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Lukas and Saila talk about geopolitics, technology, culture, and modern life with Noah Smith. They discuss the U.S.–China rivalry, drone warfare, public opinion, political polarization, and how social media fueled woke-era cancellation campaigns. The conversation turns to AI's impact on research, entry-level work, corporate trust, and manufacturing, before exploring dating, intimacy, short-form video, status, creativity, and angel investing. Along the way, they trade stories about Japan, fountain pens, praying mantises, and the strange incentives of online life.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press___________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgOur tools are available at: https://plausiblydeniable.org/tools/Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscoreNoah: https://x.com/Noahpinion[TIMESTAMPS]00:00 Opening teaser and introducing Noah Smith00:30 From blogger to pundit and Substack success03:55 A fake U.S. embassy in Taiwan05:38 Did Japan peak in the 2000s?06:42 Fountain pens and expensive tastes09:40 The strange economics of luxury goods10:32 U.S.–China rivalry and broken alliances12:05 The “porcupine and decouple” strategy13:47 Drones and the defense of smaller nations15:06 Why superpowers avoid costly wars16:25 Whose public opinion matters?18:40 Israel–Palestine and American political divisions20:06 China's elite conflicts and military purges22:47 The 48-hour window for military operations23:25 China's White Paper protests and lockdowns25:30 How authoritarian leaders respond to dissent27:25 American alliances and political fragmentation28:30 Centralized versus distributed power30:50 Wartime powers and national unity33:12 How Chinese and Americans see each other34:55 Anti-Indian sentiment and regional grievances36:02 Cancel culture as a status competition38:39 How technology empowered cancel mobs41:05 The historical roots of woke ideology44:23 How social media collapsed cultural boundaries47:43 Defining woke and the limits of cancellation49:58 Noah joins a cancel mob52:24 When culture-war beliefs become policy54:36 Mississippi literacy reforms and luxury beliefs56:17 Why so few cancellation targets fought back58:10 Sincere beliefs and ideological contradictions01:00:05 Defining racism and rhetorical power01:02:30 AI-generated illustrations versus Excel charts01:03:30 Can AI accelerate its own development?01:04:14 AI coding and technical debt01:05:45 Will AI eliminate junior jobs?01:06:10 Lessons from 1980s Japanese employment01:08:00 Workplace trust and AI-powered generalists01:10:06 AI fraud, KYC and enduring companies01:12:23 Japanese small businesses and solopreneurs01:14:24 Labor hoarding and “messy jobs”01:16:10 Robots, factories and economies of scale01:18:00 AI moats and the return of physical capital01:19:14 Billionaires, status and shitposting01:20:54 Praying mantises and “nature is healing”01:24:05 Viagra, dopamine and libido01:26:06 Can technology solve sexual problems?01:28:05 Dating apps and extended adolescence01:30:10 Can tech sustain desire in long relationships?01:32:06 Artificial intimacy versus real love01:33:55 The short-form video “rapture”01:35:23 Why endless scrolling lowers quality01:36:50 Attention spans and entertainment fast food01:38:23 Books, artistic taste and status games01:40:07 Can we ever know someone's real motives?01:42:53 AI startups Noah has invested in01:45:05 Angel investing as a social activity01:46:35 Managing risk in angel investing01:48:12 Online avatars and bisexuality jokes01:51:30 Closing remarks

Lukas and Saila talk about everything from the philosophy of saying “I suppose,” cardio mishaps, Costco obsession, and the absurdity of livestreaming everyday life to crypto jealousy, resentment toward data centers, and the importance of admitting your insecurities. They explore AI-generated websites, movie criticism, social media hot takes, political opinions, crypto trading patterns, lawyers and professional gatekeeping, and the strange economics of modern white-collar work. They also discuss podcast sponsorships, New Hampshire, unconventional firearm designs, Chinese memecoin culture, Korean speculation, and the growing fear of being financially left behind.TimestampsSponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgOur tools are available at: https://plausiblydeniable.org/tools/ Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore 00:00 Crypto, China, and lawyers: Cold open00:40 Welcome and the philosophy of “I suppose”02:10 Parenting, creativity, and vague answers05:05 Cardio, concussions, and instant karma06:45 Walking desks and Costco livestreams09:40 Costco bargains and “father brain”11:10 Shrimp deals and imaginary sponsorships13:00 Crypto sellouts and AI-generated hype15:00 The jealousy behind