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The war in the Middle East is putting the global aviation industry under unprecedented pressure. Flight schedules have become unpredictable, fuel costs have soared and ticket prices have risen sharply. Yet demand for air travel remains strong, with a record five billion passengers expected to fly this year. For Hassan El-Houry, chief executive officer of Menzies Aviation, one of the world's largest aviation services companies, the challenge is keeping operations running across 365 airports in 65 countries while airlines face a sharp squeeze on profitability. In this episode of The Inside Brief, Manus Cranny speaks to Mr El-Houry about the impact of the conflict on global aviation and why he expects the industry to recover quickly once stability returns. Mr El-Houry also discusses the company's ambitious expansion plans in the Middle East, particularly the UAE, following its acquisition of American aviation services company G2 Secure Staff. He explains why Menzies is determined to compete in the region, whether an IPO is on the table, and why delays to Heathrow's third runway risk weakening Britain's position as a global aviation hub. The conversation also turns to Mr El-Houry's remarkable journey from becoming a refugee during Iraq's invasion of Kuwait to leading a global business. He reflects on the lessons he learnt from military service, becoming a chief executive at just 28, and why human connection and critical thinking remain indispensable in the age of AI. The Inside Brief with Manus Cranny is available on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify and other major platforms.

Mike Pompeo is the only person in American history to have served as both CIA director and secretary of state. A West Point graduate who finished first in his class, a Harvard Law Review editor and a former manufacturing entrepreneur, he served under US President Donald Trump and was one of the architects of the Abraham Accords. His memoir is titled Never Give an Inch. Speaking to Manus Cranny in New York, days after attending Senator Lindsey Graham's funeral in Washington, where Benjamin Netanyahu also met with Mr Trump, Mr Pompeo does not characterise the conflict as a Middle East war. He calls it a global one, tying Iran, China and Russia into a single axis. On this episode of The Inside Brief, Mr Pompeo explains why he believes the Gulf states will ultimately join the US in delivering a decisive blow to Iran's military capabilities, why economic pressure is already visibly degrading life inside Iran, even if the outside world cannot see it, and what a realistic roadmap to ending the conflict looks like. Mr Pompeo also addresses the Netanyahu-Trump relationship, the prospect of regime change in Iran, the Abraham Accords as a model for post-war Gulf unity, and whether a two-state solution is remotely realistic today. He closes with what he considers the single greatest risk beyond the Gulf: Western civilisation losing confidence in itself. The Inside Brief with Manus Cranny is available on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify and other major platforms.

Mohammed Alardhi joined the Royal Air Force of Oman as a cadet in 1978, trained as a fighter pilot at RAF Cranwell and rose to command the entire Omani Air Force with the rank of Air Vice Marshal, before leaving for Harvard. He is now executive chairman of Investcorp. The alternative asset manager founded in 1982 made its name buying and selling Tiffany and Gucci, and has since grown from $10 billion to $63 billion in assets under management under his leadership.   In this episode of The Inside Brief, Manus Cranny sits down with Mr Alardhi at Investcorp's headquarters in London's Mayfair to discuss how the firm has navigated months of regional conflict without a material impact on capital flows, why he believes anyone who has bet against the Gulf in the past 50 years has lost, and where the next alpha lies as Investcorp targets $100 billion in assets under management. They also discuss the $2 trillion in AI commitments between the Gulf and the US, whether markets are heading for a bubble, how Investcorp is deploying AI across its business, and why the firm continues to see opportunity in the UK despite its political turbulence. Mr Alardhi also reflects on the lessons fighter pilots and investment professionals share, and what conviction, calculated risk and trusting your team mean when the stakes are high. The Inside Brief with Manus Cranny is available on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify and other major platforms.

