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Midterm years have historically been among the weakest for stocks, so should you pull your money out before November 3? Justin Dyer and Mena Hanna make the case for voting at the ballot box, not with your portfolio. Mena walks through the midterm "scouting report" and why 2026, a midterm year, has gone the other way so far, while Justin explains why 16 elections are too few to build a decision on. They rank the forces that actually move markets (interest rates, inflation, geopolitics, energy and AI), explain why midterms work more like a front-office reshuffle than a game-changer, and look back at a year when a new war, an energy shock and rising rates couldn't stop markets from climbing a wall of worry. Then Mena asks Justin the billion-dollar question: what is he doing with his own money as Election Day approaches? His answer: nothing different, because the plan was built for every path. Connect with Us Call or text us: 626-862-0355Website: https://www.athletefamilyoffice.com/?utm_source=awm-capital&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=ep-275-midterms-money&utm_content=show-notesYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCc1NxpK21N1vKWEExC45YEALinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/awmcapital/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/awmcapital/X: https://twitter.com/awmcapitalFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/awmcapital/Chapters [00:00] Preview: Why Justin invests his own money exactly the way AWM recommends, and why your vote shouldn't steer your portfolio. [00:25] Intro: Midterms and your money, and why we vote at the ballot box, not with the portfolio. [02:23] The Midterm Scouting Report: Why midterm years have historically lagged, and how 2026 has broken the pattern so far. [03:08] Sixteen At-Bats: Why a small sample can't carry an investment decision. [04:02] Robustness Over FOMO: How much confidence a decision deserves, from election years to chasing the next SpaceX. [06:13] The Year After: Post-midterm trends, and why they're probably noise for a 100-year family. [07:34] The Real Market Movers: Markets as a digestive system, why rates, inflation, geopolitics, energy and AI outrank the election, and midterms as a front-office reshuffle. [09:56] A Year In The Red: War, energy and rates, and markets still hit a home run. [11:00] A Wall Of Worry: Why corrections are healthy and why volatility is the source of expected return. [12:52] The Billion-Dollar Question: What Justin is doing with his own money before the midterms, and why the plan comes first.

The regular season is over for most of Major League Baseball, and this off-season comes with a question nobody can answer yet: when does the next paycheck arrive?  With the collective bargaining agreement expiring December 1, Justin Dyer and Mena Hanna explain why uncertainty makes an off-season financial plan more important, not less. They walk through the six-month spending window AWM builds for clients in short-term Treasuries, why you should plan your financial off-season the way you plan your training, and why a compressed career turns every season into a "lion year" that magnifies good and bad decisions alike. Then they turn to Warren Buffett, whose discipline, modest lifestyle and patience show what decades of compounding can do, and why athletes who start in their 20s and 30s hold a real head start. Connect With Us Call or text us: 626-862-0355Website: https://www.athletefamilyoffice.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCc1NxpK21N1vKWEExC45YEALinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/awmcapital/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/awmcapital/X: https://twitter.com/awmcapitalFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/awmcapital/Chapters00:00 Preview: Lockout uncertainty, a compressed career and living in lion years.00:48 Intro: The end of the MLB season and why the off-season needs a financial plan.01:54 The CBA And The Last Paycheck: Moving from contributions to distributions as the CBA expires.03:43 Plan It Like You Train: First principles, and why the financial off-season mirrors the physical one.05:03 The Six-Month Spending Window: Short-term Treasuries set aside for off-season spending.07:04 Control What You Can Control: The costs of veering from the plan.08:16 A Compressed Earning Window: Why a short career magnifies good and bad decisions, and why every season is a lion year.10:19 The Buffett Lesson: Discipline, living within your means and letting money compound.12:28 Your Time Advantage: Why athletes in their 20s and 30s are in a fortunate position.15:01 Wrap-Up: Plans for the off-season and for left-tail events.

