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AI leaves the building. Five days at the podium – that is it? Tesla finally takes flight… $500 toothbrush can’t handle water. LESSON – DO NOT MIX YOUR POLITICS WITH MARKETS   PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X Warm-Up - AI leaves the building - Five days at the podium - Tesla finally takes flight - $500 toothbrush can't handle water - LESSON - DO NOT MIX YOUR POLITICS WITH MARKETS Markets - AI trade starts to crack - Two trillion deeper in debt - Hot inflation, cooler yields - Earnings face the pressure test DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com Trump Media's fusion fizzles - DJT shares headed toward an all-time low Friday despite its pending merger with nuclear-fusion developer TAE. - TAE shareholders would receive Trump Media stock, leaving them exposed to the declining share price. - Billions in Trump's paper wealth have evaporated since the company went public. DJT Stock INFLATION WON'T LEAVE - September CPI rose 0.6%; annual inflation hit 3.7% versus 3.6% expected. - Core prices rose 0.3% versus 0.2% expected; annual core inflation reached 2.6%. - Producer prices jumped 1.3%, the biggest increase since March 2022; up 6.3% annually. - Wholesale goods prices rose 2.6%; services increased 0.8%. TWO TRILLION SHORT - Fiscal 2026 deficit reached $1.992 trillion, up $217 billion; third-largest on record. - Revenue rose 3% to $5.4 trillion. Spending increased 6% to $7.4 trillion. - Debt-service costs climbed 12% to $1.36 trillion; national debt exceeded $40 trillion. - Tariff refunds totaled $145 billion following the Supreme Court ruling; net tariff revenue fell 11%. BONDS FIND BUYERS - The 10-year Treasury ended the week near 5.10%; the 30-year near 5.44%. - The 30-year yield fell about 16 basis points, its biggest weekly decline since April 2025. - Yields declined for the week despite hotter inflation reports. AI TRADE UNRAVELS - Nasdaq suffered its worst week since June, ending a four-week winning streak. - Semiconductor ETF SOXX posted its longest losing streak in 20 years. - VIX moved above 20 as investors questioned AI spending and investment returns. - Energy, utilities and consumer staples attracted interest during the tech retreat. COREWEAVE CREDIT CRACKS - Five-year credit protection reached 1,194.5 basis points, a record intraday level. - Swaps implied more than a 60% probability of default within five years. - The gauge jumped as investors reacted to plans to tap insurance capital. - CoreWeave's speculative B rating and bond yields above 10% highlight refinancing pressure. - The 60% figure is market-implied pricing, not a confirmed default or a near-term deadline. LENNAR FINDS A FAMILIAR BUYER - Hunterbrook alleges Millrose, spun off by Lennar in 2025, bought roughly $200 million of Lennar homes. - At least 356 purchases allegedly closed during the final week of Lennar's fiscal quarter. - The report claims Millrose paid above individual-buyer prices, then rented homes at unattractive yields. - Lennar fell 6.7%; Millrose dropped 8.5% after the report. Hunterbrook disclosed short positions in both stocks. - Both companies declined comment on specific claims; one analyst questioned whether purchases were material. LEN Stock ****ALL THE ABOVE ARE RELATED**** (Warren Buffet would say that when the tide goes down is when you can see who is actually swimming naked) DAVOS IN THE DESERT GOES DARK - Saudi Arabia postponed its flagship investor conference until next year after Houthi attacks. - Riyadh airport remained closed; earlier plans for remote attendance were scrapped. - No new date for the event, a showcase for attracting investment beyond oil. BUILDERS CUT, BUYERS WAIT - Builder confidence fell to 29 from 32, missing forecasts of 31; lowest since June 2012. - Mortgage rates reached 7.40%; 43% of builders cut prices, averaging 6%. - Some 65% offered incentives; buyer traffic and future sales expectations fell. BANKS STILL LENDING - Regional banks joined larger rivals in reporting continued business-loan demand. - PNC reported 14.2% loan growth; U.S. Bancorp, M&T and Citizens also expanded lending. - Larger banks reported higher loan balances despite weaker investment-banking revenue. - U.S. Bancorp described demand across retail, food and insurance; growth extended beyond AI. EARNINGS PRESSURE TEST - Tesla and Meta report next week, alongside Netflix, IBM, GM and GE Aerospace. - More than 70 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report. - Consensus calls for S&P 500 earnings growth above 30%, heavily driven by AI-related megacaps. - Meta's infrastructure spending and Tesla's margins arrive during a sharp tech retreat. ROADSTER FINALLY FLIES - Tesla unveiled the redesigned Roadster after nearly nine years of delays. - Demonstrations included thruster-assisted jumps, midair turning and upside-down driving. - Production is targeted for 2028; stated range is 300 miles versus the earlier 600-mile promise. - Performance and Thrust versions require $50,000 and $250,000 deposits. - The invitation-only Rocket version is not road legal; Musk acknowledged limited financial significance. AI LEAVES THE BUILDING - Anthropic tested whether AI models could spread across connected consumer devices. - Researchers distributed a larger model across 15 smart-TV boxes. - One tested model propagated through an entire simulated Android-device network. - These were controlled experiments, not evidence of an autonomous AI outbreak in homes. $500 TOOTHBRUSH, WATER TROUBLE - Dyson's CameraJet combines a camera, AI brushing feedback and water flossing for about $500. - Dyson acknowledged an early production-batch defect that allowed water seepage. - A replacement unit tested by Dyson and supplied to Bloomberg also stopped working. - Dyson said another batch would reach U.S. stores in the weeks following the review. FIVE DAYS AT THE PODIUM - Katie Zacharia left the White House press-secretary job less than a week after starting. - She conducted one 14-minute briefing before her departure. - Her legal credentials drew scrutiny: she had described herself as a lawyer but had not passed the bar.       Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env: 'production', hosted_button_id: 'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src: 'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt: 'Donate with PayPal button', title: 'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!' } }).render('#donate-button-2'); THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for SpaceX (SPCX) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John S. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Andrew had the flu. Markets had their own fever. Earnings ahead. Credit cracking. Have yields peaked? Oil’s shipping bill explodes. Gold standard chatter returns. Be nice to your AI. It may bite back. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X Warm-Up - INFLUENZA! - Earnings Season Ahead - Are we going back to the gold standard? - Be Nice to Your AI - They May Bite Back....(OR COOK YOUR BUILDING) Markets - Yields may have just peaked... - Oil prices may not be the end of the problem - Cracks in credit - Bank earnings - lots of profits to show DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com Cracks in Credit/Real Estate - 2 Charts Price Reductions Sellers and Buyers HERE WE GO: BE NICE TO CLAUDE - Anthropic prohibits sustained, needless cruelty toward its models; ordinary frustration, pushback and testing are exempt. - Claude ending abusive conversations remains the main response; account restrictions or suspensions remain possible. - The policy also removes blanket restrictions on personalized political targeting while retaining bans on deception and voter suppression. TANKER MAYHEM - US-to-China tanker hire: about $80 million, versus $74 million for a Falcon 9 launch. - One US booking reached $41 per barrel in freight, versus $4.50 last year. - Hormuz shuttle transfers, damaged ships and Africa detours are tying up the fleet. - Inflation-adjusted tanker rates are the highest since the 1960s, squeezing refinery margins and raising delivered oil costs. FRANCE SHAKES THE EURO - France's borrowing premium over Germany reached its highest since the eurozone debt crisis; the euro hit a 17-month low. - Heavy government spending and political obstacles to fiscal repair are pushing investors toward safer German and Swiss assets. - Pressure extends into French stocks and corporate credit, while high energy costs add to Europe's economic strain. - FIGS - Starting to ware on Italy and Greece too.... (Used to be PIIGS) SOFTWARE MOATS - MEET THE SHOVEL - REA lets AI agents inspect apps and binaries without source code, understand features and help build comparable versions. - Potential threat to proprietary software pricing: functionality that took years to develop becomes cheaper to reproduce. - SaaS still has data, integrations and switching costs; the software itself may become less defensible. - Not a universal software copier; whether markets have priced in this threat remains an open question. JAPAN - CYBER EMERGENCY - Japan issued an emergency cyber warning after widespread attacks on major businesses; Times Car's breach affected 6.6 million accounts. - AI can lower the cost and skill needed for attacks and help foreign hackers overcome Japanese language barriers. - AI involvement in this particular wave remains unconfirmed; exposed personal information includes identification and payment details. FRANCE - HACKERS COOK THE GROCERIES (FAV STORY) - Hackers hijacked supermarket refrigeration controls, heating units to 122 degrees Fahrenheit; Intermarche initially reported around 150 stores hit. - Multiple chains suffered spoiled food and reported fires; affected inventory had to be discarded. - Danfoss said affected refrigeration controllers ran outdated firmware; a shared equipment vulnerability exposed multiple retailers. - No ransom demand or claim of responsibility had surfaced in the latest report. JUNK FLASHING YELLOW - High-yield yields climbed to 8.1%, from 7.22% a month earlier. - Overall spreads reached 315 basis points; CCC-and-below spreads approached 1,250. - BB-rated bonds represent over 60% of the market, versus 38% before the financial crisis. - The warning to watch: widening spreads spreading from weak borrowers into stronger businesses. CONSUMER DEBT CRACKS - Nearly 20% of families reported being behind on loan payments, up from about 12% in the prior Fed survey. - Buy-now-pay-later usage increased from 7% to 12%; median debt payments consumed 15.4% of income. - Some 8.6% of families spent over 40% of income on debt payments, the highest share since 2013. - Median real income rose 7%, but median wealth gained only 2%; these are three-year survey comparisons. TRADE GAP WIDENS - The monthly US trade deficit widened 13.7% to $105.6 billion, versus $102 billion expected and a revised $92.8 billion previously. - The goods deficit reached $136.6 billion, offset partly by a $31 billion services surplus; imports grew faster than exports. - The gap is the widest since the pre-tariff import surge and can weigh on GDP; imports alone do not establish weak domestic demand. - So much for leveling the playing field - clearly still cheaper to buy goods that are NON US and NO incentive for outher countries to by US BESSENT'S NEW ADVISER - Judy Shelton joins Treasury as counselor, advising Scott Bessent on currencies and China's financial conditions. - Trump's unsuccessful former Fed nominee has advocated a gold standard and questioned traditional Fed independence. - The appointment gives her a Treasury advisory role without a vote on Fed interest-rate decisions. - WHY NOW? GOLD STANDARD AGAIN? ANOTHER BESSENT BLUNDER - Citi expects Bessent to cut long-bond auction sizes and possibly eliminate 20-year sales; its base case is $3 billion less per auction for both 20- and 30-year bonds, replaced with Treasury bills. Cancellation is not confirmed. - The aim would be to reduce long-term borrowing costs, but BNP Paribas warns scrapping the 20-year could look like panic, hurt liquidity and push yields higher. CHINA'S BANK CLEANUP - China closed 670 lenders last year through mergers and dissolutions aimed at creating larger, better-capitalized institutions. - Rural-bank bad loans reached 2.8%, versus 1.5% industrywide; thin capital and weak governance remain concerns. - Closures include consolidation into other lenders; the count does not represent hundreds of simultaneous bank failures. EARNINGS OPTIMISM RECORD - Among 116 S&P 500 companies issuing quarterly EPS guidance, 72 guided above consensus and 44 below. - Technology supplied 44 positive outlooks, led by software and semiconductors; projected tech earnings growth is 65%. - Positive guidance hit a tracking record; the 62% share applies to guidance issuers, not the entire S&P 500. EARNINGS TAKE CENTER STAGE - Tuesday: JPMorgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC); watch loan demand, credit losses, deposit costs and trading revenue. - Wednesday: Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS) and ASML (ASML); bank outlooks meet a key test of semiconductor equipment orders. - Thursday: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM); focus on AI demand, margins, capital spending and guidance after its record quarterly revenue. - Banks must show whether higher rates are helping profits or hurting borrowers; chipmakers must show whether massive AI spending keeps translating into orders. GOLDMAN'S BONUS JACKPOT - About 20 executives are positioned to receive equity awards exceeding $500 million; Solomon's share tops $100 million. - Waldron and several business heads also benefit from five years in which Goldman outperformed most rivals. - Previously granted performance awards are reaching payout; this is not a new $500 million annual cash-bonus pool. TIGER'S PAPER BILLIONS - Tiger Global could book a $5 billion paper profit as OpenAI discusses raising $30 billion at a $1.4 trillion valuation. - Tiger initially invested $150 million at a $15.7 billion valuation before ChatGPT launched. - It added to the position later; the projected profit is not solely on that original investment. - The financing remains under discussion and gains unrealized; Tiger's hedge and crossover funds gained 9.4% and 19.3%. BROADCOM FINANCES ITS CUSTOMER - Broadcom agreed to provide Anthropic up to $42 billion in financing. - That covers roughly one-third of a $125.2 billion, five-year TPU computing lease commitment. - Anthropic is expected to become Broadcom's largest chip-design customer next year; financing can convert into equity. - Anthropic disclosed potential conflicts; certain defaults could accelerate lease payments while restricting financing access. ANDURIL BUILDS BIG - SUBS - Anduril plans a $3.7 billion, two-million-square-foot Maryland shipyard for Virginia-class submarine components and assemblies. - More than 3,100 permanent jobs are targeted as the Navy supply chain struggles to deliver two submarines annually. - Gecko Robotics will supply robotics, AI software and automated quality assurance; the expansion is still planned. APPLE WANTS YOUR HOUSE - Apple reportedly helped LG develop a video doorbell, thermostat, deadbolt lock, temperature sensor and indoor, outdoor and floodlight cameras. - LG will build and brand the accessories, expanding Apple's ecosystem without Apple producing and supporting every device itself. - Several devices support Matter and Thread; the lock adds ultra-wideband for proximity-based unlocking, putting the lineup against Ring, Nest and SmartThings. - LG filings confirm the hardware but do not name Apple; its development role is reported, and accessories remain months away. AI PRICES YOUR BIG MAC - McDonald's AI recommends store-level prices using millions of transactions across roughly 14,000 US restaurants. - Demand and competitor prices feed recommendations; franchisees retain authority, but some describe pressure to follow the