The International Energy Agency was founded in 1974, in the wake of the Arab oil embargo, with a clear mandate: co-ordinate emergency stock releases in a crisis. In 2026, that mandate has been tested like never before. On March 11, the IEA authorised the release of 400 million barrels of oil, the largest co-ordinated stock release in the agency's history, after the Strait of Hormuz closure sent the global energy market into its worst crisis in half a century. In this episode of The Inside Brief, Manus Cranny sits down with IEA executive director Fatih Birol at the agency's headquarters in Paris. They discuss whether Saudi Arabia and the UAE can fully rebuild their reputations as reliable exporters and why Asian buyers are already diversifying away from Gulf supply regardless of whether the strait fully reopens. By Mr Birol's own measure, the world has lost more barrels from this crisis than the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks combined. Mr Birol also addresses oil price trajectory and the conditions required for a return to prewar export levels, what Iran's barrels can realistically add to global supply, the UAE's decision to leave Opec and what it means for the cartel's future, and how the IEA is navigating the Trump administration's energy dominance doctrine while expanding its membership to Nigeria, Brazil and India. “The vase is broken,” Birol says. “The Strait of Hormuz is closed once, and it can be closed again. It is now in everybody's mind.” The Inside Brief with Manus Cranny is available on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify and other major platforms.

Next month marks a turning point for the UAE's space industry. Abu Dhabi-based satellite company Orbitworks will ship Altair-1, the first satellite designed and built in the country for commercial export, to California to launch. Leading that effort is Dr Hamdullah Mohib, acting chief executive of Orbitworks. His path to the role is unlike almost any other in the industry. An engineer by training, he was Afghanistan's ambassador to Washington during the administration of former US president Barack Obama before becoming national security adviser to former Afghan president Ashraf Ghani, a role that placed him at the centre of some of the most consequential moments in his country's recent history.   On this episode of The Inside Brief, Dr Mohib joins Manus to discuss what the Orbitworks milestone represents for the UAE's ambition to become a commercial exporter of space technology, why it chose an exclusively US and European technology stack, what the SpaceX IPO - at a valuation of $1.77 trillion - means for the broader sector, and how a constellation of 10 satellites equipped with Nvidia chips could change the way industries, from oil and gas to insurance, interact with Earth observation data. He also talks about his youth as a refugee in Pakistan, the negotiation lessons he learned at his father's table, and what resilience looks like for someone who has spent a lifetime choosing to put fear aside and seize opportunities as they arise. The Inside Brief with Manus Cranny is available on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify and other major platforms.

When the US-Iran conflict was at its peak, most developers were waiting, but Mahdi Amjad was accelerating. The founder and executive chairman of Omniyat Group, which encompasses the UAE's leading ultra-luxury developer Omniyat, sat down with Manus Cranny on location at The Opus building in Dubai Business Bay for a conversation about building through conflict, the numbers behind his confidence, and why he believes this moment is the greatest opportunity the UAE has offered. Mr Amjad reveals that despite a short-term reduction in sales since the war began, all Omniyat's projects remain in full construction, fully funded to completion. He also announces that Omniyat Group's total portfolio has already surpassed Dh120 billion, having set a five-year target of Dh100 billion just two years ago. The new target is more than Dh200 billion by 2030. In the conversation, Mr Amjad also reflects on his 35 years in the UAE, the lessons he learnt from a decade working with the late Zaha Hadid on Opus, how he redesigned the building mid-crisis during the 2008 financial crash, and why he exited his entire London portfolio in 2003 to bet on Dubai. On AI, Mr Amjad reveals Omniyat Group has set up a dedicated transformation division and is on track to invest more than $100 million in AI, which he calls one of the best investments he has made.

