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Long treated as the immovable foundation of European security, America’s role in NATO is now being questioned more openly than at any point in decades, as Washington signals doubts about its commitment to the continent and debates whether US forces should be pulled back toward other theatres. On paper, Europe still looks formidable. Its militaries outspend Russia, field large numbers of troops, aircraft, ships, and armoured vehicles, and are already beginning a major rearmament push. Yet behind those headline numbers lies a much messier reality. Much of Europe’s ability to fight as a single coherent force still depends on the United States: its intelligence networks, satellites, airlift, logistics, targeting systems, command structures, missile defence, and nuclear deterrent. Replacing those capabilities would not simply mean buying more tanks or raising defence budgets, but rebuilding the operating system that allows NATO to function in a crisis. And with Russia’s war economy still running, its northern military districts being rebuilt, and the Baltic states sitting exposed on NATO’s front line, the question is not just whether Europe could defend itself without America, but whether it could do so quickly enough. Our panel of experts examines what the US still provides, what Europe would need to replace, and whether Moscow’s timelines may move faster than Europe’s. - Ruben Stewart (IISS) - Ben Barry (IISS) - Neil Melvin (UI)  - Gen. Philip Breedlove (Fmr. Supreme Allied Commander for Europe) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 02:47 PART II - 28:06 PART III - 41:26 PART IV - 1:05:20 Outro - 1:31:31 Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Once synonymous with Europe’s past wars and fading heavy industry, the tank factory has re-emerged as one of the continent’s most guarded and politically charged symbols amid rearmament, strategic anxiety, and a renewed push for deterrence on NATO’s eastern flank. In this special exclusive episode, Michael and two special guests are granted rare access inside one of Europe’s most secretive tank factories to examine the newest generation of armoured vehicles now moving into production. From armour protection and fire control to manufacturing timelines, battlefield doctrine, and the industrial logic behind Europe’s current defence buildup, the visit offers a close look at how these platforms are being designed, built, and sold as part of a broader strategy of containment. But behind the polished production lines and bold promises lies a deeper set of questions about scale, readiness, and whether Europe’s industrial base can actually deliver what its strategic environment now demands. After the tour, the panel sits down to discuss the specifications, the doctrine, and the role this new generation of tanks is likely to play in Europe’s military posture. - James Ker-Lindsay (Prof. James Ker Lindsay) - David Schroeder (The Cold War) Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Previously dismissed as a niche academic concept and a talking point for Central Asia specialists, the Middle Corridor has re-emerged as one of the most discussed trade routes in Eurasia amid war, sanctions, and growing instability across the world’s maritime chokepoints. Running from western China through Central Asia, across the Caspian, through the Caucasus and on toward Europe, the corridor promises a route that bypasses Russia, avoids Iran, and reduces dependence on vulnerable sea lanes through Hormuz, Suez, and the Red Sea. Yet behind the hype lies a much messier reality. The route is fragmented, expensive, capacity-constrained, and still plagued by border delays, port bottlenecks, gauge breaks, and political risk stretching from Kazakhstan to Georgia. But as China searches for strategic redundancy, Europe looks for alternatives to the Russian route, and Central Asia seeks deeper regional integration and greater leverage between Moscow and Beijing, the question remains: is the Middle Corridor a viable new artery of Eurasian trade, or merely an overpriced hedge for a more dangerous world? Our panel of experts examines the economics, the geopolitics, and the hard limits of the route in 2026. - S. Frederick Starr (Central Asia -Caucasus Institute) - Bruce Pannier (Foreign Policy Research Institute) - Peter Leonard (CAPS Unlock)  - Eric Rudenshiold (Caspian Policy Center) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 03:20 PART II - 23:08 PART III - 50:12 PART IV - 1:03:39 Outro - 1:23:54 Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Once hailed as a beacon of democratic reform in Southeast Asia, Myanmar has devolved into a fractured state defined by a brutal, multi-front civil war following the 2021 military coup. The Junta clings to power in the central cities through terror and forced conscription, while a patchwork of resistance forces controls the periphery but struggles with donor fatigue and ammunition shortages. Yet, following the shockwaves of Operation 1027 and the rise of a narcotics-and-scam-fueled war economy, the conflict has shifted. China, the region’s hesitant kingmaker, is now applying direct pressure on both sides to secure its strategic access to the Indian Ocean. With the country effectively split and neither side possessing the strength to deliver a knockout blow, the question remains: is Myanmar destined to fracture like Yugoslavia, or can a unified state still emerge from the ashes? Our panel of experts examines the stalled frontlines, Beijing’s evolving strategy, and the grim reality of who, if anyone, can actually govern the nation in 2026. On the panel this week: - Zachary Abuza (National Defence University) - Derek Mitchell (CSIS) - Jason Tower (GI-TOC)  - Steve Ross (Stimson Center) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 02:15 PART II - 34:55 PART III - 1:01:52 PART IV - 1:15:09 Outro - 135:15 Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Once the spearhead of Allied victory in World War II and the backbone of nuclear deterrence in the early Cold War, strategic bombers are often dismissed today as relics of a bygone era. Yet three powers, the United States, Russia, and China, continue to field