anti-crypto sentiment16:15 Data centers and hidden motives19:00 Just admit you’re insecure22:00 Eye-drop ads and the podcast’s female audience23:50 AI websites and podcast branding27:10 The Joker, moviegoers, and film criticism32:10 Hot takes on videos nobody watched35:00 Contrarianism as a podcasting strategy36:05 What even counts as a “take”?37:10 Protest interviews and borrowed opinions38:20 Retroactive product placement and ads41:00 Crypto price patterns versus astrology44:00 Why lawyers are unavoidable45:05 Legal billing and Claude-generated invoices48:00 Piracy lawsuits as subscription sales49:00 Eye doctors and contact lens prescriptions50:00 Bankers versus financial advisers51:00 The hidden cost of sitting on cash52:20 Resenting products people actually need56:00 Can a flooring store sponsor a podcast?59:15 The podcast that helped sell a New Hampshire house01:04:00 Kel-Tec and unconventional folding firearms01:07:00 Bullpups and the one-gun fantasy01:08:00 What if podcasts were nothing but ads?01:09:00 Why China missed the memecoin craze01:10:00 American and Chinese investors hype each other01:11:00 South Korea’s speculative trading culture01:12:00 Leverage, risk, and financial FOMO01:13:00 The fear of falling behind financially01:14:10 Closing thoughts and outro

Lukas and Saila talk about political ideology, sacred beliefs, cultural shifts, and the changing nature of social norms with Oliver. They explore the rise and decline of wokeness, political tribalism, status competition, the influence of social media on democracy, and why people change their political allegiances. The conversation also covers academic freedom and tenure, modern dating and relationships, AI alignment and existential risk, the future of writing and journalism, AI-generated content, and why universities function more as credentialing institutions than places of learning.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgOur tools are available at: https://plausiblydeniable.org/tools/ Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore Oliver: https://x.com/olivertraldi00:00 Writing a book with AI and the urban-rural divide03:00 What causes sudden changes in social norms?06:00 Fraud, reputation and changing standards09:00 Generational grievances and historical injustice12:00 Sacred beliefs and how people defend them15:00 Where do sacred beliefs come from?18:00 Political betrayal and identity21:00 Why shrinking movements become more extreme24:00 Wokeness, fashion and cultural trend cycles27:00 Politics as a popularity contest30:00 Modernity and the disappearance of shared reality33:00 Are ordinary people actually ideological?36:00 Why political polling can be misleading39:00 The illusion of precision in social science42:00 Democracy, populism and political language45:00 Blaming capitalism for everything48:00 Why political movements feel powerful and powerless51:00 The uncomfortable consequences of winning54:00 Influencers, politicians and the power of content57:00 Democracy, monarchy and social media01:00:00 Why music producers matter more than artists01:03:00 Political entrepreneurs and ideological movements01:06:00 Why people abandon their political tribes01:09:00 Crime, enforcement and changing social norms01:12:00 Incentives, policing and institutional loyalty01:15:00 Why intellectual theories rarely produce practical advice01:18:00 Does academic tenure actually protect free speech?01:21:00 The trade-offs of working in academia01:24:00 Academic perks and professor-student relationships01:27:00 Tenure, risk-taking and personal freedom01:30:00 Regulating relationships and the legacy of MeToo01:33:00 Why modern dating resembles online shopping01:36:00 Smartphones, relationships and declining fertility01:39:00 AI, life extension and the future of humanity01:42:00 AI doomers and the limits of existential risk arguments01:45:00 Why nobody agrees on what AI alignment means01:48:00 AI safety careers and avoiding responsibility01:51:00 Risk tolerance and attitudes toward human extinction01:54:00 Personal brands and the future of journalism01:57:00 Why technology destroys the value of media02:00:00 When people will work for free02:03:00 AI as the ultimate personal librarian02:06:00 What skills do we lose when AI does our thinking?02:09:00 Researching an entire book with AI02:12:00 AI writing, obesity research and information overload02:15:00 The strange language patterns of AI writing02:18:00 Em dashes, semicolons and detecting AI text02:21:00 AI creativity and bizarre literary metaphors02:24:00 Why knowing something is AI-generated changes its value02:27:00 Substack, readership and writing for yourself02:30:00 The best and worst parts of being an academic02:33:00 Is college about education or getting a job?02:36:00 Why credentials matter more than learning02:39:00 Prestige, compensation and alternative credentials02:42:00 The University of Austin and the economics of education02:45:00 Final reflections and where to find Oliver02:48:00 Outro and audience questions