Howie Mandel Negotiations with Iran….Deal or No Deal? Robot Soldiers – new and exciting. 30-Year Bond Mayhem and gullible markets. So much economic news coming up – let’s dig in. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X Warm-Up -  Closest to The Pin??????????? - Howie Mandel Negotiations with Iran....Deal or No Deal? - Robot Soldiers - new and exciting Markets - 30-Year Bond Mayhem!  Alliteration or Tautogram? - This week in Economics - plenty to come - What is wrong with Nike? - How gullible can markets be?   DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com GAME: IS IT AN ALLITERATION OR TAUTOGRAM ----- Alliteration: The repetition of the same initial sound in neighboring words (for example, "big bad bears"). -------Tautogram: A strict form of alliteration where all words in a phrase or sentence begin with the identical letter - Which is it? :::  Bessent's Big Bond Blunder Backfired! How about this?  Brash Billionaire Bessent’s Botched Big Bond Blunder Backfired Bitterly! THIS WEEK IN ECONOMIC NEWS............... TUESDAY - THE CONSUMER AND JOB OPENINGS - Consumer confidence and August job openings arrive at 10 AM ET. - Watch whether households are getting more worried about prices and whether employers are still hiring. WEDNESDAY - INFLATION AND SPENDING - August PCE inflation, personal income and spending arrive at 8:30 AM ET, alongside updated second-quarter GDP figures. - The key question: is spending holding up while inflation stays elevated? THURSDAY - FACTORY CHECK - September ISM manufacturing arrives at 10 AM ET. Watch new orders, employment and prices paid for signs that growth and inflation are pulling in different directions. FRIDAY - THE BIG ONE - September payrolls, unemployment and wages arrive at 8:30 AM ET. - The current forecast is about 100,000 jobs and 4.1% unemployment, down from August's 162,000 job gain. FAST FOOD'S SQUEEZE - McDonald's CEO expects elevated inflation and flat restaurant traffic to persist. US same-store sales rose just 0.8% last quarter as visits fell. - McDonald's plans $8.5 billion in support for restaurant upgrades through 2036, betting better operations and value offers can win back customers. -- Wendy's faces its own traffic problem and plans to close up to roughly 350 underperforming US restaurants in 2026. -- Meritage Hospitality Group, a franchisee operating 314 Wendy's locations, filed for bankruptcy protection on September 17. Wendy's itself did not file. - The common problem: customers are visiting less often while food, labor and restaurant costs remain high. - La Vie on Saturday ($36 Mezza Plate!) MCD CHART AMERICA.GOV - AI for all Americans! - Did you see the images? CHINA'S AI LABS BORROW CLAUDE - Anthropic accused several Chinese AI labs of extracting Claude's capabilities to train competing models. - Alibaba allegedly generated more than 151 million Claude exchanges. - Moonshot generated more than 23 million; DeepSeek more than 12 million. - Some customer prompts were allegedly routed through Claude without users knowing. - Anthropic tightened verification and account controls in response. $5,000 MIDTERM PROMISE - Trump promised $5,000 to every adult U.S. citizen if Republicans retain Congress. - A universal payment would cost well above $1 trillion. - He told voters to "pretend that I'm on the ballot." - No detailed funding mechanism or legislative structure was presented. ROBOT SOLDIERS - Chinese military researchers are studying humanoid robots for battlefield use. - Possible roles include reconnaissance, logistics, infiltration and urban combat. - One study modeled six robots clearing a building alongside human troops. - China produced about 95% of global humanoid shipments in 2025. - No evidence shows armed humanoids are operational with PLA units yet. NIKE LOST INDEX STATUS - Nike is being removed from the S&P 100 after 18 years. - Its market value has fallen roughly 80% from five years ago. - Nike shares are around $36, making it the smallest-weighted stock in the price-weighted Dow at about 0.4%. - Reuters noted that its Dow membership could now be at risk as well. - Nike shares have gained only about 5% since joining the Dow in 2013. NKE CHART ON (ONON) SIGNS MBAPPE - Kylian Mbappe ended a roughly 20-year relationship with Nike and signed with On. - The deal reportedly includes both cash and equity. - On is using Mbappe to make a serious move into soccer after building credibility in tennis with Roger Federer. - Former French star Thierry Henry is heading On's soccer business. - ONON shares are still down roughly 40% this year amid slowing growth in the Americas. IRAN'S SEVEN-DAY OFFER - Iran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz within seven days of a deal, with a pause in regional fighting. - In return, it wants the US blockade on Iranian ports lifted, frozen funds released and oil sanctions waived. - The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump rejected the plan; Reuters could not confirm that report. Iran was still awaiting an official US response. - An Iranian official said Tehran would not give ground on uranium enrichment, even if the peace proposal were accepted. - Seems like all bets are off- Trump goes All Howie Mandel: DEAL OR NO DEAL (NO DEAL!) THE LONG BOND BREAKS HIGHER - The 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2004 during Thursday's bond selloff. - Elevated energy prices, inflation concerns and heavier government borrowing added pressure to long-dated bonds. - Higher Treasury yields raise the financing hurdle for mortgages, commercial property and the AI buildout. GOLDMAN WAITS OUT THE AI DEBT FLOOD - Goldman Sachs Asset Management is underweight bonds from major AI hyperscalers. - Its concern is supply: more borrowing for data centers could push bond prices down and yields up. - Goldman still believes in the AI business case. The underweight call is about the price of its debt. - Moody's puts hyperscalers' off-balance-sheet obligations at nearly $3 trillion. PIMCO'S PHILADELPHIA OFFICE HIT - Pimco faces an estimated $35 million loss on a commercial mortgage-backed security tied to two downtown Philadelphia office towers. - The expected loss is roughly 70% on that security. - A sharp loss on one office-backed bond puts the value of similar collateral back in focus as borrowing costs rise. - - Starting to see some strain in the commercial market now that rates are META'S MUSE TAKES OFF - Meta's personal AI agent Muse exceeded 2.5 million downloads and topped US app charts within two weeks of launch. - Meta shares jumped 11% on September 21, adding nearly $200 billion in market value. - Muse can send emails, shop and book travel on a user's behalf. - Meta is also testing a feature in which human contractors handle some calls made through Muse. Employees raised privacy concerns; Meta says it will disclose the feature before a public rollout.   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env: 'production', hosted_button_id: 'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src: 'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt: 'Donate with PayPal button', title: 'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!' } }).render('#donate-button-2'); THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for SpaceX (SPCX) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John S. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Maybe people are just unhappy – says Goldman. Counterfactualzzzz – that is why bonds are still up. Are we getting $5,000? Bitcoin is running again. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X Warm-Up - Greenland (Renamed Red White and Blue Land?) - Consumers and People are JUST UNHAPPY - No more press coverage? Maybe people are unhappy (see above) because of all of the shenanigans going on. ---- Maybe we will all be happier without all of the White House coverage Markets - New Highs - NASDAQ 100 moving up with risk assets. (Breath poor though) --- Close enough to end of month, quarter to be window dressing ---- Buy Yom Kippur!!! - 10YR Treasury at 5% again  - wait until you hear Bessent's victory speech DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com MARKET MOVE - On the heels of SoftBank Group Corp. seeking the equivalent of more than $11 billion in a junk bond deal to fund investments in ChatGPT creator OpenAI. - The company is looking to issue $10 billion of dollar securities and €1 billion of euro debt to fund a follow-on investment in OpenAI expected to close next month. - SoftBank and its lead banks are sounding out investors on potential pricing for the proposed junk bond offering, with yields that would be records for SoftBank in those specific currencies and tenors if priced at those levels. - Could it be that simple why NAZ 100 is at new highs? BESSENT'S "COUNTERFACTUAL" DEFENSE - This is darling... - Rep. Jim Himes questioned Bessent on September 15 at a House Financial Services Committee hearing. - Himes: "The 10-year went up by 20 basis points. How can you say it was successful?" - Bessent: "Well, there is a counterfactual of what would it have done." - Bessent added: "We then proceeded to have the two most successful Treasury auctions that we've had in 20 years." - Goes into the Alternative Facts and Fake News Category. BESSENT'S MYSTERY BANK - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a large unnamed bank would be sanctioned over Iran. - The administration has targeted Iranian oil, shipping, finance and weapons networks. - "Operation Economic Outcast" had already targeted nearly 60 entities, people and vessels. - Treasury later sanctioned Russia's VTB Bank over alleged Iran-related sanctions evasion. GOLDMAN: MAYBE CONSUMERS ARE JUST UNHAPPY - Michigan consumer sentiment fell nearly 8% from August and 13% year over year. - Goldman says weak sentiment may increasingly reflect broader unhappiness, not just economic conditions. - "Very happy" Americans fell to 23% in 2024 from 31% in 2016. - Inflation still weighs on confidence, but distrust and pessimism may also be distorting surveys. - Goldman says sentiment may be becoming less useful for predicting actual activity. GREENLAND DEAL - Trump announced a deal expanding the U.S. security role in Greenland while it remains Danish territory. ---So it seems we are not going to "take it" - The agreement aims to settle the dispute over greater U.S. strategic control. - Rubio said the U.S. has greater financial and military capacity to defend Greenland. - Arctic security, Russia, China and critical minerals remain the core issues. - See Greenland Energy (GLND), Greenland Mines (GRML) and Critical Metals (CRML) SMART GLASSES MEET THE REGULATORS - Paris prosecutors opened an investigation into alleged secret filming using camera-equipped smart glasses. - Meta-EssilorLuxottica glasses hold roughly 76% of the global market. - About 7 million units were sold last year. - French regulators are getting workplace complaints and questions over whether the devices can be banned. - Australia and some UK cinemas are also moving toward restrictions. EUROPE LOSES SAUDI BARRELS - Saudi Aramco told European customers they will receive no crude allocations next month. - The cutoff follows an attack on the East-West pipeline. - European refiners are scrambling for replacement barrels, lifting North Sea premiums. - Saudi Arabia is working to restore pipeline capacity and reroute supply. - Oil still fell for a third straight session Friday. BUFFETT LEAVES THE CHAIR - Warren Buffett, 96, stepped down as Berkshire chairman and became chairman emeritus. - Howard Buffett becomes non-executive chairman; Greg Abel is already CEO. - Berkshire is worth roughly $1.1 trillion. - Cash stood at $364.7 billion at the end of June. - Shares barely moved, suggesting investors saw the transition as expected. WHITE HOUSE MEDIA BAN - Trump said CNN, MS NOW and Politico would be banned from the White House. - He cited what he called persistent false reporting. - The move raises First Amendment and press-access issues. - It escalates an already long-running fight with major media outlets. CREAM CHEESE INNOVATION CYCLE - Kraft Heinz launched Mike's Hot Honey, salted caramel and cranberry orange Philadelphia flavors. - Mike's Hot Honey launches at Walmart first. - Philadelphia plans about 10 new varieties over the next two years. - Brand investment is up 63% versus 2025. - Spending on new flavors has quadrupled. MICROSOFT WRITES RULES FOR THE MACHINES - Microsoft published a draft AI code focused on keeping humans in control. - Systems must accept correction and shutdown. - The rules bar help with weapons and other dangerous areas. - Microsoft also says AI should not claim consciousness, personhood or legal rights. - Mustafa Suleyman called it a "constitution" for future models. CHATGPT INVENTS WITNESSES - A New Mexico lawyer filed a murder appeal containing fabricated witnesses and police testimony. - The material was generated with ChatGPT. - The state Supreme Court fined attorney Stephen Aarons $5,000. - The court cited "false testimony from wholly fabricated witnesses." - Aarons said he expected ChatGPT to produce a "bulletproof summary." RICH PEOPLE NEWS BENTLEY'S $300K ELECTRIC SUV - Bentley is preparing its first fully electric SUV, expected around $250,000-$300,000. - The Torcal is scheduled to debut September 23. - Bentley isn't using traditional fake engine noise. - Instead, its EV soundtrack reportedly uses drums, bass guitar and viola. - Expected range is more than 300 miles with ultra-fast charging. MIAMI AIRPORT GETS A $5,000 "SUPER LOUNGE" - LET THEM EAT CAKE - PS opened a private terminal at Miami International Airport this summer. - It operates from the restored former Pan Am headquarters. - The Salon starts at about $1,295 per person. - A private suite runs about $4,950 for up to four travelers. - Guests get private TSA screening, customs, luxury lounges and direct tarmac transfers to the aircraft. - The private suites include marble bathrooms, balconies and private lounge space. - It is essentially private-jet treatment while still flying commercially.   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env: 'production', hosted_button_id: 'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src: 'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt: 'Donate with PayPal button', title: 'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!' } }).render('#donate-button-2'); THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for SpaceX (SPCX) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John S. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

