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Election Day is right around the corner, and control of the U.S. Senate appears to be the biggest question surrounding the 2026 midterms. In Decision Desk HQ’s forecast, Democrats have about a 3 in 5 shot of capturing a majority, but need to flip a number of clearly red-leaning states to pull it off. To break down the Senate situation, DDHQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by two excellent elections experts: Jessica Taylor and J. Miles Coleman. Jessica is the Senate and Governors Editor at the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, and Miles is Associate Editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The trio ran through all the key Senate races, where things stand, and discuss some potential surprises. ---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► Jessica Taylor on X: https://x.com/JessicaTaylor► J. Miles Coleman on X: https://x.com/JMilesColeman► The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter: https://www.cookpolitical.com/► Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the UVA Center for Politics: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/---► DDHQ VOTES: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ Substack: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s Discord: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS1:04 Introducing Jessica, Miles, and Senate overview10:33 Kansas: More likely to flip than Iowa?14:50 South Carolina: What % will third-party candidates get?22:39 Michigan: Democrats’ Achilles heel?28:26 Maine: Can Collins outperform polls again?38:00 Alaska: Does ballot-stacking story hurt Peltola?42:14 Texas: Will Dallas-Forth Worth be key?46:47 Iowa: Is Hinson the strongest GOP candidate? 49:13 Ohio: Does Ramaswamy hurt Republican ticket?52:52 Conclusion: One other thing to watch in the Senate This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

DDHQ friend Chris Cillizza, who runs So What on Substack, was joined by Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley and Data Scientist Maddisen Murrell to talk about Decision Desk HQ’s 2026 election forecast. Democrats have close to a 4 in 5 shot of flipping the House. But the race to control the Senate is closer to a coin flip. We discussed a number of key races, including Senate contests in Kansas and New Hampshire, and House elections in Pennsylvania and Virginia. We plan to do at least one more update with Chris before the election, so keep an eye out for it! Subscribe to Decision Desk HQ’s Substack: ► Chris Cillizza on X: https://x.com/ChrisCillizza► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► So What: https://chriscillizza.substack.com ---► Find our forecast on DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ Substack: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s official Discord server: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS 00:00 Intro and how the forecast works02:32 Where the House and Senate forecasts stand09:47 New Hampshire Senate12:36 Idaho Senate16:01 Nebraska Senate17:44 Kansas Senate22:43 Kentucky’s 6th District31:00 Pennsylvania’s 10th District33:52 Pennsylvania’s 1st District36:14 How to measure incumbent strength41:58 Washington’s 3rd District45:23 Oregon governor49:11 What are the limitations of a forecast model?56:20 Virginia’s 1st, 2nd, and 5th districts1:03:04 Check out DDHQ’s VOTES Pro This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Election Day is less than two weeks away! In Decision Desk HQ’s forecast, Democrats have close to a 4 in 5 shot of capturing a U.S. House majority, with an average seat result of 236 for Democrats to 199 for Republicans — a 21-seat gain for Democrats from the GOP’s current 220-215 edge. But if Democrats are favored to capture the House, where exactly could they make gains?To dig into the House, DDHQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by two top-of-the-line experts: Erin Covey and Jacob Rubashkin! Erin is the House Editor at the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, and Jacob is Deputy Editor of Inside Elections. They explored different types of races, including bellwether seats to watch early in the night, incumbents who surprisingly might survive, and some unexpectedly interesting — even strange — contests that have popped up late in the campaign season.---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► Erin Covey on X: https://x.com/ercovey► Jacob Rubashkin on X: https://x.com/JacobRubashkin► The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter: https://www.cookpolitical.com/► Inside Elections: https://insideelections.com/---► DDHQ VOTES: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ Substack: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s Discord: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS00:00 Introducing Erin, Jacob, and the broad House picture07:57 Possible bellwether: Kentucky’s 6th District12:05 Possible bellwethers: Virginia and Florida districts19:01 Possible survivor: Rep. Don Davis (D) in NC-0124:05 Possible survivor: Vicente Gonzalez (D) in TX-3426:24 Unexpected survivor: Emanuel Cleaver (D) in MO-0127:55 Wait, what??: Wyoming’s At-Large District37:13 Unexpectedly in-play: New York’s 21st District42:04 Other possible surprises: Kansas’s 2nd District47:20 Other possible surprises: North Carolina’s 13th District49:28 Other possible surprises: Nevada’s 2nd District53:09 Fake polling and getting a read on races This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

