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Introduction In this episode of Thematic Edge, Marvin Barth and Mark Farrington revisit the “resolution window” stretching from the summer through the US midterm elections examine what market signals we’ve gleaned so far. They assess the latest inflation data and central bank decisions, the changing shape of the US Treasury curve, Scott Bessent’s management of the bond market and the strength of corporate earnings. They also examine the growing anxiety surrounding AI, from regulation to US-China competition to the rapidly expansion of financing needs for the investment boom. They note that many of the outcomes feared have so far failed to materialise. Earnings remain strong, Treasury markets have stabilised and capital investment is broader than the “only-AI” narrative suggests. Yet uncertainty remains as the US midterm elections approach and political narratives are approaching a crescendo. The challenge for investors is separating noise from signal. Key themes • The resolution windowMarvin and Mark assess the major events that have passed since their last discussion and whether the balance of evidence is beginning to shift. • Inflation remains stickyThe latest CPI reading was widely characterised as “hot”, but both question that interpretation but agree that inflation expectations remain sufficiently elevated to require further tightening. • Central banks still have work to doThe Fed, Bank of Japan and ECB are all signalling that they may finally understand that their inflation problems have not disappeared, even if their approaches and communication differ. • Bessent and the Treasury curveThe discussion examines how Treasury Secretary Bessent’s buybacks and clear communications have helped improve liquidity and anchor the long end of the US yield curve, drawing institutional investors back to the market. • US China relationsAhead of further talks between Washington and Beijing, Marvin and Mark consider where cooperation remains possible amid continued strategic competition, particularly around trade, technology and managing the dangers of AI. • The AI financing boomAI borrowing has increased dramatically, creating genuine competition for capital. But set against sovereign borrowing and pre-financing being assembled by institutional investors to extend the boom, the picture is more positive than many narratives imply. • The investment boom is broader than AICapital expenditure, manufacturing investment and earnings strength extend well beyond hyperscalers and the Magnificent Seven. The US investment story began before generative AI and remains much broader. • Earnings versus the wall of worryCorporate earnings continue to surprise positively. Marvin and Mark discuss why strong fundamentals can coexist with persistent bearish narratives and how investors should interpret that divergence. • Noise, politics and resolution eventsAs the US midterms approach, political narratives are likely to become increasingly prominent. The discussion focuses on how investors can distinguish those narratives from underlying economic and market signals. Timestamps 00:00 The resolution window revisited03:25 Inflation, the Fed and the global central bank cycle16:06 Treasury fair value, term premia and Scott Bessent23:05 US Japan and US China relations29:26 Earnings continue to surprise33:20 AI risk, regulation and strategic competition39:19 AI financing and competition for capital46:19 Why the investment boom is broader than AI52:04 Trading the wall of worry59:01 Global bifurcation and what comes next Further reading Missing Productivity, Thematic Markets, 3 June 2026Why the US productivity and investment boom began before generative AI and extends far beyond the technology sector. The US outlook takes shape, Thematic Markets, 21 August 2025Marvin’s framework for stronger than expected US growth, persistent inflation and a broader capital expenditure boom. Global Entropy: Enter the dragons, Thematic Markets, 9 November 2023The foundation of the Global bifurcation thesis and the emerging strategic competition between the Western and Chinese centred economic systems. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thematicmarkets.substack.com/subscribe

Introduction In this episode of Thematic Edge, Marvin Barth and Mark Farrington reunite to examine what is really driving the rise in sovereign bond yields around the world. Their central argument is that the move is bigger than fiscal policy or any single government: capital is becoming more expensive as investment demand rises, global savings come under pressure and central banks struggle to rebuild credibility. The conversation moves from Kevin Warsh’s first months at the Federal Reserve and the bond market response to the Iran war, to Treasury buybacks, FX intervention and the structural effects of Localization. Looking ahead, they map out what Mark calls the “mother of all resolution windows”, spanning the September Fed and Bank of Japan meetings, the Trump Xi summit, Q3 earnings, and the US midterm elections. They finish with the market implications, including why the yen may offer one of the clearest ways to trade the path to resolution. Key themes * Competition for capital: Rising investment demand, from Localization, defence spending, energy infrastructure, and AI datacenters, is colliding with pressure on global savings. The result is structurally higher real yields and steeper sovereign yield curves. * Fed credibility: Kevin Warsh’s first months as Chair have left bond markets in “trust but verify” mode. The September meeting now poses a difficult test as softer inflation data collides with the Fed’s need to restore credibility. * Looking through shocks: The Iran war demonstrated why central banks can no longer assume markets will simply look through supply shocks. With credibility already depleted, geopolitical shocks are feeding more directly into inflation and term premia. * Bond market intervention: Treasury buybacks and currency intervention are examined as tools for improving liquidity and influencing market behaviour, rather than evidence of covert QE or an impending Treasury market crisis. * The mother of all resolution windows: The Fed and BOJ meetings, the Trump Xi summit, Q3 earnings, and the US midterms create a sequence of events that will determine the ultimate direction for the dollar, equities and global rates. * Equities compete for savings too: Strong US returns to capital continue to attract global savings, while growing corporate debt issuance places companies in more direct competition with sovereign borrowers for capital. * The yen reversal: A more hawkish BOJ and movement towards neutral rates could finally break the yen carry trade, creating the conditions for a sharper fall in dollar-yen and potentially more supportive conditions for Japanese assets. Episode recorded: 8 September 2025 Timestamps 00:00 Introduction: Why global yields are rising 02:30 Marking Kevin Warsh and the Fed to market 04:04 The Treasury sell off and steepening yield curve 07:20 Bond markets move to “trust but verify” 11:30 Why the September Fed meeting matters 20:09 Central bank credibility and the Iran shock 22:11 The structural competition for capital 23:40 Localization, investment and higher real yields 26:53 Treasury buybacks and yen intervention 30:47 Why higher yields do not necessarily signal crisis 35:24 The “mother of all resolution windows” 38:11 US earnings, equities and the dollar 40:48 CPI and the September Fed decision 42:36 Why equities also compete for global savings 43:45 What to expect from the Trump Xi summit 46:34 Is the Fed becoming untradeable? 50:51 The case for a yen reversal 54:57 Japan, capital flows and positive contagion 56:39 Europe and the US election: what comes next Further Reading * Observations: Marking to market, Thematic Markets, 8 September 2026 * The velvet glove, Thematic Markets, 20 June 2026 * Themistocles’ lesson for the Fed, Thematic Markets, 8 May 2026 * Alea iacta est, Thematic Markets, 23 March 2026 * What debasement? (Debasement Part II), Thematic Markets, 8 March 2026 * May you live in interesting times, The Devil, Thematic Markets, 5 January 2024 * The Politics of Rage, Barclays 2016 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thematicmarkets.substack.com/subscribe

