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Israel's election appears to have ended in deadlock. Can Netanyahu survive, and how much can Trump tip the scale?Dan Perry, former Associated Press lead editor for the Middle East and author of the Substack Ask Questions Later, joins Matt Robison from Israel to break down the 2026 Israeli election results: who can form a government, why the Arab parties hold the key, and what it means for the U.S.Dan's take, in this conversation:- "Netanyahu lost his majority." Dan says the opposition's win is bigger than anything it has known since 1973, if you count the Arab parties- Every non-Likud victory in Israel has depended on Arab parties, he argues, and Eisenkot is now stuck between promises he made to voters- Netanyahu "would make a deal with Lucifer if it gave him another week in power," Dan says, so no outcome can be ruled out- The scenario Dan finds most interesting: Trump pressuring the Israeli parties into a unity government, with Netanyahu as foreign minister instead of prime minister- Dan says Trump is "projecting" a big, quick attack on Iran after the U.S. midterms, and asks why wait- Arab turnout looks like it may have exceeded Jewish turnout for the first time, which is why the Arab parties could win up to 19 seats, Dan says- If Trump turned on Israel, he'd lose conservative Jewish donors but please isolationist MAGA voters, Dan argues- Matt's closing plea to Democrats on Israel, Trump and the midtermsWhere the count stood during the live: with more than 85% of votes counted, viewers cited Netanyahu's bloc at 53 seats and the opposition plus Arab parties at 67 (61 are needed to govern).CHAPTERS0:00 Israeli election results: where does the count stand?0:50 Netanyahu's bloc vs. the opposition: the numbers1:50 Why Arab parties decide Israeli elections2:15 Eisenkot's dilemma: which promise breaks?3:45 Arab citizens in Israel: votes, courts and turnout6:15 Who blinks? Eisenkot's conditions for a partner8:00 How a minority government works8:40 Trump's thumb on the scale: Iran war or peace plan?10:50 Viewer comments and the West Bank question13:00 Updated count: 53 seats vs. 6714:00 Trump, Congress and the U.S. midterms16:30 Trump, Netanyahu and autocrats helping each other17:45 The West Bank after the election19:00 What happens to Netanyahu and the far right?20:30 How Trump could force a unity deal22:00 Why Trump ignores voters: tariffs and the principal-agent problem24:15 Would Trump turn on Israel? American Jews and MAGA26:00 Matt's closing: Democrats, Israel and the midterms31:45 Viewer pushback and Matt's responseDan Perry's Substack, Ask Questions Later: [LINK]Subscribe to Worth Knowing with Matt Robison: https://worthknowing.substack.comRecorded live on Substack on Oct. 28, 2026. Seat counts changed as votes were counted.#Israel #Netanyahu #IsraelElection

If Democrats win Congress, what can they actually do about a lawless president, and does accountability really deter the next one?Former federal prosecutor Glenn Kirschner (host of Justice Matters) joins Matt Robison to walk through what is still chargeable, what a pardon can't reach, and what has to hold between now and the election to make any of it possible.In this conversation, Glenn argues:- The Supreme Court's immunity ruling doesn't cover what Trump did as a private citizen, so the classified documents and January 6 cases can be re-indicted on day one of a new Justice Department- Pardons don't wipe away state bar discipline or state prosecutions, and corruptly delivered pardons can be challenged in court- Deterrence works, and accountability has been blown before, in 1974 and again after January 6- Congressional investigations can build the record that prosecutors need- Blue-state election officials are ready for federal interferenceMatt adds the congressional side: hearings as a ledger of who got what, a path to state cases, and a public record.CHAPTERS0:00 Can Trump be held accountable at all?1:40 What is still prosecutable after the Supreme Court?5:00 Self-pardons, resignation deals and fighting corrupt pardons9:00 Are congressional hearings worth it if he pardons everyone?13:30 Can a pardoned lawyer still be disbarred? State prosecutions19:00 A RICO-style approach: rolling up the lower levels20:30 Does deterrence actually work?23:45 Why "bygones be bygones" fails26:00 The short 2027 window for investigations28:30 If you accept a pardon, can you still plead the Fifth?30:30 What prosecutors owe victims31:45 Musk, Kushner and the quasi-governmental players33:45 Who is preparing prosecution-ready cases for day one?36:45 Election protection: Alaska, California ballots and threats to officials38:30 Why Glenn thinks the attacks will fail41:30 Viewer questions44:45 Make a voting planFollow Glenn Kirschner: https://glennkirschner.substack.comSubscribe to Worth Knowing with Matt Robison: https://worthknowing.substack.comRecorded live on Substack on Oct. 27, 2026.#Accountability #Midterms #GlennKirschner