Billionaire John Caudwell built Phones4u into one of Britain's biggest mobile phone retailers before selling it for almost £1.5 billion in 2006. He has since committed to giving 70 per cent of his wealth to charity. In a special edition of The Inside Brief recorded at his estate in the South of France, Mr Caudwell speaks to Manus Cranny with characteristic directness about British politics, the economy, AI and what drives him. Mr Caudwell says he switched his support to Labour before the 2024 general election for two reasons: the Conservatives had made a hash of things for so long that he had lost confidence in them, and Labour was pushing hard on GDP growth and support for business. He had meetings with Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Prime Minister Keir Starmer, but failed to influence them. The two Labour budgets since, he argues, have been business-unfriendly and counterproductive. Soaking the rich, he says, ultimately drags the economy down and makes the poor worse off in the long term, because the wealth needed to fund public services is not being created. On Andy Burnham, the man tipped to succeed Mr Starmer as prime minister, Mr Caudwell warns against further instability and the risk of a bigger shift to the left. On Nigel Farage and Reform, currently ahead in the polls, he agrees with much of their economic thinking but says he cannot support a party he regards as climate sceptic, and one he fears could bring the kind of divisiveness he associates with the current US administration. On AI, Mr Caudwell says it is both terrifying and exciting. He uses ChatGPT, argues with it and says he always wins. But he warns of a tsunami of young unemployed people as AI replaces jobs, and he worries about a generation growing up unable to tell what is real from what is fabricated. On wealth creation, his advice to the next generation is straightforward: it has to be internet-based, it has to have a worldwide application, and you need ambition, drive, passion, resilience, commercial intellect and, if you want to build at scale, leadership. The conversation was recorded at Domaine de la Belle Etoile, the estate surrounding Le Provencal, the French Riviera hotel Mr Caudwell bought in 2014 and has spent more than a decade restoring. Apartments at the former hotel are priced from £4 million to £40 million.

In this special episode of The Inside Brief with Manus Cranny, former US National Security Agency chief Tim Haugh joins us in London to talk about the cyber dimensions of the Iran war and regional escalation, including an attack on the UAE's nuclear power plant. Mr Haugh argues that the US is seeking conditions for a political settlement focused on freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the removal of enriched uranium from Iran, while Tehran aims to apply pressure through attacks on regional infrastructure. He says meaningful pressure would likely require Islamic Revolutionary guard Corps-focused targets, though few may compel compromise. After US President Donald Trump’s Beijing visit, Mr Haugh says the level of Chinese support for Iran remains unclear. He also says Iran’s capacity has likely degraded and resembles criminal opportunism, while artificial intelligence is accelerating the discovery of vulnerabilities and driving investment needs, alongside new physical defence priorities for data centres.

Bond markets are sending signals that politicians are struggling to read. Former Bank of England governor Sir Mervyn King joins The Inside Brief with Manus Cranny from London to make sense of them, drawing on a 22-year career at the institution and a decade as governor during some of the most turbulent periods in modern financial history. On the current state of UK gilt markets and rising long-term yields, Mr King argues that a 10-year bond yield of 5 per cent is not unusual in itself. What concerns him more is the deep political reluctance across major economies to put public debt on a sustainable path. The choice, he says, is straightforward: either cut spending or raise taxes. On the oil shock, Mr King warns that the impact on inflation will be very different depending on whether the Middle East conflict lasts weeks, months or longer, and that central banks cannot yet know how much of it they can afford to look through. He draws on his own experience at the Bank of England after the financial crisis, when the institution looked through the biggest devaluation of sterling since the Second World War, and explains the conditions under which those judgments on interest rates were made. In the conversation, Mr King also reflects on the City of London, the closeness of relationships between the world's major central banks, and the charity he cofounded in 2005, Chance to Shine, which has brought cricket into state schools and reached eight million children.

The Iran war has put pressure on businesses headquartered in the UAE, but Kaan Terzioglu, chief executive of Dubai-based multinational telecommunication and digital services company Veon is not among those pulling back. Speaking to The Inside Brief with Manus Cranny from the company's Dubai offices, Mr Terzioglu says he is a hundred per cent sure Dubai will come out of this even stronger, and that the ability to access capital and talent is not at risk. Veon operates across some of the world's most challenging frontier markets, from Pakistan and Bangladesh to Ukraine and Kazakhstan, serving half a billion people across its telecoms and digital services platforms. Mr Terzioglu describes Veon not as a mobile operator but as a consumer and enterprise services company which happens to have a telecom licence. Today, 75 per cent of the business comes from traditional telecom services, growing at seven to eight per cent year-on-year. The remaining 25 per cent, covering banking, entertainment, healthcare and ride hailing, grows at 60 per cent year-on-year. Mr Terzioglu expects digital services revenue to exceed telecom revenue within three years. On the Iran war, Mr Terzioglu draws on experience managing a business through the Russia-Ukraine conflict, when 70 per cent of Veon's revenue came from a war zone overnight. The company had 19,000 people in Russia and 4,000 in Ukraine and had to make a defining choice. They chose Ukraine and exited Russia, losing half the business. Today, Veon is still growing and profitable in Ukraine. On AI, Veon is building sovereign large language models in local languages including Bangla, Urdu, Punjabi, Kazakh and Ukrainian, working with governments to access trainable data and taking around nine months to build each core model. Mr Terzioglu's ambition is not cost cutting but augmentation. He calls AI the recipe for becoming a superhero and says that those who are late to adapt risk being left behind. During the conversation, Mr Terzioglu also shared some personal reflections. Growing up in Istanbul during the hyperinflationary environment of the 1970s and 1980s, trading Deutsche marks on the black market, taught Mr Terzioglu one fundamental rule for operating in frontier markets: pricing control.

