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Can AI cut the time it takes to figure out what you can build on a site? Co-hosts Vladimir Bosanac (co-founder and publisher of The Registry) and Rob Zirkle (Vice President of Planning and Development, Prince Street Partners) sit down with Olya Krasnykh, co-founder of Contor, an AI-powered land use and development platform based in Northern California. Olya’s path to proptech is anything but typical: a Russian immigrant who grew up in the Bay Area, she started as a molecular biologist at UCSF, spent nearly a decade developing transit-oriented multifamily housing with Sares Regis Group of Northern California, helped some 25,000 Ukrainian refugees reach safety through a tech-driven relief effort in Tijuana, and then saw the agentic AI revolution up close at Coder before launching Contor this year. In this episode: Why small infill sites, the ones big developers pass on, may be the key to housing supply and walkable citiesHow Contor works like an analyst you email: send an assignment and get back land use research, with sourcesWhy general-purpose chatbots fall short when you’re entitling a site or committing capitalAI agents that dig through Legistar, staff reports and years of planning commission minutes to find regulation in flight and the tenor of local politicsA Texas case study that traced ten years of approvals in about two days and found the neighborhood committee nearly always predicted the outcomeWhat AI can’t replace: relationships, strategy and meetings at the city counterServing both sides of the counter, preserving cities’ institutional memory, and a future of parcel-by-parcel planningEarly traction: roughly 55 pilots across about 80 geographies in six statesLearn more: contor.ai Send an assignment: [email protected] Contact Olya: [email protected] Connect with Olya on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/olya-krasnykh/ The Real Perspectives Podcast is produced by The Registry, covering commercial real estate.

Mark Anderson, president and CEO of MGAC, rejoins The Registry co-founder and publisher Vladimir Bosanac for an update on how his firm has grown since their pandemic-era conversation. Now about 400 people across the U.S., Canada, the UK, Australia and the EU, the project and program management consultancy turned 30 this year and has kept up its pattern of doubling in size roughly every five years. Anderson explains the three verticals behind that growth: hyperscale data centers, ultra-high-net-worth residential work, and cultural projects like museums and galleries. He makes the case that AI infrastructure spending is an existential bet for big tech, puts this year’s AI build-out in context against the interstate highways, the Manhattan Project and the moonshot combined, and explains why today’s data centers look more like warehouses than sci-fi sets. The conversation also covers construction costs and labor shortages, the uneven office recovery from Washington, D.C. to San Francisco and London, the value of staying independent in a consolidating industry, how AI is beginning to change cost modeling, and MGAC’s next moves into Australia, the Midwest and broader employee ownership. In this episode: Why a diverse mix of market sectors has helped MGAC grow through 9/11, the financial crisis and COVIDKeeping a culture intact across continents, including a company-wide retreat in Palm SpringsWhether data center demand could hit a glut like life science didHow community opposition fits against the scale of AI investmentWhy the office market is now a city-by-city storyWhat independence means when competitors are owned by brokerages or private equity

