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Amid very volatile rate movements, we examine the impact of economic and political fundamentals on markets. In the US we analyse the latest labour market release, recent inflation data, and less-hawkish Fed-speak. In Europe, we discuss the French fiscal challenges have dominated the European newsflow alongside recent inflation data and how the ECB might react. In Asia we talk about why the RBI's rate hiking cycle may be different this time around, as well as the economy's broader vulnerabilities.

What's priced in? Risk premia vs real policy.  Live from the Nomura London Macro Forum our lead economists discuss with Dr Mann, whether market pricing or consensus outlook is closer to BoE thinking. Amid elevated uncertainty, how far do rates need to rise? And, why the BoE can't rely on markets to tighten on its behalf.

Risk-off mode despite the Trump-Xi meeting, and ahead of US core PCE and jobs report, China PMIs, CPI in Europe, and a likely RBA hike. We offer some thoughts on the Trump-Xi summit, and preview core PCE and labor market data in the US. In Europe we discuss the latest on Germany's politics, the significance of widening long-end spreads and the upcoming CPI data. We expect an RBA hike, a pickup in China PMIs and a somewhat divergent inflation picture in Australia, Korea and Indonesia. Chapters: US: 02:34, China: 06:42, Rest of Asia: 12:31, Europe: 17:28

This week, we start with expectations for additional hikes by the Fed and BOJ this year. In Europe, we preview the Riksbank, Norges Bank, and SNB, which we all expect to stay on-hold. In Asia, we see Bank Indonesia standing pat, core inflation rising in Singapore and job growth rebounding in Australia.

Fragile bond markets seek relief; will central banks deliver? In the US, we review the August CPI and preview the FOMC meeting and Fed outlook. In Europe, we share our take on the ECB and the coming BOE meeting. Across Asia, we preview the BOJ meeting and key data in China and India. Chapters: US: 02:05, Europe: 05:48, Japan: 10:28, Rest of Asia: 14:53.

US rate pricing remains volatile between key data releases and contrasting Fed speak, but tightening by the ECB looks much more certain. US jobs data were resilient, leaving the market awaiting inflation data to ascertain the Fed's next move. In Europe we preview the ECB's upcoming rate decision and talk about Scandinavian inflation. Across Asia, we look at inflation and trade data and focus on the challenges facing Indonesia. Chapters: US: 02:02, Europe: 08:13, Asia: 15:25.

Central banks and rates in the spotlight. For North America, we preview the Bank of Canada policy meeting, US payrolls data, and discuss the central bank gathering at Jackson Hole. In Europe, we conduct an inflation deep-dive and examine hawkish ECB communication. Across Asia, we preview policy meetings in Malaysia and New Zealand, and key data across the region. Chapters: US: 02:23, Rates Special: 09:21, Europe 20:24, Asia: 25:59.

Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech comes into view, as do political risks in Europe and a range of Asian central banks. We discuss the Fed Chair's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole, the likely Fed path and US-Canada trade. In Europe, political developments are on the agenda ahead of a plethora of elections in the next year. In Asia, we preview rate decisions in Korea, Thailand and the Philippines. Chapters: US: 02:23, Europe: 9:42, Asia: 18:50

Preview of FOMC minutes, UK CPI, Riksbank, China activity data and BI, plus a special segment with Akshay Prasad, IWM Head of Investment Products & Advisory Solutions. We outline what to look out for in the FOMC minutes, UK CPI and labor market data, and the Riksbank decision. In Asia, we discuss China's tier-1 activity data and fiscal stimulus prospects, as well as the upcoming BI meeting. Special guest: Akshay Prasad, IWM Head of Investment Products & Advisory Solutions, discusses new initiatives and portfolio construction in volatile markets. Chapters: US: 02:30, Europe: 07:08, China: 13:28, Rest of Asia: 20:08.

The uncertain oil outlook remains a key theme, while markets await the US CPI report for fresh Fed clues. In the US, we share our forecasts for the coming CPI and retail sales releases and our Fed outlook. In Europe, we preview the central bank meeting in Norway, August sentiment data and discuss the heatwave. In Japan, we examine the BOJ outlook, with fresh minutes to be released and following recent FX intervention to support the yen.  Across Asia, we preview key data ahead and the RBA policy meeting in Australia. Chapters: US: 02:24, Europe: 07:23, Japan: 11:13, Rest of Asia: 16:31.

Markets start to question Fed credibility, fiscal issues stay in focus for the UK, while Japan's monetary and FX policy come into the spotlight. We discuss the Fed Chair's mixed messages and preview next week's labour market release. In our special UK segment, we reflect on the BoE's "dovish" hold and discuss fiscal plans under the new PM. In Asia, the BOJ and JPY intervention are in focus, and we also look ahead to the RBI and regional CPI data ahead. Chapters: US: 02:49 Europe: 13:00, Japan: 25:19, Rest of Asia: 30:08.

Preview of the Fed, BOE, BOJ and MAS and a segment discussing market risks with special guest Vijay Sundaram, Global Head of Front Office Risk & Control. We discuss the Fed and BOE remaining on-hold, US core PCE inflation easing, and the latest on UK fiscal plans. Central banks in Japan and Singapore are in focus; we think both are likely to pause, but it is a much closer call for MAS than BOJ. Special guest: Vijay Sundaram, our Global Head of Front Office Risk, speaks about market risks and how risk management is evolving. Chapters: US: 02:27, Europe: 09:21, Japan: 16:28, Rest of Asia: 20:40.

Europe comes back into focus ahead of the ECB and UK data, with a spotlight also on Korea and the "AI trade". For Europe, we look ahead to the ECB rate decision, preview UK inflation and labour market data, and discuss UK politics. In the US, we debate Fed Chair Warsh's recent comments and the latest soft inflation prints. In Asia, the focus is on Korea, the latest monetary policy decision and the impact of the AI/tech sector on the economy. Chapters: Europe: 01:51; US: 07:38; Korea: 14:00; Rest of Asia: 22:18.

Focus swings back to the Middle East, while we keep an eye out for 2 central bank meetings and key data ahead. In the US, we preview US CPI, retail sales and the Bank of Canada policy meeting. In Europe, we touch on UK GDP data, and discuss politics in the UK and France. In Asia, we share our forecasts for key monthly activity and Q2 GDP data in China, inflation in India, and GDP growth in Singapore.  Chapters: US: 02:01, Europe: 11:13, China: 16:11, Asia: 22:01.

Following the Sintra Central Banking Forum, we discuss the ECB and Fed outlooks, and the impact of the latest labour market data on the latter. Fed Chair Warsh remains steadfast in avoiding forward guidance, but we see dovish hints in some of his comments. We look at the change in ECB rhetoric and softer inflation data which may signal only one more rate hike. In China, we focus on upcoming inflation data and how monetary and fiscal policy can respond. Chapters: US: 01:58, Europe: 09:24, China: 14:46, Asia: 22:37.