The midterms are almost two weeks away. With so many pivotal races on the board, the Decision Desk HQ Podcast chatted with two reporters about what’s happening in a pair of key states: Alaska and Iowa.In the first part of the episode, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley speaks with James Brooks, state political reporter for the Alaska Beacon. They dug into Alaska’s high-profile Senate race between Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and former Rep. Mary Peltola, the leading Democrat, which will play a major role in deciding which party controls the Senate. They also chatted about Alaska’s under-discussed contest for governor, where former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins might be the first Democrat to win that office since 1998.In the second half, Geoffrey spoke with Brianne Pfannenstiel, the chief politics reporter at the Des Moines Register. They looked at Iowa’s much-watched Senate election between Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek, which is practically a pure toss-up in DDHQ’s forecast. Then they examined Iowa’s gubernatorial race, where Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand holds a lead and could become the first Democrat to win the governorship since 2006. ---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► James Brooks on X: https://x.com/AK_OK► Brianne Pfannenstiel on X: https://x.com/brianneDMR► Alaska Beacon: https://alaskabeacon.com► Des Moines Register: https://desmoinesregister.com---► DDHQ VOTES: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ Substack: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s Discord: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS00:00 Intro to episode02:16 Introducing James Brooks and Alaska09:19 Alaska Senate: Dan Sullivan a slight underdog?15:07 Peltola stories: Nice Mary vs. Moody Mary?22:16 Ranked-choice voting and the OTHER Dan Sullivan28:55 Alaska Governor: 1 Democrat vs. 3 Republican41:10 Introducing Brianne Pfannenstiel and Iowa49:55 Iowa Senate: Turek & Hinson position themselves1:00:32 Iowa Governor: Why Rob Sand is favored1:05:04 Zach Lahn, the unexpected GOP nominee1:10:51 Three competitive House races in Iowa This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

DDHQ friend Chris Cillizza, who runs So What on Substack, was joined by Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley and Data Scientist Maddisen Murrell to talk about Decision Desk HQ’s 2026 election forecast. Democrats now look more likely to capture the House, where they average a 235-200 majority across 1 million forecast simulations. But the battle for the Senate remains far more up in the air, as does a key gubernatorial race in Georgia. We’ll be doing a couple more weekly updates about the forecast with Chris ahead of the election, so keep an eye out for those episodes! Subscribe to Decision Desk HQ’s Substack: ► Chris Cillizza on X: https://x.com/ChrisCillizza► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► So What: https://chriscillizza.substack.com ---► Find our forecast on DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ Substack: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s official Discord server: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro and how the forecast works3:15 Where the House and Senate forecasts stand10:15 How many seats could each party win?17:00 Mississippi Senate23:02 Texas Governor31:28 Georgia Governor34:32 New York’s 17th District40:13 Chances that Democrats sweep Senate & House47:18 The perfect tool to watch the midterms This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

DDHQ friend Chris Cillizza, who runs So What on Substack, was joined by Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley and Data Scientist Maddisen Murrell to talk about Decision Desk HQ’s 2026 election forecast. The electoral environment has trended toward Democrats, which has helped make them clearer favorites in the House and very slight favorites in the battle for the Senate. More broadly, Democrats now have just above a 1 in 2 chance of sweeping both chambers. We’ll be doing regular updates about the forecast with Chris from now and until the election, so watch for future chats! ► Chris Cillizza on X: https://x.com/ChrisCillizza► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► So What: https://chriscillizza.substack.com ---► Find our forecast on DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► SUBSTACK: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► JOIN OUR OFFICIAL DISCORD SERVER: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro and overall forecast situation8:55 What if the polls are wrong?13:26 The perfect tool for Election Night17:02 Kansas Senate21:00 South Carolina Senate23:05 Arkansas Senate24:50 Florida Governor27:17 Texas Governor29:19 Texas Railroad Commissioner33:02 The forecast toplines This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