Introduction In this episode of The Thematic Edge, Marvin Barth and Mark Farrington speak with Alexander Stahel, Chief Investment Officer of Burggraben Holdings and author of The Commodity Compass, about an emerging crisis in global petroleum product markets. The conversation examines how the war with Iran, Ukraine’s increasingly sophisticated attacks on Russian refining infrastructure and China’s focus on domestic energy security have combined to create severe pressure in diesel, gasoline and jet fuel markets. They explore how Ukraine’s strategy has moved beyond damaging Russian energy infrastructure to disrupting the economic and political networks that sustain the Russian state. The discussion also considers whether these pressures could destabilise the regime, or instead strengthen the patronage system around it. Key themes * A global petroleum product crisis: Why the real pressure is in diesel, gasoline and jet fuel rather than crude oil. * China’s strategic energy reserves: How China’s inventories helped absorb the initial shock, and why Beijing may not use its spare refining capacity to support global markets. * Ukraine’s refinery strategy: How targeted drone attacks on critical equipment are causing lasting damage to Russia’s refining system. * Russia’s domestic fuel shortage: Why Russia is moving from a major exporter of refined products towards gasoline and diesel deficits at home. * Why refined products cannot be easily replaced: How crude quality, refinery design and established supply routes limit substitution. * The Siloviki system: How fuel shortages interact with the patronage networks that underpin Russia’s political economy. * The Russian endgame: Whether economic disruption could destabilise the regime or strengthen by increasing the power of patronage. * A perfect storm for diesel and gasoline: How Russian disruption, Middle Eastern supply risks and limited spare refining capacity are tightening global markets. Episode recorded 21 July 2026 Timestamps 00:00 Introduction to Alexander Stahel and The Commodity Compass 02:58 Alexander’s background and commodity investment approach 06:43 Why he created The Commodity Compass 10:28 The Iran war and the global energy market 12:24 Why the disruption has not yet produced a larger oil price shock 13:26 China’s inventories and their role in stabilising the market 17:04 Algorithmic trading, oil futures and the physical market 19:51 China’s approach to refined product imports and exports 26:12 Ukraine’s changing strategy against Russian energy infrastructure 27:23 Mykhailo Fedorov and the transformation of Ukrainian drone warfare 29:48 Why targeting critical refinery equipment matters 31:22 Russia’s dependence on Western refinery technology 35:16 The decline in Russian refining capacity 36:27 How Ukraine selects its refinery targets 38:47 Russia’s emerging gasoline and diesel shortages 40:28 What global markets have lost from Russian product exports 41:44 Why established fuel supply chains are difficult to replace 43:42 The Siloviki system and Russia’s political economy 51:33 Whether economic disruption weakens or strengthens the regime 53:00 Ukraine’s strategy and the possible Russian endgame 58:00 Public criticism, elite tensions and potential political tipping points 01:03:22 The greatest risks facing global energy markets 01:04:01 The global petroleum product crisis 01:05:59 Whether China could relieve the shortage 01:07:22 Red Sea shipping risks and the Houthis 01:08:09 The perfect storm for diesel and gasoline 01:09:00 The Strait of Hormuz and the outlook for product markets Further reading * Observations: Dazed and confused, Thematic Markets, 10 April 2026 Why the ceasefire may have been a strategic pause, including the need to release tankers trapped inside the Persian Gulf and prepare for renewed conflict. * Perspective, Seriously, Marvin?!, 8 April 2026 Eight potential paths for the Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz and global energy markets, viewed through the history of major supply shocks. * Alea iacta est, Thematic Markets 23 March 2026: How the Iran war and insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz could reshape global energy flows, alliances and market risks. * Global entropy: Dragons challenged, Seriously, Marvin?!, 16 September 2025: How changing US foreign policy, China and Russia are accelerating global fragmentation and increasing geopolitical tail risks. * Observations: Revealed preference meets real limits, Part III, Thematic Markets, 4 November 2024: The constraints that emerge when political and strategic preferences collide with economic and physical limits. * Global entropy: Enter the dragons, Thematic Markets, 9 November 2023: The strategic foundations of the emerging global order and China’s efforts to secure the resources required to withstand geopolitical disruption. * Wagner’s lessons, Thematic Markets, 14 July 2023: What the Wagner rebellion revealed about the fragility, patronage networks and internal power structures of the Russian state. The Commodity Compass, Alexander Stahel’s Substack, featuring detailed research into commodity markets, energy supply chains and the structure of global petroleum markets. The Great Product Squeeze; The World is Running on Empty, Alexander Stahel, 21 July 2026: Slide show referred to in this episode. Note: All links above point to thematicmarkets.com, now the home of the complete Thematic Markets archive, including research, podcasts and commentary. Existing paid Thematic Markets Substack subscribers can continue to access the same research through Substack. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thematicmarkets.substack.com/subscribe

