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Good morning! Today is Thursday, October 22nd 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Doug Bandow argues that Washington's attempts to micromanage European defense spending have produced only frustration on both sides, and that a genuine America First policy would treat European governments as allies rather than dependents. Daniel R. DePetris surveys the mounting costs of Operation Epic Fury, from a depleted munitions stockpile to vulnerable Gulf bases, and contends that a post-American Middle East is both overdue and already quietly taking shape. and now for the details. We begin this morning in the transatlantic alliance, where tensions between Washington and its European partners are rising sharply over defense spending. President Trump continues to press European governments to dramatically increase their military outlays, and NATO leaders, including Secretary General Mark Rutte and Supreme Allied Commander General Alexus Grynkewich, have talked tough about deterring Russian aggression. But the reality on the ground is far less confident. In the United Kingdom, new Prime Minister Andy Burnham is staring down a forty-seven billion dollar budget gap, and this week London announced cuts of some two-point-seven billion dollars to front-line army equipment. France is bracing for a bond sell-off after a weekend of violent protests, and populist movements critical of military spending are gaining strength from Italy to Poland to Germany. As Doug Bandow reports for The American Conservative, European officials are increasingly open about their frustration. Italian parliamentarian Lia Quartapelle was quoted telling Politico Europe that Trump quote "cannot be trusted and we are on our own." Bandow argues that the current arrangement serves no one well. Europeans remain dependent on an increasingly irascible and unreliable patron, while the United States continues to underwrite the defense of a prosperous continent fully capable of defending itself. Meanwhile, Trump's efforts to extract commercial concessions as the price of continued American protection, Bandow writes, hurt American consumers more than they help them. His recommendation: Washington should stop micromanaging European militaries, state plainly what it intends to do, and allow European governments to make their own security choices as allies, not dependents. That, Bandow concludes, would be a genuinely America First agenda. Turning to the Persian Gulf, where Operation Epic Fury has now entered its eighth month. By the Pentagon's own admission, the war with Iran has cost American taxpayers more than forty billion dollars, and the U.S. military has expended over sixty percent of its stockpile of air defense interceptors as well as many of its most advanced precision munitions. Allied orders from Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea are being delayed, and air defense assets normally positioned in Asia have been shifted to the Gulf. Iranian strikes have damaged buildings on American bases in at least eight Middle Eastern countries, and the headquarters of the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet in Bahrain is now considered so vulnerable that resupply operations have moved to Diego Garcia, more than two thousand miles away. Daniel R. DePetris writes that the war has exposed the fundamental weakness of a regional posture built up since the 1991 Gulf War. The constellation of bases from Kuwait to Qatar to the UAE, once considered sound investments, have become liabilities. Arab governments are quietly hedging. In August, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, which includes a mutual-defense clause modeled on NATO's Article Five. Kuwait has signed its own defense accord with Pakistan, and the UAE has reportedly allowed the deployment of Israeli air defense systems on its territory. DePetris argues this reassessment is overdue, and that Washington should actively encourage a post-American Middle East by drawing down forces from vulnerable Gulf bases. The record of American intervention in the region, he writes, is one of hubris, failure, and unanticipated costs, and the sooner the United States abandons its role as regional policeman, the sooner lasting stability will become possible. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Tuesday, October 20th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Luke Nicastro surveys the riots convulsing France and finds the same combustible mix of cost-of-living pain, fiscal reckoning, and mass migration taking hold across Europe, with continued decline the likeliest trajectory. As the war with Iran enters its two hundred and thirty-fourth day, Sergey Lavrov lands in Tehran offering Russian mediation, even as Moscow quietly aids Iranian targeting of U.S. forces and President Trump touts a new Russian diesel deal. Iranian strikes on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz have made October the worst month of the war for vessel attacks, driving Brent crude to one hundred and ten dollars and American gasoline to four dollars and thirty cents a gallon. and now for the details. We begin this morning in France, where weeks of unrest have escalated into some of the worst street violence the country has seen in years. What began as student demonstrations over school conditions and university admissions has swelled into a broader revolt, joined by trade unionists and radicals, taking aim at fuel prices, the cost of living, government budget cuts, and ultimately the very notion of authority. This past weekend alone, nearly a thousand police officers and gendarmes were injured, more than twenty-four hundred arrests were made, and the town hall of Limoges, a building that survived two world wars, was gutted by arson. Similar demonstrations have now broken out in Madrid, Milan, Lisbon, and Brussels. Writing for The American Conservative, Luke Nicastro argues that the conditions driving the unrest are common across the continent. He points to three converging failures: a cost of living crisis sharpened by energy prices France cannot control; a looming fiscal reckoning that has forced even President Macron's government to propose spending cuts; and the deep social fractures produced by mass migration, with nearly twelve percent of the French population now foreign-born. Overlaying all of it, Nicastro writes, is the bankruptcy of a political establishment led by a president with a fifteen percent approval rating. Nicastro sees some possibility of renewal through rising populist parties like the National Rally and the AfD, but he is sober about the material dilemma Europe faces: faltering economic competitiveness, a worsening affordability crisis, and the real prospect that the technologies shaping the future, especially artificial intelligence, will pass the continent by. His conclusion: continued decline is more probable than not, though the collapse, if it comes, will play out over years and decades rather than all at once. Turning to the war with Iran, now in its two hundred and thirty-fourth day. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arrived in Tehran on Monday for talks aimed at preventing further escalation in the Middle East. Moscow has indicated it would be willing to mediate between Washington and Tehran. President Trump said Sunday he had struck a deal to import Russian diesel, citing in part what he described as the limited nature of Moscow's support for Iran during the war. Writing on Truth Social, the president said Russia is doing very little, if anything, to help the Islamic Republic, and that he wants to keep it that way. News reports and expert analyses, however, indicate Russia has provided Iran with satellite intelligence used for targeting American forces and assets. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi issued a sharp response to the president's threats, writing on X that the last time Mr. Trump wanted to, quote, finish the job, Iran emerged even stronger. Araghchi said an Iranian proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains on the table. Andrew Day reports for The American Conservative that Iran has escalated strikes on vessels around the Strait, making October the worst month for such attacks since the war began. The consequences are showing up at American gas pumps. Brent crude hit a five-month high of one hundred and ten dollars a barrel on Friday. The average price of regular gasoline in the United States now stands at four dollars and thirty cents a gallon, up from two dollars and ninety-eight cents before the war. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Monday, October 19th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Jude Russo examines how Erdoğan, once jailed by Turkey's Kemalist "deep state," has become the establishment he spent his career fighting, even as inflation, repression, and succession questions cloud his foreign policy winning streak. With 92 ambassadorial posts vacant, Peter Van Buren argues that if embassies can run for months under career chargés, the real question is whether political ambassadorships were ever as indispensable as their defenders claim. and now for the details. We turn first to Turkey, where President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is enjoying a run of foreign policy wins even as pressures mount at home. The Kurdistan Workers' Party has notionally dissolved after its imprisoned leader called for arms to be laid down. In Washington last month, Erdoğan secured a memorandum on civilian nuclear cooperation and defense goods including jet engines. At July's NATO summit, President Trump signaled openness to lifting sanctions so Turkey could acquire F-35s. And in August, Ankara signed the Mecca Defense Alliance with Riyadh and Islamabad. Yet inflation still runs near 30 percent, growth is slowing, and Erdoğan's domestic tactics are growing more repressive. In May, the Erdoğan-appointed judiciary voided the leadership elections of the main opposition CHP, prompting riot police to physically remove its leader, Özgür Özel, from party headquarters. Özel broke away in July to form the Yeni Parti, accusing the "deep state" of persecuting Erdoğan's opponents. As Jude Russo writes in The American Conservative, this is a deeply ironic turn. "Deep state" is originally a Turkish term, describing the Kemalist elite complex that for decades knocked back popular, religiously-rooted politicians—including, once, Erdoğan himself, who was jailed in 1999 for reciting a nationalist poem. Russo argues Erdoğan was the earliest of the 21st century's right-wing populists, and his career now illustrates the classic populist dilemma: to advance his agenda, he had to become the establishment, inheriting its dysfunctions, or concentrate power in his own person, leaving the project vulnerable when he departs. At 72, with succession looming and figures like Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and son-in-law Selçuk Bayraktar in the mix, Russo observes it is difficult to imagine anyone filling Erdoğan's enormous role in the modern Turkish state. Next, a question about American diplomacy itself. The Trump administration currently has 92 ambassadorial seats sitting empty, with nominees either stuck in Senate confirmation or no nominee named at all. By comparison, at the same point in their presidencies, Biden had 54 vacancies and the first Trump administration had 55. Vacant posts include some significant ones—Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Germany among them. Senate Foreign Relations Democrat Jeanne Shaheen has accused the administration of retreating from the world stage, noting that China keeps ambassadors in nearly every capital. Writing in The American Conservative, Peter Van Buren—a State Department veteran of more than two decades—asks whether this is really the problem critics claim. Van Buren notes that since 1960, 72 percent of American ambassadors to desirable posts in Western Europe and the Caribbean have been political appointees, their primary qualification often being generous donations to the winning campaign. When an ambassador is absent, the embassy is led by a chargé—typically the deputy chief of mission, usually a seasoned Foreign Service Officer with deep country experience. Van Buren argues that embassies as currently constituted were designed for a 19th-century world without video calls, encrypted messaging, cabinet-level travel, and direct leader-to-leader communication. Critics, he writes, rarely identify specific policy outcomes that required a Senate-confirmed ambassador rather than a competent chargé. If 92 embassies can function for months without ambassadors, Van Buren suggests, the honest question is how indispensable those positions were in the first place. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Sunday, October 18th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Phillip Linderman digs into the Scoular bribery case and other federal prosecutions to argue that booming U.S.–Mexico trade is quietly fattening the cartels and that Washington needs a real Mexico trade plan before the 2027 USMCA review. On day 232 of the war with Iran, Tehran declares the Strait of Hormuz "closed" after a wave of tanker attacks, sending gas to $4.31 a gallon as Foreign Minister Araghchi hands Washington a seven-day ultimatum through Qatar. Katie Zacharia is out as White House press secretary after just days on the job, closing the shortest tenure in the position's history following a panned debut briefing and questions about her legal credentials. and now for the details. We begin this morning with a hard look at the hidden costs of cross-border commerce. The U.S. attorney for the Western District of Texas put it bluntly this past July: nothing crosses into or out of Mexico without the approval and payment of Mexican drug cartels. That statement came as the Justice Department prosecuted the Scoular Company, a Nebraska-based agricultural trading firm, under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. Scoular authorized more than four hundred thousand dollars in bribes to Mexican officials between 2015 and 2019, avoiding roughly six and a half million in inspection fees. Some of those proceeds, prosecutors say, ultimately benefited cartel associates. The company agreed to pay more than ten million dollars in penalties. A separate 2025 indictment against Los Angeles freight forwarder Sport LA alleges direct kickbacks to the Jalisco New Generation Cartel to facilitate billions in shipments. As Phillip Linderman writes for The American Conservative, these cases are not isolated incidents but windows into a vast complex of corruption that has a stranglehold on the Mexican state. Linderman argues that the NAFTA-era assumption that trade would modernize Mexican institutions and defeat the cartels has simply not panned out. Instead, the cartels have embedded themselves in legitimate commerce, taking their cut of extortion, protection payments, fuel theft, and shipping. Major U.S. investors like General Motors, Walmart, and Constellation Brands quietly absorb the security costs. With the U.S. Trade Representative now seeking public comment ahead of the 2027 review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, Linderman says Washington needs a real Mexico trade plan—one that reckons with the fact that growing commerce is also growing the cartels. Turning overseas, the war with Iran has reached day 232, and Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have sharply escalated. Four tankers came under attack in the last day alone, and roughly two dozen vessels have been hit over the past two weeks, making October the worst period for shipping since the opening weeks of the war. Two ships were struck by projectiles on Friday, and two supertankers reportedly struck mines on Saturday. The IRGC Navy, according to Iranian state media, declared the Strait of Hormuz "closed." Also on Saturday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran had transmitted a seven-day plan to Washington, by way of Qatar, to reopen the Strait. The choice, he said, now rests with the United States. Luke Nicastro, writing for The American Conservative, notes the pressure such a shutdown places on American consumers: AAA now reports the average price of regular gasoline in the United States at $4.31 a gallon, with diesel at $6.33. At the White House, Katie Zacharia confirmed Saturday on X that she is no longer serving as press secretary, calling it an honor to have worked for President Trump. Zacharia, who was relatively unknown before her selection, began the job on Monday and gave her debut press briefing on Tuesday. That performance was widely panned, including by other White House officials, and she faced additional criticism over allegations that she had represented herself as an attorney despite not having passed the bar exam. As Luke Nicastro reports for The American Conservative, the Trump administration moved on Friday to remove Zacharia from her post, making hers the shortest tenure of any White House press secretary in American history. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Saturday, October 17th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. W. James Antle III argues Trump has become a president of inflation and war, with the Iran conflict driving an energy price spike that threatens a midterm bloodbath for Republicans. As the Iran war reaches day 231, Trump floats striking Pickaxe Mountain and refuses to rule out the mother of all bombs, while Brent crude hovers near 106 dollars and gas climbs to 4.33 a gallon. A new book by Eli Clifton and Ian Lustick examines how the Israel lobby has grown richer and more aggressive since Mearsheimer and Walt, even as Israel's standing with American voters has collapsed. and now for the details. We begin with the political and economic storm clouds gathering over the White House just weeks before the midterm elections. The latest consumer price index shows inflation back up to 3.7 percent. President Trump's approval on the economy sits at just under 34 percent in the RealClearPolitics average, and on inflation specifically, nearly 70 percent of Americans disapprove. A recent Fox News poll put that disapproval number at 77 percent. As W. James Antle III writes for The American Conservative, these conditions are the result of the president's own choices. Antle argues the biggest driver of the recent price spike is energy costs tied to the war with Iran, a conflict Trump was warned by his own team would prompt Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz and choke off oil supplies. Antle draws a direct parallel to Joe Biden, who was similarly warned that pushing another round of COVID-era stimulus would fuel inflation and cost his party its majorities. Both men, Antle writes, ignored the warnings. Trump had routed the neoconservatives in his primary runs, yet he has now delivered them the war with Iran that George W. Bush never did. Antle notes that tariffs have added to voter unease about prices, but tariffs at least were part of the campaign. A war with Iran, he says, was not. Trump argues the inflation is a small price to pay for stopping an Iranian bomb. Antle counters that most voters don't see it that way, and that Trump himself was ready to end the fighting back in June. The president, Antle concludes, is now furiously campaigning in the reddest parts of the country, trying to prevent an electoral bloodbath of his own making. Staying with the Iran conflict, now in its 231st day. In an interview with Newsmax on Thursday, President Trump signaled a possible expansion of the air campaign, telling the network that the United States may need to hit Pickaxe Mountain, a fortified underground site believed central to Iran's nuclear program. In his words, quote, we're looking at Pickaxe Mountain. We may have to go there. We'll take a shot at that one. We'll knock it out fast, end quote. The president also declined to rule out using the GBU-43, the so-called mother of all bombs, against Iranian targets. Luke Nicastro reports for The American Conservative that the regional war continues to widen. Saudi forces announced the interception of multiple missiles and drones on Friday, following a deadly Houthi strike on the presidential palace in Aden earlier in the week. Fighting is also reported around Taiz, Yemen's third-largest city. Meanwhile, Iran's army chief, General Mohammad Akraminia, suggested on X that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen if U.S. forces leave the region, adding that if they don't leave, Iran will expel them. Nicastro notes the market impact for American families. Brent crude is trading near 106 dollars a barrel. AAA puts the national average for regular gasoline at 4 dollars and 33 cents, and diesel at 6 dollars and 33 cents a gallon. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Friday, October 16th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. In South Carolina, Senator Darline Graham is clinging to a one-point lead over Democrat Annie Andrews, as voter anger over the Iran war and six-dollar diesel threatens to flip a seat her brother Lindsey won by ten points in 2020. Jack Hunter reports that unease over the seat passing by "bloodright," combined with lingering support for America First primary challenger Ralph Norman, has some conservatives floating a write-in campaign against the appointed senator. Jude Russo argues that Ukraine's reported exhaustion of Patriot interceptors exposes the hard arithmetic of a depleted American arsenal, and warns that trying to sustain two major wars across two theaters is madness. and now for the details. We begin in South Carolina, where a Senate race that should be a Republican walkover has turned into a dead heat. Senator Darline Graham, appointed in July to fill out the term of her late brother Lindsey Graham, is clinging to a one-point lead over Democratic pediatrician Annie Andrews, according to late September polls from Trafalgar and Insider Advantage. A Rasmussen survey released Friday put Graham at forty-nine, Andrews at forty-five. For context, Lindsey Graham won reelection in 2020 by ten points. Andrews has centered her campaign on rising gasoline and diesel prices, tying them directly to the ongoing war with Iran — and reminding voters that Senator Graham voted three times to continue that war. In Sunday night's debate, Graham defended the war, invoked peace through strength, and pledged to stand with Israel, even blaming Democrats for Iran's nuclear program. As Jack Hunter reports for The American Conservative, Hunter — himself a South Carolinian — still expects Graham to win, but says the closeness of the race would be unthinkable absent the political context created by Trump's war. Many conservatives who had backed Lindsey's America First primary challenger, Representative Ralph Norman, are uneasy about a Senate seat passing by what Hunter calls bloodright, and some are even organizing a write-in campaign. Hunter notes House Speaker Mike Johnson's recent attempt to blame fuel prices on the Strait of Hormuz rather than on Republican policy — a dodge, Hunter writes, that South Carolina voters are unlikely to buy. Turning to the war in Ukraine. CNN reported Thursday that Ukraine has run out of Patriot interceptor missiles, following days of friction between Washington and Kiev over intelligence-sharing, internet support, and Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. Two weeks ago, Axios reported that the United States had moved Patriot batteries to Saudi Arabia and Qatar to protect Gulf energy infrastructure from Iranian attack. As Jude Russo writes for The American Conservative, material reality is beginning to bite. Russo argues that the White House's reported cooling toward Ukraine may simply reflect the hard arithmetic of a depleted arsenal: there are only so many missiles to go around, and the United States will not sacrifice its own personnel and economic security for Kiev. He cites Jennifer Kavanagh's reporting in TAC that continued operations in Iran will come at the cost of readiness in other theaters. Russo notes the dynamic that has long bedeviled negotiations — when Russia struggles, Ukraine stiffens; when Ukraine struggles, Russia presses on — and expresses doubt that President Trump's deal waiving sanctions on Russian diesel will meaningfully soften Moscow's position. Russo does not conceal his frustration. The limits of the American defense-industrial base, he writes, have long been visible, as obvious as an iceberg on the horizon. Trying to sustain two major wars in two theaters, he concludes, is madness — and, he adds, don't even mention Taiwan. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Thursday, October 15th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Trump's surprise diesel deal with Putin has shattered trust with Kiev, prompting Zelensky to call the arrangement dishonest and Trump to suggest Ukraine needs a new president, with Ted Snider arguing the real win for Moscow is decoupling U.S.–Russia diplomacy from the war itself. U.S. inflation climbed to 3.7 percent in September as Middle East conflict drove energy prices higher, even as Trump hinted at expanded action against Iran and the Saudi–Houthi war escalated with strikes on Riyadh and Aramco's headquarters. Kimberly Guilfoyle resigned as ambassador to Greece amid corruption allegations, including a reported request for $100,000 from a Trump donor in exchange for administration access. and now for the details. We begin with a diplomatic rupture between Washington and Kiev. Last Friday, while Ukrainian negotiators were meeting with U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff in Miami, President Trump announced he had struck a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Under the arrangement, Moscow will lift its export ban on diesel fuel and supply hundreds of thousands of tons to the global market in the coming months, eventually totaling nearly five million tons. In exchange, the U.S. Treasury will issue a temporary general license allowing Russia to sell diesel through April of next year. Ukrainian negotiators left Miami in anger, skipped the second day of talks, and President Zelensky called the deal "not fair and not honest." Hours later, Ukraine struck a Russian oil refinery. Trump responded sharply, suggesting it was time for Ukraine to find a new president. As Ted Snider reports, the economic effects of the deal will likely be modest on both sides. Russia's diesel surplus would have found buyers anyway, and the volumes involved are small compared with daily global consumption. The real significance, Snider argues, is political and symbolic. Moscow has secured an economic arrangement with Washington without making any concessions in the Ukraine peace negotiations. That unshackling of U.S.–Russia diplomacy from the war, Snider writes, is the true Russian victory. Meanwhile, Witkoff and Kushner have warned Kiev that intelligence sharing could be cut, Elon Musk has backed Trump's call to replace Zelensky, and SpaceX has reportedly imposed limits on some Starlink services inside Ukraine, disrupting combat drone missions. Turning to the Middle East and its cost at home. U.S. inflation jumped to 3.7 percent in September, up from 3.4 percent the month before, as conflict in the Middle East pushed energy prices higher. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the figures on Wednesday. It was the first monthly rise since May. President Trump, speaking at a campaign rally in Alaska, again hinted at expanded hostilities against Iran, telling the crowd, "Wait till you see what we do to Iran. We're gonna do a number." The Atlantic and other outlets have reported the White House has been pressing the Pentagon to prepare plans for imminent strikes, though Trump denied he would act before the November midterms. From Tehran, the naval commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Ali Ozmaei, challenged U.S. warships to approach the Strait of Hormuz, saying his forces were "impatient to sink American warships." As Andrew Day reports, the war between Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni Houthis also escalated Wednesday, with explosions heard in Riyadh and the Houthis striking the headquarters of Saudi oil company Aramco, pledging further attacks. The inflation data underscores how a distant war is beginning to reach into American household budgets. In Washington personnel news, Kimberly Guilfoyle, the U.S. ambassador to Greece, resigned Tuesday amid corruption allegations. The Wall Street Journal reported she engaged in repeated misconduct, including a threat against a host nation official and influence peddling. In one instance, Guilfoyle allegedly asked a Trump donor for one hundred thousand dollars to pay down her credit card bill, promising administration access in return. White House press secretary Katie Zacharia confirmed earlier Tuesday that the administration had asked Guilfoyle to step down. In her resignation statement, Guilfoyle thanked the president and denied wrongdoing, calling the allegations false and pledging to defend her reputation. President Trump addressed the matter later that day, saying, "She was doing a good job, but we didn't like what we were reading." Andrew Day has the story for TAC. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Wednesday, October 14th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Andrew Day argues Secretary of State Marco Rubio's Athens address on Western civilization handed Tehran a propaganda victory by casting ancient Persia as an enemy of the West, reinforcing the impression that Washington seeks to annihilate Iranian culture itself. David Brady contends that Anthropic chief Dario Amodei's call to "pace the frontier" of AI development would entrench an industry cartel, enriching established players while smothering open-source rivals and smaller competitors under the weight of new regulation. Scott Greer weighs in on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's plan to execute Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan by firing squad on a live broadcast, warning that while the method is defensible, televising the killing risks turning Hasan into a martyr abroad and eroding support for capital punishment at home. and now for the details. We begin with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose recent address on Western civilization, delivered in Athens against the backdrop of the Acropolis, is drawing scrutiny for its treatment of Iran and ancient Persia. In the speech, Rubio invoked the second Persian invasion of Greece and the stand of the 300 Spartans, drawing a line between the ancient Persian empire and the modern Islamic Republic, which he described as a cult of death. Iranian officials seized on the remarks, with a senior advisor to the Supreme Leader saying Rubio's problem is not with the Islamic Revolution but with a strong, independent Iranian civilization. As Andrew Day reports for The American Conservative, the speech was, in his view, a public relations coup for Tehran. Day argues it reinforced the perception that Washington seeks not just regime change but the annihilation of Iranian culture itself—an impression already fed by President Trump's wartime rhetoric. Day notes that other Western thinkers, from Hegel to Nietzsche to Goethe, held pre-Islamic Persian civilization in high esteem, and that even Samuel Huntington framed tensions with Iran in modern political terms, not as a clash with Persian heritage. Day contends that Rubio's framing serves an Israeli-shaped vision of the West crafted to justify ongoing war, and he suggests the secretary should walk the remarks back and acknowledge Persia's cultural contributions before further damage is done. Turning to the business of artificial intelligence, Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei has published an essay urging AI companies and the federal government to, in his phrase, pace the frontier—slowing development through voluntary cooperation among firms and new regulation. Amodei warns of economic disruption, biological and cyber threats, and the possibility of losing human control over AI systems. Writing for The American Conservative, David Brady asks the classic question: who benefits? Brady argues that Amodei's proposals would, in effect, build an AI cartel that massively advantages large, established players like Anthropic itself. He notes that the evaluators Amodei favors have ties back to Anthropic—one key safety research outfit is funded in part by Open Philanthropy, whose co-founder now works at Anthropic and is married to its president, Dario Amodei's sister. Brady draws historical parallels to General Electric's Depression-era cartelization push that shaped the National Recovery Administration, and to the old railroad cartels that used published rates to lock out competition. He warns that burdensome rules would strangle open-source developers and smaller firms in the cradle, that calls for coordination with China would blunt competitors like DeepSeek, and that none of the current frontier labs are consistently profitable—giving them strong reasons to prefer regulated stasis over genuine competition. Brady's conclusion: the measures may fatten incumbents' bottom lines, but the bill will land on the American public. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced last week that Nidal Hasan, the Fort Hood shooter, will be executed by firing squad—and that the execution will be broadcast live. The announcement drew a cool reception. Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana said it would coarsen society. House Speaker Mike Johnson warned it could become a recruiting tool for future terrorists. Vice President J.D. Vance is reportedly not a fan, and President Trump has denied involvement in the decision. Writing for The American Conservative, Scott Greer argues that the firing squad itself is a sound choice—more effective and, in his view, more honest than lethal injection, which he says invites botched executions like the recent Christa Pike case in Tennessee. But Greer contends that livestreaming the killing is a serious miscalculation. Americans in 2026, he writes, are not the crowds of the 1870s. He points to how video of police shootings and immigration enforcement incidents has repeatedly shifted public sympathy toward the subjects

Good morning! Today is Tuesday, October 13th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Andrew Day argues in The American Conservative that Trump's second-term foreign policy, and especially the eighth-month-long Iran War, is accelerating the collapse of the global nonproliferation regime, with Saudi Arabia, Japan, South Korea, and even European allies now openly weighing the bomb. Brent crude topped 105 dollars a barrel Monday as fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis intensified, with Iran offering to mediate and Trump signaling he may join Saudi retaliatory strikes after an attack on Riyadh's main airport. Federal agents raided the Washington-area home of Democratic Congresswoman Ilhan Omar on Monday as part of a criminal investigation tied to long-standing Republican allegations of immigration fraud, which she denies. and now for the details. Our lead story this morning: the long shadow cast by the ongoing Iran War over the global nuclear order. In a sweeping analysis for The American Conservative, Andrew Day argues that President Trump's second-term foreign policy, and especially the war with Iran now well into its eighth month, is accelerating the collapse of the nonproliferation regime that has largely held since the Cold War. Day reports that at least 18 American service members have been killed and more than 800 wounded in the conflict, that U.S. stockpiles of key defensive munitions have been depleted, and that oil prices have surged, feeding inflation and raising recession fears. But he writes that the deeper damage may be strategic. Rosemary Kelanic of Defense Priorities told TAC the lesson for states not aligned with Washington is simple: get a nuclear weapon. Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association said Iranian officials have lost faith in American good-faith negotiations and are now looking at a secret weapons program. Day notes that the New START treaty with Russia expired this February after Trump rebuffed an extension offer from President Putin, and administration officials are now weighing new deployments and even a nuclear test. France has announced its first nuclear arsenal expansion in decades, with President Macron declaring, quote, "to be free, we have to be feared." Saudi Arabia is pursuing enrichment capabilities, and officials in Japan and South Korea are openly debating weaponization as U.S. assets shift to the Middle East. Russian analyst Fyodor Lukyanov told TAC that denuclearization is now, quote, "utopian," and Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute said the war has dramatically changed the internal Iranian debate about building the bomb, especially since Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening strikes and his fatwa against nuclear weapons has not been renewed by his son and successor, Mojtaba. Day concludes that despite Trump's claim to have achieved the essential denuclearization of Iran, Tehran retains its enriched uranium and the technical knowledge to reconstitute its program, and he predicts the Islamic Republic will now make a dash for the bomb. Related to that lead story, the war's regional spillover continues. Brent crude topped 105 dollars a barrel Monday morning, a two-week high, as fighting intensifies between Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni Houthis. President Trump said Saturday he may join Saudi retaliatory strikes after Houthi attacks that included a strike on the main international airport in Riyadh, where operations remain suspended. Andrew Day reports for TAC that Iran offered Sunday night to mediate between Riyadh and the Houthis, with the Iranian foreign ministry warning that insisting on a military approach will further complicate the situation. Day notes that while the Houthis are often described as an Iranian proxy, regional experts say they act independently in pursuit of their own objectives. A 2022 truce between the Houthis and Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces has broken down in recent months, and Iran's national security advisor warned Sunday that Tehran would target digital infrastructure across the Gulf if direct hostilities with the United States resume. Turning to Washington: federal agents raided the Washington-area home of Democratic Congresswoman Ilhan Omar of Minnesota on Monday as part of a criminal investigation. Andrew Day reports for TAC, citing the Associated Press, that two people familiar with the search said it was conducted by agents of the Department of Homeland Security. Vice President J.D. Vance said in May that the Trump administration would investigate Omar over allegations of immigration fraud. Some Republicans have alleged that Omar married her brother in 2009 to commit immigration fraud. Omar, a progressive Democrat who was born in Somalia, denies the allegations. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Monday, October 12th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Day 226 of the Middle East war brings an American among the dead in a Houthi strike on Riyadh's main airport, fighting along the Bab al-Mandab, and a fresh projectile hit on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz as diplomacy stalls and gasoline climbs to $4.36 a gallon. Juan David Rojas examines why Latin America's new right-wing governments—from Colombia's de la Espriella to Milei, Kast, and Noboa—have embraced Israel so demonstratively, even as majorities across the region tell Pew they view the Jewish state unfavorably. Rojas traces the phenomenon to elite deference to Washington, the political rise of evangelical and Pentecostal churches, and a web of arms, spyware, and intelligence deals that have reshaped the region's security landscape. and now for the details. We begin with the ongoing war in the Middle East, now in its two hundred and twenty-sixth day. The State Department has confirmed that one American was among the twelve reported dead in Saturday's Houthi strike on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The victim's name has not yet been disclosed. The Yemeni front has seen some of the most intense fighting in the region over the past week. The internationally recognized Yemeni government claimed Sunday to be advancing to retake territory on the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a chokepoint for Red Sea traffic the Houthis seized in September. Meanwhile, Iran appears to be continuing its campaign against tanker traffic in the Persian Gulf, with the UKMTO reporting that a projectile struck a tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz Sunday morning. As Jude Russo reports, diplomacy remains deadlocked. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, told the Tasnim news agency Sunday that American responses to Iranian conditions for ending the war contained, quote, "ambiguities" and were "inadequate." The war's strain on energy markets continues. AAA reports a national average price per gallon of four dollars and thirty-six cents for regular gasoline, and six dollars and twenty-eight cents for diesel. Across Latin America, a new wave of right-wing governments has moved quickly to deepen ties with Israel, even as public opinion in most of the region runs sharply the other way. Pew's 2026 polling shows that majorities in Chile, Colombia, Argentina, Brazil, and Peru hold unfavorable views of Israel, and nearly two-thirds in those countries express no confidence in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In a lengthy analysis for The American Conservative, Juan David Rojas examines why Latin American conservative leaders have chosen such a prominent pro-Israel posture despite the political costs at home. Rojas identifies three driving factors. The first, he writes, is the long-standing deference of Latin American elites to Washington; signaling support for Israel is a low-cost way of demonstrating loyalty to the Trump administration. The second is the rapid growth of evangelical and Pentecostal churches, which in Brazil and Central America have built a durable religious constituency aligned with Israel. The third is strategic: arms deals, surveillance tools, and intelligence partnerships. Rojas traces the pattern through Colombia's new president Abelardo de la Espriella, who has pledged to move his country's embassy to Jerusalem; through Chile's José Antonio Kast, Ecuador's Daniel Noboa, and Argentina's Javier Milei, who has visited Israel three times and spoken of converting to Orthodox Judaism after leaving office. Rojas notes that in Honduras, leaked recordings known as "Hondurasgate" purport to show Israeli officials working with the Trump administration to engineer the pardon of former president Juan Orlando Hernández, who was convicted in a U.S. court of trafficking five hundred tons of cocaine. Rojas concludes that outside Central America, these conservative victories have come in spite of their Zionism, not because of it, and he urges the Latin American right to recall an older, more pragmatic foreign policy tradition. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Sunday, October 11th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. W. James Antle III defends J.D. Vance's blunt definition of socialism, arguing the vice president captured what the modern left would actually do in power even if he skipped the textbook definition. Ted Galen Carpenter warns that while a full Chinese invasion of Taiwan looks unlikely under Trump and Xi's push for stability, Beijing retains gray-zone options like seizing distant islets in the South China Sea. Day two hundred twenty-five of the Iran War finds Vladimir Putin carrying Tehran's terms to Trump, as Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and Strait of Hormuz pressure keep Brent crude at a hundred and five dollars. and now for the details. Vice President J.D. Vance set off a round of debate this week with his offhand definition of socialism in the American context. Asked what the word means today, Vance replied that in practice it means wanting to replace American workers with foreign workers and wanting boys to play in girls' sports. Critics reached for their dictionaries and economics textbooks, accusing the vice president of butchering the technical meaning of the term. As W. James Antle III writes for The American Conservative, Vance may not have offered a textbook definition, but he gave a fair description of what modern adherents of the ideology would actually do if handed political power. Antle argues the real question Vance is raising is strategic: should the alternative to socialism be a libertarianism of big deficits and Mideast wars, or an honest defense of the mixed economy Americans actually live under. He points to figures like New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who repackages government expansion as warmth and community against the frigidity of rugged individualism. Antle's view is that today's left is less interested in bread-and-butter economics than in cultural transformation, and shows little genuine solidarity with the working Americans Vance grew up among. He faults the Republican establishment for letting opponents define the terms of debate, while conceding that neither party has offered a serious answer to the country's looming fiscal reckoning since the days of Calvin Coolidge. Fears of an outright Chinese invasion of Taiwan have cooled since President Trump returned to the White House. Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have both signaled they prefer stability, and after their May summit in Beijing and a follow-up meeting in Washington in September, Trump has publicly warned Taipei not to push the envelope on formal independence. Hawkish voices, including former National Security Adviser John Bolton and the editors of the Wall Street Journal, have accused the administration of insufficient support for the island. As Ted Galen Carpenter writes for The American Conservative, the near-term risk of a full military assault does appear low, but Beijing retains a long menu of so-called gray-zone options. Carpenter notes that a selective blockade of Taiwan would devastate global high-tech supply chains and almost certainly draw in Washington and other major powers, and the ongoing Iran War has shown just how hard it is to close a key maritime chokepoint. He points instead to a quieter option: seizing one of the small, distant islands in the South China Sea over which Taipei still claims sovereignty, such as Taiping in the Spratlys or Pratas Island. Such a move, Carpenter argues, would humiliate Taipei without triggering the kind of response a direct attack would. It would also put Washington in a bind, forcing a debate over whether the United States is prepared to risk a military clash with China over a few miniscule islets far from Taiwan itself. The Iran War reached day two hundred twenty-five with Russian President Vladimir Putin stepping in as a messenger between Tehran and Washington. The Kremlin said Saturday that Putin conveyed Iran's terms for ending the conflict to President Trump during a Friday phone call, after meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of a Commonwealth of Independent States summit in Turkmenistan. As Jude Russo reports for The American Conservative, the same phone call also produced a deal for sanction waivers on Russian diesel, as the Trump administration works to ease prices at the pump before the November third midterm elections. Russo notes that Iranian operations in the Strait of Hormuz continue to pressure world energy markets even as traffic through the waterway has improved. The parallel conflict between the Iran-aligned Houthis and Saudi Arabia is also hitting global logistics; Saudi authorities closed the Riyadh airport on Saturday after a Houthi missile attack. Brent crude closed Friday at a hundred and five dollars a barrel. AAA reported a national average Saturday of four dollars and thirty-seven cents a gallon for regular gasoline, and six dollars and twenty-eight cents for diesel. Those are today's highlights. For the full