On this episode of the Real Perspectives Podcast, co-hosts Vladimir Bosanac (co-founder and publisher of The Registry) and Tom Fischer (Principal and Director of Capital Markets at JB Matheson) look at first-half 2026 multifamily data. They start with the national picture, then rank the markets The Registry covers from weakest to strongest: Texas, Southern California, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern California. Nationally, first-half absorption was the second strongest on record, and new supply has fallen back to pre-COVID levels. Banks and debt funds are lending again, and transaction volume is up about 11% year over year. Cap rates are also rising. Renewals are getting 3–4% increases, while new leases are running 3–4% negative once concessions are counted. The picture changes a lot by market. Texas is still working through record deliveries. Southern California is mostly flat, with Orange County the exception. Seattle has strong demand but still faces supply, and Bellevue led the region in rent growth. The San Francisco Bay Area is now the top multifamily market in the country, with concessions largely gone and the AI-driven demand spreading into Marin, Sonoma, and the East Bay. To close, Vlad and Tom go through U-Haul’s midyear migration data by generation. It shows who is moving to New York and the Bay Area, and who is heading for Florida and the Carolinas. In this episode: (01:41) Four takeaways from Newmark’s national Q2 multifamily report: absorption, shrinking supply, the return of bank lending, and rising transaction volume(05:12) A split rent market: renewals are up, new leases are down, and concessions are still common in the Sunbelt(08:23) The lending environment, credit spreads, and why higher rates are now showing up in cap rates(11:36) Texas: Dallas–Fort Worth turns first, Austin reaches an inflection point, and Houston lags(14:51) Why 94–95% occupancy is the point where pricing power moves back to landlords(18:43) Why deliveries as a share of existing inventory tell you more than raw unit counts(19:17) Southern California: LA, Orange County, and San Diego, plus insurance costs and LA’s Measure ULA(25:19) Institutional capital returns, and why buyers are betting on replacement cost(27:18) Seattle, Bellevue, and Tacoma: AI leasing, return-to-office mandates, and supply falling 53%(34:50) Inside JB Matheson’s sale of a 134-unit Issaquah property for about $411K per unit(38:30) Northern California: double-digit rent growth in San Francisco, disappearing concessions, and lease trade-outs(42:00) AI firms paying employees to live near the office, and what it means for rents(48:07) U-Haul’s 2026 migration trends by generation: Gen Z, Millennials, Gen X, and BoomersAbout the hosts: Vladimir Bosanac is co-founder and publisher of The Registry, which covers commercial real estate in the San Francisco Bay Area, Southern California, the Pacific Northwest, and Texas.Tom Fischer is Principal and Director of Capital Markets at JB Matheson in San Mateo, California. The firm invests in multifamily properties across the Mountain West and Pacific markets. Connect with Tom on LinkedIn

In this episode of the Real Perspectives Podcast, Vladimir Bosanac, co-founder and publisher of The Registry, and Laura Kreuger, founder and executive director of Asset Locale, talk with Chrissie Davis, president of Incorage General Contractors. Davis spent 14 years at her previous firm. She started as an assistant project manager and became president, and she helped grow the company into a $100 million-a-year business on the Bay Area's top 25 general contractors list. In early 2024, several things pushed her to go out on her own: a list of 50 executives that included only two women, a succession plan she didn't fit into, and a line from Lean In. She talks about the emotional swings of being a founder, botched payrolls included, and how she hires for a startup. The company name is an acronym for its values: Integrity, Collaboration, Regularly Achieving Goals Effectively. Top candidates write her a letter about what those values mean in their own lives. The conversation also covers: Mentorship: why she makes time to support women in construction, and an unexpected challenge she ran into early in her career.Affordable housing: the difference between "capital-A" and "lowercase-a" affordable housing, including hotel conversions, co-ops and densifying existing properties.Current projects: 90 affordable units in the North Bay and five modular tiny homes for young people leaving foster care.Tariffs: how her team kept tariff costs to about $20,000 on a $26 million project.Labor: how AI data centers are pulling subcontractors toward the top of a K-shaped economy.Outlook: what she expects for multifamily, for-sale housing and affordable housing over the next 6 to 12 months.

