Advertise on podcast: Ernstfall – What if Russia Attacks NATO? Inside a German Wargame

The wargame is heading toward a decisive moment. In our fictional scenario, Russian troops are digging in. And Europe is struggling to find a response that neither triggers panic at home nor signals weakness abroad. The overarching question is: Who is really in control of the escalation? Episode 5 focuses on the battle for the narrative and the political costs of military decisions. A large-scale communications campaign aims to make it clear who is really attacking here and who is defending itself. But that doesn’t change the situation on the ground. Because NATO’s most forceful option remains blocked in our simulation. While alternatives are being debated between Berlin and Brussels, a proposal is on the table that tests Moscow’s claims. Script and Storytelling: Antonia Beckermann, Carolina Drüten Produced by: Marvin Schwarz If you enjoy the podcast, we’d be grateful if you could leave a rating or review. If you have questions or feedback, we’d love to hear from you at [email protected]. The participants of the wargame: Blue Team (Germany) Chancellor: Peter Tauber Defense Minister: Roderich Kiesewetter Foreign Minister: Michael Roth Interior Minister: Irene Mihalic Finance Minister: Jörg Asmussen Government Spokesperson: Christiane Hoffmann Inspector General of the Bundeswehr: Eberhard Zorn President, Federal Office of Civil Protection: Christoph Unger Intelligence Chief: Gerhard Conrad Red Team (Russia) President: Alexander Gabuev Chief of the General Staff: Franz-Stefan Gady Foreign Minister: Arndt Freytag von Loringhoven International roles NATO Secretary General: Oana Lungescu U.S. Secretary of

Europe's post-war order is facing its most severe test yet in our simulation. While the fictional German cabinet searches for a way out, the Red Team playing the Kremlin has a plan ready — one that targets Germany's role as NATO's logistical hub. In the Baltic Sea, Berlin faces a dilemma, and the ministers and their advisors are forced to take a long, hard look at themselves, as the Chancellor puts it. As Germany in our wargame calls up reservists, improvises accommodation for soldiers, and hospitals confront questions of triage and priority, a core strategic question moves to center stage: What is Russia's actual objective — and who ultimately controls the narrative? As Berlin attempts to reclaim the power of interpretation, the situation shifts once again. Script and Storytelling: Antonia Beckermann, Carolina Drüten Produced by: Marvin Schwarz If you enjoy the podcast, we’d be grateful if you could leave a rating or review. If you have questions or feedback, we’d love to hear from you at [email protected]. The participants of the wargame: Blue Team (Germany) Chancellor: Peter Tauber Defense Minister: Roderich Kiesewetter Foreign Minister: Michael Roth Interior Minister: Irene Mihalic Finance Minister: Jörg Asmussen Government Spokesperson: Christiane Hoffmann Inspector General of the Bundeswehr: Eberhard Zorn President, Federal Office of Civil Protection: Christoph Unger Intelligence Chief: Gerhard Conrad Red Team (Russia) President: Alexander Gabuev Chief of the General Staff: Franz-Stefan Gady Foreign Minister: Arndt Freytag von Loringhoven International roles NATO Secretary General: Oana Lungescu U.S. Secretary of State: Jeff Rathke President of the European Commission: David McAllister Prime Minister of Poland: Bartłomiej Kot Note: With the exception of participants who spoke English in the original wargame, all English-language quotes are voiced by fellow journalists. The translations faithfully reflect the original statements. Imprint: https://www.welt.de/services/article7893735/Impressum.html Privacy Policy: https://www.welt.de/services/article157550705/Datenschutzerklaerung-WELT-DIGITAL.html

What happens when a looming escalation suddenly becomes reality? In our wargame, Russian troops have entered southern Lithuania, blocking the only land corridor connecting the Baltic states to the rest of NATO territory. Berlin responds, seeking to keep the state functioning. But its measures are aimed primarily at maintaining stability at home rather than confronting Moscow. In Episode 3 of "Ernstfall – What If Russia Attacks NATO?" the fictional federal cabinet turns its attention to Washington. Will NATO's most important ally stand with Europe—the only power capable of providing credible security guarantees in such a crisis? At the same time, the Red Team deliberately probes Germany's vulnerabilities: domestic political tensions, economic dependencies, and the country's pivotal role as NATO's logistical hub. The simulation reaches a stage where every decision creates new risks. Script and Storytelling: Antonia Beckermann, Carolina Drüten Produced by: Marvin Schwarz If you enjoy the podcast, we’d be grateful if you could leave a rating or review. If you have questions or feedback, we’d love to hear from you at [email protected]. The participants of the wargame: Blue Team (Germany) Chancellor: Peter Tauber Defense Minister: Roderich Kiesewetter Foreign Minister: Michael Roth Interior Minister: Irene Mihalic Finance Minister: Jörg Asmussen Government Spokesperson: Christiane Hoffmann Inspector General of the Bundeswehr: Eberhard Zorn President, Federal Office of Civil Protection: Christoph Unger Intelligence Chief: Gerhard Conrad Red Team (Russia) President: Alexander Gabuev Chief of the General Staff: Franz-Stefan Gady Foreign Minister: Arndt Freytag von Loringhoven International roles NATO Secretary General: Oana Lungescu U.S. Secretary of State: Jeff Rathke President of the European Commission: David McAllister Prime Minister of Poland: Bartłomiej Kot Note: With the exception of participants who spoke English in the original wargame, all English-language quotes are voiced by fellow journalists. The translations faithfully reflect the original statements. Imprint: https://www.welt.de/services/article7893735/Impressum.html Privacy Policy: https://www.welt.de/services/article157550705/Datenschutzerklaerung-WELT-DIGITAL.html

