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The MAGA coalition is falling apart, Fox News is flummoxed, and Trump is having to grapple with being rejected by huge swaths of America. Steele only has double birds for Republicans who played along with the 10-year hijacking of the party and are now trying to clean up their act. And in a way, the country gave double birds to the administration over DEI, based on the diverse slate of candidates who’ve won statewide office all over the place. Plus: Texas is the whole enchilada for Republicans, electing the president via the national popular vote is looking more possible, Marco leaving the administration would be consistent with how calculating he’s always been, and Tim’s 2012 autopsy was not wrong, just early. Michael Steele joins Tim for the (much gloating!) weekend pod.show notes: Bill in Friday's "Morning Shots" JVL on the conspiracy to push Trump aside (gift link) Image of the before-and-after of Georgia’s statewide office holders Talarico’s early vote total > Paxton’s overall vote total The Bulwark store 20% OFF FLASH BULWARK+ on Substack for the next year. Go beyond the paywall and get unfettered access to ad-free and member-only video and written content from The Bulwark. Go to: TheBulwark.com/sanitywinsBulwark+ members via Substack can set up their personal RSS feeds on their podcast player of choice to access ad-free and member-only shows. Get 20% off your DeleteMe plan when you go to joindeleteme.com/BULWARK and use promo code BULWARK at checkout.

Kansas Senator-elect Hamilton was not recruited out of the Democratic Party pipeline. The Methodist pastor chose to challenge Roger Marshall because he didn't like what was happening in the country, including with ICE agents and cuts to healthcare. But he was also bothered by people in DC claiming to be Christian but not acting like it. Plus: Kamala campaign alum Rob Flaherty joins Tim to celebrate some of the biggest midterm stars, the Dems figuring out how to communicate with voters, the massive blowouts in Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania—and how Democrats in the new Congress have to address the growing concerns over AI.  Senator-elect Adam Hamilton and Rob Flaherty join Tim Miller.show notes: Hamilton's victory speech Tim’s interview with North Carolina’s Anderson Clayton Gina Hinojosa’s personal “I Chose Her” ad Scott Colom’s “Pick Another Senator” ad Colom talking to Trump voters in line for a Trump rally Rob’s “Nobody Knows Anything” podcast Rob’s piece for The Bulwark on the DNC autopsy The Bulwark store 20% OFF FLASH BULWARK+ on Substack for the next year. Go beyond the paywall and get unfettered access to ad-free and member-only video and written content from The Bulwark. Go to: TheBulwark.com/sanitywinsBulwark+ members via Substack can set up their personal RSS feeds on their podcast player of choice to access ad-free and member-only shows. Get 20% off when you go to trustandwill.com/BULWARK

Republicans are already starting to plan for a post-Trump future after last night's wipeout. Sarah, JVL, and Tim savor the victories, including Talarico's and Hamilton's, which represent a complete rebuke of the politics of the Trump era; and physician-senator Annie Andrews who will actually challenge the quackery of RFK Jr. But there's also time for tears for Elon: After wasting hundreds of millions of dollars to try to buy a senator, JVL reminds him to get an apartment near Capitol Hill (or maybe flee to a country that would want him). Plus, Tim does a little election result porn, reviewing his record on his long shot picks, as well as doing a little penance for underestimating the chances of a couple of candidates to pull off a win. (They're still counting ballots in Jackson, MS.) Sarah Longwell and Jonathan V. Last join Tim Miller. show notes: JVL's emergency Triad Sarah's book, "How to Eat an Elephant: One Voter at a Time" 20% OFF FLASH BULWARK+ on Substack for the next year. Go beyond the paywall and get unfettered access to ad-free and member-only video and written content from The Bulwark.  Go to: TheBulwark.com/sanitywins  Bulwark+ members via Substack can set up their personal RSS feeds on their podcast player of choice to access ad-free and member-only shows.