Lukas and Saila talk about absurdly long game release timelines, predicting movies before they exist, why “deny, deny, deny” and strategic dishonesty increasingly go unpunished, AI safety messaging and media incentives, technological pessimism and Ted Kaczynski’s critique of modernity, LASIK and cosmetic surgery, American healthcare and tort law, Social Security and voting incentives, and Roy Lee’s viral marketing strategy.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgOur tools are available at: https://plausiblydeniable.org/tools/ Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore 00:00 Why “deny, deny, deny” works00:43 Announcing games years before release03:02 Half-Life 3 and rating unreleased movies06:00 Predicting movies before they even exist07:32 Race-science jokes, engines and deer09:47 Belle Delphine bathwater and false advertising12:10 Turning lawsuits into marketing13:00 Spending habits and secret purchases14:33 Why lying can work forever16:36 The post-manners society17:52 Politics, academia and normalized dishonesty20:43 AI watermarks and hidden detection23:41 The AI safety media machine25:13 Manufactured narratives vs latent demand28:31 Techno-optimism and the “magic supercomputer”30:27 Technology as a monkey’s paw33:18 High IQ, cities and retreating from technology35:30 Writing letters to Ted Kaczynski37:52 Usury, sponsors and hiring your critics40:26 AI doom messaging and crying wolf43:34 Safety theater and AI regulation45:38 Cardio, modern life and accidental exercise48:42 LASIK fears and surgical complications51:07 Superstition vs materialism53:11 Personality tests and positive affirmations55:55 Rome, travel and livestreaming everything57:53 Fear of AI and safety-industry incentives01:00:11 Mechanistic interpretability, LARPing and lying01:03:25 Podcast redesign and resistance to change01:05:39 Surgery becomes precision engineering01:08:44 Fillers vs implants and facial movement01:11:45 The eyelid injury and surgical costs01:15:39 American healthcare and tort law01:18:29 Healthcare limits and boomer Social Security01:21:08 Taxation, voting and political incentives01:22:20 Roy Lee and viral startup marketing01:24:57 Outro

Matthew Peterson, founder of FORUM and The American Mind, joins Lukas and Saila to discuss the fights inside the Trump coalition, why Silicon Valley hasn't won over the populists, and what right-wing media would look like if it cared about building things. They get into FORUM's Joe Lonsdale–Joe Allen debate, the resentment behind the data-center backlash, AI as empowerment or centralized control, privacy, regulation, and whether the government ends up with its own frontier lab. The conversation also covers Peterson's route through academia, Claremont, New Founding, and Blaze; corporate sponsors and schizophrenic mortgages; winning elections versus posting based edits; AI overemployment reality TV; edgelord MrBeast; political dating shows; audience capture; the management theory of chads and autists; Trump and Elon; Alex Jones as a symbol of vitality; what think tanks actually do; AI reviving a real liberal arts education; capitalism with American characteristics; and why young people want something worth building Sponsored by: Polymarket: https://polymarket.com Zcash: https://z.cash CitizenX: https://citizenx.com Passage Press: https://passage.press Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.org Bonus episodes + every new release by email: https://plausiblydeniable.substack.com Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQ Saila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore Matthew Peterson: https://x.com/docMJP Timestamps: 00:00 — Saila would like less privacy 00:32 — Welcome and sponsors 01:55 — FORUM and the arguments the right needs to have 05:03 — Silicon Valley donations and the protection racket 09:13 — Inside FORUM: Yarvin, Lonsdale, and Joe Allen 13:55 — Where does the right stand on AI? 17:06 — The data-center backlash isn't really about water 20:33 — Unemployment, coronavirus 7, and AI's sales pitch 23:58 — Centralized AI and the cost of private compute 26:30 — Does anyone actually care about privacy? 30:08 — AI training data and the copyright argument 33:17 — The cloud got expensive; hardware got interesting 34:49 — Would AI regulation just create more middlemen? 38:55 — The government's inevitable frontier lab? 42:20 — Government competence, the CIA, and DOGE 47:55 — From academia to Claremont, New Founding, and Blaze 53:25 — Frontier and the business of right-wing media 58:02 — Advertising agencies, Bud Light, and the corporate bubble 1:01:11 — ICE videos and the politics of bad optics 1:04:29 — Do you want to win or post based edits? 