In episode 020 of Thematic Edge, Marvin Barth and Mark Farrington consider the broader implications of the European Central Bank’s retreat in Sintra, Portugal where there seemed to be shift in global central bank philosophy led by new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and his drive to end the practice of forward guidance. Marvin and Mark discuss what the end of forward guidance means for near-term Fed policy and markets, and how Sintra may have helped Chairman Warsh push a rate hike back home. They also discuss how forward guidance and increasingly activist monetary policy changed market behavior — for the worse — and what the withdrawal symptoms are likely to be. The conversation concludes with the implications for interest rates, volatility, and the US dollar versus both G10 and emerging market currencies. Key themes * Why the Sintra conference suggested a global shift back towards traditional central banking. * Kevin Warsh’s rejection of forward guidance and what it means for markets. * How forward guidance evolved from an emergency tool into permanent policy. * Why suppressing volatility ultimately encouraged excessive leverage. * The relationship between credibility, optionality and monetary policy. * Whether markets have become too dependent on central bank signalling. * The outlook for US interest rates under the new Federal Reserve. * Why Marvin and Mark remain constructive on the US dollar. * Regional implications for Europe, Japan, North Asia and emerging markets. Timestamps 00:00 Introduction 02:00 What Sintra revealed about the future of central banking 08:00 Kevin Warsh, Greenspan and the end of monetary activism 16:00 The rise and fall of forward guidance 20:00 Why forward guidance should only be an emergency tool 26:00 Volatility, leverage and market behaviour 33:00 What the latest economic data means for Fed policy 37:00 Why real interest rates are not restrictive 40:00 The bullish case for the US dollar 45:00 North Asia, Latin America and emerging market currencies 55:00 Geopolitics and the outlook for emerging markets Further Reading 📖 The velvet glove, Thematic Markets, 20 June 2026 [Free article] What we learned from Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed chairman 📖 Warsh cycle, Part I, Thematic Markets, 10 June 2026 What to expect from the Warsh Fed in its first few meetings. 📖 What debasement (Debasement Part II), Thematic Markets, 8 March 2026 Countering the dollar debasement myth with facts & forecasting its future path 📖 Weighing Warsh, Seriously Marvin, 11 February 2026 Hawk or dove? Or just a return to orthodox policies? 📖 Observations: Goshawks, Thematic Markets, 4 December 2025 Markets and the commentariat don’t expect a hawk, but Kevin Warsh is coming. 📖 A hawk in dove’s clothing, Seriously Marvin, 1 July 2025 Leave President Trump’s rhetoric to the side: he’s incentivized to choose a hawk for Fed chairman 📖 Fiscal dominance: narratives versus reality, Seriously Marvin, 25 November 2025 Forget about fiscal dominance, it’s regulatory dominance driving the Fed’s balance sheet 📖 Regulatory arbitrage, Seriously Marvin, 18 December 2025 The battle for the Fed isn’t primarily about interest rates; its about bank regulation 📖 The presidents problem, Seriously Marvin, 25 February 2026 Don’t forget that Federal Reserve Presidents also play an important role in monetary and banking policy 📖 Train wreck, Seriously Marvin, 23 September 2025 Jerome Powell will go down in history as one of the Fed’s worst chairmen, objectively 📖 The Fed fumbles, Thematic Markets, 20 September 2024 The Fed’s rushed policy rate cuts were a mistake that further tarnishes their credibility 📖 Leitmotif 4: The Fed sheds cred, Thematic Markets, 17 January 2025 The Fed has a lot of work to do to restore its credibility. 📖 Everything you know about QE is wrong, Thematic Markets, 24 February 2026 QE isn’t the market support many believe; nor will QT have a significant negative effect 📖 The employment situation, Thematic Markets, 29 September 2025 Both the Fed and markets overestimate the softness of US labor markets This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thematicmarkets.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of Thematic Edge, Marvin Barth and Mark Farrington sit down with Arthur Hayes to explore one of the most important questions in crypto today: what ultimately gives Bitcoin value? While all three agree that liquidity, monetary policy and sovereign incentives shape markets, they discuss their differences in evaluating fundamental value. Arthur Hayes is one of the most influential figures in the history of cryptocurrency. He co-founded BitMEX, once the world’s largest crypto derivatives exchange, pioneered the perpetual swap contract that now dominates crypto trading, and helped build one of the industry’s first unicorns. Today he serves as Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom, his family office, where he combines analysis of macroeconomic analysis, liquidity and market psychology to navigate both crypto and “TraFi” (traditional finance) markets. The conversation ranges from Hayes’ background, how his early experience during the Global Financial Crisis helped shape his view, to Bitcoin’s relationship with gold, the future of stablecoins and payment rails, the institutionalisation of crypto, the politics of digital assets after FTX, and why Donald Trump embraced the sector. The discussion spans the modern global political economy, how it shapes digital assets values, and how they integrate with traditional macro trading. Key themes • Arthur Hayes’ journey from traditional finance to founding BitMEX and inventing the perpetual swap. • How the Global Financial Crisis shaped his views on central banks, liquidity and financial markets. • Why Hayes believes almost every asset class is ultimately a bet on future money printing. • Bitcoin as “technology plus liquidity” and why liquidity dominates valuation. • The debate between liquidity-driven and adoption-driven models of Bitcoin value and how they interact. • Whether Bitcoin is money, an asset, digital gold, or something entirely different. • Why Bitcoin differs fundamentally from traditional finance because it cannot be bailed out. • The similarities and differences between Bitcoin and gold. • Whether Bitcoin adoption is approaching saturation. • The impact of ETFs and institutional ownership on Bitcoin’s future. • Why network usage and transaction activity matter for Bitcoin’s long term value. • Stablecoins, payment rails and the future of the dollar system. • Why the Democrats turned against crypto after FTX. • Why Trump embraced crypto and what that means for the industry. • How geopolitics increasingly influences cryptocurrency markets. Timestamps 00:00 Introduction 03:30 Arthur Hayes’ background and arrival in Hong Kong 06:30 Lehman Brothers and the lessons of the Global Financial Crisis 08:50 Discovering Bitcoin and founding BitMEX 11:00 Macro investing, David Dredge and tail risk 16:45 Everything is a liquidity trade 20:00 Bitcoin valuation: technology plus liquidity 23:00 Bitcoin versus gold 24:45 Adoption, saturation and valuing Bitcoin 27:20 Why adoption may matter less than investors think 30:00 ETFs, institutionalisation and Bitcoin’s future 33:00 Sovereigns and strategic Bitcoin reserves 34:00 Payment rails, transaction fees and network sustainability 37:00 FTX and the politics of crypto 39:30 Why Trump embraced crypto 41:00 Bitcoin, geopolitics and the future of digital assets Further Reading 📖 21 Million And Other Myths Of Value, Seriously Marvin, 17 June 2026A critique of three core Bitcoin narratives: fixed supply, power law pricing and inevitable debt monetisation. 📖 Valuing Bitcoin, Thematic Markets, 29 May 2026A novel epidemiological model of Bitcoin adoption, valuation and long run macro drivers. The framework challenged directly during this conversation. 📖 What Debasement?, Thematic Markets, 8 March 2026Why the dollar’s position may be stronger than many crypto investors assume, and how stablecoins reinforce dollar dominance. 📖 Easy Money, Seriously Marvin, 29 July 2025How liquidity creation, monetary policy and financial conditions drive asset prices, often in ways investors misunderstand. 📖 Revolutionary Money and Banking, Thematic Markets, 27 June 2025How technological innovation is reshaping money, banking and financial intermediation. 