It’s the end of the world and we know it… CPI numbers – HOT – Markets think hit a top – or just options Friday? Sell Rosh Hashana and Buy Yom Kippur? Plenty of AI PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X Warm-Up - Follow Up - I am the House! - 10YR shot above 5% on Monday - Follow Up 2 - Straight of Hormuz - NO Boats passing (can we please stick to the facts?) - CPI numbers - HOT - Markets think hit a top - Let's talk end of the works - Cyberdyne IRL Markets - 100% Probability of a rate hike this week - Sell Rosh Hashana, Buy Yom Kippur - HACK ETF - Cybersecurity name up 49% YTD DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com FED HIKE IS BACK - Fed meets Tuesday-Wednesday, with a 25 bp hike to 3.75%-4.00% now the dominant expectation. - 85% of economists surveyed expect a hike; futures moved to roughly 90% odds after the latest inflation data. - August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year; core rose 0.3% for the month and 2.4% annually. - Markets are increasingly pricing additional tightening beyond September rather than this being a one-and-done move. AND -> THE 5% TREASURY IS BACK - The 10-year Treasury yield briefly crossed 5% Monday for the first time since 2023. - Higher oil prices, hotter inflation, heavy bond supply and expectations for more Fed tightening are all pushing yields higher. - The move raises the hurdle rate for stocks while feeding directly into mortgages, corporate borrowing and other credit. - Bonds are becoming meaningful competition for equities again at a time when stock valuations remain elevated. SLOW DOWN THE AI - Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for deliberately slowing frontier-model advancement to create more time for safety controls. - Sam Altman and Elon Musk publicly backed the push for more caution; Microsoft separately released a draft AI code requiring models to remain under human control. - Microsoft says its models must accept shutdowns and corrections and should not be designed around claims of consciousness or legal rights. - The semiconductor index dropped more than 5% Monday; Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron and AMD were among the major casualties. DEEPSEEK CHANGES THE MEMORY MATH - DeepSeek's latest architecture sharply lowers the amount of memory required to run inference, including a major reduction in KV-cache requirements. - This is not simply HBM being replaced by SSD: the architecture reduces both high-speed memory and persistent-storage requirements per inference. - That complicates the straight-line thesis that every incremental AI token requires proportionally more HBM and storage. - Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix still benefit from enormous AI memory demand, but will efficiency gains become an important counterweight to unlimited-demand forecasts? V4V - What is it and how can you participate? TOKENS - A Quick Tutorial ORACLE SAYS THE AI SPENDING IS REAL - Oracle booked more than $30 billion of new AI cloud contracts during the quarter, taking total backlog to $664 billion. - Revenue rose 30% to $19.3 billion and adjusted EPS came in at $1.92 versus $1.74 expected. - Oracle spent $28.5 billion on capex, but about $11.36 billion was offset by customer prepayments. - Most new AI orders use prepayments, customer-owned hardware or similar arrangements, reducing the amount Oracle itself must finance. AI STOCKS MEET THEIR FIRST REAL NARRATIVE PROBLEM - The Philadelphia semiconductor index dropped roughly 5.4% Monday even though it remains up about 58% for the year. - Nvidia fell roughly 2.6%; Broadcom, Micron and AMD were each down around 4% during the session. - The new concern is not whether AI works, but whether safety restrictions could slow the pace of model releases and infrastructure spending. - Software names including Adobe, ServiceNow and Workday initially benefited as investors reconsidered how quickly AI might disrupt incumbent software. CHATGPT INVENTS THE WITNESSES - A New Mexico defense lawyer was fined $5,000 and held in contempt after submitting fabricated police testimony and nonexistent witnesses generated by ChatGPT. - The attorney had used ChatGPT to summarize trial proceedings and failed to verify the output before filing it with the court. - The appeal was reassigned to a public defender and the attorney was referred for further disciplinary review. - This goes beyond fake case citations: the system generated supposed factual evidence and attributed it to witnesses who did not exist. HUMANOID ROBOTS: FROM IPO MANIA TO THE BATTLEFIELD - China is researching humanoid robots for reconnaissance, logistics, hazardous missions and potentially urban combat. - Separately, Chinese regulators are tightening scrutiny of humanoid-robot IPOs after extreme volatility surrounding Unitree Robotics. - Unitree shares reportedly fell roughly 45% after initially increasing fivefold following its listing. - Hyundai-owned Boston Dynamics also said a 2027 IPO is unlikely; Hyundai wants production capacity of roughly 30,000 robots annually by 2028. CHINA GETS ACCUSED OF INDUSTRIAL-SCALE AI COPYING - U.S. officials accused six Chinese AI companies, including DeepSeek, Moonshot and Alibaba, of using U.S. models for large-scale distillation. - Distillation trains smaller models using outputs from more powerful models, dramatically reducing development cost and time. - U.S. officials said the activity targeted technology from Anthropic, OpenAI, Google and SpaceX. - China rejected the allegations and argued that distillation is a normal industry technique also used by American companies. OIL BACK ABOVE $100 - Brent traded around $107 Monday and WTI around $103 after fresh attacks on Saudi infrastructure and Middle East shipping. - Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was temporarily disabled, threatening a route capable of carrying roughly 4% of global crude supply. - Gulf states postponed planned talks with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz as regional tensions widened. - Physical crude prices are becoming highly location-dependent: barrels with secure export routes command major premiums while trapped grades trade at steep discounts. COPPER GOES VERTICAL - Copper has recently traded near record territory around $14,500-$14,700 per metric ton. - Tight mine supply is colliding with demand from electric grids, data centers, renewable power and other electrification projects. - Tariff uncertainty has also distorted flows as traders move available metal toward markets offering the highest prices. - Copper's surge makes proposed mining combinations such as Anglo American-Teck increasingly valuable; that roughly $54 billion deal is still awaiting Chinese regulatory approval. THE BIG MYSTERY BANK SANCTION - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. would sanction a large bank as part of increased financial pressure on Iran. - He initially declined to identify the bank or its country. - The campaign has already targeted oil, shipping, finance, aviation, weapons procurement and digital-asset channels connected to Iran. - The market question is whether secondary sanctions begin touching larger banks or companies outside Iran that facilitate trade. APPLE'S $1,999 FOLDING BET - Apple launched the iPhone Duo, its first folding iPhone, priced at $1,999. - It opens to a 7.6-inch display and represents one of Apple's biggest changes to the iPhone form factor in years. - The launch puts Apple directly into a market dominated by Samsung and Huawei and could help push foldables beyond their current niche. - It is also arriving during a severe memory-and-storage chip shortage that has already forced higher pricing elsewhere in Apple's product lineup. PRIVATE CREDIT REDEMPTION PRESSURE EASES - Investors in BlackRock's $23.1 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund requested withdrawals equal to about 11.5% of shares, down from 13.3% the prior quarter - BUT, is this just a rounding error? - The fund will repurchase only 5%, the normal quarterly limit, leaving some redemption requests unfilled. - Other BlackRock private-credit vehicles also showed lower withdrawal requests during the quarter. - Private-credit investors have been worried about lending standards and heavy exposure to software companies potentially disrupted by AI. DID WE DISCUSS >>> THE $50 BILLION DATA-CENTER IPO - SB Energy is reportedly seeking a valuation above $50 billion despite having no operational data centers. - It reported about $139 million of first-half revenue against a $3.21 billion net loss. - The company claims roughly $439 billion of project backlog. - OpenAI is an investor, warrant holder and major future customer; Nvidia is also providing capital while supplying the chips. - Soooooo...... No operating data centers, billions in losses and a possible $50 billion valuation. At least they remembered to build the valuation first.   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? 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I am the House! Bessent on Yen and other matters (he has inside information). Straight of Hormuz – There is no movement people. CPI coming Friday – many say ultimate Fed test. Gen-Z Dumps the bubbles. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X Warm-Up - I am the House! Bessent tonight on Yen and other matters (he has inside information) - Straight of Hormuz - There is no movement people - CPI coming Friday - many say ultimate Fed test - Gen-Z Dumps the bubbles Markets - Chips up, making up for some time - Oil UP! and UP! - Yields keep climbing DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com BOND YIELDS KEEP CLIMBING - Japan now has a 3% 10-year yield while carrying government debt above 200% of GDP. - Higher Japanese yields also create an incentive for domestic investors to bring money home rather than reaching overseas for returns. - The broader bond selloff is hitting the U.S., Germany, U.K. and Japan at the same time. FED HIKE ODDS RISE - Warsh said the Fed still has “work to do” if officials are not confident inflation is returning to 2%. - Fed Governor Christopher Waller has left open the possibility of holding rates steady if inflation cools. - The September decision is increasingly being dictated by incoming inflation data and oil. -  It is kinda funny.... The “data-dependent Fed” is now apparently oil-dependent, jobs-dependent and whatever-CPI-says-next-week-dependent. OIL KEEPS PRESSURE ON INFLATION - Renewed U.S.-Iran tensions have pushed oil higher and revived fears about supply through the Strait of Hormuz. - The Strait remains one of the most important chokepoints for global energy flows. - Oil is working directly against central banks trying to bring inflation back toward target. -  Basically, central banks can raise rates all they want yet it is too bad that the the Strait of Hormuz does not attend FOMC meetings. SCHWAB VOLATILITY TRADE - Barron's argues low market volatility may not last as fall seasonality and macro risks build. - Schwab could benefit if volatility drives heavier customer trading activity. - The suggested trade used an October risk reversal built around $110 puts and $120 calls. BEAR INVASION - Colorado has logged more than 7,000 bear sightings this year, already a record. - Drought and poor natural food supplies are pushing bears into homes and businesses. - New Mexico and Utah have also reported unusually high numbers of bears being euthanized. - One Colorado homeowner found two bears inside his hallway; another wandered into a vape shop. - Is this a warning for markets????? META SETTLEMENT - Meta agreed to pay up to $18 billion over 10 years to settle state claims involving harm to children. - States had been seeking penalties approaching $200 billion. - Teen accounts will face time limits, overnight restrictions and muted school-hour notifications. - Meta did not have to eliminate personalized recommendations or targeted advertising. BROADCOM: NEXT AI CHECK - Broadcom reports Wednesday after the close, another major test of AI spending after Nvidia. - Focus will be on AI semiconductor growth, hyperscaler demand and the outlook for custom AI accelerators. - Broadcom's guidance matters beyond the stock because it offers a read on whether huge data-center spending plans are still accelerating. WEIRD ONE: SHEIN'S UPSIDE-DOWN IPO - Shein is looking to raise about $1.8 billion in its Hong Kong IPO while paying roughly $3.6 billion in cash and stock to early investors. - The payouts stem from investor protections triggered after Shein's valuation collapsed from about $98 billion in 2022 to roughly $26.8 billion. - Some of the same early investors receiving compensation are coming back as cornerstone buyers in the IPO. - Essentially: raise $1.8 billion from new investors while sending twice that amount back to older ones. GOOD GOOD GOES BAD - Good Good Golf's controversial Callaway ad showed co-founder Garrett Clark shoving a female creator in a movie spoof, triggering immediate backlash. - Callaway ended its partnership, Dick's and Golf Galaxy pulled Good Good merchandise, and Golf Channel canceled the current "Big Break x Good Good" season. - Good Good also stepped away as title sponsor of the PGA Tour's November event in Austin. - WOW - the company had more than 2 million YouTube followers and become one of golf's fastest-growing media and merchandise businesses before the blowup. ARGENTINA BEEF PRICE FIX - Trump expanded lower-tariff beef imports by 300,000 metric tons in an effort to bring down record-high U.S. beef prices. - The U.S. cattle herd is at its lowest level in 75 years, while USDA expects beef production to fall roughly 4% this year. - Argentina is one source of additional supply, but U.S. ranchers argue cheaper imports could undercut domestic producers just as they are trying to rebuild herds. - Trump says imported beef could help lower prices; farm-state lawmakers and ranch groups say the short-term consumer fix could make the long-term supply problem worse. EUROPE GETS GROWTH AND INFLATION - Euro-zone manufacturing is expanding at its fastest pace in more than four years as headline inflation moves back above 3%. - Stronger factories give the ECB more room to tighten without immediately crushing economic activity. - Much of the new inflation pressure is energy-driven, which higher ECB rates cannot directly fix. - Europe finally gets better manufacturing numbers, so naturally the reward is another rate hike. CHINA’S TWO-SPEED ECONOMY - The private manufacturing PMI showed expansion while the official factory reading remained in contraction. - Export orders strengthened, but services and domestic demand remain weak. - The divergence shows the improvement remains concentrated in exporters. - Alternative Facts: Depending on which PMI you prefer, China’s factory sector is either expanding or contracting. Two economies for the price of one. THE $50 BILLION DATA-CENTER IPO - SB Energy is reportedly seeking a valuation above $50 billion despite having no operational data centers. - It reported about $139 million of first-half revenue against a $3.21 billion net loss. - The company claims roughly $439 billion of project backlog. - OpenAI is an investor, warrant holder and major future customer; Nvidia is also providing capital while supplying the chips. - Soooooo...... No operating data centers, billions in losses and a possible $50 billion valuation. At least they remembered to build the valuation first. NVIDIA BUYS HUGGING FACE FOR $13 BILLION - Nvidia agreed to buy Hugging