With the midterms rapidly approaching, this episode of the Decision Desk HQ podcast features not one, but two, guests! In the first part, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley chats with Jeremy Pelzer, the chief politics reporter of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, about the state's highly competitive Senate and gubernatorial elections. Ohio is one of the key swing states Democrats need to flip to win back the Senate. Data centers have emerged as a key issue in this campaign, and outside spending has been high. In the second half, he talks with Michael Shepherd, the political editor at the Bangor Daily News. They take a deep dive into Maine's contentious Senate race, where longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins is facing a tough national environment. Democrat Troy Jackson, the replacement for Graham Platner, is polling about even with Collins in what has become a must-win for both parties. ---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► Jeremy Pelzer on X: https://x.com/jpelzer► Michael Shepherd on X: https://x.com/mikeshepherdME► Bangor Daily News: https://bangordailynews.com► Cleveland Plain Dealer: https://cleveland.com---► DDHQ VOTES: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ Substack: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s Discord: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS2:00: Introducing Jeremy Pelzer and Ohio's elections11:05 Jon Husted, Sherrod Brown, and data centers19:15 Outside spending21:07 Governor election34:35: Introducing Mike Shepherd and Maine's elections38:04 Can Susan Collins overperform again?54:16 Troy Jackson's record and campaign1:01:52 Governor race This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Just two years after voting for President Trump by nearly 14 percentage points, Texas has become an unexpected frontline swing state. The Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton has drawn national attention, with polls and the DDHQ forecast both showing Talarico with a lead. Democrats haven't won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, but this may be their best chance since 2018.In this podcast, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley discusses the Texas Senate and gubernatorial elections with Gabby Birenbaum, Washington correspondent for The Texas Tribune.---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► Gabby Birenbaum on X: https://x.com/birenbomb► The Texas Tribune: https://www.texastribune.org---► DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ Substack: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s Discord: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS1:25 Introducing Gabby Birenbaum3:35 Latino voters and Texas in 202610:06 Talarico and suburban voters15:43 Paxton’s challenges18:42 Fundraising, spending, and polling24:10 Texas governor and the rise of Hinojosa29:48 Key issue: data centers35:07 Downballot consequences of these races37:28 What would a Talarico win mean? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

With all primaries done and dusted, it is now indisputably general election time. But we have two late developments that will affect the 2026 electoral picture. First, Republicans had drawn a new gerrymander in Missouri, but a series of federal and state court decisions appear likely to restore the state’s old, less GOP-leaning congressional lines. Second, the Supreme Court blocked President Donald Trump’s executive order to restrict mail voting. Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley discussed these two developments with Nathaniel Rakich, the managing editor of Votebeat. Votebeat is a nonpartisan news site devoted to covering the nuts and bolts of how elections and voting work in the United States. ---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► Nathaniel Rakich on X: https://x.com/baseballot► Votebeat: votebeat.org► Votebeat newsletters: https://www.votebeat.org/newsletters/---► DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ Substack: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s Discord: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS0:41 Introducing Nathaniel Rakich & our topics2:31 Missouri’s redistricting saga10:19 Republicans’ last-ditch effort in Missouri15:23 A red-state redistricting veto referendum23:59 Missouri’s other big ballot initiative27:41 SCOTUS blocks President Trump’s executive order32:10 The executive order and how people vote38:57 Other election issues Votebeat is monitoring This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

DDHQ friend Chris Cillizza, who runs So What on Substack, was joined by Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley and Data Scientist Maddisen Murrell to talk about Decision Desk HQ’s 2026 election forecast. The race for the Senate is now a coin flip, so we discussed some of the key races there, including Texas and Iowa. We also touched on Missouri’s redistricting situation. We’ll be doing regular updates about the forecast with Chris every couple of weeks from now and until the election, so be on the lookout for future chats! ► Chris Cillizza on X: https://x.com/ChrisCillizza► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► So What: https://chriscillizza.substack.com---► Find our forecast on DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► SUBSTACK: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► JOIN OUR OFFICIAL DISCORD SERVER: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq --- CHAPTERS 1:29 How does the forecast work4:10 The Senate is a dead heat8:58 Democrats still favored in the House13:40 Audience asks: Talarico (D) favored in Texas Senate?20:42 Audience asks: Hinson (R) favored in Iowa Senate?24:29 Audience asks: GOP more secure in Florida Senate?32:30 Audience asks: Independent have path in South Dakota Senate?39:02 Audience asks: Missouri’s redistricting situation This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Midterms aren’t just about the race for Congress. Thirty-six states will also elect their governors, making this the main venue for deciding who will lead most of the 50 states. With this in mind, Decision Desk HQ recently added a gubernatorial forecast to better gauge what’s happening in these important races. Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Data Scientist Maddisen Murrell and Data Science intern Jake Marks to talk about the new forecast. They discussed how it works and dug into what the forecast says about 2026’s most competitive and interesting gubernatorial contests. ---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► Governor Forecast: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/governor► DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ Substack: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s Discord: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq --- CHAPTERS2:16 Introducing Madison, Jake, and the 2026 map3:57 Governor vs. Senate dynamics, highlighting Texas10:05 Role of prediction markets in governor forecast17:10 Generic ballot and the electoral environment19:45 Candidate quality and Oregon’s race23:43 Georgia: polls vs. Rick Jackson’s money31:05 Kansas: the GOP’s best pickup chance35:55 Iowa: A Dem governor-GOP Senate split?40:57 Nevada: Gov. Joe Lombardo has slight edge43:46 Ohio: Polls and markets suggest Democrats have a shot48:12 Alaska: Multiple candidates from same party This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Three decades ago, Bob Dole’s 1996 bid for the White House became the first presidential campaign to have a website. But nowadays, campaigns use a huge range of tools to engage supporters, raise money, win over persuadable voters, and gain an edge over their competitors. To discuss some challenges faced by modern campaigns, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Eric Wilson, the executive director of the Center for Campaign Innovation. The Center puts together regular reports, including conducting its own field experiments, about how technological innovations can help campaigns. Eric is himself a veteran of many political campaigns, and he also runs the Campaign Trend newsletter.---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► Eric Wilson on X: https://x.com/ericwilson► Center for Campaign Innovation: https://campaigninnovation.org/► Campaign Trend newsletter: https://campaigntrend.com---► DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ SUBSTACK: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s DISCORD: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS1:42 Introducing Eric Wilson, Center for Campaign Innovation3:52 Changing digital space around campaigns6:44 Social media, authenticity & campaign work (Mamdani vs. Pratt)10:45 Differences between the parties’ use of digital tools15:31 Democrats’ current edge in email deliverability 25:27 Field experiment in direct mail to boost GOP turn out31:58 Text messaging to make canvassing more effective36:44 Looking for any edge & maximizing campaign efficiencies This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Democrats have closed the gap in Decision Desk HQ’s Senate forecast. Their chances have particularly been boosted by strong polls in red-leaning states like Ohio, Alaska, Texas, and Iowa. But is there reason to doubt some of this positive polling news for Democrats?To dig into that question, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Patrick Ruffini, a founding partner at the Republican firm Echelon Insights. Patrick recently published an analysis on his Substack, The Intersection, that found Senate polls in recent cycles have tended to overstate Democratic performance relative to the final outcome — especially in some of the red-leaning states that Democrats need to win. ---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► Patrick Ruffini on X: https://x.com/PatrickRuffini► The Intersection on Substack: https://patrickruffini.com/---► DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ SUBSTACK: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► JOIN DDHQ’s OFFICIAL DISCORD SERVER: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq ---CHAPTERS1:35 Introducing Patrick and his findings7:00 Error in midterms vs. presidential cycles13:45 Competitive races with more polling aren’t immune16:20 The redder the state, the worst the error19:24 Potential demographic explanations for error27:20 Error by state: Texas, Ohio, and elsewhere31:12 What this could mean for the 2026 Senate map36:10 What to make of Alaska43:05 Maine and Susan Collins, the overperformer This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

DDHQ friend Chris Cillizza, who runs So What on Substack, was nice enough to have two members of the DDHQ team on a Substack Live conversation about our 2026 election forecast. Chris was joined by Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley and Data Science Fellow Maddisen Murrell to talk about the big picture and some specific U.S. Senate and U.S. House races. We’ll be doing this regularly every couple of weeks from now and until the election, so be on the lookout for more updates! ► Chris Cillizza on X: https://x.com/ChrisCillizza► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► So What: https://chriscillizza.substack.com---► Find our forecast on DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► SUBSTACK: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► JOIN OUR OFFICIAL DISCORD SERVER: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq --- CHAPTERS 1:00 How does the forecast work8:05 The overall Senate picture11:50 Probability and range of outcomes in the Senate forecast17:07 Six key races in Maine, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Alaska, and Michigan22:00 The overall House picture25:34 Polling averages and credible polls28:06 Use of prediction markets30:05 Audience questions This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

With the rise of democratic socialism on the left and populism on the right, there has been substantial discussion about how Gen Z will impact the future of American politics. Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Rachel Janfaza of The Up and Up about what Gen Z voters think about the term “socialism,” as well as the issues — especially economic worries — that are helping drive their views. ---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs ► Rachel Janfaza on X: https://x.com/racheljanfaza ► The Up and Up on Substack: https://www.theupandup.us/ --- ► DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/ ► SUBSTACK: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/ ► JOIN OUR OFFICIAL DISCORD SERVER: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq --- CHAPTERS 2:08 Introducing Rachel Janfaza and The Up and Up 5:57 Gen Z views on socialism, capitalism, and communism 18:35 Gen Z views on the political establishment 27:15 Gen Z worries about the future and the economy 39:14 How swingy are Gen Z voters? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com