formidable bomber fleets. Washington employs them for precision strikes in contested airspace across the globe, Moscow for launching missile salvos into theatres like Syria and Ukraine, and Beijing as a key secondary strike asset. Now, with all three preparing to unveil next-generation platforms that promise capabilities well beyond their current fleets, the question is clear: how will these aircraft shape the battlefields of 2025, and which nation will bring its new bomber to the skies first? Our panel of experts examines the evolving role of strategic bombers and what these upcoming platforms could mean for the balance of power in the air. On the panel this week: - Col. David Gordon (United States Air Force) - Valeriy Akimenko (Conflict Studies Research Centre) - Bill Sweetman (Airpower Consultant) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 03:01 PART II - 27:40 PART III - 46:40 Outro - 1:02:27 Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Cyprus sits at a persistent impasse, divided between the Republic of Cyprus in the south and the Turkish-backed administration in the north. Despite decades of negotiations, reunification remains elusive, and the island has quietly become one of the most militarised borders in Europe, patrolled by UN peacekeepers, flanked by British bases, and overshadowed by tens of thousands of Turkish troops. While Ankara now frames Cyprus as a lower strategic priority, its military presence on the island remains substantial, and recent tensions over gas exploration and border infrastructure suggest the status quo may be more fragile than it appears. So why does Turkey still maintain such a significant footprint in Northern Cyprus? How stable is the current arrangement? And what would happen if a local incident triggered a wider escalation? To unpack these questions and assess the island’s geopolitical future, we turn to our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - James Ker-Lindsay (Kent University) - Rich Outzen (The Atlantic Council) - Matthew Bryza (Straife) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 03:27 PART II - 26:10 PART III - 46:03 Outro - 57:25 Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Abkhazia stands at a critical juncture, caught between its historical dependence on Russia and the uncertain allure of reconciliation with Georgia. Long overshadowed by Moscow's influence, recent years have seen the territory's population increasingly frustrated with Russia's heavy-handed presence, just as Tbilisi tentatively begins exploring pathways to re-engagement. Could growing anti-Russian sentiment signal a geopolitical realignment in the South Caucasus? Will Abkhazia tilt back toward Georgia, upsetting decades of frozen conflict dynamics? And why, despite mounting tensions and economic costs, does Moscow remain committed to maintaining its grip on this disputed strip of Black Sea coastline? To unpack these questions and understand the future of Abkhazia, we turn to our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Laura Linderman (Central Asia-Caucasus Institute) - Beka Bajelidze (Institute for War and Peace) - Thomas de Waal (Carnegie Europe) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 03:49 PART II - 30:49 PART III - 1:00:15 Outro - 1:21:46 Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAusSupport the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The last few years have seen a dramatic shift in the balance of power in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), with Rwandan-backed militias advancing in North Kivu, Ugandan forces launching cross-border operations, and Western powers quietly increasing their presence in the region. What was once considered a forgotten conflict is now emerging as a new front in the global competition for influence, driven not just by security concerns, but by the region’s immense mineral wealth, critical for everything from electric vehicles to modern electronics. This week, we sit down with our expert panel to unpack who actually controls eastern Congo, why this strip of land has become so strategically valuable to outside powers, and how the local conflict is fast becoming a global contest between rival blocs. On the panel this week: - Hugh Kinsella Cunningham (DRC Photojournalist) - Alex Vines (Chatham House) - Michael Rubin (AEI) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 03:30 PART II - 40:38 PART III - 1:02:51 Outro - 1:33:03 Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Through one of our contacts in Russia, we have managed to acquire a packet of Russian Ministry of Defence documents smuggled out of Moscow. The packet pertains to a new weapons system that is about to be deployed to the battlefield, one that will catapult Russia forward in its artillery capabilities. To understand what this system is capable of and how much of a game-changer it is likely to be for the Russian forces, we brought on two key experts to dissect the documents and blueprints. On the panel this week: - Mark Galeotti (RUSI) - Eric Gomez (Missile and Nuclear Weapons Expert) Released April 1st, 2025. Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/c/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The last few months have seen major shifts in the balance of power in the far north, with the US making threats toward Greenland, Russia exerting pressure on Svalbard, and Arctic shipping routes, once seen as a counterweight to the Suez Canal, are now increasingly having their viability called into question. So as Greenland heads to the polls, the territory finds itself voting on far more than just a new legislature; instead deciding on the makeup of a future arctic flashpoint that could see NATO facing pressures from both the east and the west. This week, we sit down with our expert panel to analyse how we arrived at this position, the economic factors most people overlook when discussing the Arctic, and how likely these geopolitical tensions are to escalate into conflict. On the panel this week: - Jennifer Spence (Harvard Belfer Center) - Nicolas Jouan (RAND Europe) - Sigbjørn Halsne (Norwegian Armed Forces) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 03:06 PART II - 28:54 PART III - 49:15 Outro - 