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I provide a short update on Money for the Rest of Us and introduce our listener survey. All survey participants will get access to an exclusive podcast episode on my worst investing mistakes and what I learned. Take the Money for the Rest of Us Listener Survey See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this episode, we explore why the income we earn isn't the same as the return. We show how option income strategies work, what their historical returns have been, what drives the return, and what reasonable return expectations are. We show why option income strategies have a positive expected return while sports betting has a negative expected return. Finally, we look at other areas where we confuse income with the total return. Sponsors Money for the Rest of Us Retirement Investing Cohort Delete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% off Our Premium Products Asset Camp Money for the Rest of Us Plus Show Notes Episode slide deck Variance Risk Premia by Peter Carr and Liuren Wu—NYU Cross section of option returns and idiosyncratic stock volatility by Jie Cao and Bing Han—The Journal of Financial Economics The Price of Correlation Risk: Evidence from Equity Options by Joost Driessen, Pascal J. Maenhout, Grigory Vilkov—SSRN Cross-section of option returns and volatility by Amit Goyal and Alessio Saretto—The Journal of Financial Economics The Art of Put Selling: A 10 Year Study by John Marshall, Krag Gregory, Katherine Fogertey—Goldman Sachs Low Stress Bets Related Episodes 557: Don’t Fall in the Dividend Trap 549: Why Catastrophe Bonds Are Yielding 12%, and Should You Invest? 544: Sports Betting Is Not Investing Article: Tail Events and Tail Risk See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Bad actors will use AI to disrupt the financial system, transportation networks, and utilities. We should prepare now for this inevitability. We share how in this episode. We also explain why the bull market in gold will likely continue. Topics covered include: Why the OpenAI agentic AI breach is so disturbingHow do we prepare for cyberattacksWhy gold should be one of the assets we hold apart from the financial systemHow the historical relationship between gold and real interest rates has broken downTo what extent are central banks selling dollars to buy goldHow gold ETF flows influence the gold price Sponsors Get the free guide from NetSuite: Aligning for the Agentic Era: How AI Is Changing Everyday Work Delete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% off Our Premium Products Asset Camp Money for the Rest of Us Plus Show Notes Episode 564 Slide Deck with Charts Gold's Run Isn't Yet Done - Bhanu Baweja - Financial Times Brief independent investigation of agents’ behavior, reasoning and collaboration in the OpenAI / Hugging Face hacking incident Are Central Banks Moving Out of Dollar Assets? - Linda S. Goldberg, Oliver Hannaoui, and Sneha Parthasarathy - Federal Reserve Bank of New York Related Episodes 541: Debasement Fears or Meme Fever? What’s Driving the Gold and Silver Rally 563: Why Interest Rates Keep Rising and What to Do About It See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The national debt exceeds $40 trillion, U.S. long-term Treasury yields are at 19-year highs, the U.S. Treasury Department is intervening in currency and bond markets. We unpack it all in this episode and show you how to position your investment portfolio to lock in higher yields and protect yourself from falling bond prices. Sponsors Try NetSuite for Free Delete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% off Our Premium Products Asset Camp Money for the Rest of Us Plus Show Notes Episode 563 Slide Deck Debt to the Penny - U.S. Treasury Historical debt and budget tables - U.S. White House Average U.S. national debt interest rate - U.S. Treasury Treasury Announces Increased Sizes of Nominal Long-End Liquidity Support Buybacks Beginning September 9 - U.S Treasury America’s Risky Debt: What Markets See That Policymakers Don’t - Hanno Lustig Related Episodes 525: No More AAA – What the U.S. Debt Downgrade Means for Investors 463: How to Lock in Higher Yields 464: More Ways to Lock in Higher Yields See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

What are the steps to simplify your portfolio, given that it is likely spread across multiple accounts? We focus particularly on retirees, who have to weigh additional considerations like withdrawals, Roth conversions, and required minimum distributions. We also explore which areas of the stock and bond markets are attractive right now as you seek to simplify and/or rebalance your portfolio. Sponsors Try NetSuite for Free Delete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% off Show Notes and Related Content A Complete Guide to Investing in I Bonds and TIPS (2026) 550: Asset Location: Where You Invest, Where You Live, What You Can Access Free Investment Strategy Report Insiders Guide Email Newsletter Get our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletter Our Premium Products Asset Camp Money for the Rest of Us Plus See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

