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In Wealth, War and Wisdom (2008), Barton Biggs showed how financial markets often react with greater insight into the shifting fortunes of war than the general population. During World War II for example, German stocks peaked in 1941, well before the military disaster at Stalingrad. The US market rallied following the Battle of Midway in […]

Normally I regard a “healthy correction” after a long rally as the description of those uninvolved. There’s nothing healthy about a market drop for the longs, regardless of if it was preceded by an extended rally, as is the case for energy this year. A sell-off under any circumstances is only good for shorts and […]

LNG export terminals usually have the ability to export more than their nameplate capacity. This is how we exported a record 18.8 Billion Cubic Feet Per Day (BCF/D) of natural gas in March, compared with FERC’s estimated sustainable limit of 14.6-15 BCF/D. Venture Global’s (VG) Plaquemines facility was the strongest at exceeding stated capacity. Cheniere’s […]

The disruption of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports from Qatar has a short term and long term consequence. As spot benchmark prices rose in Europe and Asia, traders focused on the near-term profit opportunity. LNG export terminals contract most of their capacity for long periods (10-20 years) to reduce their exposure to gas prices. Of […]

Trump 1.0 was not kind to energy investors. Although the sector welcomed his pro-energy regulatory approach, it came with a desire for low oil prices. Covid was the final straw as lockdowns forced everyone to stay at home, crushing oil demand and briefly sending crude prices negative. The American Energy Infrastructure Index (AEITR) delivered –6.2% […]

It’s not easy to make the Persian Gulf safe for commercial shipping. On Wednesday a Thai vessel was hit by three “unidentified projectiles” near the Strait of Hormuz and caught fire. Several other vessels were hit towards the end of the week. In total 22 civilian ships have been hit in the Persian Gulf since […]

The negative correlation between energy and the stock market that we highlighted last Sunday (see AI Moves The Energy Sector) continued last week, unsurprisingly given the news. We had thought global natural gas markets were more vulnerable than crude oil to conflict, and this turned out to be true. Qatar represents only 20% of global […]

Forty years ago, when I was trading eurodollar interest rate futures, it was routine to respond to a sudden unexplained move in the market by calling the floor of the CME and talking to our broker. Caught up in the excitement of the loud heaving mass of brokers and locals in the pit*, he would […]

The performance of midstream last year didn’t align with the fundamentals. This is clear when you consider the periods either side (2024 and 2026YTD). Last year, the sector lagged and many investors became frustrated with the underperformance versus the S&P500, which really means versus the big AI hyperscalers. In 2024 midstream investors grasped the need […]

Williams Companies’ (WMB) youthful President and CEO Chad Zamarin gave an inspiring presentation to kick of their Investor Day last week. He described US energy infrastructure as a blessing, and natural gas as our competitive advantage. Zamarin traced the company’s origins back to World War II, when German U-boats were sinking US ships transporting fuel […]

The other day I was chatting with a retired friend about the inflation rate he should assume when analyzing his investment portfolio and its ability to fund his retirement. The Fed’s stated inflation goal is 2%, so my friend felt that 3% was a conservative assumption. There are several problems with using the CPI to […]

January was a good month for midstream energy infrastructure. The American Energy Infrastructure Index was +9%, the 10th best month of the past decade and the best since November 2024. For those who like simple statistical patterns, over the past ten years the direction of January’s performance has correctly predicted the full year 70% of […]

There were several positive news stories last week that helped propel the American Energy Infrastructure Index (AEITR) to +7% YTD, well ahead of the S&P500 which is +1%. Kinder Morgan’s (KMI) earnings unusually beat expectations. Moreover, their increased backlog of projects didn’t scare investors as much as it should given their perennially low Return On […]

In The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched the Quant Revolution, author Greg Zuckerman explains how today’s traders spend most of their time doing research. At Renaissance, the hedge fund Zuckerman chronicles, and other quantitative funds, traders spend much of their time looking for market anomalies that are likely to repeat and […]

More than most times, the energy market is moving on macro developments. President Trump is for low oil prices. He wants energy dominance which means ample supply. Although the White House is a big fan of the US energy sector, volumes trump profits. Trump’s first term was not a good one for energy investors. Oil […]