Advertise on podcast: Markets Unscripted

Prediction markets saw the election outcome coming. So why did stocks still get blindsided?In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down how crowded positioning may have set up the post-election selloff. Jason explains why he stayed short the Nasdaq through Wednesday’s rebound, and Matt shows what his FOMO indicator and market breadth were telling him as stocks bounced.Then they tackle the question every dip buyer is asking. Is this another V-bottom, or a bounce that pulls traders in before the next leg down? They discuss what would invalidate the rebound, why volatility can make even a well-timed entry expensive, and how AI stocks can look cheap while expectations for the hardware buildout are still too high. Along the way, they revisit Coca-Cola and Amazon to show how differently a great business and its stock can perform.Timestamps00:00 Election volatility & positioning03:44 Why stocks fell after the election rally05:10 Everyone expects a V-bottom07:36 Real bottom or fake one?09:16 Why we’re on the sidelines: volatility is the cost16:46 How concentrated the AI trade really is20:13 The AI value trap28:57 Great companies, dead stocks: UNH, Coke & Amazon36:02 The 3X ETF trap39:54 Asia steps in: 2008 lessons41:43 Metals & currencies: positioning check45:54 “The Big Long” & the GOATFollow the hostsMatt Caruso — Caruso Insights| www.carusoinsights.comJason Shapiro — Crowded Market Report| www.crowdedmarketreport.comMarkets Unscripted. Two traders. Zero filters. One truth.

You enter as a momentum trader. The stock falls. Suddenly, you’re a long-term investor talking about valuation.That’s strategy drift—and it can quietly unravel your trading process.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro discuss why traders abandon their rules, chase whichever strategy is working, and turn manageable losses into something much bigger. Matt shares a mistake he’s made himself, while Jason explains why knowing your edge also means knowing when that edge is gone.They also break down the pressure on AI stocks, strength emerging in healthcare, and why expecting another V-shaped recovery could be a dangerous assumption.In this episode:• The difference between trading momentum and being attached to AI stocks• Why chasing the hottest strategy keeps putting you in the wrong place• What crowded positioning can—and can’t—tell you• Lessons from the sideways markets of the 1960s and 1970s• Buy and hold, dollar-cost averaging, and building different return streams• The corn reversal Jason flagged but personally missed—and how his process would have managed the exit• Why a great business story doesn’t automatically mean a great stock returnTwo different approaches. The same emphasis on process, self-awareness, and respecting the market.Subscribe for weekly conversations with Matt and Jason, and tell us in the comments: Have you ever changed your reason for holding a trade after it went against you?Connect with Matt Caruso:https://www.carusoinsights.comConnect with Jason Shapiro:https://www.crowdedmarketreport.comFor educational and informational purposes only. Nothing discussed constitutes investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. Trading involves risk.#MarketsUnscripted #TradingPsychology #StockMarket

AI can keep changing the world. But what happens to the stocks if the financing dries up?In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro examine the growing pressure on credit markets—and whether the race to fund AI’s massive buildout could become a bigger problem for stocks.Matt explains why the competition for capital reminds him of Jesse Livermore’s warnings during the railroad boom. Jason brings the other side: how much bad news is already priced in, and could South Korea’s reversal be an early sign of stabilization?In this episode:• AI financing pressures and the race to secure capital• What high-yield bonds may be signaling about market risk• Why good earnings aren’t always enough to lift stocks• The railroad boom’s lessons for today’s AI investment cycle• Emerging relative strength in software and healthcare• European debt concerns and the risk of contagion• Brazil’s election shock and the importance of managing unexpected riskWhat would confirm that conditions are getting worse—and what would make Matt and Jason change their minds?Subscribe for more Markets Unscripted conversations on market conditions, trader positioning, and risk management.Explore Matt’s research and education:https://www.carusoinsights.comExplore Jason’s Crowded Market Report:https://www.crowdedmarketreport.comFor educational purposes only. Not investment advice.#StockMarket #Liquidity #MarketsUnscripted

What do you do when your experience tells you the market could be topping—but prices keep moving higher?Veteran futures trader Matt “Pax” Kenah joins Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro for a candid episode of Markets Unscripted about the gap between what you believe and what you actually trade.Pax explains why this market reminds him of the dot-com era—and why he’ll still buy if his process gives him the signal. Jason challenges the idea that the market is broadly resilient, while Matt discusses why stalled breakouts in leading stocks have made him more defensive.Then the conversation gets personal: making money, giving it back, the danger of ego, and why being consumed by trading can hurt both your account and your life.In this episode:• Is strength in a handful of stocks masking weakness elsewhere?• Why Pax trades his process rather than his market opinion.• When to increase size, pull back, or sit in cash.• Why Pax adds to winning trades and cuts losing ones quickly.• How early trading success can create the habits behind later losses.• The difficult transition from the trading pits to screens.• Pax’s approach to bonds, price levels, and managing risk.Three different approaches. A shared emphasis on process, discipline, and knowing when to step aside.Explore the hosts and guest:Matt Caruso — https://www.carusoinsights.comJason Shapiro — https://www.crowdedmarketreport.comMatt “Pax” Kenah — https://thepaxgroup.orgPax on X — https://x.com/paxtrader777Subscribe for more Markets Unscripted conversations.