We explore the expected size of AI-related debt, which vehicles hold it, what could go wrong, and how to protect yourself. Topics covered include: How AI capex boom compares to other large booms and bustsWhat fixed income vehicles hold AI-linked debtWhat mechanisms are being used to transfer AI-debt risk.How circular finance is contributing to the AI infrastructure buildoutWhat could go wrong with the AI infrastructure buildout that could lead to losses on AI-related debtHow to tell what exposure you have to AI debt Sponsors Delete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% off NetSuite  Insiders Guide Email Newsletter Get our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletter Our Premium Products Asset Camp Money for the Rest of Us Plus Show Notes AI debt slide deck used for episode RBC Weighs $2 Billion Risk Transfer to Hedge Data Center-Linked Loans by Esteban Duarte and Paula Sambo—Bloomberg Hyperscalers Tap External Financing as AI Capex Outruns Cash Flow—FactSet Insight What History Tells Us About The AI Investment Boom by Larry Swedroe—Financial Advisor Goldman Sachs Warns on AI’s Debt Tsunami — Is This the End of the AI Boom? by Rich Duprey—Yahoo! Finance Progress and peril by Pablo Hernández de Cos—BIS The Opportunities and Risks AI Presents for the Economy and Financial System by Governor Lisa D. Cook—The Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report by The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System—The Federal Reserve Financing the AI infrastructure boom: on- and off-balance sheet borrowing by Egemen Eren, Ingomar Krohn and Karamfil Todorov—BIS How AI debt financing impacts duration supply and interest rates by Hugo De Vere, Srini Ramaswamy and Seth Searls—Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas US Life Insurers Held $807 Billion of Hard-to-Sell Credit by Alexandre Rajbhandari—Bloomberg Insurers are funding AI infrastructure – NAIC wants to know if the ratings hold up by Paul Lucas—Insurance Business US Corporate Bonds Statistics—sifma See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

How inflation numbers are manipulated to appear lower. How to change your mindset about inflation to get ahead of it. Topics covered include: How Inflation (PCE) Calculations Are ChangingWhy the CPE Changes Are SuspiciousThe Biggest Changes Ever to Inflation CalculationsWhat Causes InflationAI Buildout Is Boosting InflationHow Rising Income Can Overcome InflationInflation Is Currency DebasementMost Things Get Cheaper and Better Over TimePersonal Inflation Rate and RetirementWe Can Beat Inflation by Improving Our SkillsInflation Manipulation vs Inflation FabricationHow to Outsmart Inflation Sponsors Delete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% off NetSuite  Retirement Investing Webinar and Portfolio Cohort Insiders Guide Email Newsletter Get our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletter Our Premium Products Asset Camp Money for the Rest of Us Plus Show Notes Preview of the 2026 Annual Update of the National Economic Accounts—BEA The Inflation Outlook by Governor Stephen I. Miran—U.S. Federal Reserve Toward A More Accurate Measure Of The Cost Of Living by The Advisory Commission To Study The Consumer Price Index —SSA A Complete Guide to Understanding and Protecting Against Inflation by David Stein—Money for the Rest of Us Live Retirement Portfolio Cohort—Money for the Rest of Us Related Episodes 475: Inflation’s Illusion: Debunking the Normalcy of Currency Debasement 429: Which Inflation Protection Strategies Worked and Which Didn’t?  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

David shares nine lessons a listener followed to become a millionaire. Topics covered include: The benefit of underspending on housingWhat rate of return and how much would you need to save to grow a portfolio to one million dollarsWhy historical studies of the S&P 500 returns are misleadingDavid's recent portfolio mistake Sponsors Delete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% off NetSuite  Retirement Investing Webinar and Portfolio Cohort Insiders Guide Email Newsletter Get our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletter Our Premium Products Asset Camp Money for the Rest of Us Plus Related Episodes 498: What I Learned Investing in the Past Decade 454: How To Invest – Ten Rules of Thumb for Individual Investors See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are all going public. Why now? And what will their weight be in index funds? What other U.S. ETF options are there if you don't want to have such a high concentration in stocks tied to AI. And finally, if you do buy SpaceX, what would need to happen to earn a reasonable return on your investment? Sponsors Delete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% off NetSuite  Retirement Investing Webinar and Portfolio Cohort Insiders Guide Email Newsletter Get our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletter Our Premium Products Asset Camp Money for the Rest of Us Plus Show Notes Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Form S-1 Registration Statment Under the Securities Act of 1933—SEC Elon Musk Is Dropping a Boulder in a Kiddie Pool by Matteo Wong—The Atlantic Passive Aggressive: The Risks of Passive Investing Dominance by Chris Brightman and Campbell R. Harvey—SSRN Passive Investing and Market Quality by Philipp Höfler, Christian Schlag, and Maik Schmeling—SSRN Investments Mentioned iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) Tema S&P 500 Historical Weight ETF Strategy (DSPY) Defiance Large Cap ex-Mag 7 (XMAG) Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP) Invesco FTSE RAFI US 1000 (PRF) See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