📖 A Monetary Revolution in the Making, Seriously Marvin, 23 June 2025Examines the growing role of stablecoins, digital assets and alternative payment systems in the global monetary order. 📖 Stand and Deliver: your crypto or your life, Seriously Marvin, 3 June 2025Why payment rails, financial sovereignty and control of transactions may matter more than reserve currency status in the next phase of geopolitical competition. 📖 The Geopolitics of Crypto (Payments), Thematic Markets, 23 Jan 2025Why independent payment rails may become a strategic battleground between the United States and China. Subscribe to ThematicMarkets.com This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thematicmarkets.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of Thematic Edge, Marvin Barth and Mark Farrington examine whether central banks are finally being forced to confront a changing inflation regime. They argue that policymakers have been too willing to look through supply shocks, too focused on protecting growth, and too slow to respond to rising inflation expectations. The discussion centers on the arrival of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and whether his appointment signals a broader shift in central banking philosophy around the world. Key themes • Why central banks may have misread the inflationary consequences of the Hormuz shock • The distinction between market-based inflation expectations and consumer inflation expectations • Why inflation credibility matters more in temporary supply shocks • How years of prioritising growth protection may have left central banks behind the curve • The case for a global regime change in monetary policy • Whether Kevin Warsh represents a decisive break from the Powell era • Why markets may be underpricing the risk of Fed rate hikes • The challenge of restoring credibility after repeated inflation forecasting errors • How Warsh could reshape the Fed through committee dynamics, communication, staffing and governance • The tension between Fed independence, politics and inflation control • Why a simpler, fact based policy statement could force greater accountability within the FOMC Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and the global central bank backdrop 01:30 The policy response to the Hormuz shock 05:00 Inflation expectations versus market pricing 09:00 How central banks became overly focused on growth risks 10:45 The emerging global monetary policy regime change 14:00 Kevin Warsh and the future direction of the Fed 18:00 Why current policy settings may be too loose 22:00 Why markets are underpricing rate hikes 31:00 How Warsh could change Fed communications 35:00 The case for a fact based FOMC statement 42:00 Groupthink, dissents and institutional reform 48:00 The hidden powers of the Fed Chair 53:00 Governance, staffing and the mechanics of regime change Further Reading 📖 Warsh cycle, Part I, Thematic Markets, 10 Jun 2026: What to expect from the Warsh Fed in his first few meetings. 📖 Everything you know about QE is wrong, Thematic Markets, 24 Feb 2026: Kevin Warsh’s expected Fed balance-sheet reduction is central to the outlook for U.S. rates, the dollar, and asset prices in 2026–27. 📖 Observations: Goshawks, Thematic Markets, 4 Dec 2025: Implications are a more hawkish Fed than markets expect with a strong focus on reform of the institution, including downsizing the balance sheet and bank deregulation. 📖 Themistocles' lesson for the Fed, Seriously Marvin, 8 May 2026: The Fed’s independence problems are of its own making. Speech given at the Hover Institute’s Monetary Policy conference. 📖 Weighing Warsh, Seriously Marvin, 11 May 2026: Warsh is a hawk, but the real difference is philosophical. 📖 The bank that swallowed a fly, Seriously Marvin, 2 Dec 2025: Why Basel III regulations helped create the Fed's oversized balance sheet and why reformers such as Warsh want to change it. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thematicmarkets.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of Thematic Edge, Marvin and Mark examine the evolving Iran conflict, the shift in US strategic thinking, and the emerging logic of trying to “make business not war” amid Global bifurcation. The discussion explores why the expected energy shock hasn’t been as severe as projected, how the US has pivoted toward a maritime containment strategy, and why the US has shifted its focus to controlling global choke points. Marvin and Mark also examine China’s hoarding strategy across commodities, reserves, collateral, and logistics, arguing that Beijing has spent years building buffers for a low trust world. The conversation then turns to the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, where geopolitics, industrial policy, and statecraft increasingly blurred together. Was the real message less about headline issues and more about resolving how to keep the peace between two sharply differing models of national power? Finally, the episode explores the deeper implications of a world shifting from globalisation toward resilience, redundancy, strategic stockpiling, and selective interoperability. Key Themes • Iran and the shift from rapid conflict to maritime containment • Why the anticipated energy shock has been less severe • Strategic reserves, redundancy, and resilience as statecraft • Maritime choke points and US sea denial strategy • Europe’s continued vulnerability to geopolitical shocks • China’s hoardingstrategy across energy, metals, gold, and collateral • The emergence of a more transactional, “zero trust” global economy • Sinodollar dynamics and China’s evolving reserve architecture • What Trump’s Beijing business delegation really represented • Multi-domain competition between the US and China • Public private partnership as a strategic response to China • The limits of globalisation and the rise of Global bifurcation Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and framing the Iran conflict 02:00 Why the conflict evolved differently than expected 05:20 Maritime strategy and the logic of containment 07:00 Strategic reserves and why the energy shock was muted 10:00 Trump as trader and adaptive strategist 14:30 Maritime choke points and sea denial strategy 17:40 Which countries were prepared and which were exposed 22:00 Resilience, self sufficiency, and diversification strategies 29:45 “Make business, not war” and trustless trade 32:40 The Trump-Xi summit and G2 dynamics 37:00 Industrial policy and America’s business “entourage” 42:50 China’s mitigation strategy and strategic hoarding 46:00 CBDCs, atomic settlement, and China’s buffer model 49:00 The Sinodollar thesis explained 52:00 Euroclear, custody diversification, and reserve strategy 55:00 Final reflections and preview of Kevin Warsh discussion Further Reading To explore the framework behind these arguments in more depth, see Marvin Barth’s recent work: Observations: Dazed and confused, 10 April 2026 Alea iacta est, 23 March 2026 Leitmotif 9: It’s not the economy, stupid!, 24 January 2025 Leitmotif 3: Localization and Global bifurcation, 16 January 2025 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thematicmarkets.substack.com/subscribe

