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State-contingent debt instruments gain traction in restructurings as sovereign defaults rise

2024/02/20

These instruments provide flexibility on debt-service payments and can help bridge differences in restructuring talks. Protracted talks delay critical structural reforms and increase default risk.

Emerging market central banks lower rates while US Fed signals rate cuts are not imminent

2024/02/05

Recent interest rate cuts in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Hungary are among the signs that EM financial conditions are improving. The primary market for EM bond issuance is likely to remain strong.

Middle East, North Africa credit conditions are stable in 2024 despite elevated geopolitical risks

2024/01/22

Conditions are more stable for sovereigns, banks and companies in the Gulf Cooperation Council region than in North Africa and Levant. An escalation of the Israel-Hamas military conflict is main risk.

Five top-of-mind credit stories for EM sovereign investors in 2024

2024/01/08

Redefault risk in Argentina, general elections in South Africa, financial conditions and debt affordability in Egypt, monetary policy in Turkiye and economic growth in China are top stories this year.

COP28 climate summit highlights carbon transition risks for emerging markets

2023/11/27

Carbon transition, adaptation to climate change and climate finance – core topics at COP28 – are crucial for EMs because of their exposure to environmental risks and limited capacity to respond.

Economic considerations underpin stable emerging market 2024 outlook

2023/11/16

EM GDP growth will slow, largely because of China’s slowdown. Export-led EMs will suffer from weak global trade activity, but domestic-focused EMs will fare better. Pockets of inflation risk exist.

Emerging market central banks reassess pace of monetary easing as US Fed holds rates for longer

2023/10/30

Continued high US interest rates, strong US dollar and possible rise in commodity prices mean EM central banks are likely to recalibrate the pace, if not the depth, of their interest rate cuts.

A focus on emerging markets as bond yields and oil prices oscillate, plus a deep dive on Egypt

2023/10/16

This podcast episode examines the effect of interest-rate and oil-price volatility on EM, inflation in Asia and Central-Eastern Europe, monetary policy in LatAm and Egypt’s weakening credit quality.

How recent US, UK, euro area monetary policy decisions, US dollar strength affect emerging markets

2023/10/02

Moody’s strategists discuss recent central bank decisions, EM financial conditions, US dollar strength and EM currency weakness, Poland’s election and India’s inclusion in an EM government bond index.

Disinflation continues in EMs; Mexico’s industrial production rises; Gabon’s outlook turns negative

2023/09/18

Moody’s analysts discuss the country-specific reasons inflation is slowing in emerging markets; why Mexico’s industrial production is increasing; and how Gabon’s coup factored into its outlook change.

Stress in China’s property sector has potential knock-on effects across multiple sectors

2023/09/08

In this episode, Moody’s analysts discuss the reasons for the current property-sector stress and the potential effects for developers, banks that finance them, local authorities and the economy.

More emerging market sovereigns pursue debt-for-nature swaps to reduce debt burdens

2023/08/23

Moody’s analysts discuss the growing use – and credit effect – of these transactions amid some sovereigns’ debt sustainability concerns and a need to invest in climate initiatives.