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Since the U.S. Supreme Court let states legalize betting on sports in 2018, gambling has exploded. More than half of men ages 18 to 49 say they have an active account with an online sportsbook. Want to bet on a game, a play, or even an individual performance? The bookie is always open on your phone, and it sends promo credits to keep you in the game. Young men see the harm up close. The share of men under 30 who call legal sports betting bad for society has more than doubled since 2022, to 47%. Built to be addictive, sports betting is like cigarettes—and deserves a public health response.  Chapters: 00:01:02 Announcements 00:02:27 Retcon: Healthcare moral hazard vs. cost-sharing; networks and military branches 00:07:37 Terms & Conditions: Handle, the hold, and the tulip bubble 00:12:52 Big Pilcrow: Sports betting, prediction markets, and addiction 00:41:42 Executive Orders: Free museum entry for union members; kid-sized sink staircases 00:44:26 Spiritual Sponsors: Hermanos Gutiérrez; good procedural movies We are entirely listener supported! Join your Optimist donors here: https://optimisteconomy.com Video-curious? Watch clips on the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. Want full video? See above about donating. Chat with other Optimists on Substack. Rep your optimism with Optimist Economy merch: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Got economic questions, concerns, or executive orders?  Send them to [email protected]

Over a year into the administration's anti-immigration agenda, we’re seeing the economic fallout. For the first time in at least 50 years, estimates are that we lost immigrants on net; far fewer than usual arrived and a somewhat higher than usual number left. But if anyone benefited from that shift, it wasn’t U.S.-born workers. Even against the backdrop of our weak labor market, foreign-born workers now have slightly lower unemployment rates and higher labor market participation than they did two years ago. Their wages have also ticked up. Meanwhile, reduced population growth has thrown the country’s economic benchmarks into chaos, making it harder to interpret job creation, GDP, and the health of the labor market.Chapters: 00:00:50 Announcements: Send us your anticipated Thanksgiving dinner fights 00:01:45 Retcon: Consumer sentiment update, auto-enrollment for Trump Accounts  00:07:43 Terms & Conditions: Plutocratic 00:08:42 Big Pilcrow: Immigration and the Economy 00:36:38 Executive Orders: “The media isn’t covering this” comments; best-of award for bookstore tote bags. 00:38:31 Spiritual Sponsors: Sonoratown and an IPA on tap Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Video-curious? Watch the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.  Chat with other Optimists on Substack. Find utility with our merch: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Got economic questions, concerns, or executive orders?  Send them to [email protected]

The Consumer Sentiment Index has tracked how Americans experience the U.S. economy through bouts of runaway inflation, a mortgage crisis, stock market bubbles, and six recessions. And yet the scores right now are lower than at any of those moments. After nearly 50 years of tracking by the University of Michigan, Consumer Sentiment has broken through the basement. Beneath the five index questions are some clues as to why: Since 2008, the number of people who say the government is doing a poor job has grown from about a third to about three-quarters. This dissatisfaction has been a slow burn — and it’s also evidence that Americans are ready for bold, non-incremental economic change. 0:00 — Opening 6:25 — Retcon: Vacation Days & Moral Hazard in Healthcare 11:18 — Terms & Conditions: Likert Scale 14:24 — The Big Pilcrow: What’s Consumer Sentiment Telling Us? 17:20 — Record Lows: Sentiment Breaks From the Other Economic Metrics 20:54 — The Five Index Questions: Take Consumer Sentiment Survey Yourself! 26:55 — How’s the Government Doing Managing the Economy? Survey says…Poor 29:39 — It's the Economy, Stupid 31:16 — Partisanship Cancels Itself Out 33:11 — Why This Isn't the Same as What Happened to Biden 35:25 — Who Does Feel Good? 36:07 — Low Sentiment Deserves Big Policy 38:07 — Executive Orders: Hold the reservation. Too many eggs.  41:52 — Spiritual Sponsors: So, so many 47:17 — Credits We’re making Thanksgiving plans. Got a dinner table debate we can help with? Send it to [email protected] (and put Thanksgiving in the subject line). Donate to Optimist Economy, a registered 501(c)(3) nonprofit: https://optimisteconomy.com All the swearing is on the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. And Facebook, but you’ll just have to search for that.  Chat with other Optimists on Substack. Optimist hats are back in stock at the merch store: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy

(Originally aired June 10, 2025) The national debt is $36 trillion. That could be a panic-inducing big number. So maybe it will help to understand how we ran up that debt. We've blown 37% of it on tax cuts, with precious little to show for that. But 28% went to stabilize the economy during two major crises (in ‘08-’09 and during the COVID pandemic), which is when you do want the federal government to pull out its credit card. Good news is we don’t have to get the debt to zero. We just need to get it moving in that direction. And for listeners waiting for MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) to make a cameo, that moment has arrived.  Support Optimist Economy by becoming a paid Substack subscriber here, or by making a contribution at https://buymeacoffee.com/optimisteconomy Complete show notes with links to articles and data at optimisteconomy.com. You can also find Optimist Economy on: TikTok YouTube Instagram Read more: From Riches to Rags: Causes of Fiscal Deterioration Since 2001 [Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, 2024] Economic Effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act [Congressional Research Service, 2025] Is Modern Monetary Theory Nutty or Essential? [The Economist, 2019]Is This What Winning Looks Like?: Modern Monetary Theory, the buzziest economic idea in decades, got a pandemic tryout of sorts. Now inflation is testing its limits. [New York Times, 2022]

Optimist Economy is on break this month, but we know that optimist listeners are interested in tales of economic history, issues of inequality and movements for change. So we thought some of you might enjoy "Occupy!" a six-part narrative series about  Occupy Wall Street, the 2011 protest village that lasted nearly two months and turned a spotlight on systemic economic inequality in the U.S. --- EPISODE 1: An Invitation In 2011, a handful of skeptical New Yorkers answer a call to Occupy Wall Street. What they find feels less like a protest and more like a glimpse of a different world—one where people openly share stories of debt, hardship, and frustration. They start to build an anti-capitalist village in a tiny Manhattan park — under the watchful eyes of police. This is the first episode of Future Hindsight’s brand new 6-part series, OCCUPY! An Unfinished Uprising. Subscribe to Future Hindsight wherever you get your podcasts so you don’t miss a single episode! Want to dive deeper? Listen to these episodes of Future Hindsight: For a conversation on activism with a co-founder of Occupy Wall Street, tune in to this episode with Micah White: https://www.futurehindsight.com/episodes/episode/micah-white For a recap of how American capitalism evolved into what it is today, listen to this episode with Kurt Andersen: https://www.futurehindsight.com/episodes/episode/americas-evil-geniuses-kurt-andersen On solidarity and mutual aid, listen to this conversation with Manuel Pastor: https://www.futurehindsight.com/episodes/episode/solidarity-and-mutuality-manuel-pastor Credits: Host / Executive Producer: Mila Atmos Producer / Writer: Maria Luisa Tucker Audio Producer: Zack Travis Additional production help: Mia Warren, Erika Gjada, Megan Detrie, Lizzie Jacobs, and Ilya Magazanin Archival research: Marisa Holmes Archival material courtesy of: Occupy Wall Street Media Working Group. Original music: Rude Mechanical Orchestra and Puge Ruhe Special thanks to T.J. Raphael, Lauren Passell, Arielle Nissenblatt, and Kate Blumenfeld for being our first listeners and sounding boards, and to Tom Koenig for his support.  Distributed by PRX.