If the repudiation of our corrupt president comes through tonight, Democrats are promising to hold everyone to account who helped him turn our government into a playground for profit and vengeance. In addition to exposing the First Crime Family, Rep. Raskin tells Tim that Dems will also focus on impeaching Hegseth and reclaiming public lands that were given away to plunder. In Texas, Ryan says the Trump era has induced people to behave horribly and lean into what's wrong. Plus: Haley Stevens's betrayal seems to have backfired, Trump made nearly a million dollars an hour in 2025, and Tim uttered the nicest words about Ivanka that have ever been said on any Bulwark podcast. Rep. Jamie Raskin and Ryan Holiday join Tim Miller.show notes: The Bulwark’s election night coverage on YouTube and Substack starts at 7pm ET Ryan’s The Daily Stoic The Painted Porch Bookshop Subscribe to The Bulwark The Bulwark store

The Iran war and its impacts at home are major issues in the midterms, but POTUS is not finished with his misadventure in the Middle East. One key Democratic senator who's been briefed on the war plan says it's "insane" and would lead to a "devastating escalation" of the conflict. In rosier news, the polls continue to look good for the Democrats. Bill—who was bullish back in the summer—is even more so now, while Tim remains nervous about the Senate margin. And in a special bonus segment, JVL and Tim break down Haley Stevens's psychotic break over the weekend.  Bill Kristol and Jonathan V. Last join Tim Miller. show notes: Monday’s “Morning Shots” Carville’s famous speech in “The War Room”  Anderson Cooper’s full interview with Haley Stevens on Sunday The Bulwark's election night coverage on YouTube and Substack Lauren on the legal planning to counter Trump's election meddlng Closing Song: MJ Lenderman - “She’s Leaving You” The Bulwark store

Our vice president made up a confusing story about a trip to an emergency room because almost everything he does is a performative act to play to voters he thinks are dumb. Over at the White House, POTUS flip-flopped and un-canceled his Midwest rallies—so there will be more opportunities for the flat-out racism to keep flowing into Election Day. Plus: Polls and early voting numbers are keeping the anxious optimism going, Melania's Epstein press conference in April makes a lot more sense now, a Bulwarky hero deliciously trolled Fox News, and is Nicki Minaj's MAGA fandom all about getting pardons for the two sexual predators in her life?  Jane Coaston joins Tim Miller for the weekend pod. show notes: Sunday’s live election preview with Tim and the rest of the gang on Substack and YouTube. Jane’s pod, “What A Day” The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store

Is it possible Adam Hamilton could be the first Democratic senator elected from Kansas in 94 years? A major new poll is raising hopes there—and in other key Senate races as well. At the same time, the Peltola campaign's unnecessary Sullivan plot is a gift to election deniers. Plus: Performative cruelty is the MAGA initiation rite, Christian Texans who like Talarico are attracted to his decency, Trump gutted the pro-life movement, and Tim makes an impassioned case to Michigan to not vote for religious bigot Mike Rogers. David French joins Tim Miller.show notes: Tim on the Charlie Kirk Show David on Vivek’s ad National Review piece Tim and David discussed Clip of Tim discussing Renee Good killing on the Charlie Kirk Show The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store One thing to pack, five ways to power! Head to Ridge.com/THEBULWARK for Ridge’s Friends & Family Sale, where you can buy two Ridge Power Banks and get a third FREE.

Trump's (surprisingly) current favorite pollster shares what he's seeing in the numbers less than one week before Election Day. The first sign of what kind of night the Dems are going to have will come when the polls close in Kentucky. But we may have to wait until the wee hours of the morning to learn what happens with the Senate. The Bulwark will be live at 7pm ET. Plus: The Guardian's Julian Borger explains how fear among Arab Israelis was a huge factor in the Israeli election—and may end up redrawing the country's political landscape. And Brazilian voters who were afraid of the Bolsonaro family being back in power delivered the surprising election result there.  Harry Entenr and The Guardian’s Julian Borger join Tim Miller.show notes: Harry on YouTube CNN’s All Access app Julian on the Arab Israeli vote Julian on the elections in Brazil, Israel, Serbia, and the US John Couvillon, the Republican who tracks early voting that Tim mentioned Subscribe to The Bulwark The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store Closing Song: Orville Peck - “It’s the End of the World” NOBL gives you real travel peace of mind — security, design, and convenience all in one. Head to NOBLTravel.com for 67% off your entire order! #NOBL #ad Find your forever cookware @hexclad and get 10% off at hexclad.com/THEBULWARK! #hexcladpartner