1:05:45 — AI overemployment: the reality show 1:08:54 — Edgelord MrBeast takes over the galaxy 1:09:55 — Political dating shows and ideological trigger words 1:12:28 — Stop dissenting and start building 1:15:33 — Why media is illegible to capital 1:20:37 — AI local reporting and the missing content aggregator 1:25:17 — Audience capture and the cost of going viral 1:28:15 — Hollywood has lost the mandate of heaven 1:31:39 — Celebrity worship and ironic photos 1:37:59 — Why the sycophantic commenter is your favorite 1:40:49 — The management theory of chads and autists 1:45:37 — Finding talent instead of protecting your job 1:48:50 — Alex Jones as a symbol of life and vitality 1:55:11 — What do think tanks actually do? 2:01:00 — Don't meet your heroes; they might want to sleep with you 2:04:24 — Tenure and the collapse of professional prestige 2:07:35 — AI teachers and the return of a real education 2:11:17 — The Iliad, monster porn, and the death of the middle 2:13:08 — Learn to code meets the automation of b******t jobs 2:14:53 — AI doing your taxes justifies the data centers 2:16:38 — What if bureaucracy is the point? 2:18:13 — Capitalism with American characteristics 2:20:07 — Tariffs, the Homestead Act, and economics beyond GDP 2:24:36 — The anti-Bush hippie who wanted lower taxes 2:28:24 — Hamilton Society debates and the big red button 2:30:00 — Politicians need live audience feedback 2:33:38 — Zoomers, public service, and the broken system 2:39:08 — The imaginary internet villain versus actual people

Lukas and Saila talk about product reviews and Costco bulk buying, AI safety and political burnout, Middle East news and the Lindsay Clancy trial, how people evaluate medicine and scientific evidence, podcast analytics and consumer behavior, crypto and the Clarity Act, jury trials, cooking, sun exposure, fishing, and the very different cultures of YouTube and X.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgOur tools are available at: https://plausiblydeniable.org/tools/ Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore 00:00 Why going outside is dangerous01:12 Product reviews, sponsors and bad products03:03 Reviewing the Tri Blue scalp cleanser05:53 Scalp tension and “one big problem”07:45 Costco, bulk buying and natural soap11:18 Water filtration and optimizing showers12:17 How upgrades ruin ordinary experiences14:09 Why online debates have become exhausting16:35 AOC, Rubio and “serious” politicians18:44 Political burnout and the Iran war20:01 Houthis, Saudi forces and Middle East absurdity21:51 The Lindsay Clancy juror controversy24:20 Starbucks, normies and “touch grass”25:41 What normal people think about AI safety27:20 Anthropic, IPO incentives and AI spending28:31 Regulatory capture and AI safety scares30:19 Why actionable topics beat grand debates31:33 Calls to action, subscriptions and selling knowledge32:00 Tai Lopez, books and knowledge LARPing33:08 Timeless episodes vs current-event content34:13 Crypto gains, watches and better uses of money36:31 Status anxiety and expensive watches37:35 Surgery reviews and fear of rare outcomes40:00 User error, contraception and bad statistics41:51 Mechanisms vs correlation in modern science43:30 Trusting doctors and personalized judgment45:13 Shorter episodes, retention and production value46:59 Consumers don’t know what they want47:57 Kickstarter and the reversal of customer risk49:57 Anonymity, the penguin and online identity50:49 Crypto markets and the Clarity Act52:18 Jury trials and demographic incentives53:30 Searching for better “normie” topics54:55 Chicken cooking and simple food57:32 Costco carrots and the anti-outdoors bit59:37 Sun exposure and avoiding peak UV01:00:30 Fishing as prehistoric gambling01:02:00 Fishing regulars and local expertise01:04:02 Fun, short-form video and calls to action01:05:21 YouTube comments vs X01:06:55 “Heaven banning” and platform culture01:08:02 Big Chicken, sponsors and post-credit bits

Welcome back to the Plausibly Deniable Experience. Lukas and Saila enter Soycast mode to reconstruct cooking from first principles, prove that bachelor slop is game-theory optimal, and explain why sharing food with roommates produces resentment instead of consumer surplus. We investigate the hidden fat tax, nuclear-powered dishwasher cabinets, and whether the government should pay your grandmother to cook for you.Then: why Twitter got boring, quote-tweet parasitism, synthetic OpenAI equity, and corporate jobs that have quietly become pensions. Doug Leone’s homelessness story becomes a debate about whether a long layover counts as adversity, Lukas gets trapped in an American Airlines Groundhog Day, and Saila discovers that “you can just do things” doesn’t necessarily extend to getting a menu. Also: getting a job as a self-improvement