Nearly 90% of private-sector workers get paid vacation days from their job, but a Pew survey found 46% leave at least some of it on the table. Government survey data also show that the share of workers who are on vacation in any given week has fall by about half between 1980 and 2022. Blame thin staffing, guilt culture, and “PTO bundles” that push people to ration days between vacation days and sick leave. The fix exists elsewhere: the European Union, for instance, guarantees 20 paid days a year. If a Costco cashier is able to vacation in Europe twice, so should you.Chapters: 0:52 Announcements 2:53 Retcon Marathon 11:01 Terms & Conditions: Statutory Leave 12:04 Big Pilcrow: Vacation Days 14:03 Why Do We Think We Can't Take Time Off? 16:01 No Staffing Slack in the Office 16:51 Vacation Guilt is a Real Thing 18:51 What's Worker Power Got to Do With It? 20:20 Decline in Days Off: What the Data Says 21:17 Vague Numbers of Vacation Days 24:23 Cost of Travel is Up 24:56 Statutory Leave Could Create Jobs 26:28 What are Workers Leaving on the Table? 28:48 How Much Does Vacation Time Cost Employers? 31:08 Vacation Marxist Economics-Style 34:40 The Curse of the Long-Weekend Vacation 38:21 Could the Government Mandate Vacation Time? 42:46 Executive Orders: ACFC wins and Americans with Children Act 46:23 Spiritual Sponsors: Lizards! Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Video-curious? Watch the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.  Chat with other Optimists on Substack. Find utility with our merch: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Got economic questions, concerns, or executive orders?  Send them to [email protected]

About 18% of U.S. GDP every year gets spent on health care. Half of that, 9%, is coming from the government, which is about the whole cost of  other countries’ public health programs. In other words, for what the U.S. spends on Medicare, Medicaid, Tricare, VA benefits, and the tax write-off for employer-sponsored plans, we could have free basic health insurance for everyone. This is why the co-authors of the 2023 book “We’ve Got You Covered” describe the current health insurance system as a total tear-down. We could have universal insurance coverage for all with no tax hike if we started building from the ground up. Chapters: 0:00 Announcements  0:58 Retcon — Costco cashier's $33/hr job and career security 2:49 Terms & Conditions — Political economy, Cost Sharing, Gatekeeping 7:45 The Big Pilcrow: “Americare… Just Enough”  8:08 Healthcare vs. health insurance — why this is really an insurance/payer fight 12:53 We have 5+ public health programs already 17:07 Health economist Amy Finkelstein's research: "It's a tear-down, not a fixer-upper" 19:55 The proposed system — universal basic coverage + letting “rich people rich" without letting them opt out 28:11What Americans would love or hate 40:44 This health world changed a lot since Obamacare 43:20 Executive Orders — Airport boarding pass warnings, living-roof bus stops 45:20 Spiritual Sponsors — Resurrection fern, Aunt Fern 46:42 Credits Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Video-curious? Watch the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.  Chat with other Optimists on Substack. Find utility with our merch: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Got economic questions, concerns, or executive orders?  Send them to [email protected]

Just-in-time scheduling lets an algorithm decide when — and whether — millions of people work. Surveys find 40% of shift workers (mostly in retail and food service) don’t know their schedule a week in advance. They can also get sent home mid-shift or asked to be on call, unpaid. Studies show that more than 50% of hourly workers’ income swings up to 30% month-to-month, making it hard to budget for rent, qualify for benefits, or plan. A landmark study done at The Gap a decade ago proved stable schedules boost not only morale, but sales, so this isn't even bad for business. We already have fair workweek laws in many big cities, but this is a no-brainer for an update to the federal Fair Labor Standards Act. Chapters: 1:01 Announcements — Review shoutouts, Benevity donor thanks. 2:15 Retcon — July 4th recap, AI job-loss predictions walked back. 7:29 Terms & Conditions — Just In Time scheduling and clopening. 10:21 The Big Pilcrow: Underwork — Why part-time and shift workers get scheduled unfairly. 13:50 How the BLS tracks part-time hours by industry. 17:05 Economic vs. non-economic part-time reasons. 25:05 The Gap Study — Predictive scheduling boosted sales 7%. 28:22 Consequences — Income volatility and benefits fraud traps. 32:06 Fair workweek law and bills 35:20 Labor market regulation as low-cost policy. 41:59 Executive Orders — Credit card charge names, smaller jar lids. 43:52 Spiritual Sponsors — WaPo editorial takedown, new yoga studio. 48:12 Credits Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Video-curious? We have clips on the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠.  Follow us on social media, now including Facebook! We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.  Chat with other Optimists on Substack. Optimist Merch: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Got economic questions, concerns, or executive orders? Send them to [email protected]