Could the blue wave be a mirage? Democratic strategist Matt Robison and Republican strategist Matt Wylie break down the midterm polls, the Senate map and the fake pollster scandal.Political Rehab, where PTI meets The Daily Show: a Democrat and a Republican who get along, unpacking the week in politics.In The Battlefield, we ask whether the polls are overstating Democrats or understating them. A fake pollster (Wedgewood) gets caught, and we look at what pollsters may be missing, from polling error to recalled-vote weighting (G. Elliott Morris). Then the Senate races that decide control: Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Alaska, Texas, Maine and South Carolina, plus Missouri's 2nd District and what Republican campaigns' own behavior says about their numbers. Matt Wylie gives his prediction: a blue ripple, not a wave.Also in the rundown: Vivek Ramaswamy's attack ad on Amy Acton, Trump lashing out at reporters, Trump's favors to Putin, and why the White House keeps motivating Democrats.TIMESTAMPS0:00 Preview and show open1:05 Fake pollster Wedgewood caught, FCC warns broadcasters on polls3:57 Ramaswamy's attack ad on Amy Acton8:07 Trump rages at reporters10:59 Trump's favors to Putin14:30 Why the White House keeps motivating Democrats18:43 The Battlefield: could the blue wave be a mirage?19:18 Warning signs for Republicans in Missouri and Kansas23:06 South Carolina Senate race moves to Lean Republican24:30 The polling math: weighting, polling error, recalled vote29:13 Wylie's verdict: a ripple, not a wave30:21 The scoreboard: Trump approval, generic ballot, prediction markets, Senate math34:25 Dose of Hope: Wylie on campaign ads and mailers37:05 Dose of Hope: a record-setting Mars roverRead Worth Knowing with Matt Robison: https://worthknowing.substack.comSubscribe: https://worthknowing.substack.com/subscribe#BlueWave #Midterms2026 #Polls #PoliticalRehab #Senate #MattRobison #MattWylie

If Trump contests the midterms, will the press fail us? Mark Jacob, former Chicago Tribune and Chicago Sun-Times editor, on how newsrooms can avoid just repeating whatever gets said first.Election protection experts say the greatest threat to the midterms comes after Election Day, when false claims, pressure on election officials and misleading headlines can shape whether the public accepts the results. In this Worth Knowing live stream, I talk with Mark Jacob, a former Chicago Tribune metro editor and Chicago Sun-Times Sunday editor, about what the press is doing right, where it could fail, and what you can do to prepare.In this conversation:- Why "Trump says" headlines are, in Jacob's words, "empty calories"- Jacob's fix for live TV: cut away at the first false claim, go to a panel of experts, and add real-time corrections on screen- The 2000 Brooks Brothers riot, and Jacob's argument connecting it to later Supreme Court decisions- Why the New York Times invited Jacob to criticize its coverage on video, and what he says its editor told him about the word "lie"- Jacob's scoring of Trump against the American Psychiatric Association's 14 warning signs of mental illness (an opinion exercise, not a clinical diagnosis)- Media capture: Semafor reported that CBS News editor-in-chief Bari Weiss pushed CBS journalists to pursue angles on Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed and the Muslim Brotherhood. CBS legal correspondent Jan Crawford deleted a post about El-Sayed and apologized for violating CBS News standards.CHAPTERS00:00 The media's test after the midterms02:00 What worries Mark Jacob most: repeating whatever Trump says first04:30 How false claims put pressure on election officials06:00 Prebuttals: getting ahead of election lies07:00 The Brooks Brothers riot and the 2000 Florida recount08:30 Why Jacob isn't optimistic: January 6 and what comes next10:00 What you can do now: election protection11:30 Live press conferences: cut away at the first lie14:00 Social media, Russia and the French riots16:00 The Talarico flu rumor, and Elon Musk's role19:30 From the Brooks Brothers riot to Citizens United: Jacob's argument21:30 Musk, federal data and voter-roll demands23:00 The New York Times invites Jacob to "Sound Off"25:30 "Improvisational departure" and other Times euphemisms27:30 