The Bay Area was written off as a place to make things. Now advanced manufacturers are taking most of the newest industrial space in the East Bay. On this episode of Real Perspectives, host Vladimir Bosanac (The Registry) and co-host Byron Renfro (Orchard Commercial) talk with Steve Kapp, Executive Managing Director in Newmark's San Francisco and East Bay Industrial group. They cover what's driving the demand, what these tenants need from a building, and why power has become the biggest constraint. In this episode: What "advanced manufacturing" means: Cities push back on warehouses, so developers redesigned their projects to win approvals. Kapp estimates about 80% of new builds from 2024 to 2026 are going to advanced manufacturers, not warehouse users.Manufacturing comes back: From NUMMI to Tesla, and how reshoring policy, the talent pool and the local supply chain are bringing production back to the region.The sectors behind the demand: EVs and autonomous vehicles, robotics, materials science, cleantech, biomanufacturing, data center servers, eVTOLs and energy storage.Power is the constraint: The standard 4,000-amp spec service, the first pre-leasing the market has seen (Quanta's deal with Prologis in Fremont's Bayside district), and on-site fuel cells as a stopgap.What tenants want: Speed to occupancy, power, parking and curb appeal. Kapp says rent isn't in their top five.Automation and jobs: Bay Area manufacturing employment is falling even as leasing rises. Also Figure AI at The Assembly in North San Jose, Tesla's Optimus line in Fremont, and why suppliers need to be close by.Defense tech: The Bay Area and Southern California's role in the military's move toward technology.New power coming online: LS Power's roughly $1B transmission line linking North San Jose and Fremont, PG&E substation upgrades, and grid-scale battery storage.What's next: Electric truck charging stops, Zipline's drone delivery network, the university talent pipeline, and why the FAA stands between us and flying cars.Chapters 00:00 Introductions01:01 Defining advanced manufacturing03:28 Why manufacturing left, and why it's coming back04:59 Can the Bay Area keep manufacturers as they scale?06:41 The sectors driving demand10:42 Power specs, upgrades and pre-leasing13:26 Fuel cells as a power stopgap14:51 What tenants prioritize, and where rent ranks18:21 Automation and the jobs question24:19 Figure AI, Tesla Optimus and supplier proximity29:27 Defense tech in California31:52 New transmission and substation capacity34:13 Mini data centers, nuclear, truck charging and drone delivery38:12 The talent pipeline: Stanford, Berkeley, UCSF, SJSU and SFBU40:50 When do we get flying cars?

Publisher Vladimir Bosanac talks with Evan McLeod, Principal at Palmero Partners, about the state of Puget Sound investment heading into Q3 2026. A generation of long-time private owners is exiting — retirement, rent control, pet-fee bans, aging brick buildings — while new hands-on capital moves in chasing well-located assets at bases the region hasn't seen in years. Evan opens up the operator's side too: insurance premiums doubling, summer electricity bills tripling, and the creative financing getting deals over the line. They close on TikTok's five-day return-to-office push and the electric run Seattle had hosting the World Cup. Guest: Evan McLeod, Palmero Partners Host: Vladimir Bosanac, co-founder & publisher of The Registry Chapters: 0:00 Welcome & Seattle check-in 1:50 State of Puget Sound investment 3:08 The generational ownership shift 4:52 Institutional capital returns 6:53 Construction, jobs & Green Street outlook 8:19 Insurance premiums doubling 12:10 Electricity, data centers & PG&E 17:49 Seller financing & private debt 21:19 Vacancy & return-to-office 23:19 TikTok's 5-day RTO mandate 28:47 The World Cup & Seattle sports

Host Vladimir Bosanac is joined by co-host David Arscott (CEO & Co-Founder, Baycrest Capital) for a read on the multifamily and industrial markets — then sits down with David Klein (EVP & Managing Principal, Lee & Associates SF) on the most underserved corner of life science real estate. In this episode: Multifamily is bouncing off the bottom — national vacancy near 4.3%, Bay Area rents up ~9% YoY, and Green Street projecting ~8% CAGR rent growth in Northern California over three years.Industrial is a step behind in the cycle — construction costs outpacing rent growth, small-bay and last-mile flex space holding demand while big-box supply gets absorbed.Rent control's double edge — lessons from New York's five boroughs, plus Redwood City's November ballot measure and California's Builders Remedy push.The energy question — Texas chasing a staggering 474 GW of grid demand (vs. 12.7 GW for all of PG&E territory), why the real number may be 10–20x smaller, and Google's not-quite-sci-fi pitch for data centers in space.Life science's forgotten 40% — David Klein on the "demand pyramid," why sub-10,000 SF lab space runs 0.1–2.2% vacancy while the broader market sits near 29%, and how Lab Space Directory advocates for the small tenants nobody represents.Guests: David Arscott — CEO & Co-Founder, Baycrest Capital (LinkedIn)David Klein — EVP & Managing Principal, Lee & Associates San Francisco (LinkedIn)