Nobody has more riding on any changes to Social Security than people under 40. The trust fund is currently projected to run dry in the fourth quarter of 2032, but it could be sooner. Every election, starting in November, selects the lawmakers who will shape the program’s future. Neglecting to fix its finances will mean an automatic 22% cut to everyone's benefit. But for Millennials and Zoomers, what’s at stake isn't your elders’ monthly check — it’s the only life insurance, disability insurance, and old-age poverty insurance guaranteed to follow you through every job you'll ever have.Chapters: 1:21 Announcements — Unbleeped feed, subscribe reminders. 2:23 Retcon — Seed OK savings accounts follow-up. 4:36 Terms & Conditions — Social insurance vs. private insurance. 8:42 Big Pilcrow — Under 40? Time to tune in to the Social Security debate. 11:51 Youth Skepticism — Why young people have always doubted Social Security, and how that's politically exploited. 16:56 OBBA Impact — How the One Big Beautiful Bill Act cut Social Security's revenue. 18:37 Immigration Trends — Deportations and lower immigration also hurt. 21:11 Elections Have Begun — Social Security as a live political battleground. 22:35 First Beneficiaries — What studies of early recipients tell us. 30:36 Otherwise Uninsurable Risks — Death, disability, savings, longevity, inflation. 33:17 Paid Family Leave — Could Social Security's model extend to paid leave? 34:21 Claim Ownership — Youth should own this program. 37:08 Cuts by Geography — Rural states will get hit hardest if cuts come. 38:27 Executive Orders — Casting ages, cosmetic disclosure. 40:22 Spiritual Sponsors — World Cup, Jeopardy! triumph. Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Video-curious? Watch the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.  Chat with other Optimists on Substack. Find utility with our merch: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Got economic questions, concerns, or executive orders?  Send them to [email protected]

(Originally aired 6/24/2025) One in five workers in the United States was born in another country. Without them, the country’s prime-age workforce would be shrinking, and thus so would our economy. So the calumny (Terms & Conditions) directed at immigrants is at odds with the basic fact that the U.S. needs them. What about depressing wages? Research finds such a mixed bag of results that the overall effect is about zero. Indeed, if the goal is to save “American jobs” or help American workers, there are a lot more effective ways to spend $185 billion than on a massive crackdown on immigration rules. Chapters: 00:02:34  Announcements00:05:55  Retcon 00:10:43  Terms & Conditions  00:12:21  Big Pilcrow 00:43:07  Executive Orders 00:49:12  Spiritual Sponsors Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Video-curious? Watch the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.  Chat with other Optimists on Substack. Find utility with our merch: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Got economic questions, concerns, or executive orders?  Send them to [email protected]

It’s the United States’ semiquincentennial … and one of us is not feeling it. The other is literally carrying a flag in her bag — and that’s just her road flag. Kathryn Anne Edwards makes her case for optimism right now: The U.S. is undergoing one of the most dramatic demographic and cultural shifts of any industrialized nation. Americans agree that Congress is broken. And the people's agenda on wages, childcare, money in politics, and Social Security polls above 80%. Maybe this isn’t a backslide. It's just what clearing the air looks like. Chapters: 00:01:21 Announcements 00:04:10 Retcon: More on the national anthem 00:06:36 Terms & Conditions: Origin of "the melting pot" 00:08:01 Big Pilcrow: Make Robin Optimistic about America 00:48:17 Executive Orders: End gerrymandering; mandatory hearings on supermajority issues 00:50:03 Spiritual Sponsors: Knicks celebrations; bourbon in Louisville Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Video-curious? Watch the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Facebook somewhere (search for it), on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.  Chat with other Optimists on Substack. Find utility with our merch: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Got economic questions, concerns, or executive orders?  Send them to [email protected]