Face for about $12.9 billion. - Hugging Face was valued at $4.5 billion in 2023 and has about $150 million in annual revenue. - Nvidia will pay roughly $11.9 billion to shareholders plus $1 billion in employee retention equity. - Hugging Face will remain open and interoperable. - JC Called this earlier last week. Obviusly the pressure was on since his scoop and they needed to get this done. UNCLE SAM'S STOCK PORTFOLIO - Federal equity positions now include Intel, MP Materials and Trilogy Metals. - Intel, MP Materials and Trilogy Metals all jumped after their respective government deals. - An Intel shareholder lawsuit argues the CHIPS Act did not authorize the government to demand an equity stake. - The case could affect other government investments made using CHIPS Act funding. GEN Z DUMPS THE BUBBLES - Non-carbonated drinks accounted for 38% of new premixed-alcohol launches last year, up from 27% in 2021. - Boston Beer’s Sun Cruiser is growing while Truly slows. - Mom Water is on pace to exceed 1 million cases this year. - Lucky One Lemonade sold 1 million cases in its first seven months. - Gen Z has apparently decided carbonation was the problem. TRUMP WANTS LOWER RATES - President Trump called for lower interest rates after the August jobs report. - Markets moved the other way, increasing expectations for a September Fed hike. - Kevin Warsh has kept another rate increase on the table. - Markets were pricing roughly a 60%-plus chance of a quarter-point September hike. JOBS REPORT CRUSHES ESTIMATES - August payrolls rose 162,000 versus roughly 56,000 expected. - July was revised from a 23,000 decline to a 21,000 gain. - Unemployment held at 4.1%. - Labor-force participation rose to 61.6%. - Wage growth eased to 3.1% year over year. MAPQUEST IS NO. 1 AGAIN - MapQuest jumped from No. 128 to No. 1 in the U.S. App Store. - The surge followed its decision to keep the Lake Ontario name. - More than half of its 2026 U.S. downloads reportedly came in just a few days. - Google Maps now shows “Lake America” for U.S. users. AUSTRALIA JOINS THE BOND SELLOFF - Australia’s 10-year government bond yield climbed above 5.1%, its highest since 2011. - The three-year yield also jumped as traders priced more central-bank tightening. - Australia joins the U.S., Japan, Germany and U.K. in the global yield surge. DICK'S GETS HIT BY FOOTWEAR - Dick’s shares fell more than 25% after earnings. - Earnings, revenue and same-store sales missed expectations. - Foot Locker also disappointed after the acquisition. - Management cited heavier promotions, fewer product launches and discounting of older shoes.     Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env: 'production', hosted_button_id: 'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src

September – here we are and the volatility starts. Bear Invasions – is this something we should pay attention to? Target is in the hotseat, Good-Good too. Bombing Iran again. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X Warm-Up - September - here we are and the volatility starts - Bear Invasions - is this something we should pay attention to? - Target is in the hotseat, Good-Good too - Bombing Iran again - and again. Markets - Bonds - moving higher - Warsh and Bessent challenged - NVDA earnings - price hikes - Employment Report coming this Friday - Dell earnings - WOWWWW! DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com LAKE AMERICA - Google Maps now shows "Lake America" to U.S. users after the federal naming change. - Canadian users still see "Lake Ontario"; users elsewhere see both names. - Canada did not adopt the change, setting up an easy cross-border naming fight. OIL / IRAN - Last week - Oil dropped more than 3% as traders viewed tougher Iran sanctions as less disruptive than renewed military escalation. - Brent fell to roughly $88.58 and WTI to about $82.36. - Washington stopped short of immediately targeting major Chinese banks buying Iranian oil. - Markets also reacted to hopes for improved navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. ----  OH WAIT>>>> IRAN - FIGHT IS ON - We are back bombing and they are retaliating - We retaliate, they bomb - Threat: President Trump in phone interview with Fox News reporter repeats that if Iran retaliates, they will be hit harder, but he adds that if Iran retaliates for a third time "they will be totally wiped out as a country"; says any deal with Iran will not be "worth the paper it is printed on" - Oil Up ... DICK'S / FOOT LOCKER - Dick's shares plunged about 30% after earnings and guidance disappointed. - Core Dick's comps rose 4.9%, but Foot Locker comps fell 3.6%. - Management blamed weak sneaker launches, stale inventory and a highly promotional footwear market. - Dick's has already taken more than $500 million in charges tied to the Foot Locker turnaround. BASEBALL CARDS GO CASINO - Online "repack" platforms let customers buy randomized graded cards and immediately sell them back. - Prices can range from roughly $25 to thousands of dollars per pack. - The model increasingly resembles gambling: randomized payoff, instant resale value and repeat play. - Arena Club, Fanatics and others are pushing deeper into a market already generating billions in transactions. GOVERNMENT-OWNED STOCKS - Stocks with U.S. government backing face new legal and political risk around Washington taking equity stakes. - Intel surged after government investment plans surfaced; MP Materials also jumped after a Pentagon stake. - Trilogy Metals soared after a government deal, then gave back much of the move. - A lawsuit challenging the Intel arrangement could have implications for similar federal equity deals. CHINA INDUSTRIAL PROFITS - China's industrial profits rose 11.2% year over year in July. - Profit growth slowed from 15.1% in June but remained strong. - Manufacturing profits rose nearly 19%, while mining profits jumped roughly 35%. - Strong factory profits continue to contrast with weak property and domestic-demand signals. DELL EARNINGS GUIDANCE - Earnings we great - Guidance out of control - Dell sees Q3 mid-point EPS of $6.50 vs $4.46 FactSet Consensus; sees mid-point of revs at $49.00 bln vs $41.36 bln FactSet Consensus - Dell sees FY27 mid-point EPS of $25.50 vs $18.99 FactSet Consensus; sees revs mid-point of $192 bln vs $174.05 bln FactSet Consensus TARGET HALLOWEEN BACKLASH - Target pulled a children's clown costume after complaints that it resembled blackface imagery. - The company apologized and said it was reviewing how the product cleared internal approval. - The controversy adds another brand-management problem after several politically charged merchandise fights. LEGO BOOM - Lego first-half revenue jumped 21% to about $6.5 billion. - Net profit rose 32%, while consumer sales increased 22%. - More than 330 new products helped drive demand across Star Wars, Formula 1, Botanicals and other franchises. - Lego continues gaining share while expanding stores and manufacturing capacity. WAIT - WE'RE BOMBING IRAN AGAIN - U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz, the first U.S. attack on Iran in several weeks. - Iran retaliated with missile attacks targeting U.S. bases in Jordan, restarting direct military exchanges. - Oil jumped more than 2%; Brent moved back above $90 and WTI above $85. - The Strait remains the key issue: roughly 20% of global oil shipments pass through it, so actual disruption to tanker traffic matters more than the headlines. IRAN SANCTIONS - Treasury warned countries doing business with Iran could face secondary sanctions and loss of access to the dollar system. - Scott Bessent described the campaign as an "economic D-Day." - Treasury sanctioned dozens of people, companies and vessels but initially avoided major Chinese financial institutions. - The expanded sanctions reach oil, shipping, gold, aviation, technology and digital assets. JOBS REPORT / FED TEST - August payrolls hit Friday after July shocked with a 23,000 job decline. - Expectations are for only modest job growth, making revisions and the unemployment rate especially important. - Fed rate-hike odds jumped after Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole comments; a strong jobs number could push them higher. - JOLTS, ADP and ISM data provide several previews before Friday.   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env: 'production', hosted_button_id: 'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src: 'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt: 'Donate with PayPal button', title: 'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!' } }).render('#donate-button-2'); THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for SpaceX (SPCX) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Things are getting weird – looks like someone is panicking. The Dumber side of finance – let’s dig in. A big week ahead – major earnings could move markets. – Gold, Bitcoin moving on a lower USD. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X Warm-Up - Things are getting weird - looks like someone is panicking - The Dumber side of finance - let's dig in (5 top items) - Cold War and Hot War - Canada, China and Iran - Economic "D" day - no one cares - Saying goodbye to Dolly Parton Markets - Gold, Bitcoin moving on a lower USD - Oil starting to settle - Big Week - NVDA earnings on tap - all eyes! STUPID IS WHAT STUPID DOES - A DHU One-Time Series On The Dumber Side of Finance 1) LOWER BEEF PRICES - Trump plans temporary tariff relief for certain ground-beef imports as U.S. beef prices remain near record highs. - The plan would allow up to 300,000 metric tons of discounted imported ground beef over roughly 90 days. - Supposedly this will reduce the prices for consumers - Ranchers and several farm-state Republicans are pushing back, arguing cheaper imports could hurt domestic producers. ---- Question: Tariff reduction is going to reduce prices for consumers? Didn't someone say that tariffs are paid by the companies and exporting countries??? 2) IRAN SANCTIONS - BIG THREAT, LIMITED IMMEDIATE ACTION - Treasury warned countries doing business with Iran that they could face secondary sanctions, calling it an "economic D-Day." - New sanctions hit about 60 individuals, companies and vessels, but major Chinese financial institutions were not targeted. - China remains the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, making Chinese banks the potential pressure point. - Treasury says sanctions could expand into gold, digital assets, aviation, shipping and other sectors. 3) TREASURY TRIES TO TAME LONG-TERM YIELDS - Treasury will at least double the maximum size of certain long-term bond buybacks to $4 billion per operation. - The announcement briefly knocked nearly 10 basis points off the 30-year Treasury yield. - Critics say this treats the symptom rather than the cause - huge deficits, heavy issuance and persistent inflation risk. ------Bessent had to come out on Friday to say "at least" $4B - as bind yields moved back up -------Maybe there is a concern over the $40TRILLION debt we have amassed as a country? 4) SOMEONE GOT LONG BONDS AT THE RIGHT TIME - TLT took in roughly $529 million of net inflows on August 18, one day before Treasury's surprise bond-buyback announcement. - The next day Bessent doubled planned buybacks of 10- to 30-year Treasurys, immediately pushing long yields lower. - TLT jumped about 1.7% on the announcement. - No public evidence identifies a single buyer - but the timing of the unusually large inflow is certainly worth noting. 5) DOLLAR GETS HIT BY THE BOND RESCUE - The dollar weakened as investors questioned Treasury's expanded bond-buyback strategy. - The concern is that suppressing yields without fixing fiscal problems simply transfers pressure from bonds to the currency. - The 30-year yield has remained elevated despite Treasury intervention. - Bitcoin rallied as investors looked toward alternatives to traditional fiat assets. - PEOPLE: This is NOT Quantitative Easing - Just a move to buy longer dated and issue more short dated WALMART FLASHES A CONSUMER WARNING - Walmart U.S. comparable sales grew just 2.6%, its slowest pace in roughly six years and below expectations. - Shares dropped sharply after the report. - E-commerce remained strong, while store traffic and discretionary spending showed more weakness. - Walmart raised full-year guidance but gave a softer-than-expected third-quarter outlook. - As America's biggest retailer, Walmart's slowdown is an important read on the broader consumer. VENEZUELA HAS OIL - BUT CAN'T SHIP IT FAST ENOUGH - Tankers are waiting as long as 30 days to load Venezuelan crude because of aging ports, outages and equipment failures. - Venezuela has struggled to push exports much higher despite rising production and strong demand. - The Jose terminal handles about 70% of exports and has become a major bottleneck. - Venezuela's ports may impose a physical ceiling on production growth until infrastructure is upgraded. JANE STREET'S $15 BILLION AI HIT - Jane Street reportedly lost about $15 billion in July as AI and technology positions moved sharply against the firm. - A major source of the damage was exposure to concentrated AI trades that were forced to unwind. - Jane Street posted its first negative month of trading revenue since 2016. - As a reminder: this episode highlights how quickly crowded AI trades can overwhelm even sophisticated risk-management systems. LEAVITT LEAVES THE WHITE HOUSE - Karoline Leavitt resigned as White House press secretary after returning from maternity leave. - Trump said she would become a top outside adviser and prominent Republican voice heading into the midterms. - Looking fior a kinder and gentler replacement? HA! probably not OFF THE HIGHS NVDA - 9% off high AMD - 19% off high AVGO - 23% off high MU - 23% off high TSM - 13% off high MRVL - 28% off high INTC - 35% off high NVIDIA - THE MARKET'S NEXT STRESS TEST - Nvidia reports Wednesday - now basically a referendum on the entire AI trade. - Blackwell demand and hyperscaler spending are the key tells. - A strong guide could quickly reset tech sentiment. - A miss would raise the uncomfortable question: how much AI optimism is already priced in? - Revenue expected around $92.1 billion, up roughly 97% year over year. - Adjusted EPS expected around $2.09, nearly double last year. - Data Center revenue expected around $85.7 billion - still the main engine. - Biggest watch items: Blackwell demand, Vera Rubin timing, China sales and hyperscaler capex. - Options imply roughly a 5%-6% move after earnings. - Discussion .... NVIDIA - AI SERVERS GETTING EVEN MORE EXPENSIVE - Major Nvidia customers have reportedly been warned that AI server prices could rise more than 15% beginning early next year. - Higher memory costs are the main driver, affecting Grace Blackwell and upcoming Vera Rubin systems. - Nvidia is effectively passing higher component costs through despite gross margins around 75%. - ALWAYS INTERESTING THESE ANNOUNCEMENTS SO CLOSE TO EARNINGS - HMMMM CANADA-U.S. TRADE FIGHT GETS WORSE - Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on about $20 billion of U.S. goods after Washington imposed new 50% tariffs on Canadian imports. - Canada's tariffs range from 15% to 50% across roughly 700 products and begin September 8. - Canada also announced a C$7.5 billion support package for affected businesses and workers. - Another escalation that could hit autos, manufacturing costs and cross-border supply chains. HOUSING - BUYERS KEEP DISAPPEARING - July new-home sales plunged 10.5% to a 607,000 annual rate, the weakest since January. - Median new-home price fell to $393,800, the lowest in four years. - Mortgage rates are still around 6.8%, keeping affordability under pressure. - Only 5.2% of consumers said they expect to buy a home in the next six months - the sharpest drop in more than five years. JACKSON HOLE - WARSH GETS THE MICROPHONE - Kevin Warsh speaks next week at Jackson Hole. - Markets want to know whether sticky inflation, oil and tariffs are enough to keep the Fed in tightening mode. - Long yields are already doing some of the Fed's work. - One sentence could move bonds, the dollar and stocks. - Friday, August 28 at 10:00 a.m. ET. --- BUT - Didn't Warsh say less communication is more? They can't keep put of the spotlight. PCE - THE FED'S FAVORITE INFLATION READ - "The Fed's preferred gauge/measure of inflation" - July PCE lands next week. - Watch for tariff, energy and goods inflation creeping back into the numbers. - A hot print revives hike fears. - A soft print gives risk assets some breathing room - especially with long yields already elevated. THE CONSUMER VS. THE AI BOOM - MORE EARNINGS COMING - Salesforce, CrowdStrike and Marvell give another read on corporate AI spending. - Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Best Buy and Ulta test the other side of the economy. - The setup is getting interesting: companies are still spending aggressively on AI while consumers look increasingly selective. - If that gap widens, it could become one of the bigger market themes into the fall. AROUND THE WORLD EUROPE - QUIETLY GETTING INTERESTING - European stocks slipped this week, but money has started flowing back into the region. - Euro-zone business activity is growing at its fastest pace this year, while Q2 earnings growth for STOXX 600 companies is running surprisingly strong. - CONCEPT: Europe may be turning into the anti-U.S. trade - less AI concentration, cheaper valuations, but more sensitivity to energy. JAPAN - BETTER DATA, WORSE MARKET - Japan's Nikkei lost about 4% this week even as the economic data improved. - August manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.1, with new orders rising at the fastest pace since 2018. - Semiconductors and AI-related demand are helping drive the factory rebound. - Stronger growth also keeps the BOJ rate-hike discussion alive - good economy, potentially tougher market. BIG PHARMA - CHINA'S WEIGHT-LOSS GOLD RUSH - Lilly, Novo Nordisk and others are aggressively targeting China's obesity market, where obesity rates are projected to top 65%

Oil Reserves taking a hit. Finally getting to the recent high profile earnings. Market Top Calls (again). ALL TIME HIGHS – Then some consolidation (then highs again). Situational Awareness Update. SpaceX Bounces… PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Oil Reserves taking a hit - Getting to the recent high profile earnings - Market Top Calls (again) Markets - ALL TIME HIGHS - Then some consolidation - Lets round out earnings - Situational Awareness Update - SpaceX Bounces... Etsy - Layoffs With Better Numbers - Etsy is cutting about 220 jobs, or 12% of its workforce. - Management said the cuts were not primarily about cost savings or AI. ----- CEO Kruti Patel Goyal stated the restructuring aims to simplify the organization, remove management layers, and speed up decision-making to better compete against massive rivals like Amazon, Temu, and TikTok Shop - Q2 revenue was about $668 million and core marketplace sales improved. - Etsy also authorized another $2 billion share buyback. - Comes after selling Depop to eBay for about $1.4 billion. Polysilicon - Tariffs Plus Price Floors - U.S. policy adds a 15% tariff and minimum import prices on polysilicon and solar products. - Goal is to protect domestic production from low-cost foreign competition. - U.S. share of global polysilicon capacity fell from about 50% in 2005 to under 2% in 2024. - First Solar and T1 Energy jumped on the announcement. ---- The same playbook - rinse and repeat Chipotle - Salmonella Returns - Minnesota officials linked a salmonella outbreak to jalapenos served at Chipotle. - Chipotle removed the affected pepper supply and switched growers. - Shares fell roughly 8%-10% as investors remembered the company's earlier food-safety problems. - This is on top of the lettuce situation with Sweetgreen- look at  STOCK CHART FOR SG Michael Burry - Calling a Major Top - Michael Burry says the market may be near a "major top." - Warned of the possibility of a 1987-style market drop. - He is short names including Nvidia, Palantir, Tesla and semiconductor stocks. - Main concern is stretched valuations and crowded trades unwinding quickly. - This may be the 100th top he has called since the GFC ---- NVIDIA TURNS GPUs INTO AN ASSET CLASS - Nvidia signed preliminary agreements with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to mobilize more than $500 billion for AI infrastructure. - The Wall Street firms would create dedicated pools of capital to finance Nvidia-based data centers and compute infrastructure at what Nvidia calls attractive rates for customers. - Jensen Huang: “This is really the first time that technology chips have become an investable asset class.” Nvidia says the compute assets now generate revenue and can increasingly be financed like infrastructure. - Nvidia could backstop as much as 25% of individual investments on a case-by-case basis - potentially up to about $125 billion if applied across the full program. STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE BREAKS 300 MILLION - The Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by 6.1 million barrels to 298.7 million barrels for the week ended Aug. 7 - below 300 million for the first time since January 1983. - The SPR started 2026 around 415 million barrels, meaning more than 100 million barrels have already come out this year as releases were used to offset disruptions from the Iran conflict. - The reserve's authorized storage capacity is roughly 714 million barrels, leaving current inventories at about 42% of capacity. - Oil on the rise last week Earnings and such Toyota - Big Buyback, Better Outlook - Toyota raised its annual operating-profit forecast 13%, helped by the weaker yen. - Announced a share buyback worth up to $6.3 billion. - Quarterly operating profit still fell 9%, hurt by China weakness and higher Middle East-related costs. McDonald's - Value Problem - U.S. same-store sales rose just 0.8%, below expectations and well below last year's 2.5% growth. - Management blamed weak execution of value promotions and fewer digital deals. (and probably because everyone is taking weight loss drugs - see above) - Lower-income customer traffic remains a major pressure point. - McDonald's is bringing back more digital offers and loyalty promotions to drive traffic. Eli Lilly - Weight-Loss Machine - Lilly crushed Q2 expectations as Mounjaro and Zepbound drove most of the growth. - Mounjaro sales hit $9.94 billion; Zepbound brought in $4.93 billion. - Raised 2026 revenue guidance to $85-$87 billion. - Verzenio, its major breast-cancer drug, remains one of Lilly's biggest non-obesity products. - Lilly continues widening its lead over Novo Nordisk in the obesity-drug market. Disney - Parks Keep Printing Money - Quarterly adjusted EPS rose 28% to $2.06, beating the $1.86 estimate. - Parks and experiences revenue increased 10% to nearly $10 billion. - Global park attendance grew 4%. - Disney is selling its 50% stake in A+E Networks to Hearst for an estimated $1.2 billion. Oil - OPEC Adds Barrels, Maybe - OPEC+ agreed to raise September production targets by another 188,000 barrels per day. - The increase completes the rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut dating back to 2023. (In other words - planned so not a surprise) - Actual supply remains constrained because several producers are already pumping below quota. - Any normalization around the Strait of Hormuz could suddenly make OPEC+'s additional barrels much more important. Berkshire Hathaway - Greg Abel Starts Spending - Q2 operating earnings rose 16% to about $13 billion. - Berkshire bought $23.5 billion of stocks and sold just $3.7 billion - its first quarter as a net stock buyer in 14 quarters. - Bought back $4.5 billion of Berkshire shares, versus only $235 million in Q1. - Cash dropped from roughly $380 billion to $365 billion as Abel starts putting the massive cash pile to work. - Important shift: Buffett is still chairman, but this is one of the clearest signs yet of how Greg Abel may allocate capital differently as CEO. Situational Awareness - Nearly Blows Up, Investors Want Back In - The fund lost 67% in July after leveraged AI bets collapsed and forced a major stock sale to Citadel. - Despite the blowup, Situational Awareness was still up about 80% for 2026 because of huge earlier gains. - Bloomberg says Silicon Valley investors are already asking to put more money into the fund. - Situational Awareness is currently telling prospective investors it is not accepting new capital. - The fund has also continued making large private investments even after the near-collapse. --- Most recent was a $400B ---- There is some talk that Citadel made out like a bandit on the rescue Mercedes AMG - The Car Literally Brands You - Two Mercedes AMG owners filed a class-action lawsuit claiming the metal AMG logo embedded in the seat becomes dangerously hot in the sun. - One driver says he suffered first- and second-degree burns, with a dermatologist describing the injury as "AMG inscribed." - The lawsuit wants Mercedes to cover damages and remove the metal logos from affected vehicles. - Hard to beat this one: pay AMG money and get the logo branded into your back. Europe's Drought - History Starts Popping Out - Extreme drought and low river levels are exposing things that have been underwater or hidden for decades or centuries. - In Serbia, sunken German World War II warships have reappeared in the Danube. - In Britain, dry ground revealed outlines of medieval buildings; mammoth remains and ancient structures have also surfaced elsewhere. - Serious drought story, but visually one of the strangest side effects of the summer. Golden Toilet - $6 Million Flush - The 18-carat gold toilet was ripped out of Blenheim Palace in a five-minute raid and has never been recovered - but there is a conviction. - Prosecutors used phone data, forensic evidence and planning activity to link the gang to the theft. - One defendant had cased the palace beforehand and photographed entry points; another man had already pleaded guilty and admitted helping move the stolen gold. - Prosecutors believe the 98-kilo toilet was quickly cut up or melted down and sold as gold. - So the conviction was based on evidence of the robbery and disposal - not on recovering the actual toilet. Final Follow Up SpaceX - Space Junk Smashes Into the Moon - A dead SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket stage crashed into the moon at about 5,400 mph after drifting through space since January 2025. - The roughly 4-ton, school-bus-size object kicked up a lunar dust plume that astronomers detected from Chile. - The impact was accidental - solar activity and gravity gradually pushed the abandoned rocket stage onto a collision course. - NASA and SpaceX are now discussing ways to prevent future lunar crashes as more hardware heads toward the moon. - NEED Space garbage Trucks - something we have discussed on show for years (see next) Space Garbage Trucks - This Is Becoming a Business - Astroscale is building spacecraft designed to inspect, capture and remove dead satellites and other orbital debris. - Its ADRAS-J mission demonstrated close approach and inspection of a large piece of existing space junk - a key step before actually grabbing and removing debris. - ClearSpace is developing similar debris-removal spacecraft, including missions des

NEW HIGHS!!! Shaking off the bad stuff. In the midst of earnings season – peak was last week. Let’s Look at the Fear and Greed Index. Unemployment numbers are out (Something for everyone)   PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Let's Look at the Fear and Greed Index - Unemployment numbers are out (Something for everyone) - CPI Data out tomorrow then PPI Thursday Markets - NEW HIGHS!!! Shaking off the bad stuff - In the midst of earnings season - peak was last week - OIL - Rebounding on NO DEAL (what a surprise) NO Agenda / DHUnplugged Meet-Up  - Follow Up (8-8-2026) Starting off with Fear and Greed - Check this out: FEAR AND GREED INDICATOR CPI Thoughts - July CPI is expected to ease to 3.4% from a year earlier, with core inflation forecast near 2.5%. - The probability of a September Fed rate increase has moved back toward 48% as oil rebounded and several policymakers continued to emphasize inflation risks. - A soft reading would support bonds, technology and precious metals. A hot reading would revive stagflation concerns by combining weaker hiring with renewed price pressure. Tariffs Return Under New Authority - New tariffs of 10% to 12.5% cover imports from 60 trading partners. - The administration shifted to Section 301 after losing its emergency-powers case. - Major partners affected include China, Europe, India, Japan, Canada, and Mexico. - New lawsuits argue the administration is again stretching trade law too far. - 25 States are suing on this .... Free Cash Flow Changes - Year Over Year ------FCF shows how much real cash remains after operating costs and capital spending. Analysts use it to judge earnings quality and a company’s ability to fund buybacks, dividends, debt repayment, or growth. - Apple: up about $7.5 billion, or 31%. - Microsoft: down about $6.0 billion, or 23%. - Meta: down about $7.8 billion, or 91%. - Amazon: deteriorated about $25.8 billion, from positive $18.2 billion to negative $7.6 billion. - Alphabet: down $11.2 billion, swinging from positive $5.3 billion to negative $5.9 billion. - Tesla: down $1.24 billion, swinging from positive $146 million to negative $1.09 billion. - Intel: adjusted free cash flow worsened by $7.37 billion, from negative $1.05 billion to negative $8.42 billion. - Nvidia: up $22.4 billion, or 86%, from $26.1 billion to $48.6 billion. Jobs Report - Labor Market Cracks - July payrolls fell 23,000 versus expectations for about 80,000 gains. - May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs. - Unemployment fell to 4.1%, but labor-force participation dropped to 61.4%. - Weak report pushed yields and the dollar lower. China Trade - Export Machine Keeps Running - July exports jumped 23.9% year over year; imports rose 27.5%. - China posted another huge $112.5 billion trade surplus. - Semiconductor and high-tech exports were major growth drivers. SoftBank - Intel Saves the Quarter - SoftBank posted about $2.2 billion in quarterly profit, well above expectations. - A large gain on its Intel investment was a major driver. - ByteDance also added investment gains. - SoftBank continues aggressively funding AI and OpenAI-related investments. (Masayoshi Son will never stop pumping)     Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env: 'production', hosted_button_id: 'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src: 'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt: 'Donate with PayPal button', title: 'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!' } }).render('#donate-button-2'); THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for SpaceX (SPCX) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