Is it a lie? Jacob's libel-standard test30:00 The Times editor's defense, and why it won't say "dictatorship"31:30 The hurricane metaphor35:30 Trump and the 14 warning signs of mental illness37:30 Jacob's scorecard: seven yes, six no, one maybe40:00 Do voters already know, and does it still matter?43:30 Make a voting plan45:30 Bari Weiss, CBS and Jan Crawford's deleted post47:30 What "media capture" means: the Ellisons, Musk, Bezos and others50:00 Support independent mediaSubscribe to Worth Knowing with Matt Robison for my newsletter and analysis: https://worthknowing.substack.comPaid subscribers get my full Impact Guide, with the most effective techniques for donating, volunteering and persuading others.Subscribe to this channel for new episodes.#Midterms2026 #ElectionProtection #Trump #Media #WorthKnowing

Republicans are trying to buy the midterms with a $1 billion war chest. Can they spend their way out of midterm disaster? Matt Robison (Democratic insider) and Matt Wylie (Republican consultant) break down the Republican midterm strategy, the cash behind it, and the panic moves coming out of the White House, then run the numbers on the House and Senate.Subscribe to Worth Knowing for more midterm analysis: https://worthknowing.substack.comGet new episodes and articles by email: https://worthknowing.substack.com/subscribeIN THIS EPISODE- Republican groups hold about $1 billion in cash vs. about $579 million for Democrats (AP), and Elon Musk has put in at least $276 million since July- How Fox News, Trump rallies and Republican ads are all aimed at the same small group of Republican voters- Susie Wiles, a new press secretary and the rally trail: panic moves 19 days out- Trump's Russian diesel deal and the Starshield restriction on Ukraine- Reuters' nine ways the administration could interfere with the midterms, and the "rogue clerk" scenario- The Battlefield: why Republicans are writing off some House seats, where the money is going in the Senate, and why late-deciding voters may not be enough- Dose of Hope: voters are tired of excuses, plus Michael J. Fox gets promotedCHAPTERS0:00 Can Republicans buy their way out?1:00 Money bomb: $1 billion in Republican cash and Musk's $276 million4:20 Base voters and the Fox News attack machine7:10 Wheels off: Wiles, Zacharia and Trump's rallies10:10 Putin's payday: the Russian diesel deal and Starshield13:45 Election hijack: Reuters' nine scenarios17:35 The Battlefield18:15 Republicans cut off two House incumbents19:30 South Carolina, Alaska and where the money is going21:35 The numbers: how Republicans keep the Senate close26:10 Do late-deciding voters add up?30:55 Dose of Hope: voters are tired of excuses33:50 Dose of Hope: Michael J. Fox and Alex P. KeatonPolitical Rehab is a weekly show where a Democratic insider and a Republican insider break down the week in politics and get along while doing it.#Midterms2026 #MidtermElections #Republicans #PoliticalRehab #ElonMusk #Senate #Trump

If Republicans get wiped out in the midterms, will they finally break with Trump? An anti-Trump Republican campaign strategist answers, axplains why a cornered Trump could be even more dangerous for the next two years. ALSO, what will happen to Democrats if they win majorities by winning in red territory? Will the party civil war get bigger, or will they row in the same direction?Matt Wylie, Republican political consultant and co-host of Political Rehab, and Cliff Schecter of Blue Amp Media, former Biden ad writer and communications strategist, join Matt Robison, former three-time congressional Chief of Staff, to look past Election Day at both parties.In this episode:Why a narrow Democratic win could be spun as a Republican victoryMarco Rubio’s attempt to fuse traditional conservatism with Trump’s politics of dominance, and why Andrew Sullivan called it “nihilist”How anti-Trump Republicans plan to take their party back, and why it won’t happen until late 2027Why impeaching Trump first could backfire on DemocratsIs there really a progressive surge? What the primary data showsWhat a Democratic majority built on red-state wins means for the party, and “the Bloc” threatening Hakeem JeffriesLightning round: will Democrats end the filibuster, expand the Supreme Court, impeach Trump a third time? Plus each guest’s pick for the 2028 nomineesChapters00:00 Will Republicans finally dump Trump?01:50 Matt Wylie: no lane while Trump is in the White House02:45 Why a narrow Democratic win could be spun as a GOP victory04:45 Cliff Schecter: “a 50-year storm”08:15 Marco Rubio’s “Frankenstein” Republican Party09:45 How anti-Trump Republicans plan to