In this special episode of Thematic Edge, recorded around the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference at Stanford University, Marvin Barth explores why the greatest risks to Federal Reserve independence may be the Fed’s own policy errors, institutional overconfidence, and expanding mandate. Through conversations with leading economists, former policymakers, and Fed officials, the discussion examines the growing tension between fiscal sustainability, monetary policy, bank regulation, and political control. Key themes * Why central bank independence ultimately depends on fiscal credibility and political legitimacy * How overreliance on economic models weakened the Fed’s ability to understand structural change and real economy conditions * The growing overlap between monetary policy, fiscal dominance, and bank regulation * Why the Fed’s expanded role as a bank regulator has made the institution a political target in its own right * John Cochrane explains the fiscal theory of the price level and why inflation ultimately reflects confidence in government solvency * Historical parallels between fiscal stress, money creation, and political pressure on central banks * Why the next battleground for control of the Federal Reserve may be the regional reserve banks rather than the Board itself * Michael Bordo’s warning that rapid deregulation without institutional safeguards could recreate the instability of earlier banking eras * Randy Quarles and Darrell Duffie explain why meaningful balance sheet reduction and banking reform could take a decade or more * The operational and political constraints preventing a rapid unwind of the Fed’s post crisis framework * Marvin Barth’s argument that the Fed’s credibility problems stem not only from policy mistakes, but from an institutional unwillingness to confront and reform them Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and reflections from the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference 01:03 Why economists are still debating the structure and role of central banks 01:37 Political economy, real world complexity, and the limits of economic models 02:40 How expanding mandates have diluted the Fed’s focus on price stability 03:20 Fiscal dominance and the risks to central bank independence 03:54 John Cochrane on the fiscal theory of the price level 07:35 Why rising debt and deficits increase political pressure on the Fed 10:39 Historical lessons on Fed independence and political influence 11:25 The battle for control of regional reserve banks and bank regulation 12:43 Michael Bordo’s warning on deregulation and banking instability 13:48 Randy Quarles on why meaningful deregulation and balance sheet reform may take a decade 23:21 Darrell Duffie on the operational realities of shrinking the Fed balance sheet 28:39 Marvin Barth’s concluding remarks on policy errors, hubris, and institutional reform Further Reading To explore the framework behind these arguments in more depth, see Marvin Barth’s recent work. 📖 Themistocles’ Lessons for the Fed, The Fed’s independence problems are of its own making, Seriously Marvin?!, 8 May 2026 📖 Everything You Know About QE Is Wrong,Preparing for Fed balance sheet reduction requires a reality check, Thematic Markets, 24 February 2026 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thematicmarkets.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of Thematic Edge, Marvin Barth and Mark Farrington are joined by Danny Dayen for a wide ranging debate on inflation, monetary policy, and whether the Federal Reserve is now behind the curve. The discussion begins from an unusual point of agreement. Both Marvin and Danny argue the Fed has committed a sequence of policy errors that risks overheating the US economy and reigniting inflation. But from there, important differences emerge, especially over the likely conduct of a Warsh Fed, the role of balance sheet policy, and whether supply shocks now require an explicitly hawkish monetary response. The conversation explores inflation expectations, neutral rates, oil shocks, financial conditions and whether repeated supply disruptions have shifted the global inflation regime itself. It is also a rare compare and contrast episode, with Mark pressing both Danny and Marvin on where they agree, where they diverge, and what markets may be missing. Key Themes 1. Fed policy errors and the overheat thesisWhy both guests believe rates are below neutral, why inflation risks may be underestimated, and why passive easing may now be worsening the problem. 2. Inflation expectations as the central battlegroundHow inflation expectations have become structurally unanchored, and why this changes how supply shocks should be treated. 3. Central banks constrained by past errors in responding to supply shocksFrom oil and labour shortages to tariffs and critical minerals, the case that repeated shocks and de-anchored inflation expectations may limit central banks’ room to “look through” the latest supply shock. 4. Kevin Warsh and the coming Fed regime changeWill Warsh prioritise reform, balance sheet reduction, or rate hikes first? Marvin and Danny offer sharply different interpretations. 5. Balance sheet policy versus rate policyCould quantitative tightening substitute for hikes, or are markets underestimating how much tightening may still be required? 6. Macro disagreement as edgeSide-by-side comparison of two different but broadly aligned macro frameworks gives a unique perspective on current risks. Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and why listeners wanted this debate 03:24 Danny Dayen joins, macro framework and market mispricings 07:20 US growth, overheating and Fed policy errors 15:15 Supply shocks and why “transitory” may be over 22:25 Inflation expectations as policy constraint 31:00 Kevin Warsh and Fed regime change 41:20 Balance sheet reduction versus rate hikes 49:45 Closing debate on overheat risks and policy endgame To explore the framework behind these views in more depth visit thematicmarkets.com This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thematicmarkets.substack.com/subscribe

A detailed and at times sharply contested discussion on the strategic direction of the Iran conflict following the collapse of US-Iran peace talks and what it means for markets (recorded at noon London time on 13 April). In this episode, Mark and I analyse the shift from an historically intense air campaign to a US-led maritime interdiction strategy. While we both agree that the US is attempting a novel “sovereignty-denial” strategy for regime change, we differ on how much control the US will have over the intensity of the conflict from here. We discuss how the US is shifting responsibilities to allies, how they are responding, and how the US midterm elections affect the Trump Administration’s calculus. We then turn to the economic and market implications. While we find much to agree on in terms of relative effects, we differ over the implications for the dollar. Key themes: * The shift from a large scale bombing campaign to a maritime conflict focused on securing the Persian Gulf and maintaining open trade routes * The US attempt to reframe the conflict and transfer responsibility to allies through a coordinated international presence at sea * The ceasefire as a tactical pause rather than a negotiated settlement, enabling a transition in strategy rather than resolving the conflict * Two competing interpretations of US intent, one focused on managing escalation and internationalising the response, the other on denying Iran the ability to govern and ultimately forcing regime collapse * The concept of a “denial of sovereignty” strategy, where pressure is applied without