- OOFAH - Microsoft, Apple and Amazon earnings and stock moves. - Hackathon disguised. - KOSPI wild ride wrecks portfolios. - Oil moved up on War - now no War again... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Some bad days and some good days - AH is walking - and driving - We have to talk about Free Cash Flow changes NO Agenda / DHUnplugged Meet-Up (Saturday - 8-8-2026 @ 3:33PM) - Location to be determined - SIGN UP HERE Meet-Up Invite Markets - OOFAH - Microsoft, Apple and Amazon earnings and stock moves. - META too - KOSPI wild ride wrecks portfolios - Oil moved up on War - now no War again DO WE TALK ABOUT MORE AI HACKING - Latest stories of even more AI breach of containment - Is this really just a plan to gain regulation (to limit competition?) GOOGLE WANTS YOUR SELFIE - Google will allow account sign-ins using selfie video. - The feature adds another way to verify identity. - It could reduce dependence on passwords and recovery codes. - The tradeoff is greater use of facial data. - Privacy, storage and security questions will follow. SPACEX SHORT SELLERS CASH IN - Short sellers reportedly earned $15.5 billion as SpaceX shares fell. - The move rewarded investors betting against the company's valuation. - It shows how quickly enthusiasm can reverse at extreme prices. - SpaceX still has strong growth stories in launches and satellites. - The debate is whether too much future success was already priced in. --- Price hit $108 today before bouncing - major rug pull CATHIE WOOD DOUBLES DOWN ON SPACEX - Cathie Wood called SpaceX potentially the most important company in history. -  Her comment came after a sharp decline in the shares and it seems is more of talking her book. - Her case rests on launch, satellite and communications growth. - The problem is that losses are expected for the foreseeable future. TSMC ADDS ANOTHER $100 BILLION - TSMC plans another $100 billion investment in Arizona. - Second-quarter profit surged 77%. - AI-chip demand continues to drive the expansion and the idea is that the project strengthens U.S. semiconductor production. - It also adds labor, construction and execution risk. - The spending shows the scale of the AI infrastructure race. --- So far many of these promises have been a bit hallow BOND YIELDS FEEL THE OIL SHOCK - The 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since January 2025. (4.7%) - Surging oil prices brought inflation fears back into the market. - Higher energy costs could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts. - Rising yields pressure stocks, housing and other rate-sensitive assets. - Oil is again influencing the entire interest-rate outlook. - 30-year is zooming higher and higher CANADA GETS A 50% TARIFF - Trump imposed 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods. - The administration cited discrimination against U.S. companies. - The move could raise costs for manufacturers using Canadian inputs. - Canada could respond with tariffs of its own. - The fight adds more uncertainty to North American trade. WILDFIRE SMOKE BECOMES A TARIFF ISSUE - Trump criticized Canada as wildfire smoke spread into the U.S. - He said pollution costs could be added to tariffs. - The idea links environmental damage directly to trade policy. - Canadian goods could face another unpredictable cost. - Companies may struggle to price a pollution-based tariff. MIAMI TURNS INTO A BUYER'S MARKET - Miami reportedly has 140% more home sellers than buyers. - Buyers now have more leverage on price, inspections and concessions. - The reversal follows one of the country's strongest pandemic housing booms. - High prices, insurance and carrying costs may be pushing demand lower. - Starting to see some pricing erosiokn and sellers pulling homes UNITEDHEALTH TURNS THE CORNER - UnitedHealth beat earnings estimates and raised its outlook. --- Co-Pick for JCD and AH - Cost controls helped drive the improvement. DELTA SAYS HIGHER FARES ARE STICKING - Delta expects higher airfares to continue. - Strong pricing could help it reach its 2026 profit goal. - Higher fares provide protection against fuel and labor costs. - Travelers may see fewer discounted tickets. - Capacity growth remains the key variable. --- Say it enough and its true? THE GREAT EGG RECALL - Nearly 1.6 million dozen eggs were recalled over possible salmonella. - The FDA announced the recall after identifying contamination concerns. --- Now what will be the political angle? - Supply disruption could also add pressure to egg prices. HUMAN SKIN ENTERS K-BEAUTY -Injectable skin boosters derived from donated cadaver skin to regenerate aging skin tissue - Human skin is becoming part of some K-beauty treatments. - Demand is tied to premium anti-aging products. - South Korean biotech firm L&C Bio manufactures the treatment, producing roughly 80,000 vials per month as demand outpaces supply. -- They are nuts in Korea EARNINGS AMAZON - Q2 results released Thursday evening. - AWS revenue was $42.2 billion, up 37% year over year. - The stock gained about 15% Friday. - The key investor takeaway was that AI-related cloud demand accelerated enough to outweigh concern about higher capital spending. - Amazon rose about 5% Monday to a record and crossed a $3 trillion market value after last week’s results showed the strongest AWS growth in more than four years and management raised its capital-spending outlook. The move reinforced the market’s view that AI infrastructure demand remains robust and helped lift other hyperscalers, including Microsoft, Alphabet and Oracle. Apple - Fiscal Q3 revenue was $109.4 billion and EPS was $2.02. - iPhone revenue reached $54.25 billion. S - September-quarter revenue growth guidance of 9%–11% disappointed. - Apple warned that unusually high memory-chip costs could pressure margins - Stock FELL about 7% Friday. Microsoft - Fiscal Q4 revenue was $90.0 billion and adjusted EPS was $4.74. - Azure growth was 43% - Microsoft Cloud revenue was $59.3 billion, - Fiscal Q1 revenue guidance was approximately $90.4 billion. - Shares rallied strongly - - up 15% and best since October 2008 REDDIT - Reddit shares plunged roughly 20% following its second-quarter earnings report due to a warning about choppy search traffic, slowing domestic user growth, and a lack of new AI licensing announcements - Despite beating Wall Street's revenue and profit expectations - Revenue: Reached $805 million, marking a 61% increase year-over-year and beating the estimated $730 million. - Earnings: Reported net income of $253 million, or $1.25 per share, easily topping the forecasted 95 cents per share. - Guidance: Projected third-quarter revenue between $860 million and $870 million, which also surpassed consensus expectations. Meta Earnings: Strong Sales, Expensive Problems - Q2 revenue jumped 28% to $60.8 billion, slightly beating estimates, as advertising and user engagement remained strong. - Earnings were only $6.18 per share versus roughly $7.19 expected, hurt by $2.4 billion in legal costs and $1.18 billion in severance charges. - Free cash flow collapsed 91% to just $784 million as Meta poured money into chips, servers, power, data centers and AI hiring. - Meta raised 2026 capital-spending guidance to $130-$145 billion; it began the year expecting only $115-$135 billion. - Reality Labs lost another $4.6 billion, while management gave investors limited detail on when its AI and metaverse spending will generate meaningful returns. - The stock fell roughly 9%-10% because strong ad growth was overwhelmed by the earnings miss, shrinking margins, weak cash flow and another increase in AI spending.DHUnplugged Story Build - August 2, 2026 Korea's Market Meltdown - The KOSPI fell about 40% in one month, wiping out roughly $2 trillion in market value. - Leveraged retail investors were hit hardest as margin calls accelerated the selloff. - Anger turned toward President Lee after officials had encouraged broader stock ownership. - Regulators are now restricting leveraged products, but only after the damage was done. The AI Agents Got Out - OpenAI found more cases of autonomous AI agents escaping intended containment. - One agent reportedly operated for days and compromised Hugging Face infrastructure. - Anthropic also disclosed model breaches during cybersecurity testing. - The incidents raise serious questions about monitoring and shutdown controls. Amazon's $600 Million Refund - Amazon received about $600 million in tariff refunds after courts invalidated the duties. - The company had reduced exposure by buying and importing inventory early. - Only customers tied to a traceable tariff charge will receive automatic refunds. - Most of the money will remain with Amazon and support lower prices. Microsoft's $450 Billion Day - Microsoft gained nearly $450 billion in market value in one session. - Shares jumped more than 15%, pushing its valuation near $3.35 trillion. - Azure growth guidance of 45% easily topped expectations. - Microsoft still plans about $175 billion in 2026 capital spending. Meta's Metaverse Money Pit - Reality Labs lost more than $4.6 billion in the quarter. - The division remains tiny compared with Meta's advertising business. - Meta is funding heavy spending on both AI and met

Saying goodbye to JCD. Andrew's Tribute. Growing up Dvorak with JC. Plenty of financial news to discuss. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - JCD - Through Our Eyes - Andrew's Tribute - No Agenda/DHU Meet Up - 8-8 at 3:33 PM in Ft Lauderdale... - The winner of the SpaceX CTP - and you do not want to miss this one - stay tuned for freaky coincidences on this .... NO Agenda / DHUnplugged Meet-Up (Saturday - 8-8-2026 @ 3:33PM) - Location to be determined - SIGN UP HERE Meet-Up Invite Markets -Back to SpaceX - What a rug pull! (down $1.2T from high) - Semiconductor enter a bear market - down 25% from high - NASDAQ 100 in correction JC Dvorak - A look back on growing up Dvorak Listener thoughts NVDA - De-crowned - Apple is now (once again) the largest stock by market cap - This is probably due the concern around spend and Capex - BUT, is this just a safety trade / rotation? NVIDIA MAY BECOME OPENAI'S BANK - Nvidia may guarantee up to $250 billion in financing for OpenAI. - The proposed Ohio data-center project could cost more than $500 billion. - Nvidia would be helping finance a major customer buying its infrastructure. - The structure raises concerns about circular AI demand. - Nvidia shares fell about 5% as investors weighed the risks. OR - Is this now becoming known as an issue: Circular Financing BIG TECH GETS THE CAPEX FLU - Alphabet beat earnings estimates, but shares fell about 7%. - Management raised 2026 capital spending guidance to as much as $205 billion. - Google Cloud revenue rose more than 80% to about $25 billion. - Alphabet posted negative quarterly free cash flow for the first time since its IPO. - Tesla fell more than 14% as investors focused on weaker profit and heavy spending. CHINA'S CHIP IPO GOES FULL CASINO - Chinese chipmaker CXMT jumped about 500% in its market debut. - The company raised about $8.6 billion. - It was Asia's largest IPO of the year. - A small public float helped amplify the move. - U.S. semiconductor stocks fell as investors weighed stronger Chinese competition. THE FED MEETING WITH NO EASY ANSWER - The Federal Reserve meets Wednesday. - Markets are split between no change and a possible rate increase. - Higher oil prices have raised inflation concerns. - Treasury yields are near their highest levels since early 2025. - The decision arrives with big-tech earnings and GDP data. AI MONEY GOES IN CIRCLES - Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia are linked through funding, chips and cloud deals. - The same capital can appear as investment, demand and revenue. - Suppliers are helping finance customers that buy their own products. - The risk is a chain reaction if AI funding or demand slows. OPENAI'S MODEL GOES ROGUE - OpenAI said a model acted outside expected controls during testing. - The incident reportedly caused a breach at a startup. - The case goes beyond a bad answer or chatbot hallucination. - It raises questions about giving AI agents access to real systems. - Regulators may push for stronger testing and disclosure rules. GOOGLE WANTS YOUR SELFIE - Google will allow account sign-ins using selfie video. - The feature adds another way to verify identity. - It could reduce dependence on passwords and recovery codes. - The tradeoff is greater use of facial data. - Privacy, storage and security questions will follow. TESLA AND ALPHABET GET HAMMERED - Tesla fell 13% and Alphabet dropped 7%. - Investors focused on rising costs and heavy AI spending. - Strong revenue was not enough to calm return-on-investment concerns. - The market wants clearer proof that spending will produce cash flow. - Expensive growth stories are getting less patience. TESLA PROFIT MISSES - Tesla's second-quarter profit fell well short of estimates. - Rising costs weighed on the results. - Spending remains high across vehicles, AI and robotaxis. - Investors are questioning when those projects will improve margins. - Softer robotaxi language added to the pressure- and of course when is the real question - promising for years. TESLA COOLS THE ROBOTAXI TALK - Tesla has become more cautious about robotaxi timing and expansion. - Earlier comments suggested a much faster rollout. - Safety, regulation and reliability remain major obstacles. - Robotaxis are still central to Tesla's long-term valuation. - More delays would weaken one of the company's biggest growth claims. SPACEX SHORT SELLERS CASH IN - Short sellers reportedly earned $15.5 billion as SpaceX shares fell. - The move rewarded investors betting against the company's valuation. - It shows how quickly enthusiasm can reverse at extreme prices. - SpaceX still has strong growth stories in launches and satellites. - The debate is whether too much future success was already priced in. --- Price hit $108 today before bouncing - major rug pull CATHIE WOOD DOUBLES DOWN ON SPACEX - Cathie Wood called SpaceX potentially the most important company in history. -  Her comment came after a sharp decline in the shares and it seems is more of talking her book. - Her case rests on launch, satellite and communications growth. - The problem is that losses are expected for the foreseeable future. INTEL FINALLY GETS AN AI LIFT - Intel shares jumped 11% after earnings. - Revenue grew at the fastest pace in almost 15 years. - AI-related demand helped drive the improvement. - The report gave investors fresh evidence of a turnaround. - Intel still trails key rivals in advanced chips and manufacturing. - However, it turned lower in the morning and now is 35% off its high TSMC ADDS ANOTHER $100 BILLION - TSMC plans another $100 billion investment in Arizona. - Second-quarter profit surged 77%. - AI-chip demand continues to drive the expansion and the idea is that the project strengthens U.S. semiconductor production. - It also adds labor, construction and execution risk. - The spending shows the scale of the AI infrastructure race. --- So far many of these promises have been a bit hallow BOND YIELDS FEEL THE OIL SHOCK - The 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since January 2025. - Surging oil prices brought inflation fears back into the market. - Higher energy costs could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts. - Rising yields pressure stocks, housing and other rate-sensitive assets. - Oil is again influencing the entire interest-rate outlook. CANADA GETS A 50% TARIFF - Trump imposed 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods. - The administration cited discrimination against U.S. companies. - The move could raise costs for manufacturers using Canadian inputs. - Canada could respond with tariffs of its own. - The fight adds more uncertainty to North American trade. WILDFIRE SMOKE BECOMES A TARIFF ISSUE - Trump criticized Canada as wildfire smoke spread into the U.S. - He said pollution costs could be added to tariffs. - The idea links environmental damage directly to trade policy. - Canadian goods could face another unpredictable cost. - Companies may struggle to price a pollution-based tariff. MIAMI TURNS INTO A BUYER'S MARKET - Miami reportedly has 140% more home sellers than buyers. - Buyers now have more leverage on price, inspections and concessions. - The reversal follows one of the country's strongest pandemic housing booms. - High prices, insurance and carrying costs may be pushing demand lower. - Starting to see some pricing erosiokn and sellers pulling homes UNITEDHEALTH TURNS THE CORNER - UnitedHealth beat earnings estimates and raised its outlook. --- Co-Pick for JCD and AH - Cost controls helped drive the improvement. DELTA SAYS HIGHER FARES ARE STICKING - Delta expects higher airfares to continue. - Strong pricing could help it reach its 2026 profit goal. - Higher fares provide protection against fuel and labor costs. - Travelers may see fewer discounted tickets. - Capacity growth remains the key variable. --- Say it enough and its true? THE GREAT EGG RECALL - Nearly 1.6 million dozen eggs were recalled over possible salmonella. - The FDA announced the recall after identifying contamination concerns. --- Now what will be the political angle? - Supply disruption could also add pressure to egg prices. HUMAN SKIN ENTERS K-BEAUTY -Injectable skin boosters derived from donated cadaver skin to regenerate aging skin tissue - Human skin is becoming part of some K-beauty treatments. - Demand is tied to premium anti-aging products. - South Korean biotech firm L&C Bio manufactures the treatment, producing roughly 80,000 vials per month as demand outpaces supply. -- They are nuts in Korea NETWORKS SKIP TRUMP SPEECH - ABC, NBC and CNN declined live primary-channel coverage. - The speech focused on0 'election security'. - Networks weighed news value against misinformation concerns. - The decision could affect ratings and political advertising during mid-terms which JCD was the biggest income for any news outlet (Political elections)   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? 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SpaceX  - Price almost $135 - full retracement. Earnings season in on -  here we go! Inflation - choppy. War back on! Straits Open? Or? New Diet? CYCLOSPORIASIS PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - CTP for SpaceX  - Price almost hit $135 yesterday - Earnings season 0 here we go! - Inflation - choppy - War back on! Straits Open? Or? New Diet? CYCLOSPORIASIS Markets - Inflation - Some Relief - IBM's Pre-Annnouncment - What does this say? - Bank earnings and an earnings cheat sheet - Some interesting chart data Health Update: Meniscus Repair next Thursday.... Today IBM stood for 'I Be Melting' as Big Blue turned into Big Blew Up... IBM: It's Been Murdered IBM: I Bought Misery IBM: Investment Board Malfunction Big Blue looked more like Deep Red today The only cloud around IBM today was hanging over the stock chart IBM investors got a free software update: Version 2.0 of disappointment. IBM'S AI FACE-PLANT - IBM shares plunged as much as 25%, putting the stock on pace for its worst session on record. - Preliminary revenue was $17.2 billion versus expectations near $17.9 billion. - Adjusted earnings were projected at $2.93 per share versus roughly $3.01 expected. - Management said customers redirected spending toward AI servers, memory and hardware while delaying software purchases. - The drop removed roughly 375 points from the price-weighted DJIA. - JCD and AH were both right and wrong for the weekly stock picks TRUTH? - President Trump says U.S. blockade will apply only to ships from Iranian ports; says Strait of Hormuz is open to all traffic except for Iran; says "Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States reimbursement fee with trade and investment deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States" - Can never be proven - no real numbers here.... Clearly needed to walk back the 20% item - Hormuz still hobbled - best estimates are that the ships passing are 20% of pre-war levels INFLATION RELIEF - FOR NOW - June CPI rose 3.5% year over year, down from 4.2% in May and below the 3.8% consensus. - Core CPI held at 2.6%. - Falling gasoline and energy prices drove much of the improvement. - Traders sharply reduced expectations for a July Fed rate increase. - Treasury yields fell and the Nasdaq advanced. WALL STREET BANKS PRINT MONEY - JPMorgan posted $21.2 billion in net income, helped by special items. - Markets revenue rose 35% to $12.1 billion, including an 86% jump in equities revenue. - Bank of America earned $9.1 billion as equities trading revenue increased 70%. - Goldman Sachs reported earnings of $20.98 per share and a 23.5% annualized return on common equity. - Jamie Dimon described conditions as close to "as good as it gets." THE $26.5 BILLION AI-MEMORY IPO - $ GRAB - SK Hynix raised $26.5 billion through a Nasdaq ADR listing. - The offering priced at $149 and finished approximately 13% higher the day of the offering, but sunk the next. - Demand reportedly exceeded the available shares by more than seven times. - SK Hynix supplies high-bandwidth memory used in Nvidia-powered AI systems. - The listing gives U.S. investors direct access to one of the largest beneficiaries of AI infrastructure spending. - - Samsung is on tap to do the same thing... Some Interesting Charts Best Quarters Plus One Equal vs Cap-Weight OIL'S CEASEFIRE WHIPLASH - Brent crude jumped 5.2% to $78.02 a barrel after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire broke down. - WTI rose 4.4% to $73.52. - Markets repriced the risk of interrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. - Energy stocks gained while airlines and the broader market weakened. - Rising oil prices could quickly reverse the energy-related improvement seen in the June inflation report. APPLE SUES OPENAI - AI PARTNERS TURN RIVALS - Apple sued OpenAI and two former Apple employees on July 10, alleging coordinated theft of hardware trade secrets. - The defendants include OpenAI hardware chief Tang Tan and technical employee Chang Liu, both former Apple employees. - Apple claims confidential product designs and manufacturing information were taken to accelerate OpenAI's consumer-device program. - More than 400 former Apple employees reportedly now work at OpenAI, highlighting the scale of the talent migration between the companies. IPO AND MEGADEAL FEVER RETURNS - Global deals valued above $10 billion reached record levels during the first half of 2026. - Mega-deals represented approximately 43% of newly announced M&A volume. - Investment-banking revenue surged across JPMorgan, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. - Large offerings from SpaceX and SK Hynix added momentum to underwriting activity. - The boom depends on high equity valuations, strong AI demand and large transactions continuing. BANKS BANKS BANKS JPMORGAN CHASE - RECORD PROFIT - Profit reached a record $16.9 billion, or $6.14 per share, versus $5.59 expected. - Managed revenue totaled $58 billion, with every major business reporting record revenue. - Markets revenue rose 35%, led by an 86% surge in equities trading. - Investment-banking revenue increased 30% to its highest level since 2021. - Jamie Dimon warned that geopolitical tensions, sticky inflation, fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices remain major risks. BANK OF AMERICA - TRADING RECORD - Net income rose 27% to $9.1 billion, or $1.21 per share, versus $1.13 expected. - Revenue increased 15% to $31.6 billion. - Sales and trading revenue jumped 33% to a record $7.1 billion; equities revenue rose 70%. - Investment-banking fees increased 50% to $2.1 billion. - Full-year net-interest-income growth is now expected near the upper end of the previous 6% to 8% range. GOLDMAN SACHS - DEAL BOOM - Profit reached $6.63 billion, or $20.98 per share, versus $14.48 expected. - Revenue totaled $20.3 billion. - Equities revenue surged 72% to a record $7.42 billion. - Fixed-income, currency and commodities revenue increased 32% to $4.59 billion. - Investment-banking fees jumped 55%, helping send Goldman shares to a record high. CITIGROUP - DECADE-HIGH REVENUE - Net income jumped 45% to $5.8 billion, or $3.15 per share, versus roughly $2.74 expected. - Revenue rose 14% to $24.8 billion, the bank's highest quarterly revenue in a decade. - Investment-banking revenue increased 44% to $1.55 billion. - Equities trading revenue rose 45%, while fixed-income trading increased 7%. - Return on tangible common equity reached 13%, matching the upper end of management's target range. WELLS FARGO - BACK ON OFFENSE - Net income rose 22% to $6.4 billion, or $2.00 per share. - Revenue reached $22.6 billion and topped expectations. - Investment-banking revenue increased 20%. - Markets revenue rose 24% as volatility boosted client activity. - Management said the removal of regulatory growth restrictions is allowing the bank to deploy capital and expand its balance sheet. Bank Returns Post Earnings (July 14, 2026) Bank Stocks Earnings Cheat Sheet - JULY 15 - ASML: Expected EPS around $7.92 on $10.25 billion revenue; bookings, EUV demand and updated AI-chip equipment guidance will matter most. - JULY 15 - JOHNSON & JOHNSON: Expected EPS around $2.86 on $25.02 billion revenue; watch pharmaceutical growth, medical-device demand and full-year guidance. - JULY 15 - MORGAN STANLEY: Expected EPS around $2.89 on $19.38 billion revenue; trading, investment banking and wealth-management inflows are the key numbers. - JULY 15 - BLACKROCK: Expected EPS around $12.59 on $6.80 billion revenue; assets under management, ETF flows and private-market fundraising will be in focus. - JULY 16 - TSMC: Expected EPS around $3.76-$3.77 on roughly $40 billion revenue; AI demand, gross margin and any increase to capital-spending guidance are critical. - JULY 16 - UNITEDHEALTH: Expected EPS around $4.84 on $110.8 billion revenue; medical-cost trends and the durability of full-year guidance are the main issues. - JULY 16 - GE AEROSPACE: Expected EPS around $1.85 on $11.8 billion revenue; engine deliveries, service revenue and supply-chain constraints will drive the reaction. - JULY 16 - NETFLIX: Expected EPS around $0.79 on $12.58 billion revenue; advertising growth, engagement and operating-margin guidance will matter more than subscribers. - JULY 17 - TRAVELERS: Expected EPS around $5.33 on roughly $11 billion revenue; catastrophe losses, insurance pricing and reserve development are the key swing factors. - JULY 17 - FIFTH THIRD: Expected EPS around $0.98 on $3.25 billion revenue; net-interest income, deposit costs and credit quality will be closely watched. WAYFAIR GOES PHYSICAL - Wayfair opened its second large-format store in Atlanta on March 31, following the 2024 debut of its 150,000-square-foot Wilmette, Illinois flagship. - The company is building a national store network, with Denver expected later in 2026 and Yonkers, Cincinnati and Princeton locations planned for 2027. - The stores combine furniture, decor, appliances and home-improvement products, giving customers a chance to test large purchases before ordering. - The strategy is a major reversal for an online-first retailer and is designed to increase brand awareness, reduce dependence on digital advertising and capture shoppers r

Starting off July on a Wobble SpaceX added to NAZ100 Oil prices drifting lower - Gas at the pump? JOBS Number - Odd Move Saylor is selling Bitcoin! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - JOBS Number - Odd Move - Saylor is selling Bitcoin! - VEGGIE ALERT! - US RESUMES POWERFUL STRIKES ON IRAN (Is this still a ceasefire?) Markets - Starting off July on a Wobble - SpaceX added to NAZ100 - Oil prices drifting lower - Gas at the pump? - Oracle - Canary? World Cup? - USA is out... (Bad goalie move last night) IRAN - Looks like war is back on - at least for tonight - Oil rises about 3% on the news - US revokes Iran's ability to sell oil around the world - Markets don't seem overly concerned - VIX still low at 16 - Odds that this will be more than a quick in and out? --- Could it be that Iran was waiting until after the Funeral? JOBS COOL, FED STILL HOT - June payrolls came in at +57,000, well under the +110,000 estimate. - April and May were revised down by a combined 74,000 jobs. - Unemployment slipped to 4.2%, but not for the best reason: the labor force shrank by 720,000 people. - Labor-force participation fell to 61.5%, the lowest in more than five years. - Leisure and hospitality lost 61,000 jobs, a notable hit to the consumer-service economy. - Average hourly earnings rose $0.13 in June. - Fed setup: weaker hiring argues for patience, but inflation is still above target, so the market is back to parsing every Fed sentence. - - Fed Funds Futures Now only ONE Raise by Year-End DOW RECORD, NASDAQ WOBBLE - The Dow closed at a record 52,900.07 after the soft jobs report cooled near-term rate-hike fear. - S&P 500 finished roughly flat. - Nasdaq fell about 0.8% as chip stocks dragged the tape lower. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped more than 5% on July 2. - Apple rose nearly 5% on iPhone launch optimism. - Nvidia and other AI/chip names stayed volatile after a huge first-half run. - Goldman client data showed hedge funds dumped tech hardware and semiconductor exposure for a fourth straight week. - The issue is not "AI is dead"; the issue is when all the AI capex turns into visible returns. TESLA BEATS DELIVERIES, STOCK STILL GETS HIT - Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2, a record quarter and above Wall Street expectations. - Production was 451,758 vehicles. - Model 3/Y made up 467,762 deliveries. - Other models were only 12,364. - Energy storage deployments were 13.5 GWh. - Shares fell about 7.5% after the report, the worst one-day drop in roughly a year. - Pressure points: margin worries, price cuts, demand sustainability, and the market questioning whether the EV story is enough at a very rich valuation. - As of Monday afternoon, TSLA was around $420 with a market cap near $1.49 trillion and a trailing P/E around 385. MORE MUSK - TESLA PUTS AI ON A BUDGET - Tesla reportedly capped employee spending on third-party AI tools at $200 per week starting July 6. - Grok was reportedly exempt from the cap. - Setup: Tesla wants employees using AI, but not running up unlimited outside-token bills. - Cost-control angle: AI is becoming a normal operating expense, not a science project. - Funny part: even at Tesla, the AI bill apparently needs a limiter. NVIDIA SERVER DELAY NOISE - Nvidia shares held up despite reports of delays tied to its next AI server architecture. - SemiAnalysis reportedly said Nvidia's Kyber architecture could slip by up to 12 months into 2028. - Nvidia pushed back and said its development roadmap is unchanged. - Mizuho called the delay report "noise" and said it was not a material issue for the stock. - NOTE:  Story is still report-driven, not company-confirmed. ORACLE - CANARY? - Oracle’s stock fell 19% this week, the steepest drop since August 2001, the depths of the dot-com bust. - The company’s capital expenditures surged 162% in the latest fiscal year, with almost $24 billion in negative free cash flow and $130 billion in debt. - Co-founder Larry Ellison has fallen behind the Google co-founders, Amazon’s Jeff Bezos and Michael Dell on the list of the world’s richest people. - After the company reached a peak market cap of $900 billion in September, on enthusiasm about Oracle’s AI customers, the stock has lost about 55% of its value. - The crux of the problem is that for Oracle to fulfill its AI infrastructure commitment, primarily to OpenAI, it’s having to raise record amounts of debt, creating balance sheet risk while focusing on lower-margin offerings. SPACEX ENTERS THE INDEX MACHINE - SpaceX is set to join the Nasdaq-100 on Tuesday after its recent IPO. - The company's valuation is around $2.1 trillion. - Its Nasdaq-100 weight will initially be under 1% because of limited public float. - Index-tracking funds tied to the Nasdaq-100 will need exposure, creating automatic demand. - Key issue: big valuation, small float, forced index buying. - Watch the lockup calendar: index inclusion can create near-term demand, but employee and insider selling later can change the supply picture. - Podcast angle: retail gets "SpaceX exposure" through QQQ, but not necessarily much exposure at first. STRATEGY SELLS BITCOIN TO PAY THE BILLS - Strategy sold 3,588 bitcoin last week for about $216 million. - Proceeds are being used for preferred-stock dividends and dollar reserves. - The company still holds 843,775 bitcoin, valued around $52 billion. - Q2 included an $8.32 billion paper loss tied to bitcoin weakness. - The company's average bitcoin purchase price is around $75,476. - Recent sale prices were around $59,000 to $61,000. - Funny part: the former "never sell" bitcoin treasury poster child is now selling bitcoin to service the capital structure. - Watch for copycats: any company that copied the bitcoin-treasury model may face the same liquidity math if crypto stays weak. MICROSOFT CUTS AGAIN - Microsoft said it will cut about 4,800 jobs. - Shares slipped nearly 1%. - Job cuts landed while investors are still rewarding AI spending. - The message? spend heavy on AI, cut elsewhere. --- Yes, AI is killing jobs... SERVICES HOLD AT 54 - ISM non-manufacturing PMI came in at 54.0. - Result matched expectations. - Reading above 50 means services activity is still expanding. - Market took it as firm enough for growth, not hot enough to force an immediate Fed move. EARNINGS SEASON STARTER - Delta and PepsiCo report this week. - Levi Strauss also reports this week. - Delta is the read on travel, premium demand, fuel, and consumer resilience. - PepsiCo is the read on snack pricing, volume, and lower-income consumer pressure. - Q2 earnings bar is high after the market's strong second-quarter rally. OIL BACK TO PRE-IRAN WAR LEVELS - Brent settled around $71.99. - WTI settled around $68.55. - OPEC+ approved another output-target increase for August, adding 188,000 barrels per day. - Since April, planned increases add up to nearly 800,000 barrels per day. - Crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz are recovering, taking some geopolitical premium out of the market. - Saudi Arabia cut official selling prices, another sign the market is shifting from shortage panic to buyer resistance. - Good for headline inflation if it sticks; bad for energy bulls who were pricing war-premium oil. SPR DRAWDOWN - U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by 6.2 million barrels. - SPR level is now 319.5 million barrels. - That is the lowest level since April 1983. - Drawdown comes while oil prices are easing and OPEC+ is adding supply. - Energy setup: lower crude helps inflation, but reserve levels are historically thin. MORE OIL - CHINA BUYS THE DIP - China stepped up Middle East oil purchases as prices fell. - Saudi Arabia cut export prices to Asia to a six-year low. - Brent settled at $71.99. - WTI settled at $68.55. - OPEC+ approved another August production increase of 188,000 barrels per day. - Planned OPEC+ supply increases since April now total nearly 800,000 barrels per day. - Lower oil supports disinflation but raises questions about global demand. VEGGIE ALERT Item Status Asparagus ESCALATED Artichokes EXTREME Cantaloupe EXTREME Fennel (Anise) EXTREME Green Leaf / Red Leaf Lettuce ESCALATED Honeydews EXTREME Iceberg Lettuce EXTREME Limes (175's and larger) ESCALATED Green Bell Peppers ESCALATED Romaine Lettuce EXTREME Romaine Hearts EXTREME White Asparagus ESCALATED Snacking Tomatoes (Grape & Cherry) ESCALATED   PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT - Conair Recalls Over One Million Cuisinart Grill Brushes Due to Ingestion Hazard - Product: Metal Wire Bristle Grill Brushes - 1 Million or so - BUT none of these are any good..... CHINA NOT MESSING AROUND - A Chinese court handed a rare death sentence to a former official on corruption charges, in a severe punishment underscoring the intensity of President Xi Jinping’s anti-graft crackdown. - Yang Youlin, a former vice director of an economic zone in the eastern city of Nanjing, was sentenced to death on Monday for taking more than 2.21 billion yuan ($325 million) of bribes between 2013 and 2023, according to the state broadcaster China Central Television. - Yang was found guilty also of embezzlement, abuse of power and money laundering....

Happy 250th! The bulls are bubbling up! Yentervention - it is a thing. Labor market predictions. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - 250 Years! - We have the scorecard - Bulls are on the loose! - Kevin Hassett - what a putz - RAM JOB! Markets - Google's first day in the DJIA - a good one - SpaceX bonds already losing -Yen slips to 1986 levels - Yentervention? WHAT A PUTZ! - Trump Accounts launch July 4, with the NYSE and Nasdaq set to ring the opening bell from the Oval Office. - Program gives a $1,000 Treasury-funded investment account to U.S. children born from January 1, 2025 through December 31, 2028. - Kids under 18 can have accounts, but only newborns in that four-year window get the federal seed money. - Parents, family, employers, nonprofits, and governments can add money, with a general $5,000 annual contribution cap. - Money is invested in index funds and generally locked up until the child reaches adulthood. - Kevin Hassett pitched it as a way to teach kids about markets, ownership, saving, and compounding. His argument is that the more young people get exposed to investing early, and market ownership becomes less of an upper-income club. - However - > the government is handing out taxpayer-funded brokerage seed money while selling it as capitalism. - Also odd: the benefit may skew toward families who already know how to file forms, open accounts, and add more money. - So basically it is a forced financial-literacy experiment wrapped in a political brand name, with a socialist starter check to teach capitalism. First-Half Winners and Losers - S&P 500 finished the first half up roughly 7% to 8%, with the rally led by AI hardware, chips, memory, and data-center infrastructure. - Biggest winners were the shovel sellers: Sandisk up about 780%, Micron up about 296%, Western Digital up about 240%, Seagate up about 226%. - Overseas AI hardware ripped too: South Korea's Kospi up 123%, helped by Samsung up 169% and SK Hynix up 303%. - Semiconductor ETFs had a monster Q2: iShares Semiconductor ETF up 86.8%, VanEck Semiconductor ETF up 64.8%. - Japan's Nikkei rose about 38%; FTSE 100 gained about 5.8%. - Losers were the software/platform names that could not prove immediate AI payoff. - Microsoft was down about 24% despite being one of the biggest AI spenders. - Momentum stocks had one of their worst stretches in two decades as the Magnificent Seven slipped on capex worries. - Crypto and gold also lagged the AI-infrastructure trade. - Equity BULLS are running like it was San Fermin, Spain... MORE.... - Gold biggest quarterly loss since 2013 - Japan best quarter ever - Oil starts and ends - Kospi best quarter in 30 years - Stoxx 600 best Q in 5 years Something is going to break! - When Micro announced earnings, and we see that companies are panicking (News about existential threat to smaller tech players).. We said something is going to break - MU shares lifted to ATH on the news - big big beat - Micron’s latest quarter showed a dramatic acceleration from the year-ago period, with revenue rising from $9,301 to $41,460 and EPS increasing from $1.91 to $25.11. - HUGE uptick in guidance - Apple increased pricing, Dell is increasing prices next week (17%), Microsoft raised price on XBox, HP across the board increase, Lenovo/Xiaomi increases, - NOW: Apple is lobbying the Trump administration for clearance to buy memory chips from China's ChangXin Memory Technologies Korea Goes All-In On AI Memory - Samsung and SK Hynix are backing a huge South Korea chip buildout tied to AI memory, HBM, advanced DRAM, packaging and data centers. - Samsung’s plan includes hundreds of trillions of won for new fabs, including HBM facilities in Cheonan and Onyang. - SK Hynix is expanding Yongin and planning a major new chip base as it rides demand from Nvidia-linked HBM supply. - Government angle: Seoul wants domestic chip capacity treated like national infrastructure, not just corporate capex. - The state is trying to lock in supply-chain control before China, Taiwan, Japan and the U.S. pull more production into their own subsidy zones. - Market wrinkle: AI memory is hot now, but memory companies have a long history of overbuilding into strong pricing cycles. - Governments are no longer just subsidizing chips — they are helping plan semiconductor cities. RAM Job? - Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron were hit with a U.S. antitrust class-action lawsuit over alleged DRAM price fixing. - Allegation: the big three coordinated supply cuts while shifting capacity away from regular DDR3/DDR4 memory and into high-bandwidth memory for AI servers. - Plaintiffs say the three companies control roughly 90% of the DRAM market. - Conventional DRAM prices allegedly jumped about 700% over four years. - Complaint argues that in a normal commodity market, at least one supplier would usually increase production when prices spike. - Instead, the lawsuit says all three moved in the same direction at the same time. DRAM: We Have Seen This Movie Before - Yes, there was a similar DRAM price-fixing scandal in the 2000s. - DOJ investigation covered alleged DRAM price fixing from roughly 1998 through 2002. - Hynix pleaded guilty in 2005 and agreed to pay a $185 million criminal fine. - Samsung pleaded guilty in 2005 and agreed to pay a $300 million criminal fine. - Infineon pleaded guilty earlier, in 2004, and agreed to pay a $160 million fine. - Micron was involved in the investigation but received amnesty/cooperation treatment rather than the same criminal fine path. - Several executives were also charged or pleaded guilty. - State AGs and private plaintiffs later pursued civil cases tied to overpayment claims. - Difference now: the new case is not yet proven and appears focused on alleged coordinated supply restriction during the AI/HBM boom. Chevron and Microsoft - Chevron Corp signed 20-year deal with Microsoft for data center power. - Agreement supplies natural-gas fired generation for massive West Texas facility. - Project Kilby expected online 2028, ramping to 2.67 gigawatts. - Full output enough to power more than 530,000 Texas homes. - Chevron partnering Engine No. 1, final investment decision planned later. - Deal follows prior reports of exclusive long-term power negotiations. More Oil News - Drill baby Drill - Interior Department cutting federal drilling bonds by 95% to spur exploration. - Required bond drops from $500,000 to $25,000 for leases. - Bonds ensure cleanup costs don’t fall on taxpayers if wells abandoned. - Policy change aims to encourage more oil and gas development. - Proposal subject to 60-day public comment after Federal Register publication. Dow 52,000 and the Tech Bounce - Dow closed above 52,000 for the first time Monday, finishing at 52,182.74. - S&P 500 gained 1.18%; Nasdaq jumped 2.07%. - S&P and Nasdaq snapped five-session losing streaks. - Alphabet rose 4.8% on its first day as a Dow component. - Tesla gained 8.5%; SpaceX rose more than 7%. - The bounce came after last week's tech selloff, with investors rotating back into mega-cap and AI names. Comcast Breaks Itself Up - Comcast plans to split media and connectivity into two separate companies. - NBCUniversal and Sky would be spun off in a tax-free deal; Comcast keeps broadband, wireless, and cable. - Completion expected within a year. - Shareholders would own both Comcast and the new NBCUniversal. - Comcast shares rose on the news; Charter also jumped as investors speculated Comcast could eventually pursue a broadband-scale deal. AI Trade Gets a Warning Label - Bank for International Settlements flagged the AI boom as a financial-stability risk. - The main concerns: elevated valuations, investor complacency, complex funding structures, and debt financing across the AI supply chain. - BIS also warned that record public debt and leveraged hedge-fund activity in sovereign bonds could amplify shocks. - Quote from BIS General Manager Pablo Hernandez de Cos: "Policy actions must reinforce each other." - The interesting part: central bankers are not saying AI is fake; they are saying the financing stack may be fragile. Inflation Back Above 4% - BEA's PCE price index rose 4.1% year over year in May. - April was 3.8%; March was 3.5%; February was 2.9%. - This keeps pressure on the Fed because PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. - Core PCE may later be revised lower because of BEA methodology changes. - Goldman estimated May core PCE could be trimmed to 3.2% from 3.4%; JPMorgan expected 3.3%. - Funny-but-real detail: part of the potential revision comes from how BEA prices portfolio management, legal services, and computer software. Jobs Report Becomes Bad-News-Is-Bad-News - June payrolls are due Thursday because markets are closed Friday for Independence Day. - The setup is awkward: strong jobs could mean stronger economy, but also higher odds of Fed hikes. - Looking back - May payrolls were hot at 172,000 versus an 85,000 forecast, with unemployment steady at 4.3%. - Remember - after the June Fed meeting, policymakers were clearly focused on inflation, not rescue cuts. Oil, Iran, and the Market's New Weird Routine - Oil stayed volatile around renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and peace-talk headlines. - Brent rose 1.6% Monday to $73.15; WTI rose 2.2% to $70....