The Federal Reserve just raised interest rates for the first time in years, and the headline matters well beyond Wall Street. In this episode of AWM Insights, Justin Dyer and Mena Hanna explain why the Fed hit the brakes, what a quarter-point hike means for anyone borrowing to buy a home, and why the Fed can't fix every driver of inflation, from oil prices to conflict overseas. Then they turn to what matters most for investors: how rate moves hit portfolios. Using a boat, a water level and an anchor, they show why savers can come out ahead when rates rise, why one-size-fits-all bond allocations can leave families exposed, and how shorter-term, liability-matched fixed income keeps a 100-year plan steady whether rates rise or fall. Connect With Us Call or text us: 626-862-0355Website: https://www.athletefamilyoffice.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCc1NxpK21N1vKWEExC45YEALinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/awmcapital/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/awmcapital/X: https://twitter.com/awmcapitalFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/awmcapital/Chapters00:00 Preview: The speed limit, the water level and the anchor. 00:45 Why Interest Rates Matter: Why a topic that sounds dry affects everyone, and the Fed's first hike in years. 02:44 Why The Fed Raised Rates: Inflation, a quarter-point hike and lowering the economy's speed limit. 04:20 What Higher Rates Mean For You: Pricier borrowing, bigger mortgage payments and a more constrained buying pool. 05:38 Not A Perfect Machine: Oil prices, the Middle East and the limits of what the Fed can control. 07:05 Rates As The Water Level: Why rate moves barely change our decision-making, and why savers can come out ahead. 08:04 Too Much Interest Rate Exposure: How one-size-fits-all portfolios like 60/40 get hurt when rates rise, and why we favor shorter-term fixed income. 11:10 Fixed Income As The Anchor: Why the anchor has to be sized to the boat. 13:02 Don't Predict The Water Level: Forecasting rates versus immunizing portfolios. 14:35 Wrap-Up: Rates, the global economy and protecting the 1Hundred Year Family plan.

Markets, inflation, elections and geopolitics all shape the numbers on your screen, and none of them are yours to control. In this episode of AWM Insights, Justin Dyer and Mena Hanna return to one of the most powerful reminders in investing: control what you can control. They break down the structural controllables, like your savings rate, your spending and the levers that influence taxes, and the behavioral ones that trip up even disciplined investors: chasing hype, concentrating at the wrong time, neglecting diversification and living on a steady information diet of hype and doom. They close on the hardest discipline of all: recognizing that sometimes doing nothing is the best action you can take. Connect With Us Call or text us: 626-862-0355Website: https://www.athletefamilyoffice.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCc1NxpK21N1vKWEExC45YEALinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/awmcapital/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/awmcapital/X: https://twitter.com/awmcapitalFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/awmcapital/Chapters[00:00] Control What You Can Control: Why the simplest reminder in investing is also one of the most powerful.[00:27] What's In Your Hands: Elections, geopolitics and markets vs. behavior, spending and taxes. [01:29] Savings Rate Comes First: Inflows minus outflows, and why discipline around a plan matters. [02:50] Structural Controllables: Dollars and cents, and why overspending is a sunk cost. [03:08] Behavioral Controllables: Keeping up with the Joneses and the pull of material things. [03:58] Chasing Hype: Concentration, asset selection and the cost of the shiny object. [04:32] When Behavior Becomes Structural: How chasing hype creates structural problems, and the diversification gap. [05:12] Your Information Diet: How social media and the news feed hype loops and doom loops. [06:46] The Uncontrollables: Markets and inflation, and controlling your reaction to them. [08:44] Keep It Simple: Why the basics are hard to act on, and why they matter.

Leverage is the sharpest tool in the financial toolkit, and like any sharp tool, it can help you build or it can cut you. In this episode of AWM Insights, Justin Dyer and Mena Hanna break down the difference between consumption leverage and balance sheet leverage, why a 30-year mortgage and a margin loan carry completely different risks, and the guardrails we use before any family borrows against a portfolio: sizing, timing, break-even, the cushion test, and a real repayment plan. The short answer is "it depends," and the biggest variable is who controls the situation. We close with Charlie Munger's famous warning about the three ways a smart person goes broke, and why leverage is the one that can turn volatility into permanent loss.Connect With Us Call or text us: 626-862-0355Website: https://www.athletefamilyoffice.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCc1NxpK21N1vKWEExC45YEALinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/awmcapital/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/awmcapital/X: https://twitter.com/awmcapitalFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/awmcapital/Chapters [00:00] Introduction — Why leverage is the sharpest tool in the toolkit, and why the short answer is "it depends."[01:44] The Many Flavors Of Borrowing — Credit cards, lifestyle financing, mortgages, car loans, and student debt.[03:19] Debt Isn't A Moral Question — Consumption leverage vs. balance sheet leverage, and the mortgage as an advance against human capital.[05:21] Borrowing Instead Of Selling — Using leverage to fund spending without realizing a taxable gain, and why it gets complicated.[06:04] Timing And Sizing — Why financing everything to stay invested is a slippery slope, and how margin calls happen in a sell-off.[07:33] Who Controls The Situation? — Mortgages vs. margin vs. pledged asset lines.[10:07] The Break-Even And Cushion Tests — What the loan really costs vs. the tax hit, and how much room you have if things go wrong.[11:41] Repayment And The Weight Room — Why every loan needs a payoff plan, and what lifting weights teaches us about risk.[12:50] Liquor, Ladies, And Leverage — Charlie Munger's warning, and how leverage converts volatility into permanent loss.[14:07] Closing — Send us your questions and feedback.

