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Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Friday, February 6, 2026 — Bonus Episode: 2026 Year-to-Date Recap. SIX WEEKS IN. 25 EPISODES. ONE THESIS CONFIRMED. THE DECOUPLING THESIS: From day one of 2026, we called it. Bearish crude, bullish natural gas. Short crude rallies, accumulate gas on dips. Six weeks later, the data confirms everything. CRUDE OIL JOURNEY: - Week 1: WTI opened $57.41. Brent $60.85. Digesting 2025's 20% crash. - Week 2: OPEC+ Jan 4 freeze delivered exactly as predicted. 1.65M bpd cuts locked. - Week 3: WTI spiked to $62 on Iran tensions. We called it a sell. Collapsed to $59.22. - Week 4: IEA confirmed 3.84M bpd surplus. WTI crashed to $59.33. - Week 5: Geographic features week. Pre-recorded. - Week 6: WTI CRASHED 5% Monday from $66.51 to $62.25. $63-64 resistance held. Gasoline inventories 257.9M — highest since June 2020. EIA FORECAST: $52 average for 2026. Current price 17% premium. NATURAL GAS JOURNEY: - Week 1: $3.44, down 5% on warm weather. - Week 4: EXPLODED 70% on brutal cold snap. Highest since 2022. - Week 6: $3.34-$3.46. Storage draw 379 Bcf. LNG 18.3 bcfd near record. EIA FORECAST: $3.50 avg 2026, $4.60 for 2027. THE SCORECARD: ✅ OPEC+ freeze: CORRECT ✅ Crude surplus: CONFIRMED ✅ Gas buy on dips: EXECUTED (70% spike) ✅ $63-64 resistance: HELD ✅ Decoupling thesis: CONFIRMED Trade the data. Not the headlines. For energy opportunities: [email protected]

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Friday, February 6, 2026 — Weekly Recap: Week 6. THE WEEK THAT WAS: Crude got crushed. Gas held ground. The decoupling thesis played out perfectly. CRUDE OIL RECAP: WTI crashed 5% Monday from $66.51 to $62.25. US-Iran diplomatic shift and OPEC+ holding the line triggered the selloff. Bounced to $63.59 mid-week, then consolidated at $63.20 by Thursday. The bounce stalled exactly where we called it. $63-64 resistance held. EIA data confirmed the setup: crude inventories down 3.5 million barrels, but gasoline inventories hit 257.9 million. Highest since June 2020. Demand destruction hiding in the details. Refinery utilization dropped to 90.5%. OPEC+ held virtual meeting Feb 1. Production pause through March confirmed. Saudi at 10.1 million bpd, Russia at 9.57 million. They're trapped. EIA projects $52 average for 2026. We're trading at a 17% premium. The thesis: short rallies above $65. NATURAL GAS RECAP: Henry Hub ranged from $3.34 to $3.46 this week. Storage draw for week ending Jan 30 came in massive at 379 Bcf. LNG flows averaging 18.3 bcfd in February, approaching December's record. Golden Pass LNG online mid-2026. Structural demand locked. EIA holds $3.50 avg for 2026, $4.60 for 2027. Morgan Stanley sees above $5. The thesis: accumulate in the $3.30-$3.50 zone. Weather pulled us back. Gift. WEEK 7 OUTLOOK: Watch crude for continued resistance at $63-64. Any rally toward $65 is an exit. Gas remains a buy on dips. LNG demand is structural. The decoupling continues. Trade the data. Not the headlines. For energy opportunities: [email protected]

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Thursday, February 5, 2026 — Market Update. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI pulled back to $63.20, consolidating after Monday's 5% crash. The bounce stalled exactly where we said it would. $63-64 resistance holding. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report dropped. Crude inventories down 3.5 million barrels to 420.3 million. 4% below the 5-year average. Sounds bullish? Wrong. Here's what matters: Gasoline inventories jumped 700,000 barrels to 257.9 million. Highest level since June 2020. Demand destruction. Distillates down 5.5 million barrels to 127.4 million. Refinery utilization dropped to 90.5%. OPEC+ holding the line through March. They're trapped. EIA projects WTI averaging $52 for 2026. We're at $63. That's a 17% premium to fair value. Sell the rips. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Henry Hub at $3.46, down slightly. Storage draw for week ending Jan 30 expected around 379 Bcf. Massive. LNG flows to major terminals averaging 18.3 bcfd in February, approaching December's record 18.5 bcfd. Golden Pass LNG expected online mid-2026. EIA holds $3.50 avg for 2026, $4.60 for 2027. THE SETUP: Crude inventories falling but gasoline glut building. Demand weak. Gas supported by LNG ramp and storage draws. The decoupling continues. Trade the data. Not the headlines. For energy opportunities: [email protected]