protocol, open-source software with a personal grudge, and the Balaji debate that never happened.If you didn’t need the money, what job would you do? Tell us in the comments.Sponsored by:Zcash: https://z.cashPolymarket: https://polymarket.comCitizenX: https://citizenx.comPassage Press: https://passage.pressBonus episodes + extended cuts: https://plausiblydeniable.substack.comPlausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgSubmit a question: https://plausiblydeniable.org/ask/Follow the show: https://x.com/PD_EXPLukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore00:00 Get a Job Theory 00:37 Sponsors and Welcome to the Soycast04:45 The Hidden Fat Tax07:59 Cooking From First Principles14:13 One Bowl, Zero Chores: Bachelor Economics23:44 Why Sharing Food Ruins Roommates27:28 Put the Grandmothers to Work32:30 Downvotes, Groupthink and the Death of Comments36:00 Engagement Farming and Synthetic OpenAI Equity40:47 The Fed vs. the Trading Algorithms42:39 Why Twitter Got Boring51:09 Riding With Biden and the Gerontocracy57:00 Kale, Dieting and Supermarket Discipline1:00:00 Boredom and Get a Job Theory1:01:56 The People Who Never Leave the House1:03:58 Incels, Age Gaps and America A vs. America B1:08:17 Doug Leone and the Homelessness Origin Story1:14:20 Trapped at DFW: Complaining on Twitter Works1:18:12 Sponsor Wishlist and Open Source With a Grudge1:20:30 The Balaji Debate That Never Happened1:22:49 The Best Job When You Don’t Need Money1:26:53 Video Calls, Insurance Sales and Plumber Sponsorships1:31:05 Dream Guests and Podcasting as an Endurance Sport1:33:34 Open Mics and Birthday Scams1:35:57 “You Can Just Do Things” vs. the Restaurant Hostess

Brian Chau has figured out how to use AI for journalism without producing AI slop: make the models read mountains of documents, then make humans write the story.Brian is the founder of Effort News, a publication using long-context AI to comb through federal databases, financial records, legal filings, and other giant piles of public data for stories everyone else missed. He joins Lukas and Saila to explain the refugee-resettlement grant investigation that convinced him to launch Effort, why ordinary journalism is often built around stories sources want “placed,” and what changes when you can query an entire government dataset instead.They also get into why frontier models are becoming better at math and worse at prose; Claude’s sycophancy; the different sources models inherently trust; taxpayer-funded NGOs; the funding behind anti-data-center and anti-AI activism; SBF’s Anthropic investment; Nick Shirley’s fraud counters; the EU’s attack on the open internet; zoning, NIMBYs, giant trucks, and “full-force centrism”; writing separate websites for humans and AIs; why Brian’s p(doom) is negative; and whether Effort can become a new source of truth for the AI age.Guest:Effort News: https://effort.newsBrian Chau on X: https://x.com/brianchau57Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgBonus episodes + every new release by email: https://plausiblydeniable.substack.comLukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore Brian Chau: https://x.com/brianchau5700:00 — “Unaligned NGOs” and the anti-AI money trail01:06 — Welcome and Brian Chau02:01 — From machine learning to Effort News02:47 — Why AI writing keeps getting worse08:21 — Sycophancy and models that instantly agree with you09:37 — Which sources different models trust13:54 — How Effort News finds stories15:34 — The refugee-resettlement grant investigation25:00 — Data-first journalism versus planted stories27:08 — A million AI agents versus government databases28:58 — Data centers, unions, and political extortion31:29 — Why Brian is optimistic about the next 20 years33:19 — Europe, censorship, and the open internet37:30 — A white pill wrapped in black pills42:22 — Taxpayer-funded media and manufactured consensus44:10 — What does it mean for discourse to be “fake”?44:57 — Who funds anti-data-center activism?50:13 — Nick Shirley, fraud counters, and due diligence57:49 — Full-force centrism58:28 — Zoning, NIMBYs, and the affordability crisis1:04:04 — “Things can just be better”1:06:43 — How regulation made trucks enormous1:09:03 — Rebuilding a shared political reality1:13:02 — Tucker, Candace, and the right-wing influencer problem1:15:13 — How Effort News is funded1:16:00 — Who gets to shape AI’s values?1:17:09 — Writing one website for humans and another for AIs1:20:16 — How much of culture is manufactured?1:22:50 — The anti-AI funding network1:24:47 — SBF’s attempted crypto regulatory monopoly1:27:06 — Why Brian’s p(doom) is negative1:29:01 — The UK, France, and nuclear instability1:31:01 — The accidental founding of Effort News1:32:25 — Subscribers, B2B data, and a future newswire1:35:24 — Building a new source of truth1:39:29 — The Plausibly Deniable exclusive1:42:48 — Publicists, the Vice mafia, and founder-led media1:47:13 — Effort’s team and the disgusting CTA1:48:13 — Pre-made Twitter threads and “we read AI text”1:49:36 — Why real scoops sit next to total slop1:54:24 — Substack, data visualization, and $80,000 subscriptions2:02:23 — Final plugs and farewell