Investors keep calling AI a bubble and trying to pick the bottom in bonds. But what if they’re getting both trades wrong?In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why stocks keep climbing despite rising bond yields—and why Jason still isn’t convinced the bond market has found its ultimate low.Matt also explores an emerging part of the AI trade: healthcare companies applying the technology to cancer testing, heart scans, and genetic analysis. While the debate stays focused on Nvidia, could the next wave of opportunities already be developing elsewhere?Inside this episode:• Why “oversold” doesn’t mean bonds are ready to bounce• The Russell 2000’s changing reaction to higher yields• Why Matt and Jason challenge the AI bubble narrative• AI’s expansion beyond chips and into healthcare• The danger of being right about a bubble—and too early to survive the trade• Why confirmation bias can put you on the wrong side of a major trendAre you following what the market is doing—or waiting for it to agree with you?Subscribe for more Markets Unscripted with Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro.Connect with the hosts:Matt Caruso — Caruso Insights: https://www.carusoinsights.comJason Shapiro — Crowded Market Report: https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com#StockMarket #AIStocks #BondMarket #MarketsUnscripted

Matt is long leading AI stocks. Jason is short the Dow. Both trades are working. How can that happen in the same market?In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro examine the divide between a small group of strong stocks and weakness across much of the broader market. They discuss rising bond yields, stubborn oil prices, and why Jason is growing wary of the widespread claim that stocks are “resilient.”Matt looks back at the late 1990s, when weak market breadth appeared well before the technology rally ended. He also shares what he is watching in AI-related stocks. Jason explains why he remains short the Dow and what he would need to see before considering a long trade in the Russell 2000.They may hold opposite positions, but both return to the same lesson: follow your process, manage risk, and let the market confirm your view.Learn more about Matt: https://www.carusoinsights.com/Learn more about Jason: https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com/Subscribe to Markets Unscripted for more conversations with Matt and Jason. What are you seeing right now: strength that can spread, or a rally getting too narrow?00:00 A resilient market with weakness underneath00:58 Bonds, yields, and the stock market disconnect01:50 Why the resilience consensus worries Jason08:52 The trap of repeatedly buying the bond dip12:41 The Russell 2000 signal Jason is watching14:29 Is the whole market resilient—or just AI?15:50 What the late 1990s can teach us25:03 Why weak breadth isn’t a timing signal27:10 Long leading stocks, short the Dow33:33 The danger of trusting one indicator38:11 Conflicting signals and knowing when to wait40:26 Missing big trends: Tesla, Apple, and investor bias45:05 Risk management and letting the market confirm47:11 What Matt and Jason are watching next

Join Matt’s FREE live AMA tomorrow, Tuesday! Bring your stock and trading questions. Register here:https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/1917900177069/WN_jeYuoQGdTxGh-N4_4Hbfaw Can’t attend live? Register to receive the recording.Connect with the hosts:• Matt Caruso — Caruso Insights• Jason Shapiro — Crowded Market ReportThe bears got the headlines they wanted. Stocks rallied anyway.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down a market that keeps absorbing bad news—and explain why the reaction can tell you more than the headline itself.Matt highlights strength across AI hardware, cybersecurity, software, and healthcare, while Jason explains why crowded positioning alone isn’t enough to make a contrarian trade. They also debate whether bonds need to recover for stocks to keep climbing, challenge the AI bubble narrative, and discuss the evidence they want before increasing exposure.Plus: why following the tape means being willing to change your mind, why a bullish outlook doesn’t justify going all in, and how to build a trading process you can stick with through months of frustrating price action.In this episode:• The bond market debate: positioning, sentiment, and confirmation• What the semiconductor rebound says about bad-news failure• AI leadership beyond hardware• Bearish sentiment near market highs• Matt’s up/down volume and high-yield bond indicators• Position sizing, risk management, and staying flexible• Building a trading process that fits your lifeSubscribe to Markets Unscripted for weekly conversations with Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro.00:00 Stocks rally as bad news fails to break the market01:59 Jason’s bond warning: crowded positioning isn’t enough04:32 The three ingredients of a contrarian trade06:04 Semiconductors rebound after the AI scare07:39 Matt’s approach to finding relative strength09:23 Do higher interest rates threaten the AI trade?11:14 AI funding, regulation, and the IPO narrative14:07 Why Jason challenges the AI bubble comparison17:49 AI leadership expands beyond hardware21:49 How traders think about participating in bubbles24:02 Bearish sentiment near market highs25:31 Matt’s indicators: volume and high-yield bonds29:00 Why this breakout may look different from April’s rally32:00 Following the tape without going all in36:02 Compounding, drawdowns, and thinking beyond one trade39:18 Lessons from trading through uncertainty40:29 Predictions, confirmation bias, and financial media42:47 Accepting uncertainty and managing risk44:25 Building a process that fits your life45:54 Closing thoughts