Good morning! Today is Saturday, October 10th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Jason Jones argues that Ambassador Mike Huckabee must resign over a New York Times report alleging his embassy suppressed information about American citizens killed in the West Bank and sanitized reporting on the Netanyahu government. Arta Moeini compares the seventh month of the Iran War to the Roman Emperor Valerian's catastrophic Persian campaign, arguing that MAGA militarism has collided with the structural limits of American power. Moeini suggests this "Pyrrhic defeat" could finally force Washington to abandon the Carter Doctrine, retrench from the Persian Gulf, and allow a new regional security architecture to take shape. and now for the details. We begin this morning with a sharply argued piece calling for the resignation of the U.S. Ambassador to Israel. The New York Times reports that Ambassador Mike Huckabee's senior adviser, David Milstein, suppressed an embassy report and obstructed efforts by members of Congress to obtain information about American citizens killed in the West Bank since January 2022. Among the dead were journalist Shireen Abu Akleh and fourteen-year-old Amer Rabee. According to the Times, which cites fifteen U.S. officials and dozens of documents, embassy staff worked to sanitize reporting about the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In one case, a warning that settlement expansion could violate President Trump's opposition to West Bank annexation was reportedly blocked. In another, reporting on Israeli inaction against settler violence was replaced with a cable praising a crackdown. Responsible Statecraft had also reported last year that an embassy cable warning of looming famine in Gaza never reached Washington; Milstein, the stepson of talk radio host Mark Levin, instead sent favorable reporting about the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. Writing for The American Conservative, Jason Jones argues that Huckabee must resign, and that if he refuses, President Trump must remove him. Jones points to a pattern of poor judgment, including Huckabee's hosting of convicted Israeli spy Jonathan Pollard at the Jerusalem embassy last year, his mockery of Irish officials over trade restrictions on settlement goods, and his remark on a Tucker Carlson interview that it "would be fine" if Israel took territory from the Nile to the Euphrates. Jones contends an embassy that withholds warnings about settlement activity is obstructing the president's own stated policy, and that the families of nine Palestinian-Americans deserve a full accounting from their government. Turning to the broader war with Iran, now in its seventh month, tit-for-tat strikes have resumed between American forces and Tehran. The Houthis have tightened their grip on territory surrounding the Bab al-Mandab Strait and struck Saudi oil infrastructure, while Iran has stepped up attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Writing for The American Conservative, Arta Moeini argues this moment is a structural watershed on par with the fall of the Berlin Wall. He draws a historical parallel to the Roman Emperor Valerian, who marched into Persia in 260 A.D. expecting a swift victory and instead ended his days as a prisoner of the Sassanid Shah. Moeini writes that President Trump campaigned on ending foreign wars but launched a new one in Iran, and that what he calls "MAGA militarism" has run into the structural limits of American power. Operation Epic Fury, he notes, failed to topple the Islamic Republic. Iran's asymmetric strategy, leveraging mountain geography, underground missile cities, and mass-produced drones, has exposed U.S. bases as vulnerable targets. The Pentagon, Moeini reports, is now considering reducing America's Persian Gulf footprint after the war. Munition stockpiles, including Tomahawks, ATACMS, and Patriot interceptors, have been depleted. Moeini argues the Carter Doctrine's rationale has vanished, and that a retrenched Washington could save tens of billions annually, free up hardware for the Pacific, and allow a new regional security architecture, already taking shape in the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement among Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia, to mature. He calls this a potential "Pyrrhic defeat" that could finally force a disciplined America First realism. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Friday, October 9th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Philip Pilkington warns that Washington's fixation on the Strait of Hormuz is obscuring Iran's broader strategy of squeezing American financial markets, with Treasuries now trading like a meme stock and heating costs set to surge this winter. Brent crude spiked past $105 a barrel on reports the White House has asked the Pentagon for strike options against Iran ahead of the midterms, even as the President says he doesn't really want a peace deal. Jason Killmeyer proposes a 250,000-strong civilian Immigration Corps modeled on the Civilian Conservation Corps to make mass deportations logistically feasible and turn Americans from spectators into participants. and now for the details. Our top story this morning concerns the growing economic fallout from the war with Iran. For nearly two weeks, Washington has been consumed by debate over the Strait of Hormuz, with administration allies claiming the waterway has been reopened and the war effectively won. That claim was quickly complicated when Iran struck twelve ships in less than a week. Writing for The American Conservative, Philip Pilkington argues that the fixation on Hormuz is causing policymakers to miss the larger picture. As Pilkington reports, the market for U.S. Treasury debt is undergoing an epic sell-off, with one investment banker telling Bloomberg that Treasuries are, in his words, trading like a meme stock. Long-run returns on U.S. government bonds are now the worst in history. The president of the German central bank this week endorsed further diversification into gold. Pilkington points to a striking social media post from the speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, who published what he called the Straits Taylor Rule, an equation showing how Iranian pressure on the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb feeds directly into American inflation expectations and interest rates. By squeezing those chokepoints, Pilkington writes, Iran has gained de facto leverage over American financial markets. The pressure is being felt in the real economy as well. The Energy Information Agency expects American heating oil bills to rise 21 percent this winter. Diesel markets are entering a genuine crisis, prompting President Trump to float, and then walk back, a ban on diesel exports. Food prices, particularly sugar, are climbing. Pilkington's conclusion is sobering: Iran's strategy is to apply economic pressure until Washington backs off, and by the time it does, the damage to the American economy may take many years to undo. Staying with the Iran file, Brent crude oil spiked Thursday to over $105 per barrel on reports that President Trump could soon restart active hostilities. As Andrew Day reports for The American Conservative, The Atlantic says the White House has asked the Pentagon to develop strike options against Iranian targets that could be exercised ahead of the November midterms. NBC News has also reported that the administration is weighing large-scale military operations. At a campaign rally Wednesday, the President said he doesn't really want a peace deal with Iran. Day notes that oil prices have hovered around $100 a barrel over the past week even as Middle East oil exports have neared pre-war levels, with analysts attributing the stubbornly elevated prices to a risk premium on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The Yemeni Houthis, meanwhile, claimed Thursday to have again struck Saudi Arabia's main airport in Riyadh. Turning to immigration enforcement, there is a growing debate inside the Republican coalition over whether mass deportations are logistically feasible. Members of what some call the Republican amnesty caucus, including Representatives Maria Salazar of Florida, Don Bacon of Nebraska, and Glenn Thompson of Pennsylvania, argue the undertaking is simply too large. In a piece for The American Conservative, Jason Killmeyer offers a different approach. Killmeyer proposes that by mid-November, President Trump should establish an Immigration Corps and aim to hire 250,000 Americans in three months to handle deportation logistics and support law enforcement. He draws a historical parallel to the Civilian Conservation Corps, which in 1933 recruited roughly 275,000 men in just three months, and to the Civil Air Patrol, which organized civilian aviation skills for national service in 1941. As Killmeyer writes, immigration officers would remain responsible for traditional arrests, but a civilian Corps could handle transportation, records, medical support, and vehicle maintenance. He notes that Section 3161 of Title 5 already provides the staffing authority, the same mechanism used to stand up the DOGE project. Funding, he argues, is available through the Big Beautiful Bill signed earlier in the Trump administration. Killmeyer's broader argument is that the political class has treated Americans as spectators on this issue, w