Jakob Diepenbrock is running a hard-tech fund from El Segundo, backing young engineers building defense, manufacturing, robotics, energy, and other critical industries. He joins Lukas and Saila to explain how he skipped the credential ladder, built Discipulus Ventures, raised a fund by treating the process like a startup launch, and why Anduril’s breakout made defense tech the allocation everyone suddenly wanted. They also discuss cost-plus military contracts, drones versus soldiers, DJI’s domination of creator hardware, automated American textile factories, why humanoid robots are TikTok bait, insectoid factory machines, American-made peptides, ethanol and farm lobbies, machine financing at 30%, the tacit knowledge trapped in aging machinists, lowballing retiring boomers for obscure industrial monopolies, founder bench-press requirements, a Vegas magician who broke reality, CIA remote viewing, UFOs as Space Force marketing, medical isotope enrichment, Russian shell companies, and Germany’s reverse house-flipping bureaucracy. Sponsored by: Polymarket: https://polymarket.com Zcash: https://z.cash CitizenX: https://citizenx.com Passage Press: https://passage.press _________________________________ Watch, listen, and join the discussion: Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.org YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@PlausiblyDeniableExperience Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3cU3OBRKnYGY7fyGF6x2Th Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/plausibly-deniable/id1866452505 Substack: https://plausiblydeniable.substack.com X: https://x.com/PD_EXP Jakob Diepenbrock: https://x.com/jakobdiepen Discipulus Ventures: https://www.discipulusventures.com Discipulus Cohort: https://www.discipulusventures.com/cohort Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQ Saila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore Contact: [email protected] Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and Sponsors 01:25 The Substack Payment Processor Is Finally Fixed 05:00 Turning the Podcast Into a Call to Action 07:08 Meet Jakob / Long-Distance Running Is Adult Self-Harm 09:19 El Segundo, Chamath, and the Defense-Tech Wave 11:17 Why Hard Tech Belongs in El Segundo 14:40 Starting a Fund Without Credentials 17:29 Venture Capital Is Crappy Beta 19:23 Raising a Fund Like a Startup 22:46 The 22-Year-Old Fund Manager Problem 24:36 Why Defense Tech Suddenly Became Cool 27:27 Elon, DOGE, and the $20 Million Missile 29:05 How Cost-Plus Contracting Broke Defense 30:00 The Defense Industry Is Smaller Than You Think 32:19 Political Risk for Government Contractors 35:17 Robotics Is the Next Bubble 36:29 Reindustrialization and the American-Made Premium 40:00 DJI, Drones, and the Captured Creator Economy 42:03 “Reindustrialized” Sweaters Made in China 43:47 Automated American Textiles 47:59 Humanoid Robots Are Boomer Bait 50:51 Insect Robots, Chemicals, and Ethanol 54:58 RFK’s Fitness Camps and American-Made Peptides 57:11 Bioreactors and Cheaper Drug Manufacturing 58:23 Lowballing Boomers for Strategic Companies 1:03:51 America Runs on Three Old Guys and a Notebook 1:08:37 Grants, Tariffs, and Supply-Chain Sovereignty 1:12:38 Wire Harnesses and 30% Machine Financing 1:17:08 El Segundo Culture and the Founder Bench Test 1:21:48 The Vegas Magician Who Broke Reality 1:24:49 CIA Remote Viewing, UFOs, and Space Force 1:28:33 Medical Isotopes and Russian Shell Companies 1:31:05 Germany’s Reverse House-Flipping Program 1:33:20 Mandatory Call to Action

Covfefe Anon returns to Plausibly Deniable to discuss the bliss of confirmation bias: how to engineer a viral take, why the edit may be the native medium of the 21st century, and why Angry Birds might be the most fascist movie ever made. Lukas, Saila and Covfefe review films they have not seen, explain why ironic criticism only makes its targets cooler, and consider whether Confirmation Bias is actually a better name for the podcast. The conversation also covers Ryan Gosling, Barbenheimer, James Bond, public-domain superheroes and AI remakes, Joe Biden and the death of the presidency, girl-avatar growth hacks, GPUs and matrix multiplication, phonics and grade inflation, business-school arbitrage, solo-podcast psychosis, radicalized wives, Twitter jannies, boomer game, hair-loss hopium, live-editing reality, friendship simulators, freedom of association, and the “blood diamonds attack” on crypto. Sponsored by: Polymarket: https://polymarket.com Zcash: https://z.cash