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday, February 4, 2026 — Strategic Positioning. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI bounced to $63.59 yesterday, up 0.6% after Monday's 5% crash. Bouncing off the zero Fibonacci level around $61.21. OPEC+ confirmed production pause through March. Saudi Arabia at 10.1M bpd, Russia at 9.57M bpd. 1.65M bpd voluntary cuts remain. They're trapped. US ramping Iran sanctions. Eight entities and nine vessels sanctioned Jan 23. Iranian drone shot down near US carrier in Arabian Sea. Tensions rising. Our position unchanged. This bounce is noise. $63-64 is resistance. Short rallies. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Henry Hub at $3.34, up 0.73%. Milder temps through mid-Feb pulling prices back. Storage ending winter at 2,000 Bcf, 9% above 5-year average. Output hit 111.6 bcfd. LNG exports near record. Our position: $3.30-$3.50 is the accumulation zone. Weather pulled us back. Gift. Add here. THE DECOUPLING: Crude trapped by oversupply. Gas supported by LNG ramp. Short crude rallies, add gas on dips. Trade the data. Not the headlines. For energy opportunities: [email protected]

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Tuesday, February 3, 2026 — Technicals. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI pulled back hard. Down over 5% Monday, trading near $62.25 after hitting $66.51 swing high. US-Iran diplomatic shift and OPEC+ holding quotas triggered the move. Key levels. Support: $62.43 (38.2% Fib), $61.17 (50% Fib), $59.92 (61.8% Fib). The $60 psychological level is critical. Below that, $57 comes into play. Resistance: $66.51 swing high, then $66 zone. Moving averages: 100 SMA above 200 SMA confirms uptrend structure. But WTI flirting with close below 200-day MA. Indicators: Stochastic heading south from overbought. RSI above 50 midpoint but momentum fading. Pattern: Bearish double top forming. If $60 breaks, expect acceleration toward $57. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Resistance at $3.80 (200-day SMA), $4.00 (prior high). Support at $3.476 (Dec 30 reaction), $3.26 (middle Bollinger). RSI normalizing after January overbought spike. Trade the levels, not the noise. For energy opportunities: [email protected]

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Monday, February 2, 2026 — Strategic Positioning. Week 6 of 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI trading at $65.21 as of Feb 1. EIA forecasts $51.42 average for 2026. Brent $56. OPEC says 1.4M bpd demand growth. IEA and EIA see surpluses. OPEC sees tighter markets. Someone's wrong. Our position: believe the glut. Rallies to $65+ are exits, not entries. NATURAL GAS: EIA projects $3.50 average 2026. Storage at 2,823 Bcf as of Jan 23. LNG exports ramping 9% in 2026. Our position: $3.50-$4.00 is the accumulation zone. Don't chase $5 spikes. THE DECOUPLING: Crude trapped by oversupply. Gas supported by LNG export demand. Short crude rallies, accumulate gas on dips. Trade the data. Not the headlines. For energy opportunities: [email protected]

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Friday, January 30, 2026 — Geographic Feature: Texas. This is a pre-recorded episode. We'll be back with daily updates Monday, February 9th. TEXAS: America's energy engine. Permian Basin produced 6.6M bpd in 2025, flat forecast for 2026. Natural gas at 20.9 Bcf/d, up 12% YoY. The challenge: EIA forecasts WTI at $52/bbl vs Permian breakeven of $61-62/bbl. Growth stalls. The basin that broke OPEC pricing power is now price-sensitive itself. Energy Markets Daily returns with daily updates Monday, February 9th, 2026. Trade the data. Not the headlines. For energy opportunities: [email protected]

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Thursday, January 29, 2026 — Geographic Feature: Caribbean. This is a pre-recorded episode. We'll be back with daily updates Monday, February 9th. THE CARIBBEAN: Oil boom meets renewable transition. Guyana excluded from regional forecasts due to dramatic production growth. Trinidad remains the LNG anchor. CARICOM targets 47% renewable penetration by 2027. 100% renewables by 2035 is feasible and cheaper than fossil imports. Watch how capital flows between hydrocarbons and clean energy. For energy opportunities: [email protected]

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday, January 28, 2026 — Geographic Feature: Saudi Arabia. This is a pre-recorded episode. We'll be back with daily updates Monday, February 9th. SAUDI ARABIA: The world's swing producer. Aramco maintains 12M bpd maximum sustainable capacity. Abandoned 13M bpd expansion plans. Extraction costs: $2/bbl for oil. Spare capacity estimated at 2M+ bpd. OPEC+ cuts keep production well below capacity. When OPEC+ unwinds cuts, Saudi capacity determines the floor. For energy opportunities: [email protected]