Democrats offered a glimpse of the accountability that's likely coming over the Epstein cover-up: new allegations of rape against Trump and evidence that strongly suggests Epstein introduced Melania to Trump. And of course, POTUS is standing by Vivek's ad with an endorsement from a mother who inflicted a pedophile on her own daughter. Plus: The Bulwark and "Pablo Torre Finds Out" teamed up for a new poll on the intersection of sports and politics, Pablo shares the skinny on how Vivek is exactly the kind of person who would use that ad against Amy Acton, Republicans are using straight racism as their closing message against El-Sayed, Hegseth's High T schtick is landing with no one, Trump can't quit his obsession with Comey, and Clay Travis stole his Cheesecake Factory valor.  Sarah Matthews and Pablo Torre join Tim Miller. show notes: Tim and Sam discuss the new poll on “Pablo Torre Finds Out” Brendan on the new poll from The Bulwark and “Pablo Torre Finds Out”  The January 6 Memory Project The petition by Vivek’s high school classmates calling on him to pull the ad Pablo’s Kelly Clarkson show The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store Closing Song: The War on Drugs - “Suffering”

There was good news over the weekend on the anti-authoritarian front in Brazil and Serbia, while our wannabe autocrat is ominously threatening to not accept midterm election results he doesn't like. Still, early voting numbers among Dems in key states—along with black voters in the South and Latinos in Texas—are encouraging signs. Plus: Bill and Tim share their longshots (in Louisiana, Iowa, and Wisconsin), Trump's helipad is now known as the maxi pad, the right's Cheesecake Factory defense has reached epically absurd levels, POTUS wants everyone to know how badly Bill Maher hurt his feelings, and what is Musk up to targeting The Bulwark? Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller.show notes: Monday "Morning Shots," including Andrew on Trump's latest quid pro quo attempts Tim’s ‘Take’ on Musk’s threat against The Bulwark Jamie Davis’s campaign for Senate in Louisiana The campaign site for Rick Crosson in WI-8 Rick Crosson responding to a communism question Campaign site for Lindsay James in IA-2 Josh Turek’s trans-related ad Tangle News on how Trump's corruption is still the story Tangle's original piece on the corruption Join The Bulwark for our members-only livestream on Sunday Closing Song: MJ Lenderman - “She’s Leaving You” The Bulwark store

Elon Musk is the largest single donor in American political history. He's also the world's most prominent booster of white supremacy. While Democrat after Democrat gets asked about Hasan Piker, most reporters don't seem to ask Republicans about the views of the man who's pumped nearly a half billion dollars into their Senate campaigns. Nor do they ask about the destruction he rained down on our government under DOGE. Plus: Trump is trying to build a city-size mausoleum for himself, his targeting of Ilhan Omar is also an attack on Congress, MBS is finding out he bribed the wrong family, the gang of jackals around Trump has no loyalty to the U.S., and is JD such an a-hole because deep down he hates his mother...and himself?  Jamelle Bouie joins Tim Miller for the weekend pod.show notes: Jamelle’s piece, “Elon Musk Is Beyond the Pale” Jamelle on the targeting of Ilhan Omar JVL’s “JD Vance Is a Sociopath” Walter Isaacson’s interview with Elon Washington Sun on State Dept only promoting officials who voted for Trump The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store