CitizenX: https://citizenx.com Passage Press: https://passage.press Watch, listen, and join the discussion: Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.org YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@PlausiblyDeniableExperience Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3cU3OBRKnYGY7fyGF6x2Th Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/plausibly-deniable/id1866452505 Substack: https://plausiblydeniable.substack.com X: https://x.com/PD_EXP Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQ Saila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore Covfefe Anon: https://x.com/CovfefeAnon Contact: [email protected] Timestamps: 00:00 How to Engineer a Viral Take 01:02 Intro and Sponsors 01:48 Reviewing The Odyssey Without Watching It 05:15 Spoilers, Millennial Slop, and the Last Shared Culture 10:40 Meta-Level Lying, LARPing, and Intrigue-Maxing 17:24 Ryan Gosling’s Drive and the Single-Mom Concession 20:28 Barbenheimer and the Fascism of Angry Birds 24:03 Ryan Gosling vs. Angry Birds and the Communist Sequel 30:00 James Bond Rides Bitch 32:55 Public-Domain Superheroes and AI Remakes 34:11 Activated Charcoal and the Final Original Podcast Episode 37:12 Patrick Bateman, Starship Troopers, and Failed Irony 39:44 GEOBODEN and Joe Biden’s Final Act 42:58 The Presidency Is a Puppet Show 46:49 The Edit Is the Native Medium of the 21st Century 50:02 One Reader and Ninety-Nine Edit Watchers 52:09 How to Manufacture a Viral Take 54:46 The Girl-Avatar Growth Hack 58:39 GPUs Accidentally Built Superintelligence 1:02:14 Schooling, Phonics, and the End of Reading 1:07:11 Harvard Sells Credentials, Not Education 1:12:03 Business School, Bar Prep, and Clicker Arbitrage 1:15:36 Solo Podcasting Causes Mental Illness 1:17:34 Candace Owens and the Radicalized Wife 1:22:20 Men Lead, Women Follow, and Soy Turns You Into a Deer 1:24:09 Should We Rebrand as Confirmation Bias? 1:26:30 Emotional Programming and Mental Illness as a Defense 1:29:18 The Brain-Damage Loophole 1:33:27 Mom Gets Banned and Twitter Jannies Get Rich 1:38:22 Boomer Opportunity Stories and “May I Meet You?” 1:42:46 Hot-Girl Signaling, Hair-Loss Hopium, and Recycled Tweets 1:46:15 Broken Twitter Search, Outsourced Editing, and Dog Clickers 1:49:48 Live-Editing Reality and the Ex Who Shrunk Seven Inches 1:52:33 The Bliss of Confirmation Bias 1:55:08 Friendship Simulators and the Blood-Diamonds Attack 1:58:54 Freedom of Association and Memetic Stink 2:02:20 Outro: Should We Rebrand?

America has become a coin-flipping economy—and the language we use now punishes anyone foolish enough to take things seriously. Lukas and Saila discuss AI psychosis and a 76,000-contact CRM, the fragmented B2B SaaS economy, travel-authorization scams, tax software, W-2 employment, lawsuits, bankruptcy, fake sponsorships, macro investors with monkey pictures, crypto traders posting inspirational corn after blowing up, and Costco gold arbitrage. Then they turn to the linguistic destruction of America: how “try-hard,” “glazing,” the IDGAF war, and “Woke One” made effort, admiration, accountability, and sincerity embarrassing. Also discussed: DeepSeek’s immigrant work ethic, aggressive safety razors, safe-horny culture, podcasters as male sex workers, the office LARP keeping the American economy alive, and why titles and thumbnails matter more than the podcast itself. Sponsored by: Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comPassage Press: https://passage.press Watch, listen, and join the discussion: Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@PlausiblyDeniableExperienceSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3cU3OBRKnYGY7fyGF6x2ThApple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/plausibly-deniable/id1866452505Substack: https://plausiblydeniable.substack.comX: https://x.com/PD_EXP Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore Contact: [email protected] Timestamps: 00:00 “Try-Hard” Caused Societal Damage01:06 Intro and Sponsors01:17 Ransoming Product Recommendations02:14 The Beach-House Food Disaster04:32 AI Psychosis and the 76,000-Contact CRM07:29 The B2B SaaS Lego Scam09:11 Travel Authorization Scams and Private FCC Stings16:31 Tax Software, Professional Cartels, and the W-221:02 There Are No Winners in Court25:54 JD Vance, Europe, and Girlboss Diplomacy29:35 Fake Sponsorships and the Prometheus Statue33:13 Corporate Norwood Haircuts and Hormone Twitter37:31 The Crypto Trader Starts Posting Corn40:10 Gold, T-Bills, and Macro Monkey Pictures46:17 The Coin-Flipping Economy50:00 The Collective Psychic Force Field and the Big Kahuna52:22 Outflanking Every Doomer by Going Further Back53:51 Costco Gold Arbitrage56:29 Shamelessness Is the Last Remaining Edge57:49 Podcasters Are Male Sex Workers1:00:54 Crypto Nostalgia and DeepSeek’s Work Ethic1:03:00 The Aggressive Razor Ambush1:06:19 Smoothness, Bottoming, and Safe Horny1:09:44 “Woke One” and the Great Fugue State1:15:16 The IDGAF War1:16:20 How “Try-Hard” Damaged Civilization1:18:40 The Office Worker Who Pretends to Be Busy1:21:54 Your Breeding Fetish Came Free1:22:43 “Glazing” and Linguistic Destruction1:25:18 Titles, Thumbnails, and the Podcast Meta1:29:47 The New Dating Gift Economy1:31:48 Covfefe Anon Becomes a Permanent Houseguest1:32:43 Childhood Obliviousness