After three episodes with Roger Ferguson Jr. on building a 1Hundred Year Family, Justin and Mena sit down with his son, Roger Ferguson III, an Investment Manager at AWM, to reflect on what it’s like to grow up inside those lessons and why generation two, not generation one, is where families actually keep or lose their wealth. *Connect with Us*• Call or text us: 626-862-0355• Website: https://www.athletefamilyoffice.com/• YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCc1NxpK21N1vKWEExC45YEA• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/awmcapital/• Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/awmcapital/• X: https://twitter.com/awmcapital• Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/awmcapital/ *Chapter*[00:00] Introduction: Justin and Mena welcome Roger Ferguson III to reflect on the three-part series with his father, Roger Ferguson Jr.[00:02] Roger reflects on interviewing his dad and discovering lessons he didn’t realize were being taught.[00:03] Why Generation Two Is The Real Test: “It’s not the first generation you have to worry about, it’s gen two and beyond.”[00:05] The Power Of Repetition: How hearing the same lessons for thirty-plus years built the instinct to make better decisions.[00:09] Values In Practice, Not Just Words: Diversification, right-sized positions, and saving relentlessly as lived principles.[00:11] The CEO Who Sat In The Middle Seat: Living the say-do ratio, no matter the title or the balance.[00:15] Discipline Over Dollars: Why more resources demand more discipline, especially in a social-media-comparison world.[00:16] Rethinking “$100 Million Isn’t Enough”: Unpacking the generational wealth debate and the power of compounding time.[00:20] Closing Thoughts: Own your wealth, make an impact, always be a pro.

In Part 3 of our conversation with Roger Ferguson Jr., former Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve and former President and CEO of TIAA, we get tactical. We ask his opinion about Odell Beckham Jr.'s claim that $100 million isn't enough to build generational wealth, and Ferguson agrees and disagrees in the same breath: the number is real, but the math of a multi-generational family changes everything. From there, the conversation moves through diversification, spotting real opportunity versus hype, the investing mistakes he'd never repeat, and the mentors who shaped how he thinks about wealth. He closes with the phrase he'd put on a billboard for the next generation: and it isn't about money at all. Connect with Us Call or text us: 626-862-0355Website: https://www.athletefamilyoffice.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCc1NxpK21N1vKWEExC45YEALinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/awmcapital/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/awmcapital/X: https://twitter.com/awmcapitalFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/awmcapital/Chapters[00:00] Ferguson's advice to his 20-year-old self: save relentlessly and start now[01:39] Is $100 Million Enough?[04:13] Diversification As A Discipline[07:01] Spotting Real Opportunity vs. Hype[10:45] Investing Mistakes He Wouldn't Repeat[13:38] Mentors, EQ, and IQ[15:28] Ferguson's closing wisdom for the next generation

In Part 2 of our three-part series, Roger Ferguson Jr. gives his unfiltered read on the Fed's credibility under new Chair Kevin Warsh, compares today's AI investment boom to the dot-com bubble he watched unfold as Fed Vice Chairman, and shares what actually worries him about the future of capitalism. Connect with Us: Call or text us: 626-862-0355Website: https://www.athletefamilyoffice.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCc1NxpK21N1vKWEExC45YEALinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/awmcapital/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/awmcapital/X: https://twitter.com/awmcapitalFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/awmcapital/Chapters[00:00] The state of the Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh[01:02] The Fed's five-year miss[03:13] How much patience the market will give the new chair[04:46] AI vs. the dot-com bubble[08:17] Where systemic risk actually sits this time[09:17] The Fed's blind spot[10:32] What Ferguson is optimistic about[10:59] What keeps him up at night