retake the party12:45 Why impeaching Trump first could backfire15:15 How do you criticize Trump and survive as a Republican?17:45 Are anti-Trump Republicans complicit?21:00 Is there really a progressive surge?23:00 What a red-state Democratic majority means for the party28:40 “The Bloc” and the fight over Speaker Jeffries32:40 What could unite Democrats34:00 Lightning round: what will Democratic majorities do?42:40 Predictions: the 2028 nomineesPolitical Rehab, Midterm HQ, and the Impact Guide, a plain-English handbook for effective political giving, volunteering and persuasion, are all at Worth Knowing with Matt Robison:https://worthknowing.substack.com#Midterms2026 #Republicans #Trump

Republicans are spending hundreds of millions to save the 2026 midterms — so why are they suddenly fighting for states they should win easily? Democrat Matt Robison and Republican strategist Matt Wylie break down why Kansas is now a Senate toss-up, Trump is campaigning in deep-red states, Republican voters are having second thoughts, and GOP insiders are already pointing fingers before Election Day. How much worse can it get?Get Matt's weekly analysis at Worth Knowing with Matt Robison: https://worthknowing.substack.comSubscribe free: https://worthknowing.substack.com/subscribeIn this episode:The Republican money pit: nearly $600 million in September congressional advertising, the $122 million Texas Senate fight, and why GOP spending isn't delivering better resultsBarack Obama returns to campaign for Democrats, Kamala Harris makes selective appearances, and Joe Biden stays on the sidelinesTrump's surprising campaign stops in Alabama, Nebraska, and Texas — and what they reveal about Republican concernsCan voters trust the polls? Why the 2026 midterm numbers may be telling Republicans exactly what they fearThe Republican blame game begins: Trump, his campaign advisers, Ken Paxton, Steve Bannon, and who's responsible if Republicans get crushedThe Battlefield: Kansas becomes a Senate toss-up, prominent Republicans back a Democrat, and the fight moves into traditionally Republican territoryNew polling finds one in four 2024 Trump voters regrets their vote, including roughly a third of non-MAGA RepublicansThe 2026 election scoreboard: competitive races in Kansas, Ohio, Iowa, Nebraska, Alaska, and North Carolina, plus a Democratic generic-ballot advantageDose of Hope: Pope Leo, the Chicago White Sox, AI consciousness, and the 2026 Nobel Prizes💬 If Republicans are fighting to hold Kansas, how much worse could November get for the GOP?Chapters:0:00 Cold open and rundown1:02 The Republican money pit4:54 Obama returns to campaign for Democrats7:14 Why is Trump campaigning in red states?11:00 Can we trust the polls?14:29 The Republican blame game begins17:22 The Battlefield: Republicans fight for red states18:22 Could Republicans actually lose Kansas?22:28 One in four Trump voters regrets their vote27:06 The 2026 midterm scoreboard30:11 Dose of Hope: The Pope, AI, and the White Sox32:05 Dose of Hope: The Nobel Prizes and scientific breakthroughsRead Matt's latest election analysis and follow the changing 2026 midterm map at Worth Knowing: https://worthknowing.substack.com#Midterms2026 #Trump #Republicans #PoliticalRehab #Election2026 #KansasSenate #Congress #Obama

Which of Trump's threats to the midterms are real, which are the most dangerous, and what happens if the worst comes true? Two democracy experts on the front lines answer, and both say the biggest danger may come after the polls close.Colin Cole, Director of Policy, Outreach and Communications at More Equitable Democracy and host of the award-winning podcast The Future of Our Former Democracy, joins from Brazil. He explains why chaos itself is the strategy, how voter purges fall hardest on voters with Asian American and Latino surnames, what the Supreme Court's Callais decision and mid-decade gerrymandering have done to Black representation, and how to talk about threats without feeding the despair that keeps people home.Virginia Kase Solomón, President and CEO of Common Cause, describes her organization's tabletop exercises for the period between Election Day and January, why federal ballot seizures could break the chain of custody and delay certification, where Common Cause's lawsuits stand on ICE at the polls and on intimidation of ICE observers, and exactly what to do if ICE shows up at your polling place.Chapters00:00 Which of Trump's election threats are real?03:00 Colin Cole: why chaos is the real danger05:50 What Australia, Germany and Brazil do differently08:10 Voter purges, the SAVE database and who gets