Democrats on the House Oversight Committee are already divvying up how to investigate Musk, the one-time shadow president who's still making foreign policy decisions about the war in Ukraine. Also on tap for hearings is the impeachable Hegseth, who ironically broke the iconic globe used by Eisenhower—a man who actually knew how to fight a war. And of course there's self-enriching Jared Kushner, who pretends to do diplomacy with his Putin-worshipping sidekick, Steve Witkoff. Plus: Vance's support of Vivek's ad suggests that he has deep psychological problems, Marco keeps flailing on the Starlink debacle, the crypto industry is spending $55 million to buy Ohio Senator Jon Husted, Mike Rogers's wife has won some very large government contracts, and Kinzinger feels a real energy behind Talarico in Texas. Adam Kinzinger joins Tim Miller.show notes: Kinzinger's YouTube Kinzinger on Substack Andrew in “Morning Shots” on the Texas trans mailers Drop Site News on Mike Rogers’s wife’s government contracts Jon Stewart on Mike Rogers Chris Christie dragging Vivek The NYT on Alina Habba’s $50 million deal The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store Closing Song: Orville Peck - “It’s the End of the World”

Could there be a bigger sign of Ramaswamy's depravity and desperation than using a mother from hell to sell your message? His campaign for governor of Ohio against Amy Acton has been a nightmare from the beginning. Meanwhile, Murphy senses kryptonite in the water around Trump as well, particularly with the farm belt in revolt over tariffs and the price of diesel. But in Michigan, El-Sayed has got to cool it on the cocky bro stuff in the final days of his campaign. Plus: From our live show in Atlanta Tuesday evening, Gen. Hertling joined Tim to discuss the continuing blame game between Musk and the administration over the crippling of Ukraine's military communications, the lack of leadership at the Pentagon, and the failure to protect our troops. Mike Murphy and Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling join Tim Miller. show notes: Hertling's recent piece, "Siding With Russia Is a Double Betrayal" Murphy’s “Hacks On Tap” pod Amy Acton’s campaign site The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store Closing Song: MJ Lenderman - “She’s Leaving You”

Though they deny any involvement, the Trump administration and Elon Musk are apparently helping Putin escalate his campaign of terror against Ukraine. Civilian casualties across Ukraine are rising—including women and children—but Trump said Monday that Russia "has been fine on Ukraine." At the same time, Team Trump looks to be lining up business deals with Russian energy companies. And Marco's whitewashing of it all is sickening. Plus: Zelensky is tired of Trump's games, China is playing a curious role on both sides of the war, and JD has another whopper to add to his stack of lies.  Former Amb. Michael McFaul joins Tim Miller. show notes: McFaul’s book, “Autocrats vs Democrats: China, Russia, America, and the New Global Disorder” Tim’s ‘Take’ with Caolan Robertson in Ukraine The NYT on potential Kushner/Witkoff deal with Russian company Lukoil Bulwark LIVE show in Atlanta TONIGHT The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield The Bulwark store Closing Song: Orville Peck - “It’s the End of the World”

The vice president had the gall to suggest he didn't know anything about what millions of Americans know: that Trump is using his office to enrich himself and that the administration made major mistakes in executing the war in Iran. But the polls strongly suggest a rebuke of Putin's biggest fan is coming because of the conflict in the Middle East. Plus: The obsession at Fox over Abdul El-Sayed is getting embarrassing, Mike Rogers is a POS, Tim and Bill share their new round of long shots (in North Carolina and Mississippi), and the tech oligarchs will be among the last to break with Trump. Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller.show notes: The Bulwark LIVE in Charlotte Sunday evening Monday’s “Morning Shots” CBS’s town hall with Vance Mississippi’s Scott Colom’s campaign site Paul Barringer’s congressional campaign site for NC-13 Kimberly Hardy’s congressional campaign site for NC-7 Judd Legum on Zuckerberg Abdul El-Sayed confronting a Republican plant at one of his campaign events Bulwark LIVE in Atlanta on Oct. 20 Closing Song: The War on Drugs - “Suffering” The Bulwark store For their buy 1 get 1 50% off deal, head to 3DayBlinds.com/THEBULWARK.