Roger Ferguson Jr. has held two of the most consequential seats in American finance: Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve and, later, CEO of TIAA, where he nearly tripled assets under management while steering the company through the Global Financial Crisis, COVID, and more. In Part 1 of our three-part conversation, Roger traces the dining-room-table discipline that shaped him, his philosophy on raising kids who earn their own confidence, and the preparation habits that turned "Roger who?" into the Fed's second-most-powerful voice in under two years, all the way through to the values-driven investing chapter he's building now. Connect with Us Call or text us: 626-862-0355Website: https://www.athletefamilyoffice.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCc1NxpK21N1vKWEExC45YEALinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/awmcapital/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/awmcapital/X: https://twitter.com/awmcapitalFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/awmcapital/Chapters[00:00] Introduction[00:02] The Dining Room Table[00:08] Money As A Tool, Not A Scorecard[00:16] Sweeping The Shed At Harvard[00:22] Raising Kids Who Earn Their Confidence[00:29] Meeting His Wife and Co-CEO[00:34] From "Roger Who?" To Vice Chairman of the Fed[00:47] Compete, Don't Compare[00:52] Taking Over TIAA In The Eye Of The GFC[01:04] Knowing When To Leave[01:09] What's Next[01:12] Do Well And Do Good #RogerFergusonJr #FederalReserve #TIAA #1hundredyearfamily #generationalwealth #financialliteracy #crisisleadership #deferredgratification #GlobalFinancialCrisis #mentalperformance #AWMCapital #AthleteFamilyOffice

In this episode of AWM Insights, Justin Dyer and Mena Hanna take you behind the headlines to dissect why great products like Nike don’t always translate to great investments. They break down recent events in the world of apparel stocks, share stories that resonate with athlete families, and dig into the pitfalls of hype-driven investing. Packed with sharp data points, memorable anecdotes, and proven wisdom, this episode challenges conventional thinking and emphasizes the timeless value of patience, discipline, and diversification for building multi-generational wealth. Tune in for practical lessons that will strengthen your family's long-term financial game plan. Chapters(00:00) When Great Products Don’t Mean Great Investments(02:00) Nike’s Wild Ride and Valuation Lessons(06:00) The Trap of Hype and Headline Chasing(09:00) The Importance of Patience and Discipline(11:00) Long-Term Returns and Diversification Wisdom Connect with Us• Call or text us: 626-862-0355• Website: https://www.athletefamilyoffice.com/• YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCc1NxpK21N1vKWEExC45YEA• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/awmcapital/• Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/awmcapital/• X: https://twitter.com/awmcapital• Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/awmcapital/

Join hosts Justin Dyer and Mena Hanna as they unpack a common investing misconception: the idea that loving a product means it’s a great investment. Using real-world examples like Rivian, Peloton, and GoPro, they illustrate why strong business fundamentals matter far more than popularity or hype. The conversation provides practical questions every would-be investor should ask and reveals why even boring businesses can outshine the flashiest brands. If you’ve ever been tempted to invest in a company just because you’re a fan, this episode is your playbook for making smarter decisions. Chapters(00:00) The Myth of Good Products as Good Investments(02:00) Business Models and Competitive Dynamics(05:00) Private Investments and Direct Involvement(06:00) Assessing Profitability and Market Demand(08:00) Competitive Advantage and Market Moats(10:00) The Importance of Liking the Product Versus Business Fundamentals(13:00) Boring Businesses Can Be Top Investments(14:00) The Product as the Tip of the Iceberg Connect with Us• Call or text us: 626-862-0355• Website: https://www.athletefamilyoffice.com/• YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCc1NxpK21N1vKWEExC45YEA• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/awmcapital/• Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/awmcapital/• X: https://twitter.com/awmcapital• Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/awmcapital/

