greater self-reliance, highlighting how resilience—across defense, industry, and the economy—has become a core component of national security. From submarine capabilities to supply chain strength, the conversation underscores the interconnected nature of modern deterrence. The episode also unpacks strategic stability in a complex environment, where technological change, regional competition, and military modernization are reshaping how nations prepare for and prevent conflict. As Cooper notes, deterrence is not just about capability—it’s about adaptability, mobilization, and making critical choices today that shape tomorrow’s security landscape. With insights on mobilization challenges, defense industry capacity, and geopolitical risk, this episode offers a clear-eyed look at the realities facing Australia—and why building a resilient, integrated strategy is essential for navigating the future of deterrence. Listen now to explore how Australia is positioning itself for the next era of strategic competition. www.thinkdeterrence.com Follow us on YouTube and Linkedin

In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, defense analyst Lowell Schwartz joins Carl and Christine to examine the evolving landscape of nuclear diplomacy among the United States, Russia, and China. As great power competition intensifies without consistent dialogue, Schwartz explores the growing challenges surrounding arms control, transparency, and strategic stability in an increasingly complex multipolar environment. https://thinkdeterrence.com/ Like and follow us – The NIDS View: https://media.rss.com/nuclearview/feed.xml LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.com Our National Security Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, hosts Christine and Carl take a deep dive into extended nuclear deterrence, nuclear sharing, and Australia’s evolving defense strategy in an increasingly contested Asia‑Pacific region. The discussion examines whether nuclear sharing—long debated in Europe—could play a role in Australia’s security posture, and what the strategic, political, and regional consequences might be. From alliance reliability and the credibility of U.S. extended deterrence to the risks and benefits of hosting nuclear weapons on Australian soil, this episode tackles some of the most complex questions facing policymakers today. They unpack the implications of Australia’s 2026 National Defence Strategy, including the push toward greater self‑reliance, the role of AUKUS, and how nuclear capabilities factor into regional stability and deterrence dynamics involving China. https://thinkdeterrence.com/ Like and follow us – The NIDS View: https://media.rss.com/nuclearview/feed.xml LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.com Our Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, defense analyst Derek Grossman joins the discussion with Carl to unpack how countries across the Indo‑Pacific view—and respond to—China’s growing influence. As Grossman notes, the Indo‑Pacific is far from monolithic, with regional actors pursuing distinct strategies shaped by history, geography, and national interest. The conversation examines Australia’s evolving defense posture, the implications of AUKUS, and the role of U.S. alliances in shaping regional security. It also explores China’s expanding diplomatic footprint, including the Belt and Road Initiative, alongside concerns over coercion, influence, and strategic signaling. From ASEAN’s careful balancing to Vietnam’s nuanced approach, this episode highlights why calibrated engagement and credible deterrence remain essential in managing great‑power competition. This discussion offers valuable insight into the complexity of Indo‑Pacific security dynamics—and why understanding regional perspectives is critical to shaping effective strategy. https://thinkdeterrence.com/ Like and follow us – The NIDS View: https://media.rss.com/nuclearview/feed.xml LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.com Our Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Christine and Carl examine the accelerating pace of China’s military modernization and what it means for Australia, regional allies, and stability in the Indo‑Pacific. The discussion explores Beijing’s strategic objectives—particularly its anti‑access/area denial (A2AD) approach—and how these capabilities shape deterrence dynamics surrounding Taiwan and U.S. and allied forces operating in the region. The conversation also highlights Australia’s evolving defense posture, including industrial cooperation with partners such as Germany, the growing importance of alliances, and the challenges posed by operating exquisite but finite military systems across vast distances. Drawing lessons from recent conflicts, the panel assesses how multi‑domain precision warfare, forward basing vulnerabilities, and alliance cohesion factor into deterring conflict in an increasingly contested strategic environment. Get Involved with more NIDS Services: https://thinkdeterrence.com/ Deterrence Education at NIDS https://thinkdeterrence.com/deterrence-education/ Listen to our Podcasts NIDS Podcast Network - National Institute for Deterrence Studies Like and follow us – The NIDS View: https://media.rss.com/nuclearview/feed.xml LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.com Our Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

China’s rapid nuclear expansion is reshaping global deterrence—and it’s happening faster than many realize. In this episode, Christine and Carl break down China’s evolving nuclear strategy, from new missile systems and submarine-launched capabilities to alarming tests near Lop Nur. They explore what a growing arsenal—potentially reaching the thousands by the 2030s—means for strategic stability, first‑strike dynamics, and regional security in Australia and the Indo‑Pacific. Essential listening for anyone concerned about the future of nuclear deterrence and global security. Get Involved with more NIDS Services: https://thinkdeterrence.com/ Deterrence Education at NIDS https://thinkdeterrence.com/deterrence-education/ Listen to our Podcasts NIDS Podcast Network - National Institute for Deterrence Studies Like and follow us – The NIDS View: https://media.rss.com/nuclearview/feed.xml LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.com Our Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Carl speaks with Dr. Fei‑Ling Wang about China’s worldview, the Chinese Communist Party’s vision for a new global order, and the strategic implications of China’s military and technological rise. The conversation explores why Taiwan is central to CCP legitimacy, how China seeks influence through both power and institutions, and why long‑term coordination among Western allies is essential to counter Beijing’s ambitions. Get Involved with more NIDS Services: https://thinkdeterrence.com/ Deterrence Education at NIDS https://thinkdeterrence.com/deterrence-education/ Listen to our Podcasts NIDS Podcast Network - National Institute for Deterrence Studies Like and follow us – The NIDS View: https://media.rss.com/nuclearview/feed.xml LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.com Our Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Carl and Christina are joined by renowned counterintelligence expert Nick Eftimiades for a deep dive into the evolving landscape of Chinese espionage. Drawing on decades of research and firsthand experience, the conversation unpacks how China’s intelligence system operates as a whole‑of‑society enterprise—one that incentivizes espionage behavior across state, economic, and social domains. The discussion explores the organizational structure of Chinese intelligence, the expanding use of technology and social media, and the growing threat of economic and political interference. With a focus on Australia and other middle powers, the episode examines how foreign interference laws are being tested by these evolving tactics and why education, international cooperation, and economic diversification are critical countermeasures. This timely conversation underscores the urgent need for collaboration among like‑minded nations to build a credible deterrence framework capable of responding to China’s covert influence operations and safeguarding national security. Nicholas Eftimiades retired in 2017 after a 34‑year career with the U.S. Department of Defense, serving with the CIA, as a Special Agent in the State Department’s Bureau of Diplomatic Security, and as a Senior Intelligence Officer at the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). His senior DIA roles included Chief of Counterterrorism Operations and leadership of the Transnational Issues, Futures, and Space Divisions. He is a recipient of the National Intelligence Council Achievement Award and the DIA Director’s Intelligence Award. Get Involved with more NIDS Services: https://thinkdeterrence.com/ Deterrence Education at NIDS https://thinkdeterrence.com/deterrence-education/ Listen to our Podcasts NIDS Podcast Network - National Institute for Deterrence Studies Like and follow us – The NIDS View: https://media.rss.com/nuclearview/feed.xml LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.com Our Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/