flagged12:50 Louisiana v. Callais and mid-decade gerrymandering17:05 Does talking about voter intimidation help Trump?21:20 If the worst happens: the way forward27:30 Colin's must-do: end winner-take-all elections29:20 Virginia Kase Solomón joins30:00 Her two biggest fears35:20 Ballot seizures and the certification deadline38:00 Common Cause's lawsuits: an update41:00 What to do if ICE shows up at your polling place43:50 How to volunteer for election protection46:20 If the worst happens: lawsuits, protests, strikes53:50 Virginia's must-do: the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act and the Freedom to Vote Act57:00 "Democracy is a verb"If you see voter intimidation, including ICE at a polling place, call the Election Protection hotline. Don't escalate; document what you see.866-OUR-VOTE (866-687-8683)En español: 888-VE-Y-VOTA (888-839-8682)Multilingual hotlines, including Asian languages and Haitian Creole: https://www.commoncause.orgVolunteer for election protection: https://protectthevote.netGuests:Common Cause: https://www.commoncause.orgMore Equitable Democracy: https://www.equitabledemocracy.orgThe Future of Our Former Democracy: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-future-of-our-former-democracy/id1767428498I'm writing about this conversation on Substack this week, and the Impact Guide, my plain-English handbook for effective political giving and volunteering, is out now:https://worthknowing.substack.com#Midterms2026 #VotingRights #ElectionProtection

Republicans stayed in Washington an extra week to give vulnerable senators something to run on, then left with almost nothing. The stock trading ban failed, the data center bill failed, and the Senate did nothing about Trump's $810 million pocket rescission. Republican strategist Matt Wylie and Democrat Matt Robison break down a week of politicians chasing obsessions voters don't care about, a month before the 2026 midterms.This week, Trump's grand conspiracy probe collapses and Sen. Eric Schmitt mixes up the Atlanta Hawks and the Iowa Hawkeyes while questioning Jack Smith. Pete Hegseth cuts 20% of generals and admirals and goes after "wokeness" in the middle of a war. The Republican immigration agenda keeps losing ground. And a new group of progressive House Democrats calling itself "the Bloc" is threatening Hakeem Jeffries before the votes are even counted.In the Battlefield: Trump's rally schedule includes deep-red states, a Democrat runs an ad using Ronald Reagan's voice in a toss-up Virginia district, and more than 60 Democrats sign a "capitalists, not socialists" pledge. Our Dose of Hope ends in orbit with SpaceX Starship.📬 Read Matt's analysis on whether Democrats can trust the polls, plus the weekly Midterm HQ: https://worthknowing.substack.com🔔 Subscribe free to Worth Knowing with Matt Robison: https://worthknowing.substack.com/subscribe⏱️ Chapters0:00 Intro1:00 The grand conspiracy collapses: Jack Smith, Schmitt's Hawks/Hawkeyes gaffe4:00 Senate Republicans go home empty-handed7:00 Hegseth's 20% cut and the war on "wokeness"9:15 Trump wrecks the GOP's immigration advantage12:00 "The Bloc": an open letter to my own party15:45 The Battlefield: Trump campaigns in deep-red states17:30 A Democrat runs Ronald Reagan's voice in VA-0219:15 "Capitalists, not socialists" and the Pappas–Sununu race21:00 Scoreboard: a dead cat bounce for the GOP25:45 Dose of Hope: AI, Fat Bear Week and SpaceX StarshipPolitical Rehab is a weekly show where a Republican strategist and a Democratic former congressional chief of staff talk about politics with the spin left out.#Midterms2026 #Republicans #Democrats #PoliticalRehab #JackSmith #EricSchmitt #PeteHegseth #Immigration #HakeemJeffries #Starship

What happens if Republicans get crushed in November? Political scientist Seth Masket joins me to game out where the GOP goes after a midterm wipeout, and where it could take the rest of us.The polls suggest a blue wave is building, and Republicans have started putting a little distance between themselves and an unpopular president. But Seth's research shows that Democrats over-correct after they lose, while Republicans under-correct, and lately some deny the loss happened at all. So does a big defeat finally break Trump's hold on the party, or do Republicans end up needing him even more?In this episode:The one time Trump's favorability with Republicans actually dropped. It wasn't January 6th or his conviction.Why the window for Republicans to criticize Trump closes soon after November 3rdA Trump endorsement was worth about 16 points in 2022 GOP primariesIs Trump a "Giffen good" for Republican politicians? Seth grades my theory live.Three reasons Republicans stay loyal: primaries, political violence, and policyThe Nikki Haley third of the party that is waiting for Trump to leave the stageCould Rubio or Vance hold together both MAGA voters and traditional Republicans?What Democrats are learning, or not learning, from 2024Why corruption could be Democrats' strongest issue once they have subpoena powerOur midterm predictions: CO-8 and MO-2Seth Masket is a political scientist at the University of Denver and the author of The Elephants in the Room and Learning from Loss.