The Bay Area multifamily market keeps getting "wilder and wilder." In this episode, host Vladimir Bosanac (co-founder and publisher of The Registry) sits down with Dave Saxe, Managing Principal at Calvera Partners, to unpack why San Francisco has become arguably the strongest multifamily market in the country — with 25–30% lease trade-outs, vacancy at a 20-year low, and the AI boom pulling equity back to a region investors were fleeing just a few years ago. From there the conversation widens out: which markets are next in line (Seattle, Austin, and a sleeper pick in Orange County), what's really happening with interest rates and inflation heading into 2027, and where distress and deal flow might finally open up. The pair close with two "Microscope / Telescope" segments — the newly passed 21st Century Road to Housing Act and California's decision to sue five cities over housing — plus the eye-opening economic numbers rolling in from World Cup host cities. Chapters / timestamps * (00:00) Welcome and episode roadmap * (02:10) SF multifamily: 25–30% lease trade-outs, 8–10%+ market rent growth, 20-year-low vacancy * (04:21) Rent-to-income ratio and how much runway is left (Green Street's ~8% 3-year CAGR) * (06:45) The ripple effect — Oakland, the Peninsula, Silicon Valley, and market cyclicality * (08:50) Investor appetite: capital flips back to the Bay Area, but deals are slim pickings * (10:44) Supply crunch — inclusionary housing cuts, impact fees, union costs, ~5.25% return on cost * (13:08) Lending: open for existing product, tighter for new construction * (15:09) Other markets — Austin: supply glut, has it found a bottom? * (16:24) Seattle / Puget Sound: AI hiring, life science, cheaper housing, politics * (20:45) Orange County: the defense-AI sleeper pick * (23:03) Interest rates & inflation — core CPI ~3.2%, 6.5%+ mortgages, the "new normal" * (26:08) The refinance wall and where distress could open up deal flow * (27:48) REITs, cost of capital, and the Essex/EQR "we love the Bay Area" story * (31:52) Microscope/Telescope: the 21st Century Road to Housing Act (passed 85–5) * (33:56) California sues five cities over housing — Half Moon Bay, Huntington Beach * (37:03) World Cup economics — San Jose watch parties, NY/NJ's $2.1B impact, Seattle merchants

Vlad and Laura sit down to trace a single thread running through three of the biggest shifts in how — and where — we work. They open with China's startling leap into an AI-and-gig-powered labor force (44% of workers now in the gig economy) and what a number like that would mean for a U.S. system built around employer-provided healthcare, pensions, and the 9-to-5. From there, they turn to "the great handoff": the trillions of dollars in small-business ownership changing hands as baby boomers retire, why so many viable companies may simply close for lack of a succession plan, and the overlooked opportunity for young people to buy a business rather than build one from scratch. Finally, they map Gen Z's move toward tier-two and tier-three towns in search of a slower, more affordable life — and what that migration means for Waymos and driver's licenses, for population trends, and for the fight over where data centers get built. It's a wide-ranging, optimistic conversation about disruption, adaptation, and the chance to do things better. Key Takeaways China already has ~44% of its labor force in the gig economy, offering a preview of an AI-shaped workforce the U.S. safety net isn't structured for.Automation is reshaping jobs more than simply eliminating them — but the U.S. reliance on employers for healthcare and retirement makes the transition higher-stakes here.~45% of privately held Bay Area businesses are owned by baby boomers; without succession plans, many profitable, viable companies risk closing rather than transferring.Buying an established small business can be lower-risk than founding one — over 70–80% of startups fail within a few years, while acquisition comes with an existing customer base and financing tools like SBA loans.Gen Z is increasingly prioritizing rest, health, and affordability, fueling migration to tier-two and tier-three "Zoom towns" and revitalizing smaller communities.Fewer teens are getting driver's licenses, and developers are already designing for a lower-car future (e.g., convertible parking garages).The data-center backlash is bipartisan; the path forward may be requiring facilities to generate their own clean power and recycle water so they become a community asset, not a burden.HostsVladimir Bosanac — Co-host; publisher and co-founder of The Registry. Laura Kreuger — Co-host; third-generation real estate investor and founder of Asset Locale, focused on property-management operations and technology.