invasion or nation building * The risk that Iran, as a weakened but still capable actor, may escalate through asymmetric attacks on regional infrastructure * The vulnerability of Gulf energy infrastructure and the limits of missile defence despite high interception success rates * The role of international law and the UN in shaping allied participation, particularly for Europe and Asian economies dependent on energy flows * A likely convergence of global behaviour around freedom of navigation operations, even among reluctant participants * Constraints on European military capacity compared to stronger operational readiness in parts of Asia and the Gulf * The emergence of a lower intensity but more distributed phase of conflict, with multiple actors shaping outcomes * Implications for markets, including the potential for short term resilience or relief rallies alongside persistent tail risks * Diverging views on the durability of this equilibrium and what it implies for the US dollar and global capital flows Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and framing 01:00 Breakdown of peace talks and announcement of US blockade 03:30 Nature of the ceasefire and why it was unlikely to hold 06:00 Transition from air campaign to maritime strategy 10:00 US objectives and the degradation of Iran’s conventional capability 14:30 Debate on control versus escalation risk 18:00 Iran as a weakened but still dangerous actor 22:00 Allied participation, constraints and incentives 25:00 Role of international law and UN positioning 27:00 Global convergence around maritime security 30:00 Transition to market implications 32:00 Competing interpretations of US strategy 36:00 Regime stability versus denial of governance 40:00 Escalation scenarios and downside risks 45:00 Market pricing and potential relief rally 50:00 Dollar implications and closing views Further Reading To explore the framework behind these views in more depth, see the following publications, which set out the strategic logic and potential endgames of the conflict. 📖 Dazed And Confused: Making sense of the ceasefire and what it might mean, Thematic Markets, 10 April 2026 📖 Perspective: Uncertainty suits neither quantitative modeling nor hyperbole, Seriously Marvin?!, 8 April 2026 📖 Strange Action At A Distance: Circumstance and savvy Machiavellianism compound Trumpian confusion, Seriously Marvin?!, 25 March 2026 📖 Alea Iacta Est: Don’t ignore irreversibility in the Iran war, Thematic Markets, 23 March 2026 → Foundational framework for the current phase This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thematicmarkets.substack.com/subscribe

This week Mark Farrington and I are joined by Zoso Davies, formerly Managing Director in European Investment Grade Credit Research at Barclays, where he spent over 15 years analysing major credit cycles including the European sovereign crisis, Brexit, and COVID. Now at a leading London based hedge fund and author of Macro Credit Thinking, Zoso brings a rare combination of top down macro perspective and deep credit market expertise. The discussion reframes how to think about credit risk as markets from stable but nervous about private credit to the realization that Iran-related disruptions likely will be more severe. That transition threatens to turn credit risk from narrative-driven volatility to broad-based concerns over defaults. In investment grade markets, realized losses so far are minimal, yet spreads remain elevated as investors demand conpensation for uncertainty, liquidity, and mark to market risk.. The Iran conflict thus is acting as an accelerant to earlier concerns. What had been a relatively contained concern around private credit now sits within a broader macro shock, as energy and petrochemical disruptions begin to feed into growth, revenues, and confidence. The risk is a transition towards tighter financial conditions that, once underway, can become self fulfilling (Being is believing) through institutional channels such as pension funds. Key themes * Credit typically is narrative driven: Market pricing reflects volatility and uncertainty far more than expected defaults * Investment-grade fundamentals are good: Default rates are minimal, but spreads compensate for liquidity and mark to market volatility * Private credit is heterogeneous and often misunderstood: The asset class spans a wide range of quality and structures, masking the narrower segment where risks actually sit * Iran risks changing that: The Iran conflict amplifies existing vulnerabilities but also risks undermining fundamentals * Energy and supply shocks matter for credit: Disruptions feed through to growth, earnings, and ultimately credit quality * Europe appears most exposed: Greater sensitivity to energy shocks and structural fragilities increase vulnerability * Institutional structures can amplify tightening: Pension fund behaviour and regulation may reinforce credit contraction once it begins Timestamps 00:00 Introduction00:25 Who is Zoso Davies01:38 Iran, private credit, and broader credit risks02:39 From chemistry PhD to credit analyst04:31 Breaking into finance in the 2008 crisis06:45 AI job fears versus the 2008 reality10:00 Careers, adaptability, and rolling with change12:02 How Zoso thinks about credit13:00 What investment grade credit actually is14:15 Why credit spreads are about more than defaults16:10 Credit as story and narrative shift17:22 When investment grade credit really breaks19:01 Why private credit gets all the attention21:24 What private credit actually includes22:43 How the private credit story got out of control26:18 BDCs, leverage, and where the real stress sits28:23 The real issue is confidence, not defaults32:00 Is this systemic before defaults rise35:24 You go bankrupt when no one will lend to you36:01 Why software was the original pressure point38:35 How tightening becomes self fulfilling42:34 Tightening credit conditions and rising defaults44:14 Iran, oil shocks, and macro spillovers46:00 Why Europe looks most exposed47:35 The market may be reading Trump wrong50:33 When credit damage starts to become real51:26 From software risk to cyclical sectors52:48 Final thoughts54:22 Where to find Zoso’s work This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thematicmarkets.substack.com/subscribe

A sharp and wide-ranging discussion on the strategic consequences of the Iran war. In this episode, Doomberg joins Marvin Barth and Mark Farrington to unpack why markets have remained surprisingly calm despite escalating violence in the Middle East, what may be coming next, and what the long-term, strategic consequences of this conflict are likely to be. The conversation digs deep into the structure of the global energy system. Key themes: * Market resilience despite conflict, supported by inventories, spare capacity, and supply leakage * Escalation risk and the limits of rerouting flows around the Strait of Hormuz * Oil pricing dynamics, where spikes are constrained by demand destruction * Structural shift in global energy power, with US self sufficiency and China’s external dependence * Divergence between US resilience and Europe’s structural vulnerability * Transition from efficiency to security across global supply chains * China’s strategy of controlling midstream and processing bottlenecks * Likely overcorrection and reinvestment in domestic capacity across the West * A coming infrastructure cycle in pipelines, shipping, and refining * Historical pattern of supply response and potential technological breakthroughs * Geopolitical realignment across key regions, including Asia, Europe, and North America Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and framing 02:00 Market resilience despite conflict 03:30 Escalation risk and Iran strike 05:00 Can supply bypass Hormuz? 06:30 The coming infrastructure response 08:30 Why oil spikes cannot persist 12:00 Long term logistics and distribution shifts 14:00 China versus US in the Middle East 18:00 US resilience and domestic supply 22:00 Europe’s structural vulnerability 32:00 The third dependency shock 34:00 Energy transition versus reality 36:00 From efficiency to resilience 41:00 China’s supply chain strategy 46:00 Who must adapt and how 47:00 Korea, Japan and regional positioning 52:00 Taiwan risk and strategic exposure 53:30 Market implications and closing This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thematicmarkets.substack.com/subscribe