📬 Subscribe to Seth's Substack: smotus.substack.com🎥 Get livestreams, the weekly Political Rehab show, and Midterm HQ at Worth Knowing: worthknowing.substack.comCHAPTERS00:00 What if Republicans get crushed in November?01:40 How each party handles losing04:00 Seth's 2020 prediction, revisited05:10 The only time Trump lost GOP support08:10 Why Republicans' break with Trump won't last10:15 Money, votes, press: how Trump controls the party12:55 "Not while Trump is alive": the 16-point endorsement14:15 "If Trump won your district by 10, you're probably losing"15:10 Is Trump a Giffen good?18:00 Three reasons Republicans stay loyal to Trump20:15 The Haley voters waiting for Trump to exit21:50 Can Rubio or Vance thread the needle?25:00 What lessons are Democrats learning?30:30 Change elections and the demand for fighters33:00 Why voters keep throwing out the party in power34:50 Corruption as the post-midterm message38:55 Midterm predictions: CO-8 and MO-2#Midterms2026 #Trump #RepublicanParty

Republicans are abandoning Trump over the Iran war and gas prices — six weeks before the 2026 midterms, is it too late? Democrat Matt Robison and Republican strategist Matt Wylie break down GOP candidates scrubbing Trump from their websites and breaking with him on the Iran war, Trump's UN speech, Xi Jinping's state visit, the Trump TV flop, the AI arms race, and why the 2026 midterm map is collapsing for Republicans.Get Matt's weekly analysis at Worth Knowing with Matt Robison: https://worthknowing.substack.comSubscribe free: https://worthknowing.substack.com/subscribeIn this episode:- Salazar, Rogers and Donalds put distance between themselves and Trump — and why a break this late is too little, too late (lessons from the 2010 ACA vote)- Trump's UN speech: Iran, Venezuela, Cuba and the Greenland deal- Xi Jinping's state visit, affordability, and the U.S.-China AI race- Trump TV launches, and a Trump-appointed judge restores press access- The AI Force, "super intelligence," and the preparedness paradox- The Battlefield: Susan Collins' scandal, warning lights in Florida and Iowa, a D+8.5 generic ballot, and $110 million in GOP ad bookings in Trump +10 districts- Dose of Hope: Bryson DeChambeau grows the game, and from Aristotle's school to the first gene therapy for Sanfilippo syndromeChapters:0:00 Cold open and rundown0:58 Republicans abandon ship3:52 UN Fight Club6:05 Xi Jinping's state visit9:03 Trump TV flops11:25 The AI arms race14:15 The Battlefield: the GOP map collapses25:00 Dose of Hope: Bryson DeChambeau27:02 Dose of Hope: Aristotle to gene therapyRead Matt's deep dive on Susan Collins this Saturday, plus his evidence-based guide to volunteering effectively: https://worthknowing.substack.com#Midterms2026 #Trump #Republicans #PoliticalRehab #Election2026 #Congress #IranWar #AI

Bill Scher of the Washington Monthly joins Matt Robison to argue about the three stories driving the 2026 midterms: what campaign spending actually reveals about the battlefield, whether the Supreme Court is breaking the republic or quietly saving it, and what happens when the White House bans three news organizations and the networks respond by turning the cameras off. Republicans have booked more than $110 million in ads since August 1 in House districts Trump won by double digits — while cutting money out of Senate races they trail by eight points. Bill reads that as a party bracing for a blue wave. Matt argues most published spending numbers are misleading until you know whether the money is candidate money or super PAC money, because candidate dollars buy roughly three times the airtime.Bill Scher, “If You Don't Like Polls, Follow the Money” — https://washingtonmonthly.com/2026/09/22/if-you-dont-like-polls-follow-the-money/Bill Scher, “The Supreme Court Still Works as the Founders Intended” — https://washingtonmonthly.com/2026/09/18/supreme-court-founders-lifetime-appointments/Bill Scher, “Will It Be a Blue Wave?” — https://washingtonmonthly.com/2026/09/09/will-it-be-a-blue-wave/Matt Robison, “Eight Weeks of