Hosts: Vladimir Bosanac, Co-Founder & Publisher of The Registry, and Tom Fischer, Principal and Director of Capital Markets at JB Matteson In this episode, Vlad and Tom trace how the West Coast's commercial real estate map is being redrawn — from a defense-tech boom reshaping Southern California, to the mounting political fight over AI data centers, to an industrial sector cooling off its pandemic-era peak, and the interest-rate and geopolitical crosscurrents pressuring multifamily. They close with a lighthearted look at one surprisingly recession-proof, AI-proof career. What they get into: Southern California's defense-tech surge and why the "script has flipped" from Silicon Valley — funding still flows from the north, but the hardware expertise, machine shops, skilled manufacturing labor, and legacy footprint (Northrop, Raytheon, Boeing, SpaceX, Anduril) are concentrated in the south. El Segundo, once a Standard Oil refinery town, now reportedly boasts the second-highest density of PhDs in California. Emerging occupiers like Flight Wave Aerospace, True Anomaly, Trino Manufacturing, Heart Aerospace, and Millennium Space Systems are taking 30,000–90,000 SF and poised to grow, with lessons from Ukraine and the Middle East driving demand for cheaper, AI-enabled, autonomous systems. The growing backlash against AI data centers, including New York Governor Hochul's one-year moratorium on hyperscaler builds, pauses in Seattle and Monterey Park, and local opposition in California. Tom and Vlad debate the "build vs. pause" framing, the geopolitical stakes of ceding the AI race to China, and practical middle-ground solutions — closed-loop water systems, bringing your own power, micro-nuclear, solar, and waste-heat reuse (à la Microsoft's Finland projects) — plus the regulatory bottlenecks (eight-year utility hookups, Three Mile Island's restart) standing in the way. The industrial market's reset: despite bearish headlines, national vacancy sits around 7% with positive net absorption (~62M SF in Q2, ~113–114M SF YTD per Cushman & Wakefield). The Inland Empire — the country's largest industrial market — has climbed to 8.8% vacancy with values off roughly 40% from their 2022 peak, while LA (4.2%) and Chicago (4.8%) hold firm. Construction has fallen ~30% off the ~1B SF boom peak to about 305M SF underway, as tariffs, oversupply, and higher cap rates push tenants toward renewals over expansion. The macroeconomic overlay: the unraveling Middle East MOU, oil and inflation risk, and a 10-year Treasury up ~15–20 bps across the curve — and what it means for multifamily transaction volume, rent growth (SF ~4.5% YoY per Yardi, San Jose ~1%, Sacramento ~0.5%), and JB Matteson's fundamentals-driven acquisition approach in a market where capital is on the sidelines. And to close, the microscope/telescope segment: why elevator mechanics in San Francisco pull $130K+ salaries with ironclad job security, aging century-old building stock, and a wry conversation about which jobs survive the rise of "physical AI" and robotics. Notable moment: "A decision deferred is a decision made — is not a good rule to live by." — on data center moratoriums. Chapters: (00:00) Intro — anchoring the Bay Area from San Jose and San Francisco(01:00) Defense tech's move to Southern California(13:10) Data centers, AI, and the moratorium debate(24:36) The industrial market reset(35:08) Macro drivers: interest rates, the Middle East, and multifamily(42:40) Microscope/Telescope: elevator mechanics and the AI-proof job

On this episode of the Real Perspectives Podcast, Chris Freise gives a rare up-and-down-the-coast view of commercial real estate as someone who invests, operates, and develops across all three major West Coast metros. The conversation digs into Redco's contrarian office thesis — buying San Francisco office with debt when nearly everyone else was forced to pay all cash — and how the AI leasing recovery arrived faster than Chris expected. He talks through the 400,000-square-foot Wells Fargo building on California Street, why 28,000-square-foot floor plates are a decisive advantage, and how the market has shifted from small tenants to a hunt for 100,000-to-400,000-square-foot users. On culture, Chris argues the amenities war still comes down to food and hospitality more than saunas and cold plunges, using Redco's 28 Utah project as an example. The group then works through the regional picture: San Francisco's surprising retail rebound (Antitown Coffee coming to 300 