Oil is above $100. The 10-year yield has touched 5%. Rate hikes are being priced in, and new concerns are building around the future of AI.On paper, it looks like the perfect environment for stocks to break down—but the market continues to hold near its highs.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro examine what the market’s resilience may be telling investors. They discuss whether a Fed rate hike could unexpectedly become a bullish catalyst, why trading the headlines can be so dangerous, and what the market’s reaction to bad news reveals beneath the surface.They also explore the motives behind calls to slow AI development, the enormous capital still flowing into the industry, and why returning to the market with leveraged call options could be a classic case of revenge trading.In this episode:Why the market refuses to break despite mounting risksWhether a rate hike could actually help stocks and bondsWhat oil above $100 and the 10-year yield at 5% meanWhy the reaction to news matters more than the headlineThe contradiction inside the latest AI warningsThe hidden risks of leverage and optionsWhy discipline and process ultimately separate successful tradersFollow Matt Caruso and Caruso Insights:https://www.carusoinsights.comFollow Jason Shapiro and Crowded Market Report:https://crowdedmarketreport.comThis content is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.

The market has spent months stuck in neutral—but beneath the surface, something may be changing.Bond yields remain one of the biggest pressures facing stocks, particularly the AI companies spending heavily to build out infrastructure. Yet several former market leaders are beginning to show strength again, even while the major indexes remain below their recent highs.In this episode, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro examine what could finally move the market out of its sideways range—and why the reaction to the next inflation report may matter far more than the number itself.They discuss:• The signal that would show stocks are beginning to look beyond inflation• Why a market that refuses to fall on bad news deserves attention• Renewed strength across AI, semiconductor, power and infrastructure stocks• How to separate a temporary squeeze from the start of a sustainable move• Why betting on the end of the financial system has historically been a losing strategy• Crowded positioning in bonds, wheat, corn, cotton and other agricultural markets• What weakness in defense stocks may already be signaling• Why patience is essential when markets are trapped in a sideways environmentThe goal is not to predict CPI, interest rates or the Federal Reserve’s next decision. It is to watch how the market responds—and wait for the evidence before increasing risk.Learn more from Matt Caruso:https://www.carusoinsights.comRead Jason Shapiro’s Crowded Market Report:https://www.crowdedmarketreport.comThis content is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.

The S&P is 2% off all-time highs — so why are Meta, Oracle, Broadcom, Micron and most of the AI leaders ALREADY in bear markets?Matt Caruso and Jason break down what's really going on beneath a "calm" market: a bond market under pressure in every major country at once, credit spreads priced for perfection, a Treasury Secretary who suddenly won't stay off TV, and a tape that's telling you exactly when NOT to press. Plus a rare COT flip in the NASDAQ, the El Niño trades (sugar, cotton, corn) getting dangerously crowded, why Bitcoin is the only thing working, and what Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole message means for the Fed.⏱ TIMESTAMPS00:00 Late-summer chop — markets biased to the downside02:49 The crowded 30-year bond trade (why COT alone isn't enough)05:00 It's global: Japan, Germany, UK, Canada yields all breaking out06:26 AI capex is now DEBT-fueled — why bonds ARE the AI trade09:29 "It'll make '08 look like a day in the park"11:42 Is Bessent panicking? The election-year parallel to 200813:15 High beta must lead — and the leaders are in bear markets15:06 Bitcoin: the only thing rallying15:35 Market internals: highs vs. lows show a stalled, defensive tape21:15 The blown-up hedge fund's stocks — 25% now at new lows24:36 The Barron's cover says "keep dancing" (contrarian alarm?)26:33 Fading El Niño: sugar, cotton & corn getting crowded31:02 Rare COT flip in the NASDAQ — specs are buying the dip33:33 NVIDIA's $650B revenue path vs. an awful tape35:56 IPO froth returns: Anthropic, OpenAI & bubble signs37:48 The 2000 playbook: indices at highs while leaders crash40:10 Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole: humility returns to the Fed44:31 Bottom line: it all comes down to the bond marketIf you got value from this, do the algo thing — hit LIKE and SUBSCRIBE so you don't miss next week's episode.This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.#stockmarket #bondmarket #aistocks #investing #trading #bitcoin