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Tuesday, January 27, 2026 — Geographic Feature: Germany. This is a pre-recorded episode. We'll be back with daily updates Monday, February 9th. GERMANY: Europe's largest economy navigating a complex energy transition. Renewables now supply 52% of electricity. Target: 650 GW by 2040. Industrial electricity price cap at 5 euro cents/kWh from 2026. Nuclear gone April 2023. Coal phase-out by 2038. The scale of capital deployment creates opportunities in hydrogen, renewables, and grid infrastructure. For energy opportunities: [email protected]

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Monday, January 26, 2026 — Geographic Feature: Namibia. This is a pre-recorded episode. We'll be back with daily updates Monday, February 9th. NAMIBIA: Africa's next oil frontier. The Orange Basin is delivering world-class discoveries. TotalEnergies Venus estimated at 5.1 billion barrels in place. Shell's Jonker at 2.5 billion barrels. Total basin: 11 billion barrels oil plus 9 Tcf gas discovered. The challenge: high gas-to-oil ratios complicate economics. Watch TotalEnergies' late 2026 FID on Venus. For energy opportunities: [email protected]

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Friday, January 23, 2026 — Weekly Recap. Week four of 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI opened Monday at $59.39, bounced to $60.50 mid-week, then collapsed to $59.33 Friday (-1.96%). Brent in low $63s. IEA: 3.8M bpd surplus 2026. EIA: +3.6M bbl BUILD vs draw expected. Ukraine-Russia peace talks pricing in sanctions relief. Kazakhstan exports easing. Crude is trapped. NATURAL GAS: Historic week. Henry Hub EXPLODED 70% to highest since 2022. Brutal cold snap: Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast. Demand 128.7 Bcf/d vs 119.8 prior. Freeze-off risks. Weather-driven, not structural. Take profits near $5, add on pullbacks to $3.50-$4.00. THESIS: Short crude, long gas on pullbacks. Decoupling executes. For institutional energy opportunities: [email protected]

Thursday, January 22, 2026. WTI bounces to $60.67 after IEA glut report. Natural gas explodes to $5.06 on cold snap. Why you shouldn't chase either move.

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday, January 21, 2026 — Market Update. Week four of 2026. **CRUDE OIL:** WTI fell to $59.50 per barrel, down 1.3%. Brent tracking lower near $63. Geopolitical tensions easing but tariff fears clouding demand outlook. Kazakhstan halted output at two large oilfields temporarily but effect subsided. US crude inventory build expected weighing on prices. OPEC forecasts demand growth 1.4 million bpd in 2026, sees market balanced. OPEC+ pumped 42.83 million bpd in December. IEA released report today projecting supply exceeds demand by 3.84 million bpd in 2026. Major divergence between OPEC balance view and IEA glut view. Our thesis: believe the glut. Prices trading above Goldman and EIA forecasts of $52-56. Mean reversion coming. **NATURAL GAS:** Henry Hub surged to $3.94, up 0.8%. Cold snap delivering. Storage at 3,185 Bcf as of Jan 9, down 71 Bcf week over week. Still 106 Bcf above five-year average. EIA projects $3.46 average for 2026, $3.38 Q1. JP Morgan $3.85 Q1. Enverus $3.80 winter. BMI $3.90 for 2026. Current price above forecasts on cold weather demand. Structural bull case intact. Buy the dips. **CATALYST WATCH:** IEA report released today. EIA Petroleum Status Report Thursday Jan 22. **BOTTOM LINE:** Crude glut confirmed by IEA. Gas catching bid on cold weather. Trade the decoupling. Short crude rallies, long gas dips. **FINAL WORD:** Energy project needs capital? [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Thursday: Strategic Positioning.

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Tuesday, January 20, 2026 — Technicals. Week four of 2026. **CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS:** WTI trading near $59.50. Key support levels: $59.25, $59.10, then $58.37 at 38.2% Fibonacci and 100 SMA. Deeper support at $57.88 (50% retracement), $57.40 at channel bottom and 200 SMA. Ultimate floor at $55, the 2025 lows. Resistance levels: $60.05, $61.08, then key resistance at $62 which aligns with 200-period SMA. Break above $62 targets $66. Trading within ascending channel, uptrend intact. Stochastic showing exhaustion, buyers losing steam. RSI approaching neutral 50. Geopolitics and inventory data driving near-term direction. **NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS:** Henry Hub testing support. Key psychological support at $3.00. If $3.00 fails, next support $2.99, then $2.77. Resistance at $3.499, $3.634. Break above resistance triggers short-covering rally toward 50-day MA at $3.987 and 200-day MA at $4.254. January high near $3.60 just under 200-day EMA at $3.62. Pivot zone $3.62-$3.65. Cold snap forecast Jan 20-24 may provide temporary support at $3.00. **BOTTOM LINE:** Crude in ascending channel but buyers exhausted near resistance. Gas testing $3.00 floor with cold weather support. Trade the levels. **FINAL WORD:** Energy project needs capital? [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday: Market Update.