In this episode, we tackle the spectacular rise and dramatic fall of the Situational Awareness hedge fund, unpacking the real risks behind headline-making returns. Through memorable stories and market expertise, we break down the dangers of leverage, the pitfalls of chasing hot managers, and the hard truth about luck versus skill in investing. Tune in for candid insights on what it really takes to build wealth that lasts for generations and why the smartest plays are often the most disciplined. Chapters(00:00) The Rise and Fall of a Hedge Fund(02:00) The Dangers of Leverage and Concentration(06:00) Chasing Hot Managers and Returns(07:00) Long-Term Wealth versus Short-Term Outperformance(10:00) Luck versus Skill in Investing(13:00) Leverage: Risks and Real Estate(15:00) Building for the 1Hundred Year Family Connect with Us• Call or text us: 626-862-0355• Website: https://www.athletefamilyoffice.com/• YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCc1NxpK21N1vKWEExC45YEA• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/awmcapital/• Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/awmcapital/• X: https://twitter.com/awmcapital• Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/awmcapital/

In this episode, Justin Dyer and Mena Hanna set the stage for an in-depth conversation with former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger W. Ferguson Jr. The duo unpacks why inflation is at the heart of investing and how the Fed’s decisions ripple through every family’s financial playbook. With global stories, personal experience, and a closer look at Roger Ferguson’s unique journey in both markets and family legacy, this episode delivers expert insight for anyone looking to build and protect generational wealth. Tune in to discover how understanding the Fed and mastering purchasing power can shape your path as a 100-year family. Chapters(00:00) Introducing the Fed and Upcoming Interview(01:00) Why Inflation Drives Everything(02:37) Preserving Purchasing Power(04:19) Global Examples of Inflation’s Impact(05:24) The Fed’s Dual Mandate(07:00) Roger Ferguson’s Unique Perspective(08:00) Building the 100-Year Family Connect with Us• Call or text us: 626-862-0355• Website: https://www.athletefamilyoffice.com/• YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCc1NxpK21N1vKWEExC45YEA• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/awmcapital/• Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/awmcapital/• X: https://twitter.com/awmcapital• Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/awmcapital/

Join AWM Capital’s Justin Dyer and Mena Hanna as they break down the pivotal role of the Federal Reserve in shaping the U.S. economy. In this episode, the duo explores the origins, mandates, and evolving responsibilities of the Fed, using vivid analogies and real-world examples to illuminate complex topics like interest rates, inflation, and monetary policy. Whether you’re curious about how the Fed’s decisions ripple across investments and everyday life, or just want a clear, approachable take on economic headlines, this conversation offers sharp insights on why the Fed truly matters. Tune in to deepen your understanding of one of the world’s most influential financial institutions. Chapters(00:00) Why the Federal Reserve Matters(01:47) Origins and Purpose of the Fed(03:31) Evolution and the Gold Standard(05:00) The Fed’s Dual Mandate Explained(08:00) Structure of the Federal Reserve System(09:21) The Role of the Federal Open Market Committee(13:07) Impact of Interest Rates on Investors and the Economy Connect with Us• Call or text us: 626-862-0355• Website: https://www.athletefamilyoffice.com/• YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCc1NxpK21N1vKWEExC45YEA• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/awmcapital/• Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/awmcapital/• X: https://twitter.com/awmcapital• Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/awmcapital/

In this episode of AWM Insights, Chief Investment Officer Justin Dyer and Portfolio Manager Mena Hanna revisit the fundamentals of building a resilient, multi-generational investment portfolio. Using the “100-year home” analogy, they break down why bonds and fixed income form the bedrock of lasting family wealth, drawing parallels between solid financial foundations and future-proofing against life's surprises. The conversation offers engaging stories, practical wisdom, and a timely look at how decisions by the Federal Reserve can impact your long-term goals. If you’re looking for expert advice on safeguarding your wealth for generations, this episode delivers fresh perspective and actionable insights. Chapters(00:00) The Foundation of a 100-Year Portfolio(03:00) Importance of Building With Foresight(07:00) Flexibility and Adaptation Over Time(09:00) The Role of Interest Rates and Inflation(12:00) Federal Reserve's Influence on BondsConnect with Us• Call or text us: 626-862-0355• Website: https://www.athletefamilyoffice.com/• YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCc1NxpK21N1vKWEExC45YEA• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/awmcapital/• Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/awmcapital/• X: https://twitter.com/awmcapital• Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/awmcapital/