The major indexes may still be near their highs, but beneath the surface, the market is sending a very different message.Consumer staples are outperforming. Coca-Cola is pushing higher. NVIDIA and other AI leaders are weakening—even when the news appears positive. At the same time, rising long-term yields and intervention in the Treasury market are raising bigger questions about how the enormous AI buildout will be financed.In this episode, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro discuss:• Why defensive stocks are suddenly taking the lead• What the bond market may be warning investors about• Why AI stocks are struggling to rally on good news• The growing financing risk behind the AI infrastructure boom• Why long-term bonds may be the most contrarian trade in the world• How professional traders stack the odds without predicting the future• Why position sizing matters—even when the setup looks perfectThe market does not care about the story. Ultimately, the tape tells you what is actually happening.Learn more from Matt Caruso and Caruso Insights:https://www.carusoinsights.comRead Jason Shapiro’s Crowded Market Report:https://www.crowdedmarketreport.comThis content is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.#StockMarket #AIStocks #NVIDIA #BondMarket #Trading

The market is sitting near all-time highs—but beneath the surface, some of its former leaders are flashing warning signs. In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro examine why many AI-related stocks have struggled to reclaim their highs despite a powerful rebound in the broader indexes. They break down the changing leadership in names such as NVIDIA, AMD, ARM, Dell, Caterpillar, Nebius, and others—and discuss why traders should never fall in love with yesterday’s winners. Jason also reveals one of the most crowded trades he currently sees, while Matt explains why rising volatility and weakening relative strength have pushed him toward a more cautious posture. Then, the conversation turns to one of the most misleading statistics in trading: win rate. Why can a 70%, 80%, or even 90% win rate be a major red flag? Matt and Jason explain how traders can win repeatedly and still suffer devastating losses—and why risk-to-reward, drawdowns, and the size of your winners matter far more than simply being right. In this episode: • Why former AI leaders are struggling• The warning beneath the market’s record highs• Why lagging stocks are rarely bargains• Jason’s crowded-trade warning on copper• The hidden danger of short selling• Why trading more often can work against you• The truth behind advertised 90% win rates• How professional traders evaluate performance Learn more from Matt Caruso and Caruso Insights:https://www.carusoinsights.com Follow Jason Shapiro and the Crowded Market Report:https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com This content is provided for educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized investment advice.

The market is back near all-time highs, corporate earnings are surging, and strength is expanding far beyond a handful of AI stocks. Yet many traders remain fixated on finding the next major collapse.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro examine why bearish arguments can sound so convincing—even while the market continues moving higher. They discuss the danger of becoming emotionally attached to the short side, why traders should focus on the market’s reaction to news, and what would actually signal that the bullish trend is beginning to break.Matt and Jason also break down the crowded positioning in the Dow, the recent breakout and reversal in the S&P 500, the upcoming inflation test, booming corporate earnings, expanding liquidity, and the growing strength across international markets, commodities, and traditional industries.The goal is not to remain bullish forever. It is to stop predicting what should happen and start responding to what the market is actually telling you.

AI stocks finally got hit with their first major test of this uptrend.After months of relentless strength, the leading AI names saw sharp volatility, major pullbacks, and a wave of rotation into banks, biotech, gold, small caps, and other areas of the market.So is the AI trade over?Or is this just the first real shakeout before the next leg higher?In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down the current market rotation, the crowded macro narrative around rates, the setup in gold and the dollar, why banks and healthcare have started to lead, and what the recent selloff in AI stocks may really be telling investors.They also discuss why big winners come with brutal pullbacks, why process matters more than prediction, and why no strategy avoids pain — it only defines how you handle it.Topics covered:AI stock volatilityMarket rotation into banks, biotech, and small capsGold, bonds, the dollar, and rate expectationsWhy crowded narratives can be dangerousThe first pullback to the 50-day moving averageWhy the AI trade may not be over yetTrading psychology after big gainsWhy there is no “perfect” trading strategyThis is not financial advice. Markets involve risk, and all trading decisions should be based on your own process and risk management.

Everyone wants to call the AI trade over.But what if this is not the end of the move — just the rotation before the next leg higher?In this episode, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why the market may be shifting beneath the surface, how small caps, banks, healthcare, housing, and AI leaders are rotating, and why the biggest mistake traders make is letting scary narratives override process.Matt also compares today’s AI buildout to the railroad boom of the 1800s — a massive infrastructure cycle that almost nobody believed in at the time — while Jason lays out the real risk: not that AI disappears, but that leverage, hubris, or credit stress eventually breaks something.They also discuss why bearish arguments always sound smarter, why bull markets are harder to sit through than people think, and how to use market signals instead of social media panic to guide decisions.