Goldman Sachs has just reported one of its strongest and most profitable quarters on record, with more than $17 billion in revenue. But with the Iran war reshaping the region and global recession risk rising, what are the world's leading investment banks actually thinking? Anthony Gutman, co-chief executive of Goldman Sachs International and co-head of investment banking, joins Manus Cranny on The Inside Brief from Abu Dhabi, as one of the first senior international bankers to visit the UAE since the Iran conflict began. In this episode, Mr Gutman shares what he found in 24 hours of back-to-back client meetings with sovereign wealth funds and corporate clients: not conversations about the macro, but requests for deal lists. Mr Gutman addresses the disconnect between outside perceptions of the UAE and the reality on the ground, the question of long-term reputational impact on the region and why he believes damage will be limited if the conflict is resolved quickly. He also spoke about the UAE's response to the conflict, saying leadership has done “a phenomenal job dealing with the safety and security of their people”, and that the country remains a place where people want to do business, bring their families and feel secure. Despite the conflict, Goldman's advisory backlog remains close to record levels, with more than 20 deals of $10 billion or more executed in the first quarter alone. On the global economy, Mr Gutman explains why Goldman's economists have set out a range of scenarios, base case to extreme, each correlated with how long the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and why the Q2 earnings season will be the defining moment. Mr Gutman also speaks about AI and its role in driving the current M&A super cycle, how clients are learning to distinguish signal from noise in a volatile world, and what it actually takes to earn and keep a relationship at the highest levels of global finance.

In this live edition of The Inside Brief, host Manus Cranny is joined by Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, to assess the rapidly escalating conflict in the Middle East and its implications for oil markets, global growth and geopolitical stability. Mr McNally warns that the world is adjusting to a major disruption in energy supply, with as much as 20 per cent of global energy flows affected. He argues that traditional policy responses are insufficient to offset a shock of this scale, describing the situation as a "math problem that is not solvable by the usual toolkit". In Mr McNally's view, a resolution depends on either a ceasefire or the degradation of Iran’s military capabilities, which would allow energy flows to resume. In the conversation, Mr Posen urges caution in interpreting the economic impact, arguing that policymakers should avoid overreacting. He emphasises that the global economy, particularly advanced economies, has shown resilience to past energy shocks. However, he highlights significant risks for emerging markets, where higher energy prices, weaker currencies and rising costs for food and fertiliser could lead to elevated inflation and economic strain. Mr Posen also outlines how central banks are expected to respond in the near term, saying they will remain on hold while monitoring inflation expectations and allowing price signals to work through the system before taking action.