How could the Iran conflict reshape global markets, China risk premiums and emerging market capital flows? Marvin Barth and Erik @YWR discuss geopolitics, uncertainty and the investment implications of a changing global order. In this episode, they explore whether a US-aligned Middle East could reduce geopolitical risk, why emerging markets may benefit from shifting capital flows, and whether China’s equity story changes if Taiwan risk declines. The conversation also examines Europe’s strategic positioning, the future of the dollar, and the broader macro consequences of global power realignment. Key themes • Iran conflict and market uncertainty • China risk premium and valuation debate • Complexity cascades and tail risks • Emerging markets and global capital flows • Europe’s strategic, technological and debt challenges • Dollar strength, stablecoins and global liquidity Timestamps 00:00 Intro and why AI was postponed 02:30 Iran conflict and market uncertainty 03:00 Bullish macro view and the “new empire” thesis 04:35 China markets and Taiwan risk premium 07:45 Complexity cascades and tail risk 10:50 Volatility, options and market pricing 12:40 Is containing China bullish for China? 18:30 The Godfather analogy for US strategy 25:20 China’s economic model versus market pricing 28:30 Emerging markets bull case explained 32:00 US versus China, global alignment choices 37:20 EM flows, currencies and investor FOMO 39:00 The end of the old world order 40:30 Europe’s strategic mistakes 43:30 AI regulation and Europe’s competitiveness 47:50 “Europe as the new EM” debate 49:30 Debt, growth and macro positioning 51:00 Dollar outlook and stablecoins 54:00 Europe risks from dollarisation 55:25 Final thoughts and next episode teaser This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thematicmarkets.substack.com/subscribe

Forest Fire Insurance explores how risk truly builds in financial systems and why volatility is not the enemy it is often portrayed to be. Marvin Barth and Mark Farrington are joined by David Dredge, CIO of Convex Strategies, to unpack the idea of self organised criticality in markets using the forest fire analogy. The discussion ranges from leverage, correlation and contagion to the failures of Sharpe ratio thinking and the dangers of suppressing volatility. The conversation moves through convexity, tail risk, demographic decline, central bank policy and the growing fragility of the global financial system. Dredge explains why insurance is cheapest when it feels least necessary and why the real risk lies in accumulated undergrowth rather than the spark that eventually ignites it. This episode is a deep dive into how systemic risk forms, how it is mispriced and why prudent investors should think less about forecasting outcomes and more about preparing for nonlinear shocks. Timestamps 00:00 Introduction to Thematic Edge and today’s guest 01:00 David Dredge, Convex Strategies and tail risk investing 03:20 Forecasting versus risk management 05:30 The forest fire analogy and self organised criticality 07:00 What is Sharpe World and why it fails 09:30 Rational Accounting Man versus prudent risk management 12:00 Incentives, leverage and systemic fragility 14:45 Good volatility versus bad volatility 16:00 Convexity, skew and why upside volatility matters 18:50 Why investors are not taking enough risk 21:30 Forest management, undergrowth and controlled burns 24:30 Geopolitical and financial systems colliding 27:40 Volatility pricing and the cost of insurance 29:30 Japan, debt dynamics and demographic decline 33:30 Population ageing as a structural risk driver 37:30 Global competition for capital and bond market stress 40:00 Arsonists, campers and fire marshals in the global system 43:00 Markets driving economies, not the reverse 45:00 Bond market stress and policy intervention 47:00 Kevin Warsh, central banks and balance sheet risk 49:30 Basel III, regulation and unintended leverage 52:00 Why systemic risk keeps being misdiagnosed This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thematicmarkets.substack.com/subscribe

Unfortunately, the audio for this episode was terrible, so in addition to the time-stamped table of contents, a full, edited transcript is included below. In this episode, Marvin Barth and Mark Farrington reflect on a sequence of events that together signal a decisive shift in US strategy, from Venezuela to Greenland, and from emerging markets to monetary policy. They examine how recent US actions have reasserted strategic deterrence, clarified a new Western Hemisphere doctrine, and forced allies and adversaries alike to confront an uncomfortable reality. Whether welcomed or resented, American power still sets the terms. The discussion moves from geopolitics to markets, exploring what these shifts mean for asset allocation, the dollar, and global capital flows. Drawing on historical parallels with the 1990s, they unpack the case for a year of two halves, a steepening yield curve, bank outperformance, and a rotation away from debasement trades. They also assess the implications of a more orthodox Federal Reserve, balance sheet contraction, and deregulation, questioning widely held assumptions about gold, bonds, and portfolio construction. This is a wide ranging conversation about power, deterrence, and markets in transition, cutting through noise to focus on structure, incentives, and consequences. Table of contents 00:00 Why this year feels different02:00 Venezuela and the return of US deterrence06:00 Allies have fewer choices than they think08:00 Nigeria and the logic of alignment10:00 Capital leaving China, where it goes next11:30 Greenland, power, and nuclear deterrence15:00 NATO tension is not new19:00 Why Europe wants out of US assets21:00 The 1990s playbook markets forgot24:00 Dollar fear versus earnings reality27:00 What a harder Fed really means30:00 Yield curve, banks, and rotation36:00 Gold is a risk asset, not a hedge40:00 Why the 60–20–20 portfolio failed43:00 Bonds may matter again46:00 Hawk or organiser, redefining the Fed48:00 Power, markets, and the next phase Full, edited transcript MARVIN BARTH I’m Marvin Barth, and I’m here with my good friend and colleague, Mark Farrington, The Global Watchtower. We’re back to talk about some of the issues that we discussed in our last few episodes, where we got to interview some very interesting guests. We also changed our environment and are actually together at the Cross Keys Pub in Chelsea. Something I think we should do more often, do