In Episode 2, Germany’s crisis cabinet tries to move from reacting to taking the initiative. The Blue Team orders military exercises in Lithuania to demonstrate resolve. But the Bundeswehr is still in the process of building up its permanent brigade there. At the same time, the German government runs into another obstacle: Germany’s federal system requires constant coordination between Berlin and the sixteen federal states, slowing decision-making as the crisis accelerates. Within NATO, surveillance flights are stepped up to build a clearer picture of Russian troop movements. Then the situation changes once again. Russian forces cross into Lithuania, and what had begun as a hybrid crisis turns into a military invasion. Whether NATO can respond as one — and whether Germany can project strength abroad while maintaining stability at home — becomes the defining question. Script and Storytelling: Antonia Beckermann, Carolina Drüten Produced by: Marvin Schwarz If you enjoy the podcast, we’d be grateful if you could leave a rating or review. If you have questions or feedback, we’d love to hear from you at [email protected]. The participants of the wargame: Blue Team (Germany) Chancellor: Peter Tauber Defense Minister: Roderich Kiesewetter Foreign Minister: Michael Roth Interior Minister: Irene Mihalic Finance Minister: Jörg Asmussen Government Spokesperson: Christiane Hoffmann Inspector General of the Bundeswehr: Eberhard Zorn President, Federal Office of Civil Protection: Christoph Unger Intelligence Chief: Gerhard Conrad Red Team (Russia) President: Alexander Gabuev Chief of the General Staff: Franz-Stefan Gady Foreign Minister: Arndt Freytag von Loringhoven International roles NATO Secretary General: Oana Lungescu U.S. Secretary of State: Jeff Rathke President of the European Commission: David McAllister Prime Minister of Poland: Bartłomiej Kot Note: With the exception of participants who spoke English in the original wargame, all English-language quotes are voiced by fellow journalists. The translations faithfully reflect the original statements. Imprint: https://www.welt.de/services/article7893735/Impressum.html Privacy Policy: https://www.welt.de/services/article157550705/Datenschutzerklaerung-WELT-DIGITAL.html

Imagine this: It is October 2026. The day has barely begun when Germany’s federal government is confronted with its gravest security crisis in decades. In a fictional scenario, Russia is threatening NATO’s eastern flank while the United States is reluctant to become involved. To understand how Germany would respond under these conditions, WELT, together with the German Wargaming Center at Helmut Schmidt University of the German Armed Forces in Hamburg, conducted a high-level public wargame. We wanted to answer three questions: What happens if Russia attacks a NATO ally? How would Germany respond? And where are the weaknesses in its political decision-making? Germany is Europe’s largest economy, NATO’s logistical backbone on the continent and has pledged to build “the strongest conventional army in Europe”. Its response would shape the alliance’s reaction. Former senior politicians, military leaders and security experts spend a day stepping into the roles of Germany’s federal government and the Kremlin. While governments and armed forces regularly conduct wargames behind closed doors, we decided to make ours public. The project sparked a wide debate in Germany and internationally and is now available in English. In Episode 1, Germany’s crisis cabinet convenes for the first time. Faced with mounting chaos, the Blue Team must determine whether Russian troop movements near Lithuania are merely coercion — or the beginning of something far more dangerous. Script and Storytelling: Antonia Beckermann, Carolina Drüten Producer: Marvin Schwarz If you enjoy the podcast, we’d be grateful if you could leave a rating or review. If you have questions or feedback, we’d love to hear from you at [email protected]. The participants of the wargame: Blue Team (Germany) Chancellor: Peter Tauber Defense Minister: Roderich Kiesewetter Foreign Minister: Michael Roth Interior Minister: Irene Mihalic Finance Minister: Jörg Asmussen Government Spokesperson: Christiane Hoffmann Inspector General of the Bundeswehr: Eberhard Zorn President, Federal Office of Civil Protection: Christoph Unger Intelligence Chief: Gerhard Conrad Red Team (Russia) President: Alexander Gabuev Chief of the General Staff: Franz-Stefan Gady Foreign Minister: Arndt Freytag von Loringhoven International roles NATO Secretary General: Oana Lungescu U.S. Secretary of State: Jeff Rathke President of the European Commission: David McAllister Prime Minister of Poland: Bartłomiej Kot Note: With the exception of participants who spoke English in the original wargame, all English-language quotes are voiced by fellow journalists. The translations faithfully reflect the original statements. Imprint: https://www.welt.de/services/article7893735/Impressum.html Privacy Policy: https://www.welt.de/services/article157550705/Datenschutzerklaerung-WELT-DIGITAL.html

What if Russia attacked NATO? How would Germany respond? And where are our weaknesses? We wanted answers. In a wargame, we simulate an attack on NATO’s eastern flank. Politicians, former military officials, and experts take on the roles of the German government for a day. A second team plays the Kremlin. The wargame triggered an international debate. It's the reason we decided to publish our results in English as well. In this five-part podcast, you'll hear a simulation of a crisis that many European leaders hope will never happen. Script and Storytelling: Antonia Beckermann, Carolina Drüten Production: Marvin Schwarz If you enjoy the podcast, we’d love to see your ratings on the podcast platforms. If you have any questions, suggestions, or feedback, feel free to comment below the episode or email us at [email protected]. Legal Notice: https://www.welt.de/services/article7893735/Impressum.html Privacy Policy: https://www.welt.de/services/article157550705/Datenschutzerklaerung-WELT-DIGITAL.html