Money Headlines Are Coming. Here's How to Read Them.” — https://worthknowing.substack.com/p/eight-weeks-of-money-headlines-areMatt Robison, “The Election You Can't See” — https://worthknowing.substack.com/p/the-election-you-cant-seeMatt Robison, “Trump Is Breaking the Constitution. The Supreme Court Is Breaking the Republic.” — https://worthknowing.substack.com/p/trump-is-breaking-the-constitutionSubscribe to Worth Knowing with Matt Robison — https://worthknowing.substack.comCHAPTERS0:00 Open: the money, the Court, and the media blackout1:00 Bill's money map — read the direction of spending, not the quantity3:00 Minnesota, Kansas, Mississippi: where the map is actually expanding4:30 $110 million into House districts Trump won by double digits5:30 PVI versus “Trump won it by 10” — answering Henry Olsen7:00 What 2018 actually took, and why Democrats start from a better number9:30 Are the Cook race ratings underselling Democrats?12:30 In defense of Cook: what the ratings do and don't claim14:30 Why Mike Rogers should be breaking with Trump in Michigan — and can't17:30 Matt's 2010 story: when breaking with your own president isn't an option18:30 Candidate money versus super PAC money, and who holds the leverage20:30 The rulings that turbocharged party committees and weakened super PACs26:30 The $94 million Texas headline, decoded27:30 $80 per registered voter in dark money in the Maine Senate race30:30 Why Talarico is leading, and Texas Republicans' affordability problem33:00 Missouri's map whiplash, on its way back to the Supreme Court33:30 The debate: is the Court breaking the republic or holding the line?37:30 Mail ballots, three Trump appointees, and Federalist 7839:00 The alternate timeline: what if Democrats had packed the Court first?40:00 Hungary, Orbán, and the cost of losing an independent judiciary41:30 Matt's case: judicial supremacy is younger than Ellen DeGeneres44:30 Alito, Thomas, and a Court that polices its own corruption45:30 The 18-year rotating term — where we agree and where we don't46:30 Is the problem the structure or the people?48:00 Why passing it on a party-line vote invites the next round50:30 Merrick Garland and the senators who had the power and didn't use it51:30 Spend a majority on process, not on a person53:00 Door number one or door number two: the bipartisan path54:00 Lightning round: Trump bans three outlets, the networks black him out55:30 Does less television coverage of Trump actually help him?56:30 The verdict: cover him through November, then shut it off57:30 Where to find Bill Scher#2026Midterms #SupremeCourt #BlueWave #CampaignFinance #DarkMoney #MidtermElections #Politics #PressFreedom #WashingtonMonthly #WorthKnowing

Eight weeks out from the midterms, Republican strategist Matt Wylie says his own party is in serious trouble. The Fed defied Trump, the courts blocked him twice, and House Republicans went home for six weeks rather than take a vote. And all the polling is getting worse for the GOP.This week on Political Rehab, our mashup of PTI and The Daily Show: Kevin Warsh — Trump’s handpicked Fed chair — led a unanimous quarter-point rate hike, the first increase in three years, after Trump spent a year demanding cuts. A federal judge blocked Trump’s name from the Kennedy Center and the Supreme Court blocked his mail-in voting restrictions for November. Speaker Mike Johnson canceled votes and sent the House home ahead of a privileged resolution to impeach Pete Hegseth. The AI safety fight exploded and then died. Saudi Arabia shut down its East-West pipeline and gas prices jumped.Plus Battlefield: why Republicans are suddenly spending $72 million in Texas, what Ashley Hinson’s bipartisanship ad tells you about Iowa, and the clearest Democratic week in the polling averages since we started this segment.CHAPTERS0:00 — Cold open: a very good week for Democrats1:00 — The Fed raises rates and defies Trump3:00 — Why "inflation expectations are anchored" is a message, not a finding4:00 — Trump loses twice in court: the Kennedy Center and mail-in voting6:00 — Alito parrots the cover story7:00 — Johnson cancels votes and sends the House home9:00 — The AI threat hits Congress and goes nowhere12:00 — The Saudi squeeze: the pipeline, gas and diesel15:00 — Battlefield: something is happening in Iowa18:00 — Battlefield: Republicans are panicking about Texas20:00 — Generic ballot, consumer sentiment, Trump approval24:00 — Dose of Hope: fall is back and so is campaign season27:00 — The Kash Patel hearingRead Worth Knowing with Matt Robison: https://worthknowing.substack.comSubscribe: https://worthknowing.substack.com/subscribe#Midterms2026 #Trump #Republicans #PoliticalRehab #FederalReserve #MikeJohnson #SupremeCourt #Texas #Iowa #GenericBallot #KashPatel #AIRegulation #WorthKnowing #Politics #Election2026