California), Seattle trailing the cycle by 12 to 24 months with Anthropic's lease as a first real AI flag, and Southern California's distress in land and office alongside the hard-to-crack Inland Empire industrial market. A central thread is power as the new currency — how tenants over-ask for amperage they often don't use, PG&E's surcharge risk, the Hayward building Redco delivered with New York Life, and the strange case of a 12-megawatt substation for sale on just 20,000 square feet. On capital, Chris explains why institutional money is piling into the two "food groups" — industrial (increasingly advanced manufacturing) and multifamily — compressing cap rates, pushing land prices up 20 to 25 percent, and reshaping the math on ground-up development. Rob and Chris also trade notes on design and placemaking, from the Hayward R&D building to why Seattle's design-review culture produces better architecture. The episode closes on Harrington's Bar and Grill at 245 Front Street — a 1935 immigrant-founded pub Redco saved from becoming something else, now posting record sales as a living symbol of San Francisco's downtown recovery. Timestamps(00:00) Intro and welcome(00:53) The Redco story: two brothers, three metros, and the "Robert Edward Daniels" name(04:26) The office thesis — buying with debt when everyone else paid cash(05:02) The AI recovery and the 400K-sf Wells Fargo building(07:16) How deep is demand for 200K–400K-sf blocks?(10:22) Building culture in AI offices: why food still wins(12:29) Downtown and retail recovery; Antitown Coffee at 300 California(14:19) Seattle and SoCal: why local politics drives the investment climate(17:10) The housing-supply debate and Seattle's overbuild(19:54) What needs to change to unlock Bay Area housing starts(20:39) Palo Alto's fish-market site and a 400-unit outlier(22:53) Southern California: distressed office, land, and the Inland Empire(28:40) Power as a make-or-break issue for tenants(32:22) PG&E, surcharges, and power as benefit and risk(36:04) Where the money wants to go: industrial and multifamily(40:20) Sunnyvale, UPS, and land prices climbing 20–25%(46:00) Design, placemaking, and the Hayward R&D building(52:59) Harrington's Bar and Grill: a 1935 pub as a recovery barometer(58:29) Closing thoughts

Vladimir Bosanac, co-founder and publisher of The Registry, welcomes back David Arscott of Baycrest Capital for another wide-ranging look at the forces shaping commercial real estate. They open on a striking headline: second-quarter construction deliveries have fallen to their lowest level since 2011 — fifteen years ago — as rising costs, softening valuations, and oversupply in hot markets like Austin, Denver, and Miami finally catch up with development pipelines. Yet on the ground in the Bay Area, contractors still can't hire fast enough, a paradox David and Vlad trace to the one corner of construction that's booming: data centers. From there the conversation turns to the surge of new capital flooding into data centers, where vacancy sits near zero and investment has overtaken office. But the boom is drawing pushback — Monterey Park has banned new data centers outright and Seattle has imposed a 12-month moratorium — pushing development toward friendlier markets and raising hard questions about energy. Vlad and David dig into the grid constraints, the politics of green versus fossil energy, and why nuclear (and micro-nuclear) may finally get its moment. The pair then examine the emerging value play in beaten-down urban cores, using the takeback of 415 Natoma — San Francisco's newest office tower, recently trading around $300 a foot versus the $900-plus of the last cycle — as a case study in how a lower basis resets what a building can lease for. With Northmarq's Jeff Whitehell recently estimating the market is only about halfway through its distressed-asset cycle, they see more value-add and distress ahead over the next 12–18 months. Finally, they weigh Goldman Sachs' 15% recession odds against a hawkish Fed, stubborn inflation, and the elephant in the room: AI valuations. Drawing parallels to the dot-com bust, they debate whether an AI correction would stay contained among private companies or ripple through pension funds and the broader economy — while agreeing the underlying technology, like the internet before it, isn't going anywhere. In the closing "Microscope / Telescope" segment, they zoom in on how looming AI IPOs are already pushing luxury home prices higher (with all-cash Bay Area deals now topping $1,700 a foot), the wildcard of a first-ever recorded U.S. population decline, and a Phoenix industrial market that swung from 4% to 12% vacancy in two years — where a fresh $122 million JLL bridge loan signals renewed confidence and the growing mainstreaming of bridge lending. Topics & timestamps(00:01) Intro — Welcome and catching up(01:10) Construction deliveries hit lowest level since 2011 — Rising costs, softening valuations, and the lag between planning and delivery(04:31) The labor paradox — Why Bay Area contractors still can't hire despite a national slowdown(06:42) New capital floods into data centers — Investment overtaking office; near-zero vacancy(08:26) The pushback — Monterey Park's ban, Seattle's moratorium, and where development migrates next(12:04) The energy question — Grid limits, renewables, and the case for nuclear(16:19) The urban-core value play — 415 Natoma, lower basis, and the distress cycle (with a nod to Northmarq's Jeff Whitehell)(23:07) Employment stays resilient — Low unemployment amid economic crosswinds(24:00) Recession odds & the AI valuation risk — Goldman's 15%, a hawkish Fed, and dot-com parallels(32:06) Microscope / Telescope: AI IPOs & housing — Luxury home prices, all-cash deals, and a shrinking population(38:07) Phoenix industrial boom-bust — 4% to 12% vacancy, a $122M bridge loan, and bridge lending going mainstream

In this episode of the Real Perspectives Podcast, co-host Vladimir Bosanac (co-founder and publisher of The Registry) sits down with David Saxe (co-founder and managing principal of Calvera Partners) to unpack how the coming wave of AI IPOs is reshaping the Bay Area's commercial real estate landscape — and why this boom looks fundamentally different from the ones before it. Drawing on David's early career at Sam Zell's Equity Office, the two trace the lessons of the dot-com collapse against today's revenue-backed AI giants, then follow the ripple effects outward: from San Francisco's surging rents to Oakland's uneasy recovery, the Sunbelt's oversupply reckoning, and the Midwest's turn in the "musical chairs" of multifamily investing. They close with a look at interest rates, the condo-killing Right to Repair Act, and the rise of bridge lending as a mainstream financing tool. What we get into: Why the AI IPO wave concentrates wealth in hundreds of people rather than thousands — and what that means for housing demandLessons from the dot-com bust: Sand Hill Road rents "falling off a cliff" and why revenue changes the story this timeSan Francisco rents up 9–11%, CoStar projecting another 6–7%, and lease trade-outs hitting 25%The Oakland question: does the boom always spread east, and does governance slow it down?Housing element mandates, El Camino Real, and whether California can build its way outThe affordable-vs-luxury housing debate — and why "just build units" keeps coming upAustin and Dallas as cautionary tales: record supply, rents down 20%, and investors drifting to the MidwestSeattle, Southern California, the Inland Empire, and Builders RemedyHow leadership and politics (Lurie in SF, new mayors in Seattle and NYC) factor into developmentInterest rates: three big banks now projecting two hikes next year, and the end of "wait for rates to drop"Microscope/Telescope — David on SB 800's Right to Repair Act and the chilling effect on condo development; Vladimir on the $900B maturity wall driving bridge lending mainstreamChapters: (00:10) Welcome and intros(01:43) The impending AI IPOs and a new concentration of wealth(02:50) Why this isn't the dot-com boom — revenue vs. hype(04:37) Lessons from Sam Zell, Equity Office, and Sand Hill Road(08:06) SF rent surge and the spread across the Bay(11:24) CoStar projections, lease trade-outs, and the Oakland debate(15:19) Development, the housing element, and a 300-unit surprise in Sausalito(19:49) Affordable vs. luxury: the "just build units" case(21:06) Austin, Dallas, and the Sunbelt oversupply story(23:59) Seattle and Southern California supply dynamics(26:46) Leadership, politics, and how much a mayor really moves the needle(32:22) Interest rates, inflation, and the end of "lend and extend" optimism(36:34) Value-add opportunities in the outer rings(38:15) Job market resilience and a nation of longer-term renters(41:53) Microscope/Telescope: the Right to Repair Act and bridge lendingThe Real Perspectives Podcast is produced by The Registry. Subscribe for candid conversations on the forces shaping commercial real estate.