this in person. MARK FARRINGTON Absolutely. MARVIN BARTH What I wanted to start with is looking back at the Venezuela event and the David Kilcullen interview. Because that interview was unbelievable. Though it went way over time we could have talked to Dave for, I think, another hour or two if we had had the time. But for me, Venezuela set the tone for the year in the sense that last year, there was a lot of shock and awe from the Trump Administration, but there was never any clear definition. And I think other than tariffs, people didn’t get the sense of a real change in US strategy and position in the world. And then as we got towards the end of the year, we had the National Security Strategy, which we discussed back in December as widely misinterpreted. But it was abstract. Venezuela made the NSS tangible. First, it brought home very clearly the Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, or the “Donroe Doctrine,” as people have been calling it. Second, it demonstrated an exceptionally important point Dave made about need for the US to reassert strategic deterrence. After the Afghanistan fiasco after the disaster of Ukraine US strategic deterrence was basically nil and while I’m not saying it’s back and I don’t think Dave was either, I do think it makes it very clear that any adversary around the world has to think twice before they try to counter the US or at least how they go about countering the US. I also think, and we’ll get into this more later, it also sends a very strong message to allies as well. Especially so given the contrast with how European allies handled the whole Greenland situation, Venezuela, as Dave said, wasn’t a flawless operation, but it was a very impressive show of capabilities, especially relative to the European show of sending a few soldiers to Greenland to, literally lay a towel on the ice. It clearly established to every ally that they cannot do this without the US. So, I think that’s going to be very important given how adversarial Trump administration has been in its rhetoric and actions with allies. Do you read that differently? Or what are your key reflections from the Kilcullen interview? MARK FARRINGTON I definitely agree with all those points, and I think that point that Dave made about re-establishing US deterrence was a very important insight. I didn’t immediately put that together, but, you know, he did, and that was helpful. And I also think, explains a lot of behavior of the Trump Administration around Greenland. There’s also an element of reinforcing nuclear deterrence too. The slight difference I might have to how you described it is that I broke the National Security Strategy into three compartments. I was interested in what it implied for the new corollary, the Western Hemisphere corollary, but also what it means for projection of power in the Pacific, the first island chain strategy, and also what it means for Europe and NATO and the Middle East, etc. So Venezuela definitely defined the Western Hemisphere doctrine clearly. And I think everyone got the message. It’s received the usual criticism you would expect anytime you use force. But otherwise, I feel like it has been surprisingly well accepted by the world and South America. I think it’s helped to tip elections in Latin America, as we’ve seen Costa Rica, for example, to the right as well. And I think it will be a successful strategy. Also, I would say Rubio deserves a lot of credit for that as well, not just Trump in this case. And that Latin America views it as a Trump / Rubio strategy, which is helpful. So yeah, I would concur on all the points. MARVIN BARTH So, I don’t disagree with any of that. When I say that it was a defining event, I agree that it was a demonstration only in the Western Hemisphere and only of one slice of the broader National Security Strategy, i.e. the Western Hemisphere Trump corollary. But it had a broader implication as the first clear manifestation of the NSS and the complete shift we’re seeing in the US relationship with the rest of the world. That’s what it brought home to me, because one of the problems with the Trump administration is they say so many different things and he’s so good at misdirecting that you often are left questioning what is real. This made the strategy real. MARK FARRINGTON It definitely means it’s real for everyone in the Caribbean. Exactly. Cuba is immediately standing to attention. MARVIN BARTH But it wasn’t just there. And by the way, you remember Dave said, watch Cuba next. Another really interesting point from the interview with Senator Dafinone of Nigeria, that you couldn’t join, that we should definitely delve into more here, is this tension between people being shocked and offended by how the Trump Administration treats them but realizing they have no choice because you’re either out in the wild by yourself or you have the protection of the United States. Senator Dafinone put that in very clear terms: the US Christmas Day bombings in Nigeria were not an imposition on Nigeria, we were equal participants; we wanted this. Yes, President Trump may be selling it at home in his own way that he needs to do for his politics. But for we Nigerians, this was about an ongoing counter-terrorism operation, and we were really happy to have a big, powerful friend come join us. At the same time, however, he did express very clearly they were very concerned about the Venezuela operation. So it wasn’t just in Latin America, it was around the world. People said, whoa! MARK FARRINGTON No, it was a strong statement, and it has various implications. And I think that one of the implications can be, that you’re concerned, you’re either aligned with the US or you’re not aligned. But one of the other implications can be that if we have an overlap in our goals, it can be the most useful partnership that you can have. In this case, Nigeria definitely wanted and collaborated with that operation. It supported the government’s goals as well. So, I think the US will be used like that. Not as a policeman, but as the deliverer of the painful, punitive message. And perhaps that’s what the Trump posture will be like. Not a normal policeman, but standing ready to act, to create decisive change in the use of military force. MARVIN BARTH By the way, the Dafinone interview brought home another topic we’ve discussed that we need to devote a whole podcast to, which is emerging markets where we both have strong backgrounds. I was fascinated by the opportunity that Senator Dafinone described in Nigeria under the reforms that President Tinubu is undertaking, and in the broader context of these geostrategic realignments, in the competition for these regions’ resources, populations and hearts and minds. That latter point was well illustrated in the news after our interview was that President Tinubu went to visit Turkey and establish relationships with the Turks and increasing trade ties there. Separately, China and Nigeria reaffirmed their strategic partnership. All these pieces are in the mix, and that competition is potentially a huge opportunity in emerging markets. MARK FARRINGTON Totally agree. And if you look at the equity flows that we’ve seen so far in the emerging markets, there’s clearly a big outflow from China and then redeployment in emerging markets ex-China. So, for all of the West, which have some restrictions now on being fully invested or invested at all, in China, they’ve made that strategic allocation and so th