1:19:54 Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Timor-Leste stands at a crossroads, grappling with the legacies of Indonesian occupation, economic dependence on dwindling oil reserves, and the encroaching geopolitical pressures shaping its future. Once heralded as a success story of post-colonial independence, the country now faces mounting economic challenges, political stagnation, and an uncertain path toward ASEAN integration. Can Timor-Leste successfully diversify its economy before its oil wealth runs dry? Will its growing ties with China raise alarm bells in Canberra and Jakarta? And how do its historical struggles inform its current trajectory? We ask our panel of experts:  On the panel this week: - Michael Leach (Swinburne University) - Parker Novak (Atlantic Council) - Josh Kurlantzick (The Council on Foreign Relations) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 04:24 PART II - 27:03 PART III - 56:12 Outro - 1:08:38 Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Many of the U.S. Navy’s shipbuilding programs are currently running over budget and behind schedule, raising serious concerns about the Navy's future operational strength and the broader capacity of U.S. industry to scale production in the event of a larger conflict. This situation is particularly troubling, given that the United States once held a dominant position in global shipbuilding. So how did the U.S. reach this position, and who is to blame? Is it the Navy, the shipbuilders, private capital, the Pentagon, or even Congress? To unpack these pressing questions, we bring in our panel of experts to analyse the root causes of this decline and explore what can be done to restore the United States’ shipbuilding capabilities. On the panel this week:  - John Konrad (GCaptain) - Emma Salisbury (War on the Rocks) - Matthew Funaiole (CSIS) - Thomas Shugart (CNAS) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 04:04 PART II - 33:53 PART III - 1:02:57 PART IV - 1:22:12 Outro - 1:45:42 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As part of our wider project examining the armed forces of Central Asia, the research team sat down with experts from government, military, and academia. We brought together all of our findings and research and wargamed some of the region's most likely and plausible scenarios, not because we think war between these states is imminent, but because it is a useful way to gain better insights into how these militaries function and the challenges they would face. The format highlighted several key issues, including drivers such as the impact of lacking sufficient field trucks, unequal aerial capabilities, or the geography of the country forcing invading forces into a single narrow pocket, each of which severely limits the options available to any invading force. Across all of our wargames, we selected three of the most interesting scenarios to examine here on The Red Line, exploring three key regional conflicts, the most likely triggers for those conflicts, and how prepared each of these states are for war against a peer rival. To guide us through the findings and their implications for defence dynamics in Central Asia, we are joined by this week's special guest for part two of our mini-series, The Armed Forces of Central Asia. On the panel this week:  Derek Bisaccio (Forecast International) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 03:57 PART II - 1:02:23 PART III - 1:45:30 Outro - 2:10:09 Read the Tajikistan Chapter of the Report here: https://oxussociety.org/projects/the-armed-forces-of-central-asia/ Check out the mapping project here: https://oxussociety.org/viz/military-units/ Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow our project partners on @OxusSociety and @ForecastIntl Support the show at:  / theredlinepodcast   Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The evolving relationship between Armenia and Russia has seen dramatic shifts in recent years, particularly in the wake of Armenia's devastating defeat in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. Once heavily reliant on Russian military support, Armenia now finds itself questioning the reliability of this partnership. As Russia grapples with its own military commitments in Ukraine and its shrinking influence in the South Caucasus, Armenia has begun to explore alternative alliances, deepening ties with countries like France and India. But with Russian troops still stationed in Armenia and economic dependencies persisting, can Armenia truly pivot away from Moscow's orbit? We ask our panel of experts about the complexities of Armenia's balancing act between historical alliances and new geopolitical realities. On the panel this week: - Oleysa Vartanyan (Caucasus Analyst) - Laurence Broers (Chatham House) - Thomas De Waal (Carnegie Europe) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 05:24 PART II - 27:36 PART III - 58:08 Outro - 1:21:38 Read the Armed Forces of Central Asia Report: https://oxussociety.org/projects/the-armed-forces-of-central-asia/ Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at https://www.patreon.com/c/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Conscription is a complex and multifaceted issue, influencing not only a nation's defence capabilities but also its economy and political landscape. With countries as diverse as Denmark, to the DRC, from Taiwan to Tajikistan, and even Austria to Armenia, having all adopted conscription. However, as different as each of these nations are, each of them is now facing unique challenges, constraints, impacts and benefits from the practice. So what are the true economic advantages and drawbacks of conscription, should countries like the US, the UK and Germany be looking at its reimplementation, and can it serve as an effective deterrent in modern conflicts? We ask our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Paul O'Neill (RUSI) - Pvt. Gona (Conscript in the Finnish Army) - Eric Crampton (New Zealand Initiative) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 05:51 PART 2 - 28:47 PART 3 - 43:13 Outro - 56:39 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support The Red Line at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices