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We don’t have to go decades back to find an analogy. Just look back a few years, to the pandemic. We all lived through it, most of us in sweatpants. And it offers a near-perfect preview of what is about to happen in AI. The post The AI Hangover Is Coming. The Pandemic Already Showed Us How It Ends. – Ep 305 appeared first on The Intellectual Investor - Value Investing by Vitaliy Katsenelson.

A great speaker can bend logic with emotions and exert undue influence on your decision making. The better someone speaks, the more discriminating your Sophist filter needs to be. The post Your Sophist Filter: On CEOs, Cynics, and the Voice in Your Head – Ep 304 appeared first on The Intellectual Investor - Value Investing by Vitaliy Katsenelson.

On Jonah and Molly's wedding The post My New Daughter – Ep 303 appeared first on The Intellectual Investor - Value Investing by Vitaliy Katsenelson.

Here is what changed my mind. Not something about gold, but many things about the dollar. The US dollar is the world's reserve currency. It has had a well-deserved place since WWII, and that rested on three things: the largest, steadiest, most diverse economy; a politically stable democracy; the best military. The post Depressing Reasons Why I Am Bullish On Gold (Part 2) – Ep 302 appeared first on The Intellectual Investor - Value Investing by Vitaliy Katsenelson.

Narrative change is a reversal of mass behavior. Economics and stock market valuation are governed by soft laws, but the reality bent by human behavior can disagree with these soft laws for much longer than rational actors would expect, or stay solvent. The change, going from euphoria to despair, is a change in narrative. The post Narrative Change (Part 1) – Ep 301 appeared first on The Intellectual Investor - Value Investing by Vitaliy Katsenelson.

As an entrepreneur, you always want to grow your business. Your current revenue and profit are never enough; they just set the bar higher for next year. We always want more. But this “more” has a hidden cost. The post You Are Responsible for What You Have Tamed – Ep 300 appeared first on The Intellectual Investor - Value Investing by Vitaliy Katsenelson.

I have vague first memories of playing chess with my grandfather when my family visited my father's parents in Moscow. I was five years old. The post Chess Nights at Red Robin – Ep 299 appeared first on The Intellectual Investor - Value Investing by Vitaliy Katsenelson.

I wrote in the past that the AI rollout feels a lot like déjà vu of the 1999 telecom bubble. Today's AI bubble has elements of both the 1999 overinvestment in internet infrastructure and the 2008 collapse of financial instruments that infected the banking and financial system. The post Today’s Market = 1999 Capex + 2008 Credit – Ep 298 appeared first on The Intellectual Investor - Value Investing by Vitaliy Katsenelson.

My wife and I are taking a perfectly good 25-year-old house and spending 20% of the purchase price on a sizable remodel. Parts of it are going back to the studs. I had never done a big remodel, I knew nothing about construction, and I was shocked by how many landmines, wrong decisions, and outright ... Read more The post You Don’t Need to Be an Expert to Hire One. You Need a Tunaman. – Ep 297 appeared first on The Intellectual Investor - Value Investing by Vitaliy Katsenelson.

I was at a conference in Switzerland. A reader came up to me and asked, "Vitaliy, I've been reading your articles for years. I'd like to write. How should I start?" The post Most People Don’t Want to Write. They Want to Have Written. – Ep 296 appeared first on The Intellectual Investor - Value Investing by Vitaliy Katsenelson.

Lately, I’ve been getting this powerful feeling that everything I touch turns to gold. Every time I buy a stock, it goes up. Did I finally figure out the stock market game? Did I find a secret way to follow Will Rogers’ advice: Buy stocks that go up, and if they don’t go up, don’t ... Read more The post You are not as smart as you think you are – Ep 295 appeared first on The Intellectual Investor - Value Investing by Vitaliy Katsenelson.

Reflections on friendship, mortality, and the kindness of Guy Spier, the value investor who taught me that we all live on borrowed time. The post Guy and I – Ep 294 appeared first on The Intellectual Investor - Value Investing by Vitaliy Katsenelson.

I have been feeling very uneasy about the market and the economy. Over the last two decades our economy has been acclimated to insanely low interest rates, and reacclimation to higher and rising rates is going to be difficult. The post This Is Your Captain Speaking – Buckle Up – Ep 293 appeared first on The Intellectual Investor - Value Investing by Vitaliy Katsenelson.

My subconscious melded Fiddler on the Roof with the lecture from a few days earlier, and I ended up writing a chapter about the Jewish farmer Tevye buying a cow, Golde (which he named after his first wife). The post Fiddler on the Roof and Value Investing – Ep 292 appeared first on The Intellectual Investor - Value Investing by Vitaliy Katsenelson.

Stock XYZ has declined 25%. What do you think? Is your thesis broken? What you observe in stock price volatility is mostly noise. A good chunk of buyers and sellers don’t know much about what they are trading other than the ticker. The post What to Do When a Stock Drops 25% – Ep 291 appeared first on The Intellectual Investor - Value Investing by Vitaliy Katsenelson.