Can anyone actually stop AI right now? This week: a viral resignation warning AI "could kill us all by the end of the decade," a rogue AI agent cyberattack, Dario Amodei calling on the industry to slow down, and the President of the United States calling the whole thing a "hoax."I sat down with Bruce Mehlman — Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Technology Policy under George W. Bush, and author of the Age of Disruption newsletter — and returning guest Katie Harbath, former Public Policy Director at Facebook and author of the upcoming book Disrupting Politics: A Front Row Seat to the Collision of Technology and Democracy (out October 6), to ask whether there's any real path to government action here, or whether this is just the next round of an arms race neither party can win.We cover the 10-day timeline that got us here, whether the data-center backlash is really a stand-in for deeper AI anxiety, how AI has scrambled traditional party lines, what companies can do on their own versus what only government or a global agreement can accomplish, whether a "kill switch" is even possible, the Reagan "trust but verify" problem applied to AI, and Katie's own front-row memories of the technology-democracy collision, including January 6th.CHAPTERS00:00 Cold open: "It escalated quickly"00:02 Guest introductions00:03 The 10-day timeline00:05 What actually alarmed them00:06 Bruce's 7 factors behind the convergence00:11 The state preemption fight — Hawley, Blackburn00:13 Did Trump just step into a "bear trap"?00:14 How AI scrambled party alliances00:26 Data centers: proxy, or just affordability?00:30 Talking to my kids about AI risk00:34 What companies can do vs. what only government can do00:41 Is a "kill switch" possible?00:47 China, Xi's visit, and the nuclear non-proliferation parallel00:51 Liability, Section 230, and who you sue when an AI hacks you00:57 Reagan's "trust but verify," applied to AI00:58 Katie's book: the January 6th storyBruce Mehlman's Age of Disruption: https://brucemehlman.substack.com/Katie Harbath's Anchor Change: https://anchorchange.substack.com/Worth Knowing on Substack: https://worthknowing.substack.com/#AI #ArtificialIntelligence #AIRegulation #AISafety #Congress #TechPolicy #DarioAmodei #Anthropic #OpenAI #Midterms2026

A Republican strategist just called his own party's midterm convention "the worst plan I have ever seen in the history of politics." Then Trump promised every American $5,000 — but only if Republicans keep the House and Senate.Democratic strategist Matt Robison and Republican political consultant Matt Wylie break down the GOP's first-ever midterm convention, Trump's $5,000 "dividend" offer, the AI safety warning that has both parties in Congress suddenly paying attention, the Canada trade war turning into an economic divorce, and the 25th anniversary of 9/11. Plus the Battlefield: a $44 million ad buy in Georgia, Republicans losing Hispanic voters in Texas by 23 points, the Supreme Court knocking down Missouri's gerrymander, and what $5.85 diesel is doing to rural House races.CHAPTERS0:00 Cold open0:45 This week's rundown1:00 The GOP midterm convention2:00 Wylie: "the worst plan I have ever seen"4:00 Trump's $5,000 check offer5:00 Why this is a quid pro quo7:05 The AI warning that rattled Congress9:30 The paperclip scenario and the Hugging Face hack11:10 Canada, tariffs, and the economic divorce13:05 The 25th anniversary of 9/1116:20 THE BATTLEFIELD17:00 The $44 million anti-Ossoff ad17:50 Republicans go after veganism19:20 Texas Hispanic voters swing 20 points20:10 The gerrymander that may become a dummymander21:00 Supreme Court rejects Missouri's map21:40 Diesel, fertilizer, and rural House seats23:10 The Scoreboard25:15 The verdict25:55 DOSE OF HOPE: Star Trek turns 6029:30 Why the Vulcan salute is Jewish30:00 The first AI-designed drug reaches Phase IIISUBSCRIBE TO WORTH KNOWINGFull analysis, the weekly scoreboard, and Midterm HQ: https://worthknowing.substack.comFree and paid subscriptions: https://worthknowing.substack.com/subscribeNew episodes of Political Rehab every week. Matt Robison is a former congressional chief of staff and writes Worth Knowing. Matt Wylie is a Republican political consultant. One Democrat, one Republican, no shouting.#Trump #2026Midterms #PoliticalRehab #GOPConvention #MattRobison #MattWylie #Politics #MidtermElections #TrumpNews #AISafety #Canada #Tariffs #JonOssoff #Gerrymandering #StarTrek