Lukas and Saila talk about an accidental arsenic-poisoning bonfire, frustrating hospital visits, bizarre injuries, the Hunter Biden–Nick Fuentes interview, Gavin Newsom, European manufacturing, aging, astrology and viral internet tools, gender and dating dynamics, rural life, bulk food, FBI encounters, online anonymity, food quality, RFK Jr., AI culture, Silicon Valley politics, cats, dogs, strange neighbors, self-deception and AI-assisted coding.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________

Mert Mumtaz, co-founder and CEO of Helius, joins Lukas and Saila to explain why privacy is crypto’s unfinished business, why he sees Zcash as encrypted—or “better”—Bitcoin, and what the Ironwood upgrade means for the Orchard pool, supply integrity, formal verification and quantum recoverability. They compare Zcash and Monero, unpack fungibility and tainted coins, discuss private finance on Solana and Helius’s work with Light Protocol, and examine why public blockchains risk becoming a global financial panopticon. The conversation then moves into AI, DeFi security, startup hiring, company names, Slavic relationship theory, emergency flowers and the collapse of straightforward Western dating. Sponsored by: Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comPassage Press: https://passage.press Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgLukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscoreMert: https://x.com/mert

Jeremy Kauffman joins the Positively Deniable Experience to explain how spending a few hours per week on libertarian politics helped throw the national Libertarian Party into chaos—and why he believes the Free State movement is succeeding in New Hampshire while the national party remains committed to losing. Jeremy recounts the rise of LBRY and Odysee, the SEC case that destroyed the company, crypto’s early generation of true believers, and the attempt to build a censorship-resistant alternative to YouTube. He also explains how the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire grew its X account from roughly 4,000 to 110,000 followers and why political influence increasingly flows from culture, social media, and status rather than policy papers. The conversation also covers the Free State Project, concentrating committed political minorities in one state, anonymity and trust online, New Hampshire’s economy and quality of life, prediction markets, AI-model bets, right-to-try laws, Lumina, biohacking, GLP-1s, housing, fertility, dating, Palantir, and the difference between efficient and ineffective government.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgLukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore Jeremy: https://x.com/jeremykauffman

Spandrell joins us to explain the “IQ Shredder”: how successful cities attract ambitious, intelligent people from across the world, place them into a hypercompetitive rat race, and then make it nearly impossible for them to reproduce. We discuss why fertility is collapsing across virtually every developed society, whether Israel has escaped the trend, why financial incentives have repeatedly failed, and what governments could realistically do to make family formation prestigious again. Spandrell also explains Bio-Leninism—his theory of how political systems recruit people with few alternatives and convert personal disadvantage into institutional loyalty. We connect it to the strange people selected by modern politics, why competent people tend to leave government, and why the political right struggles to build a durable machine. Later, we get into Spandrell’s life in Japan and China, how China changed under Xi Jinping, the decline of Twitter, the possible return of long-form blogging, Substack’s monetization advantage, Urbit’s future, AI-assisted development, and why Chinese companies can conquer entire industries without making their shareholders rich. https://spandrell.com Sponsored by: Polymarket: https://polymarket.com Zcash: https://z.cash CitizenX: https://citizenx.com Network Press: https://network.press _______________________________ Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.org Extra content: https://substack.com/@plausiblydeniable Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQ Saila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore Spandrell: https://x.com/spandrell4