Good morning! Today is Thursday, October 8th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Eight months into the Iran War, administration claims of "winning the battle of Hormuz" obscure a basic fact: the strait was open before the war began, while the U.S. now spends $1.3 billion a month on a blockade with no end in sight. Brent crude sits near $100 a barrel and diesel shipments remain scarce, with experts warning that Tehran may be allowing the strait to stabilize only to maximize the shock of its next escalation. The U.S. quietly pulled its B-1 bombers from Britain's Fairford air base over the weekend after intelligence pointed to a possible Iranian-linked drone plot, raising fresh questions about the vulnerability of America's global basing network. and now for the details. We begin with the ongoing war with Iran, now in its eighth month, and growing claims from the administration and its allies that the United States is winning what's being called the "battle of Hormuz." Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week that the Straits of Hormuz are open, with nearly as much oil flowing out now as before the conflict began. The phrase itself was coined by Mark Dubowitz of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, who argues Iran has already lost control of the waterway. But as Andrew Day reports for The American Conservative, that framing elides a basic fact: the Strait of Hormuz was open before the Iran War began. Day notes that in the last two weeks, Iran has escalated attacks on Hormuz shipping, striking roughly a dozen vessels, with at least one ship turning back on orders from Iran's Revolutionary Guards. Rosemary Kelanic of Defense Priorities told TAC that the battle isn't over and could stretch on indefinitely. The costs are substantial. The U.S. is spending an estimated 42 million dollars a day—about 1.3 billion dollars a month—enforcing its blockade on Iranian maritime exports. Roughly a third of deployed U.S. naval assets worldwide are now dedicated to the mission. Brent crude is hovering around 100 dollars a barrel, up from 70 before the war, and the Wall Street Journal reports that while crude is moving, diesel shipments remain minimal. Day writes that higher prices are themselves what's enticing captains, insurers, and carriers to risk the passage—meaning more oil flowing does not translate into relief at the pump. Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute suspects Tehran may be allowing the strait to stabilize precisely to maximize the shock when it reopens hostilities. Day concludes that public opposition to the war has just hit an all-time high. Related to that story, the Washington Post reported Tuesday that the United States withdrew its bombers from Britain's Fairford air base over the weekend amid concerns about a potential Iranian drone attack. As Jude Russo reports for The American Conservative, about a dozen B-1 bombers were pulled after British authorities announced that several men had been arrested for plotting an attack on the base. The Post, citing a British official and two people familiar with the decision, said U.S. intelligence had received warning of a potential strike. Vice President J.D. Vance said the planes had been moved out of, quote, "an abundance of caution." Russo also notes that despite improved transit numbers through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran struck eleven ships in the past week, and the Iran-aligned Houthis claimed strikes on airports in Riyadh, Abha, and Aden. Brent crude opened Wednesday at 101 dollars per barrel, with national gas prices averaging 4 dollars and 37 cents a gallon. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Wednesday, October 7th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Jude Russo warns that with debt service now consuming nineteen percent of federal spending, Americans face a stark choice between tolerating persistent inflation or submitting to a genuine age of austerity that neither party is preparing voters to accept. Ted Snider reports that Flávio Bolsonaro's surprise first-round lead over President Lula sets up an October 25 runoff shaped in part by an aggressive Trump administration pressure campaign, including tariffs, terror designations, and a last-minute suspension of consular services. On day 221 of the Iran War, the Houthis deny losing Red Sea coastal territory and claim strikes on Riyadh's main airport, as President Trump promises a swift end to the conflict and tumbling oil prices ahead of the midterms. and now for the details. We begin this morning with a sobering look at the nation's fiscal trajectory. Servicing the federal debt now costs the United States about one-point-two trillion dollars a year. That's roughly nineteen percent of annual federal spending, a line-item second only to Social Security. Bond markets have been tightening credit, growth is under pressure, and revenues are likely to disappoint even as the cost of carrying the debt climbs higher. As Jude Russo writes in The American Conservative, the old campus-left complaints about austerity after the 2008 crisis obscured a more complicated picture. Federal spending in fact kept growing through those years, and the bailouts and quantitative easing of that era largely bolstered financial institutions rather than Main Street, helping fuel both the Tea Party and Occupy movements. Whatever restraint remained vanished during Covid and the Biden presidency, with a second round of stimulus and sweeping packages for green energy and semiconductors. The result, Russo argues, was the worst inflation since the 1980s, and American voters delivered unified Republican government in 2024 in response, and may well throw Republicans out of Congress this year on the same grounds. Russo's point is that something has to give. Either Americans make political peace with running the economy hot and tolerating inflation, or real austerity arrives and clears the decks. Yet neither party, he observes, is preparing the country for that choice. Democrats are debating how much socialism to embrace. Republicans, Russo writes, have decided they don't mind cranking on the taps for their own priorities, from confronting Iran to pro-natalist policy. A statesman running in 2028, he suggests, would be sounding the alarm now. Instead, the politicians are likely to pass the buck until the music stops. Turning to the hemisphere, Brazilians went to the polls Sunday in the first round of a presidential election that confounded expectations. Flávio Bolsonaro, the right-wing son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, edged out incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 47 percent to 45. Because no candidate cleared a majority, the race moves to a runoff on October 25. Da Silva, who had expected a first-round victory, now faces a competitive second round. Writing for The American Conservative, Ted Snider reports that one factor in Bolsonaro's strong showing was active intervention by the Trump administration. Snider traces a longer American history of involvement in Brazilian politics, from the 1964 coup against João Goulart to Washington's accommodation of the government that replaced Dilma Rousseff. In the current cycle, Snider writes, three Democratic senators—Jeanne Shaheen, Peter Welch, and Tim Kaine—have accused the administration of efforts to interfere with and potentially undermine Brazil's general election. Snider details several specific actions. Tariffs were imposed on Brazil, with President Trump citing what he called insidious attacks on free elections as justification. Flávio Bolsonaro's brother Eduardo lobbied for those tariffs. The administration designated two Brazilian criminal groups as terrorist organizations over da Silva's objections, and directed funds to right-wing civil society organizations. The U.S. consulate in São Paulo convened anti-Lula influencers, and consular services were abruptly suspended two days before the election. Latin America expert Mark Weisbrot told TAC that Trump made clear Brazilians would face punishments if they didn't elect Bolsonaro. Snider notes that in the last seven Latin American presidential elections since early 2025, right-wing candidates have won, and President Trump has publicly boasted about the role he played in several of them. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.