On this episode of the Real Perspectives Podcast, co-host and Registry co-founder/publisher Vladimir Bosanac sits down with Laura Kreuger, Founder & Executive Director of Asset Locale Property Management, for a wide-ranging conversation on where residential and commercial real estate are headed. A third-generation Silicon Valley real estate investor, Laura shares how she grew up showing properties alongside her parents, launched Asset Locale two years ago, and now manages both short- and long-term rentals across the South Bay — all while keeping her mother's rule that you should never own or manage a property you wouldn't live in yourself. From the rise of "Instagram-worthy" spaces to balcony solar panels and the persistent puzzle of empty ground-floor retail, Vladimir and Laura dig into the forces reshaping how people live, shop, work, and connect in a post-COVID world. In this episode: The hospitality-fication of real estate — Why residents now compare their apartment building to Airbnb, the Four Seasons, Apple, and Equinox, and how operators are competing on experience, connection, and a sense of belonging rather than location alone.Designing with purpose — How generational shifts (millennials and younger renters prioritizing well-being and mental health) are pushing developers toward spaces that feel good, not just look good, across multifamily, office, retail, and even life science.FIFA comes to the West Coast — What the World Cup means for Bay Area cities, the Airbnb hosting boom, San Jose Airport's AI concierge, and how smaller cities (think Nashville and Austin) can use big events as a catalyst for lasting tourism and identity.Retail as experience — Warby Parker, IKEA, and the return of touch-and-feel storefronts, plus why getting customers through the door still drives bigger baskets.The ground-floor retail dilemma — Why city-mandated retail so often sits vacant, the case for smaller flex spaces and niche operators (yes, including Puppy Yoga), the power of habit formation during initial lease-up, and how public-private partnerships and live-work models could finally activate these spaces.Microscope / Telescope — Two closing spotlights: plug-in "balcony solar" (over a million installs in Germany, now moving through legislation in 30+ U.S. states) and the CREW Network 2025 Benchmark Study, where Laura — this year's CREW Silicon Valley President — unpacks a narrowing pay gap (down to ~4%), stubborn representation numbers (women still ~38% of the industry, just 9% in the C-suite), and the urgent need for mentorship and awareness of the many career paths within commercial real estate.About the guest: Laura Kreuger is the Founder & Executive Director of Asset Locale Property Management in Campbell, CA, and the 2025 President of CREW Silicon Valley, an organization supporting women in commercial real estate. Web: www.assetlocale.com · Email: [email protected] · Phone: 408.410.5242 · DRE #01890091 Hosted by: Vladimir Bosanac, Co-Founder & Publisher of The Registry

On this special episode of Real Perspectives, host Vladimir Bosanac, co-founder and publisher of The Registry, sits down with Jordan Angel, Senior Managing Director at JLL Capital Markets and current president of the San Francisco Bay Area chapter of NAIOP — now rebranding as CREDA, the Commercial Real Estate Development Association. Effective July 1, the name change is more than cosmetic. Angel explains that it grew out of a practical problem: when members walked into meetings with legislators in Sacramento and on Capitol Hill, they spent half the conversation explaining what "NAIOP" stood for. "Commercial Real Estate Development Association" needs no translation — and it better reflects an organization whose members build multifamily, hospitality, and retail, not just the office and industrial product the original acronym implied. The conversation covers the chapter's history, its role in state and local advocacy, and what Angel hopes CREDA looks like in five years. What's discussed: Why the rebrand happened now, and why the driving factor was advocacy, not marketingInternal friction on the national board — and the unglamorous reality of reprinting mugs, flyers, and tableclothsHow the shift is already growing multifamily membership in San FranciscoThe Bay Area chapter: founded in 1977, ~750 members, 50+ events a year, serving eight of nine Bay Area countiesLegislative watch: San Francisco's transfer tax, and a bill clearing the commercial permit backlog that just passed Assembly AppropriationsMayor Daniel Lurie at the chapter's annual symposium, express bus restoration, and signs of downtown's returnWhy California legislation is "tip of the spear" for the rest of the countryThe chapter's annual proptech event and the value of sitting at the intersection of tech and real estateAngel's advice for younger professionals — and what he's gotten out of two decades of membershipGuest: Jordan Angel, Senior Managing Director, JLL Capital Markets; President, CREDA San Francisco Bay Area Host: Vladimir Bosanac, Co-founder & Publisher, The Registry