We explore the free dividend fallacy and how it applies to option income strategies. We break down the return drivers of covered call ETFs and examine the long-term performance record and volatility. Finally, we explain why it's better to own a single stock than a single-stock covered call ETF, such as MSTY, NVDY, or TSLY, offered by YieldMax. Show Notes The Dividend Disconnect - Samuel M. Hartzmark and David H. Solomon Sam Hartzmark on Dividends - Meb Faber Research The New American Hustle: Dividends Over Day Jobs - Denitsa Tsekova and Vildana Hajric - Bloomberg Covered Calls Uncovered - Roni Israelov and Lars N. Nielsen - Financial Analysts Journal Volatility Risk Premiums Embedded in Individual Equity Options: Some New Insights - Nikunj Kapadia and Gurdip singh Bakshi Sponsors Take the Money for the Rest of Us book quiz to see which investing book is best for you. Delete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% off Investment Mentioned Invesco S&P 500 BuyWrite ETF (PBP) JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI) WisdomTree Equity Premium Income Fund (WTPI) YieldMax TSLA Option Income Strategy ETF (TSLY) Tesla (TSLA) YieldMax NVDA Option Income Strategy ETF (NVDY) NVIDIA (NVDA ) YieldMax MSTR Option Income Strategy ETF (MSTY) Strategy (MSTR) Related Episodes 471: Unlocking Income—A Comprehensive Guide to Investing in Covered Call ETFs 466: Does Dividend Investing Still Work? See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Why we have to navigate investing, business, and life with a compass rather than a GPS. David also provides an update on what he has learned from hosting live portfolio cohorts and letting AI analyze his portfolio trades over the past 12 years. Sponsors Square - Get up to $200 in hardware Delete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% off Insiders Guide Email Newsletter Get our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletter Our Premium Products Asset Camp Money for the Rest of Us Plus Show Notes Almost Reckless by Amy Smilovic—Penguin Random House Related Episodes 555: Five Practices That Have Shaped My Career 127: Investing Is Wayfinding See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

I share five business practices that have carried me through asset bubbles, financial crises, business pivots, and now the rise of AI. Topics covered include: Recommended note-taking app and practicesRecommended periodicalsHow to get better ideasWhy we need to understand the probabilities when pursuing a new courseThe latest insights on AI, prediction markets, and other topics Sponsors Square - Get up to $200 in hardware Delete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% off Live Portfolio Cohort - May 2026 Insiders Guide Email Newsletter Get our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletter Our Premium Products Asset Camp Money for the Rest of Us Plus Show Notes Researchers Asked LLMs for Strategic Advice. They Got “Trendslop” in Return. By Angelo Romasanta, Llewellyn D.W. Thomas and Natalia Levina—Harvard Business Review Paul Kedrosky Gregor Macdonald - Cold Eye Earth Prediction Market Accuracy: Crowd Wisdom or Informed Minority? By Roberto Gomez Cram, Yunhan Guo, Theis Ingerslev Jensen, and Howard Kung U.S. Soldier Charged With Using Classified Information To Profit From Prediction Market Bets—Office of Public Affairs, U.S. Department of Justice 64% of business books are profitable. That’s the bottom line from our study of Business Book ROI.—Josh Bernoff Libsyn Statistics, visualized—Livewire Labs The Big Bang: A.I. Has Created a Code Overload By Mike Isaac and Erin Griffith—The New York Times High earners race ahead on AI as workplace divide widens By Madhumita Murgia and John Burn-Murdoch—Financial Times Related Episodes 496: Are You Taking Enough Aspirational Risk? 535: Six Principles for Thriving Under Uncertainty and How Big Tech Is Doing the Opposite See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Please attend our live webinar on portfolio construction and rebalancing scheduled for Thursday, April 30th, at 12PM Eastern, 9AM Pacific time. I will cover the five steps to constructing and rebalancing a portfolio. I will also answer your questions. You can sign up for this special webinar at https://moneyfortherestofus.com/webinar/ See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Why portfolio construction is messy, personal, and never perfect. We compare the pros and cons of several portfolio strategies, including target-date funds, risk parity, and role-based portfolios. We conclude with three AI-related fallacies that will help us better navigate the current moment. Sponsors Square - Get up to $200 in hardware Delete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% off Live Portfolio Cohort - May 2026 Insiders Guide Email Newsletter Get our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletter Our Premium Products Asset Camp Money for the Rest of Us Plus Show Notes Money for the Rest of Us Live Portfolio Cohorts Why Everything Suddenly Is ‘Perfect’ by Paula Marantz Cohen—The Wall Street Journal Your Perfect Portfolio by Cullen Roche—Pan MacMillan My Core Investment Values by Peter Lazaroff—Peter Lazaroff Show Us Your Portfolio: Jared Dillian—Excess Returns: An Investing Podcast The dystopian fantasy of uselessness by Stephen Cane—The Financial Times Investments Mentioned State Street Bridgewater All Weather ETF (ALLW) RPAR Risk Parity ETF (RPAR) AQR Multi-Asset Fund (AQRIX) Related Episodes 491: The Five Layers of Investing 306: Three Approaches to Asset Allocation See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this mini episode, I share some examples of how I am using Claude Cowork and other tools to boost my productivity and build investment portfolio analysis tools. I also share more details on the live portfolio cohorts we will be holding next month. You can learn more about our live portfolio cohorts here. Show Notes I Saw Something New in San Francisco - Ezra Klein - New York Times See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.