In this episode of The Inside Brief with Manus Cranny, Allianz chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian shares his insights on monetary policy, market volatility and the challenges facing central banks in a rapidly changing global economy. Mr El-Erian discusses expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, arguing that markets continue to respond primarily to economic data rather than political narratives. He dismisses the idea that a change in Fed leadership would automatically result in an aggressive wave of cuts, emphasising that policymakers will deliver only what the data justifies. Reflecting on the Fed’s policy framework, Mr El-Erian calls for a “major reboot” after what he describes as the central bank’s inflation misjudgment in 2021. He warns that excessive reliance on backward looking indicators risks undermining policy effectiveness and credibility. The conversation also explores artificial intelligence as a structural economic shift rather than a passing trend, including how the UAE and the broader Gulf region are positioning themselves at the intersection of technology, capital and global competitiveness. On AI, Mr El-Erian describes himself as “one of the biggest bulls” on its productivity potential, while cautioning that the ultimate economic impact will depend on how companies use the technology. He contrasts an automation-driven mindset focused on labour displacement with a labour-augmenting approach aimed at enhancing worker productivity, arguing that AI’s true power lies in augmentation rather than replacement. Mr El-Erian reflects on his time as president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, describing it as the most satisfying role of his career. He highlights the privilege of witnessing students from challenging backgrounds fully embrace the opportunity of a Cambridge education and undergo visible personal transformation. On a personal level, Mr El-Erian discusses the influence of his father, recalling two formative lessons that shaped his worldview: the enduring value of education and the importance of engaging with a broad spectrum of perspectives. He explains how being encouraged from an early age to read widely across different viewpoints helped develop his ability to interpret complex economic and market dynamics. Asked about regrets, Mr El-Erian says he rues never having had the opportunity to serve as a true policymaker, noting that while he advised decision makers throughout his career, he never directly owned policy decisions.

In this episode of The Inside Brief, Mark Haefele, global chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, joins host Manus Cranny for a deep dive on how investors should navigate a world shaped increasingly by power, policy, and long term structural forces rather than short term market headlines. Mr Haefele reflects on the idea that geopolitical shocks often dominate news cycles but tend to have only brief market effects, while slower moving trends such as technology, government spending, and shifts in global power have a far greater influence on long term portfolio outcomes. He explains why investors must focus on how the world actually works today, rather than relying on assumptions rooted in a past era of free markets. The conversation explores how governments now play a more active role in directing capital and influencing outcomes, effectively picking winners and losers across sectors. Mr Haefele outlines what this means for asset allocation, sovereign debt, and currencies, cautioning investors against assuming that markets will always operate independently of political objectives. Mr Haefele also addresses the debate around artificial intelligence and whether markets are facing a bubble. He acknowledges that many companies in the AI space do not yet generate profits and rely on continued access to funding, but argues that this alone does not indicate an imminent collapse. In his view, strong earnings from AI adjacent companies, continuing capital investment, and government support suggest the theme still has momentum, even as risks increase and not all participants succeed. In a personal reflection, Mr Haefele recounts his experience during the events of 9/11 and how witnessing a decisive trading moment reshaped his understanding of his own strengths as an investor. He explains why recognising what you are not good at can be as important as knowing what you are, and why discipline, humility, and asset allocation matter more than trying to catch every market moment. The episode concludes with insights from Mr Haefele’s book The New Rules of Investing, where he argues that modern investors must rethink diversification, accept uncertainty, and follow the flow of capital shaped by policy, technology, and power rather than nostalgia for past market regimes.

In this special edition of The Inside Brief from Davos 2026, Waleed Al Muhairi, deputy group chief executive of Mubadala, joins host Manus Cranny to discuss how global investors are navigating a world defined by fragmentation rather than chaos. With more than $375 billion in assets under management, Mubadala sits at the centre of global capital flows and Mr Al Muhairi explains why long-term conviction, rather than market timing, has become the defining advantage for institutional investors. Mr Al Muhairi explains that Mubadala’s multi-engine investment model allows capital to move purposefully across private equity, private credit, infrastructure and global partnerships, adapting risk exposure without abandoning long-term strategy. Mr Al Muhairi also shares his highest conviction views as 2026 begins, highlighting continued opportunity in the US alongside growing allocations across Asia, including South Korea and India. The conversation explores the evolving role of artificial intelligence in investment decision-making. Mr Al Muhairi reveals that Mubadala now has an AI participant named MAIA in its investment committee process, using counterfactual analysis to challenge assumptions and test conviction. He describes AI as a force multiplier rather than a bubble, arguing that while valuations will fluctuate, innovation and infrastructure behind AI are only just beginning to reshape productivity. Looking closer to home, Mr Al Muhairi reflects on Abu Dhabi’s growing momentum as a global capital hub. He describes a powerful shift as families, businesses and financial institutions increasingly relocate to the UAE, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of capital, talent and opportunity. As a long-term steward of national capital, he emphasises the responsibility of investing not only for returns, but for the next generation and the continuing growth of the UAE economy.