We can’t give financial advice. Or feedback on your 20-page tax proposal. But economist Kathryn Edwards did take a run at nearly 20 listener questions in under 60 minutes. Among them: Why care about birth rates if robots are taking all the jobs? What happens if the AI bubble bursts? Will the dollar collapse? Can the bond market sway the White House? Plus: Why the minimum wage matters even if it doesn’t alleviate most poverty and how to argue for universal free school lunch.  Chapters: 1:43 — AI & birth rates2:57 — AI & birth rates (cont.)5:43 — AI bubble burst8:11 — The experience of inflation11:20 — Minimum wage & poverty13:55 — Job loss after 5017:30 — Productivity squeeze21:00 — CEO pay ratio cap21:49 — Could the dollar collapse?26:59 — Bonds & the Fed28:35 — Debt ceiling fix31:12 — Trump Accounts vs 401k34:42 — Tax dollar waste myth36:46 — Universal school meals40:11 — Part-time for new parents42:28 — Fighting monopolies44:14 — Policy ideas for Texas47:34 — Mamdani goes federal? 50:43 — Top 1% wealth myth Dis-save a bit to help Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Unbeeped episodes at the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. Short videos on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. We are on Facebook. Search for us.  Get in on the Optimist chat on Substack. Get on the wait list for our next batch of hats: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Get in touch: [email protected]

This might be the most dangerous economic assertion circulating today: the high inflation from 2021-2023 was caused by government stimulus. The talking point on the right goes: the third COVID-era stimulus checks landed in March 2021, prices took off, case closed. Of course reality is more nuanced. And most serious estimates pin only a point or two of the inflation peak on the bill; the rest was supply chain chaos, a global chip shortage, and the Ukraine war. The pandemic caused the worst job loss on record — and the response produced the fastest labor-market recovery we've ever had, because policymakers went big. The danger is that they remember the inflation and forget the recovery. Chapters: 00:01:14 Announcements 00:03:24  Retcon: Q1 GDP Revised  00:04:50 Terms & Conditions: Output Gap, NAIRU, "The Long Depression" 00:11:49  Big Pilcrow: Is Recession Recovery Getting Blamed for Inflation? 00:42:14  Executive Orders: Parallel parking licenses, FIFA ticketing ban 00:45:52  Spiritual Sponsors: Small hardware stores, handwritten letter to OE Support Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com/donate Video-curious? Watch the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. Or search for us on Facebook. Chat with Optimists on Substack. Hats, tees and totes: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Reach us at: [email protected]

Thirty million Americans, more or less, work for themselves. They freelance, do gig work, have solo LLCs, or — as a certain economist says — participate in “ non-employee employment.” The economics of their situation is harder than it needs to be. Making self-employment more viable is good for everyone in the labor market, because when workers have options, they also have more power. Plus: Kathryn Anne Edwards testified before the House Ways and Means Committee, and a congressman implied she wasn't a real American. She has thoughts.Chapters: 0:00 — Start/Announcements 1:21 — Retcon: Bad banks, good overtime, and testifying before Congress (again) 18:17 — Big Pilcrow: Freelancers & non-employer businesses 44:42 — Executive orders: national anthem singing rules, Congressional attendance policy 47:20 — Spiritual sponsors: Supportive listeners and horchada + cold brew coffee 49:01 — Credits Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Video-curious? Watch the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.  Chat with other Optimists on Substack. Find utility with our merch: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Got economic questions, concerns, or executive orders?  Send them to [email protected]

(Originally aired 7/1/2025) Newly minted college graduates are having a harder time landing that first job than in recent years. Is it AI? Is college useless? Is it a crisis? (No. No. And not yet…) College graduates under 27 still have significantly lower unemployment rates (5.8%) than high school graduates of the same age (6.9%). What economist Kathryn Edwards finds worrying is that these new workers, who are typically a lagging economic indicator, may in this case be a bellwether of a weakening economy.  Support the Optimist Economy podcast by becoming a paid subscriber on Substack, or donating at https://buymeacoffee.com/optimisteconomy Complete show notes with links to articles and data at optimisteconomy.com. You can also find Optimist Economy on: TikTok YouTube Instagram -------- Read More: The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates [New York Fed, 2025] Hires, from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey [St. Louis Fed, 2025] Downskilling: changes in employer skill requirements over the business cycle [Labour Economics 2016] Upskilling: Do Employers Demand Greater Skill When Workers Are Plentiful? [The Review of Economics and Statistics 2020]